Edit: rugman11 has put together a really nice compilation of Alabama basketball's lineup data through the first 11 games this year. He's also added some nice analysis on the various lineup combinations and substitution patterns we've seen so far. A look at his work likely gives us a pretty good indication of what the playing rotation will look like as we get ready for conference play.

* * *

We're coming to the end of the non-conference season and I wanted to get one more five-man post in before doing a non-conference wrap-up post. With 11 games in the books (I haven't completed the Oklahoma State numbers yet) some trends are really starting to stand out. As always, the more in-depth discussion of five-man stats is here, but the important parts are:

1. We're using offensive and defensive efficiency in terms of points per possession. It's a lot easier to score 80 points per game when you have 80 possessions per game rather than 60. Looking at efficiency instead of raw points per game allows us to control for the pace at which a team plays.
2. The NCAA average for points per possession is 1.03.
3. I can not control for opponent quality. The real stat people can. So scoring 1 point per possession against the best defense in the country is the same as scoring 1 point per possession against the worst in these numbers.
4. Sample size matters, a lot. The more minutes a grouping has, the more accurate our conclusions will be.

With that out of the way, the charts for each game since Puerto Rico and a few others are after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

ed - serious alabama basketball knowledge bombs from the fanposts.

The first full week of the basketball season is through and we can start to make some sense of the five-man statistics.  For a more in-depth review of what five-man stats are and why we use them, click here, but the important parts to remember are:

1. We're using offensive and defensive efficiency in terms of points per possession.  It's a lot easier to score 80 points per game when you have 80 possessions per game rather than 60.  Looking at efficiency instead of raw points per game allows us to control for the pace at which a team plays.
2. The NCAA average for points per possession is 1.03.
3. I can not control for opponent quality.  The real stat people can.  So scoring 1 point per possession against the best defense in the country is the same as scoring 1 point per possession against the worst in these numbers.
4. Sample size matters, a lot.  The more minutes a grouping has, the more accurate our conclusions will be.
   

With that out of the way, the charts for each game from this past week and a few others are after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

I'm hoping to continue these posts throughout the year to track the quality of Alabama's five-man units throughout the season.  The reason for tracking five-man units is to look at how players perform in combination with each other, as opposed to isolating single player statistics or looking at the team as a whole. 

For the most part, I'll be looking at Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency (shown here as Points per Possession and Opposing Points per Possession).  To give you an idea of why they matter, I'll quote Burnt Orange Nation

Historically, the way we tend to evaluate basketball teams is to look at per game statistics.  For instance, we might look at the Big 12 statistics from last season and conclude Nebraska, who allowed 60.5 points per game, and Texas A&M, who allowed 61.3 points per game, were both better defensively than Texas, who allowed 62.2 points per the game.  The chief problem with this sort of analysis is that it ignores the pace at which these teams play.  Texas A&M played at an extremely slow pace last season, averaging 62.2 possessions per game.  Nebraska played slightly faster, averaging 63.6 possessions per game.  Of these three schools, Texas played at the fastest tempo, averaging 66.9 possessions per game.  Nebraska and Texas A&M were among the slowest-paced teams in all of Division I last year, whereas Texas' pace was pretty close to the Division I median of 66.6 possessions per game.

Per possession statistics help us to put all teams on an equal footing, no matter what tempo they play at.  A team that averages 70 possessions per game is likely going to both score and give up more points that a team that averages 60 possessions per game.  So when comparing two teams, we should look at how many points per possession each team scored and allowed, rather than simply comparing the per game statistics.

The NCAA average last season was 1.03 points per possession so, ideally, our offense will average better than a point per possession and our defense will average fewer than one point per possession.

I'll also be tracking +/- and +/- per 40.  +/-  is exactly like the hockey stat: Points scored less points allowed.  +/- per 40 is an attempt to determine how much Alabama would win (or lose) by if that particular unit played every minute of every game as well as they played when they were on the court.

Continue reading this post »

This has nothing to do with Alabama football, so if you're looking for that, move on.

