Welcome back, everybody. I apologize for my three-week hiatus, but I guess that's what the first playoff appearance (and loss) in 12 years will do to us die-hards. For the second consecutive year, I have decided to preview the biggest game of the season the only way I know how: On Paper.

For those of you unfamiliar with my style of previews, last year's Super Bowl post has an overview of the purpose of these previews and a guide to the charts. Here's a snippet:

"On Paper" focuses on a few important stats to predict the outcome in many phases of the games. The key aspect of my previews is a focus on past game performances but taking into account the strength of the opponent. For example, a team that allows 270 passing yards in a game is seemingly having a bad day. However, if that game is against the Saints, who average around 277 passing yards a game, the defense actually did a somewhat good job holding the Saints below this average. These previews focus on such statistics that mostly go unnoticed.

The only difference from last year's style is that I have now added yellow to my charts. A yellow cell signifies that the team performed within 5% of the opposition's average.

Anyway, I will try and add some interesting statistics along the way that you can use to impress the other people at your Super Bowl party. Enjoy.

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We've waited 12 years for this moment, and it's almost here. The elusive playoffs. Though last week has left a bad taste in our mouths, focus has shifted to the deadly New Orleans Saints. The Saints are playing at an extremely high level and have literally been unbeatable at home. The Detroit Lions, too, are hitting their stride, especially on offense (averaging over 35 points in their past four games).

The two teams faced off in early December, with the Saints holding off a late comeback from the Lions. Statistically speaking, the two teams played a nearly identical game. The Saints had 338 yards passing and 100 rushing; the Lions had 379 passing, 87 rushing. The Saints averaged 7.2 a play, Lions 6.8. The biggest difference was penalties. The Lions had 11 for 107 yards, while the Saints only had three for 30.

So are the Lions doomed to stick with the Saints only to have another letdown? Will the surging Saints blow the Lions out of the water on their way to another Super Bowl run? Or will the Lions shock everyone and send the Saints home for the second consecutive wild-card weekend? All that, AND MORE, on the first ever Lions Playoff Edition of "On Paper!"

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This week, instead of reliving the baffling regular-season finale that was the Packers game, I've decided to look forward to the Saints by looking back at the Lions' previous matchup with them. When I first analyzed the game, I focused on the game Nick Fairley had. This time around, I want to focus on what the Lions did well and what they'll need to improve upon to come away with a victory this time around.

Though the final score of the game was a decisive 31-17, the game was very much up for grabs in the final quarter. With 13 minutes left in the game, the Lions had the ball at the Saints' 35-yard line only down by seven (they would eventually miss a long field goal, giving the Saints a short field). Though the stat line looks ugly, the Lions defense actually did a good job limiting the Saints offense. The Saints are averaging 41.1 points per game at home, so holding them to 31 points was actually a pretty big accomplishment. Here's how the Lions hung with the Saints.

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It's the final game of the regular season, but the Detroit Lions find themselves in a completely unfamiliar spot. Instead of having little motivation to win because they are already out of the playoff race, they have little motivation to win because they already have the playoffs wrapped up. Now I know the difference between a win and a loss could mean facing New Orleans versus facing Dallas, but if the Lions are going to make a playoff run, they're going to have to go against good teams eventually. No matter what happens, the game being played next week will be more important than the game this week.

The Lions are getting healthier but will have to face some tough decisions. Should they give some players an extra week of rest, or fight for that five seed. The Packers, on the other hand, have nothing to play for. They already have the one seed wrapped up and will likely rest a good amount of starters at some point in the game. I figure most starters will get some playing time, just to stay fresh (especially considering they will have next week off), but I don't expect to see much of Aaron Rodgers and the gang past the first half. Vegas appears to have the same sentiment, as the Lions actually enter Lambeau as a 3.5-point favorite. Here's where the teams stand statistically:

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Today, I'm going to take a different angle to this article. Instead of breaking down the X's and O's of specific plays, looking at how a play developed, I'm just going to let you sit back and marvel at how amazing Matthew Stafford was on Saturday. His accuracy was off the charts, his decision making was brilliant and he likely had his best game of his career when a playoff berth was on the line. He may not be a Pro-Bowler, but I'd be hard-pressed to find an NFC team who would take a quarterback not named Rodgers, Brady or Brees over Stafford.

