Hopefully, Jerry's days are numbered. So who should be our next manager? I have three guys I would like to see here for different reasons.

1. Bobby V. It sucked when he got dumped without Steve Phillips going out the door with him. I believe he has unfinished business with the organization and is a fine manager who is tough on his players but gets results. Pros; Winner in Japan knows the fans and the media here and is a tough son-of-a-bitch.
Cons; Might be too hard on veterans who often commented in the media about him. Some players would not come here as FA's if he were manager because of his reputation.

2. Buck Showalter. Yup, out of left field but he is a guy worth considering. Tough on his guys like Bobby V. and knows how to build a championship caliber team as witnessed by his tenure at the Yankees then D-Backs.
Pros; can tell a new GM who to pick up to make this team win now. Does not take crap from vets or rookies alike. Sets up team to win.
Cons; very much like Bobby V. lots of players don't like him and wouldn't come to Citi to play for him. Can be a real hot head as witnessed by some of his on and off field antics.Might be too old for this.

3.Bob Brenly; "Wow Scott From Peekskill where are you getting these names?" Well this guy took over in Az from Showalter and won a WS against the New York Juggernaut. My favorite moment in baseball since 1986 was seeing the look on Mariano Rivera's face as he lost the Yankees the 2001 World Series.
Pros; Can take a team ready to win to the pinnacle and extract the most from his guys. Vets love to play for this guy, Schilling, Johnson, et al, love this guy and that is high praise coming from 2 of baseball's biggest whiners. Under him, I believe, Wright, Reyes, Davis (eventually) and the other younger guys would flourish. he also came up with one of baseballs best quotes "You could probably throw a dart into the dugout and hit a better fielder than Alfonso Soriano"
Cons; been out of managing for 6 years and doesn't appear to want to come back.

It appears the Mets and Reds are at least discussing a trade to bring Bronson Arroyo to the Mets. I like this idea more than bringing in his stablemate Aaron Harang.

From SBnation scouting reports:

Harang Pros: He uses his size to his advantage and is fairly durable, able to pitch effectively beyond the fifth inning. Can strike batters out with aplomb.

Arroyo pros: He's an economical pitcher who locates his pitches well. Right-handed hitters find him particularly tough.

Harang Cons: Has trouble getting ahead in the count and struggles against right-handed hitters. Injuries are also a concern moving forward.

Arroyo Cons: Needs to work on his ability to pitch beyond the sixth inning and isn't as effective from the stretch with runners on.

I think most of us here agree that wins are not the way to rate a pitcher. Many other stats give a better representation of a pitchers ability. However, Harang has been 12-31 in the last two seasons and this is troubling.

Harang has not been the same pitcher he was in 06-07. In '06 Harang threw 234 innings and followed that in '07 with 231 innings. These are not  crazy high numbers, he was effective and threw 103.3 pitches per outing. From then on however, things have gone downhill. '08 and '09 saw him  throw less innings but throw similar numbers of pitches per inning. Is he less able to put a batter away? It would appear so.

Simply put, he is becoming less able to put away hitters and has to throw more to get through an inning. This might be because of injury due to throwing so many innings in '06 and '07. Better stat heads will be able to argue using more advanced peripherals.

Arroyo has pitched over 200 innings consistently since 2005 and while the number of walks per outing has remained steady, his strikeouts have diminished 184k in 06 down to 127k last season.

Both seems to be on very slow downward trends. So who is the better catch?

Omar is a guy pressured by fans and the media to continually bring home the big name. Except for '06 this has not been a winning formula. The other problem is our farm system has few (if any) "superstars of tomorrow."  Even if we bring in Bay or Holliday there is still no guarantee of a winning season.

So realistically are we looking at 1,2,3,4,5,10 or more years before we reach the World Series again?

So like many other fans I have been wondering if Harang or Arroyo are really available this offseason. I went looking on various blogs (skip Reds blogs, they all live in the past) and found very little. The Cincinnati Enquirer did have this though:

The Reds are trying to keep their payroll as last year’s level of $73.5 million. They are already close to that point.

Another rumor had Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo available. Jocketty said the Reds have heard from clubs on veteran pitchers.

"A little bit," Jocketty said, "not a lot."

His preference is keep them.

"A lot of clubs are asking because we have a lot of pitching depth," he said, "both starters and relievers. It’s a strength. I’d like to keep a strength."

Harang makes $12.5 million next season; Arroyo $11 million. The thought is the Reds may want to add budget flexibility by moving one of them. But Jocketty sounds like he’ll try to keep them.

"If I can make it work and keep everybody, we’d be better off," he said. "But we’ll see."

That is not say neither will be traded. But the offers so far have been underwhelming.

"Nobody’s really wowed us with deals yet," he said.

"Saying that though, if the Mets offer us a bag of balls and a stick of big league chew they can have who they want."

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2009/12/08/meetings-day-ii-part-iii/

Interesting story. The last line is made up.

So are the Reds really strapped for payroll and need to trade a starter? Or do they want to keep what they have? Is this story a way for the Jocketty to alert other teams of his need for a starter?

I think Maine for Arroyo might work for both teams.

