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sharksrog

Mar 17, 2008 Dec 16, 2009 26 6877

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Trade Idea

 

I suspect this idea will get shot down from a LOT of directions, but here it is: 

How about Matt Cain and Edgar Renteria for Dustin 'Pedroia?

The Giants get the reigning AL MVP, and a guy who won it at age 24, at that.  They greatly improve their middle infield, save a lot of salary and have control of Pedroia through 2015, whereas Cain can leave after 2011.  They open up a spot for Madison Bumgarner -- or they don't think he's ready, Joey Martinez or Kevin Pucetas.

The Red Sox get a fabulous starter to replace the injured and seemingly not recovering Diasuke Matsuzaka, they get to move their shortstop Nick Green back to the second base position he is more familiar with, and they get an experienced shortstop in Renteria.

Would the Red Sox make the deal?  Would the Giants?  Should they?  I'm leaving myself really exposed on this one.  Have at it!



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Matt Cain and Rxmeister

Today is just another example of how the Giants have shown Matt Cain a horrible lack of run support and some cases such as this game, a lack of bullpen support.  Certainly Matt, who has been the most consistent of the Giants' fine starting rotation this season, pitched well enough to win -- and during the inning in which he was pinch hit for, finally received decent run support and seemed in great position for win #3 on the season, a win which would have brought his record to a perfect 3-0 after just four starts.

I mention Rxmeister because while he is one of the most knowledgeable posters anywhere, on another now-defunct Giants board got sucked up the thinking that Matt Cain can't hold a lead.  Today, of course, he didn't get that chance -- although he certainly kept the Giants in the game with his fine start, to the point where their three-run outburst in the eighth seemed guaranteed to provide him with another win.  But my research into Matt's career showed me two things:

First, Matt hasn't blown very many leads in his numerous losses and in fact has never blown one of more than two runs (although I'm going from memory here).  Most of the relatively few leads he has blown have been early in the game, which in theory should have given the Giants time to come back -- assuming they had any hitting, of course.  (Matt has received the second-worst run support of any starter not just in one season, but in each of the past two.)  Matt has never blown a lead after the sixth inning that resulted in his being charged with the loss.

Second, while Matt hasn't yet become the type of pitcher Giants fans perhaps incorrectly assumed he would be (at least not until this season to date), he has greatly improved the consistency of his pitching, beginning in late July, 2007.  That in theory should give him more opportunity for wins -- but once again that assumes the Giants get him runs.

Last season Tim Lincecum won 18 games; Matt, just seven.  And no question Tim outpitched Matt, fashioning an ERA that was over a run lower than Matt's.  But an even bigger problem for Matt -- who actually pitched well enough to have been expected to finish with a record slightly over .500 -- was that the Giants scored about a run and three-quarters less per nine innings more for Tim than they scored for Matt.

So those who think Matt can't hold a lead aren't very accurate in their perception, and those who don't think he has been consistent are ignoring the considerable improvement he has made in that area of the last year and three quarters (about a season and a half).

Last season Matt finished in the top 10 in the National League in quality starts.  Doesn't that demonstrate more than a modicum of consistency?  I believe that he finished in the top 10 (or perhaps just outside it) in 2007, as well -- although that was based on his phenomenal April and the consistency he developed late in July of that season.

Everyone here knows how much I love Tim Lincecum's pitching.  But in truth, Matt Cain is one of the most underrated starters in the game.  Now that he's finally getting some run support, he's beginning to show it.  If he had received better bullpen support today, he would have shown it even further.

151 comments  |  3 recs

A Fairley Poor Start

As I looked more deeply into Wendell Fairley's .138 start at Augusta this season, the picture got even worse.  (Fortunately, we're talking about only 29 at bats, so Wendell has plenty of time to reverse this situation.)

Not only has Wendell struck out 13 times in those 29 at bats, he has yet to hit a line drive.  Not one.  He has yet to beat out a ground ball or have one find a hole.

Wendell's four hits in those 29 at bats have come on the five fly balls he has hit.  My sense is that three of those four fly ball hits were balls that weren't hit hard, but merely fell in.

Why do I feel that way?  Only one of the four hits went for extra bases, a triple.  Clearly that ball was hit hard enough to get past the outfielders.  The other three?  With Wendell's speed, if they had been hit hard at all, wouldn't he have been able to convert them into at least doubles?

So it may be that in 29 at bats thus far this season, Wendell has hit the ball hard in fair territory only once.

Ouch!

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Mad Bum

I was blessed to be able to watch Madison Bumgarner's season debut in person and his second outing on TV.  I missed his third outing today entirely.

Mad Bum has an exceptional fastball.  Not an exceptionally fast one (he was consistently between 91 and 93 in the game I saw live, exceeding 94 only once or twice), but one that seems very hard to hit, perhaps due to his three-quarters delivery.

In that start, he didn't use his secondary pitches as much as I would have liked (since those are the pitches he needs to refine), but against the Dodgers late in spring training, he threw an awesome curve to strike out Juan Pierrre and a fine change up to fan Manny Ramirez on three pitches.  Bumgarner allowed just one hit while striking out four in that three-inning outing.

What is perhaps most impressive about Mad Bum is the way he pounds the strike zone for a southpaw power pitcher.  He has walked only two batters in 16 innings, and those two were consecutive.  Last season he walked a total of 21.

Although Barry Zito might have disproved me today with seven shutout innings, I think Mad Bum could pitch as well as Barry RIGHT NOW, even though Madison is still just 19 and will remain so through two-thirds of the season.

