I've got a good one to start.  There's little to think it's possible, but that's what makes rumors fun!

Evidently, everyone's favorite future Reds shortstop is unhappy his current team is trying to sign another SS.   What to do?  The Marlins can't afford to have a disgruntled, highly-paid player destroying their clubhouse chemistry (especially since they have no veteran presences to staunch said disgruntledness).  So....

I heard from a reliable source* that the Reds have traded Yonder Alonzo (LF, Mike Stanton moves to CF, Chris Coghlan moves to AAA (where he belongs)), Yasmani Grandal, Homer Bailey, and Todd Frazier for Hanley Ramirez.  I was told** the press conference announcing the trade will be at 3 pm.

*not really

**this is a lie also

In the comments section recently, I got into a bit of a discussion about the Reds’ needs.  Specifically, I sited an article by Ken Rosenthal stating that the Reds would target a middle-of-the-order bat, and/but might also consider a third baseman, shortstop, left fielder, or center fielder.  I objected to most of this list, saying the Reds seemed OK at 3 of those 4 positions (and this particular sub-thread was discussing the need for a starting pitcher).  Others disagreed with me, saying “a shortstop should be the priority position player, not left field.”

While I agree that LF isn’t a real problem, I don’t think SS is a problem either.

Next year, the Reds will be one of 2 teams:  A team trying to make the playoffs in ’12, or a team trying to make the playoffs for ’13 and beyond.  If they want to make the playoffs in ’12, two things are true:

1.  Offense isn’t a problem, as a team that finished the last two seasons #1 and #2 in scoring will return largely intact, with expected upgrades in offense in LF, SS, and 3B even if they don’t make a move.  Spending money to add offense doesn’t make sense.  Heck, they could probably run Janish out there and still score enough runs to win most games.  Except that….
2.  Pitching is a problem.  Only 2 pitchers will finish the season with >80 IP and ERA+> 90; further, who’s going to improve?  Leake should pitch more innings and Arroyo should be less of a disaster (fun fact:  Arroyo’s allowed as many HRs as walks), but no one on the staff screams “Big Step Forward!!!”; meanwhile, Cueto’s sure to come back to earth a bit   If they want to make a dent next year, this is the area they must address.

If they don’t want to make a run at the playoffs next year, pitching is still the problem; there isn’t anyone in the minors anywhere close to stepping in to the major league rotation.

Unless they want to spend $120M+, a team can’t have a very good player at every position even if some of them are pre-arb or pre-FA.  At that point, they have to look at where they’d be smartest to spend money and the Reds, at this juncture, need starting pitching much more than they need offense or defense.  Adding just one average starter would do wonders, and adding a #2 type would likely put them in the playoffs even if they don’t do anything else.

Cozart could easily turn into a good everyday SS; scouts seem to think his defense will be good enough to at least keep him in the majors, and his hitting this year (between AAA and the majors) could be a sign of much more.  At the very least, the Reds' season next year won't turn whether he's the starting SS.

I have Wilmer Font in a keeper league.  At the beginning of the year, there was talk about his past injury history, but that was it, so I kept him.

Now...nothing.  No stats for the year.  No news about him anywhere.  If you google him, if there's any news at all, it's from last year or earlier.

Did he just slip between the cusions and no one's looked for him?  Is he behind the dresser with that one brown sock?  What happened?

After reading the excellent post by riverfront, I glanced to the right sidebar and noticed this headline from Fanhouse: "Aroldis Chapman Has Future in Reds' Rotation, but Bullpen Awaits in 2011"  So I clicked the link and sure enough, there was Bryan Price talking about the plan for our favorite Commie.

A good point is made in the article, but I think it needs expanded on:  Randy Johnson was just an OK pitcher until he quit walking people; it wasn't until '93 (as a 29 year old) that he became RANDY JOHNSON, and if you look only one thing changed:  he went from walking 5.7 per 9 IP in his career to that point to never again walking more than 3.8 and averaging 2.7 for the rest of his career.

Price also doesn't hide that Chapman fills what they see as a "need" in the short-term, but if he can learn to control his pitches better by working in the bullpen for a year, he'll turn into the dominant force we all assume he will be that much sooner.  And the Reds, it seems, are still committed to making him a starter.

Slyde thinks he’s sooooo cool, because he was at a private party to kick off the Winter Caravan.  Well, I’m at least as cool because tonight I was at an invitation-only party as part of the Northern Leg in Findlay.  The local radio station that carries the games had a very nice dinner (roast beast, chicken, veggies – the works), followed by a question and answer period and finally autographs; because we advertise on the station, I was invited.

No Cowboy – they left him "at the loading dock" according to Welsh, because of his strep throat.

Welsh:  Sean Casey is going to do about 15 TV games; George Grande is going to fill in for tHom during football season; the only way Joe Morgan does any games is as a "guest in the booth".

