SB Nation User Blog: sagecoll

Am I missing something here?

sagecoll — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:06:48 -0000

Regardless of If we go with the assumption that Holliday is not receiving an 8 year deal, but in fact a 6 year deal, The Cardinals are refusing to go above about the 16 million mark. With this in mind, let's not forget that Holliday is (assuming 4+WAR production) at least a 17-19 million dollar player Holliday vs. Bay Value. Furthermore, Bay's value is in the neighborhood of 10 mil. Now given these facts and the hot stove news we've heard so far we can declare 3 things.

1) The Cardinals offer (which is a steal) stands as the leading offer

2) The Mets have offered Bay but not Holliday

3) Regardless of the figures. If we sign Bay and Holliday signs for a deal worth less than 21 million annually---we have failed.

Furthermore: I think it's important to ask Mets fans what are they looking for with their new catcher. Do they want a better fielder, a better hitter?. Are they willing to sacrifice a lot in fielding for minimal gain in hitting? With these questions in mind, let's consider this:

Bengie Molina was ranked #102 of 114 active catchers in terms of fielding by Matt Klaassen (now a writer for Fangraphs. Omir Santos was ranked 21st. Now I'm sure it pains Mets fans to see catchers who can't hit (especially after years of Mike Piazza), but for minimal improvement for the bat, it's not worth the drop off in fielding.

Why? is the only question I'd ask to signing Bay or Molina.

Even if we assume Minaya's latin bias, which is pretty harsh, though tough to dispute. Why would he pay more money for a catcher when he already has a Puerto Rican catcher who is serviceable.

ADDED:

Let me add the sensibility into adding Ryan Garko.

Here's his career triple slash against LHP over 485 PA's : 313/392/495

Murphy's career numbers against LHP over 115 PA's: 240/289/442

But Murphy's career #'s against RHP over 592 PA's: 282/340/436

...small note though: Nick Evans career figures against LHP over 110 PA's: 320/382/490.

Overall, the idea is this. It would not be wise to spend significant money for a 1B this offseason. However, it is possible to get significantly better production out of the position---Platoon. Either Garko and Murphy or Evans and Murphy but the numbers do not lie.

Mechanics Request: Jorge De la Rosa

sagecoll — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:25:53 -0000

Hey Kyle. Just wanted you to take a look at Jorge De la Rosa for fantasy purposes. Looking at some quick video from MLB.com (http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6890163) I can't tell if he's stepping too closed with his front foot or actively decelerating his pitching arm. But those are the first two things that stood out to me. Sorry for the mediocre video.

Thoughts?

Thanks a lot

AAOP: I Defy you to find something better

sagecoll — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:59:21 -0000

Well, this is perhaps my fantasy. But to me this all makes sense.

1) Make a push for Matt Holliday

Going by some calculations over at Drivelinemechanics, I think a contract in the range of 5 yrs, 90-100mil is fair (Holiday is not Teixeira and 18mil+/yr is what Carlos Beltran is making). I wouldn't go above 20 mil/yr. Overall personal projection: 5 years 18.5 per year. 92 mil total.

2) Sign Rich Harden

I pick him because I believe that Harden's injury woes are behind him and is undervalued in the market. His days spent on the DL have decreased from 100 to 38, to 24 last year while he has never had TJ,

Overall Personal Projection: Sign him to an escalator laden contract worth 2 years 11 mil guaranteed (5 mil in 2010, 6 mil in 2011 guaranteed, and a club option 3rdyear worth 4 mil. The salary increases to 10mil/year if Harden gets 15 Quality Starts that year.

3) Fill the bench with high wOBA and/or good fielding players.

I think bringing in players such as Jamey Carroll, and even Matt Murton could help the team (though Carroll looks like a tough sign—so we may have to settle for someone likeBobby Crosby), aside from that, Pagan, Murphy and Santos make a pretty awesome bench. –about 6-7 WAR combined. Sign them to the league minimum ~400k

4) Grab Greg Zaun

He has one of the best gloves at the position and a good enough bat to suffice for a catcher. Also no draft pick compensation.

Personal Projection: A one year deal worth 2.5 mil with a club option worth 1.5 mil in 2011.

