SB Nation User Blog: sidnancy

Dear Dusty:

sidnancy — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 23:07:36 -0000

I'm scared. Really, really scared. There is yet more HAVOC available, and probably cheaply. But there's a limit, isn't there? There's already so much HAVOC on this team it's literally bursting at the seams. The last thing we need is 4 "lead-off" hitters on the team (especially the kind that never, ever get on base).

Please, Dusty, stop. We don't need to add to the HAVOC you've already created. Just keep playing for the walk-off salami; it seems to be working OK.

Your pal,

Sid.

Uh oh.

sidnancy — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 23:48:39 -0000

Via MLBTR:

MLB.com's Ken Gurnick reports that in addition to Dunn, the Dodgers will soon open up talks with Bobby Abreu. They'd like to move Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre if they sign an outfielder.

Why does this scare me? Oh, yea. It's because we've already signed Pierre's less-talented brother for 2 years and apparently have another OF spot to fill with a slap-hitting speedster. Plus, we have all of that money we didn't spend on Dye left over.

Bailey and Dorn for Pierre. Don't say I didn't warn you.

How about this for a trade idea

sidnancy — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 20:14:30 -0000

Conventional baseball wisdom is that you never ever trade within the division. Luckily, I love the unconventional but smart move when it comes to baseball.

What about Mike Cameron? The Yankees have been after him hot and heavy, but shockingly are demanding that the Brewers eat some of his salary (or take all of Kei Igawa's salary).

Want a big RH bat? Cameron makes lefties cry; in the past 4 years his OPS against LHP has been under .900 once. Want to improve the defense? While he's no longer one of the best CF in the game he's still awfully good - JinAz thinks his defense is about as valuable as Dickerson's; UZR had him as the 2nd best CF (the Chone projections are down for some reason). Want a decent value? He's only under contract for '10 at $10M.

Throw Bailey or Arroyo at them (they desperately need pitching; Bailey would offer significant salary savings, but Arroyo might enter the season as their #1 starter). Even if it would take another middling prospect, it would make infinitely more sense than trading for Dye.

Really?

sidnancy — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:36:39 -0000

Khalil Greene?

OK, he's younger than AGon. Plus, thoughout his career, he's been a better hitter. Finally, he should be a defensive upgrade.

But:

1. His OPS+ last year (63) was about the same as Bako's (62) and worse than Keppinger's (70); I thought the idea was to improve the offense.
2. That was before the dumbass broke his hand being a dumbass.
3. He's going to make alot more than AGon next year (both have 1 year remaining on their contracts). Hell, he's going to make more than AGon and Kepp combined, even including AGon's buyout at the end of the year.

Unless the Pads were taking AGon back (why would they?), the Reds would end up with $12M+ worth of SS giving them only slightly better production than the $5.5M SS is likely to give them anyway, plus they'd obviously have to give something up in talent to make the trade.

I need some convincing that this is a good idea.

Jocketty: Reds need RHB

sidnancy — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 17:19:06 -0000

I've got yer analysis right here, buddy.

Evidently, Jockety thinks the team's #1 need is a RH bat (of course, that's from Fay's blog; hell, it could have been Jobba the Hutt that Fay talked to for all we know). The boy(s) over at MLBTR throw out the following names:

Adrian Beltre: Will be 30 years old. Will make $12M next year, then a FA. While he's a plus defender (+22.3 RAR by JinAZ through Sept. 5, best among 3B), he hits about as well as EdE. Of course, EdE is 4 years younger and about $9M cheaper next year.

Manny Ramirez: Will be 37. His age-36 season was one for the books, 8th best by OPS+ behind famous juicers Bonds, Ruth, Williams, McGwire, Anson, Dickey, Musial, and tied with McCovey. He's going to command multiple years at $20M+ per. JinAZ has his defense at -10.9 in the AL, -2.2 with the Dodgers (and that's compared to the general drivel that gets run out to LF every day).

Pat Burrell: Will be 32. A nice hitter, but not what I'd term a real impact bat. His defense is about average (1.8), which frankly surprises me.

Magglio Ordonez: Will be 35. With 461 PA next year, his contract becomes guaranteed through '11 for $51M. Almost as bad as Manny defensively (-9.1).

Matt Holliday: Will be 29. Will be a free agent after '09. You know my position - if they think they can sign him long-term, acquire him if at all possible. A good defender (9.2).

In short, I (obviously) don't like most of the list - a guy who doesn't address the stated purpose, even though he's older and much more expensive than the guy who's already there; an old, very expensive FA who would be a severe defensive liability; a not quite as (1) old, (b) expensive, or (c) good FA; a hideously expensive older player who would be a defensive liability; and Matt Holliday.

I agree that a big RH bat would do wonders for this team; I just hope whatever Jockety does it doesn't either gut the minors for mediocrity or cost a bazillion dollars for past glory.

