SB Nation User Blog: senor_k

A quick look at where teams are, and where Hamilton fits in.

senor_k — Wed, 06 May 2009 06:26:05 -0000

A quick look at where teams are, and where Hamilton fits in.

Guess who showed up before the game?

senor_k — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 08:17:26 -0000

Guess who showed up before the game?

Seed Sorting

senor_k — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 07:05:38 -0000

Tomorrow is going to be ridiculous.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. San Jose
2. Detroit
3. Vancouver (~~CAL~~)
4. Chicago
5. Calgary (~~VAN~~)
6. Columbus (~~ANA~~, STL)
7. Anaheim (CBJ, ~~STL~~)
8. St. Louis (~~CBJ~~, ANA)

3 and 5 seeds

If Vancouver gains one point in their final game, they lock up the Northwest Division and finish with a 3 seed, and Calgary is locked into a first-round series with the Blackhawks. (VAN-CHI-CAL)

If Vancouver loses in regulation, and the Flames win, then the Flames win the Northwest and the Canucks are headed to the Windy City. In this situation, both teams finish with 98 points, but the Flames win the first tie-breaker with 46 wins to Vancouver's 44. (CAL-CHI-VAN)

VAN @ COL, April 11, 12 noon PDT, Canucks win 1-0, OT

EDM @ CAL, April 11, 7 pm PDT, Flames win 4-1

6, 7, and 8 seeds

Columbus clinches sixth with one point in their final game. If that's the case, then seventh goes to Anaheim or St. Louis based on their final games. Right now they have the same number of points, so whoever does better on the weekend draws the Red Wings in the first round. Anaheim is guaranteed seventh in case of a tie, with 43 or 42 wins vs. 41 or 40 wins. (CBJ-ANA-STL; CBJ-STL-ANA)

But! If Columbus does not gain a point, it's wide open. St. Louis takes sixth with a win and a Ducks ~~loss or~~ OTL (STL-CBJ-ANA).

~~Anaheim takes sixth with a win and a Columbus loss. St. Louis then takes eighth if they don't win (ANA-CBJ-STL).~~

If Columbus loses, yet neither Anaheim nor St. Louis win, then sixth is in the hands of the BJ's, with seventh going to Anaheim (CBJ-ANA-STL), ~~unless the Ducks lose and the Blues get an overtime loss (CBJ-STL-ANA).~~

If all three teams finish with 92 points, i.e. Jackets lose, Ducks and Blues win, then the Ducks take sixth and the Blues finish seventh by virtue of their 4-1-1 regular season record against the Blue Jackets. (ANA-STL-CBJ)

MIN @ CBJ, April 11, 4 pm PDT, Jackets lose 6-3

ANA @ PHX, April 11, 5 pm PDT, Ducks lose 5-4, SO

STL @ COL, April 12, 2 pm PDT

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Boston
2. Washington
3. New Jersey
4. Philadelphia (~~CAR~~, PIT)
5. ~~Carolina~~ (PHI, PIT)
6. ~~Pittsburgh~~ (~~PHI~~, CAR)
7. NY Rangers (~~MTL~~)
8. Montreal (~~NYR~~)

Insanity. And it's only four games.

Flyers in fourth:

Beat Islanders, beat Rangers (rest of field is open)
Beat Islanders, OTL to Rangers (NYR 7th, MTL 8th.)
~~OTL to Islanders, beat Rangers (rest of field is open)~~
~~OTL to Islanders, OTL to Rangers, Hurricanes lose/OTL, Penguins lose/OTL (NYR 7th, MTL 8th, CAR/PIT in 5th on points, CAR has tiebreaker)~~
~~Lose to Islanders/Rangers, OTL to Islanders/Rangers, Hurricanes lose, Penguins lose (NYR 7th, MTL 8th, CAR 5th, PIT 6th)~~

Hurricanes in fourth:

~~Beat Devils, Flyers lose to Islanders/Rangers (PHI/PIT in 5th on points, PIT has tiebreaker, NYR/MTL in 7th on points, NYR has tiebreaker)~~
~~OTL to Devils, Flyers lose to Islanders/Rangers, Flyers OTL/lose to Islanders/Rangers, Penguins lose/OTL (same as above)~~
~~Lose to Devils, Flyers lose to Islanders and Rangers, Penguins lose (PIT 5th, PHI 6th, NYR 7th, MTL 8th)~~

