Hello CSRs,

It feels like a month has passed since Carolina held on to beat New Orleans and clinch the NFC South division title, not just 13 days ago on the final day of the regular season. We are glad that Carolina had something to play for in that game as recent history shows that resting your players in week 17, especially if you have a bye in the first round of the playoffs, can actually hurt your chances of earning a win in the Divisional Playoffs. As we all know Carolina's opponent, Arizona, has already traveled to visit once this year, and led 17-3 in the third quarter before Carolina staged a furious comeback to win 27-23. Let's get to it.

See his predictions after the jump...

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Hello CSRs,

We believe most you know that back in week 4 we picked Carolina as the most likely team to win the Super Bowl. At the halfway point in the season (week 10) we revisited which teams we thought were most likely to play in the big game, and while things in the NFC had shifted around considerably, our pick had not. In the NFC the debate was between Carolina and New York, and this is how we viewed the upcoming regular season matchup would affect the playoffs. "...Interestingly enough, New York hosts Carolina in week 16, which regardless of the outcome will help the Panthers. If Carolina loses the game and the #1 seed, they will at least have the experience of playing in New York once that year. The same cannot be said for New York if Carolina wins the regular season matchup." We feel this game is a win-win situation for Carolina, which was also how we felt about New York last year when they hosted New England in week 17 of the regular season.

CAR @ NYG

Our line: Carolina by 11

Read his explanation after the jump...

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Hello CSRs,

Chris Gamble. Jake Delhomme. Jonathan Stewart. Julius Peppers. Even Steve Smith. These are not the typical names of playmakers that circulate in popular conversations around the base of NFL fans and media. Many people outside of forums like these would have a hard time naming more than 2 players on the team. But despite the lack of notoriety what has become certain is that this team is full of playmakers that excel when the game is on the line, something coaches yearn for and can quickly separate good team's from being 10-3 and being 7-6.

DEN @ CAR

Our line: Carolina by 6

After Carolina ran all over the sturdy run defense of Tampa Bay, right away one has to wonder how Denver's limp run defense is going to have any shot at containing Williams and Stewart. They're not, but that isn't going to have a grand effect on their ability to stay with Carolina on the road. In five of their eight wins Denver has surrendered over 130 yards rushing or over 350 yards passing, showing that simply gaining mass amounts of yards and putting points on the board does not ensure victory against the AFC West division leaders. What has been a quick and brutal death blow to the Broncos however has been creating turnovers, especially early in the game. Denver has yet to lose a game where they surrender less than two turnovers, but have lost every time they give up more than two, which has happened four times already this season (they are 1-1 when giving up exactly 2 turnovers). Carolina has employed a solid bend but don't break defense all year long, and while they have created a decent amount of turnovers, they have not been extraordinary at it, which is why we see this game staying fairly close most of the way. Look for a pretty high scoring affair this Sunday, with a game that could stretch beyond 65 total points. We think the end difference in this match will once again be the uncanny knack that any of the 11 Carolina players on the field have of stepping up when the pressure is on to force a turnover, make a catch, sack, tackle, or whatever is necessary to seal a win for their team.

ITN Rankings:

- Carolina #7

- Denver #13

Hello CSRs,

If you are a fan of any team that plays in the NFC South, this has probably been one of the most exciting years of football to watch in a long time. Every game between division opponents has had grand implications for the division title and playoff picture. And as big as many of the games have been up to this point the upcoming second meeting between Carolina and Tampa Bay casts a large shadow over the games that have preceded it.
However, the thing is that many of the games have been lopsided in favor of the home team, and many of you have heard the stat that in NFC South divisional games the home team is a perfect 8-0 with an average margin of victory of over two touchdowns. Outside of the two New Orleans/Tampa Bay match-ups no game has been decided by fewer than 10 points. So the question is will the trend continue? Absolutely not. If you think the standings are already crazy close, this weekend's results will set the stage for there being a three way tie at 10-4 for the division lead after the completion of week 15.

