SB Nation User Blog: sharksrog

Trade Idea

sharksrog — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 02:20:20 -0000

I suspect this idea will get shot down from a LOT of directions, but here it is:

How about Matt Cain and Edgar Renteria for Dustin 'Pedroia?

The Giants get the reigning AL MVP, and a guy who won it at age 24, at that. They greatly improve their middle infield, save a lot of salary and have control of Pedroia through 2015, whereas Cain can leave after 2011. They open up a spot for Madison Bumgarner -- or they don't think he's ready, Joey Martinez or Kevin Pucetas.

The Red Sox get a fabulous starter to replace the injured and seemingly not recovering Diasuke Matsuzaka, they get to move their shortstop Nick Green back to the second base position he is more familiar with, and they get an experienced shortstop in Renteria.

Would the Red Sox make the deal? Would the Giants? Should they? I'm leaving myself really exposed on this one. Have at it!

Matt Cain and Rxmeister

sharksrog — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:17:44 -0000

Today is just another example of how the Giants have shown Matt Cain a horrible lack of run support and some cases such as this game, a lack of bullpen support. Certainly Matt, who has been the most consistent of the Giants' fine starting rotation this season, pitched well enough to win -- and during the inning in which he was pinch hit for, finally received decent run support and seemed in great position for win #3 on the season, a win which would have brought his record to a perfect 3-0 after just four starts.

I mention Rxmeister because while he is one of the most knowledgeable posters anywhere, on another now-defunct Giants board got sucked up the thinking that Matt Cain can't hold a lead. Today, of course, he didn't get that chance -- although he certainly kept the Giants in the game with his fine start, to the point where their three-run outburst in the eighth seemed guaranteed to provide him with another win. But my research into Matt's career showed me two things:

First, Matt hasn't blown very many leads in his numerous losses and in fact has never blown one of more than two runs (although I'm going from memory here). Most of the relatively few leads he has blown have been early in the game, which in theory should have given the Giants time to come back -- assuming they had any hitting, of course. (Matt has received the second-worst run support of any starter not just in one season, but in each of the past two.) Matt has never blown a lead after the sixth inning that resulted in his being charged with the loss.

Second, while Matt hasn't yet become the type of pitcher Giants fans perhaps incorrectly assumed he would be (at least not until this season to date), he has greatly improved the consistency of his pitching, beginning in late July, 2007. That in theory should give him more opportunity for wins -- but once again that assumes the Giants get him runs.

Last season Tim Lincecum won 18 games; Matt, just seven. And no question Tim outpitched Matt, fashioning an ERA that was over a run lower than Matt's. But an even bigger problem for Matt -- who actually pitched well enough to have been expected to finish with a record slightly over .500 -- was that the Giants scored about a run and three-quarters less per nine innings more for Tim than they scored for Matt.

So those who think Matt can't hold a lead aren't very accurate in their perception, and those who don't think he has been consistent are ignoring the considerable improvement he has made in that area of the last year and three quarters (about a season and a half).

Last season Matt finished in the top 10 in the National League in quality starts. Doesn't that demonstrate more than a modicum of consistency? I believe that he finished in the top 10 (or perhaps just outside it) in 2007, as well -- although that was based on his phenomenal April and the consistency he developed late in July of that season.

Everyone here knows how much I love Tim Lincecum's pitching. But in truth, Matt Cain is one of the most underrated starters in the game. Now that he's finally getting some run support, he's beginning to show it. If he had received better bullpen support today, he would have shown it even further.

A Fairley Poor Start

sharksrog — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:18:55 -0000

As I looked more deeply into Wendell Fairley's .138 start at Augusta this season, the picture got even worse. (Fortunately, we're talking about only 29 at bats, so Wendell has plenty of time to reverse this situation.)

Not only has Wendell struck out 13 times in those 29 at bats, he has yet to hit a line drive. Not one. He has yet to beat out a ground ball or have one find a hole.

Wendell's four hits in those 29 at bats have come on the five fly balls he has hit. My sense is that three of those four fly ball hits were balls that weren't hit hard, but merely fell in.

Why do I feel that way? Only one of the four hits went for extra bases, a triple. Clearly that ball was hit hard enough to get past the outfielders. The other three? With Wendell's speed, if they had been hit hard at all, wouldn't he have been able to convert them into at least doubles?

So it may be that in 29 at bats thus far this season, Wendell has hit the ball hard in fair territory only once.

