Hello CSRs,

It feels like a month has passed since Carolina held on to beat New Orleans and clinch the NFC South division title, not just 13 days ago on the final day of the regular season. We are glad that Carolina had something to play for in that game as recent history shows that resting your players in week 17, especially if you have a bye in the first round of the playoffs, can actually hurt your chances of earning a win in the Divisional Playoffs. As we all know Carolina's opponent, Arizona, has already traveled to visit once this year, and led 17-3 in the third quarter before Carolina staged a furious comeback to win 27-23. Let's get to it.

See his predictions after the jump...

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Hello CSRs,

We believe most you know that back in week 4 we picked Carolina as the most likely team to win the Super Bowl. At the halfway point in the season (week 10) we revisited which teams we thought were most likely to play in the big game, and while things in the NFC had shifted around considerably, our pick had not. In the NFC the debate was between Carolina and New York, and this is how we viewed the upcoming regular season matchup would affect the playoffs. "...Interestingly enough, New York hosts Carolina in week 16, which regardless of the outcome will help the Panthers. If Carolina loses the game and the #1 seed, they will at least have the experience of playing in New York once that year. The same cannot be said for New York if Carolina wins the regular season matchup." We feel this game is a win-win situation for Carolina, which was also how we felt about New York last year when they hosted New England in week 17 of the regular season.

CAR @ NYG

Our line: Carolina by 11

Read his explanation after the jump...

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Hello CSRs,

Chris Gamble. Jake Delhomme. Jonathan Stewart. Julius Peppers. Even Steve Smith. These are not the typical names of playmakers that circulate in popular conversations around the base of NFL fans and media. Many people outside of forums like these would have a hard time naming more than 2 players on the team. But despite the lack of notoriety what has become certain is that this team is full of playmakers that excel when the game is on the line, something coaches yearn for and can quickly separate good team's from being 10-3 and being 7-6.

DEN @ CAR

Our line: Carolina by 6

After Carolina ran all over the sturdy run defense of Tampa Bay, right away one has to wonder how Denver's limp run defense is going to have any shot at containing Williams and Stewart. They're not, but that isn't going to have a grand effect on their ability to stay with Carolina on the road. In five of their eight wins Denver has surrendered over 130 yards rushing or over 350 yards passing, showing that simply gaining mass amounts of yards and putting points on the board does not ensure victory against the AFC West division leaders. What has been a quick and brutal death blow to the Broncos however has been creating turnovers, especially early in the game. Denver has yet to lose a game where they surrender less than two turnovers, but have lost every time they give up more than two, which has happened four times already this season (they are 1-1 when giving up exactly 2 turnovers). Carolina has employed a solid bend but don't break defense all year long, and while they have created a decent amount of turnovers, they have not been extraordinary at it, which is why we see this game staying fairly close most of the way. Look for a pretty high scoring affair this Sunday, with a game that could stretch beyond 65 total points. We think the end difference in this match will once again be the uncanny knack that any of the 11 Carolina players on the field have of stepping up when the pressure is on to force a turnover, make a catch, sack, tackle, or whatever is necessary to seal a win for their team.

ITN Rankings:

- Carolina #7

- Denver #13

Hello CSRs,

If you are a fan of any team that plays in the NFC South, this has probably been one of the most exciting years of football to watch in a long time. Every game between division opponents has had grand implications for the division title and playoff picture. And as big as many of the games have been up to this point the upcoming second meeting between Carolina and Tampa Bay casts a large shadow over the games that have preceded it.
However, the thing is that many of the games have been lopsided in favor of the home team, and many of you have heard the stat that in NFC South divisional games the home team is a perfect 8-0 with an average margin of victory of over two touchdowns. Outside of the two New Orleans/Tampa Bay match-ups no game has been decided by fewer than 10 points. So the question is will the trend continue? Absolutely not. If you think the standings are already crazy close, this weekend's results will set the stage for there being a three way tie at 10-4 for the division lead after the completion of week 15.

TB @ CAR

Our line: Tampa Bay by 7

Word on the street is that this Monday night game will be Carolina's coming out party. Underrated and forgotten by much of the media throughout the year, Carolina is undefeated at home and looking to revenge their 24 point loss in their trip to Tampa, and do it in their first really big nationalized TV game of the year. Our ranking system has been a Panthers fan all year long and even has had them as the most likely NFC team to reach the Super Bowl. In recent weeks both of our rankings Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points (strength of schedule) have started to lean away from the Panthers and towards the Buccaneers as the best team in the South. The biggest surprise has been that 9-3 Carolina still remains as an Upset Candidate and their recent play has opened themselves up to being defeated at home by opponents like Tampa Bay, who certainly has the means to pull off the win. While we are expecting a high scoring game, we do believe that the Tampa Bay defense will be the difference maker in this game. Look for Gruden to have his defense take away the big play from the Carolina offense and rely on his defense to use sound tackling and turnovers to limit Carolina from moving the ball on the ground or with short passes underneath. Expect there to be a couple of dry spells in the game for the Carolina offense where they have back to back 3 and out sequences that will put more pressure on the defense they are likely to be able to handle, giving the Tampa Bay offense the little bit of advantage it needs to find the end zone and emerge with a huge win and a temporary division lead in the NFC South.

ITN rankings:

- Tampa Bay # 5

- Carolina #8

Hello CSRs,

We know people on this forum don't want to hear it, but Tampa Bay is going to defeat New Orleans this Sunday, which forces Carolina into a must win situation if they want to control their own destiny in the battle for the NFC South division title. It really is time for Carolina to step it up and start playing the high quality football we became accustomed to before they had their bye week.

