Well, it’s that time of year, where every basement-dwelling internet geek gets to throw his or her 2 cents in on the state of the baseball team.

The Reds in 2009 finished about where I assumed they would, within spitting distance of .500.  In a roundabout way, they got there about the way I thought – better than average pitching, worse than average hitting.  The particulars didn’t match up (Bruce, EdE, and Harang disappointed; Votto and the bullpen exceeded expectations), but they never do.

I wrote a short piece during the All-Star break, giving my assessment of the team at that point; unfortunately, not much changed in the 2nd half:

• Shockingly, Willy Taveras was actually worse in the 2nd half than the 1st, and by a whopping 100 points of OPS.  No major leaguer with more than 275 PA had as low of an OPS as our Willy, and he had 437 PA.  What do they say about insanity being when you do the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result?
• After the trades of AGon and Hairston, Paul Janish became the everyday SS.  Is it a good sign when 39% of your hits are doubles, or a bad sign that 39% of your hits are doubles and you still slug .305?  His defense, though, was still stupid good (sort by UZR/150).
• Gomes cooled down a bit, but still hit well enough to start; Nyx, not so much.  However, McDonald continued to get playing time for no good reason.
• Hernandez go hurt, Hanigan played hurt.  One of those things was better for the team than the other.
• Dusty Baker was still Dusty Baker.  And still employed by the Reds.
• Bruce went on the DL the day before the ASG; he missed 57 games, then hit the cover off the ball the last 3 weeks.  EdE was traded to Baltimore Toronto and hit a little better, but still not as well as anyone expected; combined with still-atrocious defense, he was below replacement-level in ’09.
• Harang made only 7 more starts, pitching about as well as he did in the 1st half; he then went on the DL for the rest of the year.  Putridroyo turned into Awsomeroyo.  Volquez will likely miss all of 2010, also.
• I would bear Joey Votto’s children.  There, I said it.
• The relievers continued to do their part.
• Homer struggled at times, but finished very strong.
• Dickerson didn’t get to play much in the 2nd half, but guess what his OBP was?  Hint:  the same as the 1st half.

Where does that leave the team?  Hard to tell.  I think the following things need to be done:

• The team needs Dusty-proofed, which means DFAing Taveras.  The guy is absolutely worthless as a MLB player, and will get too much playing time as long as Baker is the manager.
• For whatever reason, Baker doesn’t seem to believe in Hanigan; no matter if it’s Hernandez, Miller, or someone else, I’m afraid the wrong catcher will get the majority of playing time.
• A big RH bat is needed, if only because Baker doesn’t think two lefties can hit in a row.  Where that bat is going to come from is a good question, if the payroll is in fact going to drop as Fay suggests.
• The team is going to be living on the edge starter-wise, I’m afraid.  They have to hope two of Harang/Cueto/Bailey pitch like top of the rotation guys to contend, because we all know Arroyo is not the pitcher he pretended to be in the 2nd half.
• I’m not convinced the bullpen will be as good next year; it seems everyone except Burton pitched over his head.  Also, I’m guessing if a big contract gets traded it’ll be Cordero – while he isn’t as good as he pitched this year, he’s still the best reliever on the team.

Early prediction?  No major moves, Taveras shipped out, two of El Nino/Frasier/Heisey make the team, and…another season close to .500 ball.

Well, it’s the "half-way" point (although anyone with simple math skills knows that was really a week ago), and it’s been somewhat frustrating.  Going into the season I figured we’d be about a .500 team, so in that context I’m not really surprised.  The way we’ve gotten here, though, is:

1.  Willy Taveras.  No one in the majors with more than 145 AB at lead-off has a lower OPS than Willy’s .589, yet he has 252 AB there.  Only Jimmy Rollins’s .275 OBP is lower than Willy’s .288 among such hitters. 

2.  Jerry Hairston, Jr/Alex Gonzalez/Paul Janish:  Hairston’s been a slightly better hitter among the three, but Janish (according to UZR) has been a much better defender than either (and he’s been a better hitter than Gonzalez); enough better, in fact, that fangraphs thinks he’s been worth $1.1M while the other two have negative value.  Guess who’s not getting any playing time, and will get sent down once AGon gets back?

3.  Jonny Gomes/Laynce Nix:  Why is this not the normal LF platoon?

4.  Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan:  One has an OPS of .693, has thrown out 34% of baserunners (career 30%) and was termed the "first half MVP"; the other has an OPS of .836, throwing out 44% of runners (39% career) and has been watching a bunch of games.

