SB Nation User Blog: seattlebruin

Robert bets the mods the Mariners will be average - update

seattlebruin — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:07:56 -0000

September of last year, our intrepid hero made the following bet - if the Mariners are within five games of .500 at the conclusion of play, August 31, 2009, he becomes a mod for the month of September. If the Mariners fall outside this nine-game window, each mod gets to cockpunch him at a time and location of their choosing.

Just today, new user Poochie asked for an update on the status of the bet.

I've created a simple WE chart for the bet, based on a simple binomial distribution, and assuming the Mariner's current Pythagorean Expectation to be their odds of winning the next game. After that, it was a simple matter (well with a lot of numbers) to determine the approximate odds of the Mariners winning between 64 and 69 games before September 1

robert2 (via seattlebruin)

After tonight's game against the Orioles, the M's have a Pythagorean expectation of .442 from here on out, and they've won 25 games already. Thus, I simply needed to find the probability of them winning between 38 and 43 of the next 80 games. As you can see, the odds aren't bad - about 40%.

I repeated this process retroactively for the beginning of the season - as you can see, the team was much too good to hover around .500 at the start of the year. Ironically, the high point of the graph came on Silva's last start - it's been all downhill from there.

EDIT: Updated through tonight's 3-2 victory over Baltimore - Robert checking in at a robust 26.4% chance to avoid three junkpunches

Poll

Who will win the bet?

Jeff, Matthew and Graham

29 votes

Robert

32 votes

Everyone

170 votes

231 votes | Poll has closed

The Miguel Batista Memorial BookcLLub: Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

seattlebruin — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:17:44 -0000

So, welcome to the first discussion forum for Pride and Prejudice and Zombies! You should have read through chapter 24, so if you haven't read that far, either don't read the thread (yet) or don't complain about spoilers.

Discussion questions/topics

1. First impressions (and second impressions, since we read a third of the novel)

2. Comparisons between Pride and Prejudice vs. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

3. Characters so far - strengths, weaknesses, who is likable/dislikable, and why?

4. How has the view of marriage changed both relative to time, distance from England and the number of zombies roaming the American countryside?

5. Please pose other discussion questions!

EDIT: Need to discuss what book we should read next so people can get started acquiring it. The leading suggestion right now is The Avenger of Blood by Miguel Batista, but please make suggestions.

The Avenger of Blood - Miguel Batista

2009 Open Statistical Analysis Question Thread

seattlebruin — Tue, 05 May 2009 16:50:18 -0000

EDIT(11:20AM): For anyone new to LL or advanced analysis, this is the perfect time to ask any question, no matter how basic. I can't stress this strongly enough.

We've discussed some more advanced nuts&bolts-type stuff in the comments, but even if you have a question like "what are tRA and wOBA and why do you use them instead of OPS and FIP," ask ask ask!

We had one of these last year, and it seemed to work out pretty well to get people's questions, however basic answered.

I think it would be a good idea to do this again this year, esepcially with the influx of new posters to Lookout Landing, it would be nice to have a place where you can ask any advanced analysis question and have it answered by someone with great knowledge of this area.

Jeff, Matthew, and Graham have been great at answering questions, and another thing I'm hoping will happen here is that other knowledgeable non-mod posters will be able to contribute and help out as well. I know that at least for me personally, I've learned a ton just in the last year, to the point where I'd be comfortable fielding at least basic questions regarding advanced analysis and metrics.

So feel free to ask any question and we'll do our best to answer them. I'd ask that the regulars really take it easy on everyone in this thread and just do your best to help the asker understand, no matter how basic the query.

Of course this doesn't mean that I don't have my own questions that I'd like to have answered, and honestly, part of this thread was me being selfish enough to make a FanPost hoping to get a few answers out of everyone.

- How does pitching tRA convert to runs above/below average? Is it just a simple [(tRAplayer-tRAleague)*xO]/27?

- What's the definition of replacement-level for a pitcher? For a hitter, we know it's ~20 runs per 600 PA or like .033 runs/PA. Is there a similar sliding scale for pitchers? Is it different for relievers/starters? And what would be that number, if there is one.

- It's my understanding that positional adjustments are defined so that an average hitter at a position in relation to his peers who is exactly an average fielder will always be worth 2 WAR. Why do we value positions like C and SS over corner OF and 1B? Shouldn't a 2 WAR player be a 2 WAR player, regardless of position? I understand scarcity, but due to positional adjustment, shouldn't a 2 WAR catcher be just as available as a 2 WAR LF?

- How does positional adjustment work if a guy plays a lot of positions? Does he just get each positional adjustment multiplied by percentage of playing time at a given spot?

- Are positional adjustments based on ~600 PA? Do you get a bigger adjustment if you play, say CF, and get 700 PAs in a season?

Also, when this is all said and done, I'll try to compile the answers and post them in a new FanPost so we'll have a lot of good information stuck in one spot.

OTFPOT(SAOT) Starting 2009-05-04

seattlebruin — Mon, 04 May 2009 19:04:06 -0000

I have no purpose in posting this OFFTOP. I have no particular subjects I want to discuss (except beer!), no particular links to share or images to chortle over. I just need a dose of LL off-topicness, especially given that the last two are both well over 1,000 comments and no one seems to be posting in them.

So please, come, enjoy, talk about stuff related to the Mariners or not (we should rename Scrappy's to the Rally Puppy!) and don't think about how little effort I put into this FanPost.

I can't believe I strung that out for more than 75 words.

EDIT: One of my life goals is to be able to view the rec leaderboard on my own. What are your random life goals?