Mark Ellis just got cheaper

sidnancy — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 15:43:12 -0000

Unfortunately, his shoulder is hurt, requiring surgery. He's out for the season.

I don't know if I like this. I've been firmly behind Slyde's drive to sign Ellis, as you know. But I'd think a shoulder injury could be problematic.

The good news is he's no longer a 4/$28M player; he could probably be had for 1 or 2 years at $4-5M each now, saving money for the inevitable Holliday trade/extension.

Thoughts?

Since I started a minor flame war last week...

sidnancy — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 18:38:58 -0000

I’ll start another post that would make an excellent off-day thread.

See this? Justifications for yesterday’s lineup:

Rosales, who “hasn’t played much shortstop”, wasn’t started; he played SS exclusively in the minors until TJS. 107-year-old Cabrera, who’s played everywhere but C in his pro career (and except for 1b, he’s played every position more than SS), got the start instead. FTH?
Despite the “youth movement”, Patterson was given the chance to further his quest as “worst Red ever” for defensive reasons. Given the choices, this probably wasn’t a bad idea.
Bako, on the other hand, was behind the plate because "(y)ou want to put the best team out there defensively and offensively". Uh, Dusty, the dude’s terrible. Always has been. And he’s older than Cabrera. Meanwhile, Hanigan is neither. So I ask again: FTH?

Couple O' links

sidnancy — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 19:24:20 -0000

[Note by Rick House, 08/18/08 3:58 PM EDT ]: This should make for an excellent off-day open thread. -Rick

From MLBTR.

First, Jockety has free reins to spend as much of Castellini's money as he wants. However, this quote bothers me:

"Dunn was going to be a free agent and Griffey had an option we weren't going to exercise, so we just felt it was time to turn the page and get some players back to help give us more depth," Jocketty said. "They were both guys who had great careers here. But it wasn't working, so we're trying something different."

Now, I don't know anyone that disagrees that Jr. needed to go. I also don't know anyone who'd say "it was working" in Cinci. However, Dunn was the best hitter in the lineup (by OPS) he was a regular (based on at least 502 PA, or "a regular player" by baseball stat rules (3.1 PA/team game)) every year except '05, when Jr's OPS was 18 points higher (3 points of OPS+). If you're struggling, why get rid of your best hitter? Why cite "free agency" if " majority owner Bob Castellini has made it clear that Jocketty will have free rein to shape the team as he sees fit"? I can understand blowhard radio announcers blaming the best player for a team's failure, but the GM should know better. At least I'd hope so.

Second link is human interest only. Chris Gruler doesn't blame the magic stick.

Lineups

sidnancy — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:39:35 -0000

Boy, was last night’s lineup brutal. It makes one wonder how Dusty gets paid so much money.

But it got me thinking about batting orders. I know batting order doesn’t matter much – The Book says so – as long as you have the right people in the order (another discussion altogether). But they only looked at 2 things: the optimum order, and what would happen if you put the worst hitter in any spot. The optimum would look something like this:

2nd best hitter (or best, if nearly equal to #1 and high OBP)

3rd (or 4th, if great baserunner)

5th

Best (or 2nd, if high SLG)

4th (or 3rd, again if high SLG)

6th

7th

8th

9th

Dusty’s lineup last night, though, looked like this (by OPS vs. RHP):

8th

7th

Best

6th

3rd

4th

5th

2nd

9th

In the end, it probably didn’t matter much last night, but this is the type of batting order Dusty uses repeatedly. So you have to wonder – how many runs is Dusty costing this team by turning the batting order almost completely upside down?

Ken Rosenthal is insane

sidnancy — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 14:33:59 -0000

Maybe not clinically, but he's lost perspective, I think.

In his latest column, he addresses the Adam Dunn situation. In it, he states the Reds would "take a considerable risk if they fail to trade Dunn, then allow him to become a free agent" because if he accepted arbitration "he likely would receive a salary of at least $15 million."

Why is this a "considerable risk"? Dunn is currently 7th among MLB OFs in OPS. It's kind of tough to compare, because only 8 of the top 20 have signed free-agent contracts, but it's telling:

* JD Drew - $14M this year and next. Will be 33, career 130 OPS+.

* Pat Burrell $14M this year, FA next. 32, 120.

* Jermaine Dye - $9.5M this year, $11.5M next. 35, 112.

* Manny Ramirez - $20M this year, at least that next 37, 154(!).

* Carlos Lee - $12.5M this year, $18.5M next. 33, 116.

* Maglio Ordonez - $15M this year, $19M next. 35, 129.

* Johnny Damon - $13M this year and next. 35, 103.

* Carlos Beltran - $18.5M this year and next. 32, 117.

Now some of those guys are obviously better defensively. But of the guys who've hit as well as Dunn for their career (131 OPS+), Drew is older and a significant injury risk, Manny is significantly older and as bad defensively, and Ordonez is significantly older.

Please, someone, explain to me why one year of Dunn at $15-17M would be a "considerable risk".