SB Nation User Blog: simscity

On Paper: Lions vs.Cardinals

simscity — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:11:44 -0000

Because I refuse to talk about the draft.

On Paper is a weekly segment where I take a look at the Lions' weekly matchup and dissect each unit. At the end of each unit summary, instead of giving a typical "Advantage Lions" or "Advantage Opponent", I award one of the teams with a point value of 1-5 (or give it a draw). These point values are based both on talent and the influence that this unit matchup will have on the game outcome. A lot of my conclusions are based on the Lions opponent's previous games.

Lions Pass Offense (20th) vs. Cardinals Pass Defense (28th)

Cardinals Opponent	Opponent's Passing YPG	Passing Yards vs. Cardinals	Opponent's Season QB Rating	QB Rating vs. Cardinals
49ers	189.8	209	81.8	89.3
Jaguars	213.0	282	84.8	79.8
Colts	297.2	379	101.0	130.5
Texans	285.5	371	95.3	96.3
Seahawks	223.5	112	83.6	32.5
Giants	257.2	243	93.2	47.5
Panthers	169.8	90	60.3	94.3
Bears	219.2	369	75.1	98.6
Seahawks	223.5	315	83.6	59.4
Rams	181.9	215	65.2	57.8
Titans	195.1	387	77.0	99.7
Vikings	254.0	275	106.4	79.4
49ers	189.8	144	81.8	59.7

In terms of yardage, this does not look like a very solid Cardinals defense. Nine of their 13 opponents put up more yardage against the Cardinals than their season averages. However, yardage does not tell the story. Arizona has held over half of their opposing quarterbacks to under their QB rating average. What this usually means is that opponents are putting up a lot of yards in garbage time when Arizona has built up a solid lead. This could also mean that while Arizona gives up a lot of yards, they tend to capitalize on mistakes by forcing interceptions. This is confirmed when seeing that Arizona has 15 interceptions on the season (9th).

What this means for Detroit is that they'll probably put up a little more yards than their season average (202), but will likely turn the ball over a lot. The likelihood of a couple interceptions is only increased by the fact that Daunte Culpepper will likely start the game again this week. Culpepper showed quite a bit of carelessness last week, throwing up prayers to Calvin Johnson, who was often in double and triple coverage.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie leads the Arizona secondary and will likely be the one to cover Johnson. Rodgers-Cromartie is known for his tremendous speed and that will no doubt help covering Megatron. But Johnson's talents don't stop at speed; his incredible vertical leap will pose the biggest challenge for the 6'2" corner.

Given how poor this offense has looked with Culpepper behind center, it's hard to give them the advantage, even if they're going up against the 28th ranked defense. The turnovers give Arizona the advantage. Cardinals +1.

Lions Run Offense (26th) vs. Cardinals Run Defense (17th)

Cardinals Opponent	Opponent's Rushing YPG	Rushing Yards vs. Cardinals	Opponent's Season Avg YPC	YPC vs. Cardinals
49ers	98.8	21	4.4	0.8
Jaguars	128.6	92	4.5	4.6
Colts	86.1	126	3.7	4.1
Texans	88.7	45	3.4	2.1
Seahawks	91.0	14	3.8	1.3
Giants	125.2	107	4.3	4.1
Panthers	149.9	270	4.8	6.1
Bears	85.8	70	3.9	5.8
Seahawks	91.0	164	3.8	6.8
Rams	117.0	123	4.5	4.6
Titans	165.3	163	5.3	7.1
Vikings	125.0	62	4.2	3.1
49ers	98.8	189	4.4	5.3

The Cardinals started off the season strong, only allowing 298 yards in their first five games (59.6 a game). However, since then, they've given up over 100 yards in six of their following eight games. Though they rank 17th overall, the Cardinals have played more than half of their games against bottom 10 run offenses. This defense, while serviceable, is not dominant by any means.

Unfortunately for Detroit, just as things seemed to be turning around for their running attack, Kevin Smith went down for the season with a leg injury. Maurice Morris has been an adequate backup, but it remains to be seen whether he can carry the bulk of the load. Rookie Aaron Brown is likely to see a significant amount of playing time as well.

I see the Lions performing very close to season averages at 95.5 yards and 3.8 a carry. However, if they fall behind early (quite likely), I would expect somewhere around 60 total yards. Draw.

Cardinals Pass Offense (7th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32nd)

Cardinals Opponent	Opponent's Passing YPG Allowed	Passing Yards Allowed vs. Cardinals	Opponent's Season QB Rating Against	QB Rating Allowed vs. Cardinals
49ers	243.6	288	81.2	67.2
Jaguars	244.4	243	93.0	131.2
Colts	225.5	322	78.8	67.1
Texans	214.8	302	84.9	109.8
Seahawks	252.8	276	94.7	100.8
Giants	206.5	231	91.8	72.8
Panthers	192.4	242	73.1	47.8
Bears	200.8	261	88.4	132.9
Seahawks	252.8	340	94.7	120.5
Rams	222.8	261	94.8	118.4
Titans	258.8	220	92.9	88.1
Vikings	216.7	285	90.3	127.7
49ers	243.6	178	81.2	44.9

There's nothing good about this matchup for Lions fans. Kurt Warner comes into town with a solid QB rating (93.5) and loads of talent at the receiver position. The Lions could catch a break (they won't) if Larry Fitzgerald is sidelined with a knee injury. Fitzgerald is, in my opinion, the best receiver in the game, but Arizona doesn't really need him. Detroit, too, is hobbled by injuries. Specifically, their only above ~~average~~ terrible defensive back, Louis Delmas, has yet to practice this week and is questionable to play.

Arizona has only failed to put up at least 220 passing yards once this season, and have surpassed a 100 QB rating seven times already this season.

The only way Detroit has ever had a chance to win this matchup is with pressure on the quarterback. Unfortunately, the Cardinals have only given up 22 sacks this season (5th), while Detroit has only managed 21 (29th). Warner will break the 300 barrier and dominate the Lions on Sunday. Cardinals +4.