LL SoCal 2009, Part I

seattlebruin — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 01:54:14 -0000

Alright all, since quite a few of us live in Southern California full time, who's up for a meetup next ~~Saturday~~ Sunday for the game against the hated Angels?

Not sure what there is to do around the stadium (I know there's a few bars, but given that it's Anaheim, it's a fair bet they suck), but we could meet up, have a few beers, get abender the Speedway Stout he can't find, and watch the M's smoke the Angels.

I don't have tickets yet, I'd imagine they won't be too expensive, even if we get them as a group for everyone who doesn't have them.

EDITED: Sounds like Jeff is going to go Sunday, not Saturday, so how does Sunday sound instead? We can still do group tickets, and maybe we can meet up before/after for lunch/drinks. Let me know.

2009 NCAA Tournament Day 2 Open Thread

seattlebruin — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 18:25:10 -0000

Welcome to Day 2 of the Madness!

Some fantastic games last night, lucky escapes by certain higher seeds. Hope today is just as good. Should be some interesting stuff, not too many 1 and 2 seeds playing today.

If the morning games are any indication...

Sorry for not having any deep thoughts today, I'm just trying to get to the limit so we can have a discussion thread

(8) Tennessee vs. (9) Oklahoma State

(6) Marquette vs. (11) Utah State

(3) Syracuse vs. (14) Stephen F. Austin

(3) Kansas vs. (14) North Dakota State

(6) Arizona State vs. (11) Temple

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (16) East Tennessee State

(3) Missouri vs. (14) Cornell

(6) West Virginia vs. (11) Dayton

2009 NCAA Tournament Day 1 Open Thread

seattlebruin — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 15:57:58 -0000

Alright guys, it's finally here, the Christmas day of the college hoops world. It's Madness time!

No more bitching about seedings and pairings, no more thinking about matchups and injuries and team colors and stupid mascots based on civilizations that lost ancient wars.

What do your guy's brackets look like? I'm in a pool where last gets money back and there's a lot of reward for upsets, so I have a super high risk/reward bracket with UCLA, Syracuse, Louisville and Memphis in the FF with Louisville taking it all.

Schedule

SOUTH (8) Louisiana State 75 vs. (9) Butler 71 - FINAL

WEST (2) Memphis 81 vs. (15) Cal State - Northridge 70 - FINAL

WEST (8) Brigham Young 66 vs. (9) Texas A&M 79 - FINAL

WEST (5) Purdue 61 vs. (12) Northern Iowa 56 - FINAL

SOUTH (1) North Carolina 101 vs. (16) Radford 58 - FINAL

WEST (7) California - Berkeley 71 vs. (10) Maryland 84 - FINAL

WEST (1) Connecticut 103 vs. (16) Chattanooga 47 - FINAL

WEST (4) Washington 71 vs. (13) Mississippi State 58 - FINAL

EAST (7) Texas vs. (10) Minnesota - Greensboro, NC

SOUTH (7) Clemson vs. (10) Michigan - Kansas City, MO

EAST (3) Villanova vs. (14) American - Philadelphia, PA

SOUTH (4) Gonzaga vs. (13) Akron - 4:25 PM, Portland, OR

OFFICIAL EFF YOU NCAA SELECTION COMMITTEE THREAD

seattlebruin — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 22:31:06 -0000

also contains off-topic stuff.

HEY NCAA SELECTION COMMITTEE I HATE YOU

ANYONE BUT VILLANOVA

THREE STRAIGHT WEEKS PLEASE NO NOVA PLEASE NO NOVA PLEASE NO NOVA

SORRIES ALSO GO TO -

MEMPHIS FANS BECAUSE UCONN BLOWS. At least your bracket is weak and you're going to the Final Four

WASHINGTON FANS BECAUSE HOLY CRAP IS THAT THE WORST DRAW EVER

Who else do you people like?

Talk about basketball now.

EFF YOU GONZAGA FOR SUCH AN EASY DRAW

Lookout Landing Xbox 360 Post Part 2

seattlebruin — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 00:27:37 -0000

Alright, there's been a metric craptonne of Xbox 360 discussion going on in the OTFPOTDs lately, so here's a second FanPost dedicated to the subject.

We should get some Lookout Landing games going - Coach, tootthekazoo and I have been playing, and we see Scruffy Lefty and seattlesundevil on a lot too. I know a bunch of you have just mentioned getting Xboxes and live (Brayden, Thingray, kevin_ess, Teej) so let's get some Call of Duty 5 games going!

So, post your screennames, add me (seattlebruin) and let's organize a time to actually get some real LL games going. We can even make like toot and put a [*LL*] clan tag on.

OTFPOTD 1/19, Why Graham is Probably Wrong Edition

seattlebruin — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 17:46:57 -0000

Or, to be more correct, why Graham is Probably ~~Wrong~~ wr9iong Edition

1. He's short. Everyone knows you can't trust short people. Instead of stabbing you in the back, they'll stab you in the ass, and we all know how much that would suck (right?)

2. They don't play baseball in England. Why should you trust him? He should have studied at some prestigious American university, like say here.

3. While we're on the subject of the British, the Stamp Act of 1765 would like to say hi

4. He doesn't want to live near you if you're smart. We all know that's just a sign that that 146 > Graham's IQ. He just doesn't want to admit that this makes him less desirable to employers

5. Master's degree? Bullshit. Why not doctorate?

6. Questionable tastes in bad baseball players

7. I won't even get started on Asian people.

Discussion Topics

- Why CoD5 Multiplayer is awesome, and ya'll should get Xboxes and play with us!

- Yay Felix!

- What's your dream job, besides being just like Jose Lopez?

- Random thing you just can't stop buying. I like to buy nice writing instruments.

- Yay OFFTOP, you lazy bums