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Pack 10: Week 1 – Saints @ Packers
New weekly feature where I post 10 of my thoughts about the Packer game. Enjoy.
Hey, Packers are going to win the Super Bowl
I know some think this is bad luck, but the Packers are going to win the Super Bowl this weekend. No disrespect to the Steelers, but the Packers are in perfect position to bring the Lombardi Trophy back to Green Bay. Let me explain.
Before the postseason started, I told anyone who would listen to me that there was only one team that really worried me in the playoffs. The Chicago Bears. I was delighted when Minnesota beat Philadelphia and removed the scenario of Green Bay traveling to Soldier Field in the first week of the playoffs. I don’t necessarily believe that Chicago was the best team in the NFL (that distinction clearly belonged to New England), but they were the worst match up for the Packers. The Cover 2, the way they can force turnovers, the superior special teams, Forte, Peppers, their ability to win close games scared me. Luckily, the Packers survived two weeks ago and now play Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl.
Now, why am I so confident about the Packers on Sunday?
about 1 year ago
shaftr
1 comment
1 recs
Packers @ Lions: What went wrong for Green Bay?
Fox 47 knew something that I didn’t.
Due to the blizzard in Madison, Fox 47 was unavailable until late in the 2nd quarter of the Packers/Lions game. I followed the game by using a combination of NFL.com, Twitter and a constantly buffering stream of the game. Once service was finally restored, I was not happy with what I ended up viewing.
I picked up the television broadcast just as Matt Flynn was coming in to replace a concussed Aaron Rodgers. At halftime, it was 0-0 and I could hear Admiral Ackbar in my head yelling, "It’s a trap!
Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre compared after first 41 starts
It’s halftime of the fourth Rodgers/Favre matchup and I thought I’d see where Rodgers is at compared to Favre at this point in his career. Previous entires received a lot of comments with some people upset that I didn’t include wins. Well, Rodgers and Favre each had 23 wins at this point. So, what do Favre apologists have to say now? I’m beating a dead horse here, but clearly Ted Thompson did the right thing.
Brett Favre vs Aaron Rodgers: After 32 Games as a Starter
Last year, I compared Favre & Rodgers after 20 games as a Starter. With Favre back with the Vikings, I compare Rodgers' first 32 starts with Favre's first 32 and his 32 starts since leaving the Packers.
over 1 year ago
shaftr
0 comments
3 recs
What is happening to Bobby Jenks?
The biggest problem seems to be that Jenks has been unable to strike out any batters in the above meltdowns. He has only had control issues in one of the games. It appears that Jenks has been very hittable in this appearances and the opposition has made him pay by going back up the middle with hits to center field.
It's time to get excited about Alex Rios
At the meetup, LT told me that I need to contribue more. He is right. Although he was smiling when he told me that, part of me is frightened of him and I decided I should contribute right away.
On Saturday, Alex Rios stole a base and hit another home run. That brings his season totals (thru 40 games) to 8 home runs and 13 stolen bases. So far, 2010 has been a stark contrast to the 2009 version of Rios that White Sox fans saw. In 41 games for Chicago last year, Rios hit 3 home runs and had 5 stolen bases. He also had an OPS of .530. This year? .912 OPS.
Obviously, most of you are already aware of this. You are also aware of the fact that he plays Center Field and is very good at it. All of these are reasons to get excited about Alex Rios. Need a reason to get even more excited? I can't think of the last White Sox player with the skill set of Rios.
I know projections can be silly, but Rios is on pace for 32 home runs and 52 stolen bases. I can't remember ever watching a player in this franchise that has that combination of Power and Speed, can you? Luckily, we have Bill James' Power/Speed formula that we can use to compare Rios 2010 projections to previous White Sox players.
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White Sox Preview: Rule of Thirds
Just a quick preview I wrote up on my site. It's nothing none of you don't already know, but I thought I'd post it for those interested.
Defensive Player of the Year: Woodson vs Revis
I take a look at Charles Woodson and Darrelle Revis this season. I analyze their counting stats, coverage, run defense and ability to rush the quarterback.
Brett Favre vs Aaron Rodgers thru 20 starts
I compared Brett Favre's first 20 starts (1992 - 1993) to Aaron Rodgers' first 20 starts (2008 - 2009).