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Here we are. One win away from the postseason for the first time in over a decade. Many of you predicted we would be here, others thought the schedule was too tough or that we're still a year or two away. Regardless of what we predicted, this is the reality: the Lions are 9-5 and have a very good opportunity to be playing into January.

On Christmas Eve, the Lions face a team that is in desperate need of a win to have a shot at the playoffs. After a mid-season six-game losing-streak, playoffs were the last thing on Chargers fans' minds, but after an extremely impressive three-game winning-streak, San Diego's postseason hopes are alive, though hanging by a thread. Vegas has the Lions favored by around one point. The charts, too, predict an extremely close matchup, but do they agree with the favorite? Keep reading to find out.

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It took me a while to decide what I should review this week. Should I go with the Lions' short-yardage troubles? Should I highlight two noticeable misreads by Matthew Stafford that worked out anyway (the Nate Burleson touchdown and a 24-yard pass to Calvin Johnson)? Should I break down how poorly the beaten-up secondary is playing? Then I realized, why in the world would I focus on something negative when the game ended with such an unreal performance by Stafford and Calvin Johnson? There were three key plays on the final drive involving these two, and they made it look incredibly easy.

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It started in April. For most football fans, the day of the schedule release is a fun little mid-Spring day of football news. For displaced fans, it's an event. A group of former Michigander friends and I have made a pledge to go to at least one NFL game per year (with a Lions game as a priority). In 2009, we made the trek to San Francisco. Last year, with no Lions games on the west coast, we traveled to San Diego to watch the Chargers take on the Patriots. I was lucky enough to be in Florida during the Lions' two road games in the Sunshine State last year and was able to watch the Lions break their road losing streak in Tampa Bay and then follow it up with a win in Miami.

This year, we already knew the Lions would be playing in Oakland -- the question was when? Finally, the schedule was posted, and we saw the day of our planned game: December 18, 2011: the week before Christmas. This was troubling, at first. I wasn't sure I'd be able to take enough time off of work to go to the game and also visit my family. But it didn't matter, we'd make it work.

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After holding off the Vikings last week and Marion Barber fumbling away the game for the Bears, the Lions find themselves in a playoff spot once again. In order to stay there, the Lions will have to take down a talented Oakland Raiders team in a hostile environment this week. The Raiders are coming off of an embarrassing spanking by the undefeated Green Bay Packers. The Raiders are 7-6 overall and just 3-3 at home. The Lions are one-point road favorites this week. In other words, it's a toss-up. Let the charts decide their fates.

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Easily the most frustrating part of the Lions' near-collapse against the Minnesota Vikings was second/third-string quarterback Joe Webb running wild on the Detroit defense. In the post-game press conference Jim Schwartz gave Webb a lot of credit, saying that they threw a lot of looks at him and Webb countered nearly all of them:

Our hat is in full off position to Joe Webb because he was very, very difficult for us to handle. We tried everything. We were spying him with five guys, we were spying him with four, we were playing coverage – we were all-out blitzing him.

Let's take a look at some of these defensive schemes and break down why they failed against Webb. WARNING: PAINFULLY GRAPHIC IMAGES OF BAD DEFENSE AHEAD

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The Lions face the Vikings for the second time this season. The last time the two teams met, the Lions overcame an early 20-point deficit to shock the Vikings. This week, the stakes are much higher for the Lions. If the Lions are going to make the playoffs, this is an absolute must-win for them. A loss will cost them their best opportunity for a win on the schedule and will be a devastating in-division loss, likely costing them the tiebreaker with the Bears. The 2-10 Vikings seemingly hate Detroit and would love for nothing else than to keep them out of the postseason. Let's go to the charts.

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One of the few positive things to emerge from Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints was the play of Nick Fairley. Of course, like most good things as a Lions fan, it was taken away from us too early. Fairley left the game with an injury and barely saw the field after the second quarter. But let's not focus on this. Fairley will eventually rebound from his injury, and if Sunday night was any indication, his future is very bright. Despite only getting about half of the snaps in the first quarter, he still managed two tackles (one for a loss) and one sack. Let's go to the tape.