I've been debating whether or not to post this for the last couple of weeks, but I decided that the wisdom of the masses is the best.  So I'm getting married this weekend and I'm looking for any advice that the married (or formerly married) folks on this board might have to offer.  Any advice about the day or the honeymoon or the time afterward would be greatly appreciated.  I know it may seem odd to ask this question on an Alabama blog, but the people here have always been relatively forthcoming about their personal lives and I know there's a great deal about married life that I don't yet know, so I'm asking you, the RBR readership, for any help you can give to make sure that my wedding and marriage are the best they can be.  Help a brother out, if you can.

We don't normally pay attention to golf around here, but with all of the hubbub recently with the softball team's trip to the Women's College World Series and the baseball team's forthcoming Regional, I thought I'd take the time to point out how well the Alabama men's golf team is doing at this week's National Championship. 

For those of you unfamiliar with the format the golf championship takes, here's a primer.  The first three days (Tuesday, Wednesday, and today) comprise a three round, stroke play tournament.  Each team fields five golfers, the worst score for each round is dropped and the rest of the scores are totaled.  After today, the top 8 teams will advance to a match play tournament, to be played over the weekend.

Currently, Alabama stands 5th at +4, seven shots behind leader Georgia Tech.  More importantly, the Tide are ten shots ahead of the 8th place team, meaning that, barring an epic collapse, we should make the final round of 8.  Additionally, three Bama golfers have a reasonable chance at the individual title.  LSU's John Peterson is currently the leader 5-under par, but Bud Cauley is four shots back, Cory Whitsett is five back, and Hunter Hamrick is six back.

The Alabama golfers tee off around noon today, and you can follow the team leaderboard here and the individual leaderboard here.

(*Updated Saturday, March 12th, 11:30 AM*)

Well, we’ve made it this far.  Through all of the trials and tribulations of this crazy year, we’ve reached the final week of the season with a legitimate chance at making the NCAA tournament.  We have a little work left to do of our own, but from here on out, pretty much every game has bubble implications.  Whether it’s rooting against teams looking to steal bids or for upsets of bubble teams, every game counts.  The Bracket Project currently has us projected as the second team out with 34 ballots out of a possible 85. 

This is one of my favorite sports weeks of the year, second only behind the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  The basketball world is about to go nuts for the next seven days.  There will be a dozen games each night and almost every single one will have both NCAA Tournament implications and bubble implications.  As such, I’m going to eschew the team-by-team format I used before and give you a breakdown of each conference tournament, letting you know whom to root for to win and whom to root for to lose.  Throughout the week I’ll update this post with winners and losers, new game information, and movement on the bubble.

Note:  Many of these games will be available on ESPN3, even if I have not noted them as such.  I’m working off of ESPN’s scores page, but it does not list some games that I know for certain will be on ESPN3.

Atlantic 10 

Locks:  Xavier Musketeers, Temple Owls

Bubble:  Richmond Spiders (23-7, 13-3, projected 11 seed)

(*Update 03/12*)  Richmond is close to a lock now, after making the A-10 semifinals.  With Xavier's loss, we really need Temple to win this tournament.

(*Update 03/09*)  No bubble teams played Tuesday night.  The A-10 tournament resumes Friday.  Richmond moved down to an 11 seed.

The Spiders are looking relatively safe after winning 11 of their final 13 games with losses only to tournament teams Xavier and Temple.  The only thing holding them back is a lack of quality wins outside their Thanksgiving-weekend upset of Purdue.

Rooting Interest:  Root for Xavier or Temple to win the entire tournament and against Richmond in their first game Friday night.  If Xavier or Temple get knocked out early, the Spiders would be preferable to anybody else winning, since they are very close to lock status anyway.

Semifinals:  St. Joseph's vs. Dayton (Sat 12:00, CBS CS), Richmond vs. Temple (Sat 2:30, CBS CS)

ACC

Locks: North Carolina, Duke

Bubble:  Florida State Seminoles (projected 9 seed), Virginia Tech Hokies (19-10, 9-7, projected 12 seed), Boston College Eagles (19-11, 9-7, projected 12 seed), Clemson Tigers (20-10, 9-7, projected 12 seed)

(*Update 03/12*)  Fucking Virginia Tech.  At least BC got bombed.

(*Update 03/11*)  BC and VT won as expected, which means we could really use a win by Florida State today.