5) Move Oliver Perez to the Bullpen

Keeping him as a starter is a death wish regardless of what type of hitting you bring in. Also, perhaps the the idea of only having to throw for an inning or may improve his performance (see Joba or Phil Hughes)

6) Do Not Tender Jeff Francoeur

no brainer

7) Acquire Jonathan Sanchez

Luis Castillo and Nick Evans to the Dodgers

Juan Pierre, Justin Miller, and Eddie Kunz to the Giants

Jonathan Sanchez to the Mets

This deal fills the void for the Giants left by Randy Winn, and with Lincecum in the midst of perhaps signing one of the largest arbitration deals on record, they may not be able to afford to keep Sanchez as well long term. Kunz is a solid relief arm that may help them, and Miller may progress into a big league starter. This also allows Bumgarner to go right to the rotation. It allows the Dodgers to fill their 2B hole without splurging. Nick Evans gives them a back up for Loney that hits especially well against LHP (as Loney’s strength is RHP), so they can platoon those without having to get a 40 year old 1B like Thome or Giambi. Finally, Sanchez is an awesome lefty 4 starter, and is a better option than someone like Randy Wolf.

8) Acquire Carl Crawford and Grant Balfour

Package Brad Holt, Jefry Marte, and Jenrry Mejia (and if need be: Dillon Gee ) to the Rays for Crawford and Balfour

Crawford is one of the best fielders in baseball and his skill set is perfect for Citifield. Balfour has had a solid FIP throughout his career and would be a great help to the bullpen perhaps as a setup man. He may not be tendered by the Rays anyway, so this would not be a huge loss for them (especially with the rise of players like Mcgee, Hellickson, Davis, etc. Mejia and Holt both are huge red flags for me, as Holt’s lack of secondary pitches and Mejia’s wild command, coupled with a lack of positive experience at higher levels makes them expendable in my eyes. Under this plan, the Mets retain Tejada, Flores, Davis, Nieuwenhuis, F-Mart, and Havens so it’s far from a complete depletion of the system. Furthermore, all signs are pointing at Mejia making a switch to the bullpen, decreasing his value.

9) Sign Nick Johnson.

He’s a year and a half younger than Overbay, puts up better numbers with the bat, and doesn’t strike out. Also I’d only play him 65% of the time and give the other 35% to Daniel Murphy and if possible, a sept callup of Ike Davis. Meaning, Nick won’t have the pressure of playing 6 games a week—only about 4. Also, unlike his prior teams, he’d be hitting lower in the lineup, putting him under less pressure to get on base, and perhaps Murphy would be better if he only played 30% of the time, a la Omir Santos last year.

Personal Projection: a 1 year deal worth 5 mil with a club option for 2011 worth 2.5 mil.

10) Sign Chone Figgins

I like him a lot. He can play a billion positions, all with respectable UZRs. Consistently puts up good WAR #’s, and has performed this well in the AL—a switch to the NL may be rough at first but will definitely be worth it in the long term.

Personal Projection: A 3 year deal worth 28 million: 2010: 9mil 2011: 9 mil 2012: 10 mil

11) Bring back Sean Green or grab Chad Bradford

These moves are almost the same in my mind as Bradford’s health risk compensates for Green’s slightly worse performance.

Either way, I wouldn't spend more than 600k

Projected Salaries (4 mil is a rough estimate of Jonathan Sanchez's arbitration case)

C) Greg Zaun 2.5 mil

1B) Nick Johnson 5 mil

2B) Chone Figgins 9 mil

SS) Jose Reyes 9 mil

3B) David Wright 10 mil

LF) Matt Holliday 18.5 mil

CF) Carlos Beltran 18.5 mil

RF) Carl Crawford 10 mil

_________________

82.5 mil

B) Daniel Murphy 400k

B) Bobby Crosby 400k

B) Omir Santos 400k

B) Matt Murton 400k

B) Angel Pagan 600k

__________________

2.2 mil

SP) Johan Santana 21mil

SP) Rich Harden 7mil

SP) Mike Pelfrey 500k

SP) Jonathan Sanchez 4 mil

SP) John Maine 4mil

___________________

36.5 mil

LR/Spot Starter) Jon Niese 400k

MR) Bobby Parnell 400k

MR) Pedro Feliciano 1.2 mil

MR) Sean Green 400k

MR) Oliver Perez 12 mil

SU) Grant Balfour 1.5 mil

CL) Francisco Rodriguez 11.5 mil

__________________

27.4 mil

_____________________

148.6 mil

Thanks

Oh the Mets and what will never happen

sagecoll — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:44:24 -0000

For most of you outside of the NY and immune to the hysteria of NY sports radio with callers who suggest the Mets "Package Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy and a prospect for Joe Mauer or Miguel Cabrera" ---I envy you. It's at that point that I turn on the Ipod and turn off the radio.