TB @ CAR

Our line: Tampa Bay by 7

Word on the street is that this Monday night game will be Carolina's coming out party. Underrated and forgotten by much of the media throughout the year, Carolina is undefeated at home and looking to revenge their 24 point loss in their trip to Tampa, and do it in their first really big nationalized TV game of the year. Our ranking system has been a Panthers fan all year long and even has had them as the most likely NFC team to reach the Super Bowl. In recent weeks both of our rankings Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points (strength of schedule) have started to lean away from the Panthers and towards the Buccaneers as the best team in the South. The biggest surprise has been that 9-3 Carolina still remains as an Upset Candidate and their recent play has opened themselves up to being defeated at home by opponents like Tampa Bay, who certainly has the means to pull off the win. While we are expecting a high scoring game, we do believe that the Tampa Bay defense will be the difference maker in this game. Look for Gruden to have his defense take away the big play from the Carolina offense and rely on his defense to use sound tackling and turnovers to limit Carolina from moving the ball on the ground or with short passes underneath. Expect there to be a couple of dry spells in the game for the Carolina offense where they have back to back 3 and out sequences that will put more pressure on the defense they are likely to be able to handle, giving the Tampa Bay offense the little bit of advantage it needs to find the end zone and emerge with a huge win and a temporary division lead in the NFC South.

ITN rankings:

- Tampa Bay # 5

- Carolina #8

Hello CSRs,

We know people on this forum don't want to hear it, but Tampa Bay is going to defeat New Orleans this Sunday, which forces Carolina into a must win situation if they want to control their own destiny in the battle for the NFC South division title. It really is time for Carolina to step it up and start playing the high quality football we became accustomed to before they had their bye week.

CAR @ GB

Our line: Carolina by 4

Although Carolina has slid down the rankings a significant amount over the last few weeks, there is still no doubt as to who is the better team here. Win Grade (team fundamentals) especially favors Carolina, and highlights the difference in the two teams' run defense as the key factor to this game. While the Panthers run defense has been nothing to write home about as of late, they still have shown a knack for shutting down star RB's over the course of the season, and should have little trouble putting the brakes on GB running back R. Grant. On the other hand, the host teams run defense is borderline atrocious, and outside of what appears to be a fluke performance at home against Chicago, has shown no signs of being able to hold good rushing teams in check. This is great news for running back tandem Williams and Stewart, who have combined for over 100 yards rushing in 5 straight games. It is no secret that the Green Bay secondary is one of the best in the league, and in order to move the ball through the air effectively Carolina is going to have to rely on their two RB's to break some big runs early, forcing Green Bay to pull extra help into the box and open things up some for the aerial attack. Whichever team is able to maintain a two dimension offensive attack will have a serious advantage in this game, and we feel Carolina has the run defense and run attack needed to walk away with a victory and a continued share of the lead in the NFC South.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #10

- Green Bay #20

Hello CSRs,

It seems that the lack of media attention is finally getting to Panthers fans, which is quite understandable. The media has been brushing Carolina under the table since week 1, and continue to do so. As infuriating as this may be, we believe it is to the teams advantage. There is plenty of time to still garner some respect, especially with the tough remaining schedule Carolina faces.

CAR @ ATL

Our line: Atlanta by 4

While both Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points (strength of schedule) find Carolina to be the better team, the two rankings do not find the upcoming matchup at Atlanta to be a favorable for the Panthers. Carolina will need it's A game in Atlanta, but so far this season Carolina has struggled to play well on both sides of the ball when their team travels outside of Bank of America Stadium. We see potential for Carolina's surging run attack to have another big day on the ground against the 22nd ranked run defense of the host team, but the passing game is another matter. Back to back less than 100 yard passing showings by the aerial attack does not bode well for the Carolina offense. When this is combined with their 14 points per game and 2.5 turnovers per game average on the road we have trouble figuring out how Carolina will be able to outscore Turner and Ryan. Expect both teams to struggle to find the end zone early on in this game, but for Carolina's greater struggle on offense to slowly allow Atlanta to win the battle for field position, providing several good opportunities for Atlanta's offense to put touchdowns on the board and take control of the game.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #7 - Two not so impressive wins in a row have allowed a few teams to slip in front of Carolina in the rankings. Detroit gave this team all they could handle, which surprised us and it looked like it surprised the Carolina players as well. More disturbing than anything are back to back games where the offense has had less than 100 yards passing, which to us overshadows the big games by the RB's. Carolina certainly has the players to have a solid balanced offense, but with the toughest remaining schedule of all the teams in the NFC South, they need it to come out of hiding fast.
Stat: the defense has allowed opponents to complete only 4 of their 14 (29%) fourth down attempts (3rd).

