SB Nation User Blog: rwperu34

Top 58 Position Prospect Stockwatch

rwperu34 — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 00:42:59 -0000

Here is the original list. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/4/3/389462/my-top-58-position-prospec

Here is the methedology. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/2/7/132252/7297

I should note that I am a big fan of sample size, so my opinions are going to be very fluid right now. At the end of the season, I will do more research and check the overall body of work for the players and have a complete list for you next April....after my fantasy draft.

I'll list the players with their old rating, then make a comment, then in some cases, I'll give an estimated new rating. If I do, that will be as of today, and not a guess as to what the rating will be heading into next season.

1. Jay Bruce, 2. Evan Longoria, 10.0-I'll lump these two together since they were so close at the top. Nothing has really changed with either of these guys. They both look like they have a very good chance to become superstars.

3. Colby Rasmus, 10.0-Giving him a straight ten was a little aggressive in the preseason. He was really boderline, and I tossed it on him to separate him from Maybin. Then I would have slid the pitchers in between Maybin and McCutchen. In reality, they were all very close for me at the begining of the season. He hasn't slipped much in my eyes, but since I overrated him heading into the season, I'd say he's down. New rating, 9.5.

4. Cameron Maybin, 9.5-I can say I'm more worried about Maybin now than I was heading into the season. That's not to say that his stock is down. He's hitting for more power at a higher level, which helps offset the extra Ks. still got a pretty high floor to go with his super high ceiling, and that's what this rating is all about. Overall, a disappointment, but not enough to lower his rating.

5. Andrew McCutchen, 9.5-His stock is definitely up. If I had to bet on who would be the #1 prospect heading into next year, McCutchen would be my guy. It's not that his stock is up that much. It's that he was very close to Maybin and Rasmus in my mind. The real issue with that bet would be the fact that McCutchen probably won't be eligible for prospect lists next season.

6. Andy LaRoche, 9.5-Hopefully he won't be eligible for these lists next year, because I'm getting sick of rating him. Injuries have held him back and allowed Blake Dewitt to catch, if not pass him. He's still got a good ceiling and he's still a good bet to produce when given the chance, so I can't see knocking him down from a performance perspective. It's starting to look more and more like he might deserve the label of injury prone, which would be a problem.

7. Daric Barton, 9.5-Nothing suprising here. He's young and struggling in his first big league season. He's already turned it around a little, but still has a ways to go, especially in the power department. His ceiling isn't super high, but he's young and already an average big league 1b, so I woudln't drop him at all.

8. Jeff Clement, 9.5-This was the softest 9.5 I gave out. He mashed AAA, struggled in the show, and had the organazation give up on him in the short term. It's looking more and more like he's going to be a 1b/dh in the Show which hurts his stock He'd still rate at least a 9.0 if he'd start now. New Rating, 9.0

9. Brandon Wood, 9.0-I rated him as a SS, and I still rate him as a SS. You put Mark Reynolds at short with passable to average defense, and that's a very very good player. He really needs to be traded ASAP, because as a 3B/UT, I am not as impressed.

10. Reid Brignac, 9.0-He's doing as good at AAA as he did at AA, plays a premium position, and will be big league ready when next year's list is released. His stock is definitely on the rise, as some of the risk is gone. There's still a lot of ways his career could turn out, but when you average it all out, this is an insanely valuable commoditiy. Only a few things need to brake his way for Brignac to be #1 on the list next season. New Rating, 9.5

11. Joey Votto, 12. Jacoby Ellsbury, 9.0-If you wrote the script, would it have turned out any different for these two? Both have a very narrow range of outcomes, mostly good, with medium ceilings.

13. Carlos Gomez, 9.0-The second we got the extra information of him winning the starting CF job he moved up to a 9.5. That meant he was ready, and he hasn't disapointed. He's already an average big leaguer with a superstar ceiling. A straight 10.0 could be argued here. New Rating, 9.5

14. Carlos Gonzalez, 9.0-Rated as a RF, I don't really think we underestimated him. There are a lot of directions that this could go in the long run. Still, his getting called up so quickly has to be a good sign even if he hadn't really warranted it based on his on field production. We're dealing with big tools and projection here, so the callup will definitely increase his value some. He'd be a boderline guy, but I'll leave him at 9.0 for now.

15. Chris Marrero, 9.0-When I rated him, I did as a guy that would be starting the season at AA. The fact that he wasn't good enough in spring to get that promotion and the fact that his indicators are basically the same equals a downgrade. I still like his ceiling with his combination of power/contact, but he's furthur away than I originally thought. He'll probably be a 9.0 on next year's list, but to warrant a 9.0 right now he'd need to have a 9.5 expectation. New Rating, 8.5

16. Jordan Schafer, 9.0-Busted for PED use and losing 50 games of development to suspension is going to hurt a players ratings. New Rating, 8.0.