Dusty:

• When asked about Chapman’s role, he was direct – "8th inning"; I don’t  think that surprises anyone.  He did mention that Chapman’s been on a workout regimen because "in Cuba, they don’t use one". 
• Alonzo’s role on the team – "It’s up to him.  If you hit well enough, a team will find a spot for you".
• Similarly, when asked about Frazier, he said "It’s on Todd to take a job.  He isn’t going to be handed one, he has to take it." 
• Again similarly, said he likes to keep one spot open going into spring training for that one guy who surprises everyone (though he also said that one spot usually goes to a pitcher).
• He’s excited about going to Goodyear.  Evidently, the training facilities in Sarasota were pretty shoddy – he said guys had to wait around to use the weight machines because there weren’t enough and wasn’t room to add more.
• Hopes to have Morgan at spring training, because someone like him can turn a young player’s career around with one piece of advice that sticks.  Told the shocking story that when he started managing the Giants, one of the young players asked if Willie Mays was "really that good."
• On Renteria, he said the things we want to hear.  He talked about Renteria being 36, "not the shortstop he was", "injured a lot lately"; of course, he talked about what a "clutch hitter" and "winner" he is, too.  He also reiterated that Janish is the starter.  He sounded like he regretted not giving Aurilia the starter’s job earlier in SF; "We kept bringing in these veterans instead of giving him the job".

Homer:  Something you don’t think about – he said it’s tough for a starting pitcher to get back in game shape after an injury because you’re used to pitching every 5th day so it takes forever, unlike a position player or reliever who’s used to playing every single day.  Also said he’d prefer a 4 man  rotation, because it’s tough to stay on top of your game when you only pitch once most  weeks.

Frazier:  Was given the rookie treatment – had to introduce himself with a little history, and (since he’s from Jersey) sing a little Sinatra.  I asked him about his position, and he said he preferred to play 3rd but is willing to play anywhere he has a chance to make the bigs.  While the little brother was getting his autograph, I told him to take the backup IF job from Renteria and he thanked me.

It was certainly fun, Dusty didn’t say any of the things we fear hearing (other than Chapman’s role, but  that wasn’t a surprise), and Frazier at least sounded like he’s willing to do what it takes to take the next step.

I just realized something, and it really pains me to say this:  Walt Jockety has made a terrible, terrible mistake.  After an initial hesitancy I've come to warm up to Walt as a GM; he's made a number of moves that have come out of nowhere, and more often than not they've worked wonderfully.  It's rare that he's completely dropped the ball, in my estimation.

Unfortunately, I think I've discovered just such an occurance.  Just moments ago, I was perusing MLBTradeRumors and came across this little blurb.  Read that first note again:  Austin Kearns is available, which I had forgotten.

To me, Kearns would be a clear upgrade over Gomes, for no more money (probably less).  He doesn't have quite the power that Gomes does, but his .353 OBP makes up for it.  In addition, he has a solid defesive reputation while Gomes....doesn't.

I know his career hasn't gone the way we once hoped it would; I also realize he's somewhat fragile.  But honestly, can you point at someone else who'd clearly improve the team for under $2M/yr?

Yeah, they played in Cinci today.  Beating the Flubs is always a good thing, and Leake apparently looked decent doing it (though a 5/7 K/BB ratio isn't going to cut it).  The big news, though, was to be found about 200 miles straight north as the Toledo Mud Hens hosted the Louisville Bats and Aroldis Chapman.

Chapman was everything you've heard:  Fastball topped out at 101, slider was nasty, control wasn't pinpoint, doesn't look like he's throwing that hard.

Fastball - 97+ all day long.  It seemed, though, that he had much better command at the lower end of that range.  Most impressive was the strikeout on pitches of 79/81/100 mph - the hitter never had a chance on any of the three.

Slider - 88-91, usually for a strike.  Made many grown men look like little girls.

Control - good, but not great.  Only 1 walk, but 85 pitches in 4 2/3 IP.  He seemed to go deep into the count most of the time.  Of course, 9 strikeouts will up the pitch count, too.

Motion - looked very controlled.  I'm no scout, but everything looked to move smoothly and there didn't seem to be any wasted motions.  I'd guess the control will be easy to harness.

At the end of the day, though, I think the Reds were right to keep him in the minors.  To me, he doesn't look that sharp, and I'd think major leaguers would have fewer problems with him than the Mud Hens did.  Still, Reds fans have every right to be excited about the guy.

Continue reading this post »

Well, it’s that time of year, where every basement-dwelling internet geek gets to throw his or her 2 cents in on the state of the baseball team.

The Reds in 2009 finished about where I assumed they would, within spitting distance of .500.  In a roundabout way, they got there about the way I thought – better than average pitching, worse than average hitting.  The particulars didn’t match up (Bruce, EdE, and Harang disappointed; Votto and the bullpen exceeded expectations), but they never do.