CAR @ GB

Our line: Carolina by 4

Although Carolina has slid down the rankings a significant amount over the last few weeks, there is still no doubt as to who is the better team here. Win Grade (team fundamentals) especially favors Carolina, and highlights the difference in the two teams' run defense as the key factor to this game. While the Panthers run defense has been nothing to write home about as of late, they still have shown a knack for shutting down star RB's over the course of the season, and should have little trouble putting the brakes on GB running back R. Grant. On the other hand, the host teams run defense is borderline atrocious, and outside of what appears to be a fluke performance at home against Chicago, has shown no signs of being able to hold good rushing teams in check. This is great news for running back tandem Williams and Stewart, who have combined for over 100 yards rushing in 5 straight games. It is no secret that the Green Bay secondary is one of the best in the league, and in order to move the ball through the air effectively Carolina is going to have to rely on their two RB's to break some big runs early, forcing Green Bay to pull extra help into the box and open things up some for the aerial attack. Whichever team is able to maintain a two dimension offensive attack will have a serious advantage in this game, and we feel Carolina has the run defense and run attack needed to walk away with a victory and a continued share of the lead in the NFC South.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #10

- Green Bay #20

Hello CSRs,

It seems that the lack of media attention is finally getting to Panthers fans, which is quite understandable. The media has been brushing Carolina under the table since week 1, and continue to do so. As infuriating as this may be, we believe it is to the teams advantage. There is plenty of time to still garner some respect, especially with the tough remaining schedule Carolina faces.

CAR @ ATL

Our line: Atlanta by 4

While both Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points (strength of schedule) find Carolina to be the better team, the two rankings do not find the upcoming matchup at Atlanta to be a favorable for the Panthers. Carolina will need it's A game in Atlanta, but so far this season Carolina has struggled to play well on both sides of the ball when their team travels outside of Bank of America Stadium. We see potential for Carolina's surging run attack to have another big day on the ground against the 22nd ranked run defense of the host team, but the passing game is another matter. Back to back less than 100 yard passing showings by the aerial attack does not bode well for the Carolina offense. When this is combined with their 14 points per game and 2.5 turnovers per game average on the road we have trouble figuring out how Carolina will be able to outscore Turner and Ryan. Expect both teams to struggle to find the end zone early on in this game, but for Carolina's greater struggle on offense to slowly allow Atlanta to win the battle for field position, providing several good opportunities for Atlanta's offense to put touchdowns on the board and take control of the game.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #7 - Two not so impressive wins in a row have allowed a few teams to slip in front of Carolina in the rankings. Detroit gave this team all they could handle, which surprised us and it looked like it surprised the Carolina players as well. More disturbing than anything are back to back games where the offense has had less than 100 yards passing, which to us overshadows the big games by the RB's. Carolina certainly has the players to have a solid balanced offense, but with the toughest remaining schedule of all the teams in the NFC South, they need it to come out of hiding fast.
Stat: the defense has allowed opponents to complete only 4 of their 14 (29%) fourth down attempts (3rd).

- Atlanta #15 - Unfortunately, the loss at home to Denver puts a serious damper on Atlanta's chance to contend for the NFC South division title, and on their chances of making it to the playoffs. There aren't any glaring deficiencies on this team, but they lack experience in tight games on and on the road. There is still plenty of opportunity to get back into contention, but the question is will the youth on the team be able to step up and make big plays when they need it?
Stat: the offense is scoring TD's on only 44% of its trips to the red zone (28th)

Hello CSRs,

Anytime you win on the road it is a good thing. The fact that Carolina won despite losing the turnover battle is also a good sign, even if it was against lowly Oakland. Remember the much hyped Jets last loss was at Oakland where they also lost the turnover battle.

DET @ CAR

Our line: Carolina by 18

As if the records of each team in this match up weren't enough of an indication as to how likely it would be for Detroit to pull off a road win, looking into our rankings certainly slams the door shut on Detroit being able to earn its first win of the season. The visiting team is ranked 32nd by both Win Grade (team fundamentals) and Real Points (strength of schedule). Now normally it is common for the 32nd ranked team in the league to appear underrated, or to be underplaying their abilities (i.e. leaving a lot of points on the field), as there is nowhere to go but up. Detroit though has almost no hint of either, entrenching them in the gutter of the rankings, and really describes how poorly this team has played over the course of the season. This is not to say that Detroit will not bring everything to the table, it is more of a testament as to how bad of a spot this for them. Carolina comes off of a hard fought victory at Oakland, which makes it hard to believe Carolina will be caught looking past this game. Hampering Detroit even more is that it will have been exactly 3 weeks since Carolina last played in front of their home crowd. The fans would be chomping at the bit to cheer for their division leading team even if they were playing a Division 1-AA college team. The only hope for Detroit to keep this game close is a barrage of turnovers by Carolina, which is highly unlikely with the offense coming off of its worst turnover performance of the year. Look for the home defense to deliver a rude and punishing greeting to the visiting team, handing Delhomme and company excellent field position to build a large early lead upon, from where they will have little problems cruising to a victory.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #5 - That wasn't the most inspiring road trip to Oakland, but it was a win nonetheless. Still, the Panthers have lost the turnover battle in 3 of their 4 road trips, and the only one they didn't lose was a tie. With upcoming road trips to ATL, GB, NYG, and NO, Carolina will need to turn that around. Stat: the defense is allowing opponents TD's on only 38% of their trips to the red zone (3rd).

