I'm going to get right into it.

The Mets current roster has a few holes I'd like to address:

1) Crappy Long Term Payroll Commitments

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2) Inconsistent (that's the nicest way I can put it) Starting pitching performances

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3) Poor Back End of the Bullpen

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Well let's fix the problem.

DEALLZZZ:

1) Daniel Murphy, Jordanny Valdespin, Cesar Puello for Yasmani Grandal, & Bronson Arroyo (Reds eat all 15 mil of the deferred money + 7.5 mil of 13.5 for 2012 & 2013 contract. = Mets Pay Arroyo 3 mil in 2012 & 2013)

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Why this is Totally is plausible and sensible for both teams:

Scott Rolen put up a .293 wOBA last year. He'll be 36 by opening day next year. He's under contract for 6.5 mil for 2012 which will be impossible to move before the deadline. Brandon Phillips is facing a club option of 12 mil for 2012 as well. Murphy gives the Reds a bat at 3B or 2B if they're not comfortable with going forth with Francisco or giving Phillips the money. In addition, they deal Arroyo which they've been trying to do for years.They pick up 2 solid prospects one who can potentially make an impact in 2012 and another with a very high ceiling.

The Mets have settled for mediocrity at the catcher position since Lo Duca's great steroid fueled campaign. Grandal is a big college bat, who is MLB ready. (Through 170+PA's at both A+ and AA he put up a wOBA of .407 & 370). Arroyo is a straight up innings eater who up until last year posted at least 175IP and 1.5 WAR since 2004. 

The Mets deal a blocked player and lower level blocked prospects for The Reds' blocked catcher and 5th starter.

2) Gavin Floyd, Carlos Quentin, Jake Peavy, Jesse Crain for Jason Bay, Mike Pelfrey, Angel Pagan, Lucas Duda, Darrell Ceciliani, Jefry Marte

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THE GREAATTTT OVERHAUUUULLLL...

Why this actually works:

First part of the deal is a salary swap. Peavy and Bay make the same money with Bay's deal one year longer. Bay is actually an upgrade over the White Sox current LF, Juan Pierre. Peavy hasn't pitched more than 111 IP in any of the past 3 years. His lack of time on the field makes the salary tough to pay for Kenny WIlliams so he'll take a deal where he can go. He's injury prone to put it lightly, Bay, for all his perceived awfulness is a step up in Chicago and doesn't have any lingering injuries.

Pagan & Duda give the Sox upgrades over Alexi Rios and Quentin. Duda and Quentin are essentially the same player, (wOBA of 360 with mediocre gloves in RF). except Duda is 4 years younger which means 4 more years of cost control for Kenny WIlliams. A big plus for him.

In exchange for those 2 the Mets take back Quentin and Gavin Floyd. The Quentin for Duda swap gives the Sox a slight advantage given Quentin's injury history and Duda's age but the Mets kill with the Pagan for Floyd exchange. To even that up the Mets send Mike Pelfrey who should give quality innings in case Buehrle doesn't come back and also in case Stewart, Axelrod, & Sale don't pan out in 2012. Floyd would probably be used as trade bait this year anyway, as he is contracted for 2012 but only has a club option for 2013

The Mets also take back Jesse Crain who solidifies holes in their middle relief. And if Kenny isn't happy with these terms, the Mets also throw in Darrell Ceciliani & Jefry Marte. Both high ceiling players who could do well in Chicago's depleted system. Furthermore, the option of the DH expands possibilities for Bay & Duda.

3) Johan Santana & Josh Thole for Ryan Lavarnway, Josh Reddick, Michael Bowden  & Franklin Morales.

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Why this trade works for both teams.

Red Sox nation is panicking, and they're cleaning house. They lack starting pitching with Lackey now out and Wakefield & Bedard at the back end of their rotation. CJ Wilson is the one big name in free agency, and the competition for him is sure to be ridiculous. But here come the Mets sending over Johan Santana, a top of the line starter who should be fully healthy heading into 2012.

In addition the Sox get Thole, who is cost controlled, durable, and should be a serviceable backup to Salty. 

For that package the Mets take Lavarnway, a blocked catcher who would move to DH, Josh Reddick, a blocked Outfielder, Morales, a solid, but occasionally wild hard throwing lefty, and Bowden, a replacement level reliever who has been need of a change of scenery.

It really comes down to valuing Santana. At this point, I consider Santana to be a top-flight starter, who should put up a 3.5-4.5 WAR season in 2012, especially in Boston. Morales & Bowden have little value. (neither has put up more than .5 WAR since becoming relievers.) Reddick is a solid starter but with Kalish also in the system, his departure is not unthinkable. Lavarnway would be shifted to DH in Boston but his bat is not guaranteed for 2012, and given Boston, they'd probably prefer to acquire a veteran (Carlos Beltran?) for that position.

This deal will probably be the most controversial, but I think it makes sense considering the hysteria in Boston, the departure of Theo, and their depth at all positions except Starting Pitching. 

4) Sign Coco Crisp

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Terms: 2 year deal 13 million total + 6 mil Club option for 2014

2012: 5 mil

2013: 5 mil

Why: Fills the void at CF, Has averaged 2 WAR the past 3 years. Has a 3 year UzR average of +2. ....The Hair.

5) Sign Joe Nathan

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Terms: 1 year 5 mil deal with 60 Appearances incentive escalating the deal to 8 mil.

He's a closer, I think he'll bounce back from injury. Do you really prefer Frank Francisco?

6) Sign Endy Chavez

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Terms: 1 year 1.5 mil deal with club option for 2013 worth 2 mil.

Why: You asked why? Get out

Offer arbitration to Manny Acosta,

Don't offer arbitration to: Taylor Buhholz

Oh and....

7) Resign Jose Reyes

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Terms:

4 years guaranteed for 85 mil ( 20, 20, 22, 23). If Reyes reaches 2300 PA over the 4 years, an additional 2 year 40 mil (20, 20) option automatically kicks in. Bringing the total potential of the deal to 125 mil.

Why: Injury history, schmindury tistory. I feel comfortable with these terms, and I'd be happy to pay the extra 2 years of the deal if he stays healthy.