17. Chin-Lung Hu, 9.0-Nothing has changed.Big league star with the glove, big time questions with the bat. He'll be an assest even if he doesn't hit, so he's got a very high floor.

18. Wladimir Balentien, 9.0-Going through a little bit of an adjustment period at the big league level, but still has the power potential and made decent enough contact in the minors.

19. Travis Snider, 8.5-He ended up being the guy getting the AA promotion. The Ks are in the really worried zone, but the power is excellent. What his rating is heading into next season is going to depend greatly on how the rest of this season plays out, but he could/should be one of the top ten prospects. New Rating, 9.0

20. Steven Pearce, 8.5-25 year olds that lose power and whiff more are in do or die mode. Pearce gets a little bit of a mulligan because he was a four year college player, but he really needs to assert himself in the second half or he'll fall completely off the radar. New Rating, 7.5

21. Matt LaPorta, 8.5-His bat is big league ready and the Brewers aren't moving back to the AL anytime soon. He's really wasting time in the minors, but there isn't a whole lot the Brewers can do. Should be in the top 10 next season. New Rating, 9.0

22. Ian Stewart, 8.5-Another guy that doesn't have anything left to do in the minors but is kind of stuck. If he could actually play 2b, that would be a huge boost to his value.

23. Fernando Martinez, 8.5-He's basically the same player he was last season. That means he's all projection and little performance, which is OK when you're 19, even if you are in AA.

24. Elvis Andrus, 8.5-Another player that an insane ceiling that makes up most of his value. He's a darkhorse to be the #1 prospect and could easily make the top 10. His K rate remained stable, although his walk rate dipped. Regardless, he's a very low risk player due to the speed and defense. Heck, he's probably a fringe starter at the big league level right now. It'd be nice to see him spank a few HR and cut down on his Ks, but it's not a need for him to be a good big leaguer. New Rating, 9.0

25. Carlos Triunfel, 8.5-Still extremely young, still doesn't K very often, still hasn't hit a professional home run.

26. Desmond Jennings, 8.5-The injury does more to hurt his case than the quick start does to help it.

27. Matt Wieters, 8.5-The Orioles drive me nuts. Wieters should have been in AA a month ago, if not to start the season. I don't really know how to read this. Is it his defense? It sure isn't his bat. Still, with his age and pedigree, he really hasn't helped his case all that much. There's still a chance he might not be able to rake at AA right away and there's still a chance that his glove will keep him from being a big league catcher. I'd say he's got the most volatility of any player in the minors, possibly ranking anywhere between #1 and #20 next season. I guess I'll raise his grade because he should be in AA, even though he isn't. New Rating, 9.0

28. Nate Schierholtz, 8.5-I didn't really expect him to improve, and he hasn't. He's just left off in a roster crunch by a team that has made some bad decisions in the past. If it were me, Randy Winn would have been traded for a twelve pack of Keystone Lite already. The MLB development of Schieholtz is more valuable than any increase in Winn's value with his hot start, let alone the salary relief.

29. Scott Moore, 8.5-Another guy that's about as good as he's going to get. It looked like a useful major league piece coming into the year, but that might not be the case anymore. New Rating, 7.5

30. Chris Davis, 8.5-A bunch of power and a bunch of Ks. Nothing has changed expect the scenery. If Davis manhandles AAA like he has the rest of the minors, he's got a shot to be #1 on the list next season. Even if he doesn't, he'll be in or around the top ten. New Rating, 9.0

31. Trevor Plouffe, 8.5-If you're going to be bad enough in your teams eyes to get sent back to the same level, try and improve, not get worse. He's age appropriate now, opposed to being young. There's still a good chance he'll be a contributor down the line, but his stock has definitely fallen. New Rating, 8.0

32. Chris Nelson, 8.5-Seems to have lost his power and his speed. Since he's not really a SS, he needs to hit. New Rating, 8.0

33. Brett Lillibridge, 8.5-Now we're just hoping he can turn into Julio Lugo. He's looking more like the 2007-2008 Lugo than the guy that was useful from 2003-2006. New Rating, 8.0

34. Blake Dewitt, 8.5-Sort of underlooked in the preseason, presumably for his lack of tools. He's a big riser with the promotion to the Show and the subsequent performance. Maybe he turns into the next Joe Randa, which is a nice little piece, especially since he's that right now. There's still a little upside too. New Rating, 9.0

35. Eric Campbell, 8.5-HIs performance has been good enought to earn this rating, but new information (ie the Braves didn't move him to AA) is going to knock him down. New Rating, 8.0

36. Angel Villalona, 8.5-Not a whole lot has changed. He's pretty much performing as expected at the level we expected. His big rise will probably start next season.

