SB Nation User Blog: shake n bake

WR stats, best 8 year totals

shake n bake — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:32:21 -0000

My last post gave the best and worst single seasons, now here are the best and worst of the whole 8 year span.

Top 20 Rec over Ave

WR	Targets	Catch%	AY/R	Rec Over Ave
Marvin Harrison	1037	64.5%	9.8	84.1
Reggie Wayne	839	65.4%	10.5	83.1
Derrick Mason	1062	64.0%	9.5	77.2
Torry Holt	1222	60.2%	10.8	61.7
Hines Ward	1050	64.4%	7.7	53.5
T.J. Houshmand	732	66.4%	7.4	48.8
Bobby Engram	561	66.8%	7.7	42.6
Keenan McCardell	600	62.5%	9.5	34.4
Troy Brown	462	69.3%	6.1	32.7
Donald Driver	891	60,6%	9.3	32.2
Wes Welker	395	73.4%	4.6	31.0
Eric Parker	221	68.8%	10.7	29.8
Larry Fitzgerald	713	59.8%	10.4	29.3
Issac Bruce	906	58.2%	11.0	28.9
Dennis Northcutt	454	62.8%	9.3	26.3
Eddie Kennison	556	58.1%	12.3	25.2
Chad Ochocinco	1025	57.0%	11.4	25.1
Andre Johnson	790	61.2%	8.2	24.0
Steve Smith	804	61.3%	8.1	21.7
Rod Smith	788	62.4%	7.4	20.9

The Colts duo top the list, but not far back at all is Derrick Mason. None of Mason's past 8 seasons have had a catch% below 60.7% (57.1% is the average), and his AirYards per Reception over the last 8 years is only a tenth of a yard below league average.

Bottom 20 Rec over Ave

WR	Targets	Catch%	AY/R	Rec Over Ave
David Patten	449	51.8%	10.5	-17.1
David Terrell	238	50.0%	8.9	-18.0
Plaxico Burress	941	51.3%	12.5	-19.0
Darrell Jackson	919	54.0%	10.0	-19.1
Amani Toomer	884	52.8%	10.8	-20.1
Raghib Ismail	134	39.6%	11.3	-20.1
Jerry Porter	507	51.9%	10.2	-20.1
Quincy Morgan	317	48.9%	10.6	-20.6
Dez White	339	51.6%	8.1	-24.2
Brandon Lloyd	256	44.5%	11.7	-24.6
Roy Williams	550	50.9%	10.3	-26.4
Peerless Price	583	52.7%	8.9	-28.8
Az Hakim	683	52.7%	9.2	-29.8
Corey Bradford	346	46.5%	10.7	-30.1
Travis Taylor	554	51.1%	9.6	-30.2
Joey Galloway	759	50.3%	11.4	-31.4
Braylon Edwards	475	48.0%	11.2	-31.7
Marty Booker	815	54.4%	8.3	-33.2
Rod Gardner	463	49.0%	9.5	-35.7
Chris Chambers	970	48.8%	10.5	-65.0

These stone handed WRs aren't the worst WRs in the league. They aren't even the WRs with the worst hands, WRs with worse hands didn't get onto the field or didn't get near the hundreds of targets most of the list has. Most of these guys aren't bad WRs, they'd have to be pretty special at something for coaches to overlook their (lack of) hands. Not too many surprises on the list, mediocre deep threats, giant jump-ball WRs, scrubs and busts. The real standout is just how bad Chris Chambers has been. Nearly double the next worse WR. Though it's less of a surprise when you notice the gloves Chambers wears on gameday.

via www.sassafrasstore.com

Top 20 Yards over Average

WR	Targets	YAC	YOA
Reggie Wayne	839	5.7	1014
Marvin Harrison	1037	4.4	916
Derrick Mason	1062	4.4	841
Torry Holt	1222	4.1	653
Hines Ward	1050	4.4	583
T.J. Houshmand	732	4.6	541
Bobby Engram	561	4.4	464
Wes Welker	395	5.9	384
Troy Brown	462	5.0	376
Keenan McCardell	600	4.4	375
Donald Driver	891	4.4	351
Eric Parker	221	4.4	324
Larry Fitzgerald	713	4.4	319
Issac Bruce	906	4.4	315
Steve Smith (CAR)	804	6.7	286
Dennis Northcutt	454	4.4	286
Eddie Kennison	556	4.4	274
Chad Ochocinco	1025	4.4	273
Andre Johnson	790	4.4	261
Rod Smith	788	5.7	254