Lineup:

1) Jose Reyes SS

2) Coco Crisp CF

3) David Wright 3B

4) Ike Davis 1B

5) Carlos Quentin RF

6) Josh Reddick LF

7) Yasmani Grandal C

8) Ruben Tejada 2B

Rotation

SP) Jake Peavy

SP) Gavin Floyd

SP) RA Dickey

SP) Jon Niese

SP) Bronson Arroyo

Name                                                           2012 Est. WAR        2012 Salary

Additions:

1) Josh Reddick

2) Ryan Lavarnway

3) Gavin Floyd

4) Jake Peavy

5) Carlos Quentin

6) Yasmani Grandal

7) Franklin Morales

8) Jesse Crain

9) Michael Bowden

10) Coco Crisp

11) Endy Chavez

Losses

1) Josh Thole

2) Johan Santana

3) Daniel Murphy

4) Lucas Duda

5) Mike Pelfrey

6) Angel Pagan

7) Jordanny Valdespin

8) Cesar Puello

9) Jason Bay

10)Darrell Ceciliani

11) Jefry Marte

Management:

1) I'd platoon Lavarnway & Grandal, I could easily start one of the 2 in the minors. Both have the gloves to play behind the dish. Best to keep them healthy. Also thought of dealing one of them for BJ Upton instead of signing Crisp. But the idea of having to sign Upton after this season wasn't appealing.

2) I'd let Tejada/Havens battle for the 2b spot in Spring Training. Hell throw Turner in the battle, but he's not in my long term plans.

3) If Quentin goes down, there is space for Kirk to come up.

4) Harvey has plenty of room to come up with Arroyo as a 5th starter. There's only 3 mil tied in him for 2012/2013 so I have no qualms with giving Harvey some of his starts toward the end of the year.

Also, pitchers such as Gee, Stinson, Schwinden, etc, can all come up in case of injury.

Finally, for all the moves, we maintain our top 6 prospects:

Familia

Wheeler

Harvey

Flores

Kirk

Havens

This is my dream for the Mets. It doesn't defy logic, only tendencies.

Guaranteed Payroll Commitments:

2013:

1) Jose Reyes - 20 mil

2) Jesse Crain - 4.5 mil

3) Coco Crisp- 5 mil

It's that time of year again. The suppressed hope wrapped in a blanket of cynicism and dread. But hey, we're the Mets. so you signed up for this.

My AAOP centers on a couple of ideas

1) I love Jose Reyes, but I'm not paying him 5-6 years 20-22 million/year. During his Mets career he's been worth roughly 130 million dollars. He's not getting better...so I just can't commit to that. That being said, if the best offer he gets is around 4-5 years of 18 million/year. I'll take him for that. But that's just being unrealistic in my mind.

2) Jason Bay sucks, and the old statement that "we're paying him, so we're playing him" is BS.( I hated him BEFORE we signed him ) Giving him AB's hurts this team. That being said, we can't afford to release him. Instead, I think he should just hit against Lefties. His numbers are much better against LHP. So signing an OF who can hit RHP and also have positional flexibility in case of injuries is a necessity.

3) Need another Starter. The Hope for Pelfrey is over (I want him untendered). Cap was solid. Let's bring him back. I like Paul Maholm. With Pittsburgh having to pick between bringing Cedeno, Doumit, and Maholm back, Maholm may go. Also, his injury to end last season will bring down his asking price. Overall, he's a solid 2+ WAR/Year pitcher under 30. I don't think I need to prove his worth as a 3-4 starter in our rotation.

4) Bring in Joe Nathan. His value is down. NL hitters aren't familiar with him. I'll give him a chance considering his velocity drop wasn't major.

5) Bring in a good fielding backup SS purely as a late inning fielding replacement, and occasional 8 hitter.

Additions:

1) David Dejesus- 2 years 10 mil with club option for 3rd.

2) Paul Maholm - 3 years  14.5 mil with club option for 4th

3) Joe Nathan - 1 year 6 mil (with incentive of 35 saves taking it to 10 mil) with club option worth 10 mil for 2012

4) Jack Wilson - 1 year 1 mil.

Losses:

1) Jose Reyes

2) Mike Pelfrey

3) Ryoto Igarashi

4) Taylor Buchholtz

5) Willie Harris

6) Jason Isringhausen

7) Manny Acosta

C- Josh Thole -1 WAR- 450k

1B - Ike Davis - 4 WAR - 450k

2B- Daniel Murphy - 2.5 WAR -450k

SS- Ruben Tejada - 2 WAR - 450k

3B- David Wright - 3 WAR - 15.25 mil

LF- Jason Bay/David Dejesus - 1 WAR/2 WAR - 18.1 mil/ 5 mil

CF- Angel Pagan - 2 WAR - 5 mil

RF- Lucas Duda 2 WAR - 450k

B- Ronny Paulino - .5 WAR - 1.8 mil

B- Nick Evans - .2 WAR -450k

B- Justin Turner - .5 WAR - 450k

B- Jack Wilson - .1 WAR - 1 mil

SP- Johan Santana - 3 WAR -24 mil

SP- Jonathan Niese - 2 WAR - 450k

SP- Paul Maholm - 2 WAR - 5 mil

SP- RA Dickey - 2 WAR - 4.75 mil

SP- Chris Capuano - 1 WAR- 5 mil

LR- Dillon Gee - 0.3 WAR- 450k

MR - Tim Byrdak - 0.2 WAR - 1.2 mil

MR - D.J. Carrasco - .2 WAR - 1.2 mil

MR- Chris Schwinden - .2 WAR - 450k

MR - Daniel Herrera - .2 WAR - 450k

SU - Bobby Parnell - .5 WAR - 450k

CL- Joe Nathan - 1.5 WAR - 6 mil

If you think my dollar values are slightly short for Free Agents, No big deal. The payroll for this roster is 96.8, so add on where you're unsatisfied.

My plan attempts to do 4 things: 1) Minimize Jason Bay plate appearances  2) Improve Starting Pitching 3) Get a closer 4) Minimize future large problem contracts to make room for guys like Kirk, Havens, Flores, Mejia, Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, etc.

Whatcha think?

Question: How can we improve the quality of this roster in the short and long term in a cost efficient and timely manner?

Problems/Holes/Issues:

I’ve considered 5 glaring areas of interest that are able to be ameliorated before next season.

1)      Second Base

2)     The Bench-How to have options off the pine that can put up passable numbers without taxing the minor league system

3)      The OF situation-What to do with Beltran going forward

4)      The Rotation-particularly with Santana out, the absence of any arm that has shown more than 1-2 years of reliable consistency.

5)     The Bullpen-How to take a handful of expendable arms and create a cohesive effective unit

My rationale: I’m a stat head like most of you. Unlike the Minaya administration, I do place considerable stock in fielding metrics, but I’m certainly not Jack Z in Seattle I tend to give more weight to hitting.  We are at a crossroads here today.   Our homegrown talent of Davis/Wright/Reyes should net us 10+ WAR next year. I’ve never seen a problem with any of them. My job is to build the best team, not the luckiest team. The best team doesn’t always win the World Series.  But the best team will always be in the hunt. 

