The first line is first 49 games of 2011 and the second is his first 49 games of 2012

210 PA .247/.329/.462 .791 OPS 11 DB, 1 TP, 9 HR 24 RBI, 20 walks 39 K's and 3 HBP

204 PA .249/.348/.376 .724 OPS 7 DB, 0 TP, 5 HR 20 RBI, 24 walks 47 K's and 4 HBP

The biggest differences of course is that he is hitting with less power AND striking out more. But the two batting lines overall are fairly similar. We know Justin can go on a power tear and hit a bunch of homers quickly to catch up to last year's pace. I'm not really worried about the homers. I am more than a little concerned over his K rate going back up. 18.9% at this stage last year, and 23% so far this year.

His overall contact rate is more or less the same so far as it was for the full season last year, which included all his good months too of course. But his contact rate on pitches IN the strike zone is lower than last years career high.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5222&position=OF#platediscipline

He's being pitched to mostly the same way. The breakdown of pitch types is almost identical to last year. But Justin has been struggling MUCH more with curveballs and changeups compared to last year. Damn Crafty lefties !

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5222&position=OF#pitchvalues

In fact, last year Justin struggled against lefties even more than righties in his first 49 games

.233/.365/.419 in 52 PA's with 2 HR

This year the early struggles vs. lefties are slightly worse

.233/.371/.314 in 62 PA's with 1 HR

So comparing last year's first 49 games with this years first 49 games for him is actually a little bit comforting, because he ended up with excellent overall numbers. BUT....of course this year the TEAM is doing much worse through the first 53 team games than last years team, (24-29 vs 29-24) so his early season struggles have hurt the team a lot more, especially since he couldn't get it in gear while CY was out. And lets be clear. His poor performance has HURT this team. They depend on him more than any other position player. They have a lot invested in him. He doesn't have to "carry" the team....but long periods of non productivity and mental lapses should be fading into the background of our distant memory, not persisting like they have been.

I think it's pretty clear that last nights "day off" was a benching due to poor effort, (or perceived poor effort, I don't really know) in Right Field the night before. Whether it was effort, lack of concentration, poor judgement, whatever, it was a craptastic performance in the field Friday night, and until he gets the bat going, he REALLY can't afford to screw up in the field...(or on the bases getting picked off, which happened not long ago too).

This is the last time I am going to say "he's only 24". I realize better than anyone that he is still very young, and his overall career arc could still take a steep upward climb. But you know what ? It's time. We need him NOW. This is OUR time to enjoy the greatness that could be Justin Upton. We have him for 3 1/2 more years, and then he'll most likely be gone. I want to enjoy the next 3 1/2 years and stop talking about how young he is.

I have been a HUGE supporter, both publicly and privately, and that won't stop. But I do feel it's time Justin. C'mon man....LETS GO!

Probably the last thing anyone wants to read from me is another Montero post. At this point, it's mostly a moot point. He's signed. He's staying at least for a while, (although it's notable there isn't a no trade clause) However I wanted to take one more comprehensive look at potential comps for Montero. This time I opened it wide. I am trying to get as many guys in the sample as possible. So after the jump I'll lay out the logic and thought process applied and we'll see where we end up. I am typing the text as I work, so we are going to find out together how this pans out.

Continue reading this post »

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the one thing that Collmenter had going for him more than any other last year, pinpoint control and command, has deserted him. Not only is he walking more guys, but he is leaving balls belt high over the middle of the plate and getting hammered. He's been doing it since spring, and something is wrong. It could be mechanical, physical, or mental. But whatever it is, he needs to go work it out somewhere else. Last year is over.

I'm moving on, whether the team is ready to or not. So I thought I'd poll everyone on his replacement in the rotation. keeping Collmenter in the rotation is not an option in the poll. Some won't like that. Sorry. I put the same poll up on the bullpen, but not many readers/posters there any more. So lets see what the gang here thinks.

After the jump, some links to some useful pages and the poll

Continue reading this post »

Josh Collmenter had an excellent Rookie season. His 3.38 ERA , (117 ERA+) were very good. His WHIP was an excellent 1.069. He did a great job at keeping runners off base.