Noticeably absent from the top 20 (and top 40) are two players generally considered two of the top 3 WRs of the last decade. Terrell Owens and Randy Moss. Both have catch percents only slightly above expected, Moss with a below average YAC/R, Owens with a significantly above average one (but since the YAC credit is currently based off Rec over Average, a good YAC without good hands doesn't do much for YOA). Moss and Owens were #2 and #3 in targets. Their production seems to be more about maintaining slightly above average effieciency over a massive workload, moreso than being all that effiecent. Wayne jumps Marvin for the top spot by virtue of his excellent YAC. That seems to be all YOA is good for in it's current incarnation, seperating top hands WRs based on YAC. It's currently useless for WRs with below average hands ratings, and doesn't work as well as I'd like for WRs close to the average (T.O. the 45th best WR of the last 8 years). I'll work on the formula for a better overall WR metric.

WR Stats, 2006-2001 data added and YOA

shake n bake — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:08:23 -0000

Last time I used the relationship between Catch% and AirYards per Completion (yards per completion with yards after catch removed) to give an evaluation of WR hands over the last two seasons. Today with 8 years of data (as far back as I can find YAC info for) Catch% and AY/C remain correlated, allowing for 8 years of hands eval and an attempt at an overall WR ranking.

AirYards per Reception (x axis) vs Catch% (y axis)

Top 20 Catch% over expected

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Dennis Northcutt 02	50	+19.6%
Ike Hilliard 08	58	+19.3%
Anthony Gonzalez 07	51	+17.3%
Johnnie Morton 04	79	15.9%
Ricky Proehl 01	55	+15.9%
Derrick Mason 03	134	+15.8%
Jerry Porter 02	70	+15.2%
Eric Parker 05	80	+14.8%
Torry Holt 04	136	+14.5%
Jabar Gaffney 07	50	+14.3%
Keenan McCardell 06	51	+14.2%
Hines Ward 04	109	+13.9%
Anthony Gonzalez 08	79	+13.7%
Eric Parker 06	70	+13.5%
Andre Johnson 07	86	+13.4%
Reggie Wayne 04	115	+12.8%
Kevin Curtis 06	57	+12.5%
Ashley Lelie 02	53	+12.4%
Darrell Jackson 05	55	+12.4%
Antwaan Randle El 04	62	+12.2%

That 2002 Dennis Northcutt line is amazing. Of his 50 targets he caught 38 of him (76%) while averaging 15.8 yards per reception (9.8 AirYards/C). Making it even more astonishing was that it was done while catching passes from Tim Couch and lining up besides Kevin Johnson and Quincy Morgan. Ashley Lelie was a surprise to me since his name is associated with perrienial disappointment in my mind, but to be a disappointment you have to of built expectations. Lelie definetly did so catching 66% of his targets (well above average) with an average catch depth of 12 yards (top 1/8th of the sample) in 2002. Both of Anthony Gonzalez's seasons remain in the top 15, Reggie Wayne's '04 checks in at 16th, and just missing the chart at #21 is Marvin Harrison's 143 catch, 205 target, 2002 season. Marvin Harrison does not care for your concept of diminishing returns.

Bottom 20 Catch% over Expected

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Justin McCareins 08	73	-13.9%
Robert Ferguson 02	52	-14.1%
Keary Colbert 07	69	-14.1%
Keary Colbert 05	55	-14.2%
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-14.2%
Travis Taylor 04	80	-14.2%
Charles Rodgers 03	52	-14.6%
Clarence Moore 04	58	-14.7%
Roy Williams 08	82	-14.7%
Brad Smith 07	67	-14.9%
Raghib Ismail 01	134	-15.0%
Quincy Morgan 01	72	-15.7%
Rashied Davis 06	56	-15.9%
Greg Jennings 06	105	-16.2%
Az Hakim 03	108	-16.3%
Marcus Robinson 02	53	-17.2%
Jason McAddley 02	69	-18.1%
Corey Bradford 03	62	-18.3%
Chris Chambers 06	153	-20.0%
David Patten 05	53	-21.8%

The worse run the range from stone handed speedsters (Chambers, Ismail, Hakim), to the master of the failed screen/dumpoff (converted Missouri QB Brad Smith). David Patten is absolutely puzzling. How does an NFL WR get 53 passes thrown his way when he barely catches 40% of them at a depth of less than 6 yards? Greg Jennings' shows that a terrible hands year isn't enough to write off a rookie. His following two seasons had catch%'s above expected.