- Detroit #32 - Let's try to look at things with a more positive light. Detroit is now 7-1 at playing so poorly that the opponent who beats them loses their next game. The only team able to avoid that fate was Houston when they got to host Cincinnati the week after pummeling the Lions. Stat: the offense has converted 69% (11 of 16) of their red zone trips into TDs (3rd).

Hello CSR's,

With the bye week completed Carolina enters the second half of the season with some pretty high expectations. Often overlooked in the NFL are games like this one, where a division leader travels to play a poor, out of conference opponent. We frequently hear experts and fans say, "...it won't be the end of the world if they lose this one, because it's not against a division opponent." Or, "...they had a two game division lead, so they can afford... blah blah blah." Taking care of games like this one against Oakland (and next week against Detroit) are a must for teams with expectations for January and beyond.

CAR @ OAK

Our line: Carolina by 12

Carolina enters this game as our mid-season favorite to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC (they were our first quarter favorite too) and are coming off a bye. They are firmly planted in the top five of both Real Points (strength of schedule) and Win Grade (team fundamentals), while Oakland is rooted in the bottom ten of both and continues to waste more of their potential than any other team in the league. All of this would normally point to a solid 3 score or more blow-out, but there is something in Oakland's favor here; they got abused by Atlanta last week and were shutout in front of their home crowd, who let them have it. We expect Oakland to come into this game looking to redeem themselves, and ready to play with the respected Panthers. Expect RB's Fargas and Bush to have a solid if not gaudy performance against the Carolina defense, which should help QB Russell have a bad day rather than a completely dismal one. Look for a tight game through halftime, but for Carolina's superior play and talent to pull away in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #5 - Coming off their bye week the Carolina Injury report is free of names, which will help them take care of the two must win games in front of them. In order to win division titles and get bye's in the playoffs, teams cannot allow 'easy' wins to escape their grasps. Offense #20 | Defense #8 | Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 50%

- Oakland #27 - Was that really the same Oakland team that knocked off the NY Jets in overtime on the field against Atlanta? The run defense is playing very shoddy and is starting to adversely affect the secondary. Even more troublesome than that is the passing offense, which has struggled all year and shows no signs of improving. Offense #30 | Defense #26 | Turnovers +1 | Chance of going to Super Bowl: 0%

Hello NN,

Certainly an interesting week. We saw the post regarding the over/under on how many wins the Niners would get in '08 under Singletary. We're on board with everyone who had faith enough to take the over. Had to laugh at the guy who said they would push with 2.5 wins. Maybe he thinks a victory over Seattle is only worth half of a normal win...

SEA @ SF

Our line: San Francisco by 2

The common thought out there is that San Francisco will be "lost and bewildered" after changing head coaches only six days before a game. Our question is, wasn't the team already completely dazed and confused while Nolan was coach? The change can't make things much worse than they already were, and might even help the team regain some lost focus. Our rankings aren't in love with San Francisco by any means, but they are fairly confident that San Francisco is the better team at home. Seattle has had a horrible start to the season, and hasn't shown any signs of turning that around. Look for a pretty slow placed game offensively for both teams, and for San Francisco to finally stop the bleeding with turnovers using a run 'early and often' mentality, helping solidify a much needed win at home.

ITN rankings:

- San Francisco #28 - We can't blame the 49er organization for firing Nolan, the team has too much talent and potential to be squandered.

- Seattle #30 - If Hasselback can't play this week against San Francisco, it might be a long time before this team has another shot at a victory.

Hello BTSC,

And so starts the 4 game stretch of death. Well, looking farther ahead in the schedule it is really a 9 game stretch with a mini break in week 12 against Cincy. Fortunately 3 of the next 4 are at home, and that is something Pitt will need to take advantage of.

NYG @ PIT

Our line: Pittsburgh by 11

On paper, New York's standard stats make them look like the favorite here. Jacobs and Ward have been excellent on the ground, and for the most part Manning has been consistent. Their run, pass, and scoring defense are all highly ranked. So what gives? Real Points (strength of schedule) throws New York's schedule in our face and points out that plenty of teams would have as good of numbers against the same teams. Most worrisome of New York's stats is that they have created only 5 turnovers on defense, 3 of which came last week against San Francisco, a team that has turned the ball over against everyone. The Steelers have the defense to shut down New York, putting a big emphasis on New York needing some short field situations in order to put points on the board. Look for Pittsburgh to lean on the run game early on in hopes to limit the pressure New York will be trying to put on Roethlisberger, and for Pittsburgh to return the favor and force Manning into a several uncomfortable spots that result in a few turnovers of their own, sealing a monster win at home.

ITN rankings:

- Pittsburgh #5 - There are quite a few questions for the Steelers going into their next game. Will Parker play? Can Moore be effective against a real defense? Can the injured line protect Roethlisberger? One thing we do know for sure, Heinz field will be rocking when the defending Super Bowl champs come to visit Sunday afternoon.

- NY Giants #8 - The trip through lollypop land has officially ended. Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: .600. Next scheduled game against an opponent who is currently under .500: week 17. Oh, and yes, that week 17 game is on the road.

Hello CSRs,

It's a very big week for teams in the NFC South huh? We have been touting them as a better division than the NFC East since week 2, and they really have a chance to prove it this week. Unfortunately those games are in the East's territory, which does not bode well for Atlanta and Tampa Bay. However, this should be good news to Panther fans, as it means a win against Arizona is likely to leave the Panthers as the lone division leaders.