37. Austin Jackson, 8.0-Kind of a mixed bag at AA, but when you add it all together, it's about the same as last season. Since he was a boderline 8.5 and he's doing it a level higher, I'll raise his rating. If he can spank a few more HR, he's got a chance to be in the top 10 next season. New Rating, 8.5.

38. Neil Walker, 8.0-I actually botched this one in the preseason. I mis-typed his level by a year, and that makes a big difference. When I redid that, his rating came out similar to the boderline guys in the 9.0 range. He's striking out more this year, but due to a recent tear, he's hitting with more power. I'll leave him here for now until we have more information. New Rating, 9.0

39. Chase Headley, 8.0-Nothing has changed but he's doing it a level higher. New Rating, 8.5

40. Josh Reddick, 8.0-He goes to the Cal League and his power increases? No way!

41. Aaron Cunningham, 8.0-Suffered an injury in the preseason. Now he's back at AA and hitting with less power and less contact. Still a good chance to be a big leaguer, but his 2008 has hurt his value. New Rating, 7.5

42. Jed Lowrie, 8.0-Still strikes out too often for a guy with his power potential and still isn't a shortstop. AAA doesn't seem to be making a difference and he does have 42 good big league PA, so his stock is up. New Rating, 8.5

43 J.R. Towles, 8.0-Complete flop so far. Young catchers are risky and prone to this type of thing. No giving up allowed.

44. Geovany Soto, 8.0-Oops. I'll readily admit that I thought there was a very good chance 2007 was a fluke. It definitely isn't. I'm not ready to annoint him the best catcher in the bigs, but he's a star already. New Rating, 10.0

45. Chris Lubanski, 8.0-It turns out this guy isn't very good. Evidently there was a physical reason for this picked up by scouts. I was slow to the party. New Rating, 6.0

46. Chris Carter (Oak), 8.0-Power. Check. Strikeouts. Check. Walks. Check. TTO slugger really needs to be a bopper to make it, but certianly has the promise.

47. Matt Antonelli, 8.0-Laying a stinker across the board at AAA. Still young enough to rebound, and might be in SD sooner rather than later regardless. New Rating, 7.5

48. German Duran, 8.0-At least he's laying his stinker in the Show.

49. NIcholas Weglarz, 8.0-Lost some power at A+, but according to reports, that's more likely a slump than a loss of skill. Another TTO type that needs to bop to make it.

50. Ryan Royster, 8.0-This guy needs to make up his mind on how much power he's going to show. New Rating, 7.0

51. Kyle Blanks, 8.0-Another who has lost some power as he climbs the ladder and leaves the Cal League. He's made up for it with a massive improvement in contact and walk rate. If he can go on a tear in the second half in HR, he could easily be a big time sleeper heading into next season.

52. Tyler Colvin, 8.0-On the bright side, he's improved his walk rate by 500%. That comes at the price of power though. For now, I'll assume he's working on his game and is a true CF and leave his grade unchanged.

53. Mike Moustakas, 8.0-Everything looks good in his full season debut. I wonder if the Royals would't be better served just moving him to RF now and letting his bat develop?

54. Sean Rodriguez, 8.0-He's got some value to a team that can use him at SS. I just don't know if the Angels are that team.

55. Joshua Rodriguez, 8.0-A little old to be struggling in AA. He was high risk medium reward, and the results are not good. New Rating, 7.0

56. Taylor Green, 8.0-You've got to like the combination of K/BB/HR. I don't really know anything about this guy other than the numbers, so I'll reserve judgement. He looks a lot like Blake Dewitt did last year.

57. Billy Rowell, 8.0-Still very young for his level, but since he'll need to hit his way to the Show, at some point he'll need to do something with the wood.

58. Bryan Anderson, 8.0-Everything looks the same, but he's in AAA now. His value is really going to be tied up in his presumably good defense, because he doesn't look like he'll hit a ton. New Rating, 8.5

Neil Walker-A top 58 mistake

rwperu34 — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 06:34:29 -0000

A few weeks ago I released my top 58 position prospects http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/4/3/389462/my-top-58-position-prospec, as I had them ranked in early Febuary.

There was a major mistake regarding Neil Walker. I had him ranked at #38 with a rating of 8.0. I made a typo regarding his level, which hurt his ARL, which hurt his prospect status. Once I put in the correct level, his new rating would be 9.0 and his ranking would be somewhere between 16-19.

The reason I found the typo is I've got Dewitt and Walker on my minors reserve, and one of them will have to go, more likely sooner than later. As I was researching the stats and looking at my list, I noticed that Walker's level was incorrect. That's a big deal. Dewitt has closed the gap a little, but in early Febuary, Walker had a clear edge.

I'm going to try and hold on to both as long as possible. One thing that's helping out is, very little qulaity pitching has emerged in my league.

