SBNation.com User Blog: shoewizard

Didi injures Elbow, out for most of Spring Training

shoewizard — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 07:55:28 -0000

Didi injures Elbow, out for most of Spring Training

General Manager Kevin Towers said shortstop prospect Didi Gregorius, acquired in December in the Trevor Bauer trade, has been shut down for roughly the past month with elbow problems and might have to start the season on the disabled list.

Towers said Gregorius’ elbow didn’t feel good after a long-toss session in January, at which point he traveled to Arizona to be evaluated by team physician Dr. Michael Lee.

"Dr. Lee said it was nothing serious and we decided to err on the side of being cautious," Towers said. "Dr. Lee felt it would be best to take four weeks to shut him down, with no swinging a bat or throwing, and then start ramping him up."

Gregorius is scheduled to begin a throwing program sometime next week, Towers said, but he still is expected to miss the start of the Cactus League season. Towers is hoping Gregorius will be able to start playing in games near the end of spring training, but he "may be a week late" to start the regular season.

"It’s nothing serious, no surgery or anything like that," Towers said.

Gregorius already was a long shot to make the Opening Day roster, given his limited experience in the upper minors and the presence of Pennington and Bloomquist, and the injury all but guarantees that he’ll start the year in the minors.

As to when his season will begin, time will tell.

D Backs Plan Revealed

shoewizard — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 04:32:57 -0000

They are hoping they have unlocked the key to beating your pythag on a consistent basis

"Last year, we scored more runs than in the previous year. It’s not all how many runs you score. In 2011, we were very good and efficient at winning close ballgames. Last year, we weren’t. If you look at statistics, high-leverage situations we were not good. Late and close we were not good. Yet we improved ourselves with runners in scoring position. 2007 was the same way, we had a negative run differential (and still won 90 games). That’s what we’re looking for. We’re looking for the net effect."

*Gibson on last season: "I can say that 81-81 does not sound good to me at all. I took it very personally. I take responsibility for it. You analyze why does that happen. Again, you analyze numbers and reality and in 2011 we overachieved. In 2012 we underachieved. We want to overachieve again regardless (of what people predict)."

LINK

While he may not be articulating it all that well, what he is saying is not without some merit. (Hey, it's spring training...as I said elsewhere this is when you get the "optimist shoe". Enjoy it while it lasts) There was certainly an all or nothing aspect to the offense last year it seemed. More games where they scored a lot, more games where they scored 3 or less. Nick references this briefly in his article, but fleshing it out a bit more Scoring 3 or less 2012-70 games, 2011-64 games Scoring 4 or 5 runs 2012-36 games, 2011-51 games Scoring 6 or more runs 2012-56 games, 2011-47 games So the tendency towards greater extremes in 2012 vs 2011 can be seen pretty clearly.

They clearly believe that having a more contact oriented, less HR dependent offense will address that. It makes intuitive sense, but I'd need to study it more to see if that's truly the case. During the fanfest interview linked on the teams website, there was a video where they talked a lot about Late and close stats, and the inability to hit in those situations. It truly was horrible. But it wasn't only that. While the team had 11 fewer comeback wins, (48 in 2011, vs. 37 in 2012) they ALSO had 5 more blown leads, (28 in 2011 vs 33 in 2012).

Also, in that interview they tried to offer that Hinske and Chavez will help in this area, but their track record the last 3 to 5 years indicates anything but. They also highlighted Cody Ross, who has indeed been a good "clutch" player, but his numbers there the last 3 years also not quite as good as they were prior to 2010. And Prado, while pretty good in L&C situations, does not have the kind of long term track record that suggests a clutch God either.

I think they feel they have an addressed an area that in my opinion regression to the mean would have gone at lesat 50% of the way towards solving. The 2012 numbers are off the charts in L&C, best in baseball, and the 2011 numbers were close to the worst. Thats with many of the same players getting the bulk of the PA's. Although it's notable that the guys with the most PA's in L&C in 2012 were Hill and Goldy, and they both did quite poorly in those situations, and they are both still here. 2012 L&C 2011 L&C

The bottom line is that teams that beat their pythag typically get very good or great relief pitching and very good or great hitting late in games. They win the close games. And both those areas, Relief Pitching and L&C hitting are volatile from year to year and difficult if not impossible to project. There are repeatable skills in there most likely, but probably not to the degree that KT and Gibby think.

They are hoping they have unlocked the key to beating your pythag on a consistent basis

"Last year, we scored more runs than in the previous year. It’s not all how many runs you score. In 2011, we were very good and efficient at winning close ballgames. Last year, we weren’t. If you look at statistics, high-leverage situations we were not good. Late and close we were not good. Yet we improved ourselves with runners in scoring position. 2007 was the same way, we had a negative run differential (and still won 90 games). That’s what we’re looking for. We’re looking for the net effect."

*Gibson on last season: "I can say that 81-81 does not sound good to me at all. I took it very personally. I take responsibility for it. You analyze why does that happen. Again, you analyze numbers and reality and in 2011 we overachieved. In 2012 we underachieved. We want to overachieve again regardless (of what people predict)."

LINK

Piecoro:zona Diamondbacks didn’t get enough from Atlanta Braves for Justin Upton

shoewizard — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 22:11:16 -0000

Piecoro:zona Diamondbacks didn’t get enough from Atlanta Braves for Justin Upton

My opinion on the deal is right in line with the general consensus: The Diamondbacks didn’t get enough. Which, in so many ways, is incredible to me. After close to 2 1/2 years of on-again/off-again trade discussions involving Upton, this is the deal they settle on? After saying time and again that they’re only going to trade Upton if/when the right package comes along, this is the one they deem the right one?

*This whole off-season seems like a huge overreaction, something Towers said in early December he didn’t feel any pressure to do. This is from a story I wrote just before the winter meetings:

"Even though last year was a disappointing year," Towers said, "I still think that same ball club, given maybe a different year and a different set of circumstances and doing some of the little things that are hard to measure better and smarter, that we can be a much better ball club.

"I know everybody thinks you have to tweak it here and tweak it there and there are some years you have to, but I still look at my club and am a little dumbfounded (at the results). I think we were a better ball club."

He mentioned the number of highly regarded prospects in his farm system. He brought up the fact that the organization has no bad contracts. He said his roster has flexibility.

"I really like the state we’re in," Towers said, "and I don’t want to do something drastic just because we finished .500 last year."

It seems he’s done exactly that.

What is the Diamondbacks plan ?

shoewizard — Wed, 16 Jan 2013 16:16:03 -0000

What is the Diamondbacks plan ?

Perception and expectation

shoewizard — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 05:53:38 -0000

Perception and expectations are funny things.

Look at the batting line for these two players between the ages of 22-24

OPS+	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
124	1824	.276	.365	.458	.822
120	1873	.281	.361	.469	.830

The triple slash lines and OPS+ are very similar, with a slight edge in OPS+ to the player on top.

Some more info on these guys

PA	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP
1824	95	19	51	213	298	16
1873	90	12	65	186	399	28

The player on top has better plate discipline and might run a little better, but the player on bottom has more HR power. However the net result is that these two players are pretty close, and obviously are already good hitters at a very young age.

The player on top is Andrew McCutchen, from 2009-2011 . The other of course is Justin Upton from 2010 to 2012.

Note that this 3 season sample does NOT include Justin's age 21 season in 2009 when he hit .300 with 26 HR and made the all star team. It includes his two "disappointing seasons" of 2010 & 2012. I would have compared McCutchen's age 21 season, except he was in AAA hitting .283 with 9 HR. So kinda hard to do. ;)

Was anyone calling McCutchen a huge disappointment heading into 2012 ? Was Pittsburgh "Listening to offers" on him ? He is signed to a better contract though, that does not get expensive for another several years. This is because he was not called up too soon, and his service clock was not running too early.

Justin was called up to the majors too soon. He needed more time to refine his game in the minors. I understand the circumstances of his callup in 2007. I'm not second guessing that. The Quentin injury forced their hand. They didn't have a better option. But he really needed another year in the minors. Because he was called up so early, it feels like he has been around forever. I remember reading a Bickley article in mid 2011 where he said Justin was "FINALLY" living up to his potential. That was pretty funny, and ironic, considering it was the middle of his age 23 season. Finally indeed.

Is Justin the best player in the game ? No......unfortunately the early comparisons to some of the all time greats have not come to be at this stage in his career. He's not even the best 24 year old in the game right now. But he is a good ballplayer, and worth his contract even if he doesn't give us more than 120-125 OPS+ over the next 3 seasons.

Perception and expectations are funny things.