ARI @ CAR

Our line: Carolina by 12

Last week, Carolina was able to take the flight out of the Saints number one rated passing attack. This week Arizona also arrives with a highly rated aerial attack, but in this game we think the Panthers will have a tougher time stopping their opponent from putting points on the board. Why? Well, while New Orleans thinks they can run the football effectively whenever they want to, Arizona doesn't have any delusions of the sort. Hence the Arizona coaching staff has become much more productive at using the pass to set up the run, and have received pretty good results out of their measly 3.2 yards per carry average. Still, performing better than New Orleans did last week against Carolina isn't saying a whole lot. On the defensive side of the ball we see that Arizona has had trouble covering receivers this year (especially number one WRs), setting the stage for Carolina's passing game to be the one putting the most points on the scoreboard. Delhomme to Smith should be a frequent occurrence, and barring the return of fumble troubles look for Carolina to come away with another solid victory.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #6 - As we expected the Panthers got right back to their winning ways against New Orleans. There isn't much hype around their defense, so let us tell you: this team has a mean D. Only Tennessee has allowed fewer touchdowns, and only Pittsburgh is better at defending the pass.

- Arizona #9 - Who has the no. 1 scoring offense in the NFL? Oh, that's right, it's the Arizona Cardinals. Despite having a -1 turnover margin and gaining less than 90 rush yards per game on offense, this team has been able to put points on the board and win games. If they can fix even one of those two issues they will be a serious threat in the NFC.

Hello Phinsider,

If you read our post on last week's game, you know we certainly thought Miami had the game against Houston in hand, so watching them lose it in the final seconds was a blow to us as well. Still, our system sees quite a bit of strength in Miami, and will continue to do so unless the show that letting games get away from them is once again the norm. Here is our take on this week's matchup:

BAL @ MIA

Our line: Miami by 14

Win Grade (team fundamentals) is sending some pretty heavy warning signals that Miami got a little ahead of itself and is now overrated. Real Points (strength of schedule) doesn't agree with that, yet. Fortunately for Miami they are back at home and playing against a team that finds itself quite lost offensively. Baltimore has had success on the ground, but that is about it, and the failures of the passing game have forced a lot of field goal attempts when the team has needed touchdowns. Miami has shown that they know how to defend the run, which means that the secondary is going to be free to focus on Flacco and should have several opportunities to create turnovers for the Miami offense. Look for Miami to settle down defensively after a wild game last week against Houston, and for Pennington to continue managing the offense well and limiting any turnovers that would keep Baltimore in the game.

ITN rankings:

- Miami #20 - A painful loss that reminded us of a lot of the heartbreakers the team went through last year. They may have dropped a little in the rankings this week, but this team has solid enough fundamentals and should rebound nicely.

- Baltimore # 25 - They have the best defense in the NFL, and the running game has done its part. How much longer will it take for Flacco and the passing game to step it up?

Hello BSC,

Bye weeks can seem pretty long, as it feels like forever since Pitt stepped on the field. We actually think this will be very good timing for a game on the road at Cincinnati. We are guessing the players are feeling rested and eager to get playing some ball, making it hard to believe they could be over looking the Bungals and on to some of the tougher upcoming matchups. Here is how we see this weeks game:

PIT @ CIN

Our line: Pittsburgh by 25

If you have watched Cincinnati try to run the football, you probably understand why Pittsburgh is favored by over 3 touchdowns. They aren't going to have much success running the ball this week, and nor are they going to have much success in the air. Pittsburgh has a solid defense in both areas, and also has done a nice job of winning interceptions. With Palmer still out for Cincy, we'll be impressed if they get to double-digits on the scoreboard. Outside of the offensive ineptness of Cincinnati, the strength of Pittsburgh is a big factor here. Both of our rankings think Pitt belongs near the top 5, which is something difficult to achieve. Look for a healthy Roethlisberger to help the offense take advantage of the great field position the defense creates for them, whether or not Parker is able to start on Sunday.

ITN rankings:

- Pittsburgh #4 - The stage is set for Pittsburgh to show they are the team to beat in the AFC. They have wins over both of their nearest division rivals, and are close to being a healthy team again. After this week's matchup at Cincinnati, Pitt plays a 4 game schedule that would make any team's knees tremble. Embrace it or succumb to it.

- Cincinnati #31 - We're big advocates of having a balanced offense, but watching the Bengals try to run the football makes us think they really should just try to pass on every down.

Hello Stampede Blue,

While we aren't in love with how Indianapolis is playing quite yet, our system is defintely starting to come around on them. As we stated in the title, we think the team is in the beginnings of a good groove, but they have some work to do before we are convinced it is something that will last. Here is how we see this week's game:

IND @ GB

Our line: Indianapolis by 16

Next to St. Louis, Green Bay comes into this game as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL according to our rankings. Win Grade (team fundamentals) really likes what Green Bay brings to the table, but given the schedule they have played Real Points (strength of schedule) feels they should have done better and is cutting them no slack. Indianapolis on the other hand will arrive at Lambeau as one of the hottest teams in the league, and is anything but overrated. Their biggest struggle this year has been stopping the run, and with Green Bay averaging well under 100 yards a game on the ground, the Indy defense should have an good chance to continue the progress they showed stopping Baltimore's ground game last week. With Manning and the offense finally in rhythm look for the passing game to open up some opportunities for backup RB Rhodes to get some big gains and keep Indianapolis in control of the clock and the game.

