SB Nation User Blog: shwa

Controversy?

shwa — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 20:33:50 -0000

Over at NBA.com, this guy John Schuhmann blogs from time to time. He mentions the Rudy dunk ON Dwight as being one of the best highlights from one of the best games ever.

At the end of the piece, you'll notice one guy comments:

Kobe Bryant will admit that the dunk that Rudy had on Dwight was his mistake, so let's not make it like Howard was there on time to contest the dunk. Looks to me like he is almost defending him after the dunk.

Looks to me like this guy didn't even watch that game and he is deriving his conclusion from this still photograph. Had he taken the time to watch the dunk in its entirety, he would likely have to admit that it qualifies as a baptizing for both Rudy and Dwight. Rudy did something every European wing player could only dream of, and Dwight got dunked on for the first time in international competition.

For me, this dunk is an obvious facial and one of the many dunks I will never forget for as long as I live. Yes, Kobe went for that old-man-ymca-slap-the-back-of-your-hand-trick and looked ridiculous in the process. It's a move he would rarely make in the NBA against great guards with excellent ball-handling abilities. He would only look to make that move against an inferior ball-handler, which leads me to believe that he didn't have as much respect for Rudy as has been suggested. Kobe also looked bad as he held up his hands (except unlike Jordan hitting a 3 in Cliff's face, his teammate got dunked on because of his own error) while Rudy hung from the rim for the And1. He was probably astonished because he thought that even if his gamble didn't result in a steal or turnover, Dwight had his back and could stop anyone from getting to the rack. Kobe's blunder was therefore caused by a combination of underestimating Rudy and overestimating Dwight (which he knows better than to do since even he dunked on Dwight...I guess he overestimates himself too because even Rudy can dunk on Dwight).

And about Dwight: What truly makes this a facial, posterizing, "dunk on", or parachute as I like to call it, is the simple fact that Dwight committed wholly to stopping it and came up empty ended (And1). If you watch the above-provided link, you'll notice that Dwight takes a full two steps before somewhat awkwardly jumping off his left leg. He doesn't explode from the floor and he's coming from an awkward angle, but he still fully commits to the block attempt with his left hand and comes up about 6-12 inches shy of the soaring ball. Dwight was also out of position and came too far out from under the basket, perhaps not giving enough credit to the speed of Spain's best player.

I hope this quells any improbable debate of whether Superman did or did not get dunked on, posterized, parachuted, t-bagged, etc. The new debate in my opinion is whether in fact the real Superman was the one dunking. In any case, here's a poll for you so you can click your mouse too and feel interactive:

Poll

Did Dwight Howard get dunked on by Rudy Fernandez?

Yes

92 votes

Of course

105 votes

It could have been CGI

33 votes

230 votes | Poll has closed

ESPN Rankings

shwa — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 17:18:50 -0000

I know everyone was jubilated by our over-ranking on USA Today (which had has ranked 5th in the league before next season). ESPN released their rankings today and it arguably is more realistic, placing lower expectations on our group of youngsta's.

From fifth in The League to 8th in the West is a pretty big jump. One thing that remains the same is that either way we are predicted to make the playoffs. This may not come as a surprise to most of us since we would all like to see our guys there. After all, LAST YEAR they went a very respectable 41-41 in arguably one of the NBA's toughest conferences in history. We should expect an improvement even if we had the exact same team from last year--you know--that one with the two JJs that're gone now. But with the fresh additions of Oden, Bayless, and Rudy, one could reasonably expect that--chemistry issues aside--our talent increasing will lead to our wins increasing--eventually. Where how long is unknown, we DO expect greatness--at least I do--eventually.

From this standpoint, I would have to argue that I see the Blazers winning more than just 3 games on top of their win total from last season. With the same young group growing from last season I would expect a 3 game improvement. With THIS group, I would expect at least a 5 game improvement (Oden alone should account for this many games if healthy). Personally, I'm HOPING (or dreaming depending on your interpretation) for an improvement of TEN games, giving us a 51-31 record for next season.

