The comp I keep hearing since Moreland was called up is Lyle Overbay...is that fair? In saying that, I think people are saying he'll be okay, not bad and not great.

Superficially, looking at the numbers it makes sense, though Moreland put his numbers up generally being a year younger at each level. But accepting a generally comparable statistical profile, I just wonder if those who know Moreland better think this is a good comp and/or if Moreland will be better or worse than that comp.

Lord knows there are worse things than being Overbay, who has had a good career (very good from ages 27-29, and then dropped off).

F-Mart started the year dead cold, but he has a 5 game hit streak with  a .440/.652 obp/slugging line over those last 5 games.

Just 5 games, obviously, so could be as insignificant as the first week of the season when he barely got a hit. but, still, nice to see him put a good streak together, been a long time (for a 19 year old!) since he's put up numbers that make one raise an eyebrow.

Five-Star Prospects
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Four-Star Prospects

1. Adam Miller, RHP
   
2. Wes Hodges, 3B
   
3. Beau Mills, 1B
   

4. Chuck Lofgren, LHP
   
5. Nick Weglarz, LF
   
6. Aaron Laffey, LHP
   
7. Jensen Lewis, RHP
   
8. Josh Rodriguez, SS
   

9. Jordan Brown, 1B
   
10. Trevor Crowe, OF
    
11. David Huff, LHP

Continue reading this post »

The Kinston Indians 3Bman vs their SS. Read in the prospect diary below that the Indians have moved Rodriguez over Hodges in their 3B ranking (on the assumption that Rodriguez won't stick at SS, I guess), based on his superior hitting.

That's kind of contrary to the numbers, as i see them:

year of birth: 1984

experience: Rodriguez is in his 2nd year as a pro, his first year in A- was okay, with an .802 OPS and a .337 OBP. Hodges had an extra year of college. Coming into the season, John ranked Hodges as the Indians 6th best prospect, and Rodriguez as their 20th best.

defense: Rodriguez as a SS convert would presumably be good so long as he has the arm. On the other hand Hodges was voted best defensive 3Bman in the Carolina Lg in the recent BA poll, so would seem to have answered any questions about how he'd come off of his injury.

offense: Hodges is at .378/.478 vs .338/.458 for Rodriguez.

To me, none of this gives me a sense as to why the Indians would like Rodriguez more than Hodges. Rodriguez has been red-hot in August  with a 1.261 OPS -- but a hot streak of 14 games doesn't seem to make up for an otherwise solid but uninspiring resume. Hodges, on the other hand, in his first pro season seems to have the better bat and, at a minimum, the defense you'd want.

What am I not seeing that the  Indians reportedly do see in Rodriguez over Hodges?  Or is that report just bogus?

Wilson gets the call up, per roto world:

"Giants recalled RHP Brian Wilson from Triple-A Fresno.
Wilson had a 2.10 ERA for Fresno, but that came with 24 walks in 34 1/3 innings. While the Giants were hoping he'd be their closer by now, there's still little reason to think he's ready to aid the pen."

What Rotoworld misses is that, per the log of Wilson's last 10 outings, he has a 13/2 K/BB ratio during that period. Any Giants fans know if something clicked? Or is that just a small sample size fluke?

God knows the guy has the stuff to be a great reliever, just needs to limit the walks. Be interesting to see how he works out.

catchers are tough to rank, but I thought BA's top ten catchers was particularly confused. They had Clement 1st, Conger 2nd, Anderson 3rd, Towles 4th, and Teagarden all the way down at 10th. To me this overranks Conger, who has proved little ,and underranks Taylor Teagarden who looks really promising to me.

I''d probably have the top five of the list something like Clement, Teagarden,  Anderson, Towles, Conger, with Max Ramirez heading up the back 5.

Teagarden came out of college touted as a superb defensive C and even coming off of his TJ surgery is throwing out a high percentage of base stealers.

Teagarden had a 1054 OPS in High A ball (Cal Lg, though) and is at .998 in AA (small sample size caveat).

He's catching 2 or 3 days a week as a precaution coming off his injuries. That doesn't seem problematic to me. A broken back is actually better than most back injuries: the bone heals, and you're better, it's not like a chronic back condition. And, as for TJ, about 90% of pitchers not come off of TJ as good or better than before, and for a catcher it seems even less problematic -- particularly given how he's been throwing. It seems smart in the 2nd year off of TJ to limit Teagarden's throwing, but that doesn't throw up a red flag to me -- standard recovery period is 12-18 months, no?