Look at the batting line for these two players between the ages of 22-24

OPS+	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
124	1824	.276	.365	.458	.822
120	1873	.281	.361	.469	.830

The triple slash lines and OPS+ are very similar, with a slight edge in OPS+ to the player on top.

Some more info on these guys

PA	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP
1824	95	19	51	213	298	16
1873	90	12	65	186	399	28

The player on top is Andrew McCutchen, from 2009-2011 . The other of course is Justin Upton from 2010 to 2012.

Should Towers have traded Upton after 2011 ?

shoewizard — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 02:32:01 -0000

The really ballsy thing for Towers to do would have been to trade Upton after 2011.

Oh I would have screamed bloody murder, but if he were going to have a chance to get some team to wildy overpay for Upton, that was the window.

But he didn't have the balls. Can't fault him, as Upton had a near MVP caliber season and the team made the playoffs. So that would have been a hard sell. But if his evaluation of Upton was correct, it would have been correct then, not just now after Upton comes off an injury marred season.

I have read several times people comparing this situation to the Peavy situation that he dragged out for over year, shopping him like crazy and having to deal with all the rumors.

At the end of the day, he didn't get much for Peavy.

In 4 years SD got 584 somewhat below league avg innings from Clayton Richard, (ttl. 1.6 WAR, 94 ERA+) and nothing else.

Adam Russel 28 IP, -0.1 WAR
Aaron Poreda 2 IP
And Dexter Carter, who never made it to the show and is pitching in the independent league.

At this point, as Upton's trade value is now lower, due both because he had a "down" year in 2012 and because he is into the more expensive parts of his contract and the years of control are one fewer, the window for Towers to get a suitable return for Upton has probably closed.

If he truly feels he will not trade him unless overwhelmed, then great. I hope what he is saying is true. But this could also just be GM speak. Who knows ? At this stage it's obviously proven to be really really hard to get proper return for Upton. Unless Upton was a malcontent, locker room problem, which he is not, you can't trade him for supposed "equal" value. You might fill one hole if you don't screw up like he did with the Peavy trade, but you open up another hole and don't really improve the team. If the D Backs had another outfielder coming up from the minors that had a similar upside to Upton, it would be different. But they don't.

So here we are.

Sit tight and know that even if Upton only gives you 9 WAR over the next 3 seasons, he has still at least earned his contract. If he gives you more, then you are well in the black and have an all star caliber player for 3 more years. This is how winning teams are built.

Upton should play where he's wanted

shoewizard — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 23:04:51 -0000

Upton should play where he's wanted

Nick, who is obviously close to the team, sounds off on the Upton rumors.

Taken together with his article pointing out all the contradictions in the statements from the front office, I think it's pretty clear where he stands

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/NickPiecoro/173949

Runs, RBI's and Outs

shoewizard — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 07:38:02 -0000

There are a lot of run estimators out there, such as RC or Runs Created used at baseball reference, based off of Bill James work. Or wRC which is the runs created estimator they use at Fangraphs. They are all pretty good at estimating total run contribution. But for many fans they don't feel as "real" as simply adding up things like RBI, or Runs Scored. The less obvious or hidden value of advancing runners, or extending an inning or pitcher pitch count, etc , while clearly valuable, are not as obvious to the average fan not interested in doing the math or distrustful of those that have.

There is a simplistic Run Created stat that came out a long time ago that while far from an "accurate" measure, still gives some idea of run creation value that most fans can grasp easily, as there is no complicated math involved.

That would be RBI + Runs - HR *

*Obviously in this measure you can't double count Homers as both a run and an RBI as you are trying to assess

actual runs put on the board, and they don't give you two on the board when you hit a solo shot.

Here is how the D Backs did in this stat:

Rk	Player	R_prod
4	Justin Upton	157
7	Aaron Hill	152
2	Paul Goldschmidt	144
1	Miguel Montero	138
6	Jason Kubel	135
9	Willie Bloomquist	70
12	Chris Young	63
10	Ryan Roberts	56
5	Chris Johnson	40
17	John McDonald	32
13	Stephen Drew	27
3	Cody Ransom	22
8	Adam Eaton	22
14	Ryan Wheeler	20
11	Lyle Overbay	19
16	A.J. Pollock	14
15	Henry Blanco	12
18	Jake Elmore	8
19	Josh Bell	6

So those are the raw totals. But there isn't much context there, i.e. how many games, or PA's, or how many OUTS did the player use up to produce those runs.

So lets look at it as a rate as well. I have chosen R-produced / OUT made because I believe you have to at least look as how many of the team's precious 27 outs per game a guy is using up to produce those runs. This is going to give a boost to guys who don't make too many outs obviously. But I think thats correct. Out in baseball are bad, (for the offense), M Kay ?

Rk	Player	R_prod	Out	Rate
1	Miguel Montero	138	362	.381
2	Paul Goldschmidt	144	379	.380
3	Cody Ransom	22	58	.379
4	Justin Upton	157	414	.379
5	Chris Johnson	40	111	.360
6	Jason Kubel	135	390	.346
7	Aaron Hill	152	445	.342
8	Adam Eaton	22	66	.333
9	Willie Bloomquist	70	241	.290
10	Ryan Roberts	56	202	.277
11	Lyle Overbay	19	71	.268
12	Chris Young	63	257	.245
13	Stephen Drew	27	111	.243
14	Ryan Wheeler	20	87	.230
15	Henry Blanco	12	53	.226
16	A.J. Pollock	14	65	.215
17	John McDonald	32	152	.211
18	Jake Elmore	8	56	.143
19	Josh Bell	6	46	.130

Insert the obligatory "Cody Ransom" snark here. (Jim......? Anybody home ? )

Seriously, obviously I am somewhat pimping Justin Upton today. And I'm not trying to be too subtle. The thought process here is simple. If you are into RBI, as context dependent as they are, then you should be equally into Runs Scored, as getting on base a lot, and running the bases well to put yourself in a position to score is just as valuable as getting the hit that drives the runner home. And doing these things without using up too many of the team outs is a good thing.

That would be RBI + Runs - HR *

*Obviously in this measure you can't double count Homers as both a run and an RBI as you are trying to assess

actual runs put on the board, and they don't give you two on the board when you hit a solo shot.

Here is how the D Backs did in this stat:

Rk	Player	R_prod
4	Justin Upton	157
7	Aaron Hill	152
2	Paul Goldschmidt	144
1	Miguel Montero	138
6	Jason Kubel	135
9	Willie Bloomquist	70
12	Chris Young	63
10	Ryan Roberts	56
5	Chris Johnson	40
17	John McDonald	32
13	Stephen Drew	27
3	Cody Ransom	22
8	Adam Eaton	22
14	Ryan Wheeler	20
11	Lyle Overbay	19
16	A.J. Pollock	14
15	Henry Blanco	12
18	Jake Elmore	8
19	Josh Bell	6

So those are the raw totals. But there isn't much context there, i.e. how many games, or PA's, or how many OUTS did the player use up to produce those runs.

Rk	Player	R_prod	Out	Rate
1	Miguel Montero	138	362	.381
2	Paul Goldschmidt	144	379	.380
3	Cody Ransom	22	58	.379
4	Justin Upton	157	414	.379
5	Chris Johnson	40	111	.360
6	Jason Kubel	135	390	.346
7	Aaron Hill	152	445	.342
8	Adam Eaton	22	66	.333
9	Willie Bloomquist	70	241	.290
10	Ryan Roberts	56	202	.277
11	Lyle Overbay	19	71	.268
12	Chris Young	63	257	.245
13	Stephen Drew	27	111	.243
14	Ryan Wheeler	20	87	.230
15	Henry Blanco	12	53	.226
16	A.J. Pollock	14	65	.215
17	John McDonald	32	152	.211
18	Jake Elmore	8	56	.143
19	Josh Bell	6	46	.130

Insert the obligatory "Cody Ransom" snark here. (Jim......? Anybody home ? )

Playing around with bWAR as a Rate Stat

shoewizard — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 06:45:52 -0000

WAR is a counting stat. Kind of. Just like RBI, or HR, WAR is basically a tabulation of performance. The difference is a player can have positive or negative events as it relates to replacement level. So a player can see his WAR decrease during the season. That said....it's still a counting stat. As such, it can be a little misleading when looking at the raw counting number of WAR as players with more playing time have the chance to put up more WAR.

What I was playing around was simply looking at oWAR/PA and WAR/PA. oWAR of course being everything BUT defense, and WAR including defense. I wanted to see how the players on the D Backs ranked on a per PA basis. Numbers after the jump.

