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Mar 27, 2010 Jun 03, 2012 11 999
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2011 NFL Draft Grades: Grades for Each Oakland Raiders Draft Pick
So, after what seemed like an eternity, the 2011 NFL Draft finally happened, and there are plenty of us who are happy, and plenty who are not. What else is new in the Raider Nation, or any fan base, in the days after the draft...?
I'm not sold either way on the draft, either really excited or really bummed, because the usual happened: there is potential for the draft to be very, very good, and the same potential for it to be a lot of nothing.
On to my grades, individually and overall...
So far, so good...
Although we are just through the first three rounds of the draft, I am feeling pretty good about what has been done so far. I love the pick of Wisniewski, and the pick of Barksdale is solid. I liked the positional pick of DB in the third, but am not sure that Van Dyke was the best player available.
Fastest, yes; best, I don't know.
Van Dyke is, quite plainly, scrawny; the two questions regarding him in this draft were why he wasn't able to keep a starting job in school, and if he would be able to handle how physical the NFL game is with his build. At 6'1" and about 165 pounds, he will be giving up some 40 pounds to any number of WR's; if he can't put on weight and strength, he will end up as a nickel or dime guy.
Still, even though I would have liked to see Curtis Brown, I had doubts that something like that would happen, because at the end of the day, Al is still about speed, and that is what Van Dyke has plenty of.
So far, I'm going to rate the draft as a solid B+, and am looking forward to seeing if the draft continues to unfold the way I had hoped...
Signcut's one and only mock
Okay, the season seems to be back on, and because everyone and their brother are throwing mock drafts out there, I'd hate to feel left out and not contribute as well.
So, on to the chase...
Seymour signed...?
That's the rumor.
More as it becomes available...
http://eye-on-football.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22475988/27538700
I'd rather the deal be for 4 years, but as long as it's done, it's a plus.
Certainly the plus to this is that it the starting point for knowing what needs to be done with the rest of the roster. The sooner that the players who are looking at free agency are dealt with, the sooner that moves can be made, or not, depending on the master plan (I am hoping that there is one).
Offseason analysis, not a mock
Because a mock, at this point, is just plain whistling in the dark. Before any kind of mock can be even guessed at, what has to be done is to look at the roster and all of the free agents addressed. Believe me, that is what is happening right now in the Raiders' offices; they are looking at who they want to keep, how much they want to spend, and where that will leave them in terms of the draft and free agents from other teams.
So, first let's look at the salary cap situation, and what might happen next year: the Raiders currently have the highest payroll in the NFL, at about $152 million. Obviously there is not a cap for next year yet (or even a CBA), but let's assume that there will not be another uncapped year, and that the cap expands similarly to how it has in the past and is set at around $145 million. It would seem as if we are already over the cap, but we have a number of players that are going to become free agents (as many as 33), and the value of those contracts are going to come off the payroll, and the cap. As I figure it, those come to a total of about $47 million, which means that the payroll, for salary cap purposes, is about $105 million, but some of those free agents will be coming back. Here is the list of FA's, and their current cap cost (with some estimates when I couldn't find their contract info):
Nnamdi Asomugha, $12.0m
Khalif Barnes, $1.2m
Michael Bennett, $1.5m
Kyle Boller, $1.5m
Michael Bush, $467k, possible RFA
Ricky Brown, $1.5m
Desmond Bryant, $450k
Rock Cartwright, $950k
Jon Condo, $541k
Bruce Davis, $800k
Hiram Eugene, $467k
Charlie Frye, $625k
Robert Gallery, $6.0m
Bruce Gradkowski, $540k, RFA
John Henderson, $4.4m
Mario Henderson, $467k
Johnnie Lee Higgins, $467k
Thomas Howard, $541k
Michael Huff, $950k
Daniel Loper, $1.15m
Nick Miller, $315k, ERFA
Zach Miller, $467, possible RFA
Jarvis Moss, $300k (est)
J.T. O'Sullivan, $250k (est)
Marcel Reece, $320k, RFA
Stanford Routt, $621k
Samson Satele, $465k
Richard Seymour, $3.8m
Sam Williams, $625k
Langston Walker, $1.2m
Kamerion Wimbley, $685k
Now, as I said before, some of these guys won't be back, and some will. There is no way that I can truly say what will happen, but here is a combination of what I would like and what I think the Raiders will do, and some projected cap numbers (remember that cap numbers aren't the same as salary, but what a player counts against the cap, between bonus and salary):
Asomugha - I really don't think that the Raiders can afford to bring him back, although I'd love to see that. My guess is that he will walk, and Al will get a 3rd round compensatory pick. I'd rather have seen him under contract and traded, but...