ITN rankings:

- Indianapolis #19 - We could sense the frustration being released from some Indy fans when we were called 'Idiots' for predicting the Colts to win by only 5. It's been an understandably tough start to the season, and that win meant a lot. Don't get too giddy yet though. The Colts are still being outrushed by almost 100 yards a game and that is a gap that needs to be closed.

- Green Bay #22 - Many fans will think their placement this low in the rankings is pretty harsh, but defeating a dismal Seahawks team doesn't prove much to us, even on the road. The run defense still needs a lot of work.

Hello CSRs,

It was a rough game on the road last week, easily one to forget, for fans at least. Let's get right to it.

NO @ CAR

Our line: Carolina by 20

New Orleans is going to get a small taste of what Carolina went through last week: traveling to play a tough division opponent on the road one week after trouncing a meager team at home. But this game goes a little deeper than that. First, while Win Grade (team fundamentals) shows Carolina as over playing itself a little, Real Points (strength of schedule) is very confident that Carolina belongs in the top five teams in the NFL, which really hurts New Orleans' chances of an upset. Looking at New Orleans' side of things we see that both rankings agree with where New Orleans stands, which unfortunately for them is far below Carolina. Specifically we see the Carolina defense as the dominant factor in this matchup. Despite all the hoopla about New Orleans' offense, they really struggle to run the football effectively, and they aren't going to figure out how to solve their ground game woes against Carolina, who has had some great success at limiting opposing RBs. New Orleans' continued struggles on the ground is going to put a lot of pressure on their passing game to perform, and this is something Carolina will not only be prepared for, but is quite capable of handling. Look for Carolina to frustrate the New Orleans offense while Delhomme gets back on track to lead Carolina to a nice methodical victory over their division opponents.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #8 - The loss at Tampa was no surprise; we hinted in last week's rankings that trouncing a horrible team can actually make it harder to win your next game. So while everyone is drooling over the other teams in the NFC South, we expect the Panthers to get right back to churning out strong victories.

- New Orleans #21 - Now that the home stand against so-so opponents is over, we have to ask again: can New Orleans win football games relying solely on their passing game? We don't think they can, but they may have an answer for that with a healthy McCallister.

Hello Niner Nation,

First off we just have to mention that you guys are by far the most fun to follow on SBnation. Makes it kindof hard for us to stay neutral and not pull for your Niners. Nevertheless, the numbers are the numbers, and here is how we see this week's matchup:

SF @ NYG

Our line: NY Giants by 16

Although there is nothing in our rankings that point to San Francisco being able to pull off a big road upset, there is one thing that has our system a little worried. San Francisco has been able to play with their last two opponents strike for strike, even leading Philadelphia by nine going into the 4th quarter last week, but they have been plagued with some catastrophic turnovers. The reason this concerns us is that NY for whatever reason has been unable to create turnovers on defense, which has the potential of letting San Francisco really hang in this game. NY has created only 2 turnovers to date, which is by far the lowest amount in the league, with teams averaging over 8 takeaways through week six. Most likely we will see San Francisco under use Gore as they have all season, making it easy for NY to handle the few attempts he gets, and as usual putting enormous pressure on O'sullivan to play a near perfect game. This should give NY plenty of chances to add some turnovers to their resume and easily put away San Francisco at home. However if they don't get those turnovers, or if Gore for some reason gets a lot more touches on the ball than anticipated, this game could be a nervously tight one for NY fans.

ITN rankings:

- NY Giants #12 - The Giants tumbled down the rankings this week. Why so much after a loss on the road? The Giants have played the easiest schedule in the NFL so far, and haven't convinced Real Points they are really that good. Also somewhat troubling is that the defense has created only two turnovers to date. No other team has fewer than four.

- San Francisco #26 - This has to be one of the toughest teams to watch for fans. All that potential wasted by costly turnovers, and in our opinion pretty poor play calling. Fans were chanting for Nolan's head well before last week's ugly ending.

Hello Stampede Blue,

We've been bouncing around the SBNation this year, but have avoided posting on here because, well, we haven't always had nice things to say about Indy's play. However, this Sunday's matchup brings a slightly different tune:

BAL @ IND

Our line: Indianapolis by 5

We have been pretty harsh on Indianapolis in most of our reviews so far this year, but as our system was designed for, it doesn't buy into hype and personal opinion, even our own. After a close look at the numbers, we can't really argue with what our system is presenting either. Baltimore will have success running the football as they have all season, and will probably be able to march off several drives over 50 yards. The problem arises when they get near the red zone. Baltimore has had problems converting those drives into points because they have been too one-dimensional on offense. The passing game just has not gotten the job done, and the Indianapolis secondary has been the only bright spot during their dismal defensive start to the season. If you can remember the IND @ MIN game in week 2, field goals were not good enough to outscore the Indy offense, and we don't think they will be good enough to defeat Indianapolis at home. Even if Addai continues to struggle, and it is very likely he will against the Baltimore defense, look for Manning to find some way to put enough points on the board and get his team its first home win of the season.

ITN rankings:

- Indianapolis #20

- Baltimore #23

Hello CSRs,

If you read our previous two posts on here, this prediction might surprise you a little bit. After all we were just talking about how Carolina was ranked #1 and that they were our early season pick to reach the Super Bowl. Well they still are, but that doesn't mean we believe they will win every game from here to January. We hope we do not offend, this is just our honest opinion on this week's matchup.