The Mets issue has always been the sprinkles to the cake.  When we brought in the three amigos (Delgado, Beltran, Pedro) to be the batter, we topped that cake with Damion Easley, Shawn Green, and Moises Alou. While the cake was good at first, the more bites you took the less you enjoyed it  Good Drafting and proper talent evaluation could’ve prevented us from reaching this point, but we are where we are.

I’ve never been one to believe that players can’t play in New York, despite the mumblings of Joba the Francesser. Jason Bay has an awful contract and he was a terrible signing before he stepped foot on the field. But players like him and Ollie just can’t be dealt in a way that would benefit the team.  They’re not going anywhere.

Let’s take a look at some moves:

1/3) Carlos Beltran + Lucas Duda + Ryota Igarashi + 10 mil + Brad Holt + Kyle Allen (edited)  for BJ Upton + Jason Bartlett

Reasoning: Beltran’s legs push him to right field, but he should have a healthy enough bat to rake .370 wOBA.  I doubt his ability to reach 120 games this season. But if he can touch 500 PA’s and plays Center in Tampa. Without a huge dropoff, he should put up ~3.5 WAR. Beltran should also net the Rays 2 draft picks at the end of the year. However, in right field in New York, he does not provide that same value. Upton is a plus fielder with a respectable bat entering his 4th year of service time. Bartlett’s value has been diminished by poor hitting season last year, but he has a great glove, will probably have a considerable rebound and shouldn’t have a problem transitioning to 2B or subbing for Reyes on days he needs a rest. Igarashi gives them an affordable bullpen arm after the departure of Balfour and Soriano while Duda gives them a bat that could excel at the Trop’. The 10mil should cancel out any salary gripes by Tampa.  Considering Upton’s stressed relationship with the Tampa administration which has been going back since to his time in the minors, Citi Field may be the change of scenery he needs.

FUCK to the YES

2)

A) Sign Orlando Cabrera to a 1yr 2mil dollar deal. He’s cheap, he’s got a good glove, not much of a bat.  But without being exposed on an everyday level, his skills may show.

B) Trade Tobi Stoner (edited)  for Jesus Flores- One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Nieve’s arm has been taxed. Flores has been pushed out by Wilson Ramos and Derek Norris. Nieve could possibly start in Washington, Flores could easily backup Thole.

C) Sign Eric Hinske to a 1yr 500k deal. He’s got a good bat, and should be passable at the OF/CI positions for spot starts. Ultimately, he’s a cheap, reliable pickup.

D)  Sign Austin Kearns to a 1yr 500k deal. He has a decent bat, plus glove in right/left. Can you complain?

 4)

A) Trade Matt Harvey, Fernando Martinez, Aderlin Rodriguez, and Jefry Marte to the Royals for Zack Greinke

Reasoning: Didn’t like the Harvey pick, I doubt his ability to start in the long term. F-Mart has never truly performed to his bill. Rodriguez and Marte both have enough question marks to consider them expendable. Greinke has expressed interest in playing in a large market, and the Royals have been rumored to shopping him. He’s under contract until the end of 2012, so he’s not getting a Johan extension until he pitches a least a year in New York. 

Scary...

 B) Sign Erik Bedard to a 1 yr 900k contract with incentives for innings pitched (1 mil/50ip)  topping out at 5 mil for 200+ip (edited):  If he takes the mound this season, it should be a worthy investment.

  


  5)

A) Sign Koji Uehara to a 1yr 3mil deal. A bullpen arm with a lifetime FIP of 3.1? Yes please.

B) Sign Kerry Wood to a 1yr 4mil deal. No compensation given. Should be worthy of a setup role. Hopefully not JJ Putz II.

(with projected 2011 WAR figures)

Gains:

1) BJ Upton = +3.5

2) Jason Bartlett= +1.5

3) Zack Greinke= +6

4) Kerry Wood= +.25

5) Koji Uehara =+1.5

6) Austin Kearns= +.5

7) Jesus Flores= +.5

8) Eric Hinske= +.75

9) Orlando Cabrera =+1

10) Erik Bedard= +1

= +16.5 

Losses

1) Carlos Beltran =+3.5

2) Fernando Martinez =.5

3) Lucas Duda= .5

4) Fernando Nieve=0

5) Ryoto Igarashi=.5

6) Aderlin Rodriguez=0

7) Jefry Marte=0

8) Matt Harvey=.5

9) 10 mil

=5.5 WAR 

                                                                                                                 (2010 Mets=30.4 WAR)

Opening Day Lineup

SS: Jose Reyes

CF: Angel Pagan

3B: David Wright

1B: Ike Davis

LF: BJ Upton

RF: Jason Bay

C: Josh Thole

2B: Jason Bartlett

Starting Rotation 

1) Zack Greinke

2) (Johan Santana)

3) Mike Pelfrey

4) Jon Niese

5) RA Dickey

6) Erik Bedard 

Bullpen

MR: Sean Green

MR: Oliver Perez

MR: Manny Acosta

MR: Bobby Parnell

MR: Koji Uehara

SU: Kerry Wood

CL: Francisco Rodriguez

Minor League System

1) Wilmer Flores

2) Jenrry Mejia

3) Cory Vaughn

4) Juan Urbina

5)  Reese Havens

6) Kirk Nieuwenhuis

7) Zach Lutz

8) Cesar Puello

9) Jeurys Familia

10) Armando Rodriguez

Thoughts?

Well 2010 was done in the spring training, so let's take a peek at 2011.

Moves to be done:

Personnel to let go: Manuel, Minaya.

Players to let Walk: Castillo (If you can pay Frenchy and Escobar 5 mil for nothing,you can pay for Castillo as well) Francoeur, Maine, Kelvim Escobar, Igarashi, Sean Green, Tatis, Dessens, Barajas.

Players to trade: Ollie Perez (If unable to do this, simply keep in minors or hope for breakthrough in Spring Training). Not worth the roster spot.

Personnel to hire: 1) Paul DePodesta or Josh Byrnes. This is probably unrealistic because the Wilpons will feel more comfortable with someone like Ricco who they can control and manipulate, but I'd like someone numbers minded as a complete 180 from the Minaya regime.

2) "Insert anyone who can give a good interview and doesn't believe in the Sac bunt here".

