Are the Steelers equipped to run the ball down people's throats?

santhome — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 21:56:11 -0000

Bumped from the diaries. Great research and interesting thoughts from santhome. -Blitz-

With the loss to the Broncos, a lot of ire has been directed towards Tomlin and Arians for implementing a pass wacky game plan. The basic argument was that we, the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the NFL, could simply line-up and run the ball down Denver's throat given that the Broncos have the worst run defense in the NFL.

A run-heavy gameplan is a good plan but only if you can really do it in a sustainable manner. A few of us on BTSC have argued that the O-line isn't up to snuff. I will suggest that when you add in the running style of FWP, it is much harder than in years past to run the ball down other teams throats even though our rushing totals are similar to those years.

To back this hypothesis up, I did a little study of the raw data behind the numbers. In 2004, we were ranked 2nd in rushing offense at 154 YPG. This year we are ranked 2nd at 159 YPG. Pretty similar, right? Now let's look at FWP's individual rushing attempts from the Denver game and compare it to Duce Staley (remember him?) vs the Patriots in the 2004 regular season. (btw, the Patriots D was ranked 6th against the rush that year)

FWP vs Broncos (2007): 21 car, 93 yds, 4.4 avg
0, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3, -1, -3, 1, 7, 1, 1, 15, 4, -4, -3, 24, 1, 1, 1, 4

Duce vs Patriots (2004): 25 car, 125 yds, 5.0 avg
4, 3, 3, 1, 4, 8, 2, 11, 2, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 4, 3, 6, 6, 6, 3, 10, 6, 4, 10, 10

As you can see, Duce had no negative rushes and only 4 out of 25 (16%) of his rushes were less than 3 yards. FWP had 11 of 21 (52%) rushes that were less than 3 yards. Regular rush attempts that are 2 yards or less are drive killers and essentially prevent you from being a run first smashmouth team (that also scores points!). You have to be able to pass the ball well to be successful.

Here's a summary of "bad" rushing attempt data from FWP's last five games:
@ DEN: 21 car, 93 yds, 4.4 avg, 52% bad
v SEA: 28 car, 102 yds, 3.6 avg, 46% bad
@ ARI: 19 car, 37 yds, 1.9 avg, 68% bad
v SF: 24 car, 133 yds, 5.5 avg, 29% bad
v BUF: 23 car, 126 yds, 5.5 avg, 43% bad

So, FWP's ability to break the big runs every now and then masks the ineffective ones when you just look at his average per attempt. I think Tomlin and Arians recognize (I suspect reluctantly) this trend of bad/ineffective rush attempts and that's why they will continue to pass more in the first half of games and in second halves till we have a big enough lead relative to the clock. I think this is smart strategy given that we have very good (and more mature) talent at the skill positions this year. Running the ball all the time when you can't actually do it in a sustainable manner will be a disaster against teams that will score a few against us. We've had great run blocking offensive lines and compatible running back styles (Bettis) for so long that we expect to be able to do that every year. The problem is we are not equipped to do it this year. We weren't able to run the ball down people's throats in '06 either but that was overshadowed by the other big problems. Sorry, Steeler Nation, I think we're just not a true smashmouth team this year. Not because we don't want to be, but because we can't be. The good news is we have coaches who seem to recognize that and are finding alternative solutions by utilizing the talent we have at other positions. After all, when was the last time we came back from 2 TDs down in the 4th quarter on the road to tie the game ?

SB Nation User Blog: santhome

Are the Steelers equipped to run the ball down people's throats?