How excited should you be about Aaron Rodgers?
The 2009 preseason just ended and Aaron Rodgers had a 147.9 QB Rating. He threw for 465 yards with 6 TDs and 0 interceptions. Incredible numbers, but how much stock should we put in it? It’s just preseason, right? Should Packer fans be excited?
White Sox and Leadoff or "Why Podsednik Seems So Good"
Finding a leadoff man is difficult. It's not a position, but it is a spot in the lineup that requires a certain set of skills. The ability to get on base and run are the two most important skills of a leadoff man. The 2009 Chicago White Sox have had an interesting group of guys try their hand at lead off.
Dewayne Wise
Origins: Before he was the man behind preserving a perfect game, Wise was the Opening Day leadoff hitter for the White Sox. That experiment lasted two games. Coming in to the season Wise was a 31 year old journeyman outfielder who played pretty well late last year for the White Sox. He didn't exactly earn the lead off position, but as you will see, there weren't that many other options.
Stats: .193 BA .235 OBP .312 SLUG 40 OPS+
Currently: Defensive replacement for White Sox.
Chris Getz
Origins: Getz won the starting 2nd baseman job out of Spring Training. He profiled as a light hitting 2nd baseman with a good eye. He primarily hit lead off for Chicago during April & May, but eventually was replaced by Scott Podsednik.
Stats: .266 BA .323 OBP .369 SLUG 79 OPS+
Currently:He lost his spot on top of the lineup, but has continued starting at 2nd as a Rookie.
34 comments
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No one runs on Mark Buehrle
While watching the White Sox / Orioles game tonight, I was pleased to see John Danks pick Brian Roberts off at first. I've noticed that Danks has improved at keeping runners at first. In his rookie season, baserunners were 91% successful (with 2 pick offs) and last year they were only 74% successful (with 6 pick offs). That's nothing compared to Mark Buehrle.
A baserunner against Mark Buehrle has a better chance of being picked off then actually swiping a base. In his career, he has picked off 61 baserunners and only given up 36 stolen bases. That's incredible. Even outside of Buehrle's pick off move, only 41% of baserunners have been successful stealing. The league average is 73%.
I started wondering, what kind of an effect does this have? I'm going to break it down by adjusting WHIP. WHIP stands for Walks + Hits per Inning PItched. Essentially, WHIP looks at the number of baserunners per Inning (excluding errors). Buehrle's pitched 1865.2 Innings, given up 1937 hits and 431 walks, so a 1.269 WHIP.
Among active players, a 1.269 career WHIP is the 21st among active players . That feels about right, he isn't an Elite pitcher, but he is still very good. Now, what if we remove his Pickoffs (61) from his Walk+Hit total? That ends up with a WHIP of 1.236.
Does this make any difference? That adjustment moves him up to 15th. Now to be fair, I didn't adjust all of the players in baseball, just Buehrle. Still, the guy he passes up (Brandon Webb) only has 8 career pickoffs, so Buehrle benefits from a change like this more than any other MLB pitcher.
Obviously, adjusting the WHIP like I did isn't really a helpful exercise. WHIP does a good job of measuring baserunners per inning, so no adjustment is really needed. My point is that while Buehrle might lack the strikeout numbers of the elite pitchers, there is something to say about a guy who has pitched 8 straight seasons of 200+ IP and is excellent at neutralizing the opponents running game.
Note: Repost from rmlumley.com.
almost 3 years ago
shaftr
16 comments
2 recs
The Fall of Paul Konerko
November 30, 2005: Paul Konerko signs with the Chicago White Sox (Age 29)
- 5 years / $60 Million
He was coming off a 136 OPS+ season along with his World Series Game 2 heroics.
Age 30: 134 OPS+
Age 31: 116 OPS+
Age 32: 78 OPS+
Is there a contemporary player we can compare Konerko to?
December 15, 2004: Richie Sexson signs with the Seattle Mariners (Age 29)
- 4 years / $50 million
He was coming off an injury-shortened 126 OPS+ campaign, but the year prior put up a 140 OPS+.