Cardinals Run Offense (27th) vs. Lions Run Defense (24th)

Cardinals Opponent	Opponent's Rushing YPG Allowed	Rushing Yards Allowed vs. Cardinals	Opponent's Avg YPC Allowed	YPC Allowed vs. Cardinals
49ers	95.9	40	3.7	2.4
Jaguars	103.7	118	3.9	4.2
Colts	112.4	24	4.1	2.0
Texans	114.5	44	4.4	2.8
Seahawks	104.3	62	4.2	2.4
Giants	100.6	72	4.0	3.3
Panthers	137.3	94	4.6	5.5
Bears	128.8	182	4.4	5.9
Seahawks	104.3	122	4.2	4.1
Rams	147.2	183	4.6	6.1
Titans	98.8	75	4.2	3.8
Vikings	86.9	113	4.1	4.5
49ers	95.0	85	3.7	4.7

In spite of being ranked a mere 27th overall, the Cardinals running attack has averaged 5.0 a carry since week 8. While it would seem that the Cardinals have figured out the solution to their early season woes, at least part of this statistical shift is because the Cardinals have faced worse run defenses in the second half of the season. However, Beanie Wells has also taken a bigger role in this offense in the second half of this season, and he's starting to become a real threat. He and Tim Hightower are both averaging a very respectable 4.4 yards per carry.

Last week, the Detroit secondary decided they didn't want to blow the game through the air, but on the ground instead. Safeties were blowing tackles like they were balloons, and the linebackers were nowhere to be seen. While Baltimore's run game is undoubtedly better than Arizona's, my confidence in this unit has been broken beyond repair. However, because I don't think it'll make or break this game, I'm only going to give Arizona a +1 advantage.

Special Teams

Arizona has the 4th best kick return coverage in terms of return average. But in terms of their own kick returns, they are middle of the pack (9th). Detroit is near the bottom in kickoff returns (29th) and about average in coverage (22nd).

For the first time since I've been a true Lions fan, I feel like we're outmatched at the kicker position. The Lions and Cardinals are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Cardinal Neil Rackers is a young kicker (as far as kickers go, 33 is young) who ranks second in the league in field goal percentage (though he hasn't had an attempt over 50 yards). Lion Jason Hanson is dwindling towards the end of his career and is ranked 25th in FG percentage. Hanson has missed a field goal in five out of his last six games. Hanson has always been a reliable kicker on a roster filled with disappointment and inconsistency. His decline is one of the most depressing things about this season. Cardinals +1

Overall

Arizona ends up with a fairly significant +7 advantage. However, there is really only one matchup that matters in this game. The most likely outcome of this game is Kurt Warner putting this game away in the first half and coasting the rest of the way. The Lions secondary is way too bad to even challenge Arizona's talented wide receivers. Be prepared with a backup game to watch on Sunday. 38-9 Cardinals.

Read me at http://www.studyofsports.com/?cat=142

The Worst 30 Minutes of Football

simscity — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:13:38 -0000

This article is available WITH A PICTURE at http://www.studyofsports.com/?p=3403

There was 4:32 left in the first half, and the Detroit Lions found themselves down 10-3 to the Ravens. The Lions had actually played a very solid game up until then. They had already amassed 176 yards of offense and had had two drives of 10+ plays and over 50 yards. If it weren't for a couple miscues on 3rd and short and another missed field goal from Jason Hanson, they may have actually been leading at this point in the game.

Even the defense had been somewhat stout. True they had given up gains of 52 and 60 yards, but they had stepped up when they needed to. Larry Foote forced a fumble in the red zone, and Detroit held strong when the Ravens threatened late in the first quarter, holding them to just a field goal.

But then something happened.

Some Lions fan somewhere must've kicked Buddha (who is a big football fan, by the way*) in the nuts, because vengeance was poured down upon Jim Schwartz and his puny little team. In what was a very un-Buddha like punishment, the Lions crawled off the field on Sunday the whippee's of a 48-3 spanking at the hand of the Ravens.

Let's break down Buddha's unforgiving wrath:

The next drive of the game was a quick 4-play drive that ended in Ray Rice going 59 yards for a touchdown.
The Lions then went three and out. Er...check that. The Lions ran for four yards, got sacked, and then Daunte Culpepper threw an interception. I don't think it counts as a three and out when the "three" and the "out" are simultaneous.
Baltimore drives half the field and tacks on another three. The ensuing kickoff is returned to the five yard line. Unfortunately for the Lions, it was their own five yard line, effectively ending the half.
The Ravens quickly squash any hopes of a second half comeback when their opening drive goes 11 plays and 74 yards for a touchdown, putting the score at 27-3.
Lions three and out.
Baltimore 6 plays, 61 yards, 34-3.
Lions three and out.
Baltimore 6 plays, 70 yards, 41-3.
Lions attempt three and out, but are bailed out by a fourth down facemask call. Buddha, angered by this obvious miscue, decides to go after Detroit's only bright spot of the past two games, Kevin Smith, and explodes his knee on the next play. Three plays later, Daunte is picked off again.

So if you're keeping score, from 4:32 left in the first half to 13:21 left in the game, the Ravens put up 31 points to Detroit's zero and 316 yards of offense to Detroit's 60.

I could finish the game, but since I couldn't finish watching it, there's no point. I don't remember any time in my Lions fandom in which I actually uttered the words, "Can we watch a different game for the fourth quarter?" but I really couldn't stand to watch it any longer.

At one point in the game, Schwartz called a timeout to cuss out his defense, hoping to light some fire that had burned out long ago. Two plays later, Willis McGahee trotted in from 19 yards after breaking a couple of two-hand-touch attempts. Buddha's belly bounced up and down with laughter.

Okay, now time for some actual analysis.

