Hello, NFL fans!

A concept we'll be continuing ad infinitum is the 24-hour open thread for fans of all football, located in the FanPosts section of Battle Red Blog (a special thanks to Tim for allowing such nonsense for the low, low price of 2 Coors Lights). A place where football fans can get together and chat about a variety of topics ranging from football to foot fetishes. Just think of it as your favorite bar/hang-out spot where you can get to know your fellow NFL fans on a more relaxed and personal basis. The point of this thread will be to bring us, the fans of the NFL, together for some friendly conversation and camaraderie. These threads started out as a place for AFC South fans to gather, but it has grown to include fans from various NFL teams with Seahawks, Saints, Patriots, Dolphins, 49ers, Eagles, Jets and Packers fans in residence. Don't ask how that works, just be happy it does.

UPDATE:

We've also been honored to inspire other teams and divisions to form their own 24-hour open threads. We welcome them all as part of our growing network of sister-threads, so stop by and check them out. Just be sure to be respectful of their differing rules and traditions. In short, don't be abrasive until they get to know you a little better.

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Myself (peytonsurdaddy) and TexansDC from BRB will be hosting the threads. As time goes on we'd like to add a representative from both the Titans and Jaguars fans as well. You may lobby for the position by killing a pedestrian at random being a Titans or Jags fan and just showing up for more than 5 minutes and basically having nothing better to do with your life.

Thanks,

peytonsurdaddy

Welcome one and all to the OTA - Off-Topic Activities or Open To Anything or Oughtta Talk Alot or Open Thread All!. The best place to not discuss football at Pats Pulpit.

This is a thread for anyone who would like to enjoy some pleasant conversation that may or may not be football related. This is a place where some of us can get to know each other a little bit better, and on a slightly different level than other places on the site. A thread that may contain at times humorous dialogue, quotes, pictures, or anything else that might entertain. Remember to have a good time! But also please remember to keep it somewhat clean. We'd prefer innuendo over gory details.

Rules

All the rules are based on this: Have fun, but don't keep other people from having fun.

a) Don't troll each other, or attack other members. You learned this in kindergarten.

b) If a picture is NSFW (Not Safe For Work), do not post it as a picture. Instead post it as a link.

c) Be kind to newbies, and help them fit in. Remember to share your crayons.

d) If someone asks you nicely to steer clear of a topic, find something else to talk about.

e) Any and all other SBN and PatsPulpit rules apply. In other words, this ain't Vegas.

Rec this thread, so it stays atop the most rec'd fanposts. Unrec it when another thread is made.

Below is a guide to certain slang, lingo, nicknames, or any kind of term that we use here at the Pulpit.

Format: Term – Definition/ Explanation [Creator of term/First to use]

Citgo – a place where irrelevant people especially in sports will be/ are working.
examples:
What is HC Mangini/a doing now?-Working @ the citgo
What is Adiaulus Thomas doing right now-Working at the citgo.

DDR- Moniker for Lawrence Maroney which describes his tendency to "dance" at the line of scrimmage, in comparison to the style in which players dance of the arcade game "Dance Dance Revolution" (AtomicDawg)
Fredo/Mangina - Nicknames for ex-Pats assistant coach Eric Mangini (creator/first to use term unknown)
Toy Story/Woody/Buzz – Nicknames for RB Danny Woodhead (Richard Hill)
The Executioner- Nickname for Devin McCourty (Comedic.Sans)
Steal This Thread/Jack A Thread – (SlotMachinePlayer/NinjaZX6R) A predecessor of this thread.
Hoodie & BB– Nicknames for HC Bill Belichick; derived from the many hooded sweatshirts he wears in public
GRONK – usually typed in capital letters, nickname in short for TE Rob Gronkowski

Da Gronk - Dan Gronkowski
Herndo/A-Hern/H-Bomb – Nicknames for TE Aaron Hernandez
Law Firm/Benny– Nickname for RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis; derived for the many combined names he has, which is similar to any law firm made up of 3 or more people
Seabass – Nickname for RT Sebastian Vollmer
Space Emperor of Space – Nickname for P Zoltan Mesko
Smurfs — Nickname for the Patriots’ collection of undersized position players (primarily Branch, Woodhead, and Welker, but may also include Faulk and Edelman) -Created by Comedic Sans
Mini Missile/ Ka-Chung!!!!!!- Nickname for our Strong Safety Patrick Chung.
BoB / BooB-Bill O' Brien - Pats offensive Coordinator- Bob; When He is on fire; BooB when He is just sucks.
Todd Light- Matt Light- CBS's Jim Nanz calls him that lol

RaID - Ras-I Dowling - Raiding a receiver near you.