That resume is, to me, far more impressive than others on the list aside from Clement. Conger seems to have an impressive bat, but it's unclear if he'll stick at catcher and he has a lot more to prove.

Am I overrating Teagarden, or am I right that he's being underrated? Any other comments on their catcher rankings?

if anyone wants  to see Joba's start tonight, it's on here:

http://www.cn8.tv/videoplayer/player/player.asp

thru 3 innings he looks pretty amazing. very simple delivery, and not nearly as fat as people say. and incredible life on his pitches...wonderful fade on the change.

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here's what john had to say:

1# Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Grade A- (I go back and forth between A- and B+ on this one)
2# Chris Iannetta, C, B+ (I really love him)
3# Ian Stewart, 3B, B+  (Still very young, have faith)
4# Franklin Morales, LHP, B+
5# Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, B
6# Greg Reynolds, RHP, B
7# Dexter Fowler, OF, B (tools guy making progress developing skills)
8# Shane Lindsay, RHP, B
9# Jonathan Herrera, SS, B
10# Seth Smith, OF, B (I think I like this guy more than anyone else)

Continue reading this post »

no AAA action tonight, but plenty at other levels.

in afternoon games, Lastings Milledge is 2-4 with 2 home runs. think maybe the report that he'll be the Mets starting LFer after the all-star break cheered him up a bit? maybe just a bit....

personally, I think he's going to explode on the major leagues over the second half. it's his time -- mets are very lucky not to have traded him. (actually, I take that back, they're very lucky they didn't trade him for Rich Harden, the way Blanton has pitched, that's a different story. Think Billy Beane isn't wishing he had given in to the Mets' demands and sent them Harden?)

The Mariners' current regime has received a lot of criticism for pushing their prospects too fast. Under that criticism is a general sense that there is a progression to developing prospects: once they can dominate a level, then advance them, but to do so before that messes them up somehow.

There's no proof of anything in developing prospects, so that assumption is more based on an intuition,  but it's a logical intuition -- it does seem to make sense to let guys go up a level only after they've proven they can handle a lower level, no?

Given how some of their guys  have progressed this year, though, I'm not certain that holds. After struggling with promotions, Clement is doing just great at AAA, Adam Jones has absolutely flourished, as has Balentien. Now in a different organization, but A Cabrera, also, has flourished after being pushed hard by the Mariners.

At a minimum, this seems to show that these guys haven't been hurt by being advanced too fast, and one could even guess -- and, again, it's just a guess, there's no proof of anything -- that they've responded to being pushed.

Was the prospect junkie community too hard on the Mariners? Do they not know what they're talking about when they criticized the Mariners (and the Mets, to a lesser degree) on this score?

here's our top 30?

who is your most overrated and underrated guy on our collective wisdom/foolishness?

Continue reading this post »

here was John's take pre season:

1# Delmon Young, OF, Grade A (Seven Skill player)
2# Reid Brignac, SS, Grade A- (Breakthrough season with the bat)
3# Evan Longoria, 3B, A- (plate discipline an issue?)
4# Jacob McGee, LHP, B+ (breakthrough lefty increased velocity)
5# Jeff Niemann, RHP, B+ (can he stay healthy?)
6# Wade Davis, RHP, B+ (I still love him)
7# Elijah Dukes, OF, B (Grade A if not for attitude)
8# Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, B (breakthrough for 2007)
9# Mitch Talbot, RHP, B (nice find from Astros)
10# Joel Guzman, INF-OF, B (status has slipped but still very young)

how would the D-Rays be configured now in a top 10? risers/fallers? hits/misses? On thing that's notable is that BA and BP's lists are pretty indistinguishable from John's -- a good deal of consensus here, which is sort of unusual given how stacked the system is...sort of thought that'd given room for disagreement.

what would you rather do, argue in endless threads over how/when to have a new top 50/100/250? or actually talk about prospects? lol..it's all good, just taking a poke.

look forward to the Indians' crew take on this, as well as everyone else's -- who are the risers/fallers? who was missed/who tabbed a guy on the mark?

here's john's list:

1# Adam Miller, RHP, Grade A- (proved he was healthy after rough '05)
2# Chuck Lofgren, LHP, A- (power lefty is developing rapidly, is A- too high?)
3# Brian Barton, OF, B+ (only negative is age, but I love his tools, skills, statistics, intelligence, and work ethic)
4# John Drennen, OF, B (will need some time but his bat is promising)
5# Brad Snyder, OF, B (Jeromy Burnitz Part Two)
6# Wes Hodges, 3B, B (One of my favorite bats from '06 draft)
7# Trevor Crowe, OF, B- (good speed, patience makes him a good leadoff guy)
8# Tony Sipp, LHP, B- (power lefty for the bullpen should be ready soon)
9# David Huff, LHP, B- (polished finesse lefty should move quickly)
10# Edward Mujica, RHP, B- (underrated bullpen arm deserves attention)

how bout the Yanks?

here's how John had them:

1# Phil Hughes, RHP, Grade A
2# Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B+
3# Humberto Sanchez, RHP, Grade B+
4# Joba Chamberlain, RHP, B
5# Tyler Clippard, RHP, B
6# Dellin Betances, RHP, B
7# J. Brent Cox, RHP, B
8# George Kontos, RHP, B-
9# Christian Garcia, RHP, B-
10# Ian Kennedy, RHP, B-

hits and misses? climbers and fallers? who shouldn't have been here? who should have?

comparing this list to BA and BP, BA's came out before Humberto Sanchez was traded to the Yanks. But BA gets points for ranking Ian Kennedy much higher (#5) than either John or BP.

let's do a team or two from the AL East...how have their top 10 prospects fared since the start of the season. Gone up in your estimation? Down? Who was ignored who shoulda been there, given a few months worth of hindsight?

Continue reading this post »

wed night baseball....

in early games Wes Hodges has another 2 hits already for Kinston.

what else will go on tonight? don't see any big-time pitching match-ups, but likely I missed something on a quick scan through.

Continue reading this post »

what the heck, let's do another of these.

here's John's top 10. where would u rank these guys now and why/how would u rearrange them?

1# Fernando Martinez, OF, A- (tools and youth, just needs refinement)
2# Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Grade A- (I think the breaking pitch problem is overblown. He had a good one in college and I think he'll find it again. I am sticking with my guns on this one)
3# Phil Humber, RHP, B+ (Many prefer him over Pelfrey, I like both)
4# Carlos Gomez, OF, B (great tools, but I'm not sure about his power)
5# Jon Niese, LHP, B- (projectable lefty is a personal favorite)
6# Deolis Guerra, RHP, B- (live arm, a long way away)
7# Kevin Mulvey, RHP, B- (accidently left off first list)
8# Joe Smith, RHP, B- (impressive reliever could advance fast)
9# Mike Carp, 1B, B- (developing power bat to watch)
10# Alay Soler, RHP, C+ (Cuban defector looks better as a reliever to me than a starter)

We're well into June, with a few months of baseball behind us, how are the various prospect lists doing?

For the braves, here is John's pre season rankings:

1# Eric Campbell, 3B, Grade B+  (I really like his bat)
2# Elvis Andrus, SS, Grade B+  (I really like his birthday, lots of development potential)
3# Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Grade B (I am more worried about reports of excess weight gain and defensive problems in the Arizona Fall League more than his erratic regular season)
4# Matt Harrison, LHP, B
5# Brandon Jones, OF, B
6# Joey Devine, RHP, B (he has been handled poorly but still has a good arm)
7# Yunel Escobar, SS, B  (you can read the comment I wrote below)
8# Jamie Richmond, RHP, B (an aggressive grade but the numbers are great and my intuition likes him)
9# Scott Thorman, OF-1B, B- (below 150 at-bats so he goes in the book)
10# Chase Fontaine, SS, B-

first thing that pops out at me is TB pitching prospect Matt Walker's truly weird line. 5 hits and 5 walks in 2 innings, and only gave up 2 runs. One DP, but still not quite sure how that's possible. Must have been some baserunners thrown out, I guess.

in any case, Walker was already pitching himself out of prospect status, and this doesn't help.

so what's going on today/tonight?

in afternoon games, niemann had a poor outing vs louisville -- 4.1 IPS/5 ER/4 Ks/4BBs.

j ellsbury is struggling a bit since his promotion to AAA Pawtucket, going 1-6 during a double header, and OPSing around .700 or so.

...............

anything elese?