It has been chaos in the ACC the last two weeks.  Florida State seemed like a lock until falling to Maryland and UNC in the past week.  Virginia Tech seemed like a lock after beating Duke, but losing to BC and Clemson in back-to-back games to close out the regular season has them riding the bubble’s edge again.  I thought BC was done after losing 7 out of 10 including a nine-point home loss to Miami, but they’ve feasted on weaklings and the Hokies to get back in the mix.  Clemson improved its standing in the last week by not getting destroyed by Duke and beating Virginia Tech.  The ACC’s bubble has been crazy and, frankly, all of these teams could use at least one more win, none more so than BC and VT, since they were unable to earn first-round byes.  The Eagles have a rematch with Wake, whom they just destroyed by 16 and the Hokies drew Georgia Tech.  The good news is that, even if BC and VT win, they’ll play Clemson and Florida State, respectively, in the quarterfinals, which could make for two de facto NCAA Tournament play-in games.

Rooting Interest – Root for UNC or Duke to win the whole tournament and for these four teams to fall out early.  It’s guaranteed that only two can make it to the tournament semifinals, but a run by any to the final would likely separate them from the rest of the bubble riff-raff. 

Semifinals:  Clemson vs. North Carolina (Sat 12:00, ESPN), Virginia Tech vs. Duke (Sat 2:00, ESPN)

Continue reading this post »

I have to warn you, things are starting to get ugly.  Of the 24 brackets added or updated on Wednesday and Thursday, we were not in a single one.  Still, The Bracket Project currently has us ranked in 32 of the 78 brackets, meaning we are officially the last team in right now.  The only reason that is still the case is because everybody around us is losing as well.  A win against Georgia tomorrow is an absolute must and, even then, we’re going to need to win at least one more game and get some help along the way.  Hopefully Clemson’s, Colorado’s, Baylor’s, and Southern Miss’s losses this week will help keep us in front of them, but I just don’t know.  Shit has hit the fan, folks.  But, thankfully for our sanity, it’ll all be sorted out in a week.

Conference Tournaments

Conference tourneys are continuing this week, so I’ll give a quick roundup of each one and who to root for.  Some of these smaller conferences have at-large contenders, so it’s very important that those teams win their tournaments and not allow multiple teams to make it in.

Big Sky (March 5, 8-9)

Nobody here is an at-large possibility.  The tournament winner will likely end up with a 16 seed.

Rooting Interest – None.  This is a one-bid league.

Colonial Athletic Association (March 4-7)

George Mason and Old Dominion are tournament locks while VCU is a deep bubble team.  Nobody else in the conference is a tournament contender, so we need desperately for GMU or ODU to take this tournament.

Rooting Interest - Root FOR George Mason and Old Dominion.  Root against VCU and everbody else.

Mid-American Athletic Conference (March 4-7)

Conference leader Fairfield’s RPI is worse than ours.  There’s no way they can lose another game and still go dancing.

Rooting Interest – None.  This is a one-bid league.

Southern Conference (March 4-7)

Like with Fairfield, there is no way for conference leader Charleston to lose to another Southern Conference team and still be on the bubble.

Rooting Interest – None.  This is a one-bid league.

Sun Belt Conference (March 5-8)

View MAAC and Southern Conference.  Copy, paste, rinse and repeat.

Rooting Interest – None.  This is a one-bid league.

Summit League (March 5-8)

Oakland is a curious case.  They have an RPI in the 50s but the rest of the conference is so terrible that losing in the tournament would probably be too much of a hit to their resume.

Rooting Interest – Still, to ward off the 0.1% chance of Oakland earning an at-large bid, let’s just hope they win the conference tournament.

West Coast Conference (March 4-7)

There are two potential at-large teams here: Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga.  They’re both sitting on double-byes, so the most likely result would have them meeting in the conference finals.  The best case scenario has one team falling in the semifinals and the other team winning it all.

Rooting Interest – Pull for Saint Mary’s to win the tournament and Gonzaga to lose early.

Ivy League (March 4-5)

No conference tournament here, but Princeton and Harvard will meet tomorrow in a game that will likely decide who gets the automatic bid.  I don’t think there are any real at-large possibilities since Harvard lost last weekend.