I wrote a short piece during the All-Star break, giving my assessment of the team at that point; unfortunately, not much changed in the 2nd half:

• Shockingly, Willy Taveras was actually worse in the 2nd half than the 1st, and by a whopping 100 points of OPS.  No major leaguer with more than 275 PA had as low of an OPS as our Willy, and he had 437 PA.  What do they say about insanity being when you do the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result?
• After the trades of AGon and Hairston, Paul Janish became the everyday SS.  Is it a good sign when 39% of your hits are doubles, or a bad sign that 39% of your hits are doubles and you still slug .305?  His defense, though, was still stupid good (sort by UZR/150).
• Gomes cooled down a bit, but still hit well enough to start; Nyx, not so much.  However, McDonald continued to get playing time for no good reason.
• Hernandez go hurt, Hanigan played hurt.  One of those things was better for the team than the other.
• Dusty Baker was still Dusty Baker.  And still employed by the Reds.
• Bruce went on the DL the day before the ASG; he missed 57 games, then hit the cover off the ball the last 3 weeks.  EdE was traded to Baltimore Toronto and hit a little better, but still not as well as anyone expected; combined with still-atrocious defense, he was below replacement-level in ’09.
• Harang made only 7 more starts, pitching about as well as he did in the 1st half; he then went on the DL for the rest of the year.  Putridroyo turned into Awsomeroyo.  Volquez will likely miss all of 2010, also.
• I would bear Joey Votto’s children.  There, I said it.
• The relievers continued to do their part.
• Homer struggled at times, but finished very strong.
• Dickerson didn’t get to play much in the 2nd half, but guess what his OBP was?  Hint:  the same as the 1st half.

Where does that leave the team?  Hard to tell.  I think the following things need to be done:

• The team needs Dusty-proofed, which means DFAing Taveras.  The guy is absolutely worthless as a MLB player, and will get too much playing time as long as Baker is the manager.
• For whatever reason, Baker doesn’t seem to believe in Hanigan; no matter if it’s Hernandez, Miller, or someone else, I’m afraid the wrong catcher will get the majority of playing time.
• A big RH bat is needed, if only because Baker doesn’t think two lefties can hit in a row.  Where that bat is going to come from is a good question, if the payroll is in fact going to drop as Fay suggests.
• The team is going to be living on the edge starter-wise, I’m afraid.  They have to hope two of Harang/Cueto/Bailey pitch like top of the rotation guys to contend, because we all know Arroyo is not the pitcher he pretended to be in the 2nd half.
• I’m not convinced the bullpen will be as good next year; it seems everyone except Burton pitched over his head.  Also, I’m guessing if a big contract gets traded it’ll be Cordero – while he isn’t as good as he pitched this year, he’s still the best reliever on the team.

Early prediction?  No major moves, Taveras shipped out, two of El Nino/Frasier/Heisey make the team, and…another season close to .500 ball.

Well, it’s the "half-way" point (although anyone with simple math skills knows that was really a week ago), and it’s been somewhat frustrating.  Going into the season I figured we’d be about a .500 team, so in that context I’m not really surprised.  The way we’ve gotten here, though, is:

1.  Willy Taveras.  No one in the majors with more than 145 AB at lead-off has a lower OPS than Willy’s .589, yet he has 252 AB there.  Only Jimmy Rollins’s .275 OBP is lower than Willy’s .288 among such hitters. 

2.  Jerry Hairston, Jr/Alex Gonzalez/Paul Janish:  Hairston’s been a slightly better hitter among the three, but Janish (according to UZR) has been a much better defender than either (and he’s been a better hitter than Gonzalez); enough better, in fact, that fangraphs thinks he’s been worth $1.1M while the other two have negative value.  Guess who’s not getting any playing time, and will get sent down once AGon gets back?

3.  Jonny Gomes/Laynce Nix:  Why is this not the normal LF platoon?

4.  Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan:  One has an OPS of .693, has thrown out 34% of baserunners (career 30%) and was termed the "first half MVP"; the other has an OPS of .836, throwing out 44% of runners (39% career) and has been watching a bunch of games.

None of those things are the fault of the players, though; that goes on the back of ….

5.  Dusty Baker:  Batting lineups that put Taveras and/or Hairston at the top (the Reds are 30th  in OPS and 29th OBP in all of baseball from lead-off and 27th/28th from the 2 hole); hitting BP 4th; hitting Hernandez 4th (the Reds are 10th in the NL from the clean-up spot): Jay Bruce having zero protection in the lineup; Janish and Hannigan with their pictures on milk cartons; not rescuing hitters before they get tossed by the umpire….the list goes on and on.  I have completely and utterly lost all respect of Baker as a manager.

Other frustrations:

6.  The struggles of Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion:  Bruce is still young, but he obviously needs help.  EdE played with a broken wrist that everyone evidently missed; have you noticed his OPS is 360 points higher after his DL stint than before?  That being said, he has to start playing much better defense.

7.  The rotation:  Harang and Arroyo have struggled, which really throws things off.  Volquez’s injury certainly doesn’t help

On the other hand, there have been some surprises:

1.  Joey Votto:  I heart Joey.  While he doesn’t have the HR power you want from a 1B, he’s still 3rd in baseball among 1B in OPS (and 4th overall).

2.  The bullpen:  3rd in the NL in ERA. 

3.  Homer Bailey:  He has a 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP since his return to the rotation.  Just maybe…

4.  The afore mentioned Hanigan:  What else does he need to do to see PAs?

5.  Chris Dickerson:  While his SLG doesn’t approach last year’s, who’d have thought he could get on base at a .370 clip?