First oWAR. As BB-reference explains, it's everything but defense. So Batting runs, Baserunning, Double Plays, Positional and replacement adjustments all apply. The number I am showing below is simply PA/oWAR and then multiplied times 1000. Why ? Because it's easier to read then a bunch of numbers stuck behind a bunch of zeroes behind a decimal.

Age	G	PA	oWAR	PA/oWAR *1000
MiguelMontero*	136	552	3.9	7.1
AaronHill	149	636	4.4	6.9
CodyRansom	23	77	0.5	6.5
PaulGoldschmidt	141	569	2.9	5.1
ChrisJohnson	41	146	0.7	4.8
AdamEaton*	19	92	0.4	4.3
ChrisYoung	96	358	0.9	2.5
JustinUpton	143	598	1.4	2.3
JasonKubel*	137	558	1.3	2.3
WillieBloomquist	80	338	0.7	2.1
GerardoParra*	127	408	0.5	1.2
LyleOverbay*	45	110	0.1	0.9
JohnMcDonald	65	192	-0.1	-0.5
RyanRoberts	83	280	-0.2	-0.7
RyanWheeler*	45	111	-0.2	-1.8
StephenDrew*	40	155	-0.4	-2.6
HenryBlanco	21	67	-0.2	-3.0
JakeElmore	27	64	-0.3	-4.7
JoshBell#	21	56	-0.4	-7.1
A.J.Pollock	25	67	-0.6	-9.0

Well, thats pretty interesting. Of course the top is the top. No surprise Miggy, Hill and Goldy rank where they do. And no surprise about the bottom 5 or 6 guys either. Some interesting points in this chart to me are Eaton ranking as high as he does, despite is plummeting batting avg. (Remember this is offense only, no defense). And of course the MAJOR surprise here is Jason Kubel's rather mediocre ranking. But he gets dinged pretty hard by his massive slump, lack of walks, and poor baserunning. I think this is really striking. It's one thing to say when you add in defense a lot of Kubel's value is stripped away. It's another totally when you don't even include defense and he falls this far.

Here is the chart WITH the defense included, so just straght bWAR

Age	G	PA	WAR	PA/WAR	PA/WAR*1000
MiguelMontero*	136	552	3.9	0.0071	7.1
AaronHill	149	636	4.2	0.0066	6.6
PaulGoldschmidt	141	569	3.1	0.0054	5.4
AdamEaton*	19	92	0.5	0.0054	5.4
CodyRansom	23	77	0.4	0.0052	5.2
ChrisYoung	96	358	1.8	0.0050	5.0
GerardoParra*	127	408	1.7	0.0042	4.2
JohnMcDonald	65	192	0.7	0.0036	3.6
JustinUpton	143	598	1.9	0.0032	3.2
ChrisJohnson	41	146	0.3	0.0021	2.1
JasonKubel*	137	558	1	0.0018	1.8
RyanRoberts	83	280	0.4	0.0014	1.4
LyleOverbay*	45	110	0.1	0.0009	0.9
WillieBloomquist	80	338	-0.4	-0.0012	-1.2
RyanWheeler*	45	111	-0.3	-0.0027	-2.7
HenryBlanco	21	67	-0.2	-0.0030	-3.0
A.J.Pollock	25	67	-0.2	-0.0030	-3.0
StephenDrew*	40	155	-0.5	-0.0032	-3.2
JoshBell#	21	56	-0.4	-0.0071	-7.1
JakeElmore	27	64	-0.6	-0.0094	-9.4

Thats quite a different list, isn't it ? Of course Parra and McDonald leap frog quite a few guys, Kubel falls even further. Chris Johnson takes a hit too, which should come as no surprise. I think that passes the "smell test", don't you ?Looking at the pure offense, you get one sense, but if you add in defense, the guys you would expect to get a boost do indeed get a boost, and the guys you expect to take a hit, take a hit.

Or at least the guys I expected.

How to snyc radio and tv

shoewizard — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 07:42:51 -0000

How to snyc radio and tv

Thought some might find this link useful if they wanted to listen on radio and watch on tv

Revising my Adam Eaton position

shoewizard — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 23:59:47 -0000

I am a firm believer in the saying "when presented with new information, one must be willing to revise previously held positions"

I am going to do that with Adam Eaton, and my oft stated concerns about his low line drive rate. I have been referencing the data at Minor League Central, and up until very recently that data was showing Eaton as having very low line drive rates. I had checked them several times during and at the end off the minor league season , and they showed him as having a 14% LD rate at both Reno and Mobile this year. Running a search of the leaderboards, they showed him as ranking in the mid 80's among 120 players.

However, his CURRENT page shows him with a 17.5% line drive at Reno this year, and 15.6% at Mobile.

http://www.minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=594809

That is considerably better and a lot more reasonable. Accordingly, I must view his current lack of line drives in his first dozen games in the majors as a statistical anamoly, and not an extension of a weakness that was showing in his minor league data.

Also a hat tip to Blue Bulldog, who has mentioned before I should be less trusting of minor league balls in play data. Honestly, it's one thing to have some variance in the way balls are classified. It's another to have the rug completely pulled out from me and have such a radical revision to the data set.

Oh well.....this is GOOD news , and I am very happy to find out this new information, and have my previous position turn out to be wrong. It significantly bumps up my optimism for Eaton and his ability to hit and get on base at the major league level long term.

I am a firm believer in the saying "when presented with new information, one must be willing to revise previously held positions" I am going to do that with Adam Eaton, and my oft stated concerns about his low line drive rate. I have been referencing the data at Minor League Central, and up until very recently that data was showing Eaton as having very low line drive rates. I had checked them several times during and at the end off the minor league season , and they showed him as having a 14% LD rate at both Reno and Mobile this year. Running a search of the leaderboards, they showed him as ranking in the mid 80's among 120 players. However, his CURRENT page shows him with a 17.5% line drive at Reno this year, and 15.6% at Mobile. http://www.minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=594809 That is considerably better and a lot more reasonable. Accordingly, I must view his current lack of line drives in his first dozen games in the majors as a statistical anamoly, and not an extension of a weakness that was showing in his minor league data. Also a hat tip to Blue Bulldog, who has mentioned before I should be less trusting of minor league balls in play data. Honestly, it's one thing to have some variance in the way balls are classified. It's another to have the rug completely pulled out from me and have such a radical revision to the data set. Oh well.....this is GOOD news , and I am very happy to find out this new information, and have my previous position turn out to be wrong. It significantly bumps up my optimism for Eaton and his ability to hit and get on base at the major league level long term.

Is Willie Bloomquist Immortal ?

shoewizard — Thu, 16 Aug 2012 05:57:44 -0000

Is Willie Bloomquist Immortal ?

Tango: (*) If ever I roll out my version of WAR, I’ll likely call it W/w (Wins over Willie).

Could Batting Upton leadoff be just the spark this team needs ?

shoewizard — Thu, 16 Aug 2012 04:22:14 -0000

There are few things in baseball that are discussed more than batting orders and lineups. Every fan, analyst, and Tom Dick and Harry has an idea on how best to construct the lineup. Most managers don't pay much attention to what is being said and written about this, as they have their own set of criteria that they are looking at to make these determinations.

So knowing this will fall on deaf ears and blind eyes, I don't expect anything to change. But I'll plow ahead with my little thought exercise anyway.

Gibby has talked about how Upton has become a more complete ballplayer and while he's not hitting for power, is still contributing in other ways and has improved his game in other areas. I agree with that. Justin's .361 OBP is second best on the team this season.

Rk                       G  PA  R BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+
1     Miguel Montero*  100 404 47 55  91 .283 .394 .466 .860  126
2     Justin Upton     108 449 77 50  93 .275 .361 .406 .767  102
3     Paul Goldschmidt 103 409 51 34  96 .296 .355 .526 .881  128
4     Jason Kubel*     106 443 62 43 116 .277 .348 .546 .893  131
5     Aaron Hill       111 465 57 34  65 .293 .346 .480 .826  115
6     Gerardo Parra*    96 319 47 28  54 .277 .345 .404 .748   97
7     Willie Bloomquist 79 337 46 12  55 .300 .323 .396 .720   89
8     Chris Young       72 276 29 33  60 .212 .312 .419 .731   90

Moving Justin from 5th to 1st would put the team's 2nd best OBP guy in position to help set the table. While Justin does not have a good stolen base percentage, he is great at going first to 3rd on a single, scoring from 1st on doubles, etc etc. His speed is still a weapon at the top of the order and on the base baths.