The underlying peripherals are very interesting, and while not unique, presented a somewhat rare statistical profile last year. Specifically, his walks per 9, and his BABIP were extremely low. These two numbers were the underpinning of his success, as his HR/9 and K/9 were a little worse than league average.

	Collmenter	Lge. Avg
BABIP	.260	.296
BB/9	1.63	3.1
K/9	5.83	7.3
HR/9	0.99	0.90

How do the numbers in his first MLB season compare to his minor league career ?

	Majors	Minors
BABIP	.260	.293
BB/9	1.63	3.1
K/9	5.83	8.2
HR/9	0.99	0.60

So how rare is it for a pitcher to have this kind of BABIP and walk combo ? Pretty rare.

In 2011, there were only two pitchers to throw at least 140 IP and have a BABIP under .270 and a BB/9 under 1.70, Collmenter and Josh Tomlin.

Note: I really encourage people to follow the links and study the tables.

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/CcdIY

In the last 20 years there have been 18 such season, (3 by Greg Maddux). Tomlin and Collmenter are the first guys to do it since 2005

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/RTQQB

What about going forward ? How likely is it that Collmenter can continue to have a BABIP under .270 ? It's been said that he is "tough to square up". Thats certainly true to some degree. He is a fly ball pitcher, and the vast majority of the flyballs he allows were very catchable balls last years. His minor league BABIP of .293, while much higher than last years, is still better than the average minor league BABIP, which is usually higher than it is in MLB. (Better fielders in MLB of cours e).

How many pitchers in the last 20 years have thrown at least 400 IP in the majors and had a sub .270 BABIP ?

TEN PITCHERS IN 20 YEARS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN A SUB .270 BABIP FOR ANY REASONABLE PERIOD OF TIME

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/B0SMT

As a side note, the guy on that list that I most liken Collmenter to is Chris Young, formerly of San Diego. He had several years where he was really effective when he could actually post up and pitch. He was tough to pick up like Josh, and also an extreme flyball pitcher. But back injuries killed his career.

So what about the walk rate ?

EIGHT PITCHERS IN 20 YEARS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN A BB/9 RATE UNDER 1.70 FOR ANY REASONABLE PERIOD OF TIME

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/QPHPc

And finally, what about the combination of low BABIP and low walks ? Well, you have to bring the BABIP up to about .285 to get anyone on the list at all.

BABIP LESS than .285, BB/9 Less than 1.7

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/Opkrv

CONCLUSION:

Well, I really don't have a hard and fast conclusion. Obviously I am prone to think that some regression to Collmenter's BABIP and Walk Rate are higly likely, or I wouldn't be posting this. The added baserunners would certainly drive up his runs allowed. On the other hand, he may continue to develop his curveball and increase his K Rate, allowing fewer balls in play, somewhat offsetting an expected regression to his BABIP. But if his BABIP goes up to say .290, which would still be better than league avg, and his BB/9 goes to 2.5, then you would be looking at about 27 more baserunners in the same 154 IP

That would mean an increase in WHIP to about 1.25. And you know what ? Thats still pretty good. As long as the HR rate doesn't spike, he can be a decent run preventer with that kind of profile.

I think some of the early projections for an ERA around league average are pretty reasonable. And who knows, maybe he can continue to throw strikes as effectively as he did last year while adding wrinkles to his arsenal. If he can do that, keeping an ERA south of 3.50 is not out of the question.

Good luck Josh. Keep throwing strikes no matter what. And keep working on that curveball.

I've been criticized for criticizing many of the teams recent moves. The crux of my criticism has been that the team has signed a lot of position players and committed a lot of money, but has not improved at any STARTING positions. Specifically they have committed 35 million to 6 postion players covering 10 contract years for 2012-2013.

MLB Trade Rumors Tracker

Where I have been challenged is to show what I would have done instead. While that is never an exact exercise to engage in, because without personally speaking to other GM's, or player's agents, I have no idea who might have been available in a trade, or which players would even consider playing for Arizona., I'm still going to give it a try

Continue reading this post »

Simple question:

Who will have the better 2012 season, Trevor Bauer or Tyler Skaggs ? By definition, producing anything above replacement level in the majors trumps anything that is done in the minors.