None of those things are the fault of the players, though; that goes on the back of ….

5.  Dusty Baker:  Batting lineups that put Taveras and/or Hairston at the top (the Reds are 30th  in OPS and 29th OBP in all of baseball from lead-off and 27th/28th from the 2 hole); hitting BP 4th; hitting Hernandez 4th (the Reds are 10th in the NL from the clean-up spot): Jay Bruce having zero protection in the lineup; Janish and Hannigan with their pictures on milk cartons; not rescuing hitters before they get tossed by the umpire….the list goes on and on.  I have completely and utterly lost all respect of Baker as a manager.

Other frustrations:

6.  The struggles of Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion:  Bruce is still young, but he obviously needs help.  EdE played with a broken wrist that everyone evidently missed; have you noticed his OPS is 360 points higher after his DL stint than before?  That being said, he has to start playing much better defense.

7.  The rotation:  Harang and Arroyo have struggled, which really throws things off.  Volquez’s injury certainly doesn’t help

On the other hand, there have been some surprises:

1.  Joey Votto:  I heart Joey.  While he doesn’t have the HR power you want from a 1B, he’s still 3rd in baseball among 1B in OPS (and 4th overall).

2.  The bullpen:  3rd in the NL in ERA. 

3.  Homer Bailey:  He has a 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP since his return to the rotation.  Just maybe…

4.  The afore mentioned Hanigan:  What else does he need to do to see PAs?

5.  Chris Dickerson:  While his SLG doesn’t approach last year’s, who’d have thought he could get on base at a .370 clip?

All in all, I’m really tired of this team right now.  Again, generally it’s not the players’ fault; Dusty has clearly better alternatives than Taveras and Hernandez, yet refuses to play them. 

Then, to compound the problem, he puts those players in places in the batting order where they can really kill the offense.  Meanwhile, until and unless the top of the rotation performs better, it won't really matter.

In other words, the frustration is likely to continue.

I'm scared.  Really, really scared.  There is yet more HAVOC available, and probably cheaply.  But there's a limit, isn't there?  There's already so much HAVOC on this team it's literally bursting at the seams.  The last thing we need is 4 "lead-off" hitters on the team (especially the kind that never, ever get on base).

Please, Dusty, stop.  We don't need to add to the HAVOC you've already created.  Just keep playing for the walk-off salami; it seems to be working OK.

Your pal,

Sid.

Via MLBTR:

MLB.com's Ken Gurnick reports that in addition to Dunn, the Dodgers will soon open up talks with Bobby Abreu.  They'd like to move Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre if they sign an outfielder.

Why does this scare me?  Oh, yea.  It's because we've already signed Pierre's less-talented brother for 2 years and apparently have another OF spot to fill with a slap-hitting speedster.  Plus, we have all of that money we didn't spend on Dye left over.

Bailey and Dorn for Pierre.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

Conventional baseball wisdom is that you never ever trade within the division.  Luckily, I love the unconventional but smart move when it comes to baseball.

What about Mike Cameron?  The Yankees have been after him hot and heavy, but shockingly are demanding that the Brewers eat some of his salary (or take all of Kei Igawa's salary).

Want a big RH bat?  Cameron makes lefties cry; in the past 4 years his OPS against LHP has been under .900 once.  Want to improve the defense?  While he's no longer one of the best CF in the game he's still awfully good - JinAz thinks his defense is about as valuable as Dickerson's; UZR had him as the 2nd best CF (the Chone projections are down for some reason).  Want a decent value?  He's only under contract for '10 at $10M.

Throw Bailey or Arroyo at them (they desperately need pitching; Bailey would offer significant salary savings, but Arroyo might enter the season as their #1 starter).  Even if it would take another middling prospect, it would make infinitely more sense than trading for Dye.

Khalil Greene?

OK, he's younger than AGon.  Plus, thoughout his career, he's been a better hitter.  Finally, he should be a defensive upgrade.

But:

1.  His OPS+ last year (63) was about the same as Bako's (62) and worse than Keppinger's (70); I thought the idea was to improve the offense.
2.  That was before the dumbass broke his hand being a dumbass.
3.  He's going to make alot more than AGon next year (both have 1 year remaining on their contracts).  Hell, he's going to make more than AGon and Kepp combined, even including AGon's buyout at the end of the year.

Unless the Pads were taking AGon back (why would they?), the Reds would end up with $12M+ worth of SS giving them only slightly better production than the $5.5M SS is likely to give them anyway, plus they'd obviously have to give something up in talent to make the trade.