Justin sees 3.87 P/PA, which is a little above league average (3.80

One of two things will happen if Justin is leading off. He'll see more fastballs and fewer breaking pitches, at least in his first AB of the game.....or if he still sees just as many breaking pitches, he'll possibly be better able to lay off some of those down and away sliders that confound him, as he'll be going up there knowing his role is to get on base and see as many pitches as possible.

I see an opportunity to maximize what Upton is doing well this season while minimizing what he is doing poorly, which is of course not hitting for power. Without the power he is not helping the lineup from the 5th or 3rd spot as much as he could be. But with OBP and speed, he could "spark" the offense from the top perhaps.

The team and Gibson have nothing to lose by trying this. As Amit Posted in his blog a week ago, the team leads the majors in games they have been shut out or scored just 1 run. Who knows....maybe such a "radical" shake up move could be the trigger that gets the offense moving and more consistent over the last 40+ games. It really can't hurt to try, and could make Gibby look like a genius if it works.

So knowing this will fall on deaf ears and blind eyes, I don't expect anything to change. But I'll plow ahead with my little thought exercise anyway.

Rk                       G  PA  R BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+
1     Miguel Montero*  100 404 47 55  91 .283 .394 .466 .860  126
2     Justin Upton     108 449 77 50  93 .275 .361 .406 .767  102
3     Paul Goldschmidt 103 409 51 34  96 .296 .355 .526 .881  128
4     Jason Kubel*     106 443 62 43 116 .277 .348 .546 .893  131
5     Aaron Hill       111 465 57 34  65 .293 .346 .480 .826  115
6     Gerardo Parra*    96 319 47 28  54 .277 .345 .404 .748   97
7     Willie Bloomquist 79 337 46 12  55 .300 .323 .396 .720   89
8     Chris Young       72 276 29 33  60 .212 .312 .419 .731   90

Justin sees 3.87 P/PA, which is a little above league average (3.80

Is Drew about to get hot ?

shoewizard — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 07:02:31 -0000

They keep saying on the broadcast how Drew has been hitting the ball hard, but been very unlucky. In Drew's case, that's probably true.

Prior to tonights game his BABIP was just .273, and based on his line drive rate, it should be a good deal higher. The thing is, out of Drew's 44 Balls in play check out the difference in classification between BB-Ref and FG

BR-GB=12, LD=13, FB=19
FG-GB=12, LD=18, FB=14

Thats a huge classification difference in such a small sample size. I wonder whats up with that ? Either way though it's a lot of line drives....over 30% by bb-ref, over 40% by FG. He's probably "missing" about 3, maybe 4 hits. His batting average should probably be somewhere between .267-.283, as opposed to his current .217 on 13 for 60 hitting. He does have 4 doubles already....but he has also shown a lot of just warning track power. Drew has always hit a lot of warning track fly balls anyway, but I think as he gets a little stronger, a couple will start getting over the wall soon.

I look for Drew to break out very soon and go on a hitting tear. He usually has one insanely hot month, filled with a ton of extra base hits. Such as

Aug 2010 .310/.381/.628 with 8 DB, 2 TP, 8 HR, 25 runs and 19 RBI.
Or July 2009, .323/.398/.573, 8 DB, 5 TR, 2 HR.......
or September 2008. .337/.387/.653. 10 DB, 2 TR, 6 HR.

His hottest month last year was April, but it didn't quite have the oomph of the previously monthly XBH riots. .321/.389/.531 7 DB, 2 TP, 2 HR.

Anyway, my guess is he has one of those months in him and this year it will be August. The question is who will he have it for ? Who knows, maybe they fail to move him and a Drew hot streak helps fuel a miracle resurgence for this team. Ya never know.

Is Justin Upton a future MVP ?

shoewizard — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 00:17:10 -0000

It's a simple question. Do you think Justin will ever win an MVP award.....or to be more realistic, do you think he will ever finish in the top 3 in either the MVP voting, or in WAR ?

Just to try to sway your opinion here is a little chart to help you along. ;)

   WAR/pos OPS+ HR   PA   AB   R   H  RBI  BB  SO HBP SF GDP  SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Upton 12.0  116 98 2745 2408 385 663  333 278 650  35 22  47  72 34 .275 .356 .475 .831
Kemp   8.1  113 89 2469 2260 349 645  331 176 581   8 24  46 104 39 .285 .336 .472 .808

It's a simple question. Do you think Justin will ever win an MVP award.....or to be more realistic, do you think he will ever finish in the top 3 in either the MVP voting, or in WAR ?

Just to try to sway your opinion here is a little chart to help you along. ;)

   WAR/pos OPS+ HR   PA   AB   R   H  RBI  BB  SO HBP SF GDP  SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Upton 12.0  116 98 2745 2408 385 663  333 278 650  35 22  47  72 34 .275 .356 .475 .831
Kemp   8.1  113 89 2469 2260 349 645  331 176 581   8 24  46 104 39 .285 .336 .472 .808

Poll

Will Justin Upton ever finish in top 3 in MVP voting or WAR ?

Yes

68 votes

No

26 votes

94 votes | Poll has closed

Some ideas for mid season moves to make

shoewizard — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 13:58:00 -0000

Trade Joe Saunders

Won’t get much in return, but you do get a roster spot, which can go to one of the young pitchers instead of sending them back to the minors, and you get salary relief. There are a couple of teams in contention that have had a lot of injuries and ineffectiveness in their rotation. One of them might even surprise us and give us a B- prospect for him.

If they do trade Saunders that gives them a rotation of Kennedy, Cahill, Miley, Collmenter and Bauer. And you have Corbin and Skaggs at the ready. You might even want to flip flop Collmenter and Corbin, (or Skaggs) so that you have a second lefty in the rotation, although that is not essential. I know it’s risky to have that many young pitchers in the rotation if you are in a pennant race. And Wade Miley is regressing too. But the experience will do them well and make the team even more formidable next year. In fact it most likely it won’t even cost much if anything to their chances this year. It may even improve them.

Of course Saunders needs to prove he is healthy this Saturday. If he sucks, this one goes by the boards until he pitches 2 decent games and shows he’s healthy.

DFA Geoff Blum, Call Up Wheeler.

Blum has nothing left at the plate. Bring up Wheeler, defense be damned, and at least have a good lefty bat to spell Roberts. Ryan Roberts is just 3 from the bottom in OBP and wRC+ among all MLB 3rd baseman with 250 or more PA’s. He is basically nullifying the surprisingly good season at the plate that Willie Bloomquist is having. His defense has been good, and when Wheeler does start, he can also be lifted late in games with Roberts coming in to play D.

Start Parra over Young vs. all Righties

I know I have written this before, and it’s been happening a bit more lately. Chris Young should only start against a lefty. Period. He can also pinch hit, be your righty bench bat to combat those LOOGYS and be a late inning defensive replacement for Kubel.

Bait and Switch the Pirates

Tell them you are trading them Upton, but ship them Drew instead. Seriously, the Pirates are desperate to upgrade their offense. Clint Barmes is the biggest black hole in their lineup. He’s been good defensively, but the guy is hitting .204 with a 45 OPS+. It’s possible the Pirates might just give up something worthwhile for an upgrade at Short. Barring that just keep Drew the rest of the season. His bat looks like it’s ready to come around.

Too bad Adrelton Simmons has played so well in Atlanta. Had he gotten off to a bad start, the Braves might have actually given up something to have Georgia boy Drew come on over and plug a hole at Short for them.

Trade Joe Saunders

Of course Saunders needs to prove he is healthy this Saturday. If he sucks, this one goes by the boards until he pitches 2 decent games and shows he’s healthy.

DFA Geoff Blum, Call Up Wheeler.

Start Parra over Young vs. all Righties

Bait and Switch the Pirates

A New Proposal for the MLB All Star Game

shoewizard — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 05:07:24 -0000

I have a proposal that I believe could breath new life into the all star game and address some of the issues with all star team selection and participation at the same time. I have made this proposal before, but the discussion over this year's Diamondbacks All Star representative prompted me to bring it up again. So what is this grand proposal ?

I believe the All Star Game should become a PRE SEASON EVENT. Specifically, I feel the game should be played either 5 or 10 days prior to the start of the regular season. Having brought this up before in other forums, I am familiar with some of the pros and cons that might be brought up in discussion. While I hope this post will generate some fresh back and forth perspective, after the jump I lay out what I believe will answer some of the concerns with this proposal.