Barnes - gone
Bennett - gone
Boller - brought back to fight for the back up QB spot; $950k
Bush - kept because he has shown how effective he can be, especially when/if McFadden gets hurt; $1.2m
Brown - kept as insurance, although I don't really see the need to do so; $1.1m
Bryant - becoming a bigger part of the DT rotation, brought back; $450k
Cartwright - brought back, a sparkplug on ST and may move up the depth chart; $900k
Condo - lock to return, IMO; $650k
Davis - may return in place of Brown, at about $800k, otherwise gone
Eugene - gone
Frye - gone
Gallery - I'm thinking that an effort will be made to bring him back, but I also think that he may follow Cable, as he has had more success in the ZBS than in power schemes, at least in part because he was miscast as a LT, and had no support. Still, another compensatory pick, IMO...
Gradkowski - probably brought back, but there is a chance that he will be allowed to walk because of his injury history. I think he'll stay; $650k
J. Henderson - brought back, but at a lower cost, as he is not going to be in the rotation as much as last year; $3.1m
M. Henderson - I see him being brought back to try to play or back up at RT, despite not showing the desire to keep a previous starting spot; $650k
Higgins - gone
Howard - gone
Huff - gone
Loper - brought back, especially in the case that Gallery leaves, as he has shown the ability to be a solid, dependable player; $1.2m
N. Miller - gone
Z. MIller - re-signed, with a healthy raise and bonus; $3.5m
Moss - I'm thinking that they will keep him as insurance, and see how he plays in the preseason; ; $300k
O'Sullivan - gone
Reece - interesting choice, especially with LeRon McClain, rolando's cousin, hitting the free agent market, but I think he stays; $400k
Routt - if Aso does indeed leave, then Routt becomes a 'have to have' player, nobody wants two rookies or new guys to be your starting CB's. Brought back with a raise and fat bonus; $3.5m
Satele - it appears that the team is going to more of a power offense, and Satele just doesn't fit very well in that; gone
Seymour - if he leaves, then the trade for him was a waste, so I don't see it happening; $4.2m
Williams - gone, I hope
Walker - I see him being brought back, as a potential starter at RT but in hopes that he will be a backup G; $1.2m
Wimbley - brought back; $1.2m
These numbers would bring the salary cap payroll up to about $131 million, leaving (if the cap is set at about $145m) about $14 million dollars to spend on the draft and FA. Now, if Al is starting to pay attention again, then he should be noticing that some of the best teams have the most cap flexibilty, becaue they build through the draft, not free agency. I hope that is the case, and that we do not go hog wild this offseason chasing other team's players. I would target Mankins if he becomes available, as it wouldn't skew the numbers that much, and he is one of the best OL in the league. If not, then targeting players like Richie Incognito and Zac Diles, guys that won't destroy cap space, while providing solid play makes more sense as the team hopefully continues to draft well.
As I see it, the positions most needed to be addressed in draft/free agency: OL, DB (especially if Asomugha leaves), OLB, WR (although I don't think that Al sees it that way). Certainly we can use players elsewhere, but these are what I see as the weakest areas.
Thoughts?
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With almost 3/4 of the season gone...
I present a thought for improvement that can take place not only now, but also over the offseason.
The OL is an obvious problem, and has been the weak link on the offense. Even during the win streak, it was only productive on an average level, although that allowed skill players to be more effective. A more effective OL translates to more production from skill players.
My idea?
Take a OT that was well-rated, as high as a second-rounder, from a small school, one who was dominant at a lower level of competition. A 6'6", 311 lb OT that has very good tangibles: size, strength, and quickness. Tony Washington, a player whose skills results were very similar to Bruce Campbell's: 225lb bench - TW 33, BC 34; vertical - TW 29.5, BC 32; broad jump - TW 9'6", BC 8'5"; 3 cone drill - TW 7.52 sec, 7.58; 20 yard shuttle - TW 4.6 sec, BC 4.69; 40 yard dash - TW 5.09, BC 4.85.