Players to acquire via Free Agency:

1) JJ Hardy- My major controversial plan is to move Reyes to 2nd and put someone with a consistent glove at SS. Reyes isn't an awful fielder (+3.7 career UZR/150) , but an upgrade is necessary for serious playoff contention. (Hardy- +11.9 UZR/150) Plus it may help his poor injury woes. Contract: 2 years 13 mil with club option for 3rd year.

2) Marcus Thames- A solid 10th man who can flat out rake (career 340 wOBA in the AL). Can passably sub for Bay in Left, Pagan in Right or Davis at 1B. Contract: 1 year 1 mil + performance bonuses

3) Jorge De La Rosa- Flying WAY Under the radar. Has put up 3 QS in his last 4 games. Hasn't appeared to have lost velocity since coming off injury either (FB velocity is at 93.6 which is consistent with his career figures). High ERA (5.01) and mediocre record (4-3) should help to drive cost down. This would be a steal in my mind. Contract: 3 years  28 mil + Club option for 4th year.

4) Jake Westbrook- Best out of the mediocre bunch featuring Lilly, Vazquez, and Bonderman. Westbrook has not lost any velocity like Vazquez or Bonderman, and has a career xFIP of 4.02 that has been consistent throughout his career. Contract: 3 years 25 mil + performance bonuses. 

5) Grant Balfour- one of the best relievers in baseball the last few years. He's averaged a 3.58 xFIP the past 3 years while pitching in the AL East. Could easily fit into setup or 7th inning role. Contract: 2 years 10 mil

Players to resign:

Henry Blanco

Lineup:

C) Thole/Blanco

1B) Davis

2B) Reyes

SS) Hardy

3B) Wright

LF) Bay

CF) Beltran

RF) Pagan

B) Thames

B) F-Mart

B) Tejada

B) Hessman

B) Feliciano

Rotation

SP: Santana

SP: De La Rosa

SP: Westbrook

SP: Pelfrey

SP: Niese

SS: Dickey

MR: Gee

MR: Parnell

MR:Valdes

MR: Acosta

SU: Balfour

SU: Takahashi

CL: Rodriguez

Thoughts?

Let me be the first to say that I have loved the Mets since birth, and have suffered as you all have with this love. Though I believe that losing this season (as in letting Minaya ride it out and not make any significant transactions) is for the best.

Here's why:

Regardless of the health of our key players (or fringe players for that matter), the predictions that all of us with any statistical background have made will probably come true. The Mets will finish under 500, due to utter incompetence on the part of Omar Minaya (perhaps the most frustrating part is watching Ollie today while Carlos Zambrano isn't even good enough for the Cubs rotation...).

With that in mind, this is my "goal" for 2010.

1) Mets go 70-92. or some other ridiculous record

2) The Wilpon's seeing the light and amidst cries from the fanbase, fire Omar Minaya (I'm assuming Jerry is gone by August).

3) Omar is replaced a GM with a head (not just a gut), Thad Levine, Damon Oppenheimer, Dan Jennings are all fine (though I have a weird feeling the Mets will look within)

4) With a good GM, there is no 4.

With a title like that, it's tough for this post not to sound embellished. I will try to be as clear and neutral as I present this but I am not perfect. 

As far as 2010 is concerned. I have thrown in the towel. It's not really a matter of statistical nitpicking or exaggerated pessimism, there's just simply no way I can envision the Mets return to prominence with the current system we have in the front office.  There are patterns within the organization that are simply unacceptable when building a respectable franchise that must be stopped.

For Example

1) Limited Allocation of Funds towards the draft....combined with poor player management at the minor league levels: (http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1763) That table is simply unacceptable. The in the front office seems to be that the majority of home grown talent will either come from Latin America or a handful of late draft picks. If you look at the rosters of the World Series teams this year you will notice that the majority of their players are coming from within. I'm not sticking a fork in guys like FMart and Mejia but when you're just relying on hope and prayer, a change is in order.  (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/26/1101719/comparing-the-phillies-and-the)

2) Absence of Sophisticated Statistical Assessment in Player Evaluation: Let's face it...the teams at the top right now are all engineered by stat oriented guys: Andrew Friedman, Theo Epstein, Brian Cashman. if the Mets are going to be one of those teams on the way up they're going to need one of two things: A ridiculous amount of luck or a a new stat-oriented guy in charge. I've heard John Ricco is a numbers guy (though I'm weary about promoting from within) and there are plenty of others out there who would qualify (I really like Thad Levine from the Rangers).  Compare a guy like Friedman (http://www.draysbay.com/2009/11/16/1157546/tampa-bay-rays-gm-andrew-friedman) to Omar. Someone clearly has an idea what's going on...and someone else doesn't. 

I think that's a good place to stop and take criticism/questions. Please do so politely and constructively. 

The Mets ended 2009 with the 4th lowest team WAR in baseball at 12.1. 

The losses of Fernando Tatis (1.5 WAR), Ramon Castro (.5 WAR), Ryan Church (.4 WAR), Brian Schneider (.3 WAR), Cory Sullivan (.1 WAR) and Gary Sheffield (.1 WAR) bring that number down to 9.2 WAR while the addition of Henry Blanco this offseason brings the figure back up to around 10 WAR (good for 2nd lowest in baseball behind the Royals according to 2009 figures). 

Now clearly the Mets offseason plans are incomplete though the market is certainly not the same as it was in November. Here's a couple of non-long-term-devastating solutions to perhaps provide improvement for 2010 and beyond. 

1) Sign Matt Holliday to a 6 Year 110 mil contract.  To me, Holliday is certainly a safer bet than Bay, and he is a top 15 player in baseball according to WAR (while Bay doesn't crack the top 50). If the Mets are willing to pay Bay around 15-16mil annually, paying Matt Holliday for better production at only a 2 mil increase seems like a no-brainer. 

2) Sign Ben Sheets. Is it risky? Sure. But for a player with a career FIP of 3.55 over a stretch of 1400 innings, I will take the risk. I think something in the neighborhood of 7-8 mil given his circumstances would suffice. 

3) Sign Carlos Delgado. He made 3.5 mil last season, and giving him an incentive laden 2-3mil contract seems appropriate. He is coming off a full year of recovery time, and there's no reason to believe he can't hit in a part time role. 

4) Sign Ryan Garko. Garko absolutely mashes LHP to a tune of 313/392/495. Platooned with Delgado's 287/399/582 career numbers against RHP, there's no reason to believe that these 2 wouldn't make a great platoon. Garko is an adequate fielder as well at 1B and he has experience as an OF barring catastrophic injury.  I think he can be had for a contract in the neighborhood of 1-4 mil. 