Even though this was the most miserable attempt at football I have seen in awhile, I'm not all that distressed by what I've seen. In the end it was one game. A team with nothing left to play for against a team that desperately needed a win. A team whose young starting quarterback was given a week's vacation against a team whose young starting quarterback is starting to come back to life.

Detroit's secondary needs to take a lot of blame for this game. If Rice is running for 5-10 yards on each play, then put it on the linebackers. But the Ravens had eight rushes of over 10 yards on Sunday. After Louis Delmas went down late in the 2nd quarter, the safeties must have combined for more missed tackles than Delmas has had in the entire season. If missed tackles were points, the Lions would've won on Sunday by a landslide and Marvin White would be the league leader in scoring.

But none of this is really a surprise. The Lions have absolutely no depth in the secondary after a ton of injuries have decimated their already poor crew.

We already knew that Daunte couldn't really lead this offense. If anything, he performed above my expectations. In the first half, it actually seemed like our offense was somewhat competent.

So even though I witnessed the worst football I've ever seen by this team across a period of two quarters, I feel no different about this team than I did last week. It's still a team led by a handful of guys with talent, with absolutely no depth at any position on the roster. So I'm putting this one behind us and hoping that Buddha does the same.

*In case you couldn't tell from his size, he's a Packers fan

On Paper: Lions vs. Ravens

simscity — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 08:27:16 -0000

Yes, I'm still doing these...

Well, we've gotten to the point in the season where we pretty know exactly what to expect out of the Lions. The team has established its identity as a bottom five team in the league. At this point in the season, the goal is to improve the young guys and see what you have in players who haven't gotten a lot of playing time. With that in mind, Jim Schwartz decided to bench the injured Matthew Stafford in favor of Daunte Culpepper. Though some want to see Drew Stanton given a shot at this point, seeing what Culpepper has left in the tank may be just as valuable.

What is most interesting about this matchup is the opponent: the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens (6-6) have been quite inconsistent this season, and can't seem to make up their mind if they want to be a pretender or a contender. Let's see if they'll contend against the Lions on Sunday:

Lions Pass Offense (20th) vs. Ravens Pass Defense (15th)

Ravens Opponent	Opponent's Passing YPG	Passing Yards vs. Ravens	Opponent's Season QB Rating	QB Rating vs. Ravens
Chiefs	167.6	177	74.6	116.1
Chargers	266.8	436	105.2	85.0
Browns	143.5	115	56.7	32.7
Patriots	301.6	258	96.4	100.8
Bengals	198.0	271	85.0	84.2
Vikings	260.2	278	108.8	136.9
Broncos	209.1	152	84.7	71.0
Bengals	198.0	224	85.0	91.0
Browns	143.5	99	56.7	23.5
Colts	302.8	299	101.7	85.3
Steelers	258.0	145*	98.4	60.6*
Packers	262.2	263	103.1	87.8

*Dennis Dixon started

At this point I'd normally be dooming the Lions as Culpepper is going to start this week, but lately Stafford has been just as ineffective lately. The Lions offense has scored 23 points in the past two games, and six of those were scored in garbage time.

Meanwhile, the Ravens' pass defense has been pretty tough to figure out. Basically, it looks as if they've held bad passing offenses to bad numbers, and good offenses usually succeed. The Ravens have been surprisingly poor in generating pressure, as they've only managed 22 sacks this year (26th).

The Lions may get another break as Ed Reed could possibly be out this week with a groin injury. Still, the Ravens secondary is pretty solid, as they rank 6th in interceptions (14). Amazingly, nine different Ravens have tallied an interception this season already.

Calvin Johnson seems to finally be hitting his stride. In his past three games, CJ has put up 294 total yards and a touchdown in each game. He'll test the Baltimore secondary, but this matchup is too much of a tossup to award either team points. Draw.

Lions Run Offense (25th) vs. Ravens Run Defense (6th)

Ravens Opponent	Opponent's Rushing YPG	Rushing Yards vs. Ravens	Opponent's Season Avg YPC	YPC vs. Ravens
Chiefs	98.0	29	3.7	1.7
Chargers	88.7	53	3.3	2.5
Browns	98.9	71	3.7	3.1
Patriots	113.0	85	4.0	2.8
Bengals	133.9	142	4.0	4.2
Vikings	123.6	167	4.2	5.4
Broncos	125.6	66	4.4	3.5
Bengals	133.9	146	4.0	3.7
Browns	98.9	86	3.7	3.3
Colts	87.7	76	3.8	3.0
Steelers	116.8	153	4.3	4.0
Packers	117.1	94	4.3	3.5

At the beginning of the season, it seemed like Baltimore's run defense was unstoppable. But, as it turns out, Baltimore had played some of the worst run offenses in the league. Again, there is some inconsistency here for the Ravens. The Bengals seem to have their number, and the Vikings and Steelers have both tasted success against this defense. However, nearly everyone else struggled to reach the century mark.

The Ravens defense is obviously led by the scariest person in the NFL, Ray Lewis. If I had a poster of him up in my room, I would never get hiccups again. Running backs all over the league leave their night lights on when going to sleep in the hope that the Ray Lewis under their bed doesn't attack them at night. If you want to kick an internet addiction set this picture as your background and you'll be too afraid to touch your computer ever again. Actually, don't do that. Visit this site every day.

Kevin Smith, no doubt, has been tossing and turning in bed this week. Smith had a much better game last week after a horrid effort on Thanksgiving. Smith is still averaging only 3.5 a carry and 56.5 rushing yards a game. I'd be very surprised if his numbers were much higher or lower than that for Sunday. Ravens +1.