Have there been any sitings of Cesar Carrillo? Further to the discussion below in re Benson et al, I do wonder why these guys just don't have surgery sooner rather than later.

Haven't seen Carrillo's name in any Padres box score, nor does a google search turn up anything -- is he just still feeling sore?

there is discussion whenever lincecum comes up about how smaller guys need to be discounted because they are more injury prone. i just read something similar on ESPN regarding Matsusaka -- 6-0, supposedly, but with a "slight" frame, they say (looks like he's smaller than 6'0 to me, but that's just a guess).

the argument of lincecum detractors (detractors on this point, that is) is that most successful pitchers are tall. The argument is usually put in terms that "so-and-so is big enough to withstand the rigors of throwing 200 innings" or "withstand the rigors of throwing 95 MPH consistently." So go for a guy like Hochevar over Lincecum, because Hochevar can handle the rigors of a pro season better than the small guy.

my take on this is that two things are being conflated. size and its impact on chances of being a good pitcher, on the one hand, and size and its impact on chances of being injured, on the other hand.

in regard to the first issue, there's no doubt (in my mind) that being tall is an advantage. It allows the pitcher to throw "downhill", as they say. The easiest explanation/analogy is that we all know that if a mound is raised 4 inches league ERAs will go down by a significant amount. That leverage from pitching on high makes for better pitches, obviously.

thus, if I'm a scout looking at two 17 or 18 yo high school flamethrowers who are having great success against other high school kids, and one is 6'4 and the other 5'8, I recommend my team select the 6'4 guy every time. There's just a much better chance that the tall guy will be successful -- he has a basic physical advantage.

but, on the other hand, I don't see any evidence that this means the smaller kid is more likely to be injured. There's no real statistical evidence on this -- we all know that, frankly, most pitchers get injured, it seems, so it's not really valid to point at Liriano or Prior or Wood and say, see!, big guys get injured or, on the other hand, point to small guys who have been similarly injured.

in the absence of any significant studies correlating size and injury, by common sense I'd say that it's unlikely to be the case. in general terms, smaller guys in most sports are perceived as having more stamina -- be it in the marathon or in basketball or in soccer. There's no reason throwing hard will mean more wear and tear for a smaller guy's arm than a bigger guy's arm. My guess is it might be the opposite, but there's not proof for that, either. But certainly you watch a sport like basketball or soccer and the big guys tend to get worn down quicker.

But that's meaningless speculation, my larger point is this:

at age 17/18, you'd choose the 6'4 guy every time. But, at the point that two guys have proven they can get major leaguers out, there's no reason to take the bigger guy. If the smaller guy has shown the skills to get guys out, despite his size, he obviously has other abilities that allow him to make up for the greater leverage of the big guy. So there's no reason to think that Pedro is more likely to get injured than Prior, or Oswalt than Kerry Wood (in fact, in both cases the smaller guy has likely been healthier).

In other words, people are conflating the valid argument that a taller guy is likely to be the better pitcher with the likelihood that the taller guy is more likely to be injury free, for which there is no evidence. Once a shorter guy has proven he can be successful at the major league level, there's no reason to favor a bigger guy over him. On a skill level, the shorter guy has proven that he's the exception -- a taller guy will be better 90% of the time, but 10% of the time (just making up a number) the shorter guy will have extra skills to compensate. That chance for success was never based on being susceptible to injury, so once the small guy proves to have a legit pro skill set, he's just as likely to succeed.

Similarly in terms of Hochevar and Lincecum, I like Lincecum's statistical profile better than Hochevar's, and at this point it seems to me he's the better prospect. Neither are immune from injury, obviously, but there's no reason to downgrade Lincecum for his height since he's proven he can pitch effectively at that height (and there is no evidence it requires extra strain, by all reports he's very smooth). That Hochevar has had a shoulder "twinge" obviously adds an exclamation point to that argument, but it's really not germane. The fundamental point is that people conflate a probability of being good with a probability of not being injured.

Does that make sense?

I noticed that Baseball America ranked, among RH'd pitching prospects, Hochevar 3rd and Lincecum 4th (behind Hughes and Bailey, obviously). There's been a lot of discussion her of Bailey vs Hughes but not much (though maybe I missed some -- diaries can pass quickly) of Hochevar and Lincecum. I'd love either but am genuinely puzzled as to which of the two I would prefer. Any opinions out there?