SB Nation User Blog: scarymonsters85

The Cubs' Real Problem

scarymonsters85 — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 06:29:57 -0000

I don't think this faction of the team has been mentioned yet. Most of the talk here has been focused around losing Kerry Wood and Mark Derosa via free agency and trades. However, a facet that has been ignored amongst the blogosphere is the offensive production of our center field platoon of Fukudome and Johnson.

To preface, I don't think the changes we've made as an organization (Wood for Gregg, Derosa for Bradley) will translate into negative production for the 2009 season.

Last year in a platooning role (which favors the player), Reed Johnson posted an OPS + of 99, which is about league average. Fukudome put up an OPS + of 90.

Last year, Jim Edmonds posted a 136 ops + whilst in a Cubbie uniform, which is absolutely fantastic. To replicate the success we had in CF in 08' in 09' will be very difficult, considering our CF options are Gathright, Johnson and Fukudome. All three of those players are poor hitters, Johnson and Fukudome are good defensively, but offensively they are nothing more than average, or below average. Unless Fukudome really turns it around, this is our weak spot. However, MGMT's predilection for speed and handedness makes me uneasy going into the season.

My ideal line up would be:

Fontenot, Lee, Bradley, Ramirez, Soriano, Soto, Fukudome/Johnson, Theriot, Pitcher

The value of Theriot is completely dependent upon his batting average... if it's anywhere between .295-.305 he is useful in our lineup, but otherwise, he is nothing more than barely average.

Jim Edmonds provided a lot last season, and we are going to miss his production in the 09' season. This is not a stump to resign him, because for him to replicate his success would be ludicrous, and last year his defensive stats proved that.

Nonetheless, my biggest concern heading into 2009 is our CF, for it's our biggest hole. As long as those players (Dome and Johnson) are batting low in the line-up, the safer the team is on a whole.

It seems obvious

scarymonsters85 — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 06:12:07 -0000

Out of all of the OF free agents and or possible trades available to the Cubs this off season, I think that we should either stand pat, or get Adam Dunn. He is better and younger than Burrell, Bradley, Chone I'm only productive if I bat .330 Figgins and Milton Bradley.

Burrell is an older version of Dunn. In fact, Dunn is the youngest person on this list.

Yes, Dunn's fielding is bad, but not as bad as Burrell's or Bradley's.

Accounting Dunn's fielding prowess (or lack thereof) will still net the Cubs wins.

Bradley is the offensive equivalent to Rich Harden, who, while explosive when healthy, is not a guarantee to play a complete season. Unless you can sign Bradley to an incredibly cheap contract (3/21m), I would shy away from him.

I would sign Dunn to 3/30m.

Depending on how Dome does it would dictate whether or not you dump Derosa mid season, as we have a VERY capable 2nd basemen in Fontenot.

Yeah he platooned this year, but lifetime against LHP he put up and OPS of .683.

Lifetime, Derosa put up an OPS of .738 against RHP. At 28 (fontenots age in 08') Derosa put up a .674 OPS in a larger sample size than Fontenots lifetime 84 PA life time.

Also, at 2B, Fontenot is a better fielder evidenced by the +/- system. Oh, and he's a lefty!

Standing pat is also a good option offensively.

1. Theriot

2. Lee

3. Ramirez

4. Soriano

5. Soto

6. Dero

7. Fontenot

8. Fukudome/Pie

9. Pitcher

Playoff experience/Winning

scarymonsters85 — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 17:49:54 -0000

David Gassko has an interesting article in the HBT: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/does-experience-matter-in-the-postseason/

about whether or not having playoff experience helps you win in the playoffs. He concludes that it does.

I posted this to get some chatter out of the usual suspects( cwyers, dakoose et al).

I personally feel that the study was flawed because generally good teams will make the playoffs more often than poor teams. A team that makes the playoffs one year, will most likely repeat that success in the following years. Take the yankees for example. A team that is consistently good for 10 plus years, wins a couple of championships; they will rack up play off experience, as opposed to the marlins (x2), the dbacks, the mets and a couple of other teams they competed against. It would be ill advised to conclude that the reason they won these series' and had playoff success is due to having playoff experience.