5) Trade for Luis Castillo for Jeremy Bonderman.  To me this deal makes sense. The Tigers have a bunch of low starters such as Coke, Galarraga, Bonine, and Robertson who will probably duke it out for the 4th/5th spot in the rotation until Casey Crosby comes up. Scott Sizemore is 25, and far from a guarantee to produce in the majors and already has a broken fibula and ankle (both late last year) on his injury history list. Bonderman makes 12.5 for 2009 and is then a FA. Given a good bounce back season (he has a 4.17 career WAR), he can be worth Type A compensation, and gives us flexibility heading into the 2010 Free Agency as opposed to having contracts for Pineiro or Garland on the books. Furthermore, the Tigers shave 6.5 million in salary for 2010 and improve their 2B position. 

6) Sign a 2B to a 1 year deal.  There are still a ton of capable 2B out on the market such as Adam Kennedy, Ronnie Belliard, and Kelly Johnson.  All 3 are improvements over Castillo, and probably won't be as expensive. 

Ideal situation:

10.1 WAR (current team) + Holliday (5.7 WAR), + Sheets (est. 3 WAR), + Bonderman (est. 2 WAR), + Garko (est. 1 WAR) + (est. 1.5 WAR) + Kelly Johnson (est. 1.5 WAR). -  Luis Castillo (1.6 WAR) = 23.1 (good enough for 4th in NL according to 2008 numbers). 

Cost for 2010:    18.5 + 8 + 12.5 + 3 + 3 + 4 - 6= 43.5 mil + current payroll. 

Gain from 2010: 2 Type A Free Agents. 

Contracts on the hook for 2011 and on: only Matt Holliday. 

Regardless of If we go with the assumption that Holliday is not receiving an 8 year deal, but in fact a 6 year deal, The Cardinals are refusing to go above about the 16 million mark. With this in mind, let's not forget that Holliday is (assuming 4+WAR production) at least a 17-19 million dollar player Holliday vs. Bay Value. Furthermore, Bay's value is in the neighborhood of 10 mil. Now given these facts and the hot stove news we've heard so far we can declare 3 things. 

1) The Cardinals offer (which is a steal) stands as the leading offer

2) The Mets have offered Bay but not Holliday

3) Regardless of the figures. If we sign Bay and Holliday signs for a deal worth less than 21 million annually---we have failed. 

Furthermore: I think it's important to ask Mets fans what are they looking for with their new catcher. Do they want a better fielder, a better hitter?. Are they willing to sacrifice a lot in fielding for minimal gain in hitting? With these questions in mind, let's consider this: 

Bengie Molina was ranked #102 of 114 active catchers in terms of fielding by Matt Klaassen (now a writer for Fangraphs. Omir Santos was ranked 21st. Now I'm sure it pains Mets fans to see catchers who can't hit (especially after years of Mike Piazza), but for minimal improvement for the bat, it's not worth the drop off in fielding. 

Why? is the only question I'd ask to signing Bay or Molina. 

Even if we assume Minaya's latin bias, which is pretty harsh, though tough to dispute. Why would he pay more money for a catcher when he already has a Puerto Rican catcher who is serviceable. 

ADDED:

Let me add the sensibility into adding Ryan Garko. 

Here's his career triple slash against LHP over 485 PA's : 313/392/495

Murphy's career numbers against LHP over 115 PA's: 240/289/442

But Murphy's career #'s against RHP over 592 PA's: 282/340/436

...small note though: Nick Evans career figures against LHP over 110 PA's: 320/382/490. 

Overall, the idea is this. It would not be wise to spend significant money for a 1B this offseason. However, it is possible to get significantly better production out of the position---Platoon. Either Garko and Murphy or Evans and Murphy but the numbers do not lie. 

Well, this is perhaps my fantasy. But to me this all makes sense.

1) Make a push for Matt Holliday

Going by some calculations over at Drivelinemechanics, I think a contract in the range of 5 yrs, 90-100mil is fair (Holiday is not Teixeira and 18mil+/yr is what Carlos Beltran is making). I wouldn't go above 20 mil/yr. Overall personal projection: 5 years 18.5 per year. 92 mil total.

2) Sign Rich Harden

I pick him because I believe that Harden's injury woes are behind him and is undervalued in the market. His days spent on the DL have decreased from 100 to 38, to 24 last year while he has never had TJ,

Overall Personal Projection:  Sign him to an escalator laden contract worth 2 years 11 mil guaranteed (5 mil in 2010, 6 mil in 2011 guaranteed, and a club option 3rdyear worth 4 mil. The salary increases to 10mil/year if Harden gets 15 Quality Starts that year. 

3) Fill the bench with high wOBA and/or good fielding players. 

I think bringing in players such as Jamey Carroll, and even Matt Murton could help the team (though Carroll looks like a tough sign—so we may have to settle for someone likeBobby Crosby), aside from that, Pagan, Murphy and Santos make a pretty awesome bench. –about 6-7 WAR combined.  Sign them to the league minimum ~400k

4) Grab Greg Zaun

  He has one of the best gloves at the position and a good enough bat to suffice for a catcher. Also no draft pick compensation. 

Personal Projection: A one year deal worth 2.5 mil with a club option worth 1.5 mil in 2011.

5) Move Oliver Perez to the Bullpen

Keeping him as a starter is a death wish regardless of what type of hitting you bring in. Also, perhaps the the idea of only having to throw for an inning or may improve his performance (see Joba or Phil Hughes)

6) Do Not Tender Jeff Francoeur

no brainer   

7) Acquire Jonathan Sanchez

Luis Castillo and Nick Evans to the Dodgers

Juan Pierre, Justin Miller, and Eddie Kunz to the Giants

Jonathan Sanchez to the Mets

This deal fills the void for the Giants left by Randy Winn, and with Lincecum in the midst of perhaps signing one of the largest arbitration deals on record, they may not be able to afford to keep Sanchez as well long term.  Kunz is a solid relief arm that may help them, and Miller may progress into a big league starter.   This also allows Bumgarner to go right to the rotation.   It allows the Dodgers to fill their 2B hole without splurging.  Nick Evans gives them a back up for Loney that hits especially well against LHP (as Loney’s strength is RHP), so they can platoon those without having to get a 40 year old 1B like Thome or Giambi.  Finally, Sanchez is an awesome lefty 4 starter, and is a better option than someone like Randy Wolf.  