Does he have off-field issues? Yes, from his youth, but he hasn't been in trouble for years, and has shown a desire to compete, and a chip on his shoulder to prove that he can play. Can much more be asked of a player, especially one with such physical gifts?
Sign him for peanuts, put him on the practice squad or even on the roster to make sure nobody else signs him. I would wager that by next season, he will be ready to play. At worst he would be only as good as Walker. It seems that B Campbell is going to be looked at more as a OG, which may or may not be where he ends up. Best case scenario: LT Veldheer, LG Loper, C Satele, RG Gallery, RT B Campbell, with Barnes, Henderson, and Washington as backup OT/G's. (I moved Gallery to RG to help Campbell transition) Draft a young, more capable C, and you have a OL that averages 26 years old or less, with only 1 player (Gallery) that is even 30; if the game is won and lost in the trenches, then you have set your trench for some time...
Thoughts at the half
It is starting to look like another lost season.
It isn't because the Rams are so bad, because you can see that they have gotten better, and last year's record is not going to be this year's. It's because the Raiders just can't seem to improve in any real sense.
So far, what I've seen:
First Quarter:
A good defensive start, a big play on special teams, followed by a truly awful decision to go for it on fourth down. I say awful, because points are more important at this point than anything else. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Nice sack by Houston, but that was more on Bradford being young, and not throwing it away.
Heyward-Bey is not looking impressive; trying to catch the ball one-handed is NOT what he should be doing. The ball was there deep, and he blew the play.
Second Quarter:
McClain is having problems, missing tackles and assignments. Is he really ready to start, and does it matter? There isn't anyone else on the roster to step in... not a good situation.
Veldheer came in at LT, and his first play is holding when the DE blows by him. A few plays later, he is flattened by a DB!!! He gets eaten up by Hall for the strip. He is struggling out there... and Satele is still sucking, letting a MLB blitz in untouched for a sack, and not getting a push on the ball. Henderson goes back in and gives up another hit...
Campbell is having another day with the defense in his face, and under constant pressure. In the first half, 1 sack, 6 hits, 8 pressures, two forced fumbles. The pick I am not that upset about: late, trying to get something, anything, and it doesn't hurt. I did wonder why Murphy didn't even get his arms up for the ball; it didn't look that overthrown...
The defense seems to already be losing interest/steam, although they picked it up at the end of the half. They are getting absolutely no help from the offense...
My Take:
No, it's not over, but the coaching staff better get their heads out of their ass, and figure out how to deal with what they have, or don't have. Jackson needs to call plays half as well as the Rams, and get the ball to Miller and McFadden before the rush gets to Campbell. The WR's look to be just blockers at this point; I will be surprised if, at this rate, any of them get over 500 yards for the year. The defense needs to stay in their gaps, and give up an extra yard or two on the rush than 15 on the play-action.
I am not happy with the players, but the game plan/coaching look even worse...
Opening day is done and gone, what about next week?
Opening day, as ugly and disappointing as it was, is history. Nothing can be done to bring it back, or change the result.
So... what can we hope for next week?
Here is my list, with possible solutions.
Helluva disappointing game... BUT
Why are we already savaging those who were being praised just a week ago?
"Jackson sucks"
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Game posts, Tennessee v Oakland
The season begins!
Not an auspicious start for Figurs; not a hard hit, but the ball was being carried like a loaf of bread. Decent blocking, we'll see how that plays out...
First drive... Surprised that as picky as the NFL is about the QB that that couldn't be called a penalty (the forearm shiver to Campbell)
No whistle/call? I don't think that that would have been called if everything didn't stop, which makes you wonder, WTF?
Nice running by McFadden, tough yards, but that's going to happen. He didn't go down immediately.
Not bad protection, but nothing open downfield apparently.
Meh. Not a great start...
First home game
I've never seen the Raiders play in Oakland, the only home games I've been to were in LA. It looks like I am going to be at the Miami game 11/28, and would appreciate any tips on seating. I normally don't try to get field level, but about 20 rows up around/between the 40 yard line. It looks like this would put me in Sections 115-119, 140-144, or maybe 215-219.
Any suggestions?
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