Age 30: 144 OPS+
Age 31: 117 OPS+
Age 32: 84 OPS+
Age 33: 88 OPS+ (Released)
So, is this another example of old player skills? Bill James defines the old player skill set as: power, walks, low average, lack of speed. Konerko definitely fits the bill on three of those, but low average is a little trickier. His BA has ranged from as low as .234 and as high as .313. He's a lifetime .277 hitter. Sexson appears to fit the old player skills more so than Konerko since his lifetime BA is .261 and there isn't as much variance in his range of season long BAs.
I've looked at Sexson's and Konerko's Pitch Data and nothing really stands out to me. Konerko's Contact % is down this season, but everything else looks in line. (Note, someone else might see something I missed).
The one wild card to all of this is consistency. I alluded to this above in regards to Batting Average. In Sexson's career (before his drop-off), he was consistently above 120 OPS+. With Konerko, we've gone thru this before with his 03 season. Much like this season, he was dismal with a .234/.305/.399 line. He rebounded with 4 good seasons.
So, will Konerko rebound and fulfill his last 2 years of his contract with 120 OPS+ seasons (and perhaps even rebound in time this year), or will he suffer a similar fate as Sexson?
Clayton Richard at Futures Game
White Sox left-hander Clayton Richard got the start for the U.S. team. A big 6'6", 240-pound southpaw, Richard lives on his sinker. It's a tough pitch to hit hard, especially coming from a downhill plane, and it also allows Richard to induce plenty of ground balls. That ground ball tendency was evident when Richard allowed three grounders in the first, though one of them was a single. The World team eventually scored a run in the inning thanks to an error by shortstop Jason Donald, a stolen base by Elvis Andrus, and a fielder's choice by Pablo Sandoval.
Richard was posting a combined 2.44 ERA and 82/20 K/BB in 121 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A before the game. He hit 91 MPH with his sinker at one point in the contest, but he was more consistently in the upper 80s to 90. He's already 24 and doesn't have much upside, but if Richard can keep limiting walks and homers, he could be a No. 3 starter if everything breaks right. He's more likely to be an innings eater, but he's a solid, underrated prospect.
Baseball Boss
I've been playing a lot of lately. The game has cards from 1907 & 2007 and you are randomly given 40 cards to start. You create a 25 man roster and slowly build your team with your winnings (by using the auction system or buying more packs).
PS> Matt Thornton is dominant on my team.
Here is a picture of what MLB.tv looks like on my TV. I have it running out of my MacBook (DVI>VGA) and into my Vizio HD TV. This is from MLB Mosaic at it's highest quality.
Offday Fun - Favorite Player Roster
I thought we need some offday funs (since right now gamedays aren't even fun).
Anyways, list your starting line up of active players consisting only of your favorite players (not necessarily the best).
Mine:
C - Brian McCann: underrated b/c of Mauer
1b - Julio Franco: This was tough, but whenever I see him at this age I am amused.
2b - Ray Durham: He was one of my favorites with the White Sox, and I didn't know who else to pick.
SS - Jose Reyes: Easy.
3b - Joe Crede: Easier.
LF - Carl Crawford: I'd be fine if the White Sox overpayed for him.
CF - Bill Hall: God.
RF - Vladimir Guerrero: I was a bigger fan when he was with the Expos and still had his speed.
SP - Pedro Martinez: Truly dominating and I really hope he can regain that form.
Offday Fun
A thoroughly honest game-show host has placed a car behind one of three doors. There is a goat behind each of the other doors. You have no prior knowledge that allows you to distinguish among the doors. "First you point toward a door," he says. "Then I'll open one of the other doors to reveal a goat. After I've shown you the goat, you make your final choice whether to stick with your initial choice of doors, or to switch to the remaining door. You win whatever is behind the door." You begin by pointing to door number 1. The host shows you that door number 3 has a goat.
Do the player's chances of getting the car increase by switching to Door 2?
NOTE: Explanation - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem/
("Do you see what happens, Larry?")
Offseason: Prince vs Bowie
Introduction
Since there is very little baseball news, I thought I'd start a discussion. Lets compare Prince to David Bowie to find out which artist is more valuable. I will break it down to try to make it as objective as possible.
