I was at the Wizards-Knicks game tonight, thought I'd share a few thoughts from being there live...

-First off, yeah, John Wall is FAST.  There were a couple spots tonight where you could see him making rookie mistakes (occasional bad pass, etc), but there were also already a few spots where he just took over the game.  6 assists in the box score is deceptively small as well.  He found the open man several times tonight, but the shots just didn't fall.

-Yi's game looked decent, but it was almost all on the perimeter.  The Knicks were giving him the open 20-foot jumper, he was taking it, and it rarely fell.  If that shot falls, then this team will win a ton of games.  If it doesn't, they won't.

-Javale continues to be Javale.  His 6 blocks were electric, and his 6 boards came in only about 16 minutes of work.  He still made some bonehead mistakes, but the guy is just a gamechanger in those areas where he's committed himself.  

-I saw nothing impressive out of Hilton Armstrong.  He displayed zero veteran savvy.

-The 4th quarter was basically Nick against the Knicks.  Dude is a black hole on offense, and is incapable of creating for others when his shot isn't falling.  Just terrible.  

-That said, the Wizards had several really strong quarters and left a lineup of Hudson-Young-Martin-Booker-Yi in for most of that final quarter.  It's preseason, and Flip clearly preferred seeing what they could do over trying for a meaningless W.

...End of the day, this is a Wizards team with plenty of intriguing talent, but it's also tremendously raw.  I expect we're going to see them build and then lose a lot of leads, as teams make mid-game adjustments and the guys just take a little too long to adapt.  The best-case scenario is approximately the "Baby Bulls" from a few years ago, or even the 76ers from two years ago.  When they win, it'll be because of energy and athleticism rather than finesse and fundamentals.

Still, that'll make for a more interesting year than they've had in quite some time.

Well, I think I know how to explain Ernie Grunfeld's decisions today.  Short version: it's Rook's fault.

Consider... Rook spent the past couple months providing us with a wealth of information about draft prospects through this blog.  He's also been a major advocate of the Bring Out Your Dead strategy.  I know that I've enjoyed following the latter picks in this draft a lot more (speaking as someone who doesn't follow college ball closely) thanks to his series.

Now lets look at the picks we made:

-Kevin Seraphin

-Trevor Booker

-Hamady Ndiaye

I'd link to their prospect profiles, but none of them have one.  Rook provided a TON of prospect profiles, but somehow this team danced between the raindrops and managed not to select anyone who'd been covered.  What's going on here?

There are plenty of possibilities.  Maybe Ernie is a genius whose deep research yielded profiles that were totally different from the publicly-available information available to Rook.  Maybe Ernie is overwhelmingly taken with prospect big men.  Or maybe, just maybe, Ernie reads this blog.  And not only does he read it, he reads it and hates bloggers.  And so he read what we posted here and said "f--- those guys.  I'm gonna blow our cap space by overpaying a veteran PG to 'mentor' John Wall, then I'm gonna pick a bunch of guys who never got mentioned on that stupid site, just to spite them.  Stupid bloggers!"

I'm not saying this necessarily is what happened.  I'm just sayin'... it's a more reasonable explanation for tonight's trades and picks than any of the other options out there.

[/snark]

Rook, thanks for all the hard work on the prospect profiles.  Here's hoping for some massive surprises down the line.

Because this is just ridiculous...

Antawn Jamison sprained his thumb tonight.  He nonetheless played 41 minutes.

Javale McGee played 2:30.  Now on the one hand, we had Blatche in there and playing well for most of the game.  But, see above, we should have moved Blatche to the four for awhile and let him play alongside Javale.  2:30?  On a team that is 4-17?  That's not a ride-your-vets-and-eke-into-the-playoffs record.  That's a give-the-young-guys-a-chance record.

Mike James not only started, but played 30+ minutes.  Meanwhile Javaris got a DNP (was he maybe injured and I didn't hear about it or something?).  James had a decent shooting night, but only had two assists and spent an ungodly amount of time dribbling the ball on his own.

Deshawn continued to be the physical embodiment of teh suck.

I'm not arguing for tanking here, mind you.  But this team isn't going to go anywhere without a healthy big three and some confident young fellas coming off the bench.  Why in f*%k's sake are we riding our two all-stars into the ground night after night, denying our young guys PT along the way?  That doesn't make sense in the short term OR the long term.  It's the sign of a coach who's lost, panicked, and over his head.

As much as many of us didn't love Eddie Jordan's substitution patterns, there isn't anything in Tapscott's patterns to even like a little.  It's inexcusable that he isn't giving the young guys a chance to prove themselves, meanwhile wearing out our talented players in godawful losing efforts.  Sit Mike James, play Crittendon, give AJ more time to rest, sliding Blatche to the four, and stop treating Songalia like your backup center.  If you can't pull that off AND you can't win, get the hell off of the team's bench.