Top 20 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Marvin Harrison 02	205	+24.9
Derrick Mason 03	134	+21.1
Torry Holt 04	136	+19.8
Andre Johnson 08	170	+18.4
Reggie Wayne 07	156	+17.7
Wes Welker 07	145	+17.6
Torry Holt 03	183	+17.1
Hines Ward 02	160	+16.2
Marvin Harrison 01	164	+16.2
Troy Brown 01	140	+16.0
Randy Moss 03	172	+16.0
Hines Ward 04	109	+15.1
Reggie Wayne 04	115	+14.7
Troy Brown 02	127	+14.6
Marvin Harrison 03	142	+14.4
Marvin Harrison 06	148	+14.0
Laveranues Coles 02	134	+14.0
Marques Colston 07	144	+13.6
Steve Breaston 08	113	+13.3

Marvin Harrison owns this list running away with the top spot and appearing 4 times in the 8 year span, no other WR appears more than twice in the top 20 (Reggie Wayne owns the #21 and #24 seasons to put him as the only other WR with more than 2 seasons in the top 25). Troy Brown's work as a possession WR for the early Brady Patriots gets serious love for the biggest surprise to me in the top 20.

Bottom 20 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Randy Moss 06	97	-12.2
Roy Williams 04	118	-12.4
Jason McAddley 02	69	12.5
Dez White 03	107	-12.7
Peter Warrick 01	137	-12.8
Eric Moulds 01	136	-12.8
Lavernanues Coles 04	168	-13.0
Corey Bradford 02	106	-13.5
Joey Galloway 06	141	-13.6
Plaxico Burress 05	166	-13.8
Darrell Jackson 07	104	-13.8
Peerless Price 04	106	-13.8
Muhsin Muhammad 05	136	-14.2
Peerless Price 03	141	-14.6
Greg Jennings 06	105	-17.0
Az Hakim 03	108	-17.6
Amani Toomer 03	152	-17.7
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-19.6
Raghib Ismail 01	134	-20.1
Chris Chambers 06	153	-30.6

The end of Randy Moss' stay in Oakland gives us our first member of both the top and bottom lists. Moss' isn't much of a puzzle, while Laveranues Coles takes a bit more digging. The stats show a pretty big usage shift between the two seasons, going from running slightly deeper than average routes to some of the shortest routes in the sample. This raised the bar for his catch% considerably, but isn't the full story since his catch% actually dropped running the shorter routes in 2004. Going outside the spreadsheet to PFR shows a massive difference between those two years. They were played on different teams. 2002 was played for the Jets with Chad Pennington before multiple shoulder injuries and surgeries took his arm strength from weak to a punchline. 2004 was played with the Redskins catching (or not catching) passes from a Mark Brunell/Patrick Ramsey combo that completed just 56% of their passes, sported a passer rating of 70 and just 3.7 ANY/A (for a ANY/A comparison, only 1 of Joey Harrington's 4 seasons with the Lions was worse). An example like this gives you two things to consider when looking at these stats, outside factors that can effect the results. QB Play, a drop in QB play of 35 points in QB rating seems like it would effect a WRs production. Usage is the other, as some guys are better suited to get deep than sit short and vise versa. Coles seems to be the first type having his best hands season running the deepest routes of his career in 2002, and his worst running his shortest routes in 2004.

So by removing the YAC in order to clear up the relationship the hands stats clearly don't represent everything about a WRs performance. An intuitive way to remedy this is to add the YAC back in once the depth of routes has been accounted for. Receptions over average times the sample average AirYards per catch gives how many more AirYards the WR was worth than the average WR with 50+ targets. Adding the YAC over the sample average gives how many yards overall the WR was worth compared to the average WR with 50+ receptions from 2001-2008.

