SB Nation User Blog: siddfynch

Gladwell article on concussion research

siddfynch — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 02:35:12 -0000

Gladwell article on concussion research

All,

Here's an engaging and interesting article on concussion research that's worth knowing about next time you're offered a contract as Yadi's replacement. Also, guaranteed to make you NOT love Michael Vick.

Article is from The New Yorker, by Malcom Gladwell - same guy who wrote "Outliers", which I've seen referenced here a few times.

Update on Community Synthesis

siddfynch — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 16:09:53 -0000

Hey all,

I've got the numbers run. But like I said in my post a few days ago, I need formatting input from someone. I want to post several graphs form XL to this site, but am having trouble finding a way - I'm used to producing graphics in Word and PDF, not on the Web.

Anyway, what I need is step by step instructions on how to get a graph from XL to some kind of format (JPG?) that can be uploaded to this site. I have converted one from XL to PDF to JPG, but the resolution became so poor that the text was unreadable.

Further complicating it is that I have designed one graph to have a long Y-Axis, long enough that it would not all fit onto one Word or PDF page (but would seem to be fine on the Web, where we can scroll down indefinitely to continue a graph).

Can I get some advice from those of you who run web sites? John, Erik, Doug, etc.? You can email me, too, if you'd prefer.

SiddfynchATgmailDOTcom.

BTW, the Top 5 are:

1) Wieters and Price (basically a tie)

2) Heyward and Snider (again, basically a tie)

3) Maybin

4) Bumgarner and Rasmus (basically a tie)

5) LaPorta

Prospect 100 is David Huff, but another 129 guys were listed and come in below him.

Cahill (# 10) was the highest-rated guy to be left off of one ballot.

Villalona (#38) was the lowest-rated guy to make it on all the ballots.

Of guys who appeared on only one ballot, Ryan Kalish (#36 on that one, #145 overall) was the one listed the highest.

Strangely, there were no Rangers players listed anywhere in the top 50.

Cardinals a top-10 farm systemAcc

siddfynch — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 14:22:36 -0000

According to BA:

http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/bird-land/bird-land/2008/12/baseball-america-st-louis-cardinals-minor-league-talent-cracks-top-10/

Of course, I;ve been bitching for awahile that AAA semi-stars that project as MLB regulars should be given more weight than they are getting in out internal rankings here, and this helps my feelings - guys like Chris Perez, Jason Motte, David Freese, and Allen Craig are surely in the Cards top 10, and probably help tip the Cards system into the Top 10. Interesting, though, that BA is traditionally the organization that tends to upgrade raw talent, whereas the guys I am talking about are the steady reliable types.

Off the top of my head, teams I see ahead of teh Cards would be:

ATL

OAK

TEX

SFO

BAL?

BOS?

The link refers to STL being #8.

Last call for community top-100 lists

siddfynch — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 14:13:03 -0000

Hey all,

I'm on vacation with Dick Cheney at our secret undisclosed location and am just logging in after a fews day without the internet. I'd like to run the Synthesis of the Community top-100 list during this vacation, but also would really like to get more lists from people - for example, I see guys posting their 100 on here, but not sending an email along. Please, if you have a 100 list, go ahead and email it to me at siddfynchATgmailDOTcom. All you need to do is list the last name, then first name, and spell everything correctly - I can take care of the rest.

here's the original link, but in reality you don't need it - just email me your top 100 list, and please spell the names right. I'm especially interested in those from a few of you regulars (doug, galt, dfarth, daveh, etc.) that always are willing to share their thoughts. And John, I promise not to give yours away if you submit it also ;)

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/20/666430/community-ranking-synthesi

Reminder - Community Top 100 synthesis list

siddfynch — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 05:06:43 -0000

Hey all,

It has slid off the front page, so I thought I would give a quick reminder on the synthesis of people's individual Top-100. The link with full overview and directions is at Top 100 synthesis.

It's kind of cool so far - contributions from many people who don't post a lot, but are long--time readers here, and some pretty variant opinions. Be sure to get yours in the queue!

siddfynchATgmailDOTcom

Community ranking synthesis - call for Top 100 lists

siddfynch — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 19:49:31 -0000

Hello everyone,

I have volunteered to collect people's Top 100 and report back to you with the results. This will be a useful list on its own, as well as interesting to compare to our Community Top 100 and other lists.

The most onerous part of this process is not going to be computing the actual numbers, but rather organizing the files that everyone submits. My experience doing this for other sites is that this is by far the biggest headache. Therefore, I am asking you to submit with some fairly strict (but simple) requirements. If you do this, your list makes it into the mix. If you don't, I may be able to fix it, or I may just chuck it. I'm not going to assess any kind of "User name requirement" such as seniority on this board or anything - rather, the organization of your list will be the chief criteria I use in accepting the submissions. (I will, however, reserve the right to throw away a list that is obviously from a sabateur.) Can we all live with that?