Penguins in fourth:

~~Beat Canadiens, Hurricanes lose/OTL, Flyers lose/OTL to Islanders/Rangers, Flyers lose/OTL to Islanders/Rangers (CAR/PHI in 5th on points, CAR has tiebreaker, NYR/MTL in 7th on points, NYR has tiebreaker)~~
~~OTL to Canadiens, Hurricanes lose, Flyers lose/OTL to Islanders/Rangers, Flyers lose to Islanders/Rangers (same as above)~~
Beat Canadiens, Hurricanes lose, Flyers beat Islanders/Rangers, Flyers lose to Islanders/Rangers. (PIT-PHI-CAR-NYR-MTL)

Canadiens in seventh:

~~Beat Penguins, Rangers lose/OTL to Flyers (NYR in 8th, PIT in 6th, CAR/PHI in 4th on points, CAR has tiebreaker)~~
~~OTL to Penguins, Rangers lose to Flyers (NYR in 8th, CAR/PIT/PHI in 4th on points, CAR>PIT>PHI tiebreakers)~~

Rangers in seventh:

Beat Flyers (MTL in 8th, rest of field is open)
OTL to Flyers, Canadiens lose~~/OTL~~ to Penguins (MTL in 8th, CAR/PIT/PHI in 4th on points, CAR>PIT>PHI tiebreakers)
Lose to Flyers, Canadiens lose to Penguins (same as above)

CAR @ NJD, April 11, 10 am PDT, Canes lose 3-2

PHI @ NYI, April 11, 11 am PDT, Flyers win 3-2

PIT @ MTL, April 11, 4 pm PDT, Pens win 3-1

NYR @ PHI, April 12, 2 pm PDT

Updated with Saturday's games. The East is set (BOS-MTL, WAS-NYR, NJD-CAR, PHI/PIT), aside from who has home ice in the 4/5 battle between the Flyers and Penguins. The Penguins get it if the Flyers get no points on Sunday, but if the Flyers aren't trailing after sixty minutes of play, the series opens up on Broad Street.

In the West, three different series will be affected by one game tomorrow. If the Blues win, we'll see SJ-ANA, DET-CBJ, and VAN-STL. If they can't improve their goal differential by the end of the season, then get ready for SJ-STL, DET-ANA, and VAN-CBJ. CHI-CAL is guaranteed no matter the outcome tomorrow.

Final Game FinFest

senor_k — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 20:54:45 -0000

I've been kicking this idea around for a while: An FTF meetup before the last regular-season home game on Thursday night. With the Sharks' magic numbers at 3 and 6 (vs. Detroit and vs. Boston, respectively) it could possibly be the game that clinches the Sharks' first-ever Presidents Trophy.

What better way to witness that than by knocking back a few (or more) with the people you've been spending the season with? (And no, I don't mean Randy, Drew, Dan, and Jamie.)

I've mentioned this around these parts before, and a couple people showed interest, but I'd like to put this out there in a more concrete form than an off-the-cuff comment in a game thread. So: Who's down?

Thursday's game starts at 7:30, and I was thinking of getting started around 5, to allow for plenty of time to make the walk to the Tank and get settled in.

But, not being too familiar with downtown San Jose, I have no idea where a suitable venue is to be found. Anywhere where with easy access to adult beverages (or at least the absence of any strict prohibition) is preferred, and being within walking distance to the Arena is essential. Any ideas?

P.S.: Everyone is welcome, so bring whomever. As long as they're not Wings or Ducks fans.

UPDATE: Brittania Arms (map), 5 pm, Thursday, April 9, 2009. Be there. If you can't be there, be here. No absences excused without doctor's note.

Paul Lukas of Uni Watch interviews Steve Vucinich, A's equipment manager.

senor_k — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 23:41:14 -0000

Paul Lukas of Uni Watch interviews Steve Vucinich, A's equipment manager.

Corey Wimberly is a god amongst men, Stevie V. always has an extra pair of stirrups on hand, and the A's will be wearing 1939 Oaks throwbacks against the ~~Mariners~~ Rainiers in May and 1929 Philly A's throwbacks against the Chicago White Stockings in August.