IMO if Madison Bumgarner remains healthy, he will go on to a fabulous career.

50 comments  |  0 recs

Wow!

Great control by Tim Lincecum today.  His velocity was still down a touch.  (Remember, two days ago he was out sick and was even examined for the possibility of a serious problem.)  But this might have been the best control he has shown.

Not sure of the exact number of strikes he threw in his 98 pitches, but I think it was right around 75.  His 13 strikeouts came on five curves, three fastballs, three change ups and two sliders.  Many of Tim's called balls seemed to just miss.

You no doubt saw Tim as quoted that his rhythm problem was caused by a lack of timing between his forward thrust and his back torque as he generates that thrust.  This was resulting in an inconsistent landing spot and also a lower release point, which can cause the fastball to sail sideways more and his curve to dive into the dirt.

Tim said he looked at video, which he has done nearly all his life but probably got away from now that he's in the majors.  Tim's dad told me Tim had figured it out or soon would.

I think we can safely say he had it figured out today.  One of the best starts of his career.  Probably his most efficient.  To have more strikeouts (13) than pitches per inning (12.1) is quite an accomplishment, particularly for a power pitcher.

Tim next pitches a week from today.  I think there is a chance the Giants will have scored again by that time.  :)

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Mad Bum Neither

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The Extreme Houdini Save

I mentioned in the post on Brian Wilson's far better performance when he had regular work that there are several different types of saves.  I listed five types, with the toughest one being when a pitcher entered the game with runners on second and third )or with the bases loaded) and no outs -- in a one-run game.

Now I see that Bill James has a name for such saves (although he limited his to bases loaded, not runners only on second and third).  He calls such saves Extreme Houdini saves.

One of the points I made in my previous post was that two- and especially three-run saves were easy saves that any decent pitcher should achieve a high percentage of the time.  But the Houdini saves are darn tough.

How tough?  So tough that there have been only eight Extreme Houdini saves since 1974 -- and none since 2000.

I think most relief pitchers in general and closers in particular would benefit from more regular work.  Wilson appears to be a prime candidate.  I think baseball is ripe for a re-examination of how closers are used.

If the Giants had used Brian Wilson on a strict schedule of no more than two days in a row and no more than two days between appearances, he would have missed out on only two of his 47 save opportunities last season.  That doesn't seem like much of a sacrifice to make, given that his ERA when used regularly was several runs lower than when he wasn't.

Let's see closers making more tough saves (and perhaps even the occasional Extreme Houdini) and fewer two- and especially three-run saves.  Sometimes the time when a true Houdini is needed is in an earlier inning -- when the bases might be loaded with no outs or one out.  Why not use the closer in such critical situations?

If the fire isn't doused in that particular situation, there most likely won't be a game for the closer to save later.  Saves are important.  Team wins are even more so.

Harry Houdini was at his best when his tricks were tough.  He proved his stuff by making escapes on one else could make -- not by making the routine ones.

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How Brian Wilson Regularly Pitches

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Small world

It

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Very Cool

The first-ever gathering of the McCovey Chronicles brethren and sisteren at the appropriately titled McCovey Chronicles' Restaurant at McCovey's Cove East was a rousing success -- at least for me.  What great people and great Giants fans I was permitted to meet.

After the event, appropriately capped by a Giant win after inappropriately being temporarily thrown off track by yet another Giants arsonist, I was able to spend time conversing with DeLorean and his wife, girlfriend, could I marry her if you ever get tired of her?

And naturally we talked about ... cars.  Turns out this lovely thing drives the exact same car I do.  Mazda.  MX 5 (aka Miata).  Charcoal. Black top.  I thought about telling DeLorean that he could just HAVE my car, and I would drive home with HER.

But I didn't, since I had spent the lovely evening sitting next to the delicious (offered me dessert -- no, not THAT kind, you lecherous thing, you), delightful, charming and talented Baron, sexily adorned in her finest McCovey Chronicles T-shirt.  Well, yeah, she was wearing pants, too.

Oh, and I brought my friend Jim, the only guy I know who looks as goofy as I.  He had never met ANYONE like the McCoven.  But then, neither had I.

So as I walked to my car, cursing myself for choosing it over DeLorean's prized possession, I ran into none other than Toothpick, so nicknamed by none other than Willie McCovey himself.  Toothpick, who was one of the two nice people who greeted us at the front door and helped us figure out why there was no reservation under the obvious name, "McCovey Chronicles" and under what name the actual reservation -- I was beginning to have some -- was made.

And Toothpick had the most wonderful suggestion for our next gathering, the one after they add "Chronicles" to the restaurant's name.  Hopefully that gathering will be soon and become maybe a twice-a-season-or-so event, perhaps even with a hot stove league session.  Toothpick suggested that we call ahead and ask if they would reserve the "McCovey Room" for us -- the one in the back where Willie himself eats when he visits, the one with the mementos under glass, right under your place mat.  The private room with the two TV's!  The one where we can scream our celebration of the inevitable Giants win without causing heart attacks among the startled patrons.

Toothpick said the McCovey Room has a two-hour limit, but that when we tell them that we ARE The McCovey Chronicles, they might be willing to waive it -- presumably if we promise them a Giants win!

Anyway, I just wanted to thank all involved for a WONDERFUL time.  It was really cool to meet all you fabulous people and CRAZY-mad fans.

Oh, I wanted to tell Baron and she and I would make a strange and wonderful couple, since I'm strange and she's wonderful.

And DeLorean, if you ever need help ...

And, no, Jim and I are not gay.

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