Boomerang/Boomer - Ross Ventrone - A player thats gotten thrown off the active roster repeatedly yet keeps returning to the practice squad, then active roster, then practice squad....

Many thanks to all that have made these threads possible and popular in the past.

My last and most ambitious attempt at predicting tomorrow night's draft.

Round 1 

1. Carolina: Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama

You know what I really don't like about Cam Newton, more than anything else? 14 career starts. College games started is a quite strong predictor of QB success in the NFL, before those of you less into statgeekry dismiss this, the best explanation for the predictive power of that stat I've seen has everything to do with the people breaking down tape rather than looking at the stats. The more tape scouts have to look at for a prospect the better they can evaluate them. Of the 7 QBs being considered in the early rounds, only Newton has less than 28 starts. Newton is a massive gamble, and the stakes are too high with the #1 pick.


2. Denver: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

Denver needs to add defensive talent and Peterson is the best defender still on the board. If Dareus isn't the top pick he could be taken over Peterson as DT is a more pressing need and Dareus is at the very least close in value to Peterson.


3. Buffalo: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

Is Ryan Fitpatrick the caliber of QB you want starting for you, no, but a defense that can't pressure the other QB is a massive obstacle to respectability that they can do much more to address in this spot.


4. Cincinnati: AJ Green, WR, Georgia

The Bengals have some promising complementary targets, but they need a better top guy after a year of Owens and Ochocinco failing to live up to their big names.

5. Arizona: Robert Quinn, LB, North Carolina

The Cards OLBs are old and weren't especially productive last year. There are more question marks than you'd like on Quinn, but he's a top 5 talent.

6. Cleveland: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

Like Cincy Cleveland has some useful pieces, but nothing #1 quality.

7. San Francisco: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

Yeah, I don't like this QB class. Amukamara will be a big help in bringing the Niners pass offense up to match it's excellent run D.

8. Tennessee: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

Too much talent and production to fall much further, but drafting a player with only 1 year of production early is a big gamble.

9. Dallas: Cameron Jordan, DE, California

Dallas didn't get much from their DEs and Jordan is ideal for a 3-4.

10. Washington: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Any prospect that responds to "give me a play you ran at (your college) with a blank stare is not someone I want to gamble millions on, but someone will and Washington is a real candidate to.

11: Houston: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin

Tough spot for the Texans without a good way to address their main needs, but Watt would be a strong contributor in the Texans new front.

12: Minnesota: Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson

I can buy some slippage, but I've seen nothing that justifies the guy going from being discussed for the #1 overall pick to falling to the late 1st.

TRADE: #13 to SD for #18 and #82

13. San Diego: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple

In recent drafts the Chargers have made a big move to get a prospect they like and have used an early pick on a small school guy. Why not do both at the same time?

14. St. Louis: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

The Rams have 3 very nice pieces on the DL and a black hole at the 3-tech. Liuget rounds out the unit, which should be fantastic next year.

15. Miami: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

Why is a guy that has worse stats in the same offense as a guy that went undrafted a 1st round pick? I don't know, but he will be.

16. Jacksonville: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri

Kerrigan is a safer choice, but the Jags need to go out on more of a limb to really fix a terrible pass rush.

Continue reading this post »

I'm extremely distrustful of information that appears in the last couple weeks before the draft. Teams have reviewed tape for months, poked and prodded the prospects in person at the combine, but are just now sweetening or souring on a prospect? If you didn't hear rumblings of it before or in the immediate aftermath of the combine, don't trust it now. Trying to keep that in mind, here's my take on how the draft goes down in two weeks.

