Today Nate Silver, of BP fame, published a new list of the best players in professional baseball, based on the PECOTA projection system. He only released the first half of the list. Link.

Cubs on the List:

47. Geovany Soto

Silver says:

 Full disclosure: Soto is presently my favorite baseball player, mostly because he looks every bit as Eurotrash as someone named Geovany Soto should.

He also mentions Soto's VORP of 43.4 since the start of '07. Pretty sick.

43. Carlos Zambrano

Interesting quote from Silver (note, he's a Cub fan):

Statistically speaking, he's still a number-two starter masquerading as a one, but at some point you have to give deference to his adaptability, his durability, and his bat, which has produced 15 lifetime home runs.

37. Rich Harden

Quote from Silver:

We said at the outset that this list is all about upside. So I'm willing to accept some injury risk for pitchers, provided that they can be this good when healthy.

And I agree, when healthy, Harden is clearly our ace.

Interesting to note that Matt Wieters comes in at number 22 on the list, and Josh Vitters, who we picked a few picks in front of Wieters, is nowhere to be found. Granted, Vitters is raking in the NWL.

Linky.

Guess this is somewhat surprising, I expected it to be Zambrano, but today Hurdle named Sheets the starting pitcher. And now i have to fill up this limit. What do you guys think about this, who would you have preferred? I'll put up a poll I guess. So what o you guys think about Ryan Theriot? Just kidding... I hope the NL can actually win this year, it would be nice to get home field if we make it to the WS. Rambling.... wordy word wordy word...

EDIT: It was also just announced that Kosuke will be batting 8th, and Geovany batting 9th in the lineup.

Doug Melvin had previously talked about the idea of an "inverse start," where his relievers would start the first 3 innings of a game, and then the starter will come in and finish the game. The idea is that the starter will then pitch in the higher leverage situations, and do a better job of it than the reliever. The Brewers are now going to start putting this into practice with their class A team, Brevard County. Here's the link.

Anyway, what do you guys think of this? I think Al has previously said this, and I agree with it, that major league pitchers will never agree to this, because their win totals will be not nearly as high. I think it's certainly an interesting thing to try, but I'm not sure how it will play out.

Read this carefully: over the course of this year, our favorite scrappy little SS Ryan Theriot is on pace to cost the Cubs 18 runs with his horrific defense. 18 freaking runs. Some teams have a shortstop that actually helps their team on defense, but it would be nice to at least break even. This bum is actually costing us 18 runs, which will end up being the equivalent of three or four games based on pythagorean records. Anyway, here's the link to one of the most informed blog posts that I've read:

http://www.anothercubsblog.net/index.php/site/articles/it-got-past-theriot/

And yes, I know he does those all important "little things," but they really don't mean anything if he's costing us games with his defense. Not to mention the fact that his base-running is simply awful. And yes, I realize he's hitting .308 this year. But his OPS+ of 97 is actually below league average, even with that decent batting average. So this is a guy with horrible defense and base-running, and below average to decent hitting, and people are posting diaries talking about how great he is? How many times have BCB users said: "Ryan Theriot is great for this team, he does things that don't show up in the boxscore." Yeah, like cost his team 18 runs a year. Please, Jim Hendry, find us another starter, and once you're done with that, replace this bum!

http://www.hofmag.com/content/view/1065/190/

Personally, I agree with Lou. What I find to be absolutely ridiculous about this article is the head of the "save the fame game campaign", Kristian Connolly, claiming that:

"The Hall of Fame Game is about something much bigger than the 2008 Chicago Cubs."

Oh, really. An out-dated tradition that nobody even cares about is bigger than this team? Only one of those two things is being cancelled after this year, and it isn't the Chicago Cubs. I for one am glad the Cubs are taking 15 rookie league players to Cooperstown, the regulars could use some rest.

So obviously the title of this diary is a bit facetious, as any team in baseball would love to have Brandon Webb. But, after all the raving over his legitimately impressive 9-0 start, I thought I would take a look at comparing his stats to those of Carlos Zambrano, and sure enough, Big Z ranks higher in many categories.  Zambrano has an ERA of 2.03, with a ridiculously high ERA + of 218. Webb's ERA is 2.56, and his ERA + is 175. Also, shockingly enough, Zambrano actually has fewer walks than Webb, with 16 compared to Webb's 17. Of course Webb is still an excellent pitcher, who's started his season very well, but I thought it was interesting that the core stats of Zambrano were actually better. 

And the Cubs rotation is at least starting to have some form. If Gallagher pitches well like he did today we have:

Zambrano
Lilly
Dempster
Gallagher
Marquis/Hart/Hill/Marshall

Personally I can't stand Jason Marquis, so I would prefer Hart, Hill, or Marshall and I'm hoping Hill gets himself fixed down at Iowa, because I still believe he's got a bright future. He's pitched well at Iowa so far, although his walk totals are still a little high.

Overall, I'm becoming extremely optimistic about this team. Assuming they win today they'll be ten games over, and they'll have either the best or second best record and baseball. I think if I could make any changes, it would be that Cedeno starts everyday over Theriot, which I've been calling for since late last year. However, Theriot has certainly played well enough to retain his starting job up until this point, and hopefully that will continue. I think the signing of Jim Edmonds wasn't really necessary, as I believe Fukudome could be moved to center, and Micah Hoffpauir could play right field. And I'm still holding out hope that Felix Pie will become a better major league hitter to go along with his excellent defense and outstanding arm. If he ever does realize his full talent, by the end of the year I'd love to see a lineup of:

Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
Ramirez
Soto
DeRosa
Cedeno
Pie
Pitcher

I think that would be the ideal lineup, but again I'm not complaining as the offense has been spectacular. To sum it all up: Go Cubs!