So with Caron's recent injury, the Wiz are back to a 9-man squad.  The offense is mired, which is no suprise since we're missing not just our top two scorers, but also our top two point guards, meaning there's no one to act as distributer and get people open looks in the Princeton.  We don't know for the time being how long Caron will be out, but in the meantime, I thought it would be worth speculating on the outcome of a 5-on-5 game between our injured list and our active list.

Injured starting 5:
PG: Antonio Daniels
SG: Gilbert Arenas
SF: Caron Butler
PF: Oleksiy Pecherov
C: Etan Thomas

Active starting 5:
PG: lookin' like Roger Mason these days
SG: Deshawn Stevenson
SF: Antawn Jamison
PF: Andray Blatche or Darius Songalia
C: Brendan Todd Haywood

Poll

Who would win?

94%

The injured 5

16 votes

5%

The active 5

1 votes

17 votes | Poll has closed

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2-4 weeks without AD.  Last I checked, that leaves us with three shooting guards on our roster, plus Caron who can be moved to the 2 spot.  Forget the whole "pure point guard" vs "shoot-first point guard" debate, we don't have a point guard.  We're the Atlanta Hawks North for the next few weeks.

If opposing teams apply full-court pressure, I think the Wizards are toast.  This is worst than that game against Charlotte, where we weren't just missing Gil, Etan, and Pesh, but were without Haywood as well.  There we had to go small because of injuries.  Non-ideal, sure, but teams sometimes go small.  But hell, who's going to call out the offensive sets?!?

Anyone have ideas on how to survive this?

Poll

AD is injured

11%

Caron can play point guard, no problem. Tuff Juice can do anything.

2 votes

33%

Dear Abe Pollin, all I want for Christmas is enough healthy players to run a five-on-five practice

6 votes

33%

It won't be that bad. We've survived Agent Zero being out, we'll survive this too

6 votes

22%

Look on the bright side, we're still better than the Miami Heat.

4 votes

0%

The end has come! This is worse than global warming!

0 votes

18 votes | Poll has closed

So I'm hanging out at home, clicking around NBA League Pass while I wait for the start of the Wizards-Spurs game, and I settle on the Cavs-Pistons matchup.

End of the 1st quarter, Detroit has put our man Arvis into the lineup.  In about a minute and a half of guarding Lebron, he picks up three fouls and turned the ball over once.  ...But that's okay, because at least he went 0-1 from the field and held Lebron to 5 points (would've been 7, but LBJ missed a couple of free throws).  I just grin the whole time while thinking about this year's bench.

Guess not EVERY ex-Wizard goes on to reign in the Motor City.

I probably won't be online for the start of the game tonight, and I dunno if we're going to start having game threads this early in the season, when the lines and the over/unders are less clear.  But if so, I hereby take the Wizards against whatever spread, and I take the under on points by the big 3, who are still a little rusty.

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[Editor's Note: From the diaries. This is your place for discussing what happens now with JCN. I'd love to hear trade proposals, but I ask that you just try to keep them reasonable (e.g. there's a decent possibility of them happening in real life, not just in your head). Also, be sure to read this refresher of what you, the reader, can do here. -Pradamaster]

With Denver's signing of Chucky Atkins, I've resigned myself to the Camby dream-trade not happening.  So much for winning the title next year.

Navarro is going to end up somewhere this offseason, and he's probably going with the Poet in tow.  According to hoopshype, Miami and Memphis are pushing hard, with Cleveland, Boston, and Philly showing interest as well.  Given these teams' rosters, and assuming the contracts will include one of our centers, who do you think Ernie should be asking for from each of these teams?

Sounds like if it's Memphis, we're hoping for Hakim Warrick.  I don't love that trade, but I wouldn't hate it either.

Miami seems ready to make an offer, though it seems like they make an offer for every player in the league.  I'd like to see Doleac included in a trade - he's a non-terrible center and an expiring contract.  they'd need to throw in Dorrell Wright or Wayne Simien to make the numbers work.  I have no opinion on which one would be a better fit for our team.

Not sure what Cleveland would offer.  Maybe Newble's expiring contract, maybe Donyell Marshall.  They can't offer us the big man we need unless it's a sign-and-trade for Varejao, and I'm not convinced he's actually an upgrade over BTH and Etan.

Boston has a mess of young guys, and I know nothing about any of them.

Same basically goes for Philly.  We could get an okay seven-footer in Steven Hunter, and they have a ton of young guys.  NOT Shavlik Randolph, that's all I have to say.

Anybody have any great trade proposals?

Hey folks,

The NBA all-defensive first and second teams were just announced (http://www.nba.com/news/alldefensive_070430.html)

If you scroll down to the bottom, you'll see that our own Agent Zero got one vote for second team status.