Tale of the Tape
David Bowie
1967 - Present
Studio Albums: 25
Albums Sold Worldwide: 140 Million +
US #1 Singles: 2 (5 in the UK)
Best Selling Album: Lets Dance
Musical Instruments: 13
4-5 Star Albums: 10 (5 Five Star Albums)
Prince
1978 - Present
Studio Albums: 25
Albums Sold Worldwide: 100 Million +
US #1 Singles: 7
Best Selling Album: Purple Rain
Musical Instruments: Over 24
4-5 Star Albums: 9 (4 Five Star Albums)
Analysis
As you can see, it is very close. Bowie has three different dominate periods (70-73, 76-77 & 80-83). Whereas Prince has one longer era of dominance (80-87), including the best peak year of the two (1984). Bowie has, for the most part, been consistently solid both critically and commercially for his entire career with 3 notable peaks. Whereas, the majority of Prince's critical/commercial success occured in an 8 year span.
Complicating even more so, is the intangibles of each artist. Bowie has a better filmography, even though Prince has the biggest Box Office hit. Also, Prince was a joke for about a decade due to his name change to the symbol, then back to Prince.
Finally, they both probably took illegal substances that may or may not have affected the outcome of their work. While these substances are illegal, the music industry has yet to have a rule outlawing their use.
So, who is more valuable? If we agree that their influence is similiar, do you take the peak or consistent career?
Shy Guy
My friend and I play a lot of Mario Superstar Baseball on Gamecube, so this is a story of last night's game.
It was a day game at Mario Stadium between Donkey Kong's team (my friend) and Diddy Kong's team (myself). On the mound for Donkey Kong was the best pitcher in the game, Waluigi. Diddy Kong countered with King Boo. Through 8 innings, Donkey Kong was up 5-1 boosted by Bowser's 2 solo shots. The only run for Diddy Kong was a solo shot by King Boo. Donkey Kong was playing good defense, specifically Birdo (3b) & Magikoopa (SS) and was able to keep any more runs from scoring.
In the bottom of the 9th, Waluigi was going for the Complete Game. Before Donkey Kong knew it, there were runners on 3rd and 2nd with Luigi up. A bases clearing Double cut the lead to 5-3. Shortly after that Luigi came around to score and Diddy Kong scored another run to make it 5-5.
With 2 outs, down by 1 and with King Boo at 2nd, Waluigi hit a struggling Hammer Bro to bring up Shy Guy. Now, Shy Guy is a smooth fielding 3rd baseman, so he has earned the nickname, Joe Crede. Well, Shy Guy lined a shot over the 3rd baseman and King Boo came around to score.
Game Over. 6-5 Diddy Kong.
MVP: Shy Guy
So, anything can happy especially with Shy Guy (Joe Crede).
http://www.mariomonsters.com/shyguy/Shyguy01.jpg
Another reason to love Joe Crede
from The Birmingham News
`Thanks, Crony'
Thursday, July 06, 2006
DOUG SEGREST
News staff writer
The UPS package, thrown in with the monthly paychecks, was addressed simply.
It had Chris Cron's name as recipient. The return address only had a name - "Joe Crede."
It arrived July 1 at Mobile's Hank Aaron Stadium as part of a box load of correspondence needing the attention of Cron, the Birmingham Barons manager.
"I'm a golfer and I knew from the shape of the package that it was a sleeve of Callaway golf balls," Cron said. "So I set it aside on my desk while I went about my work."
As Cron began sorting paychecks for distribution to his team, his curiosity got the best of him. What had Crede, the Chicago White Sox's star third baseman sent him and why?
So he opened the package to find a walnut case with the Sox's World Championship logo embossed on the top above Crede's name.
Inside the case? Not a single solitary golf ball.
Instead, there was a sparkling, Tourneau watch, with 10 diamonds on each side of a black face featuring another Chicago World Series logo in silver.
On the inside of the watch was an inscription: "Thanks, Crony - Joe."
Ever seen a 42-year-old man weep?
"I was shaking like crazy, I could barely open it. Then my eyes teared and I must have cried for five minutes," Cron said. "You get to a point in your life or your career where sometimes things aren't the way you want them to be and you're away from your family all the time.
"Then you open something like this ... it touches you immediately. It touches you deeply."
Cron and other managers in the White Sox organization received World Series rings following Chicago's 2005 sweep of the Houston Astros.