Our favorite website has a source saying that at the GM Meetings Hendry talked to the Tigers about a possible JJ for Omar Infante swap. I think this is interesting because it would be an alternative to Kaz Matsui, but also because it shows Hendry is serious about getting someone to play opposite of Mark DeRosa. Apparently Hendry saw the same Ryan Theriot that all the rest of us did at the end of the season, and is trying hard to replace him.

Here's the link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/jacques-jones-f.html

Infante certainly doesn't hit for any power, but he has had a decent average in the last couple of years, and has faced the tough AL Central pitching. He seems like Ryan Theriot with a higher batting average. I think the real reason for this swap may just be to clear JJ out for Fukudome, but either way Hendry's seeming interest in every mediocre middle infielder in baseball seems to indicate something.

Maybe I'm off base on this, and maybe it doesn't deserve a diary, but it's something that's really been bothering me. This is a site that I love to come to and read, because Al runs it very well, and also because most of the posters are intelligent, and add to the discussion. Lately, however, one person in particular has really taken from my enjoyment of the site, and I'm sure many other people feel the same way. This poster has been posting things that at best are complete hearsay, but most of the time are just patently false. It really takes away from other people's enjoyment of BCB, so please, stop posting things that are just made up. Women don't throw 90, and you don't have inside information about how the new field will look, and how drastically different it will be. Thanks in advance.

Remember, the roster can be modified after each series. Also, Hendry announced Soto will be starting tomorrow.

The Roster

P: Zambrano Lilly Hill Dempster Marmol Howry Wood Wuertz Marquis Hart Eyre

IF: Ramirez Theriot DeRosa Lee

OF: Soriano Jones Floyd

C: Soto

Bench: Fontenot Cedeno Murton Pie Ward Kendall

--As reported on WSCR, after the press conference by Hendry.

Wasn't sure if this had been posted yet on the site, but if it had then feel free to delete this diary, Al. Anyway, I saw many people were asking about the 2007 highlight montage that WGN played earlier today during their push for the playoffs special, so here it is:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=q-gZXNI4k70

Enjoy, and lets go cubbies!!

Plenty of people bashed Jim Hendry for the trades(Bowen/Barrett,Kendall/Bowen), myself included, but I'd just like to point out, that in albeit limited playing time for Kendall, he has outperformed Bowen, Hill, and even Barrett in terms of many stats, most importantly OPS+.

Kendall: .271/.375/.354/91(OPS+)
Barrett: .256/.307/.427/88
Bowen:   .065/.167/.097/-29(YUCK!!)
Hill:    .153/.221/.271/27

Now obviously we all know that Kendall hits for virtually no power, and that was one thing about Barrett that the team misses right now. But I think that with all the problems Barrett seemed to be causing, added to how God awful he was defensively, the Cubs have actually come out ahead with all the catcher shuffling they've done.

Thoughts?

I normally check Baseball Prospectus once in a while to see the Cubs' playoff odds, and so far throughout this season they've been anywhere from around 15% to 45%. Never, though, had they been higher than the Brewers, until today. According to BP, the Cubs have a 50% chance of winning the central, while the Brewers only have a 46% chance. And the overall playoff odds are 61% to 57% in favor of the Cubs. It may just be a statistical projection, but I gotta say it's good to see, and to me it represents the fact that the Cubs might actually do something this year. Link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20070706&content_id=2070 598&vkey=pr_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Hahaha! This is pretty funny. Everybody's favorite light hitting shortstop has been busted for violating MLB's substance policy. Only one thing to say on this one: he really needs to go get his money back. He's hitting .172 and slugging .266. I think it's safe to say he isn't going to Bonds' guy for his stuff. -It's also quite possible that this is for some other type of drug, and I would think that almost has to be the case, because his stats have only been on the decline lately. If it was roids, they sure didn't help.

With tonight's 3.2 innings of scoreless relief, the Cubs bullpen is actually starting to be a good one. Marmol has been lights out, Howry has been good lately, if inconsistent, Ohman has been getting the job done, and tonight Michael Wuertz came up big. Also, I'd be remiss in not mentioning Billy Petrick, who pitched well while he was up here. If Dempster continues to pitch solidly upon his return, it will be a nice boost to the pen.

My main question, though: what is Scott Eyre's purpose? He has clearly proven himself to be unreliable throughout the course of this season, and obviously Lou feels the same way, because Eyre has been MIA when it comes to any type of pressure situation. Isn't this detrimental to the team, to have a guy up who is just taking up roster space, and not performing when called upon? I just don't understand why if the bullpen spots are so incredibly valuable, as Lou makes it seem, he would want a guy like Scott Eyre sitting around not doing a thing. I personally don't think that anybody would be too incredibly interested in Eyre in a trade, and I do realize that we probably should have more than one lefty in the pen.

Just wondering if anybody had any good ideas they think could help solve the problem. I think that the only option left is to DFA Eyre, but I realize that the Cubs probably won't go that route. Any thoughts?