We talk a lot on this site about journalists who bash the Wizards and just don't get it.  What I want to know is this: who the HELL thought Gil was one of the top defenders in the league this year?  I mean,  I'm pretty sure "Gilbert Arenas" and "lockdown defender" have yet to appear in the same PARAGRAPH!

I'm unclear whether it's journalists, coaches, or GMs who make this selection.  If someone can clarify that, I'd be interested in hearing guesses as to who cast the errant vote, and do we think it was some sort of joke or something?

They mentioned on nba tv today that, if the playoffs were to start right now, the Wizards would have the third seed behind Detroit and Cleveland.  In past years, the three division winners get the top three seeds, regardless of whether a second-place team in the division has a better overall record than one of them.  That's why the 6th seed is often a good place to be -- the 3rd-place team is sometimes abyssmal.

Is this being misreported, or was there a rules change during the offseason that I didn't notice?

Dear Jarvis,

I want to be a fan, dude.  I really do.
I felt for you during the knee injuries, I've been patient through the shooting slumps.
Tonight, against the Nets, you're even shooting it pretty well.
But there's just one thing:

Learn.  To.  Set.  A.  Fckn.  Pick.

You're filling in for Jamison.  He and Gil run that high pick all the time.  They've got to -- teams love to double Gilbert.  A half-dozen times in a row, I've watched you set up for it.  Then you meekly avoid contact, leave Gilbert stuck, and jump out and wait to take another awful three.

Play like a man, dude.  Set decent picks.

That is all.

[From the diaries. Here's a firsthand recap of the Sixers game. -Pradamaster]

I missed most of the first quarter in icy traffic, but my recap of what I saw of the game is as follows...

First off, thank God for the W.  It was dirty and they barely earned it, but it ought to wash the bad taste out of the team's collective mouth heading into the All-Star break.

Blatche looked great.  The guy has got a real feel for scoring when he gets around the basket, and there were long stretches last night where he was positively looking like a threat to the opposition.  And you just can't argue with 10 boards, 11 points, and 4 blocks.  I won't get too excited until he has a good game against a legitimate starter (Joe Smith was filling in for Steven Hunter), but this is a very positive sign.

The Best Moment of the Evening Award has to go to Songalia, who during the third period actually turned his back to the basket and exhibited some low post moves!  I'm pretty sure this marks the first time this season a Wizards player has executed basic low post offense.  If he keeps improving like that, he can add a lot of value come playoff time.

One place Songalia suffered was on the boards.  At this point, the guy really doesn't have very good hands at all.  On two possessions in a row, he would have had a board but he just couldn't bring the ball down.  Let's hope that's just a conditioning thing.

Speaking of hands, that's the one shout-out I've got to give to Jarvis.  His jumper may still be on extended leave, but he pulled down a couple of crucial boards with authority late in the game.  He isn't reliably great on the glass, but on a day when Brendan Haywood was on auto-pilot (man, how hard did Etan hit him, anyway?), everyone had to help fill in the gap.

As for the offense seeming dead, I have two observations:

1. Gilbert is just plain slumping.  Jamison went through this a couple times last year, and the other guys covered for him.  I mean, the 3's Gil was putting up are shots you want him to take.  His feet were set, he was in rhythm, no one was really challenging.  They just aren't falling right now, and with Antawn out, they're having problems picking up the slack.
2. Back when the offense was clicking, I read an interview with Gilbert (a real blogger would link here, of course) where he was saying that their offense works because they all do different things.  He mentioned that he and AJ run the pick &roll/pick & pop, while Caron gets his isolation plays.  That's part of why the offense is shutting down right now.  They're running the pick & roll with Caron and that isn't where he likes to get his offense.  So then they just do isolation plays, which leave four guys standing around and one trying to be a hero.  That was what went well yesterday about the subs being in during the 3rd/4th -- it was one of the few times they ran the offense the way it's drawn up.  Eddie Jordan has got to get someone else involved in those pick & rolls (Blatche, maybe?) because what they're doing right now reeeeally isn't working.

Besides that, solid defensive effort, they got stops when they needed them and got better and better at rebounding as the game progressed.  Let's hope the break is refreshing for everyone, Agent Zero gets his swag back, and Antawn is ready for action soon.

[From the diaries. Great analysis that goes well beyond what we might think of right away. -Pradamaster.]

Things look really bleak right now.  Arenas can't buy a three-pointer, Antawn is sidelined, and at the end of every first quarter, the wizards are shooting 31% to their opponents' 65%.  Meanwhile, Miami is 5-1 on the month.

I see one upside to this: if the Wizards can survive February, they have a great chance to hold on to the division.  January and February were good months against tough opponents.  As a result, the Wizards don't have a lot of tough games left on their schedule (this is assuming, of course, that they return to form enough to beat teams like Portland).  What's more, Miami still has a number of tough games ahead of them, and Orlando faces a killer schedule after the all-star break.  The analysis is below.  It's still very rough, I'd be interested in comments/feedback:

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