PROS

Player selection: This is the area that will receive the biggest improvement. While rewarding a player for a breakout half season is understandable in many cases, most often those "breakout players" are being rewarded for one breakout month, either followed by or sandwiched in between two average months. Having the benefit of an entire season of play will help fans and coaches make more educated picks, thus increasing the chances truly deserving players get in the game. You'll still have your perennial fan favorites from big market clubs getting selected, even if they had a slightly down year. However you will see fewer one month wonders. And players that come on strong in the second half and finish the year with All Star Caliber numbers will be snubbed far less often.

Player Participation: Currently we see a lot of players beg out of the all star game at the last minute. In the case of pitchers, it's usually because of rotation slot and rest days between starts. Nobody wants to lose a regular season start, or risk injury to a top pitcher. However if the game is held towards the end of spring training, it's much easier for teams to allow a starter who was selected to pitch in the game. The days between starts are more manageable at that point, and also the shorter outing required for an All Star Game Appearance makes it easier to work in as well. For position players, while Spring Injuries and aches and pains do occur, players are not exhausted yet, and are far less likely to bail out of an all star game over a minor ache or fatigue. So overall, the top players will participate at a higher rate.

Keeping Baseball in the news and building excitement for the Season: Right now, by the time the All Star Break rolls around each year, each team has usually played about 90 games. The "buzz' for baseball isn't quite as high as it is when fans have been anxiously waiting for the season to start.

The way this would work is online voting would start after the awards are handed out in November. Teams could also mail All Star Ballots to all their season ticket holders......as another way to nudge them towards renewal. ;). Giving the fans something to DO, to INTERACT WITH, will keep people more engaged with MLB during the off season. While NFL and later March Madness will not be usurped from their prime positions during those months, it will keep MLB in fans consciousness. It's just damn good advertising. Voting updates could be featured on sports programming. Then, once spring training starts, more fans could vote at the ST ballparks. Voting would be cut off around March 10th-15th, and rosters finalized a few days later.

I believe this would help baseball jump start excitement and interest in the game, and lead to higher ratings and attendance at the start of the season.

CONS

"Tradition ! : You can't change the "Mid Summer Classic" to a Spring event, can you ?" Hey Tevye.....get with the program. MLB has been screwing with "Tradition" ever since the start. Rule changes, league changes, length of season, expansion, playoff formats, the DH, etc etc...things NEVER stay the same in MLB. Heck, from 1959-1962 MLB even tried playing TWO all star games during the season.

"Players need the break in the middle of the season" : I agree. How about letting ALL players have a 3 day break in the middle of the season ? Right now you have 70 players plus a bunch of coaches and umpires that don't get a real break as they have to travel to the All Star City, participate in many events, for some, participate in the HR derby, and then of course the game. It's not much of a rest for a lot of the best players in the game that are the most important players to their teams.

The Weather is not conducive to playing games in Late March in the North: This is the biggest issue that I see. It's true. Nobody is going to go to Detroit , Boston, or New York in late March to watch an All Star Game in an outdoor stadium. If this proposal were adopted, the games would need to rotate in southern cities and cities with a roofed stadium. That means that MLB would not be able to give the ASG to every major league city, or use it as a carrot to get teams to build new stadiums. But this seams to work for the NFL super bowl, and it could work for MLB too.

This is the biggest obstacle, and I'm not sure how to overcome it. Anyone have a good ideas ?

Poll

Should MLB Move the All Star Game to late spring training ?

Yes, this is a great proposal, I'm all in !

28 votes

This is a terrible idea, don't change a classic tradition

21 votes

I have another idea, see mine in the comments section

1 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

Ian Kennedy: An Inconvenient Truth

shoewizard — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 08:42:13 -0000

Overall, the trade that brought Ian Kennedy to the Diamondbacks has to be considered a success, recent struggles notwithstanding. Since being traded for Max Scherzer, Ian has fared well in head to head comparisons

IPK: 78 GS, 35-20, 497 IP, 3.47 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.172 WHIP, 7.8 WAR

Max: 77 GS, 32-24, 461 IP 4.24 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1.343 WHIP, 3.7 WAR

And of course they flipped Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson, which for a season and a half worked out great so far, and is already a win, even if Hudson is struggling at the moment.

However, a HUGE chunk of Ian's success has come against the generally weaker hitting NL West teams, and when pitching against non NL West teams, he has been mediocre

IPK: 78 GS, 35-20, 497 IP, 3.47 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.172 WHIP, 7.8 WAR

Max: 77 GS, 32-24, 461 IP 4.24 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1.343 WHIP, 3.7 WAR

And of course they flipped Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson, which for a season and a half worked out great so far, and is already a win, even if Hudson is struggling at the moment.

However, a HUGE chunk of Ian's success has come against the generally weaker hitting NL West teams, and when pitching against non NL West teams, he has been mediocre

	W	L	G	GS	CG	INN	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	35	20	78	78	1	497.1	438	200	192	55	145	441	3.47	.237	.297	.391	.688
vs. NL	33	14	69	69	1	442	371	159	151	44	127	395	3.07	.228	.290	.376	.666
vs. AL	2	6	9	9	0	55.1	67	41	41	11	18	46	6.67	.299	.352	.500	.852
Non NLW	18	15	43	43	1	273.1	258	130	128	37	78	222	4.22

	W	L	G	GS	CG	INN	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. NL West	17	5	35	35	0	224	180	70	64	18	67	219	2.57	.220	.280	.353	.634
vs. NL East	9	4	18	18	1	115	97	38	38	14	37	91	2.97	.230	.300	.394	.695
vs. NL Central	7	5	16	16	0	103	94	51	49	12	23	85	4.28	.242	.299	.404	.702
vs. AL Central	2	2	5	5	0	32.2	36	18	18	7	5	23	4.96	.281	.306	.477	.783
vs. AL East	0	2	2	2	0	11.1	11	10	10	1	10	13	7.94	.256	.411	.395	.806
vs. AL West	0	2	2	2	0	11.1	20	13	13	3	3	10	10.32	.377	.404	.642	1.045

And even when you break down that performance further, you find that Ian's success in the NL West is primarily against the Padres and Giants: In 20 starts he is 12-2, with a 1.99 ERA. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/hbeqE

So you have the following:

Vs Giants and Padres = All Time Great

Vs NL West = All Star

Vs NL East = Solid # 2 Starter

Vs. NL Central = Mediocre innings eater

Vs. AL Central = # 5 Starter, replacement level pitcher

Vs. AL East and West = Terrible, just terrible

I don't know why he struggles vs. AL teams so much. The difference in the quality of the leagues, which is real, and the DH when in AL parks, do not account for his terrible numbers vs. the AL the last 3 years. It was said when he was traded to us that he did not have the stuff to pitch in the AL or AL East. But that doesn't make sense. Not based on watching him pitch. I wish I knew the answer, so I could tell him before his upcoming start against the Angels this weekend.

Brett Butler stands up for Drew's Character and Integrity

shoewizard — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 15:10:47 -0000

But at times has had to battle a reputation for being "soft," a characterization that many believe comes from being the young brother of the injury-prone J.D. Drew. Reno manager Brett Butler made that point on Friday. "One thing about Stephen that you know is that Stephen's got integrity and character," Butler said. "I know there's been a lot of stuff said and whatever, but I've been around the man seven years. I think a lot of times he gets a poor rap because of his brother. I know what kind of character he's got. "Quite frankly, when you talk about a Diamondback player, they talked about (Justin) Upton, but first and foremost, Drew is the face of this club, in character and integrity and what they expect out of a Diamondback player. He's always been that way and always will be."

AZ Central Nick Piecoro

But at times has had to battle a reputation for being "soft," a characterization that many believe comes from being the young brother of the injury-prone J.D. Drew. Reno manager Brett Butler made that point on Friday. "One thing about Stephen that you know is that Stephen's got integrity and character," Butler said. "I know there's been a lot of stuff said and whatever, but I've been around the man seven years. I think a lot of times he gets a poor rap because of his brother. I know what kind of character he's got. "Quite frankly, when you talk about a Diamondback player, they talked about (Justin) Upton, but first and foremost, Drew is the face of this club, in character and integrity and what they expect out of a Diamondback player. He's always been that way and always will be."

AZ Central Nick Piecoro

Justin Upton 2011 vs. 2012

shoewizard — Sun, 03 Jun 2012 07:25:19 -0000

The first line is first 49 games of 2011 and the second is his first 49 games of 2012

210 PA .247/.329/.462 .791 OPS 11 DB, 1 TP, 9 HR 24 RBI, 20 walks 39 K's and 3 HBP

204 PA .249/.348/.376 .724 OPS 7 DB, 0 TP, 5 HR 20 RBI, 24 walks 47 K's and 4 HBP

The biggest differences of course is that he is hitting with less power AND striking out more. But the two batting lines overall are fairly similar. We know Justin can go on a power tear and hit a bunch of homers quickly to catch up to last year's pace. I'm not really worried about the homers. I am more than a little concerned over his K rate going back up. 18.9% at this stage last year, and 23% so far this year.