CAR @ TB

Our line: Tampa Bay by 10

This is our game of the week. Both teams are ranked in the top ten and are quite evenly matched on offense and defense. The difference in this matchup is that the battle will be waged on Tampa Bay's turf. Now playing at home by itself is not enough to call for an upset; a team needs to have a few mismatches in their favor that they can magnify and use to turn the game into a victory for them. We just said that these two teams are evenly matched on offense and defense, so where are these mismatches going to come from? Our system has only one mismatch, but it is one that affects almost every aspect of a team on offense and defense: Strength of schedule. Tampa Bay has played against tougher opponents so far in 2008, especially in the last 2 games. Tampa hosted the 21st ranked Pack two weeks ago before traveling to play at the 6th ranked Broncos last week. Meanwhile Carolina is coming off of consecutive home games against the 16th and 26th ranked teams in the league. It is easier said than done to play a horrible opponent at home and then travel to play a tough opponent on the road. Just ask teams that have beaten Detroit and Kanas City, who are 1-5 in their following game. After a evenly matched and hard hitting start to the game, we think the Tampa Bay passing game will find some success in the second half while the defense plays bend but don't break football to give their team a very big division win.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #3

- Buccaneers #6

Good morning MHR,

While a lot of analysts and experts still believe Jacksonville is the team they were last year, we are having no such thoughts.  Moreover, although we have picked Denver to win some of their games by a pretty wide margin only to see them squeeze out a victory, we aren't backing off the potential our system sees in them.

JAC @ DEN

Our line: Denver by 18

This is matchup that we like for Denver. The team has a pass first mentality and should find themselves with plenty of big play opportunities against Jacksonville, who is currently giving up 7.8 yards per reception. The Jags have struggled covering receivers in general but more so against the number three WR and have really struggled covering RBs coming out of the backfield. If Cutler is willing to spread things around this should make a big day for Stokley, Scheffler, and likely Pittman. On Jacksonville's side our system does show some opportunities for their rush attack to have success against the Denver line, but that line showed some signs of improvement last week and also looks very comfortable playing at home. Jacksonville just makes too many mistakes and presents too many opportunities to Denver's offense for them to have much of a chance at pulling off the road upset.

ITN rankings:

- Denver #7

- Jacksonville #22

Good morning Phinsider,

Apparently playing a winless team is more dangerous than we thought, as most analysts and Vegas have Houston as the favorite this Sunday. Sure, teams that have a goose egg in the win column can play with a desperation that somehow turns games in their favor, but we don't think this matchup with Houston is going down that route.

Houston along with Cincinnati, Detroit, St. Louis, and even though Kansas City has a win, are teams that have been deemed the 'losers of 2008.' Of those teams, Detroit and St. Louis have performed the worst, but to us they are now the most dangerous teams to play. Why? Because they have yet to play a good game, and until they do, we don't really know what they are capable of. This is still the NFL folks, and all the players on Detroit and St. Louis are professionals, and one of these days they are going to play like it. And it is likely whoever their opponent is won't be ready for it.

Houston, Cincinnati and Kansas City on the other hand have had games where they played some solid football for 50 plus minutes, only to see 10 or fewer minutes of dismal play kill their shot at a win. We have seen their good stuff and they still haven't managed a win (KC aside). Not only does this weigh heavily on those teams mentally, but it also works against them in that their opponents will not be taking them too lightly since they have 'almost won' several games.

Lost in all of this though, is the fact that Miami is clearly the better team. On to the game:

MIA @ HOU

Our line: Miami by 20

What will be fresh in most minds is how Houston was able to build a nice big 17 point lead against Indianapolis last week before dramatically losing the game. Two things contributed to Houston's lead: being able to run the ball effectively against the Indy defense, and stopping the Indy rush attack from doing the same. Houston is going to have a very difficult time doing either this week against Miami. The Miami defense allowed Tomlinson and Sproles just 60 yards last week, highlighted by a 4th quarter goal line stand. Offensively Miami has shined since Brown's return, with the team averaging 192 rush yards per game against their last two opponents. We think Miami will be able to move the football quite well and will be more effective around and inside the red zone than they were against San Diego, allowing them to control the clock and earn a win that puts them above .500 for the first time since December 2005.

ITN rankings:

- Miami #9

- Houston #30

Hello Niner Nation,

Like most of you, we were dissapointed with how the Niners played at home last week. We really thought they were up to the task of taking down New England. Also dissapointing was how the offense performed, inspiring this comment about San Francisco in our weekly NFL rankings:

When you have a young quarterback that is struggling with turnovers and a running back that is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, it would seem an easy decision to let the running game do most of the heavy lifting for your team. Apparenlty the San Francisco coaching staff has different ideas.

Maybe that is an overly simplistic outlook on solving the 49ers woes, and we're sure some of you have some thoughts on what the team could be doing better. One we thing we know for sure: San Francisco has been as good at beating San Francisco as has their opponents.

PHI @ SF

Our line: Philadelphia by 1

Consistency is the biggest factor in this matchup. Although they have lost their last two games, Philadelphia has played well and one could argue they should have won at least one of those games. Our rankings see them as a balanced team, and both Real Points and Win Grade agree with where they stand (17th). San Francisco is a different matter. They have also lost two in a row, but have done it by beating themselves with turnovers. San Francisco has 6 turnovers in their last two games, and 12 for the season. This is somewhat unfortunate given how strong their offense is when they aren't handing the football directly to the other team. We are quite confident that the San Francisco offense will be able to move the ball well enough to keep this game close the whole way. However, we see their erratic play haunting them once again and giving the Philadelphia defense the last word.