So I think we should name and position a Mets team with guys at each position we don't want to see here. We have tons of fun putting in the AAOP team we want, time for one we don't want.

Of course we are not going to sign all of these guys (oh, god, please no!) and hopefully we sign none of them, but some names have already been floated and brought negative reaction.

So here is my "Oh no...we signed him!?!?!?!" team.

C Bengie Molina  Haven't heard anyone actually advocating for him.

1b Adam laroche This guy just does not fill me with hope or inspiration. Surely we can do better.

2b Luis Castillo Ok, ok, he is already on the team but I so wish he was playing for Pittsburgh!

3b Well, we know who will be playing 160+ games here so no need to go there.

SS Alex Cora Yup we signed him but if he plays more than a handful of games here then our season is as shot as Tiger Woods Cadillac SUV

LF Milton Bradley Ugh, I shudder at the thought! But Jose Guillen makes me cringe too. Please sign Holliday.

CF Safe bet Mr. Beltran is here, we hope.

RF Jeff Frangrission Actually I don't mind him too much. He might be useful and is only keeping the seat warm for F-Mart hopefully. Can't think of anyone else I wouldn't like here.

SP Jason Marquis Not the worst signing out there but he had a career year and I just don't know if he will repeat those numbers

SP Joel Pineiro Omar seems smitten with the guy and I think his numbers are pretty much below average.

SP Oliver Perez Oops, one year too late to post him here.

SP Tim Redding Had 5 or 6 reasonable starts last season, but had 10 truly aweful ones too. Maybe his injury effected his start to the season and he will bounce back nicley this season. I hope he bounces back for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but not us.

SP Livan Harnandez Just let him go.

OK your turn.

Since james pointed Fanposts to me (thanks Amigo) and I have a really long a boring thanksgiving weekend (thanks pilgrims) I might as well fire off another post.

How about this for a crazy trade; Castillo and Reese Havens to Cinncy for Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips?

i kind would like to see this, don't think it will happen because Phillips is being paid peanuts relatively and Havens might not appeal to them.

Is there any possibility Murphy is converted into a 2b for next season? When Davis is ready he will presumably take over full time at 1b. If not is Murphy going to be traded?

If Omar called you and said "Pick one of our prospects who will become untouchable" who would you pick?

To me its Ike Davis. I like the fact that he is the kid of a former MLB player, has the "goods" that scouts like and most importantly; he is improving as he matures.

His Father said in the Post this week that he thinkes Ike could play 10-15 seasons. That would be awesome to have a home grown 1b on the team and in our core for that long.

But whom would pick?

How would people feel if in Jan 2011 we trade Beltran to Boston for Ellsbury and prospects then traade them to Tampa for Crawford.

It would mean F-Mart would play CF. Any problems with this?

SS Reyes

RF Crawford

3b Wright

LF Holliday

CF F-Mart

1b IkeC Thole

2b Castillo or a prospect

P

it would be a young team with a great core, lots of speed and it would be cheap. On the downside; lack of experience, not enough power and Castillo is a dinosaur.

So i made a jerk of myself calling James' idea of trading for Milton Bradley "a retarded idea," so now its your turn to call ME a retard.

C Santos. He is cheap and he is ours.

C Greg Zaun/Molina. I dont want to spend money on these guys but we need a solid back up to Santos with the position is going to Thole in 2011 we all hope. Spend no more than $5mill/1year

1b Murphy / Garrett Atkins. Yup he will be non-tendered by all reports. He is right handed with a bat, plays reasonable D and is a good hitter of Left handed pitching. He should compliment Murphy well and he plays 3b to rest Wright.

2b Castillo. I don't think he will be traded. In this case we will need a good bench glove to relieve him in tight defensive situations and when the Pelf pitches

3b Mr Wright

SS Reyes. Time to show what he is worth in a contract year.

LF Matt Holliday. 5yrs/100mil. The Wilpons will make this splash to show fans "We brought in the big name free agent for YOU!"

CF Mr. Beltran

RF Francgrission. Don't love the guy and don't believe the bull about a "football mentality" but he has an arm and is cheap. Hopefully he is keeping the spot warm for a rejuvenated F-Mart

SP Mr. Santana

SP Randy Wolf.  3 yrs 27m. Should have signed him and not Ollie last offseason. Mr. consistency even if consistency is 2.0 WAR

SP The Pelf. Please improve!

SP O. Perez. Huge contract for a 0 WAR pitcher. His off season should be productive rehabbing in Arizona. Fingers crossed he comes back a reformed man. Might save Omars' job if he wins 15 games.

SP John Maine. Chance he comes out throwing nasty stuff (oh, God please!) but there is the possibility he is done. Someone mentioned he could be a set up man in the 8th inning. Might be good to have him in the pen and sign a Ben Sheets or Rich Harden on a low cost one year deal.

The bench and bullpen are too hard to predict. The closer and 3 spots seem filled and we do need another lefty to rest Pedro. We need speed and a good glove to cover the infield while not spending too much money. I like Pagan as our 4th outfielder a lot, certainly more than a Milton Bradley or Jose Guillen.

Not flashy and not a huge difference from one year ago, but I hope its realistic.