So this all of course just begs the question:

Poll

Which publication's rankings is more likely to reflect the Blazers' record next season?

USA TODAY (5th in League)

66 votes

ESPN (8th in West)

134 votes

200 votes | Poll has closed

Count the MINUTES!

shwa — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 02:47:51 -0000

48 minutes in a basketball game x 5 players = 240 minutes of game time for our roster next season assuming of course the games end in regulation. Based on our return players' numbers from last year and the predicted amount of necessary minutes for our stellar rooks, let's break down the minutes and see who's going to get shafted nest season. For the sake of simple accounting, I'll be rounding all predicted minutes.

First, let's start with the big three:

Brandon Roy - 37 MINUTES (assuming all goes well tomorrow morning!)- Last year Mr. (future) Wheaties Box averaged 37.7 minutes per game. With the arrival of Bayless and Rudy you may reasonably expect to see a slight dip in minutes so he can rest while those young guns run it. It's tough to know how necessary it will be to have him play major minutes for the simple purpose of steadying the ship. My prediction is that he'll see a similar amount of court time this year and less next year when Bayless and Rudy have a more polished role with one year of experience under their belt.

Greg Oden - 28 MINUTES - I would rather see Oden play either 48 minutes or 15. I want him to want to play as much as possible immediately to dispel any notion that he's not healthy or injury prone. I want to see him dunk on many faces and have just as many posters hanging in my living room. However I also want him to be playing with us when it really matters- like the NBA finals for the next 15 years. Better to play it safe and keep him under 30 minutes, especially since Pryzbilla really is as formidable a backup center as there is in the league.

LaMarcus Aldridge - 35 MINUTES - Last season TheMancus averaged 34.9 minutes and I don't expect that to change much. I'd like to see him out there as much as possible, but just as with Oden there's really no need to burn him out unnecessarily. If Channing Frye can play remotely close to how he was balling at the end of last season, then he deserves at least 20 minutes himself. Not sure if Ike Diogu is worthy of minutes yet, but if so then that should cut into LMA's time as well. Unlike last year however, it appears the Blazers want Travis to stay at the 3, so that's a few more minutes at the 4 possibly for Ike (if we're winning by a good margin).

So...37 + 28 + 35 = 100 MINUTES for our Big 3 alone, which leaves 140 minutes left for the likes of Rudy, Martell, Travis, Channing, Bayless, Blake, Pryzbilla, Sergio, Batum, Diogu, and LaFrentz. I like our whole team and wish everyone could get in, but for the sake of staying under the 240 minute threshold, NO MINUTES of mine will be awarded to RLEC, Ike, or Batum. With that said, here's the breakdown of minutes for the rest:

Travis Outlaw - 24 MINUTES - Not sure if Travis or Martell will see more minutes, but last year Travis got 26.6 while Marty got 28.4. With Rudy demanding minutes in a possible 3-guard rotation and Travis moving solely to the 3, one would expect both Travis and Martell to lose at least a lil' playing time. My solution is to split the 48 SF minutes equally between Travis and Martell, since by position at least there's really no one else deserving of those minutes although undoubtedly Batum will garner a few here and there.

Martell Webster - 24 MINUTES - See above. I love Webster and he deserves a bump up to 30 a game since he's our only 3 point specialist (now that JJ is gone) and can arguably defend the perimeter better than Outlaw at this point. But there's just not enough minutes to let him see many in the 2nd half. I think he'll start, but Outlaw will get all the minutes in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Hopefully Marty can get a couple more 26-pt 3rd quarters next season since that'll be his only opportunity to do so.

Rudy Fernandez - 20 MINUTES - I pessimistically foresee Rudy getting shafted on minutes this season. Hopefully he plays well enough to get all of Jack's minutes (over 20) from last season, but it'll be tough with our line-up. Some promises were made in order to get him to come here and it'd be nice to see him happy, but as long as Rudy's entire extended family have access to a SPAM credit card, he just might have to live with it. I suspect he may end up more in the 14-18 minute range, but I hope he's good enough that Nate can't help but give him at least 20.