All in all, I’m really tired of this team right now.  Again, generally it’s not the players’ fault; Dusty has clearly better alternatives than Taveras and Hernandez, yet refuses to play them. 

Then, to compound the problem, he puts those players in places in the batting order where they can really kill the offense.  Meanwhile, until and unless the top of the rotation performs better, it won't really matter.

In other words, the frustration is likely to continue.

I'm scared.  Really, really scared.  There is yet more HAVOC available, and probably cheaply.  But there's a limit, isn't there?  There's already so much HAVOC on this team it's literally bursting at the seams.  The last thing we need is 4 "lead-off" hitters on the team (especially the kind that never, ever get on base).

Please, Dusty, stop.  We don't need to add to the HAVOC you've already created.  Just keep playing for the walk-off salami; it seems to be working OK.

Your pal,

Sid.

Via MLBTR:

MLB.com's Ken Gurnick reports that in addition to Dunn, the Dodgers will soon open up talks with Bobby Abreu.  They'd like to move Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre if they sign an outfielder.

Why does this scare me?  Oh, yea.  It's because we've already signed Pierre's less-talented brother for 2 years and apparently have another OF spot to fill with a slap-hitting speedster.  Plus, we have all of that money we didn't spend on Dye left over.

Bailey and Dorn for Pierre.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

Conventional baseball wisdom is that you never ever trade within the division.  Luckily, I love the unconventional but smart move when it comes to baseball.

What about Mike Cameron?  The Yankees have been after him hot and heavy, but shockingly are demanding that the Brewers eat some of his salary (or take all of Kei Igawa's salary).

Want a big RH bat?  Cameron makes lefties cry; in the past 4 years his OPS against LHP has been under .900 once.  Want to improve the defense?  While he's no longer one of the best CF in the game he's still awfully good - JinAz thinks his defense is about as valuable as Dickerson's; UZR had him as the 2nd best CF (the Chone projections are down for some reason).  Want a decent value?  He's only under contract for '10 at $10M.

Throw Bailey or Arroyo at them (they desperately need pitching; Bailey would offer significant salary savings, but Arroyo might enter the season as their #1 starter).  Even if it would take another middling prospect, it would make infinitely more sense than trading for Dye.

Khalil Greene?

OK, he's younger than AGon.  Plus, thoughout his career, he's been a better hitter.  Finally, he should be a defensive upgrade.

But:

1.  His OPS+ last year (63) was about the same as Bako's (62) and worse than Keppinger's (70); I thought the idea was to improve the offense.
2.  That was before the dumbass broke his hand being a dumbass.
3.  He's going to make alot more than AGon next year (both have 1 year remaining on their contracts).  Hell, he's going to make more than AGon and Kepp combined, even including AGon's buyout at the end of the year.

Unless the Pads were taking AGon back (why would they?), the Reds would end up with $12M+ worth of SS giving them only slightly better production than the $5.5M SS is likely to give them anyway, plus they'd obviously have to give something up in talent to make the trade.

I need some convincing that this is a good idea.

I've got yer analysis right here, buddy.

Evidently, Jockety thinks the team's #1 need is a RH bat (of course, that's from Fay's blog; hell, it could have been Jobba the Hutt that Fay talked to for all we know).  The boy(s) over at MLBTR throw out the following names:

Adrian Beltre:  Will be 30 years old.  Will make $12M next year, then a FA.  While he's a plus defender (+22.3 RAR by JinAZ through Sept. 5, best among 3B), he hits about as well as EdE.  Of course, EdE is 4 years younger and about $9M cheaper next year.

Manny Ramirez:  Will be 37.  His age-36 season was one for the books, 8th best by OPS+ behind famous juicers Bonds, Ruth, Williams, McGwire, Anson, Dickey, Musial, and tied with McCovey.  He's going to command multiple years at $20M+ per.  JinAZ has his defense at -10.9 in the AL, -2.2 with the Dodgers (and that's compared to the general drivel that gets run out to LF every day).

Pat Burrell:  Will be 32.  A nice hitter, but not what I'd term a real impact bat.  His defense is about average (1.8), which frankly surprises me. 

Magglio Ordonez:  Will be 35.  With 461 PA next year, his contract becomes guaranteed through '11 for $51M.  Almost as bad as Manny defensively (-9.1).

Matt Holliday:  Will be 29.  Will be a free agent after '09.  You know my position - if they think they can sign him long-term, acquire him if at all possible.  A good defender (9.2).

In short, I (obviously) don't like most of the list - a guy who doesn't address the stated purpose, even though he's older and much more expensive than the guy who's already there; an old, very expensive FA who would be a severe defensive liability; a not quite as (1) old, (b) expensive, or (c) good FA; a hideously expensive older player who would be a defensive liability; and Matt Holliday.

I agree that a big RH bat would do wonders for this team; I just hope whatever Jockety does it doesn't either gut the minors for mediocrity or cost a bazillion dollars for past glory.

Unfortunately, his shoulder is hurt, requiring surgery.  He's out for the season.

