SB Nation User Blog: ryan c

chipper needs a change....

ryan c — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 01:02:57 -0000

No, not to first base. Chipper Jones is the greatest Atlanta Brave of all time. In my opinion, he is even greater than Maddux only for one reason: loyalty. Chipper wanted to be a Brave and stay a Brave so badly that he restructured his contract and moved to left field so Vinny Castilla could take over at third base. Chipper, because he will leave baseball the same way he came into baseball (as a Brave), is probably the greatest Atlanta Brave I will ever know.

Chipper will not move from 3rd base again....ever. It's not happening. Even though there are defensive metrics out there that says he's worse than a little leaguer with ADHD, he's not moving. Defensively, he's staying put.

Chipper isnt really a power threat anymore. Sure, he might hit 15-22 homeruns per year, but for a #3 hitter, that is quite below average (the average #3 hitter last year hit 26 homeruns). With that being said, I propose a promotion to Chipper:

Chipper for the 2 hole.

Let's think about this for a moment. Chipper Jones has the ability to hit the ball all over: in the gaps, over the fence, and blooping it in over some poor soul at the middle infield position. Plus, we all know that he's pretty decent at working a count and taking a walk (+100 career OBP). Adding to this is the fact that he rarely strikes out (less than 16% last year and 13% for his career), he would make a great #2 hitter.

With Mclouth obviously set to begin things off for the braves (I would still rather have diaz leading off), martin prado has been the #2 man for the braves. While Martin was a valuable piece when inserted into the #2 hole, he will never have the on-base capability of chipper. Putting Chipper in the 2 hole allows the braves (bobby cox) to get out of the "bunt-minded" mode that plagued them last year and allows them to work on creating big first innings. When the Braves offense started struggling, Bobby started utilizing the bunt earlier and more often. With Chipper in the 2 hole, Bobby has no choice but to let his superstar swing away.

Proposed Lineup (against righties) This is assuming we bring laroche back and sign someone equivalent in power to xavier nady, which is who I will be using in my example. I do believe that the braves will find 2 bats similar, if not better than Nady and Laroche. I believe in Frank Wren.

Mclouth

Chipper

Mccann

Laroche

Escobar

Diaz

Heyward

Prado

Against Lefties (dream, but bare with me)

McLouth

Chipper

Diaz

Nady

Escobar

Mccann

Prado

Laroche

In my lefty lineup, Matt Diaz hits in the #3 hole. In 152 abs against left-handed pitching, Matt Diaz hit .412 last year with a 1.103 ops. For his career, Matt Diaz has hit .347 against lefties with a .921 ops. To say Matty D. is a lefty-killer is an understatement. He is a LEFTY DESTROYER! Matt Diaz deserves to be in the middle of the order against left handed pitching.

Whatever happened to......

ryan c — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:22:51 -0000

I've seen this on a blog before, but not a braves blog so I figured talking chop was the place to post something like this without being accused of "thread hijacking". here's how it works:

Have you ever wondered what happened to a Braves player/prospect that seemed to be "Here today, gone tomorrow"? Well, here's the thread to ask. Let's put our minds together and see if we can cure everyone's curiousity. You can either just post the player's name in the headline, or you can say "Whatever Happened to" in the headline and put the name of the player in the "body". Only reply to someone's quiery with an answer. I'll start it with the first post (it also helps to paste the players bio as a refresher).

starting pitcher averages...

ryan c — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:50:49 -0000

in 2008 (numbers for 2009, post-steroid era, should be very similar) compliments of 2 posters from bravesjournal:

here are the requirements:

A #1 should give the team 200+ innings before the playoffs. Drop about 20 innings for each spot down so that a #5 is giving you @130-160 innings at an ERA of league average +50-75 points.

Set a minimum cut-off of 13 games started and 73 innings pitched, that gives me 80 pitchers, which is exactly 5 per team. Breaking those pitchers up into 5 groups of 16 pitchers each based on ERA, and then getting the average ERA for that group based on total earned runs and total innings pitched, here are the averages:

#1: 3.01
#2: 3.75
#3: 4.23
#4: 4.89
#5: 5.84

with this average, the braves had 2 aces, one #3, one #4, then tommy hanson, who didnt qualify because of innings, but would have been an ace, and tim hudson, who also didnt qualify due to innings, but would have been a #2. so, if all goes well and the braves are able to find some sucker to take lowe, the braves could have 3 legitimate aces, one #2, and one #3.

I'm guessing there must be some buffer for the labels, so i would be willing to guess it would be along these lines:

#1- 3.38 or lower

#2- 3.39-4.04

#3-4.05-4.56

#4-4.57-5.33

#5- 5.33-higher

With the buffer, we had 2 aces, two #3s, then timmy and tommy who dont qualify, but would be a 2 and an ace.

This fanpost has been edited from its original content, and in no way does it include anything concerning Kris Medlen :)
Be nice! I'm going to do my best...

