[Bumped! Enjoy, and as always keep the conversation civil with fans of the other team. ~DF]

I have seen more than my share of both teams' play this season.

You guys should destroy us in this series. Should. Even if Bynum is out or ineffective, pounding it inside to Gasol and Odom should be enough to win the series for you. Thunder late game execution has been awful all year and I think it might actually have gotten worse recently because poor offensive schemes have been compounded by end-of-season fatigue. Besides Shawn Marion, Ron Artest plays Durant the fiercest in the league, and he really gets inside KD’s head.

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Filched off kottke.

Samuel Arbesman proposes the introduction of the time-in.

To quantify how powerful a tool the time-in would be, I ran this idea by Brian Burke, the head of the website Advanced NFL Stats. Burke has developed a computational model that outputs the win-probability for a team over the course of a game. Assuming that it would only be used by the leading team on defense near the end of the game when there’s a small point difference, he found the time-in could produce up to a one-third drop in win probability for the losing team.

Following a discussion in a OT LL thread, if you were God of Football for a day, what one rule change would you introduce?

Personally, I think it'd be interesting to see what the game would look like if you relaxed the rules about eligible receivers. I'd be pumped to see some desperate team try out the A-11.

via Kevin Pelton

Leon Powe is a risk of a different kind, as the torn ACL he suffered in last year's postseason will cost him at least the start of the 2009-10 campaign and could render him ineffective until the following season. Nonetheless, a non-contending team would be wise to sign Powe to a cheap two- or three-year deal with heavy incentives and small guarantees, if possible. When healthy, Powe has been highly productive; on a per-minute basis, he belonged with Lee and Millsap last season. He's an extraordinarily efficient offensive player who can create for himself, who rebounds and who is more than passable defensively.

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I’m expecting 37 wins and wouldn’t be surprised with bubbling right around .500. 33 and under and I’m disappointed. Here's how I got there: If you accept that the Thunder were a true talent 20-30 team (as opposed to a 23-59 team), that’s a win percentage of .400. Meaning the team that took to the court in the second half would, over a full season, net 32.8 wins. I’m tacking 5 wins onto my expectations because of the addition of James Harden, full seasons from Livingston, Krstic, White, and Thabo, and improved play from Westbrook.

Now, say OKC gets lucky and reaches the upper end of my projection. How do the playoff chances look?

LA, Denver, Utah, Portland, Dallas, and San Antonio are all locks. These teams are all clearly better than OKC and only catastrophe would allow one of them to fall out of the playoffs. New Orleans is a team in trouble, but they still won 49 games last year, and if they can manage to not take on too much water, they should be fine for a 7th or 8th seed. Now, what has to happen for either Houston to bubble out?

I’ve learned to never underestimate the Houston Rockets. Honestly, there’s nothing this team can do that would really shock me. They could finish with the best record in the league and I’d shrug my shoulders and say “that’s Daryl Morey.” On the other hand, their top two scoring options are… Luis Scola and Trevor Ariza? Really? I know that team makes its cheddar on defense, but wow. And now with Yao out, who’s manning the middle? 6′8″ Joey Dorsey? 6′6″ Chuck Hayes? I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say that Houston has a tough road back to the playoffs, and it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see them scraping along the bottom of the lottery barrel.

To my mind, Phoenix, Golden State and OKC are the only teams in the West that can feasibly make a run at Houston’s spot. I don’t think it would take a huge amount of luck for OKC to have a better season than both Phoenix and Golden State. Some luck, yes, but it doesn’t seem all that far fetched.

via.

Seems like an odd move to me, especially if Dallas offered him less than the full MLE. Even if he was offered the full mid-level, seems like it'd be prudent to see if any other teams would be willing to offer the same or if OKC was willing to offer a bit more. I really really wanted Gortat for this team, but I wish him the best on the Mavs. Can't win every battle, blah blah blah; come on down Paul Millsap!

Well, it's certainly been an eventful few days leading up to the draft. Lots of players and picks have been flying around, and I thought it might be useful to roundup the trades that have happened so far. I'll try to keep this updated as I hear more. This post can serve as a general reacts page. Also, please let me know if there's anything I missed.

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So I was playing around with this spreadsheet of draftee stats (by Brett of Hoopinion, h/t Truehoop), and one player leaped up at me. Senior John Bryant of Santa Clara.