ITN rankings:

- Philadelphia #17

- San Francisco #24

Hello BTSC,

We're a little new to the SBNation, but wanted to drop our take on this week's game against Jacksonville. A lot of experts and journalists think the injuries will dominate this matchup, but we're not so quick to hop on that bandwagon. How often do backups step into games and perform almost to the level of the starter they replaced? Usually this occurs more frequently amongst well coached teams, and we probably don't have to argue much here that Pittsburgh falls into that category. 

PIT @ JAC

Our line: Pittsburgh by 4

Pittsburgh has a large lead in Win Grade* and a just large enough lead in Real Points* to convince our rankings that they are capable of pulling off a road win in Jacksonville. Outside of being able to shut down the Pittsburgh passing game the host team doesn't have a lot to bring to the table here. Stopping Pittsburgh's aerial attack is a strategy that hasn't had much success either, as they often find other ways to win football games and put points on the board. We think this will be the case again this Sunday, with the Pittsburgh defense scrounging up some much needed turnovers for an offense that still can't quite get on track.

*These are two ranking systems we use to matchup teams

ITN Rankings:

- Pittsburgh #9

- Jacksonville #24

Hello MHR,

Probably like most of you, we didn't see last week's game coming. Goes to show how nothing in the NFL is a sure thing. That being said, we noticed the Bikini thread is back up...

TB @ DEN

Our line: Denver by 7

This is somewhat of a peculiar matchup. One would think Tampa Bay would have plenty of good matchups against Denver to tell our system they can pull off the win on the road. Heck what offense doesn't have a good matchup against the Denver defense right now? Indeed there are plenty of mismatches available to the Bucs, but all of them are of middling strength and are frankly quite unreliable on the road. For all the opportunities Tampa has on offense, it is their defense we are questioning here. In both of their road games their defense has given up over 400 yards and their offense has turned the ball over a total of 5 times. We expect to see plenty of footballs flying through the air on Sunday, and for once we won't mind if Denver over uses its aerial attack. We think this matchup will come down to Griese on the road vs. Cutler at home, and we shouldn't have to tell you who will win that contest.

ITN Ranking:

- Tampa Bay #4

- Denver #8

Hello CSRs,

Yes last week we posted our review of ATL @ CAR where we had Carolina winning by 21, which received some friendly but skeptical responses. Carolina did a solid job against Atlanta winning by 15, and we think this week's matchup is another one leaning heavily in their favor:

KC @ CAR

Our line: Carolina by 23

The best thing that could have happened to Carolina coming into this matchup might have been Kansas City defeating Denver last week. Otherwise it would be very easy to see Carolina overlooking a winless team and onto their big matchup in week 6 against Tampa Bay. Not so much the case now. The typical team stats don't do Carolina justice, so you might just wonder how they are favored by 23 points. Our rankings think this team is for real, and have vaulted them up to the number one overall team. They have taken care of the football and proven they can win at home and on the road. KC winning at home isn't a fluke, but you would be amiss to think they can play like that consistently, let alone on the road. We expect the solid Carolina secondary to have its way with the KC passing game, which will allow the rest of the defense to focus on stopping the rush attack, thus keeping KC off the scoreboard and giving the Panther offense plenty of short field opportunities to work with.

ITN Rankings:

- Carolina #1

- Kansas City #25

Hello Niner Nation,

We're just getting our feet wet here on SBNation, but wanted to give you our take on San Francisco hosting New England this weekend.

NE @ SF

Our Line: San Francisco by 5

In our review of this week's rankings, we talked about how the bye week should have benefited New England by giving them time to figure out how to get their offense jump started. There is no need to jump start the San Francisco offense, which would be firing on all cylinders if not for some costly turnovers, specifically fumbling the football. We remember how Miami ran all over New England two weeks ago, and so does our system. Regardless of whether or not New England's offense improves, we think that playing at home the San Francisco offense will have an answer when needed and keep their team in front on the scoreboard, even if the game becomes a shootout.

ITN Rankings:

- New England #10

- San Francisco #20

Another Niner Nation poster picked SF to win but said "don't bet on it!" We actually think this is a very solid bet to make given the odds SF is getting.

Hello Beatdowners,

We're a little new to SBNation, but wanted to share our take on what we feel will be the game to watch in the NFL this weekend.

TEN @ BAL

Our Line: Baltimore by 6

What a great matchup. Despite our convictions on who will win we will be watching this game closely come Sunday. Tennessee may be the number one rated team by Win Grade and have the largest margin of victory in the league, but there are several strong indicators that point in Baltimore's favor. First our strength of schedule ranking system Real Points shows that Tennessee is heavily overrated while Baltimore is underrated, which lays the groundwork for this upset. Next we find that even with how well the Tennessee defense has defended the run, Baltimore should have success moving the ball on the ground. The final and most important mark in the home team's favor is that despite being 4-0 and having faced lesser competition Tennessee is still an Upset Candidate. This shows that although they may have played well as a unit, Tennessee doesn't have any specific part of their game they can lean heavily upon. Baltimore on the other hand has proven that it has several aspects they excel at and flaunt a very impressive Upset Power. When we put it all together we see Baltimore improving to 3-1 and keeping pace with their division rivals.