Why the braves shouldn't be scared to trade a pitcher....

ryan c — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 22:43:55 -0000

Kris Medlen.

In his own words, Kris talks about becoming comfortable in any pitching role, and his transitions from the minors to the majors. The writing is a little confusing, but it's always a good read when it comes from the actual player. It's pretty obvious when looking at Kris's 1st half and 2nd half splits that the kid figured something out (link to his bio can be found under his picture). As good as our starting pitching has been, it could get better if Kris Medlen were to be in the rotation. Trading one of Lowe, Kawakami, or Vazquez is not as risky as perceived with Kris Medlen able to step in. The kid is going to be something special. Maybe even "Tommy Hanson" special.

http://tinyurl.com/ylmj4dx

Take this into consideration...

ryan c — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:56:28 -0000

At the end of July, the braves exorcised the demon that is Jeff Francoeur, and were a better team from then on. Going 45-32 throughout the rest of the year, the braves had a .584 winning percentage. If those numbers would have ran true for a full season, not only would the braves have been in the playoffs, but they would have been NL east champs by 2 games.

I am the world's worst rosterbation expert, but when it comes down to it, there probably isnt a whole lot of rosterbating that needs to go on. Inserting heyward in right and letting everything else roll is probably the best thing the braves can do, if they can afford it financially. We had a good season. We will have a better 2010.

more 2010 rosterbation...sorry, no pujols.

ryan c — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 15:24:13 -0000

as you guys are all aware, bobby cox is probably the greatest "people manger" in the game. bobby's in-game decisions are more than questionable and downright foolish at times, but no one can doubt the impact on players that this man has (giving moylan, prado, and diaz a chance to succeed where most managers would have not, and giving vazquez "manager's approval" to become the ace he has been for us this year). also, bobby cox has been a great manager in taming some "high-profile" names over the years and those players have put up career years under bobby (jd drew, gary sheffield).

so, what should be bobby's final test: milton bradley

i have been very outspoken about selling high and trading javier vazquez, however there might be a tiny bit of hope that the braves can keep hudson AND vazquez. here it is"

trade derek lowe and kj for milton bradley and some relief help.

milton bradley walked in to a terrible situation for himself. being as loud and boisterous as he is, he walked into a clubhouse who already had too many headcases: piniella, zambrano, lilly, etc.. in atlanta, a much smaller profile city and team, he could find success again.

here's what it does for our team:

1. allows flexibility to keep vazquez and hudson

2. solves the "right-handed power bat" issue

3. gives payroll flexibility to re-sign laroche, gonzo or soriano.

4. will cost only 20 mil over the next 2 years (if the braves can get bradley's contract adjusted to 10 mil/per) instead of 45 mil over 3.

here's the current setup:

if the braves were to pick up hudson's option, and trade for milton bradley, that would put the payroll right at 80 million dollars for the following 20 players:

hudson, vazquez, jurrjens, hanson, kawakami, medlen, o'flaherty, moylan, mccann, ross, chipper, escobar, infante, prado, conrad, diaz, church, bradley, mclouth, heyward.

without increasing payroll, the braves have about 16-17 million dollar to play with in the final 5 spots.

my suggestion: sign laroche for 2/16, re-sign gonzo or soriano for 7 mil/per and fill-in last 3 spots with cheap trade pick-ups or in-house options.

ps: those of you that said prado is a utility player and cant withstand a full-time job probably didnt expect him to have a red hot end of sepetember.

2010 payroll...

ryan c — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 03:23:41 -0000

in all likelihood, the braves will exercise tim hudson's 2010 option and trade javier vazquez for some relief help or a power bat. if the braves decided to let hudson walk, they would be wasting a very valuable trading chip in vazquez. hudson won't even bring in any draft picks. so, with that in mind, i came up with my 2010 payroll spreadsheet . all of the arb salaries are approximate and some roster moves are influenced by my opinion as to what the braves should/will do with their 25-man roster in 2010.

Lowe	15
Hudson	12
Chipper	13
Kawakami	7.33
Mccann	5.67
Mclouth	5
Infante	1.85
Ross	1.6
Diaz	3
Jurrjens	1
Escobar	1
Prado	0.75
Moylan	2
Medlen	0.5
Church	3.5
Hanson	0.5
Heyward	0.5
Conrad	0.5
O'Flaherty	0.5
	75.2

Here are my 19 players that i think will most definitely be on the 2010 roster. The braves 2009 payroll was probably over 100 million after the acquisitions of laroche and mclouth. with that being said, I would expect the payroll to take a dip to the 90-95 million dollar range. With 75.2 million likely going to 19 players, that leaves 15-20 million dollars for the remaining 6.

so, my question to you guys is, do the braves go and spend 10-12 mil per year on a big bat and trade vazquez for some qualitly "closing caliber" relief, or do they take other routes to fill the ballclub's needs?