Rooting Interest – None.  This is probably a one-bid league.

Continue reading this post »

Okay, so last Saturday kind of sucked.  The Tide’s tournament hopes took a hit.  But, thankfully, a number of teams helped us out by laying eggs of their own.  As it stands now, we are perched precariously on the edge and will likely need a little help to make the NCAA tourney.  The Bracket Project has us seeded in 39 out of 75 ballots with an average seed of 11.  Thankfully, the bubble is starting to firm up, with a sizable gap growing between the teams in the tournament and those on the outside looking in.  The current threshold for an at-large bid is 32 ballots.  For those of you paying attention, that means we are projected to be the second-to-last team in, with only Minnesota taking a bigger hit this weekend than us.  Also, the new bracket sees a lot of separation between in and out, with the same distance (11 brackets) between Alabama and the first team out, and the first team out and the seventh team out.

Conference Tournaments –

Conference tourneys are starting this week, so I’ll give a quick roundup of each one and who to root for.  Some of these smaller conferences have at-large contenders, so it’s very important that those teams win their tournaments and not allow multiple teams to make it in.

America East Conference (March 3, 5-6) –

The American East tournament kicks off with the 8-9 game on Thursday, but conference champion Vermont’s 22-7 record will keep them out of at-large consideration, mostly thanks to their 219th ranked schedule (yesterday’s loss to Boston won’t help either).

Rooting Interest – None.  This is a one-bid league.

Atlantic Sun Conference (March 2-5) –

Belmont is the team to watch here.  Their 27-4 record and 53 RPI make them a DEEP sleeper, with one bracket seeding them as high as ninth.  The rest of their conference is pretty terrible, though, so a loss in the tournament would likely end any hope they had.  I feel like I should point out that, despite all of the “overrated” non-BCS schools Matt discussed on Saturday, Belmont is actually underrated in the RPI by 30 spots, according to basketball guru Ken Pomeroy.  He has them as the 20th best team in the country. 

Rooting Interest – Belmont has like a 0.5% chance of earning an at-large bid, but I’d prefer that chance to be zero.  Pull for the Bruins.

Big South Conference (March 1, 3, 5) –

Coastal Carolina is 26-4, but their absurd 295th ranked schedule puts their RPI in the 90s and gives them no chance at an at-large bid.

Rooting Interest – None.  This is a one-bid league.

Horizon League (March 1, 4-5, 8) –

Here’s where things start to get interesting.  Butler is currently ranked as the last 12 seed and Cleveland State is the first team out right now.  UW-Milwaukee is probably playing the best basketball right now, but their triple-digit RPI means they will need to win the conference tournament to make the big show.  I’ll cover the bubble teams’ games in greater detail later on, but suffice it to say that we want one of them to win the tournament and the other to lose early.

Rooting Interest – As the second seed, Butler has a double-bye to the semifinals while Cleveland State is forced to play in the first round.  Best case scenario has CSU losing out early with the Bulldogs earning the automatic bid.

Missouri Valley Conference (March 3-6) –

Another bubble-filled tournament here.  Missouri State beat Wichita State on Saturday to win the regular season crown.  Both teams are still riding the bubble, with Missouri State as the top 13 seed and Wichita as the third team out.  The best-case scenario is probably for Missouri State to claim the tournament championship as well.

Rooting Interest – Pull for the Bears to win, and the Shockers to fall early.

Northeast Conference (March 3, 6, 9) –

This is another pretty terrible conference and regular season champion Long Island is no risk for an at-large bid.

Rooting Interest – None.  This is a one-bid league.

Ohio Valley Conference (March 2-5) –

Barring some stunning upsets in other conference tournaments, the OVC winner should end up with a 16-seed.

Rooting Interest – None.  This is a one-bid league.

Patriot League (March 2, 6, 11) –

To give you an idea of how bad the Patriot League is, the third-place team, Holy Cross, finished with a 7-7 conference record and a 1-13 non-conference record.

Rooting Interest – None.  This is a one-bid league.

Continue reading this post »

ed. - bumped from the fanposts.  Big thanks to rugman11 for doing such a good job on these.

