SB Nation User Blog: shaftr

Brett Favre vs Aaron Rodgers thru 20 starts

shaftr — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 05:47:41 -0000

Brett Favre vs Aaron Rodgers thru 20 starts

I compared Brett Favre's first 20 starts (1992 - 1993) to Aaron Rodgers' first 20 starts (2008 - 2009).

How excited should you be about Aaron Rodgers?

shaftr — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 15:23:44 -0000

How excited should you be about Aaron Rodgers?

The 2009 preseason just ended and Aaron Rodgers had a 147.9 QB Rating. He threw for 465 yards with 6 TDs and 0 interceptions. Incredible numbers, but how much stock should we put in it? It’s just preseason, right? Should Packer fans be excited?

White Sox and Leadoff or "Why Podsednik Seems So Good"

shaftr — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 00:04:49 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Browse more photos »

Finding a leadoff man is difficult. It's not a position, but it is a spot in the lineup that requires a certain set of skills. The ability to get on base and run are the two most important skills of a leadoff man. The 2009 Chicago White Sox have had an interesting group of guys try their hand at lead off.

Dewayne Wise

Origins: Before he was the man behind preserving a perfect game, Wise was the Opening Day leadoff hitter for the White Sox. That experiment lasted two games. Coming in to the season Wise was a 31 year old journeyman outfielder who played pretty well late last year for the White Sox. He didn't exactly earn the lead off position, but as you will see, there weren't that many other options.

Stats: .193 BA .235 OBP .312 SLUG 40 OPS+

Currently: Defensive replacement for White Sox.

Chris Getz

Origins: Getz won the starting 2nd baseman job out of Spring Training. He profiled as a light hitting 2nd baseman with a good eye. He primarily hit lead off for Chicago during April & May, but eventually was replaced by Scott Podsednik.

Stats: .266 BA .323 OBP .369 SLUG 79 OPS+

Currently:He lost his spot on top of the lineup, but has continued starting at 2nd as a Rookie.

Brent Lillibridge

Origins: Lillibridge joined the White Sox as part of the Javier Vazquez trade to Atlanta. He is a former top prospect that hasn't panned out due to his lack of hitting ability.

Stats: .162 BA .260 OBP .191 SLUG 20 OPS+

Currently: He was just called up to Chicago after Alexei Ramirez was hurt and the Peavy trade opened up a Roster spot. I don't believe he left the airport, since he was sent right back down before appearing in a game.

Jerry Owens

Origins: Jerry Owens was a former football player who has one skill: speed. The problem is you can't steal first base and he wasn't able to find other ways to get to first. He only lead off once.

Stats: .083 BA .267 OBP .083 SLUG -3 OPS+

Currently: He was out of Options so after being sent down, he was claimed by the Mariners. He is currently stealing bases in AAA.

Brian Anderson

Origins: Anderson is a former top prospect who has never lived up to his potential. He wasn't able to win the job in Spring Training over Dewayne Wise and wasn't able to produce after Wise lost the job in the regular season. He only hit lead off once, the game after the Owens attempt.

Stats: .238 BA .322 OBP .319 SLUG 67 OPS+

Currently: He is playing in the Boston Red Sox Organization on their AAA affiliate. He asked to be traded after he was sent down, so the White Sox traded him for Mark Kotsay.

Jayson Nix

Origins: The White Sox signed Nix in the Offseason. He was previously a former first round draft pick for Colorado. He's only lead off 5 times, in various spot starts during the season. He was in a competition with Getz for 2nd during Spring Training, but now he is a super-sub.

Stats: .225 BA .294 OBP .442 SLUG 87 OPS+

Currently: He is playing in the Infield during off days for the starters and has been a nice bench player. He has brought a solid glove and some good pop to the White Sox.

Scott Podsednik

Origins: A former World Series hero for the White Sox, Podsednik wasn't with an organization when the Season started. After trying out the above, Chicago signed him and he eventually became their leadoff man.

Stats: .298 BA .354 OBP .387 SLUG 92 OPS+

Currently: He continues to be productive in the leadoff spot for Chicago. He can still get infield hits, but he is a liability in the field.