1. Carolina Panthers- Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
There isn't a clear #1 overall worthy prospect in this class, but none of the QBs are even close to worth it. Cam Newton strikes me as the lovechild of Tim Tebow (big, strong and mobile) and Vince Young (riding one strong season capped with a title to a top draft spot) while Blaine Gabbert was a much less effective passer than his undrafted predecessor Chase Daniel. Dareus and AJ Green are the two sensible choices here. Green is the safer pick with the talent, production and polish to succeed quickly in the NFL, but Dareus could be the capstone of a excellent defense. The Panthers had a top 10 pass D by DVOA last year but didn't get much pressure from the interior and were below average against the run. Even with AJ Green their offense will still be bad, but with Dareus their D could be great.

2. Denver Broncos- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
The Broncos could use some front 7 pieces for their switch to a 4-3 defense, but they can't pass up the best defensive player on the board after finishing bottom 4 against the pass and the run. John Fox has the Denver job because the defense in 2010 was intolerably bad, he can't be choosey about where Denver adds defensive talent.

3. Buffalo Bills- Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
The Bills leading sacker was NT Kyle Williams with 5.5. All the Bills linebackers combined for less than 10 sacks. This from a 3-4 defense! Miller is a fearsome pass rusher who has both the athletic skills and college production of a top prospect.

4. Cincinnati Bengals- AJ Green, WR, Georgia
Green should be able to contribute quickly to an offense that has several good young complimentary targets but was dragged down by Owens and Ochocinco performance falling far short of their fame.

5. Arizona Cardinals-  Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina
Peterson or Miller would be ideal, but with both gone and the top QBs not worth the pick the Cards add a badly needed edge rusher. The Cards starting OLBs were the 33 year old Joey Porter and Clark Haggens who had 5 sacks a piece. There are a lot of questions around Quinn, but he's got the talent to justify a top 5 selection.

6. Cleveland Browns- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
The Browns front 7 needs serious work, but their need at WR is just as big. The Browns had no WRs with more than 500 yards, 40 catches or 3 TDs last year. If their offense is going to function under Colt McCoy they need better targets.

7. San Francisco - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
The Niners need to bring their pass D up to a level closer to their run defense if they are going to stay in games. Prince is better value than any of the edge rushers left and while both were below average, the pass rush outperformed the overall pass D.

8. Tennessee - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Fairley's stock has been slipping as his performance in the national championship game faded from memory a bit, allowing everyone to remember that while he was dominant this past season, he was a non-factor previously. Add in being outshone by the much larger, stouter and more versatile Dareus and he's no longer a serious contender for the top spot. Putting up a season that stacks up to Suh's last year of college however, is going to get you drafted in the top 10.

9. Dallas - Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Jordan is ideal for and experienced in a 3-4 D. The Cowboys got very little impact up front from players not named Ratliff. Jordan improves the D all around.

10. Washington - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
While I think it'll be a horrible mistake, someone is going to pull the trigger on Cam Newton in the top 10, probably earlier than this. Washington is supposedly trying to move up for him, which is exactly the kind of short-sighted big name chasing you'd expect from them.

Continue reading this post »

1. Carolina (2-14): Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

Despite being the worst team in the league the Panthers were good at something, they had the #8 passing defense by DVOA. Since passing the ball and stopping the pass are the biggest factors in winning games, there's actually somewhat of a foundation to build on here. An 8th ranked passing D with the 17th best pass rush points to a strong back 7 and a breakout year from Charles Johnson along with young DEs Everette Brown and Greg Hardy showing promise (6.5 sacks between them last year). A stud DT would give the Panthers an excellent pass D and bring the sub-par run D up to make a very legitimate unit. The offense will still have major issues (though simply having more stability than the revolving door they had at QB and RB should make for improvement), but the D should keep it in reach, and in a close game, anything can happen.

2. Denver (4-12): Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Another team that did one thing very well and lots of stuff very poorly. Denver passed the ball very well most of the season, but it didn't get them far when they couldn't play D or run the ball. The O is in flux with the Orton/Tebow question undecided, so while that's hashed out they can address the D that got McDaniels fired. An elite CB prospect next to/in front of/in place of Champ Bailey (depending on if/where he goes) and the return of Elvis Dumervil makes for a two pronged attack on a pass D that didn't get pressure well nor cover much better.