So in reaction to my frustration with these illogical individuals that have become the laughing stock of most baseball fans, I give you my *perhaps* sensible wish for the Mets front office this offseason.

1) Make a push for Matt Holliday= Going by some calculations over at Drivelinemechanics, I think a contract in the range of 5 yrs, 90-100mil is fair (Holiday is not Teixeira and 18mil+/yr is what Carlos Beltran is making). I wouldn't go above 20 mil/yr

2) Sign 2 SP's---preferably Rich Harden and Justin Duchsherer. I pick these 2 because I believe that Harden's injury woes are behind him and is undervalued in the market and Duchsherer for the same reason. I sign them both for incentive laden contracts worth about 3-4 years. Harden's with a floor of 6 mil/yr and ceiling of 12mil/yr, Duke's with a floor of 4 mil/yr, and ceiling of 10 mil/yr.--------------Ideally the contracts would be a 3 year deal for both. Harden's worth about 32 mil. Duke's- 20 mil.

3) Fill the bench with high wOBA and/or good fielding players. I think bringing in players such as Jamey Carroll, Scott Podsednik, and even Jason Giambi could help the team.

4) Sign good fielding backup catcher that is not an A or B free agent--Ideally Henry Blanco

5) Move Oliver Perez to the Bullpen

6) Sit Jeff Francoeur and start Angel Pagan --numbers speak for themselves, don't expect much argument over this.

With these moves in mind the lineup would look like this:

Position/Name/Salary/wOBA/UZR above average/WAR for 2009 (or 2008 if significantly injured in 09')...Also Catching stats are taken from calculations over at Driveline Mechanics (http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in)

(WAR, Fielding Numbers and wOBA is taken from Fangraphs.com, Salaries from Cot's baseball contracts and/or anticipated values)

C) Omir Santos 400k/298/ 2.4/1.0

1B) Daniel Murphy 400k/318/2.2/.6

2B) Luis Castillo 6mil/337/-10.4/1.6

SS) Jose Reyes 9mil/366/0/5.9 (08)

3B) David Wright 10mil/368/-10.4/3.4

LF) Matt Holiday 19mil/390/5.7/5.7

CF) Carlos Beltran 18.5mil/380/8.8/6.7 (08)

RF) Angel Pagan 400k/358/5.8/2.8

B) Jeff Francoeur ~4mil/313/-6.1/0

B) Jason Giambi (minor league contract) 400k/327/-5.5/-.2

B) Scott Podsednik 600k/338/-1.4/1.7

B) Jamey Carroll 800k/317/5.0/1.5

B) Henry Blanco 400k/310/5.7/1.2

B) Nick Evans 400k/287/-3.1/-.5

Pitching stats are taken from Fangraphs.

Position/Name/Salary/FIP/WAR

SP) Johan Santana 21mil/3.79/2.8

SP) Rich Harden 6mil/4.35/1.7

SP) Justin Duchsherer 4mil/3.69/3 (08)

SP) Mike Pelfrey 500k/4.39/1.8

SP) John Maine 3mil/4.57/.6

LR/Spot Starter) Jon Niese 400k/3.25/.6

MR) Sean Green 400k/4.42/-.1

MR) Bobby Parnell 400k/4.3/.5

MR) Pedro Feliciano ~1.8/3.55/.6

SU) Oliver Perez 12mil/6.40/-.8

CL) Francisco Rodriguez 11.5mil/4.01/.3

Thoughts? Too ambitious?

Rank This DEEP farm please

sagecoll — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 21:39:23 -0000

18 man league. Cats are HR/OBP/XB and RA/QS/(a saves/holds/blown saves hybrid stat)

Lars Anderson

Adrian Cardenas

Josh Reddick

Michael Ynoa

Aaron Crow

Nick Hagadone

Mike Trout

Anthony Rizzo

Gabriel Noriega

Jonathan Galvez

Ryan Westmoreland

Jenrry Mejia

Casey Crosby

Jay Jackson

JJ Hoover

Trevor Harden

Oliver Drake

Steven Matz

Matt Harvey

Craig Cooper

Rossmel Perez

Ryan Adams

Jim Negrych

Ross Seaton

Cody Scarpetta

Wynn Pelzer

Tyson Gillies

Charlie Blackmon

Matt Sulentic

Kyler Burke

Chris Pettit

Ryan Flaherty

TIm Fedroff

Cole St. Clair

Kevin Keyes

Thanks

1 Hopefully sensible Trade Proposition

sagecoll — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 22:19:46 -0000

I'm a realist. The Mets have no chance of making the playoffs. So they should probably start dealing. Let's see if these work

1)Mets trade Carlos Delgado, Sean Green, and Jeff Francouer

to the Giants for: Tim Alderson and Nate Schierholtz

The trade gives the Giants the power bat they might need during the playoff push with Delgado (assuming he's a step-up from Ishikawa when he gets back---look at his VORP pre-injury), and also gives them a bullpen specialist which will also help for the same purpose.