I don't know if I like this.  I've been firmly behind Slyde's drive to sign Ellis, as you know.  But I'd think a shoulder injury could be problematic.

The good news is he's no longer a 4/$28M player; he could probably be had for 1 or 2 years at $4-5M each now, saving money for the inevitable Holliday trade/extension.

Thoughts?

I’ll start another post that would make an excellent off-day thread.

See this?  Justifications for yesterday’s lineup:

• Rosales, who “hasn’t played much shortstop”, wasn’t started; he played SS exclusively in the minors until TJS.   107-year-old Cabrera, who’s played everywhere but C in his pro career (and except for 1b, he’s played every position more than SS), got the start instead.  FTH?
• Despite the “youth movement”, Patterson was given the chance to further his quest as “worst Red ever” for defensive reasons.  Given the choices, this probably wasn’t a bad idea.
• Bako, on the other hand, was behind the plate because "(y)ou want to put the best team out there defensively and offensively".  Uh, Dusty, the dude’s terrible.  Always has been.  And he’s older than Cabrera.  Meanwhile, Hanigan is neither.  So I ask again:  FTH?

[Note by Rick House, 08/18/08 3:58 PM EDT ]: This should make for an excellent off-day open thread. -Rick

From MLBTR.

First, Jockety has free reins to spend as much of Castellini's money as he wants.  However, this quote bothers me: 

"Dunn was going to be a free agent and Griffey had an option we weren't going to exercise, so we just felt it was time to turn the page and get some players back to help give us more depth," Jocketty said. "They were both guys who had great careers here. But it wasn't working, so we're trying something different."

Now, I don't know anyone that disagrees that Jr. needed to go.  I also don't know anyone who'd say "it was working" in Cinci.  However, Dunn was the best hitter in the lineup (by OPS) he was a regular (based on at least 502 PA, or "a regular player" by baseball stat rules (3.1 PA/team game)) every year except '05, when Jr's OPS was 18 points higher (3 points of OPS+).  If you're struggling, why get rid of your best hitter?  Why cite "free agency" if " majority owner Bob Castellini has made it clear that Jocketty will have free rein to shape the team as he sees fit"?  I can understand blowhard radio announcers blaming the best player for a team's failure, but the GM should know better.  At least I'd hope so.

Second link is human interest only.  Chris Gruler doesn't blame the magic stick.

Boy, was last night’s lineup brutal.  It makes one wonder how Dusty gets paid so much money.

But it got me thinking about batting orders.  I know batting order doesn’t matter much – The Book says so – as long as you have the right people in the order (another discussion altogether).  But they only looked at 2 things:  the optimum order, and what would happen if you put the worst hitter in any spot.  The optimum would look something like this:

2nd best hitter (or best, if nearly equal to #1 and high OBP)

3rd (or 4th, if great baserunner)

5th

Best (or 2nd, if high SLG)

4th (or 3rd, again if high SLG)

6th

7th

8th

9th

Dusty’s lineup last night, though, looked like this (by OPS vs. RHP):

8th

7th

Best

6th

3rd

4th

5th

2nd

9th

In the end, it probably didn’t matter much last night, but this is the type of batting order Dusty uses repeatedly.  So you have to wonder – how many runs is Dusty costing this team by turning the batting order almost completely upside down?

Maybe not clinically, but he's lost perspective, I think.

In his latest column, he addresses the Adam Dunn situation.  In it, he states the Reds would "take a considerable risk if they fail to trade Dunn, then allow him to become a free agent" because if he accepted arbitration "he likely would receive a salary of at least $15 million."

Why is this a "considerable risk"?  Dunn is currently 7th among MLB OFs in OPS.  It's kind of tough to compare, because only 8 of the top 20 have signed free-agent contracts, but it's telling:

* JD Drew - $14M this year and next.  Will be 33, career 130 OPS+.

* Pat Burrell $14M this year, FA next.  32, 120.

* Jermaine Dye - $9.5M this year, $11.5M next.  35, 112.

* Manny Ramirez - $20M this year, at least that next  37, 154(!).

* Carlos Lee - $12.5M this year, $18.5M next.  33, 116.

* Maglio Ordonez - $15M this year, $19M next.  35, 129.

* Johnny Damon - $13M this year and next.  35, 103.

* Carlos Beltran - $18.5M this year and next.  32, 117.

Now some of those guys are obviously better defensively.  But of the guys who've hit as well as Dunn for their career (131 OPS+), Drew is older and a significant injury risk, Manny is significantly older and as bad defensively, and Ordonez is significantly older.

Please, someone, explain to me why one year of Dunn at $15-17M would be a "considerable risk".

So I was bored this weekend, and started rereading Moneyball.

You all (I hope) know the story, and many of the details (if you don’t, you really should read it).  “Greatest book about management ever written!”  screams the cover.  Billy Beane is an arrogant, hotheaded asshole.  Paul DePodesta is a computer geek who should move out of his mother’s basement.  Scouts chew tobacco, have two-syllable nicknames that end in –y, and don’t know anything about projecting performance.  The A’s don’t sell jeans.