His overall contact rate is more or less the same so far as it was for the full season last year, which included all his good months too of course. But his contact rate on pitches IN the strike zone is lower than last years career high.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5222&position=OF#platediscipline

He's being pitched to mostly the same way. The breakdown of pitch types is almost identical to last year. But Justin has been struggling MUCH more with curveballs and changeups compared to last year. Damn Crafty lefties !

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5222&position=OF#pitchvalues

In fact, last year Justin struggled against lefties even more than righties in his first 49 games

.233/.365/.419 in 52 PA's with 2 HR

This year the early struggles vs. lefties are slightly worse

.233/.371/.314 in 62 PA's with 1 HR

So comparing last year's first 49 games with this years first 49 games for him is actually a little bit comforting, because he ended up with excellent overall numbers. BUT....of course this year the TEAM is doing much worse through the first 53 team games than last years team, (24-29 vs 29-24) so his early season struggles have hurt the team a lot more, especially since he couldn't get it in gear while CY was out. And lets be clear. His poor performance has HURT this team. They depend on him more than any other position player. They have a lot invested in him. He doesn't have to "carry" the team....but long periods of non productivity and mental lapses should be fading into the background of our distant memory, not persisting like they have been.

I think it's pretty clear that last nights "day off" was a benching due to poor effort, (or perceived poor effort, I don't really know) in Right Field the night before. Whether it was effort, lack of concentration, poor judgement, whatever, it was a craptastic performance in the field Friday night, and until he gets the bat going, he REALLY can't afford to screw up in the field...(or on the bases getting picked off, which happened not long ago too).

This is the last time I am going to say "he's only 24". I realize better than anyone that he is still very young, and his overall career arc could still take a steep upward climb. But you know what ? It's time. We need him NOW. This is OUR time to enjoy the greatness that could be Justin Upton. We have him for 3 1/2 more years, and then he'll most likely be gone. I want to enjoy the next 3 1/2 years and stop talking about how young he is.

I have been a HUGE supporter, both publicly and privately, and that won't stop. But I do feel it's time Justin. C'mon man....LETS GO!

The first line is first 49 games of 2011 and the second is his first 49 games of 2012

210 PA .247/.329/.462 .791 OPS 11 DB, 1 TP, 9 HR 24 RBI, 20 walks 39 K's and 3 HBP

204 PA .249/.348/.376 .724 OPS 7 DB, 0 TP, 5 HR 20 RBI, 24 walks 47 K's and 4 HBP

Working the Montero Comps again

shoewizard — Tue, 29 May 2012 06:20:09 -0000

Probably the last thing anyone wants to read from me is another Montero post. At this point, it's mostly a moot point. He's signed. He's staying at least for a while, (although it's notable there isn't a no trade clause) However I wanted to take one more comprehensive look at potential comps for Montero. This time I opened it wide. I am trying to get as many guys in the sample as possible. So after the jump I'll lay out the logic and thought process applied and we'll see where we end up. I am typing the text as I work, so we are going to find out together how this pans out.

1.) Miguel Montero has been a full time catcher since age 25. From Age 25-27 he had 8 WAR and an OPS+ of 113

2.) I am going to ignore everything that happened before he became a full time catcher. Not really the right way to go about this, but everyone always argues this point, so once again I am going with it.

3.) I ran a search for all Catchers that

A.) Played from Expansion ERA 1961 till now. This puts it in a modern context, more or less. Some would say it's not modern enough, but if you cutoff to just the last 20-25 years, you end up with too small a sample size

B) Ages 25-27. I wanted Catchers that produced at more or less the same rate as Montero for that same 3 year age span

C.) Had at least 6 WAR (Over 2 per season) but no more than 10. This captures guys that were somewhat less and somewhat more productive than Montero

D.) OPS+ over 100. I didn't want guys that had no bat but all defensive value. A decent sized chunk of that value had to come from offense.

E.) Played at least 85% of their games at Catcher. I didn't want guys that played too much DH, 3b, Lf, etc, because if they played that much at other positions that young it meant they weren't going to stay at catcher long anyway.

F.) I deleted Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, Geovany Soto, Montero himself, and Brian Downing. The first 3 are contemporaries and close in age, and Dowing didn't catch much starting from age 28. That left 16 players

So here is the link and list, ranked by WAR accumulated from ages 25-27, and also showing the OPS+

Table 1

Player            OPS+ WAR/pos   G   PA   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Rick Wilkins       120     9.7 319 1132 .271 .350 .471 .820
Tim McCarver       108     9.5 404 1583 .270 .331 .389 .720
John Stearns       106     9.5 437 1686 .252 .347 .387 .734
Carlton Fisk       128     9.3 266 1068 .280 .347 .486 .834
Tom Haller         124     8.8 314 1121 .256 .353 .453 .806
John Romano        130     8.7 277 1128 .281 .370 .481 .851
Todd Hundley       126     8.3 334 1273 .259 .349 .505 .855
Jim Pagliaroni     119     8.2 323 1092 .266 .350 .425 .775
Jason Kendall      108     8.2 387 1684 .300 .384 .431 .816
Johnny Edwards     107     8.1 388 1446 .268 .334 .410 .745
Clay Dalrymple     102     8.0 392 1401 .255 .341 .374 .715
Rich Gedman        103     7.7 331 1230 .267 .327 .431 .758
Javy Lopez         118     7.6 394 1524 .287 .336 .512 .848
Jody Davis         105     7.1 431 1595 .263 .315 .437 .752
A.J. Pierzynski    102     6.2 398 1512 .295 .338 .438 .776
Mike Napoli        124     6.1 267  969 .266 .357 .505 .862

So, how did this group of players do from age 28 through 33, which is the age Montero is this year and through the end of his contract ? Here are the key data points from the playing record of these comparable players:

The average Line was 98 G, 359 PA, 1.6 WAR, 99 OPS+, .261/323/.403 .726 OPS
5 of the 16 players averaged over 100 G Played, or 31%
7 of the 16 players averaged over 100 OPS+, or 44%
6 of the 16 players averaged over 2.5 WAR, or 38%
In other words there was about a 1 in 3 chance that the player would play at a level that would meet or exceed the value of Montero's new contract
4 of 15 players, or 27% did not make it to age 33 (Does not include Napoli who is only 30)
6 of 16 players, or 38% averaged LESS than 1 WAR per season.
5 of 16 players, or 31% averaged less than 80 games played
6 of 16 players, or 38% averaged less than 90 OPS+
In other words, there was about a 1 in 3 chance that the player suffered severe decline due to injury, poor performance, or both

Here is the table

Player	Thru age	OPS+	WAR	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Wilkins	33	82	0.4	50	174	219	321	356	676
McCarver	33	97	3.0	96	297	264	337	366	703
Stearns	32	103	1.5	56	216	282	342	374	716
Fisk	33	119	3.8	127	518	282	257	455	812
Haller	33	113	3.0	134	492	262	338	410	749
Romano	32	114	1.5	93	321	229	340	406	746
Hundley	33	106	0.6	93	335	231	329	465	794
Pagliaroni	31	98	0.8	72	235	235	327	362	689
Kendall	33	90	2.8	145	624	291	362	357	720
Edwards	33	68	0.4	110	370	272	290	311	601
Dalrymple	33	75	0.9	76	244	213	309	302	611
Gedman	32	60	-0.4	65	196	206	270	308	578
Lopez	33	117	2.8	119	466	293	348	504	852
Davis	33	83	1.0	99	364	230	299	381	681
Pierzynski	33	89	1.2	134	526	278	316	415	731
Napoli	30	137	2.5	98	367	270	357	529	886
AVG	32.5	99	1.6	98	359	261	323	403	726

Summary:

I probably should have removed Napoli too, but I figured what the heck, at least he has 2+ seasons past age 27 under his belt, and if anything including him helps inflate the numbers. The OPS and WAR avearges would take a hit without him in there.

The thing that probably stands out here is that there isn't too much of a chance that Montero EXCEEDS the value of this contract. Unless you think he is "breaking out" and getting better and going from strength to strength, i.e. turning into Carlton Fisk or even a Javy Lopez. . (Sorry...no steroids allowed) I certainly would not be able to draw that conclusion from his first 1/3 of the season. The chance that he meets the value of the contract are about equal to the chance that he severely under performs it, with the balance probability that he moderately under performs the deal.