Bauer showed off his great stuff in both Visalia and Mobile, striking out 43 in 25.2 IP, for an incredible 15.1 K/9. But he was undone a bit by walks, (12 of them or 4.2 per nine) 3 homers, and especially a .429 BABIP in Mobile. His FIP was less than half his 5.96 ERA

Skaggs, who is 6 months younger than Bauer, had the more "accomplished" season, winning minor league pitcher of the year for the organization. 11.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 4.04 k?bb ration, to go along with just a 0.6 HR/9 actually gave Skaggs a lower FIP than ERA for the season.

The D Backs season is defined by two super hot streaks.

After starting the season 15-22, they reeled off a 15-2 streak to vault into the NL West race.

They then played up and down ball for 2 1/2 months, a little more up than down, as they went 39-34 from June 1-August 22nd.

On August 23rd they started a 18-3 streak, that ended on September 13th.

They have now lost 3 straight since September 14th.

Their record in the two hot streaks is 33-5. Their record outside those two streaks is 54-59

Don't get me wrong, you have to be a pretty decent team to have two such hot streaks. But with 10 games left, and the team in a serious hitting slump, they need to pull out of it NOW, and win at least 5 of their remaining 10, and force the Giants to win out, which is unlikely of course.

Fortuntely for us, Pittsburgh has been playing some pretty bad baseball since the end of July, and has struggled on the road too, (14-34 since July 29, 6-15 on the road since that date).

If the team salvages a game tomorrow in the SD series, and wins 2 of 3 from Pittsburgh as they should, it pretty much forces the Giants to come into Chase Field and sweep to have a chance to catch us. But if we lose tomorrow, and lose 2 of 3 to Pittsburgh, then it will be pretty much the unraveling of the season happening before your eyes and the D Backs holding on for dear life against the Giants next weekend with their hands wrapped firmly around their throats.

I've been playing around looking at players age 30 and under on our roster and comparing to those 31 or older.

I split it that way so that Roberts could be with the "young guys". Arbitrary, sure...but hey, it's my post.  Seriously, I look at him as part of the youth of the team, because he doesn't have a lot of major league PA's and he plays a very youthful style of ball. 

The only guy over 31 with an OPS over 100 is Henry Blanco on the strength of those early season homers.  Then it's a pretty steep drop to Willie and his 81.

Here is the quicky snapshot, below is the full table, sorted by PA's.  The data speaks for itself.

 

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
30 or under	3905	.255	.332	.440	.772	108
31 or over	933	.239	.289	.345	.634	72

Continue reading this post »

I read over at the bullpen that David Wright cleared waivers.

Reversing an earlier position I held........I would put in a claim on him.

Here is my resoning.

1.) If the Mets just let him go for nothing....hey, it's only money, ownership money, and the team won't have given up any prospects. Yes he's owed another 16 million next year (15 + 1 mil buyout if option not exercised), but then he is a FA and the dollar commitment ends. (And you get a draft pic when he walks if current system stays intact)

2.) He has hit well since coming back on July 22, .298/.355/.484, including 8 doubles and 5 homers among his 37 hits, indicating he is healthy

3.) He can start at 3rd, move Roberts to 2nd, but they could also use him at first if Goldschmidt can't adjust and make more consistent contact.

4.) It's the closest thing to an impact move to upgrade the offense they can make and will energize the fan base and increase attendance, not to mention increasing the chances of making the playoffs and actually getting more than one home playoff game.

Extra revenue will help offset a little of his cost.

5.) Playing home games in Chase Field will probably give his power numbers a boost. If the team turned out to be sellers next year, he could be a valuable trade chip with a revitalized value.  (not being a pessimist, just weighing potential benefits)

EDIT:

6.) As Qudjy pointed out over at the bullpen, they will have to plug a hole at either 2b or 3b next year anyway, and have to spend at least SOME money on that hole, so that should discount against Wrights cost in this calculation.

I know spending that kind of money is unlikely......but this is EXACTLTY the type of situation where it makes sense to spend money to WIN NOW......it's not a long term commitment and you don't have to give up talent.

If the Mets don't just let him go, and the team needs to talk trade.....then they simply bargain, offer a low tier prospect and demand the mets eat salary to take him on.

I'd suggest they go for it.