3. Buffalo (4-12) Marcel Dareus, DE, Alabama
While NT Kyle Williams was widely praised and earned a Pro Bowl nod, the rest of the DL around him failed miserably against the run. Buffalo ranked dead last in adjusted line yards, last in % of runs stuffed, 31st in 2nd level yards, but 13th in open field yards. The back 7 can bring a runner down, but the DL is getting blown off the ball so badly by the time they can do so, the damage is already done. There are prospects that'd do more for the Bills poor pass rush, but Dareus helps in multiple facets, vital for a D that didn't do much particularly well.

4. Cincinnati (4-12) AJ Green, WR, Georgia
Green is in the discussion for #1 overall and for good reason. Cincy fed Owens 139 targets (8th most in the league) and Ochocinco 126 (14th most) without getting 1,000 yards or 75 receptions from either of them. No wonder Carson Palmer would rather retire than come back to that. A passing offense built around Green, the far more efficient Jordan Shipley and Andre Caldwell and TE Jermaine Gresham might not send QBs running away screaming.

5. Arizona (5-11) Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina
This draft doesn't have a quick fix to the glaring hole on Arizona's roster (you know, the one that turned Larry Fitzgerald into the 71st most productive WR per play) so they address the pass rush. 5 sacks each from your edge rushers isn't terrible, but both Joey Porter and Clark Haggans will be 34 when the draft rolls around. Quinn and O'Brien Schofield (2 sacks last year) gives them a pair of young edge rushers to take over and improve a mediocre pass rush. Playing in a hybrid D should help ease the transition from 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB for Quinn.

Continue reading this post »

With the draft order nearly set and college all-star games in full swing it's time to take the leap from only tracking/criticizing mock drafts to making one of my own. My first go at it this year so I'm very interested in guys I may have missed, poor scheme fits or commentary on any other weird ideas that somehow got in my head.

1. Carolina (2-14): Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
A breakout year from DE Charles Johnson and signs of life from young DEs Everette Brown and Greg Hardy puts Carolina in great position to build a very dangerous DL for new head coach Ron Rivera.

2. Denver (4-12): Patrick Peterson, CB/FS, LSU
With Champ Bailey possibly on the way out of Denver and talking about a position change even if he does stay an elite, versatile DB like Peterson is exactly what Denver needs behind what should be a much improved pass rush with the return of Elvis Dumervil.

3. Buffalo (4-12): Marcel Dareus, DE, Alabama
Buffalo ranked dead last in adjusted line yards, last in % of runs stuffed, 31st in 2nd level yards, but 13th in open field yards. The back 7 can bring a runner down, but the DL is getting blown off the ball so badly by the time they can do so, the damage is already done.

4. Cincinnati (4-12): A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Maybe a young, sane, stud WR will stop Carson Palmer from running away from this team screaming as he seems set to do. At the least it'll make it less likely his replacement quickly follows Palmer out the door.

5. Arizona (5-11): Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Prince should round out a pretty nice secondary with DRC, Adrian Wilson and Kerry Rhodes. The QB spot will still be a disaster barring a move for a veteran FA, but none of the highly touted QBs are all that Pro-ready.

6. Cleveland (5-11): Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Cleveland's overall pass D (15th) outperformed it's pass rush (20th) and the run D issues look to fall squarely on the DL (31st adjusted line yards, 28th vs power running, 31st stuffing runs). An accomplished pass rusher whose run D draws rave reviews. Bowers would be an excellent piece in the Browns new 4-3 D.

7. San Francisco (6-10): Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)
In addition to QB, SF is desperately in need of help in the secondary. An excellent run D and above average pass rush were dragged down by coverage failings to make for a bottom 10 pass D. Harris is better value with quicker impact than any of the QB prospects.

8. Tennessee (6-10): Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Pairing Jones with Kenny Britt and moving the stone handed Nate Washington into the far more appropriate role of field stretching 3rd WR gives Tennessee a great foundation to support a new QB.

9. Dallas (6-10): Cameron Jordan, DE, California
While 3-4 DEs are largely space eaters, no sacks and ~60 tackles from both DE spots combined isn't much impact. Throw in a #25 ranking in adjusted line yards and 29th place finishes both against power running and at stuffing runs and some more DL talent is definitely needed.