8) Acquire Carl Crawford and Grant Balfour

Package Brad Holt, Jefry Marte, and Jenrry Mejia (and if need be: Dillon Gee ) to the Rays for Crawford and Balfour

Crawford is one of the best fielders in baseball and his skill set is perfect for Citifield. Balfour has had a solid FIP throughout his career and would be a great help to the bullpen perhaps as a setup man. He may not be tendered by the Rays anyway, so this would not be a huge loss for them (especially with the rise of players like Mcgee, Hellickson, Davis, etc. Mejia and Holt both are huge red flags for me, as Holt’s lack of secondary pitches and Mejia’s wild command, coupled with a lack of positive experience at higher levels makes them expendable in my eyes. Under this plan, the Mets retain Tejada, Flores, Davis, Nieuwenhuis, F-Mart, and Havens so it’s far from a complete depletion of the system. Furthermore, all signs are pointing at Mejia making a switch to the bullpen, decreasing his value. 

9) Sign Nick Johnson.

He’s a year and a half younger than Overbay, puts up better numbers with the bat, and doesn’t strike out. Also I’d only play him 65% of the time and give the other 35% to Daniel Murphy and if possible, a sept callup of Ike Davis. Meaning, Nick won’t have the pressure of playing 6 games a week—only about 4. Also, unlike his prior teams, he’d be hitting lower in the lineup, putting him under less pressure to get on base, and perhaps Murphy would be better if he only played 30% of the time, a la Omir Santos last year. 

Personal Projection: a 1 year deal worth 5 mil with a club option for 2011 worth 2.5 mil. 

10) Sign Chone Figgins

I like him a lot. He can play a billion positions, all with respectable UZRs. Consistently puts up good WAR #’s, and has performed this well in the AL—a switch to the NL may be rough at first but will definitely be worth it in the long term.

Personal Projection: A 3 year deal worth 28 million: 2010: 9mil    2011: 9 mil    2012: 10 mil

11)  Bring back Sean Green or grab Chad Bradford

These moves are almost the same in my mind as Bradford’s health risk compensates for Green’s slightly worse performance.

Either way, I wouldn't spend more than 600k

Projected Salaries (4 mil is a rough estimate of Jonathan Sanchez's arbitration case) 

C) Greg Zaun 2.5 mil

1B) Nick Johnson 5 mil

2B) Chone Figgins 9 mil

SS) Jose Reyes 9 mil

3B) David Wright 10  mil

LF) Matt Holliday 18.5 mil

CF) Carlos Beltran 18.5 mil

RF) Carl Crawford 10 mil

_________________

82.5 mil

B) Daniel Murphy 400k

B) Bobby Crosby 400k

B) Omir Santos 400k

B) Matt Murton 400k

B) Angel Pagan 600k

__________________

2.2 mil

SP) Johan Santana 21mil

SP) Rich Harden 7mil

SP) Mike Pelfrey 500k

SP) Jonathan Sanchez 4 mil

SP) John Maine 4mil

___________________

36.5 mil

LR/Spot Starter) Jon Niese 400k

MR) Bobby Parnell 400k

MR) Pedro Feliciano 1.2 mil

MR) Sean Green 400k

MR) Oliver Perez 12 mil

SU) Grant Balfour 1.5 mil

CL) Francisco Rodriguez 11.5 mil

__________________

27.4 mil

 _____________________

148.6 mil

Thanks

For most of you outside of the NY and immune to the hysteria of NY sports radio with callers who suggest the Mets "Package Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy and a prospect for Joe Mauer or Miguel Cabrera" ---I envy you. It's at that point that I turn on the Ipod and turn off the radio.

So in reaction to my frustration with these illogical individuals that have become the laughing stock of most baseball fans, I give you my *perhaps* sensible wish for the Mets front office this offseason.

1) Make a push for Matt Holliday= Going by some calculations over at Drivelinemechanics, I think a contract in the range of 5 yrs, 90-100mil is fair (Holiday is not Teixeira and 18mil+/yr is what Carlos Beltran is making). I wouldn't go above 20 mil/yr 

2) Sign 2 SP's---preferably Rich Harden and Justin Duchsherer.  I pick these 2 because I believe that Harden's injury woes are behind him and is undervalued in the market and Duchsherer for the same reason. I sign them both for incentive laden contracts worth about 3-4 years. Harden's with a floor of 6 mil/yr and ceiling of 12mil/yr, Duke's with a floor of 4 mil/yr, and ceiling of 10 mil/yr.--------------Ideally the contracts would be a 3 year deal for both. Harden's worth about 32 mil. Duke's- 20 mil. 

3) Fill the bench with high wOBA and/or good fielding players. I think bringing in players such as Jamey Carroll, Scott Podsednik, and even Jason Giambi could help the team. 

4) Sign good fielding backup catcher that is not an A or B free agent--Ideally  Henry Blanco

5) Move Oliver Perez to the Bullpen

6) Sit Jeff Francoeur and start Angel Pagan --numbers speak for themselves, don't expect much argument over this. 

With these moves in mind the lineup would look like this:

Position/Name/Salary/wOBA/UZR above average/WAR  for 2009 (or 2008 if significantly injured in 09')...Also Catching stats are taken from calculations over at Driveline Mechanics (http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in)

(WAR, Fielding Numbers and wOBA is taken from Fangraphs.com, Salaries from Cot's baseball contracts and/or anticipated values)

C) Omir Santos 400k/298/ 2.4/1.0

1B) Daniel Murphy 400k/318/2.2/.6

2B) Luis Castillo 6mil/337/-10.4/1.6

SS) Jose Reyes 9mil/366/0/5.9   (08)

3B) David Wright 10mil/368/-10.4/3.4

LF) Matt Holiday 19mil/390/5.7/5.7

CF) Carlos Beltran 18.5mil/380/8.8/6.7 (08)

RF) Angel Pagan 400k/358/5.8/2.8

B) Jeff Francoeur ~4mil/313/-6.1/0

B) Jason Giambi (minor league contract) 400k/327/-5.5/-.2

B) Scott Podsednik  600k/338/-1.4/1.7

B) Jamey Carroll 800k/317/5.0/1.5

B) Henry Blanco 400k/310/5.7/1.2

B)  Nick Evans 400k/287/-3.1/-.5

Pitching stats are taken from Fangraphs. 