There have been articles in the past at places like The Hardball Times  breaking down pitching numbers by the "number" of the starter.   I think that Jim even covered this as well a year or two ago.  The gist of this work usually shows that number 4 and number 5 starters, in aggregate usually have much higher ERA's than most people realize.  We usually have unrealistically high expectations for the guy(s) at the very back of the rotation compared to what is average in MLB.  Of course if a team is fortunate to have a deep rotation and has a pitcher or group of pitchers that are much better than what the league avg. is out of the 5th spot in the rotation, then it;s a big advantage and probably worth quite a few wins per season.

Unfortunately......that has not been the case for the D Backs this year, as the Chart  below shows 

Continue reading this post »

As anyone who has listened to the D Backs broadcasts over the last several years know, there used to be a pretty good natured debate between Daron and Mark over the value of the Quality Start statistic.  Daron would bring up the QS statistic, usually in relation to a D Backs pitcher when it was advantageous.  Gracie, in mock outrage, would rail against the stat, thinking it useless to point out a guy with just 6 IP and 3 ER and a 4.50 ERA as having produced "Quality".  Then Daron would dutifully point out that league average ERA was indeed close to 4.50.....and so it went.

Well.....things have changed, and it looks like this "debate" has been settled in Gracie's favor.....at least in the current run scoring environment.

Continue reading this post »

Yeah, I know.....I shouldn't be looking this far out ahead...but I did anyway.

Here are the projected starters for the Philly series.

August 16th  Saunders vs. Lee

August 17th  Kennedy vs.  Vance Worley

August 18th  Hudson vs. Hamels

 Before we get all phat and happy over missing Halladay, our team OPS vs. LH Starters is just .700, as compared to .749 vs. RH starters.

And Worley the rookie is 7-1 with a  2.33 ERA in 77 IP. (And a 3.25 FIP...so not crazy lucky.........he looks for real)

Too bad we miss Kyle Kenrick. We have knocked him around in his career pretty good, but even he is having a very good year this year.  (3.19 ERA in 87 IP)

 

For a guy that has no power, doesn't walk, and hits for just a slightly above  lg. avg batting avg, he needs to be doing all the "little things" right.   All these outs on the bases are TOTALLY unacceptable.

8 Caught Stealing,  6 Pickoffs, (4 of which are considered part of CS I guess) and 3 baserunning outs trying to advance on hits.  All this from a guy with just 240 PA's and just 74 times on base.

13 outs on the bases out of 74 times on base, or 18% of the time Willie gets on....he makes an out on the bases.  THATS ONE IN FIVE !!!!

Maybe the pickoff at 2nd base today wouldn't have mattered in the big scheme of things, but it sure felt like a game changer at the time.

It's really got to stop

4 games out does not seem like all that much, right ?   So why does Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report show Arizona with just a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs.  As Jim pointed out the other day, Cool Standings has them at a much more appealing 32.5%

Without getting into a study of the different methodologies between these two sites, lets just look once again at what actually has to happen:

Giants at 58-43 have a .574 Win %

If they maintain that pace the rest of the season they finish 93-69

The D Backs at 54-47 have a .535 Win %.

To Finish with 94 wins they have to go 40-21 the rest of the way , which is a .656 Pace !

So the Giants better slow down or we have no chance.

If the Giants go 30-31 over their final 61 games they still finish 88-74. The D Backs would still have to go 35-26 to finish 89-73

The D Backs going 35-26 while the Giants go 30-31 can only happen if we absolutely stomp them in head to head play. But of the 9 games remaining against the Giants, 6 are in their house and only 3 are at Chase field. The Giants are 31-18 at home.

And by the way, the Braves are a game better than the Giants at 59-42, and the D Backs only have 3 more games against the Braves, in Atlanta.

It's too bad the Giants series is the last series on this upcoming road trip, because it falls after the trade deadline. Anyway, anything less than a 6-3 road trip and taking 2 of 3 from the Giants at AT&T means winning the division is already in Hail Mary territory.

So Towers definitely should not be "buying", except if he can get an arm that is a CLEAR CUT upgrade over what he has available and he has control over that arm at least one more year beyond 2011, preferably two years.

The irony here is that if the D Backs were truly to have been buyers, they should have tried to get a deal done a month ago so they would have had the  supposed "upgrade" for more games.