Ravens Pass Offense (13th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32nd)

Ravens Opponent	Opponent's Passing YPG Allowed	Passing Yards Allowed vs. Ravens	Opponent's Season QB Rating Against	QB Rating Allowed vs. Ravens
Chiefs	250.8	307	94.2	95.8
Chargers	204.4	190	82.9	96.6
Browns	246.1	342	96.9	111.8
Patriots	214.0	264	81.8	78.7
Bengals	211.5	186	73.7	70.1
Vikings	227.2	386	91.2	109.2
Broncos	180.2	175	76.6	109.2
Bengals	211.5	195	73.7	48.3
Browns	246.1	155	96.9	98.1
Colts	224.1	256	76.6	75.4
Steelers	219.6	289	84.0	100.8
Packers	186.3	137	67.7	27.2

Hey look, big surprise! The Ravens are once again inconsistent! Put up 386 yards against a solid Vikings defense, then get stymied by the Browns for 155. It would seem that Joe Flacco has suffered from somewhat of a sophomore slump, but in reality, he's actually having a better year than his rookie year. He's completing three percent more of his passes, he'll likely surpass his yardage total from last year this week, and he has already matched his TD numbers from last year.

Flacco has been protected pretty well. He's only been taken down 26 times (15th). Rookie Michael Oher leads the offensive line. His tackle counterpart, Jared Gaither, is currently hobbled by a foot injury and is questionable.

The Lions will need to test these young linemen with creative blitz schemes. They successfully created some pressure last week, but that was an aberration for this defense. If you want to know how bad the rest of this pass defense is, pick a stat, any stat. Ravens +3.

Ravens Run Offense (17th) vs. Lions Run Defense (19th)

Ravens Opponent	Opponent's Rushing YPG Allowed	Rushing Yards Allowed vs. Ravens	Opponent's Avg YPC Allowed	YPC Allowed vs. Ravens
Chiefs	143.8	198	4.4	4.8
Chargers	117.8	130	4.4	4.1
Browns	154.2	142	4.5	5.1
Patriots	107.9	116	4.3	6.8
Bengals	81.8	82	3.8	4.6
Vikings	84.2	81	4.0	4.5
Broncos	108.7	125	3.9	3.6
Bengals	81.8	55	3.8	3.2
Browns	154.2	128	4.5	3.5
Colts	111.7	98	4.2	3.2
Steelers	77.8	132	3.6	4.6
Packers	87.2	66	3.6	3.1

Finally, something telling! The Ravens have played the top four run defenses five times this year (Bengals twice) and have still managed to put up some pretty impressive numbers. It's a bit surprising that the Ravens are only ranked 17th overall, but they are slightly better at 14th in terms of yards per carry (4.2). They're led by Ray Rice, who is the 10th ranked rusher in the league. You'd think from his size (5'8") that Rice would be a speedster, but actually he's incredibly strong between the tackles. Rice hasn't reached 100 yards since week four, but he splits a lot of his carries with Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain.

Detroit is holding their own in the running game. Though they gave up 110 yards to Cedric Benson last week, they held him to a mere 3.1 a carry. The return of Sammie Lee Hill has helped a lot, but the work of Larry Foote and DeAndre Levy has been invaluable to this defense. The Lions will also likely get Ernie Sims back this week (if they want him). This should be a pretty good matchup. Draw.

Special Teams

Jason Hanson continued to test my faith last week as he clanked one off the crossbar last week from 55.

The Ravens special teams threat comes in rookie returner Lardarius Webb, who ranks 8th in kick return average (among those with 20 returns or more). Webb has returned one for a TD, but is not a huge threat. The Lions have improved their kick coverage as of late. It has gotten to the point where I'm not squeezing the life out of the nearest fluffy animal every time the Lions kick off.

Once again, I don't see any gamebreakers on either side for special teams. Draw.

Overall

Welllllllllllllll. I was not expecting this. When I first saw the Ravens on the schedule, I envisioned something so violent and gory that I thought Quentin Tarantino was directing the nodes in my brain. But, as it turns out, the Ravens came out with a weak +4 advantage after going through the "On Paper" wringer. This doesn't mean that the Lions are going to come out and give the Ravens the game of their life. Baltimore, at times, have played like a team that could have a +8 or +10 advantage, but they just aren't playing consistent enough right now. Still, I think the Lions will keep it fairly close, even though it'll never really feel like they're in the game. 20-10 Ravens.

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On Paper: Lions vs. Bengals

simscity — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 17:37:04 -0000

On Paper is a weekly segment where I take a look at the Lions’ weekly matchup and dissect each unit. At the end of each unit summary, instead of giving a typical “Advantage Lions” or “Advantage Opponent”, I award one of the teams with a point value of 1-5 (or give it a draw). These point values are based both on talent and the influence that this unit matchup will have on the game outcome. A lot of my conclusions are based on the Lions opponent’s previous games.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. I, for one, hung out with some great friends, had a delicious meal, and remember nothing of what happened in the football games that day. But, luckily, the Lions face three playoff contenders in the next three weeks. So let’s get started with opponent #1, the Cincinnati Bengals.

Lions Pass Offense (19th) vs. Bengals Pass Defense (16th)

Bengals Opponent	Opponent’s Passing YPG	Passing Yards vs. Bengals	Opponent’s Season QB Rating	QB Rating vs. Bengals
Broncos	212.8	243	84.1	100.7
Packers	262.8	261	104.7	83.4
Steelers	257.0	276	96.8	95.6
Browns	133.2	269	51.4	68.8
Ravens	236.4	186	89.7	70.1
Texans	283.1	392	97.7	124.2
Bears	229.6	251	74.3	64.1
Ravens	236.4	195	89.7	48.3
Steelers	257.0	174	96.8	51.5
Raiders	130.1	183	53.8	73.5
Browns	133.2	100	51.4	51.3

The Bengals have been all over the place this year with their pass defense. One week, they’re holding the Steelers 8th ranked passing offense to 174 yards, another week they’re allowing the Texans to put up 400 yards on them. This has pretty much been the tale of the Bengals all season. At some points, they look unstoppable, but then they’ll lay eggs against the Raiders and Browns.

Though they rank 10th in sacks, the Bengals pass rush hasn’t been the same since they lost Antwan Odom to injury. They’ve only managed one sack in the past two games.