Age: 22 / Height: 6'11" / Weight: 275 / Center

31min / .65 TS% / 23.6 PTS on 15.0 FGA / 5.5 ORB / 12.9 DRB / 18.5 TRB / 3.3 BLK / 3.2 TO / 3.3 PF

*All stats pace adjusted per 40min

Those stats aren't a one year fluke. Bryant will be graduating from Santa Clara with the team records in rebounds (1152), blocks (246) and points (1667). Now, obvious small-school caveats apply; Bryant's numbers are pretty spectacular – comparable and often favorable to Griffin's or Blair's or Hansborough's – but let's not forget that he was playing in the WCC.

On the other hand, he's shown a commitment to work ethic and fitness, dropping over 90 pounds since entering school as a freshman and doing a good job of keeping the weight off. In his only youtube highlight video, he shows a nice back-to-the-basket offensive game with decent footwork and an effective up-and-under move. He's no athletic beast, but he's got solid fundamentals and the size to make them work. He seems to have his head on straight.

Now, here's the thing I can't figure out: he's on no one's board. He wasn't invited to the combine. He's not on any mock drafts that I can find. It's pretty difficult to find any draft scouting reports on him. Honestly, I don't get it. Bryant's a super-productive, hard-working big man with the only knocks being his lack of athleticism and the fact that he didn't get to play regularly against stiffer competition. It occurred to me that maybe in the few games against bigger schools that he might have been exposed, but no; looking at his game log he held his own just fine.

So... anyone got the dirt on this guy? What am I missing? Or am I right in thinking that he could be a great second round pickup?

I'm starting to believe that Presti trades the pick regardless of whether Rubio is there or not. What this team needs more than anything else is depth, depth, depth. Shooting, post-defense, rebounding: these are all things you can get from role players. If rumors are true, Presti's already in talks with the Wiz to exchange picks and pick up JaVale McGee in the process. JaVale McGee: a 7'0 project rookie who can block shots, get boards, run the floor and shoot the J. Sound like someone the Thunder could use? Pair him with Harden or DeRozen and I'd say you got a hell of a lot of value out of the third overall pick, especially in this draft where the difference between the 3rd and 12th best prospects is negligible. I don't think anyone can say with any certainty whether Thabeet will be a more productive player than Jordan Hill, Tyreke Evans, James Harden, DeMar DeRozen, or even DeJuan Blair. Not that McGee will be the trade, but there are interesting trades to be found on any team that's motivated to move up, the majority of which I would take over gambling on Thabeet or Rubio.

Why isn't there more of it, Japanese/Korean style? I would have to think that a really rigorous fielding practice schedule would reduce the number of errors on this team, which lately has gotten pretty ridiculous. Every once in a while, a team will play poor defense and take extended fielding practice, but my impression is that MLB fielding sessions are nothing compared to the Asian counterparts. I'd love to see Bobby Valentine manage a big league team again, just for curiosity's sake.

Apologies if this is already well-known. I'd only just discovered it.

So I've held onto my vcr for the last decade, pretty much exclusively so that I could watch my crappy tape of Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS on drunk lonely nights. On a whim, I discovered that the game is archived and available on iTunes for $1.99. The quality's not much better than vhs, but at least I can toss my player finally.

A couple questions: does anyone know where I can find archives of the rest of the ALDS plus of the one-game playoff vs. the Angels? Also, does anyone know where I can find audio of Neihaus' call of the final game? If anyone has the audio of Neihaus' play by play, I'd be willing to edit the audio and video together as a sort of bootleg present to LLers.

And succeed beyond their wildest dreams.

via www.fangraphs.com

We're currently tied with KC for the third worst record in the league. Yes, I realize it's way early, but it's nice to have something to get excited about. So, let's just say for the sake of argument that we end the season with a 6-8 pick. Who do you take? What about 3-5?

I'm going with Taylor Mays at 6-8 and either Michael Oher or Eugene Monroe at 3-5.

Wishcasting for 2009 is all I've got at this point.

The end of an era is nigh. 

words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words 

Been getting a "server not found" error all day. Anyone care to illuminate?

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Seattle city attorneys have found the smoking gun re: the Sonics owners and their supposed "good faith effort."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004339103_sonicsheds.html

In emails dating back to April of last year:

"Is there any way to move here [Oklahoma City] for next season or are we doomed to have another lame duck season in Seattle?" Ward wrote.

Bennett replied: "I am a man possessed! Will do everything we can. Thanks for hanging with me boys, the game is getting started!"

Ward: "That's the spirit!! I am willing to help any way I can to watch ball here [in Oklahoma City] next year.

Look, I know a lot of you could care less about bouncy-ball and the fact that our 19-year-old phenom just posted a better shooting percentage last month than either LeBron, Kobe, or Brandon Roy did in any month this season. This isn't about that. This about being outraged at sports owners transparently swindling cities – our city – and the fans being powerless to stop it. What a fucking joke.