It would seem like Paul Goldschmidt's call up is getting pretty close.   After gushing about Goldschmidt for several quotes in an Interview with Nick Piecoro,  Kevin Towers answered the question of when it's going to happen like this:

He said the organization already has talked internally about bringing Goldschmidt up.

"We’re kind of approaching that time to where we’ll make some decisions on people in our system," Towers said. "I wouldn’t say we’re at that point right now, but probably leading up to the All-Star Game, that’s when we’d probably have to decide to make moves. I think we’re always looking for ways to improve the club and the first place we’re going to look is internal."

Well. he left that open enough. "leading up to the all star break" could be anytime between now and the all start break. My experience with these things tells me it's close and they are looking for ways to make room and as soon as they do, it will happen.  If that involves a trade, it will take a little longer.

Continue reading this post »

Within a few hours of Buster Posey's injury, an article appeared on Fangraphs:

Buster Posey's Injury opens door for Colorado

The heartless bast...........oh wait....thats not what this post is about.

In the text of the article was this:

The Giants currently hold a 2.5*  game lead on Arizona,  a team which will likely regress, and a three game lead on their real competitor, Colorado.

 

*lead reduced to 1.5 since that writing

And that was the extent of any mention Arizona got in the article. Completely dismissed as an afterthought, A team that is playing over it's head. Due for regression.  See Ya.  Rather galling, eh ?.  Why would they say that ? Lets find out.  

Continue reading this post »

His (KT's) effect on the organization has been so positive that ownership told him he can make upgrades at the trade deadline, should something look appealing.

"I'm going to wait another month, maybe two, before deciding if we really have a chance at making a run in this division," Towers said. "It's tempting, but in these situations, the smart thing is to be a realist. We're still only six weeks into this thing."

Dan Bickley's article today

So how close are the D Backs to being good enough to make a run at the division ? Should they be looking to the trade market for the upgrades they need to contend ? Is the prospect of trading young talent for a chance to win this year scary as all get out ? These are questions for the readers to perhaps comment on. My thoughts after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Brett Anderson

Since July 1, 2009, Anderson ranks 7th in MLB in FIP. And among the top 25 guys in FIP since then, only Jaime Garcia has a better GB/FB and GB%

Obviously presentation of his ranking on this list does not mean I or anyone else thinks he's been better than Halladay or King Felix, who both have pitched 75% more innings during that span. And results DO count.  However this is a pretty good indication of just how special Anderson is

 

<code>

	Player	Team	G	IP	ERA	BFP	GB	FB	G/F	GB%	FIP
1	Josh Johnson	Fla	45	281.2	2.81	1151	360	252	1.43	58.8	2.74
2	Adam Wainwright	StL	51	358.1	2.24	1431	512	262	1.95	66.1	2.76
3	Cliff Lee	Tex(4)*	45	330	3.14	1322	401	388	1.03	50.8	2.78
4	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	48	292.2	2.61	1201	296	292	1.01	50.3	2.96
5	Tim Lincecum	SF	49	323.2	3.14	1341	421	255	1.65	62.3	3
6	Justin Verlander	Det	52	361	3.42	1480	393	385	1.02	50.5	3.04
7	Brett Anderson	Oak	35	213.1	2.91	874	347	177	1.96	66.2	3.06
8	Jon Lester	Bos	48	312	3	1286	426	242	1.76	63.8	3.14
9	Felix Hernandez	Sea	52	378.2	2.33	1523	573	301	1.9	65.6	3.18
10	Zack Greinke	KC	50	334	3.56	1381	419	349	1.2	54.6	3.22
11	Roy Halladay	Tor-Phi	50	380.2	2.62	1529	556	328	1.7	62.9	3.24
12	Ubaldo Jimenez	Col	50	336.1	3	1365	435	247	1.76	63.8	3.25
13	Tommy Hanson	Atl	50	301.1	3.23	1238	359	337	1.07	51.6	3.27
14	Francisco Liriano	Min	44	238.2	4.11	1017	335	198	1.69	62.9	3.3
15	Yovani Gallardo	Mil	46	273	4.12	1189	322	237	1.36	57.6	3.35
16	Roy Oswalt	Hou-Phi	46	287.2	3.16	1150	380	287	1.32	57	3.36
17	Hiroki Kuroda	LAD	45	270.2	3.49	1126	419	254	1.65	62.3	3.37
18	CC Sabathia	NYY	52	358.2	3.19	1467	498	330	1.51	60.1	3.39
19	Wandy Rodriguez	Hou	49	304	3.29	1266	414	274	1.51	60.2	3.42
20	Mat Latos	SD	41	235.1	3.29	960	277	246	1.13	53	3.43
21	C.J. Wilson	Tex	74	245.2	3.26	1033	336	224	1.5	60	3.43
22	Jaime Garcia	StL	28	163.1	2.7	695	274	110	2.49	71.4	3.45
23	Chris Carpenter	StL	52	357	2.85	1453	557	285	1.95	66.2	3.46
24	Chad Billingsley	LAD	47	275.2	4.08	1179	400	244	1.64	62.1	3.51
25	Anibal Sanchez	Fla	41	245.1	3.38	1057	330	259	1.27	56	3.51