The Lions, however, have struggled to protect Matthew Stafford lately. Stafford, who is still fighting a left shoulder injury, has been sacked six times in the last three games and hurried on nearly every passing play.

After his heroic performance two weeks ago, Stafford struggled on Thanksgiving Day (so I’m told). He’ll likely have his hands full again this week, but he should get a little more time in the pocket against the Bengals defense. Calvin Johnson does not look like he is 100% healthy out there, but, regardless, he is still a force to be reckoned with. Cincy counters with a secondary full of no-names who are starting to make names for themselves. Former Wolverine Leon Hall is establishing himself as a solid corner, while Johnathan Joseph and Chinedum Ndukwe are young players who continue to improve.

Because of the lack of pressure, the Lions may be able to get things going. But because Cincy has a solid secondary, I expect the Lions to have a very average day through the air. Stafford will put up something around 200 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Draw.

Lions Run Offense (25th) vs. Bengals Run Defense (3rd)

Bengals Opponent	Opponent’s Rushing YPG	Rushing Yards vs. Bengals	Opponent’s Season Avg YPC	YPC vs. Bengals
Broncos	114.7	75	4.2	3.8
Packers	119.2	89	4.3	4.9
Steelers	115.4	102	4.2	3.6
Browns	97.5	146	3.6	4.4
Ravens	117.0	82	4.2	4.6
Texans	90.5	87	3.4	2.8
Bears	85.1	35	4.0	2.9
Ravens	117.0	55	4.2	3.2
Steelers	115.4	80	4.2	4.4
Raiders	104.3	92	4.0	3.8
Browns	97.5	58	3.6	3.2

This is not going to be good.

The Bengals defense has held 10 of their 11 opponents under their season average for rushing yards. Led by one of the best linebacking corps in the NFL, the Bengals are allowing only 3.8 a carry (5th).

Meanwhile, the Lions are averaging a meager 96.2 yards per game, and only seem to be getting worse. The offensive line took a big hit when Stephen Peterman hit the IR a couple weeks ago, and Kevin Smith’s numbers have been free-falling. He is now averaging 3.4 a carry and hasn’t reached 70 yards rushing since week 3.

Expect to cry about how Rey Maualuga should be a Lion at least five times in the first half. Over/Under for the entire game is 17. Bengals +3.

Bengals Pass Offense (21st) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32nd)

Bengals Opponent	Opponent’s Passing YPG Allowed	Passing Yards Allowed vs. Bengals	Opponent’s Season QB Rating Against	QB Rating Allowed vs. Bengals
Broncos	185.0	247	83.0	61.0
Packers	192.5	185	71.8	93.3
Steelers	213.5	183	81.1	76.7
Browns	233.4	230	92.8	73.1
Ravens	211.3	271	79.0	84.2
Texans	214.2	259	83.3	85.3
Bears	214.2	233	91.9	146.7
Ravens	211.3	224	79.0	91.0
Steelers	213.5	178	81.1	76.8
Raiders	215.8	207	86.1	75.4
Browns	233.4	110	92.8	80.2

The Bengals ranking really tells the whole story: this is a very average passing offense. Their numbers are consistently close to the season averages of their opposing defenses. This is a bit surprising given the talent of Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco (no, Microsoft Word, that is how you spell it). However, outside of Ocho, the Bengals don’t really have much of a threat. Their other two receivers, veteran Laveranues Coles and youngster Andre Caldwell, don’t have as many yards combined as Chad does.

But all that really doesn’t matter, because we all know how terrible the Lions pass defense is. For those that don’t know, I’ll restate the fact. For those that do, please put your safety goggles on now. The Lions rank last in the following categories: passing yards allowed, opponent’s QB rating, average yards per catch allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, opponents completion percentage, interceptions.

Ouch. Bengals +3.

Bengals Run Offense (7th) vs. Lions Run Defense (19th)

Bengals Opponent	Opponent’s Rushing YPG Allowed	Rushing Yards Allowed vs. Bengals	Opponent’s Avg YPC Allowed	YPC Allowed vs. Bengals
Broncos	110.0	86	3.9	3.2
Packers	89.1	151	3.8	4.4
Steelers	74.9	100	3.6	5.3
Browns	159.9	154	4.6	5.1
Ravens	97.6	142	3.5	4.2
Texans	120.0	46	4.8	2.7
Bears	125.6	215	4.3	4.8
Ravens	97.6	146	3.5	3.7
Steelers	74.9	61	3.6	2.1
Raiders	161.1	177	4.6	4.1
Browns	159.9	210	4.6	4.7

Hey look, something the Lions aren’t terrible at!

Oh crap, Cincy is ranked 7th overall and have pretty consistently outperformed their opposing defenses this year. And what’s that? The Bengals get their leading rusher Cedric Benson back from injury this week? Wonderful!

Though it’s not like the Bengals need Benson back, as their shiny new toy, Larry Johnson, ran all over the Browns last week, putting up 107 yards on 22 carries.

The Bengals have been on a tear lately, putting up 809 yards in the past five games (161.8 per game). Though the Lions may slow them down a little, I’d expect the Bengals to exceed the Lions average of allowing 112.9 yards per game. I’d put it somewhere around 150 yards for the Bengals on the ground. Bengals +2.

Special Teams

Jason Hanson continued his downward spiral from his “automatic” status to his now “very reliable” status. He’s missed a field goal in three of his past four games, but he remains a top kicker in the league regardless. The Bengals’ Shayne Graham is also fairly reliable, only missing five of his 20 attempts this season.