For me to actually accept the study, there would have to be nearly overwhelming evidence to support it. It is really hard to predict an outcome of a short series ,or a 7 game series, REALLY hard. Playoff experience, as a metric for superiority is highly suspect in my book.

What do you all think?

An alternative to Dempster

scarymonsters85 — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 00:30:49 -0000

I was doing some research, and found that Brad Penny will be a free agent this year. Historically, he puts up the same type of numbers as Dempster, and would be a lot cheaper. He is also 3 years younger. I know he is coming off a bad year, and one that was spent on the DL, but historically, he's just as much as an injury risk as dempster, especially when considering the type of contract Dempster will want.

What do you all think?

Alfonso Soriano

scarymonsters85 — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 06:40:15 -0000

I've noticed there has been a lot of hate for him in these boards. I've been told it is because he, "is mediocre against good pitching, and stellar against bad pitching".

I am 23 years old, I have been playing baseball since before I was able to tie my own shoes. I've played in every competitive league available to me up to and including college ball. I am a pitcher, and a decent hitter as well.

When I started a game, I tried my best to avoid the good hitters, and make sure I didn't walk and try to challenge the bad hitters. Care to guess the results? The good hitters got more hits off of me than the poor hitters.

This translates well into professional baseball, as Soriano posted a

.245  .314  .432 line against Power pitchers and a 
.294  .334  .534 against finesse pitchers. 

His career line is 

.282  .329  .518

The argument holds true, but it isn't revolutionary. Good hitters will hit better against 
good pitchers than bad hitters will.  The problem isn't so much he can't good pitchers well, 
it's more of along the lines that he can't hit well enough to justify his contract. 

.289  .403  .554 that's Pujols' line against power pitchers, which is 45 percentage points lower than his career batting average.

Soriano's is only .37 points. 

Pujols however, is an exception, because he is in the top tier of baseball players, and for all intents and purposes and automatic hall of famer. 

Nonetheless, Soriano is not the superstar people thought he was, in fact he never really was. 

He doesn't walk enough to justify his low batting average, even though he can hit a slew of home runs. 

As long as his OBP doesn't dip below .330 he won't be a liability to the team. However, in about two years, his batting average will drop, and so will his power numbers,
slightly, but it will have an affect nonetheless. 

Drop him down in the order (4th, 5th or 6th), let him pad his stats (specifically useless ones like RBI) and use him as trade bait
once his salary becomes equal to his market value. 

After next season, dump him and start building the team around Soto.

Momentum in Baseball

scarymonsters85 — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 18:06:44 -0000

Tom Tango analyzes a commonly held belief that momentum is a strong force in baseball. I linked his post here, since the last few fanposts we've had discussed intangibles like gamers, winners and clutch.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/momentum-shmomentum/

I've studied baseball objectively for the past 6 months, the most important thing I have learned is that so-called "baseball experts" are extremely subjected to memory biases and generally are very lackluster in their ability to analyze baseball in most capacities.

Why did Billy Beane give us Harden?

scarymonsters85 — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 07:24:12 -0000

No doubt about it, Mr. Beane is a smart man. Ever since we traded for Harden we have felt smug that we ripped off Billy Beane. After thinking about it, I got stumped on this:

1) At the time of the trade the A's were within playoff reach.

2) Harden was on his way to having a career year, and having him locked up for next year, makes his value even better.

3. The A's got 3 major league ready prospects.

4. In a free agent pool in 09, Harden would have been shopped at the end of his season, if he were still on the A's... he would be a consolation prize to teams who lost out on CC and Burnett and Lowe. Still, his value would have been greater after the season.

5. After getting rid of harden, he shopped blanton, making it obvious he was not trying to contend this year.

6. By keeping blanton and harden through out the year, would have made their impact that much more.

7. Recap, they weren't playing for this year. Or next year, because with a pitching core of Blanton and Harden... they would have contended. Some may think the risk of harden getting hurt and losing his value would garnish anything of value in return, but I don't particularly think that's true. Anybody who has been interested in Harden knows the health risks involved. It's as storied as Ben Sheets. Even if he got hurt, his value would not go down that expontentially to where it wouldn't be worth it to shop him. They have have held on to Harden and Blanton and either traded them next mid season, or let them walk and get 4 draft picks. Harden's value outweigh his risks... So they aren't playing for next year or the following years, otherwise they would have eaten up the draft picks in 2010.