</code>

Jim and I discussed ST results last year or the year before, and I think as a result he started posting something that came out of that conversation. Specifically, the point that in the first half of ST, almost all the starters are out of the game by the 5th inning, and even a lot of the top relievers are used earlier in the games. So rather than looking at Team overall Won Loss, or individual players stats, one way to take the temperature of how the team is doing relative to major league competiion is to look at results through the first 5 innings.  I mean, it's great that our minor leaguers are doing some damage against other teams minor leaguers.....but that won't have much bearing on the first few months of the season. So how are we doing through the first 5 innings ?

 

Date	AZ Runs	OPP Runs	thru 5
Feb-25	4	7	L
Feb-26	1	1	T
Feb-27	0	3	L
Feb-28	1	2	L
Mar-01	4	6	L
Mar-02	3	1	W
Mar-02	2	3	L
Mar-03	3	2	W
Mar-04	0	3	L
Mar-05	2	2	T
Mar-06	1	5	L
Mar-07 #1	3	5	L
Mar-07 #2	1	4	L
Mar-08	13	2	W
Mar-09	7	8	L
	45	54	3W, 10L, 2T

 

As long as I'm being a geek, I should point out thats a .400 Pythag winnings %.  Pythag is probably a better thing to look at than actual game won loss for ST anyway. This is something that is worth keeping an eye on for the next 7=10 days.  Once starting pitchers start going 5-6 innings, and starting position players hang around for at least 7 innings, then you can start just adding on  full game results

Looking at this roster......looking at the projections, and looking at early spring results is all re-enforcing the idea in my mind that unless Upton REALLY breaks out, and CY, KJ, Drew, & Montero, can at least match their best major league seasons to date, our offense is gonna suck and the pitching will surprise a few people if they stay healthy.

[Edit by Jim] Now updated prettily, with the past five games - though we went 1-4, the Tuesday blowout means we actually closed the gap by one run over the four days.

 

Bill James wrote in the 1988 Baseball Abstract:

"It is dangerous for a baseball team to have too many players with the same weakness, no matter what the weakness. . .So in building a ballclub, you have to be aware of the weaknesses of your stalwart players, and avoid duplicating those weaknesses among the replaceable players."

Here is a list of teams that had the most players with over 20% Strikeout rate and over 100 PA's

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/vsAqt  

 

After the jump lets take a look at the "top" 14 teams, with 9 or more players with over a 20% K rate

Continue reading this post »

There are some positives to take out of Young's season. (We all know the negatives and they have been discussed all season, HR's were down, K's were up, Steals were down)  But I want to focus on the positive for CY, because I think there are a lot.

1.) He increased his walks from 43 to 62, and his walk % from  0.69 to 0.89

2.)  His OBP went from .295 to .315, an increase of 20 points in an environment where league average OBP went down. 

3.) While his HR's were down 10, his XBH hit total actually increased from 64 to 72, thanks to a huge jump in doubles and triples.

4. ) His BABIP went from .260 to .304.  Thats not luck in this case. Remember hitters have more control over their BABIP than pitchers do, and in fact Young's Line Drive Rate  went from 15.1%  to 19.1%. 