In terms of kick returning, the Lions seemed to have finally stopped the bleeding with their kick coverage. The Bengals don’t have a threat in Andre Caldwell, who is averaging only 18.7 yards per return. But after his game-losing fumble against Oakland, the Bengals have now turned to rookie Bernard Scott to return kicks who only has 10 returns on the season, but is averaging a much better 32.5 yards per return with one touchdown. However, I don’t see either side making a huge difference on special teams. Draw

Overall

Cincinnati comes out with a +8 advantage, a pretty large number in “On Paper”. The Bengals hold a distinct advantage when it comes to their run and pass offense and their run defense. The Lions can only hope that Stafford comes out with some magic. Given the health of Stafford and Megatron, I don’t see this happening. The Lions don’t have much to play for, as they are one of four teams already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bengals currently hold a commanding two game lead in their division (though it’s really three games because of their 6-0 record in the division). But the Bengals can’t afford to give up a game if they want the 2 seed in the AFC. Look for the Bengals to come out hard and coast through the second half. 27-10 Bengals.

Read articles like this and more at http://www.studyofsports.com/?cat=142

On Paper: Lions vs. Packers

simscity — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:14:16 -0000

Abbreviated version, because it's a short week and it's a holiday....and we're screwed.

Lions Pass Offense (18th) vs. Packers Pass Defense (7th)

Opponent	Opponent's Passing YPG	Passing Yards vs. Packers	Opponent's Season QB Rating	QB Rating vs. Packers
Bears	240.0	266	74.4	43.2
Bengals	207.8	185	87.2	93.3
Rams	185.6	187	71.0	76.7
Vikings	249.1	271	112.3	135.3
Lions	213.3	105	64.6	16.7
Browns	135.4	99	51.1	36.4
Vikings	249.1	244	112.3	128.6
Bucs	169.8	205	61.1	86.1
Cowboys	249.6	251	91.5	78.0
49ers	179.5	227	80.3	88.8

The Packers must have voodoo dolls of Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford. The last time the two teams met, both players were out with injury. This week, when the two meet on Thanksgiving, it looks like they will both be out again.

As we can see, without Stafford and Megatron, the Packers defense completely dominated the Lions. Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton combined for three interceptions and failed to put one point on the board as the Lions got shut out 26-0.

Outside of their previous matchup, the Packers have been a solid against the pass. They have held nearly every quarterback they've faced (that's not named Brett Favre) to a low QB rating (ranked 7th in QB rating against).

However, the Packers, too, have some significant injuries. Cornerback Al Harris and linebacker Aaron Kampman were lost last week for the entire season. Both players contributed heavily to the pass defense, as Harris had two interceptions and five passes defended, while Kampman provided pass rush (3.5 sacks on the season).

However, without their two best offensive players, there's not much hope for this matchup. Charles Woodson is still too good, and Detroit has little depth at the receiver position. I would expect numbers very similar to the previous matchup. Packers +3.

Lions Run Offense (25th) vs. Packers Run Defense (4th)

Opponent	Opponent's Rushing YPG	Rushing Yards vs. Packers	Opponent's Season Avg YPC	YPC vs. Packers
Bears	89.3	86	4.0	2.8
Bengals	127.8	151	4.0	4.4
Rams	119.3	149	4.6	4.5
Vikings	126.2	63	4.2	2.1
Lions	98.5	78	3.9	4.3
Browns	101.4	58	3.7	2.8
Vikings	126.2	111	4.2	3.5
Bucs	100.7	81	4.2	3.2
Cowboys	132.3	61	5.0	4.4
49ers	99.0	69	4.5	6.9

The Packers have held their past seven opponents well below their season rushing yard average. This includes the week six matchup, in which the Packers held Kevin Smith to 61 yards on 15 carries. Though the Lions exceeded their average yards per carry in that game, they didn't run the ball much because they were behind early in that game.

Smith has yet to shake off his early struggles in the season. He has not surpassed 70 rushing yards in a game since week three. He has proven himself as a valuable receiving option, but his running ability is still under question.

Because I expect the Lions to fall behind early again in this game, I don't see this matchup having much of an effect on the game. I'd be surprised to see the Lions attempt more than 20 rushes this game, therefore it is a non-factor. Draw.

Packers Pass Offense (7th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32nd)

Opponent	Opponent's Passing YPG Allowed	Passing Yards Allowed vs. Packers	Opponent's Season QB Rating Against	QB Rating Allowed vs. Packers
Bears	197.8	184	88.0	92.0
Bengals	226.2	261	77.5	83.4
Rams	238.7	269	94.7	126.9
Vikings	231.5	384	89.1	110.6
Lions	275.3	358	110.3	113.7
Browns	247.1	246	93.7	155.4
Vikings	231.5	287	89.1	108.5
Bucs	209.4	266	94.0	57.6
Cowboys	229.3	189	86.4	91.1
49ers	256.1	344	80.3	108.8

If there were any doubters that the Lions have worst pass defense in the league (maybe in history), they are now gone after Brady Quinn and Cleveland's worst-ranked passing offense put up 4 TDs and a 133.1 passer rating against them.

Meanwhile, the Packers have beaten their opponents' defensive averages nine out of ten weeks, in terms of passer rating. Aaron Rodgers is fourth in the league in passer rating (102.6).

There's really no point in analyzing this any further. Rodgers lit up the Lions last time they faced, and the Lions' secondary has actually gotten worse since because of injuries. If you have Aaron Rodgers on your fantasy team, play him and bench everyone else. You'll still win by 100 points. Packers +5.

Packers Run Offense (11th) vs. Lions Run Defense (20th)

Opponent	Opponent's Rushing YPG Allowed	Rushing Yards Allowed vs. Packers	Opponent's Avg YPC Allowed	YPC Allowed vs. Packers
Bears	122.3	76	4.3	3.5
Bengals	84.3	89	3.8	4.9
Rams	146.4	152	4.7	4.1
Vikings	85.5	82	3.9	4.8
Lions	116.2	107	4.5	3.6
Browns	154.9	202	4.6	4.9
Vikings	85.5	90	3.9	4.7
Bucs	168.9	170	4.9	5.3
Cowboys	100.6	105	4.1	3.8
49ers	94.7	158	3.5	4.9

When the two teams met in week six, I talked about how Ryan Grant wasn't getting things done. Since then, he's averaged 95 yards per game, and 4.7 a carry. He's quietly bumped himself up to 9th in the league in rushing yards.