"I'm grateful for that. It was the organization's way of saying thank you. But this watch means more, because it's from an individual."
Cron wasn't the only one to enjoy Crede's goodwill. The Sox star also bought a championship watch for another former Barons skipper, Nick Capra.
"This was a memento from me to them," Crede said Wednesday before Chicago played Baltimore. ``It was my way of saying thank you for everything they've done for me."
A fifth-round draft choice in 1996, Crede was going nowhere fast in Low-A Hickory. He struggled around the Mendoza line for much of the first half of his first full season and wondered how quickly he would need to find a real job.
"I didn't think I was good enough to play at that level, much less in the big leagues. I figured I'd play in the minors a year or two, then go somewhere else. But Crony kept putting me in the lineup every day," Crede said.
"It was such a huge step for me, from high school to the minors, and he taught me so much - not just about baseball, but life. He took me under his wing."
Cron said if Crede didn't consider himself special, everyone else did.
Sure, he had talent, but he also had a demeanor, mixing humility with maturity beyond his years.
And he became a favorite of Cron's because of the way he played ball between the lines and the way he treated Cron's kids away from the field. If Cron's young kids came to the ballpark, Crede willingly provided the entertainment.
The player and mentor moved up the ladder together - to High-A Winston-Salem in'98 and to Double-A Birmingham in '99, where Crede firmly established himself as a big-league prospect.
A year later, with Cron managing Triple-A Colorado Springs, Crede played for Capra before a late-season call-up and his White Sox debut.
"Cappy made it very fun to play for him," Crede said. "He kept the clubhouse loose and his players relaxed."
The championship watch won't stay in Cron's Hoover Metropolitan Stadium office. He's taking it home to Phoenix for an all-star break vacation today to share with his wife, Linda, and his three children.
"This is what kind of guy Joe is ..." Cron said, reminiscing about the World Series. Cron flew his entire family to Chicago, just before the opener at U.S. Cellular Field.
"We're walking into the hotel to check in and there's Joe Crede coming out of the elevator, headed to the ballpark," Cron said. "He spends 15 minutes talking to us, like he doesn't have a care in the world, and poses for a bunch of pictures with my kids.
"I've had a lot of good kids play for me, but Joe Crede's in a different ballpark altogether. When I saw the gift he sent, I would have gotten the same satisfaction if he'd sent me a Hallmark card.
"But that gift thought brought me back," he added, looking at the watch while dwelling on the sentiment. "This is the reason I do what I try to do in this game."
Mr. 400
Tonight, Pablo Ozuna went 3/5 with 2 runs and rose his average to .438. He also made a nice defensive play in the 9th inning. I know his .400 BA will not last, but I've been saying this for a long time now. I'm glad Ozzie continues to find ways to get him in the game.
Jose Contreras struck out a career high 13 batters, but still was roughed up for 5 runs. Many people, myself included, look at K/9 IP as a way to evaluate pitchers, but tonight Jose showed us why it isn't always the best indicator. Strikeouts normally take more pitches than any other out, resulting in higher pitch counts, less innings pitched and more work for the bullpen. In that regard, not having a true strikeout ace benefits the White Sox.
Speaking of defense, Cincinnati helped the White Sox a lot in this win. In the 6th inning, Paul Konerko would have been thrown out at the plate had Ryan Freel not foolishly cut the ball off. Also, a botched Double Play in the 9th resulted in the 2 go ahead runs for Chicago. Both balls were hit by Joe Crede, proving the magic that his bat possesses.
Finally, outside of Bobby Jenks shaky 9th inning, the bullpen for the White Sox continues to improve. I continue to be amazed at the development of Matt Thornton. His progress made Javier Lopez expendable.
"I was gonna let the Reds score more but then I got high"
After a 4-0 lead, Freddy Garcia had all of us calling for his heads in the first inning when he gave back 3 runs. He was throwing junk and couldn't hit 90 mph on his fastball. After that he settled down and pitched an effective game. He wasn't perfect by any means, and he got away with some hangers, but he seemed to attack the zone and increase the velocity on his fastball.
I have to admit that I've been too rough on Garcia this season, while making excuses for Jon Garland. A look at their comps (Garcia & Garland), and it appears that Garcia is having the same problem as Garland. His K & BB rates have remained the same, but he is giving up more flyballs, resulting in more HRs and less ground balls.