Position/Name/Salary/FIP/WAR

SP) Johan Santana 21mil/3.79/2.8

SP) Rich Harden 6mil/4.35/1.7

SP) Justin Duchsherer 4mil/3.69/3 (08)

SP) Mike Pelfrey 500k/4.39/1.8

SP) John Maine 3mil/4.57/.6

LR/Spot Starter) Jon Niese 400k/3.25/.6

MR) Sean Green 400k/4.42/-.1

MR) Bobby Parnell 400k/4.3/.5

MR) Pedro Feliciano ~1.8/3.55/.6

SU) Oliver Perez 12mil/6.40/-.8

CL) Francisco Rodriguez 11.5mil/4.01/.3

 Thoughts? Too ambitious?

18 man league. Cats are HR/OBP/XB    and RA/QS/(a saves/holds/blown saves hybrid stat)

 Lars Anderson

 Adrian Cardenas

Josh Reddick

Michael Ynoa

Aaron Crow

Nick Hagadone

Mike Trout

Anthony Rizzo

Gabriel Noriega 

Jonathan Galvez

Ryan Westmoreland

Jenrry Mejia

Casey Crosby

Jay Jackson

JJ Hoover

Trevor Harden

Oliver Drake

Steven Matz

Matt Harvey

Craig Cooper

Rossmel Perez

Ryan Adams

Jim Negrych 

Ross Seaton

Cody Scarpetta

Wynn Pelzer

Tyson Gillies

Charlie Blackmon

Matt Sulentic

Kyler Burke

Chris Pettit

Ryan Flaherty

TIm Fedroff

Cole St. Clair

Kevin Keyes

Thanks

I'm a realist. The Mets have no chance of making the playoffs. So they should probably start dealing. Let's see if these work

1)Mets trade Carlos Delgado, Sean Green, and Jeff Francouer 

to the Giants for: Tim Alderson and Nate Schierholtz

The trade gives the Giants the power bat they might need during the playoff push with Delgado (assuming he's a step-up from Ishikawa when he gets back---look at his VORP pre-injury), and also gives them a bullpen specialist which will also help for the same purpose. 

For the Mets, it gets them a solid pitcher back, and the Giants have a surplus of pitchers so they may be more willing to part with one. It also gets rid of the brat that is Jeff Francouer and offers Schierholtz the opportunity to start consistently that he didn't get in San-Fran

The other thing that makes this work is Sabean-nuff said. 

Fernando is getting the start tonight in RF. John's stance on FMart and how the Mets have rushed him has been well documented over the past couple years, and I would have to agree with it. Personally, I think he definitely needed to stay down for a few more months, though this seems like Minaya's last stand (amidst reports of him being on the way out if the Mets don't make the post season), and given Martinez' awesome May, it makes the move easier to swallow.

Bring on the uproar 

Let me preface this by saying, I'm sorry if this comes off as spam or an unrelated plug of a film, but let me assure you this is very prevelant to baseball.

Bigger Stronger Faster* is a film in a kind of Morgan Spurlock style, without the bias of course. It is about steroids, it's impact on America, and what is being done about it. Ultimately it tackles sports from baseball, to wrestling, to weight lifting, etc. It interviews athletes, congressmen, doctors, and is basically one of the only, if not the only publication that gives a truely unbiased, clairvoyant view on the steroid issue.

The reason why I take ten minutes out of my life to type this is because I think it's important that us here have a bit of perspective when it comes to this steroid issue (especially given some comments I've seen in the Jordan Shafer reaction thread).

John I also suggest this one to you, I think you'll like it.

I've attached a bunch of reviews at the bottom of the page also. It is considered a top 5 movie for 2008 by Rotten Tomatoes.

I've attached a link at the bottom of this page because I'm sure most of you will probably not go out of your way to purchase this DVD.

The movie is only about an hour and a half, so that shouldn't be too long for you guys.

Rotten Tomatoes reviews

Full Movie Link

(to play the movie, click the play button in the middle of the screen once, it should then turn green after a few seconds. while it's green, hit the play button in the middle of the screen again, and it should start then. If this doesn't work leave a comment, and I'll help)

Thank you.

David

Baseball Scouting is almost as old the game itself. The methods of finding a good baseball player have seemingly stayed pretty consistent over the years until the new millennium. For about a century, the credentials for being a scout would be to have “An eye” for a good baseball player. That hasn’t changed much. Many of us still use our gut to find a good player. It may be a good feeling about watching someone in person, or that a performance looked particularly impressive on a scouting report or a stat sheet, but the whole method of “going with your gut” is certainly not dead.

Moneyball disturbed this tradition in baseball of using your gut by negatively labeling those who don’t use numbers as their means of scouting. It made people pay a lot more attention to the numbers on the right side of the stat sheet such as OBP/Slugging. It made people consider things such as park factors and league adjustments.

Yet despite this shift towards using stats as the sole means of scouting, it certainly has not proved to be the principal way in evaluating talent. The term “tools” is still thrown around which is almost completely independent of numbers, and there is also plenty of weight still put on scouting reports in the baseball community—especially towards young players in low levels.

It seems as if, in general, there’s a very eclectic view of scouting. Sure people will look at the OBP or Slug or WHIP or K/9 but they will also check out the scouting report. I don’t think many people would be completely in favor of someone with an 86mph fastball regardless of performance in AA.

So I turn this to you, my fellow prospectors and baseball fans. What would you consider to be your means of evaluating talent/skill in baseball?

I know everyone has an opinion on this board when it comes to prospects so I thought it would be interesting to get your perspective on what seems like the biggest candy store in all of baseball: The A's farm system.

There are numerous options. For example, what to do with your second baseman---Patterson, Weeks, Cardenas? 

Do you pull the string on Daric Barton who's been awful and injured this year while you have Doolittle and Carter waiting in the wings?

All of these are interesting questions. I just want to hear your answers.

So I'll do it like this. Here's the A's active lineup and farm system. You take this and give me the A's 2010 lineup.