- Atlanta #15 - Unfortunately, the loss at home to Denver puts a serious damper on Atlanta's chance to contend for the NFC South division title, and on their chances of making it to the playoffs. There aren't any glaring deficiencies on this team, but they lack experience in tight games on and on the road. There is still plenty of opportunity to get back into contention, but the question is will the youth on the team be able to step up and make big plays when they need it?
Stat: the offense is scoring TD's on only 44% of its trips to the red zone (28th)

Hello CSRs,

Anytime you win on the road it is a good thing. The fact that Carolina won despite losing the turnover battle is also a good sign, even if it was against lowly Oakland. Remember the much hyped Jets last loss was at Oakland where they also lost the turnover battle.

DET @ CAR

Our line: Carolina by 18

As if the records of each team in this match up weren't enough of an indication as to how likely it would be for Detroit to pull off a road win, looking into our rankings certainly slams the door shut on Detroit being able to earn its first win of the season. The visiting team is ranked 32nd by both Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points (strength of schedule). Now normally it is common for the 32nd ranked team in the league to appear underrated, or to be underplaying their abilities (i.e. leaving a lot of points on the field), as there is nowhere to go but up. Detroit though has almost no hint of either, entrenching them in the gutter of the rankings, and really describes how poorly this team has played over the course of the season. This is not to say that Detroit will not bring everything to the table, it is more of a testament as to how bad of a spot this for them. Carolina comes off of a hard fought victory at Oakland, which makes it hard to believe Carolina will be caught looking past this game. Hampering Detroit even more is that it will have been exactly 3 weeks since Carolina last played in front of their home crowd. The fans would be chomping at the bit to cheer for their division leading team even if they were playing a Division 1-AA college team. The only hope for Detroit to keep this game close is a barrage of turnovers by Carolina, which is highly unlikely with the offense coming off of its worst turnover performance of the year. Look for the home defense to deliver a rude and punishing greeting to the visiting team, handing Delhomme and company excellent field position to build a large early lead upon, from where they will have little problems cruising to a victory.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #5 - That wasn't the most inspiring road trip to Oakland, but it was a win nonetheless. Still, the Panthers have lost the turnover battle in 3 of their 4 road trips, and the only one they didn't lose was a tie. With upcoming road trips to ATL, GB, NYG, and NO, Carolina will need to turn that around. Stat: the defense is allowing opponents TD's on only 38% of their trips to the red zone (3rd).

- Detroit #32 - Let's try to look at things with a more positive light. Detroit is now 7-1 at playing so poorly that the opponent who beats them loses their next game. The only team able to avoid that fate was Houston when they got to host Cincinnati the week after pummeling the Lions. Stat: the offense has converted 69% (11 of 16) of their red zone trips into TDs (3rd).

Hello CSR's,

With the bye week completed Carolina enters the second half of the season with some pretty high expectations. Often overlooked in the NFL are games like this one, where a division leader travels to play a poor, out of conference opponent. We frequently hear experts and fans say, "...it won't be the end of the world if they lose this one, because it's not against a division opponent." Or, "...they had a two game division lead, so they can afford... blah blah blah." Taking care of games like this one against Oakland (and next week against Detroit) are a must for teams with expectations for January and beyond.