Or in harder to understand terms

((-.123*Ln((Yards-YAC)/Comp) + .8441) - Catch%) * Targets) * (sample average AirYards per Reception + (YAC/C - sample average YAC)) = Yards Over Average

With the numbers in place for the sample averages

((-.123*Ln((Yards-YAC)/Comp) + .8441) - Catch%) * Targets) * (9.563 + (YAC/Comp - 3.99)) = Yards Over Average

Top 20 Yards over Average

Player	Rec Over Ave	YAC/C	YOA
Marvin Harrison 02	24.9	3.2	219
Wes Welker 07	17.6	5.7	198
Andre Johnson 08	18.4	4.3	181
Derrick Mason 03	21.1	2.9	179
Torry Holt 04	19.8	3.3	175
Steve Smith 05	13.0	7.9	175
Troy Brown 01	16.0	5.0	169
Reggie Wayne 07	17.7	3.9	167
Hines Ward 02	16.2	4.5	164
Marvin Harrison 01	16.2	4.4	161
Hines Ward 04	15.1	5.0	160
Randy Moss 03	16.0	4.0	153
Torry Holt 03	17.1	3.2	150
Bobby Engram 07	15.6	4.0	149
Troy Brown 02	14.6	4.3	144
Reggie Wayne 04	14.7	4.0	141
Laveranues Coles 02	14.0	4.1	136
Marques Colston 07	13.6	4.1	132
Marvin Harrison 03	14.4	3.5	131
Marvin Harrison 06	14.0	3.2	123

Marv again dominates, with good showings from Holt, Ward, Wayne and Troy Brown in addition to various single seasons from several talented #1 WRs.

Bottom 20 Yards over Average

... is currently unavailable since the way the formula is set up now, guys with negative hands ratings are penalized for above average YAC. So as of right now the formula is only valid for players with positive receptions over average. The formula is listed above for anyone that wants to suggest ways to expand it to the bottom half. Tying the YAC to receptions instead of receptions over average makes the formula ultra YAC heavy, and the absolute value for the Rec over Average rewards guys with worse hands over less below average catchers.

Famous Sports Press Conference Moments, in Autotune Hip-Hop form. Featuring Allen Iverson, Jim...

shake n bake — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 05:12:29 -0000

Famous Sports Press Conference Moments, in Autotune Hip-Hop form.

Featuring Allen Iverson, Jim Mora, Dennis Green, Mike Gundy, Joe Namath and Terrell Owens.

(via KSK)

Anthony Gonzalez and Wide Reciever Stats, Part 2

shake n bake — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 05:26:59 -0000

I explained how Catch% and YPR are very important tools for evaluating WRs and showed Anthony Gonzalez's success in both in part 1. Now I'll expand on the relationship between the two, and what it can tell us about WR performance.

YPR isn't a perfect measure of how deep a WR is catching the ball. A 15 yard pass could be a pass caught 3 yards deep and run for 12 more yards, or it could be a pass caught 15 yards deep with no YAC, or anything between. Since not all WRs are equally good at running after the catch, and certain routes allow for different amounts of YAC, YPR isn't the best measure of how deep a WR is catching the ball.

Luckily some places WR YAC is kept, allowing a calculation of the average depth a WR caught the ball. This should be the best measure of WR usage available without going through play by play.

There were 168 player-seasons with 50+ targets the last two years. Among these 168 their AirYPR and Catch% had a r squared value (the percent of the variance in Catch% accounted for by AirYPR) of .16 , meaning that 16% of the variation in catch% can be accounted for by YPR. That is a small correlation, but it is significant, especially when considering that it doesn't account for WR skill, defense ability or QB skill. The average depth a WR catches the ball at, accounts for 16% of the variation in the percent of the time he catches the ball. To relate this level of relatedness, this is a similar correlation to team wins vs Offensive Yards Per Carry and team wins vs team penalties (or more accurately, since the correlation for penalties is negative, team losses and penalties).

Just like committing penalties is a significant factor is losing games and running for a good YPC is related to winning, a WRs AirYPR is related to his Catch%.

So there's a solid relation between the two. Now the useful part. Mgrex03 lent me a hand to use a logarithmic regression instead of the a straight linear one I used before. Average AirAPR was 9.18 and average catch% was 58.8%. Combining these two with the logarithmic regression gives a formula for the catch% of an average receiver for a given AirYPR. We can compare this to the WRs actual catch% for a measure of how well a WR catches the football.