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The schedule makers in the NFL are a cruel, cruel bunch. A week after facing the defending champion Green Bay Packers on national television, the Lions are headed to the Big Easy to battle a New Orleans Saints team that just destroyed the New York Giants. Once again, the Lions will be on display for the entire nation, but not the Detroit Lions that we know. The Lions defense has been depleted by injuries and suspensions, and possibly at the least convenient time. Not surprisingly, Vegas is not optimistic about the Lions' chances this week. The Saints are around a nine-point favorite and almost all the pundits are predicting a Saints win. Will the charts provide any glimmer of hope? Only one way to find out ...

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In the first half, the Detroit Lions were doing an excellent job of holding Aaron Rodgers in check. Rodgers was only 9-15 for 65 yards and a touchdown at halftime. But things didn't go as well in the second half. The Lions quickly found themselves without the services of Chris Houston and Louis Delmas, who both were injured in the first half. In their absence, the secondary failed to step up and allowed Rodgers to finish with over 300 yards and two touchdowns. Let's break down a couple plays highlighting some secondary mistakes made by the Lions in the second half.

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Here we are again. Another boring Thanksgiving Day. The Lions are playing for nothing more than the opportunity to not embarrass themselves on a national stage. Get ready to shove stuffing down your throats to kill the pain of another Lions loss ... what? What's that you say, little voice in my head? The Lions are 7-3 and in the midst of a heated playoff race? The Packers are coming into this game undefeated, but on a one-game losing streak at Ford Field? Why, that sounds like a somewhat entertaining matchup. Yes, yes it does, and I think everyone in Detroit agrees.

Ford Field will be rocking on Thursday as the Lions face their toughest opponent of the year. Vegas isn't giving Detroit much of a chance, making them seven-point underdogs. However, the word of the almighty chart has yet to be heard.

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Of all the great stories that came out of the Panthers game (Matthew Stafford's rebound, another double-digit comeback, etc.) none was more impressive than Kevin Smith's 201 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns. It was unexpected from most, inspiring to all. And while his day was great, he got a lot of help from his offensive line, especially on his big play: his first rush of the game. Let's break it down.

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Last week, the Carolina Panthers struggled to do anything right. They lost the turnover battle, they gave up a special teams touchdown, they were sacked five times and failed to score a touchdown. Over in Chicago, the Lions did not fare any better. Detroit lost six turnovers, also gave up a special teams touchdown, and only scored a touchdown when the game was theoretically over, on their way to a 37-13 shellacking. Both teams are obviously looking to rebound in a big way. Carolina needs a win to keep the Cam Newton Optimism Train on the tracks. Detroit needs a win to keep playoff hopes alive and well. The Lions are seven-point favorites at home, but I can't help but feel a little weary after last week's game. Let's go to the charts.

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Welcome all. I hope you all enjoyed your bye week. I can honestly say that I did not. After years of having a sense of relief every bye week, it was a terribly disappointing Sunday watching football without the Lions on the slate.

This week, the Lions come into their biggest game of the season well-rested, yet still unhealthy. They will likely be without Jahvid Best, Jason Hanson hurt himself over the break (though he'll probably play anyway) and literally while I typed this sentence, the Lions signed a new punter (and disappointingly put Jason Fox on IR). All this comes at a terrible time, as this game against the Chicago Bears is absolutely essential to the playoff race. Besides this being an ever-important division game, the Lions have an opportunity to take a commanding lead in the wild card race. With a win, the Lions will essentially have a three-game lead over every NFC team besides the Falcons in the wild card race (two game lead over Bears, but with the tiebreaker, it is equivalent to three games). Despite their earlier victory over the Bears on Monday night, the Lions are actually two to three point underdogs in this game. Let's see if the charts agree.

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The Lions come off their second consecutive loss looking to turn things around against Tim Tebow and the Broncos before they head to the bye week. By records alone (5-2 vs. 2-4), this looks like the perfect game for the Lions to head to the bye week on a positive note. But the Broncos are riding high after a dramatic win with Tebow behind center. The Lions are only a three-point favorite according to Vegas, but the charts say something different (or do they?). Check it out.