My Top 58 Position Prospects

rwperu34 — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 21:20:55 -0000

NOTICE; I will not reply to questions regarding Jed Lowrie, Chase Headley, Snider vs Marrero, or pitchers. My feeling on the first four players is well documented on this site. Pitchers value deserves a thread of it's own. Other than that, fire away.

I was going to release this before the season. I released http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/2/7/132252/7297 this post to give an idea of how I look at things, which lead me to find out that people in my league read this site, so I had to scale back my posting until after my draft.

I'm going to release the preseason list, which was finished in early Febuary. I'll make comments where needed. Keep in mind, ranking carries more weight at the top of the list, rating is carries more weight at the bottom of the list.

1. Jay Bruce, cf, 10.0

2. Evan Longoria, cf, 10.0

3. Colby Rasmus, cf, 10.0

I went back and forth between Bruce and Longoria, but ultimately decided to go with Bruce's youth. Rasmus is pretty clear at #3 for me. Joba and Clay would slide in right here in some order.

4. Cameron Maybin, cf, 9.5

5. Andrew McCutchen, cf, 9.5

I think people forget that 'Cutch was a 20 year old that played a full season at AA. When you look at his numbers in that context and factor in his athleticism, you come up with an elite prospect.

6. Andy Laroche, 3b, 9.5

7. Daric Barton, 1b, 9.5

LaRoche was still young for his level last year. The injury and the emergence of DeWitt would push him down a few spots. Barton looks like the second coming of the current Todd Helton. He's relatively safe, and I have a hard time writing off a super high ceiling for the #2 age-relative-to-league guy last year.

8. Jeff Clement, c, 9.5

9. Brandon Wood, ss, 9.0

10. Reid Brignac, ss, 9.0

I rate Wood as an average deffensively SS. Obviously as a 3b his value takes a hit.

11. Joey Votto, 1b, 9.0

12. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf, 9.0

Two "safe" prospects with limited upside.

13. Carlos Gomez, cf, 9.0-Moves up to #4 with an epiphany and the starting CF job.

14. Carlos Gonzalez, rf, 9.0

15. Chris Marrero, 1b, 9.0

16. Jordan Schafer, cf, 9.0

17. Chin-Lung Hu, ss, 9.0

18. Wladimir Balentien, rf, 9.0

Hu is perhaps the most underrated prospect in baseball at this point, mostly because he will be of very little use to a fantasy team. Balentien's numbers are outstanding. I have since seen him in person and he was pear shaped, which would drop him down a few spots. I'm still going to be higher on him than most. If I rated the pitchers, Cueto, Kershaw, Price, and Bailey would be starting to filter into the list somewhere around now.

19. Travis Snider, of, 8.5

20. Steven Pearce, of, 8.5

21. Matt LaPorta, of, 8.5

A few guys that have a chance to become true middle of the order boppers. Snider would move up to a 9.0 with the news that he'll start the seaon in AA.

22. Ian Stewart, 3b, 8.5-He's still really young for his level and has a chance to be a very good big leaguer.

23. Fernando Martinez, of, 8.5

24. Elvis Andrus, ss, 8.5

25. Carlos Triunfel, ss, 8.5

Andrus moves up to a 9.0, maybe even a 9.5 with the promotion to AA. All three of these guys are high risk, high reward types.

26. Desmond Jennings, cf, 8.5

27. Matt Wieters, c, 8.5

Jennings is one guy I will admid that I could be underestimating. He's got tools and plate discipline, and that usually turns out well. Still, he's only heading to high A this year, so he's a long long way off. Why is Clement rated so much higher than Wieters? They have basically the same scouting profile, only Clement is two years more advanced and has "proven" that he can hit for power as high as AAA. Basically they have the same ceiling, only Clement is much safer and, in theory, could start producing at the MLB level much sooner.

28. Nate Shierholtz, of, 8.5

29. Scott Moore, 3b, 8.5

30. Chris Davis, 1b, 8.5

That was based on the assumption that Shierholtz was major league ready, which he is. Not a whole lot of upside, but should be a solid outfielder. Still, I'd have to ding him for getting sent to AAA. Moore is just forgotten about, but he has a chance to be a solid MLB power hitter. The power is real for Chris Davis, and it needs to be, given the rest of his limitations.

31. Trevor Plouffe, ss, 8.5

32. Chris Nelson, ss, 8.5

33. Brett Lillibridge, ss, 8.5

These three are really interchangeable. Plouffe is really underrated. His offensive numbers look alright for a SS when you consider is youth and level. He's a medium risk, medium reward type of player. Nelson has the biggest ceiling of the three, but he's also the most risky.