Hockey's Magic Number, Part 2: Excel Strikes Back

senor_k — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 04:06:05 -0000

It turns out I lied to you last time. This didn't really get put on the backburner at all. Well maybe for a little while, but with a 7-hour break between classes on Mondays (9:30 to 11, then 6:30 to 10!!!), your mind starts wandering from your studies just a bit. So what's new? Extrapolation! Prediction! Algebra! More spreadsheets!

So come on in and join the party!

On Saturday, I just took the magic number formula that's been used in baseball for millenia and tinkered with it a bit so it played nice with hockey's point system. A quick refresher:

When MN(AB) goes below 1, then it is mathematically impossible for team B to finish ahead of team A in the standings. Every point gained by team A (2 for a win, one for an OTL) reduces the magic number, and every point lost by team B (2 for a loss, one for an OTL) reduces the magic number. It can only go down, and MN(AB) is not the same as MN(BA). The formula:

MagicNumber(AB) = 165 - Points(A) + Points(B) - (2 * Games Played(B))

It's quite a handy stat. But since it's based on the maximum points remaining for team B (i.e. they win every remaining game), team A's higher position is shown to be in jeopardy for most of the season. But who really thinks that the Blues, or the Thrashers, have any sort of a shot at the #1 seed? (If so, I'll give you a great deal on this bridge I have sitting around.)

So I thought; why not factor in the teams' points-per-game ratios? It's not a perfect solution, but with more than half the games played, I'd say we have a large enough sample to make a good evaluation of a team's capabilities. Suddenly not losing for a whole month doesn't happen very often, and it happens even less often to teams on the margin. We know who's good, and we know who isn't, and it's unlikely to change.

On the other hand, the Stars were awful at the beginning of the season. But like someone coming out of hypnosis cured of their ills ("You will wake up when you hear the magic words..."), they've taken hold of a solid #5 seed based on PPG, behind the division leaders and the Blackhawks, and they're creeping up on the Flames. Hell, they might even be neck-and-neck with the 'Hawks if it weren't for those early results dragging their averages down. So take all this with a grain of salt.

After trying to re-invent the wheel for a while in figuring this out, I took the easy approach. The Expected Magic Number is calculated by taking team B's PPG multiplied by 82, subtracting team A's current point total, and adding 1. In other words, how many more points does team A need to exceed the amount of points that team B is on pace to finish with? The equation:

ExpectedMagicNumber(AB) = (82 * PPG(B)) - Points(A) + 1

Simple, right? Like the true magic number, a win or an OTL for team A will bring the EMN closer to zero, and a loss won't change it. But since we're not setting the standard for team B at two points per game anymore, team B's results can make the EMN go up. For every game that B does better than their original PPG says they should, their new PPG will be higher, making their season pace higher, setting the bar higher for team A.

Tempering this, however, are the facts that individual games are worth less towards PPG as both games played and total points increase. Based on yesterday morning's standings, if the Sharks win their next game, their PPG increases by about 0.008; and if the Islanders win their next game their PPG increases by about 0.026 -- three times as much. How much does this change the EMN? Against the Bruins, the Devils only reclaim one point with a win, the mid-table teams in the East get about 1.5, and the Thrashers and Islanders get 1.95 and 2.1, respectively. So a bad team on a hot streak can hold their EMN steady, even if the real magic number is on a steady march down towards zero. Like I said, not perfect.

But we're only halfway through the story. Next time, we throw team A's PPG into the mix, and I'll take a look at the wild card playoff numbers. I know you can't wait!

Until then, have fun with this, updated with the current numbers:

via docs.google.com

Hockey's magic number

senor_k — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 08:55:35 -0000

Magic numbers are usually associated with baseball, and for good reason. A win is a win, and whoever has the most in each division at the end of the season goes to the playoffs (along with the wild card, of course). Same for football, but with two wild cards. Easy. Basketball is a little tougher, with what amounts to five wild cards in each conference, but an NBA game can only be either won or lost. The NHL, of course, adds a new wrinkle, with a point system set up in place to support the game's current practice of three possible outcomes. So how do we get the magic number to play nice with a point system and five wild cards? And should it be bothered with this early in the season?

Shorts answers: Math, and probably not. But let's go for it anyway!