I need some convincing that this is a good idea.

I've got yer analysis right here, buddy.

Evidently, Jockety thinks the team's #1 need is a RH bat (of course, that's from Fay's blog; hell, it could have been Jobba the Hutt that Fay talked to for all we know).  The boy(s) over at MLBTR throw out the following names:

Adrian Beltre:  Will be 30 years old.  Will make $12M next year, then a FA.  While he's a plus defender (+22.3 RAR by JinAZ through Sept. 5, best among 3B), he hits about as well as EdE.  Of course, EdE is 4 years younger and about $9M cheaper next year.

Manny Ramirez:  Will be 37.  His age-36 season was one for the books, 8th best by OPS+ behind famous juicers Bonds, Ruth, Williams, McGwire, Anson, Dickey, Musial, and tied with McCovey.  He's going to command multiple years at $20M+ per.  JinAZ has his defense at -10.9 in the AL, -2.2 with the Dodgers (and that's compared to the general drivel that gets run out to LF every day).

Pat Burrell:  Will be 32.  A nice hitter, but not what I'd term a real impact bat.  His defense is about average (1.8), which frankly surprises me. 

Magglio Ordonez:  Will be 35.  With 461 PA next year, his contract becomes guaranteed through '11 for $51M.  Almost as bad as Manny defensively (-9.1).

Matt Holliday:  Will be 29.  Will be a free agent after '09.  You know my position - if they think they can sign him long-term, acquire him if at all possible.  A good defender (9.2).

In short, I (obviously) don't like most of the list - a guy who doesn't address the stated purpose, even though he's older and much more expensive than the guy who's already there; an old, very expensive FA who would be a severe defensive liability; a not quite as (1) old, (b) expensive, or (c) good FA; a hideously expensive older player who would be a defensive liability; and Matt Holliday.

I agree that a big RH bat would do wonders for this team; I just hope whatever Jockety does it doesn't either gut the minors for mediocrity or cost a bazillion dollars for past glory.

Unfortunately, his shoulder is hurt, requiring surgery.  He's out for the season.

I don't know if I like this.  I've been firmly behind Slyde's drive to sign Ellis, as you know.  But I'd think a shoulder injury could be problematic.

The good news is he's no longer a 4/$28M player; he could probably be had for 1 or 2 years at $4-5M each now, saving money for the inevitable Holliday trade/extension.

Thoughts?

I’ll start another post that would make an excellent off-day thread.

See this?  Justifications for yesterday’s lineup:

• Rosales, who “hasn’t played much shortstop”, wasn’t started; he played SS exclusively in the minors until TJS.   107-year-old Cabrera, who’s played everywhere but C in his pro career (and except for 1b, he’s played every position more than SS), got the start instead.  FTH?
• Despite the “youth movement”, Patterson was given the chance to further his quest as “worst Red ever” for defensive reasons.  Given the choices, this probably wasn’t a bad idea.
• Bako, on the other hand, was behind the plate because "(y)ou want to put the best team out there defensively and offensively".  Uh, Dusty, the dude’s terrible.  Always has been.  And he’s older than Cabrera.  Meanwhile, Hanigan is neither.  So I ask again:  FTH?

[Note by Rick House, 08/18/08 3:58 PM EDT ]: This should make for an excellent off-day open thread. -Rick

From MLBTR.

First, Jockety has free reins to spend as much of Castellini's money as he wants.  However, this quote bothers me: 

"Dunn was going to be a free agent and Griffey had an option we weren't going to exercise, so we just felt it was time to turn the page and get some players back to help give us more depth," Jocketty said. "They were both guys who had great careers here. But it wasn't working, so we're trying something different."

Now, I don't know anyone that disagrees that Jr. needed to go.  I also don't know anyone who'd say "it was working" in Cinci.  However, Dunn was the best hitter in the lineup (by OPS) he was a regular (based on at least 502 PA, or "a regular player" by baseball stat rules (3.1 PA/team game)) every year except '05, when Jr's OPS was 18 points higher (3 points of OPS+).  If you're struggling, why get rid of your best hitter?  Why cite "free agency" if " majority owner Bob Castellini has made it clear that Jocketty will have free rein to shape the team as he sees fit"?  I can understand blowhard radio announcers blaming the best player for a team's failure, but the GM should know better.  At least I'd hope so.

Second link is human interest only.  Chris Gruler doesn't blame the magic stick.