10. Washington (6-10): Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina
Pairing Quinn with Brian Orakpo should do a lot to fix the Redskins anemic pass rush, 30th in the league by adjusted sack rate. Quinn was declared ineligible for the entire 2010 season for accepting improper benefits but is a freak athlete who produced immediately at UNC.

Continue reading this post »

Colts starting MLB Gary Brackett missed practice all this week and is expected to be out when Indy goes to D.C. Sunday Night.

Officially Angerer is listed as 3rd string MLB behind former Nebraska LB Cody Glenn, but Angerer took over the position when Brackett missed the final 7 quarters of preseason action, despite Glenn being healthy. In addition Glenn is currently the only backup LB with both pro experience at OLB and more than 2 weeks on the roster. Further discounting the usefulness of the Colts publicly available depth chart, the player they listed as their starting strong safety all last week was cut the day before the game.

Angerer stood out in preseason with 36 tackles and 2 sacks, but has been limited to special teams duty so far this year, where he's looked pretty good. Indy runs a zone-heavy, light blitzing D that should be familiar to Angerer, but the most notable difference in Cover-2, which Iowa runs, to Tampa-2, Indy's scheme, is the middle linebackers' assignment. Angerer will be tasked with a much deeper and larger area to defend in the passing game while still holding down the middle against the run.

Continue reading this post »

Yeah, remember everything that was terrible last week? It wasn't tonight. The Colts put the first 24 points on the board before Mario Manningham got behind Jacob Lacey for the Giants first score of the game in the 3rd quarter. Eli Manning was sacked four times, stripped three, (recovered by Indy twice) and once picked off by Jerraud Powers. Massive back Brandon Jacobs recorded just 8 yards on 4 carries before an outburst ending with his helmet in the 10th row of the LOS seats got him fixed to the bench for the rest of the game. Addai put up 113 yards on 23 touches with Brown adding 83 on 16. Peyton was a deadly 20 for 26 for 255 and 3 TDs.

While Ahmad Bradshaw ran for over 5 YPC (89 yards on 17 carries) with the Giants in a deep hole early they had to take to the air where Eli was constantly harassed by the Colts pressure completing less than half his passes for barely over 100 yards in the first 55 minutes before garbage time drives got him to his final 13 for 24, 161 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT line.

While many will see this as a rebound for Indy, or an indication of the relative strength of the Texans and Giants, it is, but I also see a major testimonial for the benefits of an early lead. When the Colts can get out in front of a team they have to play into the strength of the Colts D. When they can't the D's strength is neutralized and weakest point exposed.

Out: Bob Sanders, Anthony Gonzalez

Questionable: 

Gary Brackett (back), practiced fully Wed/Thurs, no participation on Friday

Charlie Johnson (foot), limited Wednesday, full participation Thursday, sat out Friday

Robert Mathis (ankle), practiced fully Wed/Thurs, no participation on Friday

Clint Session (hamstring), sat Wed/Fri, limited Thurs

Ryan Diem (neck), full participation Wednesday, sat Thursday, limited Friday

Jacob Lacey (head), full participation all week.

Probable: 

Jeff Saturday (knee), full participation all week

Jerraud Powers (foot), full participation Weds/Thurs, sat Friday

Cody Glenn (hamstring), full participation all week

via Kuharsky on twitter (tip to Cass)

A choice to rest everyone with a minor ding seems more likely than a mid-week injury wave. I expect we'll see most if not all of the Questionable players. 

Still Out: Bob Sanders (biceps), Anthony Gonzalez (ankle),

Still Back: Jeff Saturday (knee), Jacob Lacey (head), Cody Glenn (hamstring)

Did not participate: Ryan Diem (neck), Ramon Humber (illness)

Limited: Clint Session (hamstring)

Full Participation: Charlie Johnson (foot)

Colts.com link

Did Not Participate: Bob Sanders (bicep), Anthony Gonzalez (ankle), Clint Session (hamstring)

Limited: Charlie Johnson (foot)

Full Participation: Jeff Saturday (knee), Jacob Lacey (head), Cody Glenn (hamstring)

Colts.com link

The Giants report is not posted yet, but starting TE Kevin Boss has been ruled out for Sunday with a concussion.