Channing Frye - 20 MINUTES - It appears Frye could be poised to have a breakout or bust type of season. His work ethic, attitude and general abilities cannot be questioned. He's been putting in hard work in the weight room and everyone appears to love the guy. He's developing a 3 point shot too apparently. All this would indicate that he's deserving of 24 minutes a game as well, but that just doesn't seem realistic. Last season he got 17.2 minutes of action and I think he'll see a little more since Travis will supposedly no longer be playing the 4 and he may see some action at Center if we want to play really up-tempo. Frye's challenge will be to remain effective and hustle with the limited minutes he gets. As a jump-shooter, it's easier to hit shots when you're warm and have been running around for awhile--a luxury Frye won't really have playing behind TheMancus. Furthermore, this is a contract year for Frye, so if we want to keep him for awhile it might actually be in our favor to keep his stats down and hide his true value so he doesn't receive any uber-offers from other clubs and we can keep him on the cheap. Signing him to a multi-year contract like Outlaw's (4M per season) would be a great value, and he'd probably take it if he indeed loves it here as much as he says he does.

Joel Pryzbilla - 16 MINUTES - As the only true Center on our squad last year, Joel still only played half the game. His 23.6 minutes from last season are sure to go down with the arrival of the Great One. If my prediction comes true and Oden sees 28 minutes of play, that leaves 20 available at the Center position. It'd be nice to have the overwhelming presence of one of our bigs on the court at all times, however foul problems and certain game scenarios will dictate a smaller line-up with Frye at the 5. Thus the 16 minutes.

So...at this juncture we have 100 (big 3) + 24 + 24+ 20 + 20 + 16 = 204 MINUTES. By that count, there's only 36 minutes left and we've yet to discuss the PG position. I'm okay with allotting less than a full game's worth of minutes to the PG position because I have a desire to see Brandon and Rudy play the 1-2 for about 12 minutes a game. That way Rudy can get the bulk of his minutes developing alongside Brandon instead of as his brief replacement.

Steve Blake - 16 MINUTES - Blake will likely start the season and will probably play the point when Oden is in the game, that way we can run our slow show with Blake, Roy, Webster, Aldridge and Oden. My initial instinct was to give Blake more minutes than Bayless, but Blake will have Jerryd biting his ankles all season long. Sergio could also be deserving of more minutes if he and Rudy click together. I don't see Blake as the type to have a problem with limited minutes, but 16 per game is a far cry from his 29.9 last season.

Jerryd Bayless - 16 MINUTES - The summer league MVP will be a great player and could take over the starting role by season's end. He can score, this much we know. If he can pass and lead an effective fast break, his value will soar sky-high. I see him playing a lot of minutes with the 2nd unit alongside Rudy, Travis, Frye, and Joel. That may be too many scorers for one unit, but I'd love to see those guys get up and down with Joel as the anchor. Bayless could also steal minutes from Rudy if he ends up looking like the better prospect of the two.

Sergio Rodriguez - 4 MINUTES - I know the shooting coach paid him a personal visit. I know his friend and fellow countryman's arrival should make him more comfortable. Nonetheless, Sergio will have a tough time seeing action next season. If we had kept Rush and not traded for Bayless, Jack would've gone via some other facet and Sergio may have been able to step in as the primary back-up to Blake. The bright side is, should any of our guards get injured (knock on wood, but with two rookie guards like Rudy and Bayless, you wouldn't expect either to play all 82 games), Sergio will be a very serviceable replacement. If he can run the pick and roll half as well with Oden as he did with Jamal Magloire he should be good for at least 5 assists for every 5 minutes of action. The only hope for Sergio is if Bayless keeps his head down and sucks at running the break, because we know Sergio is a high energy guy that at least can get up and down the court and find open players. As it stands, Sergio's limited 8.8 minutes from last season appear poised to be cut in half.

THAT'S IT! 240! If only there were 5 fifths to a game instead of 4 quarters!