Much has also been made of how well the A’s did in the ’02 draft (covered in the book); some say it was merely a function of all of their picks (7 in all), while others point out that even at that, they did better than you’d expect (3 became major leaguers).  As I read the names again, though, it struck me:  How smart was their draft?

First, there was a list of 20 names presented (8 pitchers, 12 hitters) that Beane wanted no matter the cost.  It contained zero high schoolers – Beane thought them not worth the risk.  Second, it should be noted that Oakland’s first pick wasn’t until #16, so you might expect that many of Beane’s favorites would already be taken.

Since he wouldn’t take a high schooler, though, that wasn’t the case.  In fact, Michael Lewis goes out of his way to denigrate those ahead of Oakland.  At #2, Tampa took Melvin (you know him as B.J.) Upton; the Reds then took Chris Gruler.  Other high school players taken before Oakland’s pick included Adam Loewen, Zach Greinke, Prince Fielder, Jeremy Hermida, and Scott Kazmir.  After Oakland took Nick Swisher, Philly followed with Cole Hamels.  Later, they passed on Matt Cain to select Joe Blanton.  The last 1st rounder they took that turned into something was Mark Teahan.

As I was reading this part of the book, two things struck me:

1.  The quality of the high school players they dismissed out of hand (James Loney was also taken in the 1st round)

2.  The fact that every one of the “quality” players they took in the first round, they were afraid weren’t going to be available to them (the first of many Beane f-bomb barrages was when he thought the White Sox would take Swisher).

So for all of Beane’s antics, the snide “They’re smarter than anyone else in the world” tone of the book, and later accolades heaped upon them, the A’s success in that draft was based on taking 3 guys who everyone else also thought of as a 1st rounder, and:

John McCurdy (he lead the NCAA in SLG!!! (of course, DePo’s computer didn’t notice it was 400 pts higher than either his soph or jr. year)) – washed out, never getting above AA.

Ben Fritz – currently pitching in AA for Detroit, sporting a nifty career ERA of 5 and WHIP of 1.5.

Steve Obenchain – never made it past AA for Oakland; last seen in the independent leagues.

And, most famously, Jeremy Brown – made it all the way to the bigs (for 10 AB), but Oakland released him after last year.

My point?  The A’s aren’t (or at least weren’t) all that much smarter than anyone else.  The three guys who made it were on everyone’s list (and Teahan was traded for one of those fungible closers before he made the bigs), while the guys they were so freakin’ smart to draft were not as good as the brainiacs wanted everyone to believe.

You know me; I fully embrace that much of performance can be captured in the numbers.  But maybe, when trying to predict the performance of kids (who haven’t reached their potential, and play against varying degrees of competition), just maybe, scouts are better able to see things then they’re given credit for.

I was listening to the radio broadcast of the game last night while driving home from work as the 8th inning shenanigans were unfolding.  tHom and Brantley were absolutely beside themselves as things unfolded.  After LLM was announced as the pinch hitter, tHom said "Someone has to ask Baker what's he's thinking", referring to both the PH and the Votto bunt.

Well...it doesn't appear that Hal did, nor did Fay, nor Daugherty, nor Trent.  So which of our "reporters" has the guts to ask Baker what the hell he was thinking (1) by asking Votto, his #5 hitter and a guy who's bunted once in 6 years to attempt a sac, and (2) PHing the world's worst PH for Bruce?  Will (or has) one of the Brennemans put him on the spot? 

I'm willing to bet Baker never has to answer those questions.

Chapter 432:

Evidently EdE needs to start looking over his shoulder again.  Keppinger "was going to play third, but with Jerry (Hairston Jr.) out, we need him to play short"?? Is Dusty insane?

Yea, everyone looooves Kepp.  Yea, EdE still chucks the occasional ball into the 3rd deck.  But come on - the offensive difference between EdE/Kepp and Kepp/Janish more than makes up for the defensive difference, doesn't it?  Does Dusty have a "scrappy white guy" quota he has to meet?

Dear Reds Management and Fans:  Edwin Encarnacion is only 25 years old; he just looks like he's 30.  He's obviously still growing as a player, and he's also obviously pretty high strung.  Please quit screwing with him.  Please quit expecting him to anchor the team.  Throw him out there every day, day in and day out, and allow him to grow.  Is he struggling offensively?  Sure, but he's still got an OPS+ of 97 - and his raw OPS puts him smack dab in the middle of MLB 3B this year.

Didn't Dusty just proclaim to the world how much he loves young people?  In the long run, EdE's success is 1000% more important to the Reds than Janish's or Keppinger's, and he's younger than either one.

In the current Jay Bruce love-fest, another move was made today that I'd have thought you guys would be cheering about.

Baseball America reported 3 1/2 hours ago that board favorite Daryl Thompson has been promoted to AAA.  This would appear to be welcome news, as most of the players the Reds have promoted seem to excell at the new level (hear that, Mr. Bruce?).

More importantly, this makes The Trade a winner now, right?  Right?  Nah, I suppose not.