It's not an overall metric of WRs because YAC is excluded. A WR's job breaks down into Getting Open, Catching the Football and Running after the Catch. This covers none of the run after, pretty much all of the catching and some elements of getting open (more room to catch raising catch%). As a alternative to the rate stat, there's Receptions over Average, the WR's receptions minus (the expected catch% for his AirYPR muliplied by his targets). Giving how many more or less catches the player had compared to what would be expected for an average WR with the player's number of targets.

And now the results

Full spreadsheet here (download)

Top 10 Catch% over average

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Ike Hilliard 08	58	+17.8%
Anthony Gonzalez 07	51	+16.2%
Jabar Gaffney 07	50	+13.1%
Gonzalez 08	57	+12.4%
Andre Johnson 07	86	+12.3%
Steve Breaston 08	113	+10.6%
Josh Reed 08	79	+10.3%
Bobby Engram 07	134	+10.3%
Wes Welker 07	145	+10.3%
Reggie Wayne 07	156	+10.3%

Bottom 10 Catch% over Average

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Marty Booker 07	105	-11.7%
Jerry Porter 07	102	-12.1%
Ted Ginn Jr. 08	71	-13.6%
Darrell Jackson 07	104	-14.5%
Drew Bennett 07	73	-14.8%
Justin McCareins 08	73	-14.9%
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-15.2%
Keary Colbert 07	69	-15.6%
Roy Williams 08	82	-16.0%
Brad Smith 07	67	-16.5%

Top 10 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Andre Johnson 08	170	+16.4
Wayne 07	156	+16.0
Welker 07	145	+15.0
Engram 07	134	+13.9
Breaston 08	113	+12.0
Colston 07	144	+11.8
Randy Moss 07	160	+10.8
Royal 08	129	+10.7
Mason08	58	+10.6
Andre Johnson 07	150	+10.6

Bottom 10 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Keary Colbert	69	-10.4
Arnaz Battle 07	104	-10.8
Drew Bennett	73	-10.8
Justin McCariens 08	73	-10.8
Brad Smith	67	-11.1
Marty Booker 07	105	-12.3
Jerry Porter 07	102	-12.3
Roy Williams 08	82	-13.1
Darrell Jackson 07	104	-15.1
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-21.0

The All-AFC South Roster

shake n bake — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 01:51:34 -0000

With the division "bloggers" over at ESPN.com digging into their bag of gimmicks, listing top 10 "building blocks" (players you'd choose if your goal was to contend for a title over the next 3 years) I set out to expand on their concept. Building an All-AFC South cast of starters, and now a 45 man gameday-roster that fits under the cap (with room to spare for the inactives).

QB: Still gotta have Peyton Manning (14mil), he's expensive, but the best QB in the league is worth it. On the principal that it's better to go out with a bang than a whimper my backup is the newly signed Rex Grossman (620k) In a league where Jim Sorgi, Cleo Lemon and Dan Orlosky make 1.3, 2.8 and 3.1 million a year, respectively, a QB who has had even short term success as a starter is a great deal for the league minimum.

RB: I chose MJD for the All-AFC South starters, but his new contract extension makes him 3 times more expensive than Chris Johnson or Joseph Addai, and the price of 5 Steve Slatons. MJD isn't THAT much better than the other 3, not by a longshot. So with MJD out in a cost cutting move, I'll pass up my former draft crush and the back I've fiercely defended for the last year, for Steve Slaton (552K). Slaton is the cheapest, was a better receiver than Johnson and weathered a workload that broke Addai down in 2007. The main hole is Slaton's game is as a pass blocker. Where could we find a tandem partner who can pass block? Joseph Addai (1.67mil), and I've got the cash, so let's grab all 3 starting backs still on their rookie deals, Chris Johnson (1.79mil)

WR: I was able to save on the backs, but there isn't cheap talent near the levels of Andre Johnson (7.2mil) and Reggie Wayne (6.96mil), Anthony Gonzalez is a great 3rd WR for relatively little (1.31mil), Kevin Walter (2mil) averaged 15 yards a catch while catchin 63% of his targets last year, both solidly above average.

TE: I'm all about the passing offense, meaning I'll lay down the nearly 10million for the two best TEs in the division. Dallas Clark (6.77mil), and Owen Daniels (2.79mil), A blocking TE and possible FB Gijon Robinson at the league minimum (385K) to fill out the TEs.