It was really tough to diplomatically dispense these minutes as a fan, so imagine how hard Nate's job is going to be next year. Rudy and Bayless will be rooks, but both are extremely competitive and will likely be unhappy with less than 20 minutes each. Travis and Martell will want more minutes than those rooks simply because they've been here longer and are very talented/promising players in their own right. Sergio, Joel, and Blake will be the most shafted in minutes compared to what they played last season. Martell and Travis are developing players that would like to have more minutes than last season, but they will likely see a dip in minutes as well.

Luckily, the team we have now is not the team we had 5 years ago. That team would have had a mutiny if minutes were slashed. This Blazers group now is young, cool, and poised...at least we hope so. Winning will be the best remedy for lack of playing time. The Big 3's going to get theirs and that's what matters most, but we're going to need the best out of our role players this year. My guess is whoever does the best with the limited minutes they get will be the ones that are still here in a couple years. As presently constructed, it's tough to imagine this team growing together while continually sacrificing minutes for each other. But we'll save that speculation for another post.

So...do my esteemed colleagues here on BEdge agree with this assessment? Who do you think deserves more or less minutes than I predicted? Hopefully every game we play this year goes into triple-overtime so that everyone can have their time to shine.

-shwa

Final cuts for the future

shwa — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 21:33:15 -0000

Most of you have probably checked out Quick's blog series. I recently heard him interviewed here.

At one point, Quick suggests it is the intention of KP to whittle the roster down to an 8-man rotation. The never-ending fire of speculation of who will and who won't be here long term appears to have been given a fresh duraflame.

By my subjective count, I see at least ten players worthy of if not commanding major minutes next season. Here they are, in order of my preference.

1. Brandon Roy SG

2. Greg Oden C

3. LaMarcus Aldridge PF

4. Rudy Fernandez G (he was promised minutes was he not?)

5. Travis Outlaw SF (although Bayless will help with scoring off the bench)

6. Martell Webster SF (the most important season of his career)

7. Joel Pryzbilla C (Oden, Jr.)

8. Channing Frye PF

9. Steve Blake PG (many will argue he belongs further up, I disagree)

10. Jerryd Bayless PG

That's a pretty darn good top ten, and ALL of our other players will assuredly get some limited minutes as well. Sergio, Ike, Batum, and even Raef will all see at least some minutes, with Batum likely seeing the least. I would love to see Spanish Chocolate play alongside Rudy but that will be hard to justify in most scenarios. When we are up big early, I think they should utilize that duo to keep the pace of the game up and continue scoring because we did have trouble keeping leads last season (see philly) due to complacency.

So the question is, of my top ten players, whom do you see in another uniform by the time we're hanging banners? I have a suspicion many of you will say Martell and Blake because that's where I'm leaning. Blake is a great vet for this team now, but will he be okay chillin' on the bench while Bayless rips it up? Martell I personally love, but he may get squeezed if Rudy is as good as advertised. I don't see us giving up Travis and if Rudy comes in splashing 3s everywhere, it won't bode well for Martell especially given his contract scenario at season's end.

So, who is your 8 man rotation for the future? Who have you left out and why?

Team USA thoughts

shwa — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 22:09:26 -0000

Yes it was Canada. Yes it didn't count for anything. Still good to see our boys put one on Joel Anthony and rest of the mounties. Hard to say which USA players were most impressive since they all were.

One major stand-out is Michael Redd. USA will need consistent shooting from the closer 3 point line. For the most part, Redd was money (6-8 3s, 20 pts.). Couldn't help but think to myself as he swished in his third in a row at one point, "Damn, wonder if he could be that quality vet we need?" With the Bucks getting RJefferson, do they really need Redd and his huge contract? They may pull a Denver and be willing to deal Redd just for cap relief, who knows?