33% Meets contract Value
33% Moderately under performs
33% Severely under performs contract value

Wouldn't you rather that the team be awarding the biggest contract in team history to a player that at least has somewhat of a chance to exceed the contract value ?

Who should replace Collmenter in the rotation ?

shoewizard — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 08:33:46 -0000

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the one thing that Collmenter had going for him more than any other last year, pinpoint control and command, has deserted him. Not only is he walking more guys, but he is leaving balls belt high over the middle of the plate and getting hammered. He's been doing it since spring, and something is wrong. It could be mechanical, physical, or mental. But whatever it is, he needs to go work it out somewhere else. Last year is over.

I'm moving on, whether the team is ready to or not. So I thought I'd poll everyone on his replacement in the rotation. keeping Collmenter in the rotation is not an option in the poll. Some won't like that. Sorry. I put the same poll up on the bullpen, but not many readers/posters there any more. So lets see what the gang here thinks.

After the jump, some links to some useful pages and the poll

A handy little thread at the bullpen with short re caps that chronicle the exploits of our minor pitchers on a nightly basis.

http://forum.diamondbacksbullpen.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1153

And here are the Mobile and Reno Stat pages if anyone wants to look before voting

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=417&stn=true&sid=t417

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=t_ibp&cid=2310

And finally, here is the 40 man roster page, as you need to take that into account too.

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=ari

Poll

Who should replace Collmenter in the rotation

Tyler Skaggs

11 votes

Patrick Corbin

34 votes

Barry Enright

11 votes

Charles Brewer

2 votes

Trevor Bauer

48 votes

Wade Miley

58 votes

Someone else

0 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

Interesting Bauer Comments from Nick's Blog

shoewizard — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 23:28:41 -0000

Interesting Bauer Comments from Nick's Blog

I didn't see these comments highlighted anywhere else.

Catcher Miguel Montero made some comments yesterday about right-hander Trevor Bauer needing to learn how to pitch hitters. There was something about his tone that sounded almost critical of Bauer, rather than him talking about a pitcher going through the normal maturation process.

Then this morning, manager Kirk Gibson mentioned how Bauer was late going through his pre-start warm-up routine, to the point that he had to rush things to be ready to deliver the first pitch on time.

"First of all, he was late getting warmed up," Gibson said this morning. "I think he probably got to the pen about 1 p.m. So he was late with his routine. That was on him."

Maybe people with the team are trying to dial down expectations on him – Gibson has always been sensitive to that kind of stuff, given that he was called "the next Mickey Mantle" – or they’re trying to show us that he’s not quite ready for the major leagues.

Or maybe there’s more to it, like there’s some sort of resentment to the hype/attention that has accompanied Bauer and his unusual ways.

Bauer seemed sort of baffled this afternoon when a couple reporters asked him about being a little behind schedule yesterday.

"I don’t know if it affected my performance at all," he said. "Could have, could not have. But when it comes down to it, they didn’t really hit a ball hard. It was one of those days where the broken-bat hits fall and the ground ball, instead of being a double play to the second baseman, rolls through the hole."

Anyway, maybe I’m reading too much into this, but it just seems like there already are people questioning the way Bauer does things, and he hasn’t even had a chance to see if they work or don’t work at the pro level.

All we know so far is he’s thrown pretty well in his first big league camp, giving up four runs in 10 innings, with one walk and nine strikeouts. If he continues pitching well or if he struggles, it’ll be interesting either way.

Fangraphs ranks D backs rotation 20th in Baseball

shoewizard — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 23:40:14 -0000

Fangraphs ranks D backs rotation 20th in Baseball

David Cameron writes:

Along with the Reds placement, this is the one that I expect to ruffle the most feathers. The D’Backs were one of just six teams to get 1,000+ innings out of their rotation last year, and with Kennedy and Hudson at the front end and Bauer and Skaggs on the way, it’s not like there’s age related decline to worry about. But, in reality, the D’Backs staff just overperformed last year relative to their talent levels, and ZIPS expects some real steps backwards in 2012. Replacing Collmenter and Saunders with the young kids could lead to some real improvement, but Arizona doesn’t have as much depth here as they think, and their front-end guys aren’t as good as their performances last year made them look. There’s certainly potential for a really good rotation in Arizona, but it might come in 2013 instead of 2012.

Whats the deal with Josh Collmenter ?

shoewizard — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:07:13 -0000

Josh Collmenter had an excellent Rookie season. His 3.38 ERA , (117 ERA+) were very good. His WHIP was an excellent 1.069. He did a great job at keeping runners off base.

The underlying peripherals are very interesting, and while not unique, presented a somewhat rare statistical profile last year. Specifically, his walks per 9, and his BABIP were extremely low. These two numbers were the underpinning of his success, as his HR/9 and K/9 were a little worse than league average.

	Collmenter	Lge. Avg
BABIP	.260	.296
BB/9	1.63	3.1
K/9	5.83	7.3
HR/9	0.99	0.90

How do the numbers in his first MLB season compare to his minor league career ?

	Majors	Minors
BABIP	.260	.293
BB/9	1.63	3.1
K/9	5.83	8.2
HR/9	0.99	0.60

So how rare is it for a pitcher to have this kind of BABIP and walk combo ? Pretty rare.

In 2011, there were only two pitchers to throw at least 140 IP and have a BABIP under .270 and a BB/9 under 1.70, Collmenter and Josh Tomlin.

Note: I really encourage people to follow the links and study the tables.

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/CcdIY

In the last 20 years there have been 18 such season, (3 by Greg Maddux). Tomlin and Collmenter are the first guys to do it since 2005

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/RTQQB

What about going forward ? How likely is it that Collmenter can continue to have a BABIP under .270 ? It's been said that he is "tough to square up". Thats certainly true to some degree. He is a fly ball pitcher, and the vast majority of the flyballs he allows were very catchable balls last years. His minor league BABIP of .293, while much higher than last years, is still better than the average minor league BABIP, which is usually higher than it is in MLB. (Better fielders in MLB of cours e).

How many pitchers in the last 20 years have thrown at least 400 IP in the majors and had a sub .270 BABIP ?

TEN PITCHERS IN 20 YEARS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN A SUB .270 BABIP FOR ANY REASONABLE PERIOD OF TIME

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/B0SMT

As a side note, the guy on that list that I most liken Collmenter to is Chris Young, formerly of San Diego. He had several years where he was really effective when he could actually post up and pitch. He was tough to pick up like Josh, and also an extreme flyball pitcher. But back injuries killed his career.

So what about the walk rate ?

EIGHT PITCHERS IN 20 YEARS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN A BB/9 RATE UNDER 1.70 FOR ANY REASONABLE PERIOD OF TIME

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/QPHPc

And finally, what about the combination of low BABIP and low walks ? Well, you have to bring the BABIP up to about .285 to get anyone on the list at all.

BABIP LESS than .285, BB/9 Less than 1.7

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/Opkrv

CONCLUSION:

Well, I really don't have a hard and fast conclusion. Obviously I am prone to think that some regression to Collmenter's BABIP and Walk Rate are higly likely, or I wouldn't be posting this. The added baserunners would certainly drive up his runs allowed. On the other hand, he may continue to develop his curveball and increase his K Rate, allowing fewer balls in play, somewhat offsetting an expected regression to his BABIP. But if his BABIP goes up to say .290, which would still be better than league avg, and his BB/9 goes to 2.5, then you would be looking at about 27 more baserunners in the same 154 IP

That would mean an increase in WHIP to about 1.25. And you know what ? Thats still pretty good. As long as the HR rate doesn't spike, he can be a decent run preventer with that kind of profile.

I think some of the early projections for an ERA around league average are pretty reasonable. And who knows, maybe he can continue to throw strikes as effectively as he did last year while adding wrinkles to his arsenal. If he can do that, keeping an ERA south of 3.50 is not out of the question.

Good luck Josh. Keep throwing strikes no matter what. And keep working on that curveball.

Josh Collmenter had an excellent Rookie season. His 3.38 ERA , (117 ERA+) were very good. His WHIP was an excellent 1.069. He did a great job at keeping runners off base.

	Collmenter	Lge. Avg
BABIP	.260	.296
BB/9	1.63	3.1
K/9	5.83	7.3
HR/9	0.99	0.90

How do the numbers in his first MLB season compare to his minor league career ?

	Majors	Minors
BABIP	.260	.293
BB/9	1.63	3.1
K/9	5.83	8.2
HR/9	0.99	0.60

So how rare is it for a pitcher to have this kind of BABIP and walk combo ? Pretty rare.