These numbers are slightly inflated because in that time, the Packers have played some weak opponents. As the chart shows, the Packers are actually performing very close to the averages of the opponents, in terms of YPG allowed.

Detroit's run defense is equally mediocre. The biggest issue with their defense is giving up big plays. Detroit has given up the third most runs of over 20 yards (13). Fortunately for Detroit, Grant does not have a run of over 40 yards this season, and only has five of over 20 yards.

I expect Green Bay to run the ball a lot after getting a big lead. Grant will likely get around 30 carries and end up with around 110-120 yards overall. That'll be enough to run out the clock effectively, but it won't be the deciding factor in the game. Packers +1.

Special Teams

Sorry, it's a short holiday week. Special teams gets the axe. Last time I called this matchup a draw, so I'm going to call it a draw again.

Overall

Packers +9. It's probably actually worse than that. Detroit has a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball and in crucial positions. The Packers are a much better team than their 6-4 record suggests. They rank 11th or higher in all facets of the game. Their four losses were to pretty decent teams: Minnesota, Minnesota, Cincinatti......um....Tampa. However, in that Tampa game, the Packers actually dominated the Bucs in yardage. The only reason they lost that game was because of turnovers and a blocked punt.

Stafford was gracious enough on Sunday to provide an incredibly entertaining game. That proved to be enough of a distraction for the media to not bombard us with stories about taking the Lions off Thanksgiving for the billionth year in a row. Unfortunately, after Thursday's game, I'm sure writers all over the world will be beating that drum once again.

My advice, Lions fans: If you love spending time with your family, spend most of Thanksgiving with them and occasionally check in on the game. If you hate your family, spend most of Thanksgiving with them and occasionally check in on the game. And be thankful for last week (I've watched that video ten times now, no exaggeration). 31-6 Packers.

Amazing Video/Audio of Stafford's last two plays. I love NFL films.

simscity — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:32:50 -0000

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-films-anatomy-of-a-play/09000d5d8147b67c/WK-11-Anatomy-Matthew-Stafford-s-Gutsy-Game-winner

Amazing Video/Audio of Stafford's last two plays. I love NFL films.

Hint of Greatness?

simscity — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 23:46:12 -0000

WARNING: THE FOLLOWING CONTAINS AN OVERLOAD OF STAFFORD MAN-LOVE.

Down six, 1:46 left to go. 88 yards of turf to go. No timeouts. Quarterbacks can achieve greatness or fall into oblivion It's the situation that quarterbacks dreams of...

...well, kind of. It wasn't exactly the biggest stage, as two 1-8 teams were fighting for the rights to 31st on most power rankings, but for both teams, the game meant something.

The drive wasn't the prettiest, as Matthew Stafford and the Lions dinked and dunked their way towards midfield eating up more clock than they could've afforded to. It all led to a 2nd and 10 from Cleveland's 32 yard line with :08 left on the clock. The Lions had time to run two plays; perhaps one to get 10-15 yards closer and give themselves one more chance to win.

Stafford took the snap. Looking downfield, he was indecisive. Suddenly he rolled to his left, at that point, it was pretty clear this was going to be the Lions last play of the game. As a defender closed in on him, everyone in Ford Field was screaming for him to get rid of the ball. Instead, Stafford rolled back right, avoiding the sack, set his feet and fired downfield. Stafford had no idea what happened. As soon as the ball left his hand, he was crushed, landing forcefully on his left shoulder. As he grimaced in pain on the turf, I'm sure he could figure out what happened. The crowd groaned as the pass landed in the defender's hand in the endzone as the clock read 0:00.

But then, a little yellow rag fell from the heavens, like a green mushroom landing in Mario's lap as he fell into a pit of doom. Pass interference, Cleveland. First down on the one yard line. The Lions were still alive.

But Stafford wasn't thinking about the next, game-deciding play. He was writhing in pain. Stumbling towards the endzone, grasping his shoulder, Stafford knew he couldn't stay in.

So Daunte Culpepper stepped in. As he went under center, my expectations were lower than with the previous game. I don't know what the play call was, but I'd be surprised if it was a pass. With Shaun Rogers in the middle of that line, they probably would've lost the game. But then, miracle #2 happened. Cleveland, trying to get a read on Detroit's play call, called a timeout.

It was at this point that Stafford turned into an NFL quarterback. Stafford stepped in. Tossing his left arm to the side like a candy wrapper, he went under center. Taking the snap, he thew a laser directly aimed at Brandon Pettigrew's shoulder. For mere mortals, the ball would've gone directly through their body, leaving a carcass with a NFL sized hole. But Pettigrew snagged the ball, likely breaking all the fingers in his hands.* And just like that, the Lions had won and become the leading contender for the Wild Card. Stafford, knowing that the ball was caught from the moment he fired it from his fingers, tried to celebrate. He attempted to raise his arms in elation, but the pain was too much. He didn't even smile. Instead, he looked to the sidelines in pain, screaming "It's out! It's out!" presumably referring to his left arm being out of his socket. He didn't care he had just won the game; he knew the game was won at the beginning of the drive. He was just in utter shock that his perfectly molded body could possibly be tarnished to a point in which he had the arm of a mere peon.

(Alright, back to reality)

With that pass, Stafford became the first rookie in NFL history to throw five TD passes in a game. But the pass had a lot more significance than that. He had successful driven his team to a game-winning drive, he drastically improved the chances of the Lions avoiding the first pick in the draft, and he created a moment in his life that he'll never forget. If Stafford becomes a Pro Bowl quarterback at any point in his career (AND I'M NOT SAYING THAT WILL HAPPEN), people will point to this game as his first defining moment. Despite having the use of only one arm, Stafford managed to throw a game-winning touchdown in his rookie year.

Sure there are reasons to downplay this accomplishment. It wasn't a pretty drive; without a fortunate pass interference call, Stafford may be the goat, with another three-interception game; and most importantly, it was done against Cleveland.