8. So why did Billy sell so low on two prized pitchers?

let's

scarymonsters85 — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 07:04:45 -0000

assume that the Cubs have 25 million to play around with in payroll this offseason. Even though I am against it, our priorities first lay with Dempster and Wood. Wood will get 7 or 8 million, with options and incentives. Dempster will get 13 or 14, same deal. Although, I am sure Hendry will look at any option put forth his way in terms of trades, it's safe to say ramirez, lee, soriano are coming back.

The only everyday players I think likely to be shopped are theriot and derosa.

If we sign any big name free agent (without salary dumping), it would be Adam Dunn. If done it would create the most potent line up in the modern era.

1. Theriot

2. Lee

3. Ramirez

4.Soriano

5. Dunn (RF, 1B)

6. Soto

7. Derosa (2B, RF)

8. Dome/Reed Johnson/Pie

9. Pitcher.

Could you imagine that lineup not succeeding?

In terms of free agent signing, it all depends on who the first to sign is, and for how much. If Teixiera goes first, it will be expensive for everyone. If we be aggressive, and get him first, it plays well into our hands.

The Naysayers can Choke on This

scarymonsters85 — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 05:02:06 -0000

This is my first year on BCB, and 3 seasons since I moved to this wonderful city of Chicago, upon which I immediately threw my allegiance toward the Cubs because I love National League baseball and teams that don't win a lot.

I have heard from you so called "die hard fans" that the team is choking, lacks character, sucks etc. Some of you have even gone on to say that you don't even want to watch the games, or wonder why you even root for the cubs in the first place. Do you not understand intrinsic paradox with your logic? YOU"RE CHOKING! You can't handle the pressure. Plain and simple, after watching a 163 games this season, you can't stand to watch game 164, and quite frankly, that makes me wonder how deep your allegiance runs. Are you the same type of fan who only roots for their team when they are playing well?

When I moved here, I could have easily rooted for the White Sox who just previously won a championship, but I opted to root for 66-96 Cubs.

However, take solace in this. When we signed Rich Harden we had a fairly comfortable lead in first place. We didn't sign him to get into the playoffs, by July it was fairly obvious we were playoff bound. Hendry traded for him to prevent a 3 game sweep in the NLDS. Our starting playoff rotation was set up to not fail, or more specifically, not get swept.

To say with utmost confidence that we will win the world series, or even this series, well, if I said that... I'd be lying. However, what I can say is that we will win tomorrow. And in order to win the world series, or this series, we have to win tomorrow. Baby steps. This is why I like baseball. For a team who hasn't one a world series in 100 years, you didn't think it would easy, did you? It wouldn't be poetic, it wouldn't do justice for the 100 years of misery or failure.

As Al has said throughout this season, "enjoy the ride, remember where you were at all times during the season, as it will be a memorable one".

The 2008 Chicago Cubs' Baseball season is not over yet. 1 more game.

Off-Season trades

scarymonsters85 — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 18:31:04 -0000

I know it's a bit premature, but I'm sure I am not the only one tired of debating who will be the 25th man on the post-season roster, or how we should set up our rotation. I was stumbling around the web, and found a list of the possible free-agents this season, and who would be eligible for free agency after the 09' season.

I think one area the Cubs will address, after they hammer out what they want to do with Wood and Dempster would be finding some HR power. Our centerfield spot is also empty, and I would assume Pie would be the opening day centerfielder, barring a trade or a free-agent signing.

With the exception of the Red Sox and Angels, we are the only playoff team without a 30 HR guy... the phillies have 3, the mets, brewers, white sox, tampa, each have 2.

With Fukudome a big question mark next season, I would assume the Cubs will most likely sign 3 new position players in the off-season.

With the clubhouse in shambles in Seattle, do you think it's possible we can get Ichiro?

If Matt Holliday doesn't resign with the Rockies, I would suspect the Cubs would go after him.

Again, I know this is premature, but we have 5 days until the play offs, and this is quite fun.