I apologize for the lateness of this weekend’s bubble watch, but I left my fully-written first draft on a flash drive at work, so this is being written over three hours at my fiancée’s place.  As usual, these are the 21 teams (plus a couple of interesting teams to watch) with whom the Tide are competing for the 14 seeds in the 10-12 range.  All current standings are determined by The Bracket Project which has collected data from 69 different bracket predictions to create one mass projection.  The Tide are currently ranked as the 32nd team in (of 37 at-large bids), averaging an 11th seed, and projected to be in on 44 ballots.  The current threshold for an at-large bid is 40 ballots.

Movin’ On Up –

Nobody

10 Seeds –

Kansas State Wildcats (19-9, 7-6 Big XII):  #21 Missouri (Sat 11:00, ESPN)

Last Week (10); This Week (10)

The Wildcats have hit their stride, winning five of their last six including a huge win over top-ranked Kansas.  I think they’re safe at this point, but they still have tough games coming up against Missouri and Texas.  Losses in those games could put Kansas State in jeopardy if they lose either their regular season finale against Iowa State, or their first round game in the Big 12 tournament.

Rooting Interest:  Missouri’s a lock for the tourney, so let’s hope the Wildcats fall.

Georgia Bulldogs (18-9, 7-6 SEC):  South Carolina (Sat 6:00, ESPN3)

Last Week (10); This Week (10)

The Bulldogs missed their chance to seal an at-large bid against Florida last night and with USCe, LSU, and Alabama left, I don’t know that they can.  They’re still probably safe, barring losses to both USCe and LSU, but they’re unlikely to move any higher at this point.

Rooting Interest:  I’m still not sure what to make of this, so pick whomever you want.

Marquette Golden Eagles (17-11, 8-7 Big East):  Providence (Sun 3:00, ESPN3)

Last Week (11); This Week (10)

Big win last night for the Eagles, as they toppled #15 UCONN on the road.  In fact, it was their first win against an RPI top-100 team away from Milwaukee.   I would say they’ve locked up an at-large bid, but with games still against Providence and Seton Hall, they have a long way they could fall.  I’m going to say they’re probably safe but, at the very least, Bama could pass them up for a higher seed, depending on how the wins and losses fall.

Rooting Interest:  If Providence beat us, I would hope they can beat Marquette.

Michigan State Spartans (16-11, 8-7 Big Ten):  #8 Purdue (Sun 12:00, ESPN)

Last Week (11); This Week (10)

Did you know only four Big Ten teams have winning conference records?  Neither did I.  The Spartans are the fourth team in a three-team conference which, at this point, puts them in a very precarious position.  Beating Illinois last weekend helped their case, but they probably need one more decent win to feel safe, either against Purdue this weekend or in the Big Ten tournament. 

Rooting Interest:  Purdue’s a lock for the Dance, so pull for the Boilermakers.

Continue reading this post »

ed.- Bumped from the fanposts

Well, it’s that time.  With only three weekends to go before the SEC Tournament, the Tide are poised to make a serious run at the NCAA Tournament.  Unfortunately, our early-season performance has landed us squarely (and likely permanently) on the bubble.   As such, it’s time to start scoreboard watching.  Obviously Alabama needs to keep winning if they want to make the tourney, but it doesn’t hurt to have some other rooting interests along the way as well.  So here I present the 21 teams with whom the Tide are competing for the 14 seeds in the 10-12 range.  All current standings are determined by The Bracket Project which has collected data from 66 different bracket predictions to create one mass projection.  The Tide are currently ranked as the second team out, averaging an 11th seed, but projected to be in on only 28 ballots.  The current threshold for an at-large bid is 37 ballots.

Movin’ on Up –

#23 Utah State Aggies (25-3, 12-1 WAC):  Off

Last Week (10); This Week (9)

Utah State got its first big win this past weekend, beating #23 Saint Mary’s 75-65 on Saturday night.  With that, the last big test for the Aggies has been passed and they should be able to cruise from here.  Still, with three regular season games left before the WAC tournament, there is the chance to fall back again.

Rooting Interest:  None.  The Aggies are off this week before hosting Idaho next Saturday night.