Are the Colts in serious trouble or was Sunday just a minor hiccup in what should be another year of Colts contention?

It's not hard to point to numbers that back either side with just one week in the books. Peyton Manning's performance graded out as, by far, the most outstanding passing performance of the week. Conversely the top producer at RB was Texans lead back Arian Foster. Also appearing in FO's quick reads were Austin Collie as the 4th most productive WR (though he drops out of the top 5 when his fumble, misattributed to Garçon by the NFL gamebook, is factored in), and Garçon as the least productive WR of the week after catching just 3 of 10 targets for 43 yards.

The ratings of Manning and Foster should make it no surprise that the Colts overall and passing offense come in at #5 while the overall defense narrowly escapes dead last and the run D occupies it's own level of awful at the very bottom of the ratings.

The Colts special teams too, scrape the bottom of the barrel after week one coming in at 29th with the punting and kickoff return teams dragging down the remaining, mediocre, elements.

While most of the Colts stats sit at an extreme, the run O (14th) and pass D (20th) sit within sight of league average.

VOA was clearly underwhelmed by the Colts week 1 performance slotting the Colts in at 27th in the league. DAVE is much more a friend of the team. 1 week isn't nearly enough to judge a team by, so DAVE is the Outsiders way of dealing with the small sample size. DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early, combines FO's preseason projection of team strength with the incoming early season results (decreasing the weight of the preseason projection each week as the sample of real games grows).

With FO's positive preseason outlook for the Colts making up 90% of their DAVE rating, their wretched week 1 performance only dropped them from 4th overall (4th in the AFC) to 7th overall (4th in the AFC). DAVE is also used for FO's postseason odds report which still has Indy as a clear favorite in the division despite being a game behind the rest of the AFC South and has more likely than not to make the playoffs.

No real surprises, the Colts rated highly where they looked good (passing), rated terribly where they looked awful (run D, special teams) and one game is not nearly enough to write off a team expected to contend, or anoint a team projected to falter.

[Update: I accidentally left 3 runs out of the 2 possession game numbers, counted drive #4 as a one possession lead drive, when it was 2 and counted Arian Foster's single reception as a run in drive 2. The numbers should all be correct now, I double checked all the totals]

The Colts defense is built with the Colts O in mind. An emphasis on speed and quickness over size and strength combined with safeties sitting deep the vast majority of the game isn't a philosophy embraced with defending 40 run plays a game in mind. By philosophy, scheme and roster construction the Colts D is pass defense first. The reason this has worked to the tune of 8 straight playoff berths and 10+ win seasons, 7 straight 12+ win seasons, 2 AFC titles and a Super Bowl victory is because the Colts have an offense that regularly forces the oppositions hand in their playcalling.

The Colts offense is one of, if not the most important component of their defense. The offense's job is to shift the opponents run-pass balance, forcing the opponent to battle through the vicious teeth of the D and ignore it's vulnerable underbelly.

Excluding the final kneedowns the Texans had 9 drives. Here's how they ran on each:

(Success Rate is a football Outsiders stat, a play is considered a success if it gains at least 40% of the yardage to go on 1st down, 60% of the yardage to go on 2nd or 100% on 3rd or 4th down. When leading in the 4th quarter the benchmarks are reduced to 30%/50%/100%)

Drive 1 (tied): 3 runs, 11 yards, 66% success rate, 3.67 YPC

Drive 2 (up 3): 0 runs

Drive 3 (up 6): 4 runs, 14 yards, 75% success rate, 3.5 YPC

Drive 4 (up 13): 2 runs, 17 yards, 100% success rate, 8.5 YPC

Drive 5 (up 6): 1 run, -2 yards, 0% success rate, -2 YPC

Drive 6 (up 3): 13 runs, 60 yards, 77% success rate, 4.6 YPC

Drive 7 (up 10): 5 runs, 28 yards, 80% success rate, 5.6 YPC

Drive 8 (up 10): 4 runs, 91 yards, 100% success rate, 22.8 YPC

Drive 9 (up 10): 7 runs, 41 yards, 86% success rate, 5.86 YPC

Looks pretty noisy, but they come together in major trends when groups by quarter and by the Texans lead.