If you submit your list in Microsoft Excel (preferred), I need you to save it for pre-2007 version (e.g., XLS 2003). I also need it to be a simple list of three columns - one for the rank, one for the last name, and one for the first name. Please do not list position, team name, or anything else. This should look like the following:

1 Bruce Jay

2 Longoria Evan

3 Rasmus Colby

If you don't have Excel, you can send it as a text tile, saved as RTF format. If you do this, please list as: Numerical rank, followed by a space, followed by last name, followed by a comma, followed by a space, followed by the first name. This will create a list that looks like this:

1 Bruce, Jay

2 Longoria, Evan

3 Rasmus, Colby

(Please do not submit a list that looks like this:

1. Bruce, Jay

or this

1 Jay Bruce

or this

1 Bruce, Jay)

Some other requirements:

If you submit in XLS, BE SURE to save it as XL 2003. Each layer should be on a separate row, and all rows should be consecutive (e.g., 50 rows for 50 players). If you don't have Excel, try it as a list in rich text format (rtf).
Send the file to me at: Siddfynch AT gmail.com (note that this is NOT the email address found in my settings on this site).
In the file name, be sure to include the username you use on this site (e.g., "top50list from Siddfynch")
You MUST spell the names of all the players completely and correctly. Do not send me "Moose" as an entry, or 'Mike Moostakas". I'm willing to spend a little time fixing typos and spelling errors, but not a whole lot. If your entry is chock full of errors, it makes it tough. Be extra careful with the use of "s" and "z" in Latin American names. Note that I do this myself with BA and BP and John's list each year, and they NEVER have typos in the names - it's not hard to avoid, with a little effort.

Time span

I've got a great window of time from Dec 16 to work on this. Our own Commuity list will be done by then, and many other sites will be well into their reporting season, which means plenty of resources out there for informing our rankings. Thus, I am proposing the following:

Call for submissions: Now
Deadline for submissions: Dec16
My report back to you: January 3 (faster, if the files are clean)

List size and player eligibility

After reading the initial comments, let's make it a Top 100. You can submit more if you choose.

Let's make eligibility based simply on:

1) a max of 50IP or 130 ABs in the majors (e.g., don't worry about service time)

2) a player has to have been either drafted or already in a major league program (e.g., no Stephen Strasbourgs)

Note:

I won't be checking that email account very often in the next week or so, so it's generally better to post questions/comments/complaints in this thread than by email to me directly. Thanks.

Happy ranking,

Sidd

DePodesta begins blog - (GMs everywhere cringe)

siddfynch — Mon, 12 May 2008 06:13:56 -0000

Yup, it's at:

http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/

And, from reading the first two threads (excuse me, um "fanposts"), it looks like it could be pretty nifty. He comes across as pretty genuinely interested in interacting with the readers, and already has a couple answers to posts up there. He's crazy if he thinks he can keep up with the stream of questions he'll get, but even if he can settle into some sort of selective cherry-picking every so often, it's a cool move forward in this information age.

Future Redbirds has recently had some great interviews with Jeff Luhnow, the Cards' director of player development. Between real-time interviews like that and blogs started by the SD front office, is it safe to assume we are starting a new age of front office interaction, where we can at least some prospect news directly from the source? 5 years ago , the Chris Perez callup "story" would have been broken only by the press; now it is broken by bloggers; in 5 years, will it be released directly by the Cards GM?

Matt LaPorta defensive news

siddfynch — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 19:26:47 -0000

Just came across this while skimming the Milwaukee newspaper, www.Milwaukeenewsandsuasagepress.com/Melvin. Given all the recent discussions about the seven-headed monster known as Heyward-Moustakas-LaPorta-Burgess-Schafer-Vitters-LaPorta -Snider in here, I thought it might be useful to some ongoing discussions (that will hopefully end by 2010).

*Melvin settles on defensive alignment for opening day*
By Marty McFly
Milwaukee News and Free Sausage Press
February 24, 2008

Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin announced today that he's settled on a defensive alignment designed to take advantage of the lineup's hitting potential, while minimizing the defensive liabilities from a team stocked with second-tier defensive players. In an interesting twist, Melvin credits internet message boards for helping solve his defensive puzzle, a tribute to the growing legions of knowledgeable fans on blog sites around the world.

"We've been experimenting with different lineups as kind of back-of-the-envelope things since last September", said Melvin. "I think pretty much everyone knows our defensive shortcomings last year. None of our pitchers were confident letting the ball get put on the ground or to the left side of the outfield. Our original hope was that our pitchers could learn to coax the ball towards wherever Corey Hart was playing, but some guys - especially Chris Capuano - really couldn't get the hang of it."

As a result, the team selected Matt LaPorta with its first pick in last year's draft, hoping his versatility could help solve the Brewers' defensive condundrum. "Matt's glove work has really been underrated by some of the professional pundits", said Melvin "and although it's true he has limited range, he's also a terrific athlete, with soft hands and the agility of a ballerina. (Assistant GM) Gord Ash and I were surfing the net the other day and came across some excellent points by Mr. Big Fly on John Sickels' site, noting that LaPorta hadn't made an error all last year, and that we could put him anywhere on the field. And so we thought, well why not?"