LT: 5.88mil isn't much to pay for my first choice of left tackles, Michael Roos. To backup I'll take a project tackle for 1.6mil, Duane Brown.

LG: My first choice of left guards comes pretty cheap at 1.2 million, Eugene Amano. Backing up will be a solid guard who can swing outside, Charlie Johnson (556K).

C: Jeff Saturday's new deal costs just 3.98mil this year. 396k for Jamey Richard, the only other center Peyton's taken real game snaps from in years.

RG: Jake Scott 4.5mil, I didn't really want to spend at guard but the cheaper options are either coming off major injuries or aren't proven. To get guard value out of this pool laying out the cash for Scott is the surest way. I'll back him up with a 16 game starter at guard last year for a vet minimum deal Mike Brisiel (460K).

RT: All four AFC South starting right tackles cost between 4 and 6 million, so I'm making a position change, Tony Ugoh (941K). Ugoh is a powerful run blocker, who would now have much less pressure on him in pass pro.

DEs: Pass Pressure is VITAL and Mario Williams comes remarkably cheap this year at 2.65million allowing for splurging on Dwight Freeney (11.2mil), and Robert Mathis (6.86mil), Dave Ball (620K) is a cheap combo of size and pass rushing ability.

DTs: A 3 man team of undersized pass rushing DTs comes pretty cheap. Tony Brown (1.4mil), Eric Foster (385k), Jason Jones (761K) For some size and massive upside I'll take Amobi Okoye to rebound for (3.12mil), and round out the DTs with Antonio Johnson for some safe league minimum (385k) beef.

LBs: Can't run a Tampa-2 without a top cover MLB, Gary Brackett (3.08mil), DeMeco Ryans is more than worth the 1.4mil price tag to slide to the strongside, on the weakside Clint Session comes dirt cheap at 552K, Xavier Adibi (498K) was a favorite prospect of mine and is working his way into the Texans lineup as a cover LB, I'll round out the LBs with some size and run D from Phillip Wheeler (546K) and Zach Diles (474K)

CB: Cortland Finnegan is an easy choice for just 3.65mil, Kelvin Hayden at 6.68mil is fine for a young talented corner. Marlin Jackson will hold down the slot for 2.76mil. For a backup Fred Bennett has great upside for only 460K

FS: Antoine Bethea or Michael Griffin? Bethea or Griffin? How about both since Bethea comes cheap (552K), Griffin isn't too expensive for a Pro Bowl safety (2.2mil) and both have played as nickel corners.

SS: Gotta have Bob. Sanders costs 6.13mil, but is an All Pro lock and DPOY threat when he makes it through a season healthy. I'll back him up with a starting caliber safety and dynamite special teamer making the slightest bit above the veteran minimum (462K) Melvin Bullitt

K: Kris Brown has nearly the leg of Bironas (my choice when money was no object), and makes half as much (1.35mil)

P: 1.25mil for Matt Turk isn't too much ... I guess.

RET: T.J. Rushing (535K) with Chris Carr out of the division, André Davis' price tag over 4 million and the Jags return games more than a TD below average with Brian Witherspoon having taken over returning from MJD, T.J. is the best bet, even with last year a lost season due to a knee injury.

Total Cap Cost: 124mil (09 cap is 128)

Thanks to Tim at BattleRedBlog for tips on a few cheap useful Texans.

The McDaniels disaster continues. Broncos to trade Brandon Marshall

shake n bake — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:44:52 -0000

The McDaniels disaster continues. Broncos to trade Brandon Marshall

McDaniels has taken a team with a potent offense, but in need of a defensive retooling, and gone to full rebuild mode.

Past News: Ed Johnson suspended for season opener

shake n bake — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 19:12:12 -0000

Past News: Ed Johnson suspended for season opener

The league announced in April, before his re-signing with the Colts that Ed Johnson would be suspended one game for his violation of the league's substance abuse policy.

Anthony Gonzalez and Wide Reciever Stats

shake n bake — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 21:09:33 -0000

WR	Rec	Yards	TDs
A	59	1,098	7
B	104	1,265	6
C	111	1,165	5
D	69	1,052	10

Which wide receiver had the best season last year?

"C" had the most receptions, "B" the most yards, "D" caught more touchdowns, and "A" was pretty good all-around.