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/CcdIY

In the last 20 years there have been 18 such season, (3 by Greg Maddux). Tomlin and Collmenter are the first guys to do it since 2005

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/RTQQB

How many pitchers in the last 20 years have thrown at least 400 IP in the majors and had a sub .270 BABIP ?

TEN PITCHERS IN 20 YEARS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN A SUB .270 BABIP FOR ANY REASONABLE PERIOD OF TIME

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/B0SMT

So what about the walk rate ?

EIGHT PITCHERS IN 20 YEARS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN A BB/9 RATE UNDER 1.70 FOR ANY REASONABLE PERIOD OF TIME

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/QPHPc

And finally, what about the combination of low BABIP and low walks ? Well, you have to bring the BABIP up to about .285 to get anyone on the list at all.

BABIP LESS than .285, BB/9 Less than 1.7

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/Opkrv

CONCLUSION:

That would mean an increase in WHIP to about 1.25. And you know what ? Thats still pretty good. As long as the HR rate doesn't spike, he can be a decent run preventer with that kind of profile.

Good luck Josh. Keep throwing strikes no matter what. And keep working on that curveball.

Should the D Backs have tried to sign Jose Reyes ?

shoewizard — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 00:59:29 -0000

I've been criticized for criticizing many of the teams recent moves. The crux of my criticism has been that the team has signed a lot of position players and committed a lot of money, but has not improved at any STARTING positions. Specifically they have committed 35 million to 6 postion players covering 10 contract years for 2012-2013.

MLB Trade Rumors Tracker

Where I have been challenged is to show what I would have done instead. While that is never an exact exercise to engage in, because without personally speaking to other GM's, or player's agents, I have no idea who might have been available in a trade, or which players would even consider playing for Arizona., I'm still going to give it a try

MLB Trade Rumors Tracker

On November 3rd I wrote in the John Macdonald signing thread:

I’d still give up all the MacDonalds/ Bloomquists/Mora’s/Nady’s/Blums/Branyans/Overbays/Hills of the world to pay Jose Reyes, and then fill out the roster with the 430K per year guys we have in the system.If you have Reyes and Drew makes a comeback, you move him to 2b

Given the fact that the team is bereft of any top tier middle infield talent prospects up through the minors, they needed to go out and sign Jose Reyes. Of course it would have been risky, as the guy has had his share of injury troubles the last two years . However he is still only 29 and when healthy, is one of the most dynamic players in the game. He would immediately upgrade the team in many areas. Even while playing in only 126 games last year he managed a 5.8 WAR season last year. Reyes has 4 seasons of 5+ WAR in the last 6. Here is his PA's and WAR per season since becoming a full time player at age 22.

Year Age PA WAR

2005 22 733 1.7

2006 23 703 5.9

2007 24 765 5.4

2008 25 763 5.3

2009 26 166 0.7

2010 27 603 2.3

2011 28 586 5.8

One WAR on the FA market is worth approx 4.5 Million. Even with missing most of 2009, he has managed to put up 8.8 WAR over the last 3 seasons, which was worth just north of 39 million. Reyes has averaged 3.8 WAR per season over the last 7 seasons. Or in other words, 17.1 Million per season of value.

Reyes signed for 6 yrs, 106 million Guaranteed with the Marlins. The avg annual is 17.67 Mil per year. But it's heavily backloaded, as only 36 million is to be paid out over the first 3 years.

2012 10.0

2013 10.0

2014 16.0

2015 22.0

2016 22.0

2017 22.0

* Team has option for 22 million for 2018, or 4 million buyout

By the time you get to 2015 and beyond, MLB Salary inflation, as well as real world inflation would probably give you a WAR valuation of 5.5-6.0 Mil per WAR. That means Reyes would need to average 3.5- 4.0 WAR over the last 3 years of the contract to be worth the back loaded portion of the contract......which is unlikely. However if he averages 4 WAR per season over the first 3 Years, he out earns the contract by so much that it clearly works out. For the life of the contract, if Reyes gives your team 21 WAR, or IOW averages 3.5 WAR for the life of the contract, then he will have "earned the contract".

This does not take into account any potential tangible benefits of this signing possibly putting the team over the top in 2012-2013 while all the other top position talent is locked up and the cheap pitching talent is emerging.

Had they signed Reyes, they simply forgo signing Kubel, Hill, and Bloomquist. That saves 31 million over the next two seasons and almost pays for all of Reyes' first THREE seasons. You still sign McDonald perhaps, and when Drew comes back you play him at either 3rd or 2nd, wherever he fits best, and move Roberts to the other spot. You give the 4th outfielder spot to Cole Gillepsie to spell Parra in left, or you go and sign Reed Johnson for 1.5-2 million, which is more than he got from the Cubs.

Reyes SS

Drew 3b/2b

Upton RF

Montero C

Goldschmit 1b

Young CF

Parra LF

Roberts 2b/3b

Blanco C

Overbay 1b/PH

MacDonald SS/2b/3b

Gillespie/Reed LF/CF/RF

Blum Util/PH

Now of course come 2015, you DO have to contend with the fact that Reyes is going to get 22 million per season, but one or two deep playoff runs between 2014-2014 plus a new T.V. contract make that affordable.

A gamble ? Yes....but not as much as people think, as I think I've demonstrated above.

That is the route I would have gone with this team.

MLB HOMEGROWN What if there were no trades? No waivers, no minor- or major-league free agency?...

shoewizard — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:32:32 -0000

MLB HOMEGROWN

What if there were no trades? No waivers, no minor- or major-league free agency? Once a player becomes a professional, he stays with his original organization for the duration of his career.

In this month-long series, our blog crew will take a look at all 30 team rosters. And, once we're done, well go back and rank them all from worst to first. To track the series, follow us on Twitter @EyeOnBaseball or subscribe to the RSS feed

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/homegrown

Who will have better 2012 Season, Bauer or Skaggs ?

shoewizard — Sat, 31 Dec 2011 06:26:50 -0000

Simple question:

Who will have the better 2012 season, Trevor Bauer or Tyler Skaggs ? By definition, producing anything above replacement level in the majors trumps anything that is done in the minors.

Bauer showed off his great stuff in both Visalia and Mobile, striking out 43 in 25.2 IP, for an incredible 15.1 K/9. But he was undone a bit by walks, (12 of them or 4.2 per nine) 3 homers, and especially a .429 BABIP in Mobile. His FIP was less than half his 5.96 ERA

Skaggs, who is 6 months younger than Bauer, had the more "accomplished" season, winning minor league pitcher of the year for the organization. 11.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 4.04 k?bb ration, to go along with just a 0.6 HR/9 actually gave Skaggs a lower FIP than ERA for the season.

Simple question:

Who will have the better 2012 season, Trevor Bauer or Tyler Skaggs ? By definition, producing anything above replacement level in the majors trumps anything that is done in the minors.

Poll

Who will have better 2012, Bauer or Skaggs

Bauer

79 votes

Skaggs

80 votes

159 votes | Poll has closed

Two Super Hot Streaks Define Season So Far

shoewizard — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 04:44:59 -0000

The D Backs season is defined by two super hot streaks.

After starting the season 15-22, they reeled off a 15-2 streak to vault into the NL West race.

They then played up and down ball for 2 1/2 months, a little more up than down, as they went 39-34 from June 1-August 22nd.

On August 23rd they started a 18-3 streak, that ended on September 13th.

They have now lost 3 straight since September 14th.

Their record in the two hot streaks is 33-5. Their record outside those two streaks is 54-59

Don't get me wrong, you have to be a pretty decent team to have two such hot streaks. But with 10 games left, and the team in a serious hitting slump, they need to pull out of it NOW, and win at least 5 of their remaining 10, and force the Giants to win out, which is unlikely of course.

Fortuntely for us, Pittsburgh has been playing some pretty bad baseball since the end of July, and has struggled on the road too, (14-34 since July 29, 6-15 on the road since that date).

If the team salvages a game tomorrow in the SD series, and wins 2 of 3 from Pittsburgh as they should, it pretty much forces the Giants to come into Chase Field and sweep to have a chance to catch us. But if we lose tomorrow, and lose 2 of 3 to Pittsburgh, then it will be pretty much the unraveling of the season happening before your eyes and the D Backs holding on for dear life against the Giants next weekend with their hands wrapped firmly around their throats.

MLB Top Historic Collapses

shoewizard — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 22:45:22 -0000

MLB Top Historic Collapses

Pretty "cool" table showing biggest collapses of all time. Of course the most famous among them are the 51 Dodgers, the 64 Phillies, but numerically, some came out higher than those.

In case you were wondering, the 2008 D Backs clock in at number 59