As a result, says Melvin, the team will open with an alignment that moves Ryan Braun from 3B to LF, Billy Hall from CF to SS, Rickie Weeks from 2B to CF, JJ Hardy from SS to 3B, and installs LaPorta as the starting 2B. Also, Corey Hart will be moved from RF to 1B, where his 6' 6" frame will help to flag down the errant missiles coming from Hall at SS. 1B Prince Fielder, an underrated athlete himself, will move to RF.

"This really takes advantage of all the strengths of our guys, while minimizing their defensive shortcomings", said Melvin. "Braun was a butcher at the hot corner last year - we need to get him as far away from the ball as we can, to give him as much time to read it as possible - putting him somewhere out there on the warning track will do that."

At the same time, Melvin continued, "Hall was pretty much lost in CF, looked like Shawon Dunston out there. Hardy's got a great arm, but the range of an elm tree, and Rickie Weeks has all the speed in the world but can't pivot to save his life. It's only a matter of time before someone angry like Milton Bradley breaks him off at the knees."

Enter LaPorta, who many people don't realize was a competitive figure skater as a teenager before turning to baseball full time in college. "If you look at the old film, he had the full repertoire of moves", said Melvin, "The triple-lux, the camel, you name it. Christina Kahrl called it "Boitano-esque." So we thought - why not stick a glove on his left hand, plop him down next to the 2-bag, and let him put those old moves to good use? Now we have a domino effect that improves our whole team. Thank God for the insights on those internet message boards."

To help with the changes, former major league all-stars Rusty Staub and Jack Clark have been brought in as defensive consultants.

Note: George Plimpton contributed research to this article.

Poll

Where does the move to 2B place LaPorta among 2007 draftee rank

First

7 votes

First

0 votes

First

1 votes

First

2 votes

First

1 votes

First

4 votes

First

10 votes

First

3 votes

First

7 votes

Jason Heyward is still better

46 votes

81 votes | Poll has closed

Community member sighting - BK letter to Goldstein posted at BP

siddfynch — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 19:41:52 -0000

Great read on both Morales and Stewart, as well as on some prospecting philosophies in general.

Not sure how much is subscriber content, so I'll just post the link.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7076

Not sure how much is subscriber content, so I'll just post the link.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7076 One thing I'll say is that BP does a nice job answering emails. I've gotten a couple back myself. Props to BK for getting his posted, though!

Nate Silver on Clayton Kershaw - chat excerpt

siddfynch — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 15:19:56 -0000

I don't think this is subscriber info, so I'll post the whole thing instead of abridging. Originally tacked it into Prospect #37 diary, but then felt it had enough tranferrable value to hopefully spark some larger discussion, especially in regards to other prospects:

From the Dec 19 chat at BP:

David (Sonoma State University): Is Clayton Kershaw REALLY that good? Why aren't the Dodgers more willing to trade him considering that they have Scott Elbert?

Nate Silver: Clay did a bunch of work on the pitcher DTs this winter -- I mean, some really thorough, painstaking work -- and one thing he found is that the difficulty curve for minor league pitchers is much steeper that we'd previously believed. So to the extent that Kershaw is a top prospect, it's at this stage more a scouting thing than a numbers thing -- his high walk rates are almost as much of a minus as his high strikeout rates are a plus. He's still an excellent prospect, but he's leaps and bounds behind the Clay Buchholz class of pitchers.

I found this interesting for four reasons:

1) Back when we were debating Kershaw, there were a few in here that vehemently claimed his walks prevented them from placing him too high. FWIW, Silver/PECOTA agree, though I was really surprised to see him say that the walks almost COMPLETELY negated the high K rates, when predicting success; I'm pretty sure Artie was one of the guys leading that critique of Kershaw....

2)In his answer, Silver states flatly that Kershaw's distance from the majors (and walk rate) place him far behind Buchholz (for example) as a prospect. This doesn't surprise me in terms of risk/reward. but it DOES surprise me in terms of upside. Basically, that walk rate is a real problem, and until Kershaw fixes it, it affects not only his chances of reaches his "ceiling", but also the height of that ceiling in the first place.

3) This is not just applicable to Kershaw - this is a transferrable issue, as we have other prospects coming up in the community poll that this very much applies to - Adenhart jumps immediately to mind.

4) While I am mentioning Artie, one of the things I've noticed him saying a lot this "season" is that he's giving some older pitching prospects a bit of EXTRA credit, just due to the fact that they're closer and are maybe a little more projectable as _survivors_of the injury nexus. I'm wondering if this age things also plays into PECOTA/Davenport's predictions, in the sense that perhaps there's not much credit given for accomplishment at a young ARL IF the pitcher is really young.

It's interesting that this view on Kershaw comes from a stathead stance, given that the stathead element of the public tends to really like Kershaw.

Do you guys buy it? Is Kershaw's ceiling really much lower Buchholz's - even after ignoring risk? Do his walks really hurt him that much?

And, who else coming up might this apply to? Adenhart, Lofgren, Elbert, ?????