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Key miscues by the offense left the Colts unable to compensate for very poor protection and run defense. Early drops by Pierre Garcon forced the Colts to punt from midfield and kick a short FG, a 3rd and long sack took the Colts out of FG position, confusion on the O-line forced the Colts to burn two of their 2nd half TOs early, allowing the Texans to run out the clock much more easily, and an Austin Collie fumble inside the 10 ended another big scoring opportunity. Those miscues kept the Colts from covering up major struggles in run D and pass protection. 

Peyton lived on checkdowns most of the game and was sacked twice as the Texans were able to apply pressure all game. Meanwhile Texans backs Arian Foster and Steve Slaton ground out yardage and drained the clock with over 250 yards on the ground.

The Texans threw only 19 passes, but the threat of a potent passing game kept the Colts safeties back, opening up extra room for the Texans run game.

The Colts need to pass protect and defend the run better, but the miscues on offense put the Colts into a death spiral. Trailing all game tipped both teams playcalling away from the Colts ideal. The Texans were able to use a run heavy attack with 40 runs to 19 passes, while the Colts were forced to abandon any semblance of balance, running just 10 times vs 58 passes. The Colts are built to play close and with a lead.

The Colts can compete with sub-par protection and run D, but they can't afford any mistakes on offense when those units struggle to this extent.

I still have high hopes for this team, but the offense needs to execute to their usual high standard while the offensive line and run D need to give them some margin for error.

Normally I'd post a gameball poll, but I can't think of anyone but Joseph Addai who impressed me today turning shaky run blocking and checkdown passes into 73 yards of offense with 4.4 YPC.

Still Out: Jacob Lacey (Head), Cody Glenn (Hamstring)

Still Limited: Charlie Johnson (foot)

Still Practicing: Jeff Saturday (knee)

New Addition: Anthony Gonzalez, (Limited: back)

Rested: Bob Sanders

Colts.com link

Over on the Texans side, 4th corner Antwaan Mouldin has missed both practices while starting LT and TE Duane Brown and Owen Daniels have been limited so far this week.

Texans report

With a winless preseason in the books (first since 2005) we finally have the opener in sight. The Colts open their season in just 7 days, 1pm eastern time next Sunday, at Houston. While I expect the Texans to have no answer for Dallas Clark, the thought of a different matchup keeps my outlook on next Sunday from being totally sunshine and puppies.

Mario Williams vs Charlie Johnson and/or Tony Ugoh

Williams joined Freeney and Mathis as the non-Colts representative of the AFC DEs in the last two Pro Bowls, earning the nods with 21 sacks and 6 fumbles forced the last two years, and 35 sacks with 8FFs the last 3. Taking SuperMario at the top of a class headlined by Reggie Bush and the QB trio of Young, Leinart and Cutler was widely questioned, but Williams has justified the pick while the headliners have disappointed.

Williams is an elite DE and, troublingly, it's shown through against the Colts. As a rookie Williams was ineffective against Tarik Glenn, but since then Williams has 5 sacks in 6 meetings, including 4 in the last 4 and a sack in both meetings last year.

While I'm hoping that Charlie Johnson is back for week 1, there is some reason to take heart even if he sits. Both Ugoh and CJ have faced Williams 3 times. Williams has 4 sacks against CJ, with just 1 against Ugoh. A sign of the wide gulf in physical abilities between the two Colts LTs or just a fluke of small sample, I don't know. Even taken as totally representative of their respective abilities we're all too familiar with the lapses and inconsistencies in Ugoh's game to have too much confidence.

Williams has recorded a sack in all 3 of his matchups against Charlie Johnson with 4 total. I would call that troubling. This leaves us with the question, does likely blindside pressure make up for a likely inability to contain Dallas Clark, or will a deep receiving corps lacking a convincing answer from the Texans side make any pressure too little, too late?