Some Notes:
BA Comp
Brian Anderson
As of 6/7:
.162 BA / .243 OBP / .299 SLUG / .542 OPS
JJ Hardy
Pre ASB 05:
.187 BA / .293 OBP / .267 SLUG / .560 OPS
Post ASB 05:
.308 BA / .363 OBP / .503 SLUG / .866 OPS
Both were top prospects in the organization who struggled with the bat. They also both showed value with their gloves. Perhaps BA will have a 2nd half similiar to Hardy's 05.
Baseball Gloves
Since we are all fans of the game, I imagine each of us own and/or have owned baseball gloves. I am curious what "Signatures" have been on your gloves. My first glove that I used in Little League had a "Graig Nettles" signature. My girlfriend now uses that glove since I outgrew it a long, long time ago. The glove I've used since has a "Jose Conseco" signature. Also, my friend has a "Fernando Valenzuela" signature on it. I was wondering if anyone can beat a Conseco or Valenzuela glove?
Boone Logan
I was wondering if John knows anything about Boone Logan. Nothing special until last year when he was switched from a starter into a reliever and posted the following line in Great Falls (Rk):
35.1 IP / 29 Ks / 4 BB / 1 HR
Not only did his switch to the bullpen help, but he started using a 3/4 delivery.
He impressed Chicago in minor league camp this Spring when he K'd Mackowiak and Thome. He was invited to the Major League camp and has been scoreless in 4 games.
It looks like he might end up making the team Opening Day as one of the arms in the bullpen. I was skeptical (and to a certain degree, still am), but I saw him pitch yesterday and he did look impressive. He throws nothing but strikes and gives up nothing but groundballs. He also was hitting 93 with his fastball.
Any thoughts on Logan? How rare is it for a guy to go from nobody in Rookie ball to Opening day roster?
OT: I'm Tired of these Snakes
I don't know if you guys are aware of this, but Samuel L Jackson has a movie coming out this summer titled: Snakes on a Plane. The title tells you all that you need to know. The story is that Jackson took the role without reading the script because the title amused him so much. Half way through production it was suggested to change the title and Jackson protested.
Here is the link to the trailer this incredible film.
Great Single Seasons
This is just an idea for discussion. Post some Single Season accomplishments that impress you. They can be obvious (Ruth) to fluke seasons.
I was just looking at Eric Davis in 1987.
In 129 games (474 at bats), he he posted the following:
120 runs
37 home runs
100 rbis
50 sb (6 cs)
.293 BA
.399 OBP
.593 SLUG
.991 OPS
155 OPS+
Gold Glove
Own the World Series
http://www.newvideo.com/productdetail.html?productid=NV-AAE-74722
Chicago White Sox, The: 2005 World Series Collector's Edition
With unprecedented prowess, stellar pitching, heroic and timely hitting, the selfless, team-oriented players of the Chicago White Sox conquered the Baseball World. After battling through three rounds of competition, the White Sox claimed the World Series championship for the first time since 1917.
The White Sox were the first team to clinch all three rounds with road victories. This spectacular one-of-a-kind DVD collection includes the complete game broadcasts of the final road wins against the Boston Red Sox, the Los Angeles Angels, and all four dramatic victories over the Houston Astros--more than 18 houyrs of pure "Pale Hose" pleasure is packed into this remarkable DVD collection.
Intensify your viewing with Sleeve Stats: the perfect companion to the ultimate baseball DVD experience, offering official stats, trivia, and game summaries right on each DVD's package.
Now, all the timeless moments of relief, pride, and ecstasy of the historic 2005 postseason that came to a glorious conclusion are preserved for you in this exceptional set.
2005 World Series Clubhouse Victory Celebration;Official Trophy Presentation; Parade Footage and Player Speeches; Exclusive Interviews: Ozzie Guillen, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Scott Podsenik, A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Buehrle, Aaron Rowand, Don Cooper, Kenny Williams; Special Game Footage: White Sox Clinching American League Central Division; Final three outs of the 2005 World Series
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I'm upset it won't include all the ALCS. With that said, it comes out March 28 and is under $50 at Amazon.
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