Ouch!

Mad Bum

sharksrog — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 05:45:10 -0000

I was blessed to be able to watch Madison Bumgarner's season debut in person and his second outing on TV. I missed his third outing today entirely.

Mad Bum has an exceptional fastball. Not an exceptionally fast one (he was consistently between 91 and 93 in the game I saw live, exceeding 94 only once or twice), but one that seems very hard to hit, perhaps due to his three-quarters delivery.

In that start, he didn't use his secondary pitches as much as I would have liked (since those are the pitches he needs to refine), but against the Dodgers late in spring training, he threw an awesome curve to strike out Juan Pierrre and a fine change up to fan Manny Ramirez on three pitches. Bumgarner allowed just one hit while striking out four in that three-inning outing.

What is perhaps most impressive about Mad Bum is the way he pounds the strike zone for a southpaw power pitcher. He has walked only two batters in 16 innings, and those two were consecutive. Last season he walked a total of 21.

Although Barry Zito might have disproved me today with seven shutout innings, I think Mad Bum could pitch as well as Barry RIGHT NOW, even though Madison is still just 19 and will remain so through two-thirds of the season.

IMO if Madison Bumgarner remains healthy, he will go on to a fabulous career.

Wow!

sharksrog — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 22:39:40 -0000

Great control by Tim Lincecum today. His velocity was still down a touch. (Remember, two days ago he was out sick and was even examined for the possibility of a serious problem.) But this might have been the best control he has shown.

Not sure of the exact number of strikes he threw in his 98 pitches, but I think it was right around 75. His 13 strikeouts came on five curves, three fastballs, three change ups and two sliders. Many of Tim's called balls seemed to just miss.

You no doubt saw Tim as quoted that his rhythm problem was caused by a lack of timing between his forward thrust and his back torque as he generates that thrust. This was resulting in an inconsistent landing spot and also a lower release point, which can cause the fastball to sail sideways more and his curve to dive into the dirt.

Tim said he looked at video, which he has done nearly all his life but probably got away from now that he's in the majors. Tim's dad told me Tim had figured it out or soon would.

I think we can safely say he had it figured out today. One of the best starts of his career. Probably his most efficient. To have more strikeouts (13) than pitches per inning (12.1) is quite an accomplishment, particularly for a power pitcher.

Tim next pitches a week from today. I think there is a chance the Giants will have scored again by that time. :)

Mad Bum Neither

sharksrog — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 18:02:57 -0000

Got to see Madison Bumgarner's San Jose debut last night. Fabulous seats, and my son and I were two of three -- along with a long-time SJ Giants ticket holder who knew the pitching coach -- to be behind Buster Posey as he received Mad Bum's first warmup long-toss throw and one of perhaps eight or 10 who were beside Mad Bum when he made his first warmup throw off the bullpen mound.

Mad Bum got tremendous results (IIRC only two hits and a hit batsman in six innings with two double plays and a near-third). Only one ball was hit hard, and that was a line out to center fielder Darren (?) Ford. Four strikeouts in the first two innings, so he probably wound up with six or seven.

But I'm still not entirely sure of what to make of him, as he threw 80% or more fastballs. His secondary pitches (curve or slider and change up) seemed OK but not great. His control (no walks) was quite good, and he kept the ball down well and got it up around the letters or even shoulders with two strikes.

He threw in the 90's, but I don't remember his exceeding 94 (maybe a pitch or two at 95). He certainly didn't seem to have the electric stuff Tim Lincecum had there two and a half years ago, but the batters didn't hit it any better. And while Tim had already turned 22 back then, last night Mad Bum was only nine days past 19 1/2.

I'm not sure exactly how Mad Bum did such a great job of getting the Stockton Ports' hitters out, but he did. Mostly with the fastball. One low but over the plate curve ball got driven out of the park, but it was 30 degrees foul and never close to fair territory after it left the bat.

Nice movement away from right-handed hitters with that fastball, and hitters had a hard time laying off the pitch even at the letters and above, but I'm still not sure how he was so dominant.

Would that fastball play in the majors already? Well, apparently Manny Ramirez couldn't hit it (being among Bumgarner's four strikeouts in his three scoreless innings against the Dodgers in spring training). Unless the San Jose gun is three or four mph slow right now or Cal League hitters haven't yet caught up to a fastball above 90, I'm not sure he's doing it.