For the Mets, it gets them a solid pitcher back, and the Giants have a surplus of pitchers so they may be more willing to part with one. It also gets rid of the brat that is Jeff Francouer and offers Schierholtz the opportunity to start consistently that he didn't get in San-Fran

The other thing that makes this work is Sabean-nuff said.

And so the FMART era has begun

sagecoll — Tue, 26 May 2009 21:36:05 -0000

Fernando is getting the start tonight in RF. John's stance on FMart and how the Mets have rushed him has been well documented over the past couple years, and I would have to agree with it. Personally, I think he definitely needed to stay down for a few more months, though this seems like Minaya's last stand (amidst reports of him being on the way out if the Mets don't make the post season), and given Martinez' awesome May, it makes the move easier to swallow.

Bring on the uproar

Koji Uehara

sagecoll — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 21:38:41 -0000

Hey Kyle, is it possible for you to take a look at Koji Uehara. I can't really tell much about his mechanics aside from that he has a decent tempo. I know there's plenty of accessible footage out there: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TausE4nhypk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuqAVK0puYA&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfU8kVghkGU&feature=related

Thanks Kyle, it is greatly appreciated. Have a nice day. Thanks

Bigger Stronger Faster*

sagecoll — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 02:54:33 -0000

Let me preface this by saying, I'm sorry if this comes off as spam or an unrelated plug of a film, but let me assure you this is very prevelant to baseball.

Bigger Stronger Faster* is a film in a kind of Morgan Spurlock style, without the bias of course. It is about steroids, it's impact on America, and what is being done about it. Ultimately it tackles sports from baseball, to wrestling, to weight lifting, etc. It interviews athletes, congressmen, doctors, and is basically one of the only, if not the only publication that gives a truely unbiased, clairvoyant view on the steroid issue.

The reason why I take ten minutes out of my life to type this is because I think it's important that us here have a bit of perspective when it comes to this steroid issue (especially given some comments I've seen in the Jordan Shafer reaction thread).

John I also suggest this one to you, I think you'll like it.

I've attached a bunch of reviews at the bottom of the page also. It is considered a top 5 movie for 2008 by Rotten Tomatoes.

I've attached a link at the bottom of this page because I'm sure most of you will probably not go out of your way to purchase this DVD.

The movie is only about an hour and a half, so that shouldn't be too long for you guys.

Rotten Tomatoes reviews

Full Movie Link

(to play the movie, click the play button in the middle of the screen once, it should then turn green after a few seconds. while it's green, hit the play button in the middle of the screen again, and it should start then. If this doesn't work leave a comment, and I'll help)

Thank you.

David

The General Perception

sagecoll — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 18:58:43 -0000

Baseball Scouting is almost as old the game itself. The methods of finding a good baseball player have seemingly stayed pretty consistent over the years until the new millennium. For about a century, the credentials for being a scout would be to have “An eye” for a good baseball player. That hasn’t changed much. Many of us still use our gut to find a good player. It may be a good feeling about watching someone in person, or that a performance looked particularly impressive on a scouting report or a stat sheet, but the whole method of “going with your gut” is certainly not dead.

Moneyball disturbed this tradition in baseball of using your gut by negatively labeling those who don’t use numbers as their means of scouting. It made people pay a lot more attention to the numbers on the right side of the stat sheet such as OBP/Slugging. It made people consider things such as park factors and league adjustments.

Yet despite this shift towards using stats as the sole means of scouting, it certainly has not proved to be the principal way in evaluating talent. The term “tools” is still thrown around which is almost completely independent of numbers, and there is also plenty of weight still put on scouting reports in the baseball community—especially towards young players in low levels.

It seems as if, in general, there’s a very eclectic view of scouting. Sure people will look at the OBP or Slug or WHIP or K/9 but they will also check out the scouting report. I don’t think many people would be completely in favor of someone with an 86mph fastball regardless of performance in AA.

So I turn this to you, my fellow prospectors and baseball fans. What would you consider to be your means of evaluating talent/skill in baseball?