Old Dominion Monarchs (22-6, 12-4 CAA):  @ James Madison (Thu 6:00, ESPNU)

Last Week (10); This Week (9)

Ask and ye shall receive, sort of.  I hoped for an ODU victory over Cleveland State this weekend to knock the Vikings off the bubble and CSU ends up moving from a 13 to a 12 seed while still projected to win the Horizon League.  Weird.  Either way, ODU would have to completely collapse and lose its final two games and its opening game of the CAA tournament to even sniff the edge of the bubble.

Rooting Interest:  Whatever.  Barring an SEC tournament victory, Bama has no chance of passing ODU.

10 Seeds –

St. Mary’s Gaels (22-6, 10-2 WCC):  Gonzaga (Thu 10:00, ESPN2)

Last Week (9); This Week (10)

The Gaels dropped their best chance at a good win this weekend, falling by ten to Utah State.  Normally, this wouldn’t be a big deal, except that it came on the heels of a loss to terrible San Diego (6-21) and in front of a conference-deciding game with Gonzaga.  Only two regular season games left for St. Mary’s means that there aren’t many chances to drop, but if they do lose their final two games, there will be few positive arguments left for them.

Rooting Interest:  Given St. Mary’s current status as the leaders of the WCC and Gonzaga’s status in the Next Four Out, a Gael win could knock the Bulldogs off the bubble.  Pull for St. Mary’s.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-9, 6-8 Big Ten):  Michigan State (Tue 8:00)

Last Week (9); This Week (10)

A loss to middling Penn State this weekend dropped the Gophers back to the bubble.  With three games remaining against Michigan, Northwestern, and Penn State, the Spartans represent the last chance for a good Gopher win, something that becomes more and more important, the further below .500 Minnesota falls in conference play.

Rooting Interest:  Minnesota is currently a 10, Michigan State is currently an 11.  Go Gophers!

Kansas State Wildcats (18-9, 6-6 Big XII):  @ Nebraska (Wed 8:00, ESPNU)

Last Week (11); This Week (10)

It was a big week for the Wildcats as they followed a 16-point home upset over the top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks with a 15-point home demolition of the Sooners.  With a 31 RPI, it’s going to be tough to keep Kansas State out of the tournament, especially since their only games remaining against unranked teams are a road game with bubble-ish Nebraska and Big XII cellar dweller Iowa State.

Rooting Interest:  Nebraska’s victory over second-ranked Texas this weekend has put them back into the bubble talk.  This is another tough call because Kansas State has a good enough résumé that it’s tough to see them falling far enough back for the Tide to catch up but, at the same time, Nebraska is far enough back of Bama, that it’s going to be difficult for them to catch us.  We’ll call it a wash.  Root for whomever you want.

Georgia Bulldogs (18-8, 7-5 SEC):  @ #13 Florida (Thu 6:00, ESPN)

Last Week (10); This Week (10)

Georgia’s 69-63 win over Tennessee was a mixed bag for the Tide.  On one hand, if the Tide hope to pass Georgia in the NCAA tourney pecking order it would be nice if they lost a few games.  On the other hand, as Matt pointed out, the Bulldogs represent the best chance remaining for the Tide to beat a tournament team.  I guess, then, we’ll just call it a draw.

Rooting Interest:  If we didn’t know who to root for between Georgia and Tennessee, it’s just the same between the Bulldogs and the Gators.  Personally, I’ll be rooting for the Dawgs, as that puts Bama one step closer to an SEC Championship.  If you wanted to pull for Florida, though, I wouldn’t blame you.

Continue reading this post »

ed. - bumped from fanposts, good stuff to keep in mind over the weekend.

Well, it’s that time.  With only three weekends to go before the SEC Tournament, the Tide are poised to make a serious run at the NCAA Tournament.  Unfortunately, our early-season performance has landed us squarely (and likely permanently) on the bubble.   As such, it’s time to start scoreboard watching.  Obviously Alabama needs to keep winning if they want to make the tourney, but it doesn’t hurt to have some other rooting interests along the way as well.  So here I present the 21 teams with whom the Tide are competing for the 14 seeds in the 10-12 range.  All current standings are determined by The Bracket Project which has collected data from 63 different bracket predictions to create one mass projection.  The Tide are currently ranked as the fourth team out, averaging an 11th seed, but projected to be in on only 19 ballots.