Facing Madison, all one really needs to do is look for the fastball, but apparently you can't hit it even if you're looking for it. I'm just not sure why. Perhaps it is the combination of speed, movement and very nice control. I guess his control and keeping most pitches down must be the key.

Mad Bum gave up a couple of weak popups on which he almost literally took the bat out of the hitters' hands. And he was able to induce a ground ball on each of the three occasions runners reached base. The third time he didn't achieve the double play only because the ball wasn't hit hard enough.

And he did show off his devastating pickoff move, failing to nail a runner breaking the wrong way only because his throw to Angel Villalona was shoulder high. Even then it was bang-bang.

And Angel immediately became my favorite San Jose Giants player. He looks both powerful and very much like a ball player, and even his hands looked soft to me. Good speed for such a big man, perhaps about the same level as Travis Ishikawa.

I think AnVil (a guy behind me was even calling him that) had three hits, but unlike his massive homer Thursday night, each was a bloop. But AnVil has closed his stance since I saw him on milb.com video last year, and he looks like a hitter (albeit one who can be fooled by the curve ball, even from a southpaw).

AnVil moved up from first to second very nicely on a short wild pitch, showing good instincts. The only thing I didn't like was that on a bloop he hit to right, he jogged to first while watching the ball and didn't begin to hustle until it fell in and skipped away from the fielder. Made it to second easily, though.

The Giants appear to be keeping the pressure off Angel, batting him seventh. Every hitter in their order except Darren Ford at leadoff and Michael Ambort batting eighth appears to have a legitimate shot at making the Giants. And aside from Thomas Neal, batting an extremely strong ninth in the order, each would seem to have a good shot at being a starter.

Foothill High's Brandon Crawford showed adequate speed for a shortstop and hit the night's only home run, just clearing the wall in right center. Ouch, that means it would have resulted in death in AT&T's Death Valley.

Nick Noonan made two errors in the same inning and was picked off first base (although he was safe on a funky throw to second). But he's batting third in a VERY strong batting order.

Buster Posey is batting cleanup, and failed to get the ball out of the infield. Buster drew one walk.

Getting back to Bumgarner, I have watched only the first inning of San Jose's Thursday night opener, but at this point I think Tim Alderson might be slightly closer to the bigs than the younger (by 10 months) Mad Bum. Tim threw three change ups in that first inning -- one for a ball, one for a swing-through and a followup change that was barely foul tipped.

Although Alderson's fastball doesn't compare with Mad Bum's for speed and particularly movement, his curve is of major-league quality. Seeing him for the first time in San Jose's playoff opener last September, I felt he was little more than a confident change up away from being able to pitch in the bigs.

Clearly Mad Bum has the far greater upside of the two, but Timmy Two might be ready a little quicker. Then again, hitters at no level have yet failed to be overpowered by Bumgarner -- apparently even the big league Dodgers ten days ago.

I'm not entirely sure how Mad Bum is so dominating. But the fact remains that he is.

The Extreme Houdini Save

sharksrog — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 19:31:40 -0000

I mentioned in the post on Brian Wilson's far better performance when he had regular work that there are several different types of saves. I listed five types, with the toughest one being when a pitcher entered the game with runners on second and third )or with the bases loaded) and no outs -- in a one-run game.

Now I see that Bill James has a name for such saves (although he limited his to bases loaded, not runners only on second and third). He calls such saves Extreme Houdini saves.

One of the points I made in my previous post was that two- and especially three-run saves were easy saves that any decent pitcher should achieve a high percentage of the time. But the Houdini saves are darn tough.

How tough? So tough that there have been only eight Extreme Houdini saves since 1974 -- and none since 2000.

I think most relief pitchers in general and closers in particular would benefit from more regular work. Wilson appears to be a prime candidate. I think baseball is ripe for a re-examination of how closers are used.

If the Giants had used Brian Wilson on a strict schedule of no more than two days in a row and no more than two days between appearances, he would have missed out on only two of his 47 save opportunities last season. That doesn't seem like much of a sacrifice to make, given that his ERA when used regularly was several runs lower than when he wasn't.

Let's see closers making more tough saves (and perhaps even the occasional Extreme Houdini) and fewer two- and especially three-run saves. Sometimes the time when a true Houdini is needed is in an earlier inning -- when the bases might be loaded with no outs or one out. Why not use the closer in such critical situations?

If the fire isn't doused in that particular situation, there most likely won't be a game for the closer to save later. Saves are important. Team wins are even more so.