The internet has allowed us, the general public, a new freedom:  The freedom to tell sportswriters what we think in about 30 seconds.  Most sportswriters respond as holier-than-thou, I know more than you do, how dare you question my superior intellect jerks (Wheeler and Doc, I'm looking at you).  In response, we tend to paint all of them with a pretty broad brush.

Back in September, Rod Lockwood at the Toledo Blade reviewed Echos of Cincinnati Reds Baseball, about the great players and teams from Cinci.  I sent him this email:

In today's Blade, you wrote a reveiw of Echos of Cincinnati Reds Baseball.  In it, you make the statement there was "not even an exciting crop of youngsters coming up through the system to spark some optimism."  This couldn't be further from the truth: 

Jay Bruce, an outfielder, was just named Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America.  The 20 year old played at 3 different levels, and ended up with 80 extra base hits (2nd in the minors).

Homer Bailey, pitcher, is also considered among the top 5 prospects in baseball.  He made his major league debut this year as a 21 year old.

Johnny Cueto, another 21 year old, sported a 3.24 ERA pitching at 3 different levels this year, along with an incredible 170/34 k/bb ratio and 1.12 WHIP.

Joey Votto, 1B, was called up September 1.  He already has 2 homers and 2 doubles, leading to a .500 batting average and 1.071 slugging percentage.  He turns 24 tomorrow.

Another 24 year old, Edwin Encarnacion, has been the starting 3B for the Reds the past 2 seasons.   The quality of the top young players for the Reds is beyond dispute.  For someone who presents himself as a Reds fan, you should know these things.

He replied the same day:

I hope you're right, Pete. But when I look at the Reds now I don't see an organization with any cohesive plan to develop a strong minor league crop of prospects who can come up and replace the uninspiring veterans like Griffey, Dunn, Hatteberg and whoever they have at catcher now. David Ross? Javier Valentin?  

Look at some their top picks of the past few years, going back to 1995: Brett Tomko, John Oliver, Brandon Larson, Austin Kearns, Ty Howington, David Espinosa, Jeremy Sowers, Chris Gruler, Ryan Wagner... and you don't see any of these guys starring for the Reds now or forming the nucleus of a team that can contend, much less elevate itself beyond mediocrity.

Compare the Reds lineup and staff to those of Cleveland and Detroit, both of which are stocked with guys who came up through their system and are now key players on teams that contend for the championship. And, better yet, that are built to contend for years to come.  

Homer Bailey is certainly a reason for optimism, but the Reds are traditionally horrible at bringing along young pitchers going back as far as Wayne Simpson and all the way up to Howington, so it's hard to be positive about his development. And Bruce is certainly worth getting excited about, but with Dunn proving to be a Dave Kingman-like bust, Austin Kearns long gone, Ryan Freel spending most of his time on the DL, and Griffey on the downside of his career and likely to move on to a contender, they need at least FOUR outfielders coming up through the system.  

Compare this to the '80s when they had Larkin, Eric Davis, Jose Rijo, Kal Daniels,  Tracy Jones, Joe Oliver, Chris Sabo, Rob Dibble, Norm Charlton, even Kurt Stillwell all coming up through the system. Not all of those guys were on the '90s world championship team, obviously, but they gave the team and the system depth, which is necessary so you can make trades that allow you go out and get veterans who can put you over the top.  

I hate to be negative, but I just don't see a franchise that has a steady plan for long-term success. And living up here I see the Indians and Tigers up close and both of those franchises have clear plans that they're following and they're bringing up players like Sabathia, Verlander, Sizemore, Martinez, Granderson, Bonderman, Hafner, that are young studs who are going to be good -- maybe even great -- for the next 10 years. The Reds, in my mind, aren't even close.   More importantly, thanks for reading the review and challenging my assumptions. I really hope your optimism is more appropriate than my pessimism.   Go Reds.   Rod.

Three things stuck out: 1.  It was a well reasoned response. 2.  He didn't talk down to me. 3.  He didn't jump on me for my last sentence. All well and good.  Frankly, I'd forgotten about it.  Until yesterday:

Pete:   This is Rod Lockwood, from The Blade. I just want to say: you were right and I was wrong. And I write that even though I know I sent you what I thought was a pretty well-reasoned breakdown of the woes in the Reds farm system and player development. But I was basing my view on information that was about two years old, rather than the current situation. In other words, if I was writing in 2006, it would have made more sense.

But today Johnny Cueto struck out 10 guys and got the Red their first win of the season. And I spent some time in southern Ohio recently and listened to a lot of the Reds on the radio and with Cueto and Jay Bruce (who I believe they ought to be playing with the big club), Votto, Keppinger, Homer Bailey, and this new kid pitcher Edinson Voiquez who they got for Josh Hamilton, the future's looking bright.   And when I was down there listening to this stuff, and reading about Bruce in Sports Illustrated, I thought, "I owe that guy who sent me that e-mail about the Reds and their young players a mea culpa." So here it is.

And you were right, I should've known more about their farm system and dug a little deeper in my research and just not included that line in the review. This is a case, though, where I'm happy to be wrong.   Thanks for setting me straight, even though it took me a few months to get the point.   Rod.