Pick one and JUMP

Welcome. Now that you've picked the WR you think had the best season, how would your view change if you knew that the yardage leader (B) was thrown 181 passes in that season, most in the league, while C was thrown at 150 times, D was targeted only 139 times, and A just 100.

If you thought "B" was better than "C", are you reconsidering due to "B" turning 31 more targets into less receptions and only 100 more yards? Do the solid, but not outstanding numbers from "A" look a lot better considering he need just 100 passes thrown to him to reach them?

Catching the football is a key task for a wide receiver. The normal way of looking at receiver lines largely misses this. Here are the lines again with the number of passes thrown taken into account.

WR	Rec	Catch%	Yards	TDs
A	59	59	1,098	7
B	104	57	1,265	6
C	111	75	1,165	5
D	69	50	1,052	10

Catch% shows how "C" had more receptions with 31 less targets and helps show how "A" kept in the picture with by far the least targets.

"C" stands out pretty dramatically, almost like he's playing a different game than the other 3. He is to an extent, as a more conventional, but usually glazed over stat shows.

WR	Rec	Yards	Y/Rec	TDs
A	59	1,098	18.6	7
B	104	1,265	12.2	6
C	111	1,165	10.5	5
D	69	1,052	15.2	10

It's pretty clear that "A and "C" are playing WR differently. "A" is gaining nearly twice as many yards per catch. As we saw above "A" and "D" are also catching the ball significantly less often. These two are no coincidence. A 10 yard pass is harder to complete than a 20 yard pass. A and D were working as deep threats, while B and C are working much shallower routes (median* WR YPR last year was 12.6)

*=much, much quicker to find median on NFL.com's WR stat rankings, than to calculate the mean, 12.6 is in-line with the previous year means I remember from reading a PFR project on WRs.

We can use both the YPR and Catch % to a get a picture of a WRs usage/style and his ability.

	High YPR	Low YPR
High Catch%	Great WR	Possession WR
Low Catch%	Deep Threat	Bad WR

So WR A has a pretty average Catch % and a excellent YPR.

B was slightly below average in both

C was the picture of a possession WR with a tiny YPC, but great Catch%

D was way below average in catch%, while running a bit deeper than usual routes.

One last time, who do you think had the best season?

WR A is Vincent Jackson
WR B is Brandon Marshall
WR C is Wes Welker
WR D is Terrell Owens

Finally we get to the other half of the title. Anthony Gonzalez will be stepping into the #2 WR role. I'll be tough to match the 88-87 duo, but Anthony Gonzalez has shown a lot these past two seasons in his limited role.

Gonzo has recorded an average to above average YPR of 13.2, with an outstanding Catch% of 72% the last two years. Only Wes Welker and Ike Hilliard have topped his catch% over that time, and both had YPR's of just 10.5. Anthony Gonzalez has shown a rare ability to catch passes at a far greater than usual rate, while not running shorter than usual routes. This is an excellent sign for his future as he expands into a full time #2 WR.

AFC South "Building Block" Team

shake n bake — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 22:34:38 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

The top QB and C in the AFC South (and the league) (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

The division "bloggers" over at ESPN.com are digging into the bag of gimmicks, listing top 10 "building blocks" (players you'd choose if your goal was to contend for a title over the next 3 years). I don't hate Kuharsky's AFC South list so instead of re-doing it I'll do an expanded version. An entire team for the AFC South. Two versions even. An All-AFC South cast of starters, and this weekend a 53 man roster that fits under the cap.

I'll be running a Colts style offense and defense, because that's what I like and it should give plausible cover for any homer picks.

QB Peyton Manning (IND) Obvious choice here. The other QBs in the division are older and inferior, barely younger and inferior, and significantly younger but fragile and inferior.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC) 4 excellent backs in the AFC South. MJD wins out over Slaton and Chris Johnson via his outstanding receiving and blocking skills, and his health (though in a lesser workload) gives him the edge over Addai

WR Andre Johnson (HOU), Reggie Wayne (IND) An easy choice again. Two perennial Pro Bowlers

TE/WR Dallas Clark (IND) A TE/WR hybrid takes the place of fullback in a league that's phasing out the brusing lead blockers. Clark is the clear choice for a TE that can play the slot or even split out wide.