10 seeds -

Old Dominion Monarchs (21-6, 12-4 CAA):  vs. Cleveland State (Sun)

Old Dominion is in pretty good shape with an RPI of 31 and a recent win over precarious bubble team VCU.  Barring losses by the Monarchs to James Madison and William & Mary in their last three games (unlikely is an understatement), the Tide will have a tough time passing ODU by season’s end.

Rooting Interest:  It’s Bracket Busters time, so the Monarchs are hosting the Horizon League’s Cleveland State on Sunday afternoon (12:00 ESPN2).  Cleveland State is currently projected to win the Horizon League, but if they don’t, they would be in the next four out, so our best bet here is for ODU to get a decent home win and, hopefully, knock the Vikings off of the bubble.

#24 Utah State Aggies (24-3, 12-1 WAC):  @ #23 St. Mary’s (Sat)

The Aggies are a very interesting case and, apparently, the subject of much discussion at the faux-selection summit, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.  Utah State is currently ranked in the Top 25 and possesses an RPI of 29.  But the 167th ranked schedule is troubling to the say the least.  There will be little help coming from their conference either as no other team has more than 14 wins, so their only remaining chance for a good win will come this weekend at St. Mary’s.

Rooting Interest:  The Aggies are the only WAC team with even the slightest chance of earning an at-large bid so, obviously, we want desperately for them to win their conference tournament.  However, in terms of regular season action (and this is the case with all of these one- or two-bid conference leaders), we want them to lose now, so in the event that they don’t win their conference tournament, we may still have a chance to leapfrog them.  That said, St. Mary’s is currently projected as an eight seed, so the Gaels are the team to root for Saturday night (8:00 ESPN2), even if it won’t damage the Aggies much.

Georgia Bulldogs (17-8 6-5 SEC):  @ Tennessee (Sat)

The Bulldogs did not have a good week, missing their chance for a résumé-defining win against Vandy and needing to block a potential game-tying three against the Gamecocks after allowing USCe to score only 9 points in the first half.  Still, like most bubble teams their RPI is higher than Bama’s (37) and they’ll need to fall a ways before we can pass them.  That said, they still have road games left with Tennessee, Florida, and the Tide, so the opportunity is there.

Rooting Interest:  As much as it pains me to say, the Vols are basically a tourney lock with a top-25 RPI and the toughest schedule in the country.  Gotta root for Tennessee (12:00 CBS).

Marquette Golden Eagles (15-11, 6-7 Big East):  vs. Seton Hall (Sat)

The Golden Eagles would be the eleventh Big East team in the tourney, which tells you more about the weakness of the other power conferences this year than the greatness of that particular one.  Thankfully, Marquette still has three opportunities left to crap the bed with a home-and-home against Seton Hall and a visit from Providence.  If UCONN and Cincinnati can avoid losing to the Eagles and they pick up one or two of those bad losses, we might have a chance.

Rooting Interest:  Aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, Matey (8:00 ESPN3)!

Continue reading this post »

I've been playing NCAA Football 11 very irregularly for the past couple of weeks so I finally finished the 2010 season in my first dynasty season yesterday and, as always, was very intrigued by the results of the season.  I was not playing as Alabama, but the Tide still managed to run the table and beat a similarly undefeated Florida State team for the national title.  Thankfully ALSO undefeated Rutgers(!) lost in their bowl game to avoid an Auburn 2004 situation.  Some very interesting things came up over the course of the season and I'm interested to read about what has happened for other players. 

• Alabama went 14-0, beating Florida in the SEC Championship Game and Florida State in the BCS Title game.
• It was a down year for the SEC overall, with only three teams (Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee) finishing in the final Top 25.
• Greg McElroy threw for over 3,700 yards and 30 TDs.
• Julio Jones was injured early, leading to 900+ yard seasons for Darius Hanks and Marquis Maze.
• Mark Ingram suffered a season-ending injury very early on, leading to...
• Trent Richardson rushing for more than 1,600 yards and becoming the fourth consecutive sophomore to win the Heisman trophy.