As you all should know, in baseball a magic number is the total number of wins for team A and losses for team B, in any combination, for A to be guaranteed a better record than B. It's almost always used for playoff races, but it can be used to compare any two teams. In win/loss games, it is defined as the number of games in a season, minus the number of A's wins, minus B's losses, plus one. Here's the formula (see the Wikipedia article for more):

Magic Number(a) = Games - Wins(a) - Losses(b) - 1

Now, hockey uses points. Wins and losses alone won't tell the whole story, so we look at the point column and tweak the formula a bit. The number of games in a season isn't helpful, it's the number of points in a season that we want, so we multiply 82 by two. Team A's wins needs to be doubled as well, and we need to add in their overtime losses. Same goes for team B: double their losses, add their overtime losses. The one can be left alone. So, after a bit of simplification, we come up with this:

Magic Number(a) = 165 - Points(a) + Points(b) - (2 * Games Played(b))

It's far simpler than it looks, I swear. So how are the Sharks looking?

Still 15 wins, 15 Red Wings 60-minute losses, and an overtime loss on either side for the Sharks to get the number one seed. Heck, they're still 9 wins and 9 Blues losses from even guaranteeing that they won't finish last in the conference. So in conclusion, it's not too helpful at this point, but I figured I'd see how things looked.

I'll put it on the back burner for now, maybe revisit it at the end of next month?

P.S. A look at Boston's numbers in the East.

I'm not happy. (WARNING: CONTENTS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR HEALTH)

senor_k — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 04:42:02 -0000

From what I saw (heard) of the game tonight, they basically quit trying. That will NOT fly in the playoffs. Yes, it’s the regular season right now, but I’ve seen the exact same crap from this team over and over. Once they reach the top, once they start getting hyped, once they begin to see the wins far outnumber the losses, they stop trying.

I don’t remember who posted it, or where, but I recently saw someone put up a clip from "Miracle" in comparison to their team. You know the one, the team doing gassers (or whatever they’re called in hockey) after a loss, the coach yelling "You don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone." Even though I feel that pound for pound and player by player the Sharks are the most talented team in the NHL, that quote still applies. Talent doesn’t win the Stanley Cup, it doesn’t even win in the second round.

Not just in this game, but for the last couple weeks, they look like they’re playing like they deserve the win; that they just have to show up to get their points. It’s worked a few times, sure, but I guarantee it won’t work anymore. They’re not untouchable anymore. They are, once again, the Sharks that can be outhustled, the Sharks that can be pushed around, the Sharks that can be beat. Every other team now knows how to beat the Sharks: work harder than they do. Those other teams know they can't rely solely on talent, and they’ve just been showed (again) that the Sharks don’t.

It’s an uphill battle now. I think that every game from now on will be the hardest game of the season. Even if they win the next 20 games by 10 goals each, that 21st team will still play like they have a shot, because they will have a shot. All the Sharks can do now is come out every game ready to play, ready to fight, ready to hustle, and to not take any game, any point, any goal, any shift for granted. Opponents will now be looking for any sign of weakness, and if they find one, they will win. I don’t care how hokey or sappy all this sounds, I truly believe it.

I pray to the Hockey Gods that tonight was just a fluke, that I’ve been seriously misinterpreting the past few weeks. I pray that at some point in this season that I’ll look at this and laugh at how idiotic this all sounds, that I was making a huge deal out of nothing. But right now, I just hope that McLellan knows how to do what Ron Wilson couldn’t: Get this team to stop pussyfooting around; to stop bending over at the first sign of trouble; to get this team to understand that they don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone, and to FUCKING PLAY LIKE IT.

If tonight proved that they can lose, Saturday and Tuesday will show if they can be beaten.

P.S.: I might regret posting this later. Whatever.

Tickets? Tickets?

senor_k — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 03:10:03 -0000

Anyone happen to have three or four tickets to Saturday's or Tuesday's games (12/20 or 12/23)? Ticketmaster Marketplace's lowest prices for three seats together are $103 and $333 each respectively, and StubHub isn't looking any better. That usually goes down as it gets closer to the game, but I'd rather not have to take that chance.

I'm going crazy over this, bcause my buddy's back on leave from the Navy and these are the only two games he can make, but those prices are way too high.

So, anyone selling? Anyone have any tips for scoring tickets even close to face value?

Claude Lemieux looks like the lovechild of Uncle Fester and Emperor Palpatine.

senor_k — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 09:31:08 -0000

Claude Lemieux looks like the lovechild of Uncle Fester and Emperor Palpatine.