TE Owen Daniels (HOU) With Clark stashed away in the hybrid role, the Texans young star TE is the clear choice coming off a 70 catch, 862 yard season.

LT: Michael Roos (TEN) Finally a bit of love for the Titans. The only clearly estabished LT in the division with Ugoh and Duane Brown young inconsistent players and the Jags using a free agent stopgap until their rookie tackles are ready.

LG:Eugene Amano (TEN) The real stars of the Titans offense were the O linemen. What else could possibly explain LenDale White being able to run for positive yardage?

C: Jeff Saturday (IND) A pair of injuries prevented Saturday from a 4th straight Pro Bowl and very likely a 3rd All Pro in 4 years this past year. Saturday gets the nod over the other contender Kevin Mawae by virtue of being 4 years younger and having beaten Mawae out for a Pro Bowl spot each of the previous 3 years.

RG: Jake Scott (TEN) Not a lot of competition with the Titans OL since the Colts and Jaguars interior linemen couldn't stay healthy.

RT: Tony Pashos (JAX) The Jags were among the best in the league running behind right tackle. I've seen Texans RT Eric Winston getting some love, but the Texans were just mediocre running behind him and FO's game charters tagged him with 7 sacks last year, 2nd worst among RTs.

LE: Mario Williams (HOU) No surprises on the DEs as the AFC South took all 3 of the conferences DE Pro Bowl bids.

DT: Tony Brown (TEN) Suddenly the AFC South isn't looking so strong at DT with Albert Haynesworth lured to Washington by the scent of fresh cash, youth sensation Amobi Okoye hitting a major sophomore slump and John Henderson a very large man on the wrong side of 30, injured and feuding with the coaching staff.

DT: Eric Foster (IND) As a 265lb undrafted rookie Foster stepped in and because Indy's starting nosetackle. Despite being hopelessly outsized at NT with an even smaller tackle beside him, Foster made plays and helped hold together an Indy run D, that as we've seen in 2006, could be much much worse.

RE: Dwight Freeney (IND) Still the top pass rusher in the league, he's full recovered from the season ending foot injury, though it will prevent him from playing on offense.

SLB: DeMeco Ryans (HOU) A prolific young tackler moved out to hold down the strong side.

MLB: Gary Brackett (IND) You would struggle to find a LB in the entire league, let alone the division to cover the gap down the middle of the Cover-2 better than Brackett.

WLB: Daryl Smith (JAC) The only starting OLB in the division under 30, with more than 1 year of starting experience.

CB: Cortland Finnegan (TEN), Kelvin Hayden (IND), The #1 CBs on the two best Pass Ds in the division.

SS: Bob Sanders (IND), Last year was an injured year, so now I can expect a healthy Sanders for my franchise's 1st and 3rd season.

FS: Antoine Bethea (IND), 3 talented young free safeties in the division. All three started their rookie years, the difference, Bethea made the Pro Bowl in his first two years, while Nelson and Griffen are going into year 3 without a Hawaiian vacation on the resume.

Update: Michael Griffin made the Pro Bowl last year, but it wasn't listed on PFR. I will consider arguments for him replacing Bethea.

K: Rob Bironas (TEN), My view of kickers is probably unusual (and mostly confined to FO readers). There is no clutch, and further, for NFL caliber kickers, accuracy is pretty much even across the board, with the variation in FG% mostly due to chance and different proportions of long vs short FG attempts. So with this view of kickers, the obvious choice is the biggest leg who has proven to have NFL quality accuracy. Bironas was tops in the AFC in kickoff distance the last two years, and only the legendary Seabass topped him in touchbacks over the last two seasons.

P: Matt Turk (HOU), Had a dip in his usually outstanding net average, but still doing an excellent job of pinning teams deep with a high ratio of inside20's to touchbacks.

A full roster with Salary cap in effect coming this weekend.

2003 WP Graphs added, MNF 21 point comeback included

shake n bake — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:55:56 -0000

2003 WP Graphs added, MNF 21 point comeback included

The Colts had a win probability over .5 four minutes into the 1st quarter, and didn't reach that mark again until they blocked the 62 yard game winning FG to end regulation.

The Colts WP dipped below 15% 10 minutes into the game and didn't pass that mark until a 50 yard strike to Marvin Harrison in the final two minutes. Meaning that for 47 consecutive minutes the Colts had a less than 15% chance of winning the game.