The old baseball aphorism is that "Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." and it's true for football to the extent that any coverage will break down after enough time without pressure and any amount of pressure is futile if a target goes totally uncovered, but I think a final answer can be teased out in pressure vs coverage in football. Pressure always takes time to develop. Watch a half-decently executed screen pass for the proof, even unblocked (by design) the rushers take long enough to arrive at the QB for target and his blocking to set up. We see this all the time. Tim Jennings was reviled on the site because he was oftentimes the weak link keeping the coverage from holding up long enough for Freeney and/or Mathis to reach the QB. Pressure takes the long ball away, but is no answer for the short pass. That has to come from the coverage.

At least that's how I'm rationalizing away the player matchup I can't see the Colts winning.

With a winless preseason in the books (first since 2005) we finally have the opener in sight. The Colts open their season in just 9 days, 1pm eastern time next Sunday, at Houston. Even before TC opened everyone had one eye trained on the start of the real season, and one matchup has had me drooling for months now.

Dallas Clark vs Whatever the Texans throw at him

Last year Clark shredded the Texans D for 183 yards and a TD on 23 receptions in the two divisional matchups. Week 8 Clark was a reality check for DROY to be Brian Cushing. The Texans manned Cushing up on Clark with the (predictable) result of a career high 14 receptions and Clark's 2nd of his two 100 yard games last season. The Texans D didn't fare much better Week 12 as Clark caught 9 for 63 with a TD.

Clark's 100 reception, 1,106 yard, 10 TD, 2009 season was impressive, but prorating his performance against the Texans out to a full 16 games gives a 184 reception, 1,464 yard, 8 TD season monster of a year.

...and week 1 the Texans will be without one of the key players used to "contain" Clark last year. Brian Cushing's PED suspension will have him sidelined for the Colts' and Texans' first matchup. Houston's 1st rounder Kareem Jackson rose through their thin secondary to a starting spot, so will probably be needed on the outside against the Colts deep WR corps leaving WLB Zach Diles, backup LB Xavier Adibi, or one of the Texans young, inexperienced and lightly regarded slot corners to face Clark if the Texans want to keep the cover-2 over the top that's been a fixture of Ds facing Peyton Manning since 2006.

Also working in the Colts favor is the addition of Brody Eldridge. In previous years the most effective way to take Clark out of the receiving game was to get so much pressure that the Colts hold Clark in to block (see the Ravens game last year). With a fantastic in-line blocker on the roster and seeing 1st team snaps in preseason the Colts have another option for helping an overwhelmed tackle that keeps Clark out running patterns.

A more seasoned Cushing seemed by far the Texans best option to slow Clark, but without him it seems quite likely he'll rack up another big game on Houston.

Encouraging

• Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne is still straight money.
• Joseph Addai with 100 yards on just 9 touches.
• Brody Eldridge was used early and often as the Colts shifted between 3 WR and 2 TE sets.
• Run D,  Packers were held to 3 YPC and the middle of Muir and Mookie stuffed a big 4th and 1 QB sneak early.
• Pat Angerer stepped up very well for Brackett making a number of excellent stops against the run and having his great cover skills on a QB rollout highlighted by the ESPN crew.
• Bob Sanders was back bringing the pain in the secondary and erasing runningbacks foolish enough to elude the front 7.
• Fili Moala was working with the 1st team D early on.
• Curtis Painter looked sharp his first time out, leading a TD drive.
• Ray Fisher ripped off a long kickoff return in answer to the Packers return TD.

Jim Irsay (via Mike Chappell at the Indy Star) didn't make a strong statement about how much time they expect Center Jeff Saturday to miss, but gave a rough time frame despite the quite variable nature of arthroscopic surgery recovery.

"With scopes you never know...We've seen guys come back in two weeks, you see some guys come back in six weeks....You're hoping it's the shorter side of the scale. It just depends on the guy, how quick he can rebound.''

This puts Saturday on the sidelines for at least the Colts first two preseason games (8/15 vs SF and 8/19 @BUF) with the upper end of the range extending through the season opener in Houston.

As LB noted this morning, Saturday bounced back relatively quickly from a knee injury in 2008 and sports injury expert Will Carroll called the surgery "no big deal" which gives reason to lean towards the low end of the range.

For at least the start of the pre-season and if worst comes to worst the start of the real deal, the Colts will have to lean on the several interior line players with experience at center; Pollak, DeVan, Richard and when he returns from his undisclosed injury McClendon.