34. Blake Dewitt, 3b, 8.5

35. Eric Campbell, 3b, 8.5

36. Angel Vilalona, 1b, 8.5

That's right, I had Dewitt rated #34 (about #55 overall if you counted the pitchers) heading into the season and drafted him to my fantasy team when the news broke five minutes before the draft that he was the starter[/brag]. He obviously moves up a pantload since the Dodgers showed the confidnece in him to start him at 3b for a division contending club. His early performance will only move him up higher. I'm downplaying some makeup issues with Campbell, assuming that kids mature as they get older. I've seen Big-V in person, and I'm a believer. He's just so far out.

37. Austin Jackson, cf, 8.0-Here we learn a new term, "prospect volatility". Jackson could very well be a top five prospect next year...or he could fall off the chart. AA will tell the truth:)

38. Neil Walker, 3b, 8.0

39. Chase Headley, 3b, 8.0

40. Josh Reddick, of, 8.0

41. Aaron Cunningham, of, 8.0

For those of you who follow me, you know I think Headley is quite a bit overrated. That's not to say he's not a good prospect, I just see him as high risk/meduim reward. Reddick is greatly underrated, mostly because he's not toolsy. Still, his power/contact combination could go a long way. Cunningham comes down with the injury, but I still like his chances of being an MLB OF.

42. Jed Lowrie, ss, 8.0

43. J.R. Towles, c, 8.0

44. Geovany Soto, c, 8.0

Yes, I think Trevor Plouffe has a better chance of being what people think Jed Lowrie is. Lowrie is a classic medium risk/low reward type of player. Soto is a little porkball, and that turned me off. I don't care what the sites say, I stood within ten feet of him, and he looked to be about 5'11" 250. I didn't really like him even before that.

45. Chris Lubanski, of, 8.0

46. Chris Carter (Oak), 1b, 8.0

47. Matt Antonelli, 2b, 8.0

48, German Duran, 2b, 8.0

I have since learned why nobody likes Lubanski, and he would drop off of my list. Carter is a big bopper, and he'll need to be to have any value. Antonelli and Duran are basically the same player statistically. Duran really doesn't have any weaknesses, but lacks a true strenght, while Antonelli has some strengths, but also some weaknesses.

49. Nick Weglarz, of, 8.0

50. Ryan Royster, of, 8.0

I haven't really read a whole lot on these two, so this is based mostly on stats.

51. Kyle Blanks, 1b, 8.0

52. Tyler Colvin, cf, 8.0

Blanks has lots of power and lots of fat.

53. Mike Moustakas, ss, 8.0

54. Sean Rodriguez, ss, 8.0

55. Josh Rodriguez, ss, 8.0

Lots of risk here, in differnt forms.

56. Taylor Green, 3b, 8.0

57. Billy Rowell, 3b, 8.0

58. Bryan Anderson c, 8.0

1998 Prospect Review

rwperu34 — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 18:22:52 -0000

The method:

A prospects value to his team is almost entirely tied up in the value he provides over his first six years of service time. In theory, a player should be paid market value after six year. That's not always the case, but for purposes of this study, we'll assume that to be true.

I took the WARP1 from BP and put it into a formula very similar to MORP to come up with a $ amount for each season played. This helps account for the superstar premium. Negative WARP counts as $0. Then I take the net present value of all those years and rank the players. I used a 15% discount rate, but no season can be counted less than half. That might not be economically sound, but I think it helps us in reaching the desired result.

I go out to six years of service time, regardless of whether the player was traded, released, or had a year or two of free agency bought out. Usually only a star or superstar will have years of free agency bought out at a discount. I did not count value returned in trades. This is another area where developing one superstar will net a bigger return than multiple above average players of "equal" value.

I did the best I could with service time, but it wasn't always easy to tell when the clock started.

To be eligible for the list a player had to rank in BA's top 100 in 1998 or play in full season ball. I'm sure I missed a few fringe players, but the top half of the list should be accurate.

The Results:

Helton, Berkman, and Halladay are no suprise. They were all top prospects. Helton was ranked #11 that year by BA and #4 with a straight A from John. Halladay was ranked #38 by BA heading into 1998 and would peak at #12 in 1999. Berkman was a 1998 draftee and ranked #64 by BA and would climb as high as #13 in 1999. All three are still superstars. Helton has a good chance at the Hall.

The first big suprise was Hidalgo at #4. Not only did I not think of his career worthy of a top 5 prospect, I thought of him as a minor bust. He is the epitome of why we like guys with tremendous ceilings. His 2000 season alone would have ranked him at #37 overall! He had another big season in 2003 surrounded by a bunch of mediocrity. He was ranked #19 heading into 1998 by BA.

The next group is Javier Vazquez and Freddy Garcia. These were your basic #1 starters that stayed healthy. As I would have expected, only four of the top 20 are pitchers. Neither of these guys were top prospects. Garcia ranked #64 in 1999, and Vazquez came completely out of nowhere.

Moving down the list, Chavez at #7 was already an elite prospect heading into 1998. Beltran was a toolsy outfielder in the low minors that ranked #93 in 1997 and #13 in 1999 but for some reason wasn't ranked in 1998.