5.) For the second year in a row his second half numbers were much better than his first half numbers.  Selective begin and end points, to be sure, but perhaps an indication he is capable of making in season adjustments.  I fully admit to being quite disheartened by his first half.  I lamented quite often how he seemed to be making a huge step backward at the time. But with the perspective of the entire season, and without  the ever present  emotion of frustration during the actual games, it's easier to take a longer term view here.

6.) His situational hitting with RISP and Men on base improved a great deal in 2008.  I think we all acknowledge that due to small sample sizes, BA W RISP and the like are not very predictive, but he went from awful in these situations to decent.

CY's Splits page

7.) His sac bunting improved...he went from 1 to 6 SH,  and he was much more willing to show bunt attempt for base hit  and get the 3B to cheat. I've always felt this was key for Young's success because he pulls so many hard grounders and low liners to the left side.  So he gets the double benefit of utilizing his speed AND increasing his chances of getting a hit past a cheating 3rd basemen.  I'd like to see more of it from him in 2009.  He still needs to improve his bunting for basehit attempt %.  He was just 3 for 12 when attempting to bunt for a hit.  He and Justin Upton both had just 3 Bunt hits, and that was tied for just 40th in the majors. Guys this fast need to improve on this.  But just showing the attempts will help him get more hits in the long run.

He's still got a lot to work  on  course. Pitch recognition being first and foremost.  For example the major league average for Percentage of strikes looking is 27%. In 2007, Young's was 32%, and that went even higher in 2008, to 34%.   We all saw it all year long....he just stared at too many hittable strikes.     If  CY can learn to recognize strikes a little better, and swing and not miss those hittable pitches, pitchers will start being much more careful with him and not just pound the strike zone like they do now, knowing they can get ahead.

Finally, the other positives for CY are that he's still only 25, and that he just came off an excellent defensive season in which he established himself as a top tier defensive centerfielder.   I believe going forward CY has an excellent chance to continue to improve, and that when it's all said and done, we will have determined he was well worth the contract extension.

Jackson led the N.L. with a .542 (13-24) batting average, a 1.083 slugging percentage and nine runs scored, and he tied for the N.L. lead with 13 hits. The 26-year old first baseman hit two doubles, a triple and three home runs, drove in seven runs, and recorded a .593 on-base percentage. The University of California at Berkeley product recorded consecutive three-hit games on July 21st and 22nd vs. the Chicago Cubs and then added another three-hit effort on July 27th at San Francisco. Jackson (.324, 12 HR, 55 RBI) ended the week by posting five straight multi-hit games in which he collected at least one RBI. This marks Conor's second weekly award honor of the season (previous: 4/21).

MLB Press Release

It's a pleasure seeing CJ come into his own and reward those who had the patience and foresight to stick with him as he made incremental improvements to his game over the last 3 years.

Coupled with the improvements to his baserunning, and the surprisingly adequate   defense in LF, he has become a very valuable player, and we are lucky to have him under control for the next 3 years through what is sure to be the prime of his career.

 

I just posted this at DBBP:

After seeing our disappointment (At DBBP)  at not being able to attend a Q &A with Josh, Derrick Hall reached out ....again.....and let me know he wanted to arrange something special. None of the speculation about the reasons for it not being available were correct. It was simply something that the ticketing department was going to make exclusive to season ticket holders....but they obviously decided to open it up. After some consultation, the date of August 23rd, which coincides with the DBBP/AZ Snakepit group outing has been chosen for a special Q &A session.

Below is the text and information I just received:

 

Hello

After speaking with our Team President, Derrick Hall, we will be having a Fans Ask Questions session with Executive Vice President and General Manager Josh Byrnes on Saturday, August 23rd.  The session is free for anyone who pre-registers and has a ticket for that night’s game.  It will be held in the Upper Concourse Banquet Room beginning at 3:15pm, 15 minutes after gates open and last approximately 1 hour.  A flyer is currently being made, I can e-mail it to you after completion if you would like.  To register, fans can e-mail me or call 602-462-6544.  Please let me know if you need anything else.

 

Thanks,

Ryan

Here is Ryan's e mail address:

RGinsberg@dbacks.com

So if you are going to the game Sat, Aug 23rd, e mail Ryan, or Call him to register.

Thanks to Derrick, Josh, and Ryan.

You guys are the best. !!