Help! Can someone explain Blake/Miller/Roy?

seablaz — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:24:22 -0000

Ok, i've seen a few fanposts that touch on the Blake/Miller/Roy starting lineup, but i still just don't get it. Why start Blake over Rudy or Martel, both of whom seem better suited for the role? Rudy can shoot, moves well without the ball, is a great passer... ok, he's not a great defender but neither is blake. And Rudy seems to be lost, what better way to show confidence in him than start him? Martel has looked good this year too.

I don't get the "showcasing blake for a trade" (how does making him a shooting guard do that?) or "preparing for Andre to take over the starting spot". How does playing both players help that?

Can someone present a compelling argument or at least spell out the theories with pros/cons as to why we've moved to this lineup? It seems like a gimmick, an act of desperation by a coach who has run out of answers. And if this lineup isn't the answer long term, is the answer a new coach (who can find a long term solution)?

Help me understand!?

Creating an Offensive Advantage

seablaz — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 15:59:41 -0000

Several analysts mentioned that the playoffs this year demonstrated that Portland relies too heavily on Brandon Roy to create offense. The playoffs come at the end of the year, when players are weary. The jump shots that were falling at the beginning of the year seem to rattle in and out a bit more. And the playoffs are much more physical so the players have to deal with the additional challenge of scoring while absorbing an extra bump or grab or both. These challenges separate the teams that have succesful offense schemes from those who rely too heavily on the razor thin edge of the talent of their players alone.

I always felt that succesful playoff teams have an offensive scheme that creates an inherent advantage. In other words, they have a play or player or system that makes sure they are never playing 5 on 5 or competing on a level playing field. These teams can rely on these plays to give them an advantage that doesn't go away when you are tired or being pushed more than normal in the playoffs.

Creating systems that demand a double team or switch are great ways to create an offensive advantage. Orlando could dump the ball down to Dwight Howard, which demanded a Cleveland double team. Howard could go 1:1 or pass out of the double to an open 3 point shooter. It doesn't matter how you defend that play... if you have to double team, Orlando will always have an advantage. Orlando built their team around that offensive advantage. Cleveland recognized this and obtained Shaq this offseason to try to neutralize that play.

Note that these offensive advantage plays don't just create an advantage for a particular player, they create an advantage for the whole team. They open up a myriad of possibilities in which ever player can be a threat if needed. If your play doesn't open up the offense for the team, it won't create an offensive advantage for long, as other teams will adapt and shut it down.

Another example of a play that was run ceaselessly against the Blazers to create an offensive advantage is the pick and roll. Done with the right players, the pick and roll creates an instant offense advantage for the team running it. If you don't pull your forward out, the guard can shoot over the top of the pick. If you do, the forward can roll to the basket. At best, you can help to defend the rolling forward but that opens up other players. You can't just guard one person or one possibility. It opens up a myriad of possibilities for the offense.

My problem with the Blazers is that they don't seem to have any plays that consistantly create an inherent offensive advantage. And this kills them in the playoffs. It was a common observation that "if you shut down Brandon Roy, you shut down the Blazers" offensively in the playoffs.

The problem is that the only player they have that can consistantly create an offensive advantage is Brandon Roy, by drawing double teams when he penetrates. Brandon can penetrate and finish so consistently that teams are forced to collapse on him opening things up for the rest of the team.

But Brandon doesn't create an advantage for the team because he rarely passes out of the double team. He shoots through it. Most of the time is AMAZING at it. But the Blazers cannot win on that alone. Come playoff time , Brandon is the only Blazer who can score consistently without an inherent advantage and he doesn't create one for others. And even if he could, it takes so much energy for him to create that advantage that we couldn't run it over and over the way you can a well run pick and roll.

The more i started thinking about this, the more i came to like Hedo Turkgolu, and his "side pick and roll". He could have helped to create an offensive advantage that would benefit everyone on the court. Likewise, the less i liked Gerald Wallace and David Lee. Gerald would be great for our perimeter defense, but he does not contribute to creating a play or system that gives the Blazers an inherent advantage. Likewise, David Lee gives us neither a defensive lift or an offensive advantage. Both Wallace and Lee can score... once other players have created an offensive advantage.

Unfortunately, i don't see much out there in the free agent market, other than Hedo, that will give the Blazers the offensive advantage they need. Is Heinrich fast enough and a good enough finisher to consistently draw double teams? Will Oden develop into a post force that demands a double team? Will LaMarcus toughen up and pound the post until teams are forced to double? How can we avoid a repeat of this year's playoffs at the offensive end?
I'm just not seeing it, so as far as i can tell, unless we pull off an imbalanced trade, we are in for another succesful season followed by an early playoff departure.

Thoughts?

SB Nation User Blog: seablaz

Help! Can someone explain Blake/Miller/Roy?

Creating an Offensive Advantage