Richie Sexson was a miss in 1998. He was a 22yo in AA that hit 31 bombs, was big, and didn't whiff too often at 18.8%. He was not ranked by BA and did not make John's top 50.

Kerry Wood probably had the best stuff on this list, but was undone by injuries. He still had three star level years plus his 1998 rookie season to rank #13.

Adrian Beltre was a universal top 3 prospect. His phenomanal contract year in 2004 accounts for about half of his value. Another example of why we like the guys with superstar potential.

Rolondo Arrojo was #1 after 1998 and 1999. A good example of why we don't judge prospect lists after two years.

BA's #1 and John's #2, Ben Grieve comes in a #48. He was actually solid for the first four years of his career, but never a superstar.

David Ortiz comes in at #52. He had his biggest years after his service time was up.

Chad Hermansen was probably the biggest bust. He was ranked #13 by both BA and John and produced a whopping $116k in value.

1    Helton,Todd    $112,608,674
2    Berkman,Lance    $77,994,734
3    Halladay,Roy    $76,401,302
4    Hidalgo,Richard    $70,083,271
5    Garcia,Freddy    $68,780,473
6    Vazquez,Javier    $68,591,926
7    Chavez,Eric    $66,517,938
8    Beltran,Carlos    $61,223,809
9    Sexson,Richie    $61,145,562
10    Ordonez,Magglio    $60,482,214
11    Lowell,Mike    $58,774,619
12    Lee,Derrek    $58,349,695
13    Wood,Kerry    $56,103,980
14    Tejada,Miguel    $54,166,304
15    Kotsay,Mark    $53,829,886
16    Beltre,Adrian    $52,276,916
17    Glaus,Troy    $50,155,983
18    Jenkins,Geoff    $49,371,046
19    Polanco,Placido    $47,795,787
20    Cabrera,Orlando    $44,129,226
21    Arrojo,Rolando    $43,594,628
22    Washburn,Jarrod    $42,539,012
23    Milton,Eric    $42,203,161
24    Rollins,Jimmy    $40,773,128
25    Escobar,Kelvim    $39,513,804
26    Ponson,Sidney    $38,492,642
27    Casey,Sean    $35,661,946
28    Westbrook,Jake    $35,113,656
29    Lee,Carlos    $35,000,980
30    Arroyo,Bronson    $34,790,474
31    Johnson,Nick    $34,365,358
32    Guillen,Carlos    $33,629,040
33    Miller,Wade    $33,364,061
34    Cordero,Fransisco    $33,259,051
35    Wilson,Preston    $32,550,029
36    Millar,Kevin    $32,475,473
37    Belliard,Ron    $30,974,678
38    Lee,Travis    $30,854,392
39    Hernandez,Ramon    $30,566,403
40    Pavano,Carl    $30,406,913
41    Clement,Matt    $29,146,687
42    Hunter,Torii    $28,237,106
43    Konerko,Paul    $27,486,714
44    Wells,Vernon    $26,907,197
45    Ramirez,Aramis    $26,621,123
46    Benson,Kris    $26,432,189
47    Pierzynski,A.J.    $26,181,455
48    Grieve,Ben    $23,267,964
49    Penny,Brad    $23,029,868
50    Looper,Braden    $20,746,296
51    Encarnacion,Juan    $20,724,332
52    Ortiz,David    $20,355,186
53    Chacon,Shawn    $19,146,503
54    Armas,Tony    $18,319,739
55    Eaton,Adam    $17,983,174
56    Dempster,Ryan    $17,977,558
57    Chen,Bruce    $17,603,692
58    Yan,Esteban    $17,359,206
59    Jackson,Damian    $17,042,937
60    Jimenez,D'Angelo    $16,636,732
61    Elarton,Scott    $16,187,352
62    Ortiz,Ramon    $16,119,475
63    Meche,Gil    $16,026,340
64    Crede,Joe    $15,797,736
65    Julio,Jorge    $15,617,078
66    Linebrink,Scott    $15,557,477
67    Parque,Jim    $15,356,651
68    Riske,David    $15,030,378
69    Towers,Josh    $14,662,364
70    Marquiss,Jason    $14,084,223
71    Duchscherer,Jusitn    $13,534,798
72    Wilson,Craig    $13,036,028
73    Marrero,Eli    $12,699,582
74    Reitsma,Chris    $12,687,744
75    Barrett,Michael    $12,539,023
76    Rivera,Ruben    $12,264,953
77    Fullmer,Brad    $12,024,056
78    Cora,Alex    $11,428,672
79    Feliz,Pedro    $11,202,686
80    Ankiel,Rick    $10,193,421
81    Guzman,Christian    $9,920,307
82    Torrealba,Yorvit    $9,686,468
83    Estallella,Bobby    $9,514,792
84    Davis,Ben    $9,258,840
85    Gregg,Kevin    $9,105,520
86    Gonzalez,Alex (fla)    $8,725,805
87    Patterson,John    $7,915,028
88    Carter,Quincy    $7,776,570
89    Sanchez,Alex    $7,312,271
90    Scutaro,Marcus    $6,972,591
91    Anderson,Matt    $6,964,172
92    Meadows,Brian    $6,953,554
93    Durbin,Chad    $6,638,027
94    Anderson,Jimmy    $6,627,018
95    Branyan,Russell    $6,486,093
96    Valentien,Javier    $6,349,108
97    Reyes,Dennis    $6,172,901
98    Rose,Brian    $5,958,017
99    Dunwoody,Todd    $5,877,961
100    Giambi,Jeremy    $5,525,396