Mark Kotsay

Origins: Former solid regular for the Oakland As, Kotsay bounced around to Atlanta and Boston. He started the season as a reserve for Boston but was demoted. He was acquired by Chicago for Brian Anderson.

Stats: .221 BA .253 OBP .279 SLUG 36 OPS+

Currently: He was just acquired but has started leadoff one time already. He'll likely be a bat off the bench and even though he doesn't have a hit for the White Sox yet, he has been making good contact.

That is quite a group of players listed above. If you gave me that list before the season started, I would have assumed Chicago was at the bottom of the AL Central. Podsednik's 92 OPS+ isn't amazing, but it is a lot better than any of the above could provide. It's also surprising of all the players listed above, it was a washed out veteran off the street that would be the most productive. If Chicago makes the playoffs this year, Podsednik might be more of a hero then he was in 2005.

This is a repost from rmlumley.com. Follow shaftr on Twitter @rmlumley.

No one runs on Mark Buehrle

shaftr — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 02:22:18 -0000

No one runs on Mark Buehrle

While watching the White Sox / Orioles game tonight, I was pleased to see John Danks pick Brian Roberts off at first. I've noticed that Danks has improved at keeping runners at first. In his rookie season, baserunners were 91% successful (with 2 pick offs) and last year they were only 74% successful (with 6 pick offs). That's nothing compared to Mark Buehrle.

A baserunner against Mark Buehrle has a better chance of being picked off then actually swiping a base. In his career, he has picked off 61 baserunners and only given up 36 stolen bases. That's incredible. Even outside of Buehrle's pick off move, only 41% of baserunners have been successful stealing. The league average is 73%.

I started wondering, what kind of an effect does this have? I'm going to break it down by adjusting WHIP. WHIP stands for Walks + Hits per Inning PItched. Essentially, WHIP looks at the number of baserunners per Inning (excluding errors). Buehrle's pitched 1865.2 Innings, given up 1937 hits and 431 walks, so a 1.269 WHIP.

Among active players, a 1.269 career WHIP is the 21st among active players . That feels about right, he isn't an Elite pitcher, but he is still very good. Now, what if we remove his Pickoffs (61) from his Walk+Hit total? That ends up with a WHIP of 1.236.

Does this make any difference? That adjustment moves him up to 15th. Now to be fair, I didn't adjust all of the players in baseball, just Buehrle. Still, the guy he passes up (Brandon Webb) only has 8 career pickoffs, so Buehrle benefits from a change like this more than any other MLB pitcher.

Obviously, adjusting the WHIP like I did isn't really a helpful exercise. WHIP does a good job of measuring baserunners per inning, so no adjustment is really needed. My point is that while Buehrle might lack the strikeout numbers of the elite pitchers, there is something to say about a guy who has pitched 8 straight seasons of 200+ IP and is excellent at neutralizing the opponents running game.

Note: Repost from rmlumley.com.

The Fall of Paul Konerko

shaftr — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 02:16:11 -0000

November 30, 2005: Paul Konerko signs with the Chicago White Sox (Age 29)
- 5 years / $60 Million

He was coming off a 136 OPS+ season along with his World Series Game 2 heroics.

Age 30: 134 OPS+
Age 31: 116 OPS+
Age 32: 78 OPS+

Is there a contemporary player we can compare Konerko to?

December 15, 2004: Richie Sexson signs with the Seattle Mariners (Age 29)
- 4 years / $50 million

He was coming off an injury-shortened 126 OPS+ campaign, but the year prior put up a 140 OPS+.

Age 30: 144 OPS+
Age 31: 117 OPS+
Age 32: 84 OPS+
Age 33: 88 OPS+ (Released)

So, is this another example of old player skills? Bill James defines the old player skill set as: power, walks, low average, lack of speed. Konerko definitely fits the bill on three of those, but low average is a little trickier. His BA has ranged from as low as .234 and as high as .313. He's a lifetime .277 hitter. Sexson appears to fit the old player skills more so than Konerko since his lifetime BA is .261 and there isn't as much variance in his range of season long BAs.