C

1B

2B

SS

3B

OF
OF
OF

DH
SP

SP

SP
SP
SP

RP
RP
RP
CL

C   Kurt Suzuki         

1B *Daric Barton        

2B  Mark Ellis          

3B Jack Hannahan       

SS  Bobby Crosby      

LF  Jack Cust  

CF Carlos Gonzalez   

RF  Emil Brown       

DH  Frank Thomas     

Ryan Sweeney     

Mike Sweeney     

Travis Buck

Donnie Murphy

Rajai Davis  

Eric Chavez  

Wes Bankston 

Rob Bowen

Chris Denorfia      

Matt Murton         

Gregorio Petit     

Brooks Conrad      

Eric Patterson      

Jeff Fiorentino     

Dan Johnson       

SP *Dana Eveland       

SP  Joe Blanton   

SP  Justin Duchscherer 

SP  Rich Harden       

SP  Sean Gallagher     

CL  Huston Street  

RP *Alan Embree  

RP  Santiago Casilla  

RP  Andrew Brown   

RP  Keith Foulke        

Chad Gaudin         

Brad Ziegler     

*Dallas Braden       

Lenny DiNardo       

Joey Devine         

Jerry Blevins     

Kirk Saarloos       

Dan Meyer       

Kiko Calero     

Fernando Hernandez  



C: Landon Powell, 26, AAA
Anthony Recker, 24, AA
Josh Donaldson, 22, A+
Petey Paramore, 21, A-

1B: Sean Doolittle, 21, AA
Chris Carter, 21, A+

2B: Adrian Cardenas, 20, A+
Jemile Weeks, 21, A- 
Eric Patterson, 25, AAA


3B: Jeff Baisley, 25, AAA
Jesus Guzman, 24, AAA

SS: Cliff Pennington, 24, AAA
Dusty Coleman, 21, N/A
Jason Christian, 21, SS
Nino Leyja, 17, RK


OF: Matt Sulentic, 20, A+
Aaron Cunningham, 22, AA
Corey Brown, 22, A+
Rashun Dixon, 17, RK
Jermaine Mitchell, 23, A+

SP: Trever Cahill, 20, AA
Brett Anderson, 20, AA
Gio Gonzalez, 22, AAA
James Simmons, 21, AA
Vin Mazzaro, 21, AA
Arnold Leon, 20, A+/MEX
Henry Rodriguez, 21, A+
Michel Inoa, 16, N/A
Craig Italiano, 22, A+
Tyson Ross, 21, N/A
Fautino De Los Santos, 22, A+ DL
Josh Outman, 23, AA
Michael Madson, 25, AA
Jamie Richmond, 22, A-
Travis Banwart, 22, A+


RP: Sam Demel
Andrew Carignan, 22, AA
Jared Lansford, 21, AA

Ok so I've got a pretty good idea on what I'm going to take with the 12th pick. But now as the draft moves on, I'm kind of at a loss. My next pick is 77 followed by 107 137 and 167 respectively.

So now for the later rounds I turn it over to you, sleepers? There seems to be plenty of high school MI guys that will be down there namely Nick Noonan, Peter Kozma, John Tolisano, maybe Christian Colon

Furthermore, do I go towards college guys like Dootlitle, Cole St. Clair, Josh Horton, Danny Worth or Tommy Hunter?

Or maybe high school guys like Evan Denali, Hunter Morris, Austin Bailey, Drake Britton, Ryan Dent, or Kyle Blair?

Let me hear your thoughts or suggestions, because I'm not sure where guys like Frazier, Ahrens, or Justin Jackson end up.

Hello, this is my first year doing the mock draft on here, but I'm confident that I will do a good job given my knowledge. I will use this thread as an open forum, where anyone who cares enough can evaluate, critize and discuss the draft agenda of the fish.

Let's get started.

The Marlins have five picks to work with

12, 77, 107, 137, and 167.

My plan is like this. I'm looking to take the best player availible at all times, I've seen teams plan around their depth charts in the past, and it rarely works out well, so at all times I'm taking the best player availible.

Furthermore, money is not an issue at this point. We have one of the lowest salaries in the league and we have the freedom to spend money on Boras clients if need be.

Here's what I'm working with in no paticular order

Ross Detwiler
Daniel Moskos
Matt Harvey
Matt Dominguez
Jarrod Parker
Todd Frazier
Kevin Ahrens
Madison Bumgarner
Phillipe Aumont
Blake Beavan
Michael Main
Jason Heyward
and Beau Mills

Personally, I like all the hitters in that group, Beau's "attidude problem" doesn't worry me. I love both Frazier's and Ahrens' bats. Dominguez I like a lot. I feel like Harvey, Detwiler and probably Moskos won't be on the board when 12 comes up, but that doesn't worry me too much.

I like Phillipe Aumont a lot, I can't explain why but I do. I also like Main, as far as pitchers go. I'm starting to shy away from Madison and Jarrod cause I'm a little worried bout their secondary stuff, although they have been very effective with the fastball. I love all the hitters in that pool.

That being said who do you guys think I should take here?

(I'll wait for responses before moving on to other picks)

I know a lot of people here including John and myself love Sulentic. Yet, he's batting under 200 this year.

Obviously, I'm far from drawing conclusions, given the fact that he's right out of high school. What impressed me though is his k/bb rate, which is about at 1.

Though, I haven't seen him, and I know he's not striking out a lot, is he just hitting the ball right to people, or is there something else up.

I guess I'm just trying to rationalize his struggle.

I've been watching this guy a little here and there, and I must say I've been impressed.

I know it's a small sample space, but in a tough hitters park like Clinton, Johnny has put up good numbers

with 14 k's and 15 walks

and ratios of
avg obp slug
333/458/544

I'm starting to like this guy. That being said, it's only been about 80 pa's

I've been searching for a software where you can compose you're own stats and have it do the calculations instead of going by calculator, anyone have anything like this, I remember there was one a couple of years ago but I can't find it

Filler Filler Filler
Filler Filler Filler
Filler Filler Filler
Filler Filler Filler
Filler Filler Filler
Filler Filler Filler

I've been having a little fun, in a secluded sort of way, calculating and adjusting minor league equivelents for the top minor leaguers, incorperating such things as Park Factor, Pitching/Hitting difficulty, and I can say a couple of things, 1) Fernando Martinez didn't come out as good as I expected, minimal power. 2) Jay Bruce can rake, he's got great power numbers.

Now minor league equivalents aren't 100% accurate but they, unlike clear cut minor league stats, are a great use for projection.

The formula is pretty complicated and you can find it on google. I was just asking if I'm the only one that does this?

I need a little help narrowing down some guys for my league, Can you give a little opinion or possibly rank these guys?

Adrian Cardenas
Ryan Adams
Thomas Hickman
Kyler Burke
Preston Mattingly
Jason Place
Jason Taylor
David Christensen
Brent Brewer
William Benson
Matt Sulentic

__________________________________ __________________________________

We'll I just found out first hand that Phil Hughes likes collecting baseball cards, he's on beckett chatting with guys. Wanna ask him some questions, Here's the link to the board, he's the member "nyyphily45". I didn't believe him at first and then he showed substancial photo ID, we're all going nuts over here, it's pretty ridiculous,

If you want to post a message you have to have an id, which is free and takes 3 minutes