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Last week, "On Paper" once again, predicted the future, albeit against my own desires. That moves the feature to 6-0 on the year, and with fairly decent score predictions as well. At this point, I have fully accepted that I am no longer predicting the future, but creating it. Therefore, I want to apologize to the city of Detroit for last week's loss. The problem was not with Stafford, or the run defense or special teams coverage. No. It was clearly me. I will try to do better, but you must realize I am at the charts' mercy. So pray to the almighty Chart Gods that they will be kinder to the Lions this week against the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons.

Lions Pass Offense (8th) vs. Falcons Pass Defense (27th) 

Okay, off to a good start.

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The Lions are now 5-0 for the first time since some year no one remembers (sorry aged readers). This week, they have a short week for their second game of a three-game homestand and face a 4-1 49ers teams that could have very well been the third undefeated team in the NFL. Their lone loss was to the Cowboys in overtime, after holding a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. As noted by a San Franciscan friend of mine, the two teams face each other with a combined record of 9-1, while last year, at this time, the two teams were a combined 1-9. The Lions are four-point favorites in this highly anticipated game. Let's go to the charts.

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Last week, the Detroit Lions completed another unbelievable comeback at the hand of the Dallas Cowboys, edging them out 34-30. I'm not usually one to toot my own horn, but sitting at 4-0, I'm feeling extra cocky this week, especially considering my prediction of 30-27 was pretty close, once again. 

This week, the Lions host the Chicago Bears and the Monday Night Football crew. This will be the first time the Lions host a regular season Monday Night Football game in almost exactly ten years (their last appearance was Oct. 8, 2001) and Ford Field will be bumping. The Lions are six-point favorites, according to Vegas, but what do the almighty charts say?

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For the second week in a row, the Detroit Lions seemed to play two completely different games: the first half and the second half. The biggest difference between the halves this week was undoubtedly the pass defense. Here's a couple fun little stat lines provided by ESPN's NFL Primetime: 

And then...

Yikes.  So what can we make of this striking difference. Did Romo collapse? Did the Lions make the right defensive adjustments? Did Dallas make the wrong adjustments? Well, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle of all that. I'll look at two similar plays from the first and second halves and show you what happened differently after the jump.

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Last week, the Lions pulled off an amazing 20-point comeback against the Vikings. When the Lions got the game to 17-20, I was getting pretty excited about the chances of a win, but I couldn't help myself from getting a little giddy about my 24-20 prediction. In the end, I didn't have an exact prediction for the second time in three weeks, but I was pretty darn satisfied with the final result.

This week the Lions take the national stage as FOX's premier game against the Cowboys. The Lions come to Dallas as one-point underdogs despite their 3-0 record. Oddsmakers apparently were convinced by the Cowboys' impressive (?) win over the Redskins on Monday night. Not sure I agree with that, but what do the numbers say?

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Jared Allen had himself quite a day against the Detroit Lions last week. Allen tallied three sacks and seemed to torment Jeff Backus all afternoon. This came as a shock to many, as the Lions had not given up a sack prior to the Minnesota game. If Detroit had not pulled out the win, Backus would, no doubt, be considered the goat of the game and might have been run out of town (especially considering his play in Detroit's last possession of regulation).  

I wanted to look at the three sacks by Allen and see what went wrong and who's to blame. The Lions go up against another premier pass rusher in DeMarcus Ware on Sunday, so these issues need to be solved immediately.

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Welcome back, everyone. This week, the Lions head to the Metrodome, where they haven't won since 1997, yet are three-point favorites in the matchup. Let's see what the numbers have to say:

Lions Pass Offense (6th) vs. Vikings Pass Defense (23rd)

*GASP* The Lions failed to outperform the Chiefs' averages in quarterback rating allowed. As shocking as that may be, I don't think anyone in their right mind would consider Matthew Stafford's performance last week as below-average. I highly doubt the Chiefs will continue to allow a 114.3 passer rating on average. The Lions passing attack continues to be lethal and has showed little signs of stopping. 

Pass protection has been pretty solid, as well. While the Lions are the only team in the NFL who has not allowed a sack, Stafford was hit plenty of times last week.

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