I've looked at Sexson's and Konerko's Pitch Data and nothing really stands out to me. Konerko's Contact % is down this season, but everything else looks in line. (Note, someone else might see something I missed).

The one wild card to all of this is consistency. I alluded to this above in regards to Batting Average. In Sexson's career (before his drop-off), he was consistently above 120 OPS+. With Konerko, we've gone thru this before with his 03 season. Much like this season, he was dismal with a .234/.305/.399 line. He rebounded with 4 good seasons.

So, will Konerko rebound and fulfill his last 2 years of his contract with 120 OPS+ seasons (and perhaps even rebound in time this year), or will he suffer a similar fate as Sexson?

Clayton Richard at Futures Game

shaftr — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 05:14:25 -0000

Clayton Richard at Futures Game

White Sox left-hander Clayton Richard got the start for the U.S. team. A big 6'6", 240-pound southpaw, Richard lives on his sinker. It's a tough pitch to hit hard, especially coming from a downhill plane, and it also allows Richard to induce plenty of ground balls. That ground ball tendency was evident when Richard allowed three grounders in the first, though one of them was a single. The World team eventually scored a run in the inning thanks to an error by shortstop Jason Donald, a stolen base by Elvis Andrus, and a fielder's choice by Pablo Sandoval.

Richard was posting a combined 2.44 ERA and 82/20 K/BB in 121 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A before the game. He hit 91 MPH with his sinker at one point in the contest, but he was more consistently in the upper 80s to 90. He's already 24 and doesn't have much upside, but if Richard can keep limiting walks and homers, he could be a No. 3 starter if everything breaks right. He's more likely to be an innings eater, but he's a solid, underrated prospect.

Baseball Boss

shaftr — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 05:06:47 -0000

Baseball Boss

I've been playing a lot of lately. The game has cards from 1907 & 2007 and you are randomly given 40 cards to start. You create a 25 man roster and slowly build your team with your winnings (by using the auction system or buying more packs).

PS> Matt Thornton is dominant on my team.

Here is a picture of what MLB.tv looks like on my TV. I have it running out of my MacBook...

shaftr — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 01:06:51 -0000

Here is a picture of what MLB.tv looks like on my TV. I have it running out of my MacBook (DVI>VGA) and into my Vizio HD TV. This is from MLB Mosaic at it's highest quality.

Offday Fun - Favorite Player Roster

shaftr — Thu, 03 May 2007 16:50:11 -0000

I thought we need some offday funs (since right now gamedays aren't even fun).

Anyways, list your starting line up of active players consisting only of your favorite players (not necessarily the best).

Mine:

C - Brian McCann: underrated b/c of Mauer
1b - Julio Franco: This was tough, but whenever I see him at this age I am amused.
2b - Ray Durham: He was one of my favorites with the White Sox, and I didn't know who else to pick.
SS - Jose Reyes: Easy.
3b - Joe Crede: Easier.
LF - Carl Crawford: I'd be fine if the White Sox overpayed for him.
CF - Bill Hall: God.
RF - Vladimir Guerrero: I was a bigger fan when he was with the Expos and still had his speed.
SP - Pedro Martinez: Truly dominating and I really hope he can regain that form.

Offday Fun

shaftr — Tue, 03 Apr 2007 19:45:49 -0000

A thoroughly honest game-show host has placed a car behind one of three doors. There is a goat behind each of the other doors. You have no prior knowledge that allows you to distinguish among the doors. "First you point toward a door," he says. "Then I'll open one of the other doors to reveal a goat. After I've shown you the goat, you make your final choice whether to stick with your initial choice of doors, or to switch to the remaining door. You win whatever is behind the door." You begin by pointing to door number 1. The host shows you that door number 3 has a goat.

Do the player's chances of getting the car increase by switching to Door 2?

NOTE: Explanation - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem/

("Do you see what happens, Larry?")

Poll

Do your chances increase by switching?

Yes

21 votes

No

3 votes

Stays the Same

11 votes

35 votes | Poll has closed