James Jones left a hole and we know it. We hope that void can be filled by Webster and Rudy, and we'll use at least half of this upcoming year trying to find out if that'll work. Personally, I really hope it does. I still love Martell and wouldn't want to see him anywhere else. But if we're going to send off a gunslinger, it might as well be to Milwaukee where he can't punish us for at least the immediate future. I like Rudy for now as well. Love the YouTube highlights and if Sasha Vujacic can get 5 mil a year for 3 years on a championship-contending team, Rudy should be able to be at least that productive in the league.

Regardless, as Dave has mentioned, we might as well spend the money we have while we can. In which case, try to trade Raef and Martell for Redd by February or hope Redd doesn't get traded before the end of next season and then try and get him. He's a vet who is lights out when left alone. No team can afford not to keep a man on him at all times. It would free up more space to operate inside for the LaModen.

I'm not saying Martell won't be better than Redd, he'll definitely be around longer if nothing else. But Redd has a lot of respect as a shooter in this league. Would you do it you lil faux-KPs?

Poll

Would you trade RLEC and Webster for Michael Redd?

Yes

38 votes

No

70 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

Summation of several Thorpe comments r/t Blazers plus POLL

shwa — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:33:15 -0000

Having browsed David Thorpe's chat earlier today I couldn't help but notice that the Blazers were brought up several times. Here are the questions and answers from that chat and some thoughts on what was said:

Demar (Chicago): Who will be the better guard, Jerryd Bayless or Eric Gordon?

David Thorpe: Bayless

No rebuttal needed on this one. At this point in time, Thorpe is on point. Eric Gordon should be solid as well, but I have a lot of confidence in BayBay becoming our answer at point, more than the haters at least who have been springing up despite his solid performances. Oh no, his J is shaky or he plays too much like Brandon. Wah, wah, wah, homie can ball.

Nathan (DC): Do you think that with Oden, the 2008-9 Rookies have their first legit chance to beat the Sophomores on all-star weekend? Or are Durant, Horford, Scola, etc. still too good?

David Thorpe: Soph's in a rout.

Psh, assuming Oden, Fernandez, and Bayless participate in the Rookie-Sophomore game, how could you say they would get routed? Throw in Beasley, Rose, Mayo, Westbrook, and Love. I'd say it will at least be competitive. My guess is that Oden will be too good next year and will decide to pass playing in this game. I don't see Rudy being too stoked about trying to show-off with a bunch of rooks either.

John (Dallas, TX): Your thoughts on how terrible Nicholas Batum has been thus far?

David Thorpe: I think he's been terrible

Can't argue with statistics, or people's eyes for that matter. It has been plainly seen that Batum has underperformed, especially when he was perhaps touted as the most NBA-ready of all our draft picks Now he's no higher than third on that list as Bayless and Koponen have impressed.

Willie (Portland, OR): Do you think Portland will sign Koponen, or send him back to Europe? I think this kid can make an impact this season, he looks really good.

David Thorpe: I don't know, but I like him.

Juan (Dallas, TX): Have Bayless & Peterri Koponen showed enough that the Blazers need to be looking for a taker for Steve Blake?

David Thorpe: Not if they want to win this year.

I think Portland should sign and keep Koponen. The fact that he's playing well now adds to the likelihood that he's offered a lucrative long-term contract somewhere in Europe. If not now, maybe never on this kid, and I think we like him enough a snatch him up right now even though he's not absolutely needed.

It's interesting to me that Thorpe see's Blake as being a necessary component to our team should it "win." I don't know if Thorpe's use of "win" means "win it all" as in championship, or just "win games" in general. I disagree on both counts in any case. I love Blake and he would make for an excellent back-up, but I don't think his presence or lack thereof would significantly alter next season's win-loss totals, or our ability to compete for a championship for that matter. Rondo, Cassell and House just won a championship. When Oden, Roy, Aldridge, and even guys like Fernandez, Frye, Outlaw, and Webster are hitting their stride, I could be playing point. Mateen Cleaves could be playing point. It won't matter, Bayless will be the guy in the future and it would be nice to have Blake around as a back-up, but how important is a back-up PG in terms of wins?