Velocity Matters

rwperu34 — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 08:02:09 -0000

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=705

This is an excellent blog post from BA. The cliff's notes are;

When rating a pitching prospect, velocity isn't the only thing, but it matters.

Seven different pitchers have a peak velocity of 100MPH or more. Of those, two did it in the high minors. I'm sure nobody is suprised to see Joba Chamberlain on the list. You might not have expected Felipe Paulino to have hit 102MPH!

I'd say the five best prospects on that list are Paulino, Chamberlain, Kershaw, McGee, and Scherzer.

Once again I am reminded how funky Jeff Samardzija's career has been. 98MPH with a measly 4.1 K/9 in 2007?

Twins Payroll

rwperu34 — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 21:45:23 -0000

Salary information provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts;

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/minnesota-twins_17.html

This is an estimation of what the Twins payroll will look like in 2008, and perhaps beyond. I'll estimate who is going to play where the best I can.

Position, Player, Salary, Service Time
C-Joe Mauer, $6.25MM, 4.0
1b-Justin Morneau, ~$7MM, 3.2
2b, Alexi Casilla, ~$400k, < 1
3b-none
ss-Jason Bartlett, ~$500k, 2.1
lf-up in the air, $500k-$2.5MM
cf-none
rf-Michael Cuddyer, ~$5MM, 4.2
dh-Jason Kubel, ~$1.2MM, 3.0

Bench
UT-Nick Punto, $2.4MM, 5.1
C-Mike Redmond, $0.95MM, 9.1
OF-Jason Tyner, ~$800k, 3.1

Offensive notes; There will be two more bench player, most likely getting paid about $700k combined. Craig Monroe will either take a huge paycut to sign or get non tendered. There is no way the Twins offer arb and get stuck paying $5+MM.

That's about $25.2MM on position players, still short a CF and 3b, and kind of crappy at LF/DH. They will owe Mauer and Morneau $20MM+ in 2009, and Cuddyer ain't gettin' any cheaper as he rolls through his arb years.

Pitching;
SP-Johan Santana, $13.25MM, 7.1
SP-Boof Bonser, $400k, 1.1
SP-Scott Baker, $400k, 1.1
SP-Matt Garza, $400k, < 1
SP-Fransisco Liriano, $500k, 2.0
SP-Kevin Slowey, $400k, <1

RP-Joe Nathan, $6MM, 6.1
RP-Pat Neshek, $400k, 1.1
RP-Matt Guerrier, $900k, 3.1
RP-Juan Rincon, $2.8MM, 5.1
RP-Dennys Reyes, $1MM, 9.0
RP-Jesse Crain, $1.05MM, 3.1

Pitching notes; Santana, Nathan, and Rincon are in their last years before free agency. Nobody is locked in for more than ~$1MM for 2009.

That's about $27.5MM for a pat staff.

The Twins payroll was $71MM last year,
and I've read that it will be around $78MM in 2008. They've got $52.7 in commitments for 2008 leaving them ~$25MM to find a CF, 3b, and LF/DH while looking for an improvement over Kubel at LF/DH.

This team is not bad enough to blow up, but they've got some serious holes. As I look at it, trading Santana is not the answer. They've got to stay the course and sign second tier free agents (Lofton, Lamb) to fill their holes and make a run. I can see trading Nathan to fill one hole, and Rincon as more of a salary dump. You give up Santana, you give up your edge.

After taking a closer look at this team, I think the trade scenarios are even more muddled. The one team that could fill the Twins holes at 3B and CF are the Dodgers with LaRoche and Kemp, but that would be a violent overpay from the Dodgers perspective, and there certianly wouldn't be any other prospects going over. Most likely any deal for Santana is going to be step 1 of a multi step process, but again, I just don't see it getting done.

Final thoughts; This team should plug its holes with cheap options and see what lady variance says about 2008. If they make it, great. If not, deal whatever stopgaps they sign, Santana, and whoever's left from Nathan and Rincon at the deadline. They get less in return, but will have a much better idea of where they stand. Right now, this team is in no-mans land, with regard to win potential.