Uh, wow.  I didn't know how to respond at first.  Not only did he respond to a conversation from 7 months ago; not only did he admit that he was wrong; he actually said that my snarky comment was right! Rod Lockwood is now my favorite writer.  I don't pay attention to the bylines in the Blade (obviously, they spend quite a bit of ink on the Indians and Tigers), but I'm going to now.

Ya know how they always bury the bad news on Friday afternoon, so that by Monday everyone forgets about it?  I don't think anyone's going to forget this.

So do we now find out if BP can still play SS, and move Kepp to 2B?  Or do we play Kepp there, hoping his limited range don't hurt too badly?  Or do we hope Janish has an awsome spring?

I just saw this over at mlbtraderumors.com.  

For those of you who don't read Japanese, Yukinaga Maeda is a 38 year old crappy lefty reliever.  The article says that he's going to pitch for "a number of MLB teams in the coming days".

We have to hope Krivsky learned his lesson with Stanton, Cormier, Michalak, and Merker (although as I type this, I notice that his last name also starts with M.  Please, God, no.)

In the Cordero thread, ken asked one of the "gatekeepers" to update the payroll spreadsheet on the Wiki.  I've got the info set up with the current 40 man roster.

The Reds currently have 13 guys under contract for '08; if you add in Cormier's buyout (which I don't think they owe, considering he retired), they're obligated for just under $60M for '08; add in Cordero, and it's up to $71.15M for 14 players.  Two guys (Phillips and Cantu) appear to be arb eligible; I'd think no more than $4M for those guys.  The final 9 slots total $3.5M, so right now it appears the payroll will be about $78.5M if no other moves are made.

In other words, if they can trade a salary or two (Freel/Ross/AGon/Hatte), they could add a decent starting pitcher via trade this year and still be about $85M; with Bruce taking Jr.'s spot in '09, the expected arrival of Stubbs and Cueto, and some other contracts expiring, there should be a decent amount of money left going forward, too.

I can email the updated Excel file to one of the gatekeepers (or the keymaster, if needbe).  Also, if anyone knows where I can find who's arb eligible (or service time), please let me know - E$PN, Sportsline, and BBRef don't have it (or aren't clear).

The sky is gray, leaves are falling, and the stove is hot.

This seems like an opportunity the Reds should look in to.  The problem is:  What could the Reds offer?

1.  The Rays are buried under contracts for Overbay (through '10!) and Glaus ('08), so they can't use Hatte, Votto or EdE, even though they would be upgrades.
2.  They certainly don't need any of the outfielders Cinci could/should offer, with Rios/Wells/Lind there now.
3.  They also don't seem to need a crappy catcher or two.

In my mind, the Reds should identify the couple of players who are absolutely, positively untradable (Dunn if they think they can sign him long term, Harang, Bruce, maybe Bailey), and call every team that says "X would be available in the right package".  They should have already called about Lincecum and Santana; nothing is likely to come of it, but it only costs a few minutes and a phone call.  The worst they can do is say "No."

I've had a change of plans.  Originally, I was going to watch the playoffs with the idea of rooting for any NL team not from Illinois.  However, after reading this, any decent person has to now root for the Rockies, if for no other reason than to hope they increase the playoff share they get.

We always hear bad things that athletes do; when they do good things, it's normally through a "foundation" they've created, and it's always for anonymous "kids".  This, though, is something specific for a specific family thrust into a horrible situation.  Coolbaugh didn't earn the big money playing, and certainly wasn't earning it as a minor league coach.  I applaud the players, and hope they win the World Series.

I think I've figured out the problem with this team.

I love the current playoff format; with 30 teams, you almost have to have 4 teams/league making the playoffs.  It still keeps almost 75% of the teams out of the post-season (still far and away the most in pro sports), while keeping the final weeks of the season interesting in more parts of the country.  Then, once in the playoffs, anything can happen (like last year).  Since the wild card was introduced in '95, 4 have won it all, and another 4 lost in the World Series.

The problem comes in when you start trying to make the post-season.  All of the talk has been "what it would take to win the weak NL Central".  Thinking this way is a poor way to run a team, especially one like the Reds, who want to keep a low payroll.  Instead of truly building a team, they rush out for every stopgap they can find to "get them over the hump".  Thus, they end up with guys like Jason Ellison, Mike Stanton, and Juan Castro taking roster spots.

You cannot build a team that will be successful in the long-run with has-beens and never-weres in the lineup (that only works in the movies, and even then, remember that the Indians didn't repeat).  With all of the "win now" talk that Castellini preached when he bought the team, he and Krivsky should do the opposite - devise a plan that would make the Reds in '09 a young, powerful team.  After devising the plan they should not deviate from it for any reason - even if they find themselves truly one player short of the playoffs.  They should also have a 5- and 10-year plan, with the idea of becoming the `90s Braves (with a couple of more WS wins added in).

I am sick and tired of the lowered expectations of this team.  The goal should not be to make the playoffs this year; the goal should be to build an organization that contends for the World Series every year.  Only then will the glory days of the Big Red Machine return to the banks of the Ohio River.