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/01/bill-james-answers-all-your-baseball-questions/

A long Q and A with Bill James on the NYT Freakonomics blog. Good reading.

My favorite quote:

The people who analyze politics on television say absolutely ridiculous things with a frequency that would make the laziest baseball announcer look like Socrates by comparison.

Noted without comment.

A 24-year-old South Kitsap man -- and self-proclaimed Seattle Seahawks fan -- was arrested Sunday for allegedly spitting on the hamburger he prepared for a man wearing Pittsburgh Steelers attire, according to Kitsap County Sheriff's Office reports.

http://www.komotv.com/news/17090031.html

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/rules-and-quirks/                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3017356

Assistant GM Bill Smith to take his place.
Kinda stunning. I wonder if this is the end of an era or whether the new Twins organization will be more or less indistinguishable from the one of the last decade.

This graph visualizes the most and least efficient spending in the MLB using a handy graph.

http://benfry.com/salaryper/

Take some solace in Chicago. Yikes!

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Can anyone recommend some good Seahawks blogs? Intelligent/insightful author(s) are important.

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Anyone else have a visceral reaction to the word? Forget for a moment the cheap and bewildering attempt at a tie-in to recent local countercultural history; just the sound of the phrase drives me up the wall. Aurally, it's one of the clunkiest, crappiest phrases you could come up with. It doesn't help that the phrase it's bastardizing is the exact opposite: lilting, rhythmic, rolls right of the tongue.

It pains me that the organization is going to shove this phrase down our throats and the 2007 season will be remembered as the Lolla-Blue-Za year.

We can come up with something better. Suggestions?

I know a lot of you don't care much for bouncy-ball, but this particular story should infuriate anyone that cares anything for the Seattle sports scene.

Just saw this on sonicscentral.com:

http://www.journalrecord.com/article.cfm?recid=80883

McClendon said the team would probably make more money if it stayed in Seattle.

"But we didn't buy the team to keep it in Seattle; we hoped to come here," he said. "We know it's a little more difficult financially here in Oklahoma City, but we think it's great for the community and if we could break even we'd be thrilled."

[FYI McClendon is one of the billionaires in the current Sonics ownership group]

This is a pretty huge slip-up because Bennett has been doing his best to make it seem like he's following through on his "good faith" pledge. It'll be interesting to watch the fallout on this...

Can someone please inform me why he isn't receiving higher consideration as a Ho replacement? He's held down a 2.77 ERA since being called up to Tacoma from AA, aided by back to back complete game shutouts in his last two starts. Dudes got a 2.26 K:BB and a 2.44BB/9 in AAA. Career stats are in line with what the numbers he's been putting up recently. He's only 23 (turns 24 in Dec). He's an extreme flyball pitcher, but I have to think he'd be better than HoBag.

Why aren't more people on this bandwagon? What am I missing here?

Is this Mclaren's plan for getting Jones and Ibañez ABs and time in the field?

From the Seattle Times notebook:

"Mariners second baseman Jose Lopez, who entered the game Friday hitting just 4 for 26 (.154) on the current homestand, will be losing playing time to Jose Vidro in coming weeks.

The team is concerned about how Lopez faded in the second half last year as well and plans to give Vidro some starts at second base on days when Ichiro acts as the designated hitter. "

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2003821199_marinotes04.html

I'm kinda excited about this. Getting the black hole that is Jose Lopez out of the lineup may be worth the obvious trade off in defense (hopefully no one hits any grounders when Vidro starts). And, while Ichiro may get one or two "days off" at DH, my guess is Ibañez gets the vast majority. It would be completely retarded to give Ichiro more DH stints than Ibañez.

I actually haven't completely given up on Ibañez yet. I don't think he'll do great, but I think there's a chance he starts hitting a bit and being adequate.

Mapping the regional fanbase of each team. Not a lot of info about this. I would guess this isn't based off any factual information, but I don't see any glaring errors; seems like this could be pretty accurate.

More info here:
http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2007/08/03/160-the-united-countries-of-baseball/

Check out Geoff Baker's blog. Listen to the audio clips. I am very excited.

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one and five is five
one and six is six
one and seven is seven
one and eight is eight...

From the Times:

McLaren said before the game that he was "absolutely" going to stick with Ibanez and Richie Sexson down the stretch, despite their significant slumps at the plate.

"When you're a professional and you're not having a great year and you're still going out there and giving it your all, and not hanging your head and battling, that means something to your teammates, and that's important to me," McLaren said.