CAR @ OAK

Our line: Carolina by 12

Carolina enters this game as our mid-season favorite to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC (they were our first quarter favorite too) and are coming off a bye. They are firmly planted in the top five of both Real Points (strength of schedule) and Win Grade (team fundamentals), while Oakland is rooted in the bottom ten of both and continues to waste more of their potential than any other team in the league. All of this would normally point to a solid 3 score or more blow-out, but there is something in Oakland's favor here; they got abused by Atlanta last week and were shutout in front of their home crowd, who let them have it. We expect Oakland to come into this game looking to redeem themselves, and ready to play with the respected Panthers. Expect RB's Fargas and Bush to have a solid if not gaudy performance against the Carolina defense, which should help QB Russell have a bad day rather than a completely dismal one. Look for a tight game through halftime, but for Carolina's superior play and talent to pull away in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #5 - Coming off their bye week the Carolina Injury report is free of names, which will help them take care of the two must win games in front of them. In order to win division titles and get bye's in the playoffs, teams cannot allow 'easy' wins to escape their grasps. Offense #20 | Defense #8 | Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 50%

- Oakland #27 - Was that really the same Oakland team that knocked off the NY Jets in overtime on the field against Atlanta? The run defense is playing very shoddy and is starting to adversely affect the secondary. Even more troublesome than that is the passing offense, which has struggled all year and shows no signs of improving. Offense #30 | Defense #26 | Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0%

Hello NN,

Certainly an interesting week. We saw the post regarding the over/under on how many wins the Niners would get in '08 under Singletary. We're on board with everyone who had faith enough to take the over. Had to laugh at the guy who said they would push with 2.5 wins. Maybe he thinks a victory over Seattle is only worth half of a normal win...

SEA @ SF

Our line: San Francisco by 2

The common thought out there is that San Francisco will be "lost and bewildered" after changing head coaches only six days before a game. Our question is, wasn't the team already completely dazed and confused while Nolan was coach? The change can't make things much worse than they already were, and might even help the team regain some lost focus. Our rankings aren't in love with San Francisco by any means, but they are fairly confident that San Francisco is the better team at home. Seattle has had a horrible start to the season, and hasn't shown any signs of turning that around. Look for a pretty slow placed game offensively for both teams, and for San Francisco to finally stop the bleeding with turnovers using a run 'early and often' mentality, helping solidify a much needed win at home.

ITN rankings:

- San Francisco #28 - We can't blame the 49er organization for firing Nolan, the team has too much talent and potential to be squandered.

- Seattle #30 - If Hasselback can't play this week against San Francisco, it might be a long time before this team has another shot at a victory.

Hello BTSC,

And so starts the 4 game stretch of death. Well, looking farther ahead in the schedule it is really a 9 game stretch with a mini break in week 12 against Cincy. Fortunately 3 of the next 4 are at home, and that is something Pitt will need to take advantage of.

NYG @ PIT

Our line: Pittsburgh by 11

On paper, New York's standard stats make them look like the favorite here. Jacobs and Ward have been excellent on the ground, and for the most part Manning has been consistent. Their run, pass, and scoring defense are all highly ranked. So what gives? Real Points (strength of schedule) throws New York's schedule in our face and points out that plenty of teams would have as good of numbers against the same teams. Most worrisome of New York's stats is that they have created only 5 turnovers on defense, 3 of which came last week against San Francisco, a team that has turned the ball over against everyone. The Steelers have the defense to shut down New York, putting a big emphasis on New York needing some short field situations in order to put points on the board. Look for Pittsburgh to lean on the run game early on in hopes to limit the pressure New York will be trying to put on Roethlisberger, and for Pittsburgh to return the favor and force Manning into a several uncomfortable spots that result in a few turnovers of their own, sealing a monster win at home.

ITN rankings:

- Pittsburgh #5 - There are quite a few questions for the Steelers going into their next game. Will Parker play? Can Moore be effective against a real defense? Can the injured line protect Roethlisberger? One thing we do know for sure, Heinz field will be rocking when the defending Super Bowl champs come to visit Sunday afternoon.

- NY Giants #8 - The trip through lollypop land has officially ended. Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: .600. Next scheduled game against an opponent who is currently under .500: week 17. Oh, and yes, that week 17 game is on the road.