Given the fact that Morneau and Mauer are not too far from costing $30MM/yr, I doubt it's in the Twins best interest to sign Santana to a 6/120 extension. I can't see him accepting less than that, so his value to the Twins is ~$27MM (~$12MM for 2008 performance and ~$15MM for draft pick compensatioin) for 2008. While they can get way more in total value in a trade, it's unlikely they can replace his $25MM of actual value for 2008.

I do recant my statement that they won't take Crisp back in a deal. He would probably have to be paired with Youkilis and a prospect (Lester/Bowden/Masterson/high ceiling A ball type...etc).

Guess the 3B!

rwperu34 — Mon, 27 Aug 2007 13:43:58 -0000

These are projected #'s based on this year's performance. I made some necessary and reasonable assumptions, which I'll go over later.

3B#1-.281/.356/.502, 27 HR
3B#2-.289/.342/.480, 21 HR
3B#3-.255/.299/.480, 27 HR

It'll be about ten or twelve hours before I get back in front of the computer, so have fun:)

The 2008 Prospect List

rwperu34 — Sat, 04 Aug 2007 07:08:48 -0000

With the promotion of Upton and Jones, they will most likely not be eligible for the 2008 list. I think we may have been spoiled over the last couple of years by the depth of the prospect lists. It seems like 2008 will be somewhat of a down year. The 1-2 punch of Longoria-Bruce is pretty good and there's a good 1-2 pitching punch of Buchholtz-Chamberlain, but it seems like the depth will be lacking. The #3 position prospect looks to be Cameron Maybin. While I'm one of his biggest supporters, I readily admit he's not the same caliber of recent top 5 prospects.

Here is what the 2008 list would look like if the season ended today. I've taken our midseason top 50 and scratched players that likely won't be eligible. No 2007 draftees are included. The only two from the 2007 draft that jump right out as immidiate top 10 candidates are Price and Wieters, and even they are fringe top 10 types. Other than that, you're looking at the high ceiling high school types that are a long ways off.

Evan Longoria, 3b
Jay Bruce, of
Clay Buchholz, rhp
Clayton Kershaw, lhp
Cameron Maybin, of
Fernando Martinez, of
Colby Rasmus, of
Brandon Wood, 3b
Adam Miller, rhp
Reid Brignac, ss
Joey Votto, 1b
Daric Barton, 1b
Luke Hochevar, rhp
Joba Chamberlain, rhp
Andrew McCutchen, of
Jose Tabata, of
Eric Hurley, rhp
Wade Davis, rhp
Travis Snider, of
Jake McGee, lhp

More Maybin

rwperu34 — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 06:27:34 -0000

We had a debate going in this diary where people are somewhat down on Cameron Maybin. In that thread I pointed out that he's a top 15 prospect right now. I think we need to rethink what we think of Maybin, because as I look at the list for next year, I can't see him not in the top 10.

Maybin is ranked 14 on our community list. Of the 13 rated ahead of him, seven are not going to be eligible next year for sure. Two more (Upton and Jones) could get called up very shortly which would likely make them inelgible for next seasons list. Here's what next seasons list could look like; 1. Upton 2. Jones 3. Longoria 4. Bruce 5. Buchholz 6. Kershaw 7. Maybin. That would put Maybin in the 5-7 range overall, depending on how soon Upton and Jones get called up.

Who are the guys behind him that can pass him up? Really, only Martinez, Rasmus, and Wood have realistic shots to pass him up. If Wood gets traded, he likely gets too many at bats to be eligible. If he doesn't, he's a 3B, where he's a fairly ordinary prospect. That leaves Martinez and Rasmus as the only two with a real shot to pass him. Who is he likely to pass? I can't really see Maybin pasing any of those players, although I guess Kershaw is a possibility

Who are the 2007 draftees that will rate ahead of Maybin? I have a hard time believing any of the high school hitters will rank ahead, so we're basically looking at Price and Weiters. Assuming those guys both sign and play reasonably well in their debut (I suppose it doesn't really matter with Price, in fact he's probably better off not sigining and taking the rest), Maybin would be ranked no lower than 11, possibly as high as 6. If that's not an A- prospect, I don't know what is.

Chad Cordero

rwperu34 — Mon, 14 May 2007 13:38:19 -0000

To anybody who's seen Chad Cordero pitch this year...
Any word on why his walk rate has spiked?
How is his velocity?
How is his other stuff?
Could his grandmother's cancer be part of the reason for his early season struggles?
His BABIP is pretty high, but it had been insanely low the last two years. Is this just regression to the mean?
His HR/FB is up at 14%, his career hr/fb is pretty normal at 9.6%.

What's the overall outlook for himi between now and the end of the year?