Also, Thorpe contradicts himself by saying that he heard a rumor PetKo will get signed even though above he stated that he didn't know if Portland would sign him:

wil (yuba city, ca): Is Petteri Koponen ready for the NBA? I like what I see from him so far in summer league

David Thorpe: Me too. I heard he's coming to Portland this season.

Dan (Portland): Dave, instead of using a traditional PG, do you think Portland will just go with Roy and Bayless and let them drive and score from the wing?

David Thorpe: No, I think Roy will be playing the 2. Finding a top notch pg seems a good priority if they want to compete at a high level.

So now Thorpe suggests (as many others have in the past) that we still need a top notch PG to "compete at a high level." PSH! Please, like I said before, Mateen Cleaves would win rings with us.

Harry Manback (Portland, OR): If things get dicey with Chicago and Deng, does it make sense for Portland to pursue him in a sign-and-trade, or do they need more of a distance shooter at the 3?

David Thorpe: I can't think of a better fit for both parties.

So I guess Thorpe's answer would be "No, we don't need a distance shooter at the 3" if he thinks Deng would be perfect for us. I agree we don't need to be shooting a lot of 3s in the first place, but trading for Deng would likely have us including Webster in the deal, since it's hard to imagine Deng, Webster, and Outlaw coexisting with limited minutes. Martell will be money for us next season, his life will be easy and he can shoot open 3s whenever he wants. He will also be able to slash to the bucket more since he will be other team's last priority on our starting unit. And you know what else? Webster IMO is already better than Deng. Luol fell off a little last year and wasn't nearly as impressive as the year before. Martell on the other hand got better and showed us that he still has plenty of untapped potential. I didn't even mention the fact that we have no dukies on the roster and there's no reason to start now.

Jordan (Slinger, WI): Are Marc Gasol and Rudy Fernandez for real? Seriously better than Rose and Mayo?

David Thorpe: Yes,

better than Rose and Mayo? Come on Dave.

David Thorpe: Not better in terms of talent, per se. Better chance to put up better numbers? Yes. This season.

Not many would say they'd rather have Rudy and Marc Gasol over Rose and Mayo. But at least it shows that most respect the work Rudy has already done to make it this far. He's definitely a special player worth cultivating and hopefully we can find a niche for him on this team for a long time.

Lenny K: Pure talent please your Top 5 rookies?

David Thorpe: Beasley
Rose
Randolph
Bayless
Greene

Again, either Thorpe doesn't think of Oden as a true rookie or he is simply a hater. Bayless has more pure talent than Oden or Fernandez...uh...we'll wait to see about that one. I'm pretty sure he just forgot about Oden somehow, because Greene and Randolph definitely don't have more "pure talent" that Greg, whatever that means.

g (nyc): is it possible Oden can be as bad as Kwame Brown? i mean, is it even possible?

David Thorpe: No.

Good answer, however Thorpe then goes on to say that he thinks Craig Smith is the strongest player in the league (I would currently argue Dwight Howard) and that JJ Hickson will be the strongest rookie this year. Huh? Uh, what about Greg Oden?! A guy in Houston actually calls him out on it but he stands pat by his first ridiculous answer:

Tye (Houston TX): You don't think Greg Oden is the dtrongest guy in the league? He has to be the strongest rookie

David Thorpe: No, and no

He gets called out a 2nd time and this is his response:

Sidney Lowe (NC State BBall Coach): JJ Hickson stronger then Greg Oden? Laughable!

David Thorpe: My dad can beat up yours!

All-in-all, interesting stuff. The Blazers were mentioned more than any other team by far which shows the buzz is not restrained to blogs like this one. The word is out on Ptown, even if it does lead to people being slightly more misinformed like some of Thorpe's comments suggest he is.

Poll

I s Deng a better long-term fit at the 3 for us than Webster?

Ofcourse

36 votes

Most likely

36 votes

Either way we're good

25 votes

I like Deng now but Webster in the long run

33 votes

No WAY! Keep Martell over Deng 24/7/365

39 votes

169 votes | Poll has closed