SB Nation User Blog: shake n bake

Lets Go Hawks

shake n bake — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:03:54 -0000

Lets Go Hawks

-shake

Bill Simmons is still a Colts hating homer

shake n bake — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 20:24:14 -0000

From his picks column

Ravens (+4.5) over COLTS
The '08 Colts are like Amy Winehouse -- they look awful and it should have ended by now.

You mean the Colts team that has won one less game against a harder schedule than your Pats.

The team that lost the player that a Pats homer would call the best in the league is better off than a team that went .500 with a makeshift line that is now nearly healthy. A team who's other HOF talent is a danger to quit on his team every week now is much better off to a team who will get Bob Sanders and their last remaining missing O-lineman back for the second half of the season.

The team that is suppose to be carried by the defense that is ranking in the bottom 8 in defensive DVOA is way better off than the team who's defense is playing better and offense is nearly intact for the first time all season.

At the start of the season who was better Colts or Pats was an agrument. Now without Brady any rational Pats fan must admit the Colts are a better team or than Brady isn't that good and wasn't that important to their success.

As long as Peyon is playing and Brady is not the Colts will win more games than the Patriots this season, I guarantee it.

Friday Injury Report (Week 6)

shake n bake — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 19:45:37 -0000

Out: Kelvin Hayden, Roy Hall, Bob Sanders

Questionable (all practiced today): Dwight Freeney, Anthony Gonzalez, Marlin Jackson, Clint Sessions, Jamey Richards.

Marlin Jackson and Anthony Gonzalez got two days of practice in this week. Marlin should be good to go, but Gonzalez is a question mark since his injury is a concussion. Gonzalez can run and catch fine, but it's up to the trainers whether he's ready to take hits again.

The word on Freeney all week is that he's expected to play and him finally getting back to practice is a confidence booster.

Richards also got two days of practice in but they were split by him missing Thursday with a shoulder injury. He may start if Ugoh sits out again like is being reported he will.

link

Ravens injury report

Week 6 picks

shake n bake — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:33:31 -0000

Picks and record are straight up. The against the spread contest (which I'm winning) is mgrex03's project.

Week 1: 10-6, Week 2: 10-5, Week 3: 11-5, Week 4: 6-7, Week 5: 9-5 total 46-28 (62.2%)

46 correct puts me dead center of the panel of experts from Mgrex30's list

On to week 6

Chicago over Atlanta, Matt Ryan yo-yo's back down against a excellent defense.

Texans over Dolphins beating one AFC favorite is a fluke, beating two in 5 weeks means there's something to this team. The Texans are in the bottom 4 of FO's rankings while the Dolpnins are 10th. So why am I taking the Texans? Because I did in the spread contest for a reason I can't remember and those picks have done quite well.

Colts over Ravens, Run D needs to step up or Le'ron McClain will go Ron Dayne on us.

Vikings over Lions, When your offense is stopped by the Saints you are officially no longer a SB contender. The Lions are awful though. How awful are they? They are the worst defense FO has ever measured through 5 games and the 5th worst team through 5 games (would be fourth but the Rams are outsucking them this year).

Saints over Raiders, Reggie Bush almost single handedly beat the Vikings, he should be enough to beat the Raiders, providing the gameplan is smart enough not to send Bush up the middle.

Jets over Bengals, trade rumors surrounding TJ Houshmanzedeh. I don't believe them, if the Bengals wouldn't trade their pissed off headcase WR they sure as hell won't let a similarly talented but sane WR go.

Bucs over Panthers, "Oooh the Panthers looked good last week and the Bucs lost." Remember the opponents. The Cheifs are bad enough to be the worst team in the league most years, but are saved by the historic ineptitude of the Rams and Lions. The Broncos have defensive issues, but are a still a very good team.

Redskins over Rams, speak of the crime against football, it's the Rams. I took the Rams+13.5 because that's too big of a number for any professional team, but the Rams are just wretched. Can I has Adam Carriker? You guys don't seem to be needing him.

Broncos over Jags, the Jags shouldn't have even been able to stick with the Steelers, but dumb fouls by the Steelers and a bad PI call kept them in it. They aren't very good. If you let them stick around they can beat you, but they are a team that should be burried by a top team before the final minutes arrive.

Cowboys over Cardinals, I don't get the Cards. They get slaughtered by the Jets, then crush the Bills. Is it as simple as Kurt Warner and his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day?

Eagles over Niners, Without Westbrook that offense is cribbled. I don't think there is another non-QB in the league who's loss kills an offense as much as Westbrook.

Packers over Seahawks, I know the Pack have dropped 3 straight, but at least two of those teams are good and Seattle has been awful. How are the Seahawks favored? The people who make the lines are smarter than I am so when this one (and GB+2.5) loses I'll just have to kick myself for not being able to pass up a pick that's too good to be true.

Chargers over Pats, what was suppose to be a battle for AFC dominance is now a game between two teams that lost to Miami in the last 3 weeks.

Giants over Browns, did you hear Brady Quinn endorsed John McCain for president. You'd think that Quinn would disagree with some of McCain's stances on "Social Issues."