Harry Houdini was at his best when his tricks were tough. He proved his stuff by making escapes on one else could make -- not by making the routine ones.

How Brian Wilson Regularly Pitches

sharksrog — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 20:23:29 -0000

Brian Wilson inspires strong emotions. Some think he is among the game's best closers, pointing to his being tied for second in the NL with 41 saves. Others point to the seven times he gave up multiple runs despite only once pitching beyond a single inning of any game, saying he is inconsistent.

Perhaps both are right -- with the reason being that he's being misused.

When Brian pitched every day or every other day, he yielded only 8 earned runs in 34.2 innings, an ERA of 2.08. He yielded runs in only 5 of his 35 such appearances.

When he pitched every third day or longer, Brian gave up 24 earned runs in 27.2 innings, a very generous ERA of 7.81. Brian yielded runs in 13 of 28 such appearances, pitching on the eighth day once and on the seventh five different times.

To make matters worse, the rust Brian showed after long periods between appearances seems to have carried over a bit into his second appearance after a long layoff. In such games, he yielded 10 earned runs in 19.0 innings for a 4.74 ERA.

Brian's being a bit of a Jeckyll and Hyde pitcher may have had to do with whether he had been given too much rest to stay sharp or had merely pitched enough to remain sharp without being over-rested. Brian never pitched more than three days in a row, and he did so only twice.

Overwork didn't appear to be a problem with Brian. Lack of work may have been.

Small world

sharksrog — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:23:10 -0000

It is sounding more and more as if Pablo Sandoval will be up no later than September. He just came off an 8-for-10 splurge, including a home run off a 24-year-old pitcher named Richie Lentz. Richie is a former teammate (at UW) and long-time friend of Tim Lincecum.

Here is a picture of the two of them. Oh, and Tim, get that darn WHITE SOX HAT OFF! :)

Here's a shot of Tim and Richie after college.

Very Cool

sharksrog — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 16:42:55 -0000

The first-ever gathering of the McCovey Chronicles brethren and sisteren at the appropriately titled McCovey Chronicles' Restaurant at McCovey's Cove East was a rousing success -- at least for me. What great people and great Giants fans I was permitted to meet.

After the event, appropriately capped by a Giant win after inappropriately being temporarily thrown off track by yet another Giants arsonist, I was able to spend time conversing with DeLorean and his wife, girlfriend, could I marry her if you ever get tired of her?

And naturally we talked about ... cars. Turns out this lovely thing drives the exact same car I do. Mazda. MX 5 (aka Miata). Charcoal. Black top. I thought about telling DeLorean that he could just HAVE my car, and I would drive home with HER.

But I didn't, since I had spent the lovely evening sitting next to the delicious (offered me dessert -- no, not THAT kind, you lecherous thing, you), delightful, charming and talented Baron, sexily adorned in her finest McCovey Chronicles T-shirt. Well, yeah, she was wearing pants, too.

Oh, and I brought my friend Jim, the only guy I know who looks as goofy as I. He had never met ANYONE like the McCoven. But then, neither had I.

So as I walked to my car, cursing myself for choosing it over DeLorean's prized possession, I ran into none other than Toothpick, so nicknamed by none other than Willie McCovey himself. Toothpick, who was one of the two nice people who greeted us at the front door and helped us figure out why there was no reservation under the obvious name, "McCovey Chronicles" and under what name the actual reservation -- I was beginning to have some -- was made.

And Toothpick had the most wonderful suggestion for our next gathering, the one after they add "Chronicles" to the restaurant's name. Hopefully that gathering will be soon and become maybe a twice-a-season-or-so event, perhaps even with a hot stove league session. Toothpick suggested that we call ahead and ask if they would reserve the "McCovey Room" for us -- the one in the back where Willie himself eats when he visits, the one with the mementos under glass, right under your place mat. The private room with the two TV's! The one where we can scream our celebration of the inevitable Giants win without causing heart attacks among the startled patrons.

Toothpick said the McCovey Room has a two-hour limit, but that when we tell them that we ARE The McCovey Chronicles, they might be willing to waive it -- presumably if we promise them a Giants win!

Anyway, I just wanted to thank all involved for a WONDERFUL time. It was really cool to meet all you fabulous people and CRAZY-mad fans.

Oh, I wanted to tell Baron and she and I would make a strange and wonderful couple, since I'm strange and she's wonderful.

And DeLorean, if you ever need help ...

And, no, Jim and I are not gay.