ITN Rankings:

- Tennessee #7

- Baltimore #19

Hello Phinsiders,

We're new to SBNation and are looking forward to joining the weekly football discussion. Quoting another poster it indeed has been a while since your team was in Miami. Here is our take on this week's matchup:

SD @ MIA

Our Line: Miami by 5

As if the addition of Bill Parcels wasn't enough to turn a team from consistent loser into a .500 club, the addition of a healthy Brown certainly pushes Miami across the threshold. Don't forget about how they won at New England. Their opponent San Diego, whom we warned would struggle at Oakland, indeed did have their hands full before pulling out a late 4th quarter victory. So even though San Diego may be heating up, they are still an upset candidate according to our stats. Miami is a much better club than Oakland, is underrated, and has underplayed their potential. We see a lot of that coming to fruition this Sunday for a team that is coming off of plenty of rest to play in front of a home crowd eager to cheer on their much improved team from last year.

ITN Rankings:

- Miami #12

- San Diego #11

Hello MHR,

Long post here, so let's get right to it. Things we know Denver is good at:

1. Starting fast
2. Aerial attack
3. Winning at home
4. Giving fans at home heart attacks

Things we know Denver is not so good at:

1. 21-3
2. Defending aerial attack
3. Balanced play calling

No we aren't coaches, and you might be wondering how we can say the Denver coaching staff doesn't know how to manage an offense. We can't and we're not. But we are perplexed. There are five undefeated teams left besides Denver, and all of them except Tennessee has a time-of-possesion greater than 32:00. (Denver's is 30:21). Denver rushes the ball just under 43% of the time, the least of any of those undefeated teams. There are 12 teams in the NFL that currently rush the ball less than 43% of the time, and only one team (Eagles) has a defense that ranks in the top half of the league.

So what are we trying to say? As long as the defense continues to struggle, the offense needs to do as much as it can to help, and we really do think running the football more will help out the defense. We wrote an article about "Analyzing great offenses" earlier this year, and the topic came up about what the goal of an offense is.

"...When an offense steps on the field, is their goal to gain as many yards as possible? Or to gain as many yards per play? I don't think it's either. I would even argue that their goal isn't to score as many points as possible. I think great offenses step on the field with the goal of creating the largest margin of points scored as possible for their team. It's not just that you score; it's also how you score."

Our biggest example of this was the Rams' offense from 1999-2001. Many people pointed to the 2000 Rams as having the greatest offense ever, since they had the most yards passing and total yards ever. We wholeheartedly disagreed. That team finished 10-6, and did not win a playoff game. The 2000 Rams fell in love with their passing game that year, and the team as a whole suffered. Sure the defense was bad that year, but the team lost the offensive balance that got the 1999 and 2001 teams to the Super Bowl.

Just running the football more isn't going to get Denver to the Super Bowl, but we do think it will make a long term difference for the team. Anyways, that was more than we planned on. To this weeks game already!

DEN @ KC

Our Line: Denver by 19

Kansas City has done two things well so far this season. Run the football and recover fumbles. But that is about it. The rankings are pretty sound on Kansas City being the worst team in the league, and they haven't shown any signs of turning that around. Meanwhile Denver is a 3-0 team that is still trying to figure itself out. The fact that they average over 300 yards a game passing but are still being outgained by their opponents in the air is worrisome at best. Fortunately for Denver, Kansas City has yet to gain over 200 yards passing in a game this year. It's likely that Denver will jump out to an early lead again, and the thing to watch in this game will be how they manage their game on both sides of the ball in order to maintain that lead.

ITN Ranking:

- Denver #5

- Kansas City #32

Hello Buc 'Em nation,

Indeed there have been some perplexing moves carterlovepie (from two posts below) by the Buccaneers. Since we cannot change the pre-season now we must focus on what is going on in the regular season, which brings us to this week's game.

GB @ TB

Our Line: Tampa Bay by 14

As a whole Green Bay is the more fundamental team in this matchup. Sure they have had problems with penalties, but they have taken pretty good care of the football and have yet to throw an interception. The same cannot be said for Tampa Bay, who has a negative turnover ratio even though they have created 5 interceptions on defense. The Achilles heel for Green Bay will be their run defense. If Tampa Bay continues to try and pass the ball two-thirds of the time there is hope Green Bay can win this game on the road. However, if Tampa decides it wants to take advantage of its 5.5 yards per carry average and rushes the football more, we see Green Bay struggling to stay in the game the same way they struggled last week hosting Dallas. We are going to give the coaching staff the benefit of the doubt and go with the latter. The Buc offense can then control the clock and wear down the injured Packer defense by the 4th quarter, giving them a comfortable if not easy victory.

ITN Rankings:

- Tampa Bay #8

-Green Bay #15

Hello fellow Cat Scratch Readers,

If you were disheartened by last week's result, next week should be a nice turnaround for you. Here is our take:

ATL @ CAR

Our Line: Carolina by 21

If you were just to look at the simple team stats for this matchup you could easily point out several different opportunities for Atlanta to pull off an upset. The Falcons have a monster rush attack, a much higher scoring offense than Carolina, and just edge them on scoring defense. Our rankings aren't buying any of it though as they know these numbers are the result of easy at home matchups against Detroit and Kansas City. Carolina is a sound unit on both sides of the ball, and has proven it can handle tough situations. We see them pulling away in the second half at home and maintaining at least a tie for the lead in the NFC South.

ITN rankings after week 3:

- Carolina #7

- Atlanta #19