Yes, "Brady Quinn is gay" jokes are more interesting than anything about this game. No, this is not an invitation to talk politics.

Thursday Injury Update (week 6)

shake n bake — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 20:58:47 -0000

Back at Practice: Anthony Gonzalez (concussion), Marlin Jackson (ankle) and Robert Mathis (day off)

Still Out: Bob Sanders (knee), Roy Hall (knee), Kelvin Hayden (knee), Dwight Freeney (hamstring), and Clint Sessions (Calf) sat out for a second straight day.

New additions: Jamey Richard (shoulder) and Tim Jennings (not injury related), both missed practice.

Colts Injury Report

Ryan (Lilja) is not eligible to come back (off the Physically Unable to Perform list) until the...

shake n bake — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 00:45:51 -0000

Ryan (Lilja) is not eligible to come back (off the Physically Unable to Perform list) until the (October 19) Green Bay game and my guess right now is he has been out so long that it’s probably going to take a little longer than that to get him back and in shape and in position to play. I would say he’s probably three or four weeks away at this point.

The Polian Corner

Wednesday Injury Report (week 6)

shake n bake — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 21:16:16 -0000

We all should have known that it wouldn't be two weeks in a row with the team in good health. 8 players missed practice today, 7 without Robert Mathis who's absence was "not injury related."

Bob Sanders and Roy Hall remain out with knee injuries, but Federkiel is back at practice.

The six new additions to the report are Dwight Freeney (hamstring), Anthony Gonzalez (concussion), Kelvin Hayden (knee), Marlin Jackson (ankle) and Clint Sessions (calf).

Sanders is the only one of the eight sure to miss Sunday's game, but 6 starters missing practice including both starting corners is clearly a bad thing. Hopefully all the injuries are minor and not only will they play Sunday they'll practice tomorrow so we don't have to sweat it out with visions of Tim Jennings, #1 CB.

Update ESPN1070's blog is reporting Hayden will not play and Charlie Johnson will likely start over Ugoh again as Ugoh recovers from his groin injury, (Thanks to Peytonsthebest for the link)

Forsett and Hillard cut, CBs Graham and Ratliff added.

shake n bake — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:49:35 -0000

Forsett and Hillard cut, CBs Graham and Ratliff added.

HB/Returner Justin Forsett was cut today to make room for another cornerback (tip to AussieColtsfan). OT Corey Hillard is also missing from the Colts.com roster and was replaced by CB Keiwan Ratliff. Adding two CBs makes me nervous about Hayden's status for Sunday. I'll have the injury report later today.

Pierre Garcon is now listed as the Colts KR/PR

Finally, our old pre-draft friend, rookie DE Rudolph Hardie was signed to the Packers practice squad.

Eli Manning has not started his career better than Peyton

shake n bake — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:11:30 -0000

Eli Manning has been playing well. Great for him, I root for him and him stepping up his play prevented the 19-0 apocalypse and gave us the gift of 18-1. Unfortunately whenever a guy is doing well the media starts with the hyperbole. TMQ made the claim that Eli has been better through the corresponding part Peyton's career. There is a problem with this.

You have to compare the Mannings apples to apples. Peyton started from day one of his rookie year. Eli didn't start until week 11. Here are their passing stats from season 2 through 4 games into season 5.

Peyton 1118-1789 62.5% 13,675 93 57
Eli 976-1740 56.1% 11,374 77 56

yards per attempt Peyton 7.64 to Eli 6.54
yards per completion Peyton 12.2 to Eli 11.7
INT% Peyton 5.1% to Eli 5.7%

Peyton was significantly better in every category. Peyton had an awful start to his career. Peyton threw 18 picks and completed over 60% of his passes once in the first 9 games, Eli rode the bench through that stage of his career.

Apples to apples, Eli learned on the bench while Peyton was thrown to the wolves. If you want to compare their careers you have to do it over points of their careers where they both actually played.

(tip to DZ and FO for linking the TMQ piece)

DVOA on the Colts

shake n bake — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:15:56 -0000

Football Outsiders is by far my favorite site for NFL wide info. Just great stuff. After 5 weeks and at least 4 games for every team stats start to make some sense. Here is what FO's DVOA ratings think of the Colts start (and remember that it doesn't adjust for injuries or the return of injured players):

The Colts are ranked 24th overall, 12th on offense, 23rd on defense and 27th on special teams.

What, you thought the Colts special teams were fixed?

They were, in a way. Last year the Colts were last in the league in special teams DVOA so they improved overall. Not just that though. Both of the Colts kick coverage units have been above the league average. The Colts punt team is currently ranked 8th and has netted the team an extra 2.2 points over an average punt team. The kickoff team has saved the Colts nearly a point so far (0.9). Unfortunately those two are totally negated by the Colts being in the bottom five in kick returns. Below average (but not as bad as kick returns) performance on FGs and punt returns drag the Colts further down to their 27th ST ranking.

Losing TJ Rushing for the season has likely cost the Colts the chance to be above average in special teams for the first time in years.