But none of those points matter in a win. Stafford finished 26-43 for 422 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs, in a winning effort. He created a moment in which he and Lions fans alike will not forget in a long time.

We're 2-8, YAY!

*In reality, it was probably the weakest throw Stafford made all day, but I'm riding high right now, so humor me.

On Paper: Lions vs. Browns

simscity — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:47:24 -0000

You can read this article and more like it at http://www.studyofsports.com/?cat=142

This week, the Lions face the Browns in what promises to be the Game of the Week…that everyone ignores and makes fun of. In other words, when you reach the halftime report of the game that you’re watching, it’ll be the game that they just flash the score of rather than show you any of the pathetic highlights. They may even throw in a clever line like, “Detroit leads Cleveland 2-0 in the 2009 Toilet Bowl”, or “Could it be any more depressing in Detroit? They trail 7-0 at the half to Cleveland.” Nothing beats the hilarious antics of Terry Bradshaw. Anyways, now that I’ve dissuaded any non Lions/Browns fan to read on, let’s go! (warning: video contains old white guy rapping).

Lions Pass Offense (21st) vs. Browns Pass Defense (19th)

Opponent	Opponent’s Passing YPG	Passing Yards vs. Browns	Opponent’s Season QB Rating	QB Rating vs. Browns
Vikings	246.7	110	106.9	95.3
Broncos	216.7	263	86.9	83.5
Ravens	230.8	342	90.1	111.8
Bengals	211.9	230	88.1	73.1
Bills	160.6	152	70.4	52.1
Steelers	253.3	417	98.3	113.6
Packers	247.0	246	101.6	155.4
Bears	249.1	225	75.8	66.7
Ravens	230.8	155	90.1	98.1

The Browns pass defense is the definition of mediocre. They’ve held about half of their opponents (5 of 9) under their season average for QB rating. They’ve put up some pretty impressive numbers, like stymieing Jay Cutler to 225 yards and a poor 66.7 passer rating, but have also had some terrible games including a 417 yard disaster against the Steelers.

The Browns defense is also quite mediocre when it comes to pressuring the opposing quarterback. They have 18 sacks on the season which ranks them 19th in the league. The Browns play the 3-4 defense, so a lot of their pressure is generated by linebackers. Linebackers Kamerion Wimbley and David Bowens lead the team with five and 2.5 sacks respectively.

When the Lions last faced a 3-4 defense (against the Packers), they gave up five sacks, 3.5 of which came from linebackers (for the record, Green Bay also has 18 sacks on the season). The Lions may struggle even more now that arguably their best offensive lineman, right guard Stephen Peterman, is very doubtful to play. Last week, Matthew Stafford took a beating, getting pressured on 70% of passing plays. Granted, Minnesota has a much better front seven than Cleveland, but I still fully expect Stafford to be on the run again this week.

Where the matchup leans in the Lions favor is the battle between receivers and secondary. Cleveland boasts no real big names in their secondary. Safety Brodney Pool is probably their most impressive player, as he’s tallied up three interceptions on the season and leads the team in passes defended with 8. But overall, they are not too impressive of a unit. Cleveland ranks 27th in opposing passer rating and dead last in interceptions with four. Calvin Johnson and company have a good chance to be open, if Stafford has the time to throw. In the end, I think both sides will make their plays. Stafford will likely throw a pick or two, but he’ll also perform much like last week, somewhat effective. Draw.

Lions Run Offense (21st) vs. Browns Run Defense (30th)

Opponent	Opponent’s Rushing YPG	Rushing Yards vs. Browns*	Opponent’s Season Avg YPC	YPC vs. Browns*
Vikings	122.4	225	4.2	6.1
Broncos	112.1	186	4.2	5.3
Ravens	118.1	137	4.4	5.3
Bengals	122.3	134	4.0	5.0
Bills	107.7	105	4.1	3.4
Steelers	111.3	129	4.3	4.3
Packers	119.2	179	4.4	4.8
Bears	85.2	138	3.8	4.3
Ravens	118.1	134	4.4	3.7

*QB rushes omitted

Every team other than the Bills outperformed their season averages for rushing yards. This is not a surprise, given that most teams find themselves with a comfortable lead over the Browns and run the ball late. The additional YPC stat is more telling. Still, in seven out of nine games, the Browns’ opponents met or surpassed their season average YPC.

Obviously, this is good news for the Lions. Though the Lions will be forced to go against their former teammate Shaun Rogers, other teams seem to have had no problem with him. Every team has surpassed the century mark, even the 30th ranked rush offense of the Bears. The Lions have been struggling to have a consistent running game, but are still averaging 103 yards per game. Though the Peterman injury may hurt the Lions, they’ve actually had their most success running behind Backus anyways (<---awesome site). I expect the Lions to outperform their average and Kevin Smith to reach the 100 yard mark for the first time since the Lions beat Washington. Lions +2

Browns Pass Offense (32nd) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32nd)

Opponent	Opponent’s Passing YPG Allowed	Passing Yards Allowed vs. Browns	Opponent’s Season QB Rating Against	QB Rating Allowed vs. Browns
Vikings	234.1	205	90.3	74.1
Broncos	186.7	161	83.4	58.7
Ravens	208.9	115	80.0	32.7
Bengals	231.0	269	77.9	68.8
Bills	200.0	23	62.2	15.1
Steelers	208.1	122	77.2	51.0
Packers	189.2	99	76.2	36.4
Bears	195.3	74	87.4	7.1
Ravens	208.9	99	80.0	23.5

Brady Quinn games in italics (pulled in week 3 game vs. Ravens)

My dear lord.

This is about as ugly of a matchup that you can get. Think Stevie Wonder versus Helen Keller in a game of charades. Cleveland is last in points per game (8.7) and Detroit is last in points allowed (29.3). Cleveland is ranked last in QB rating, passing yards per game, completion percentage and passing touchdowns. Yet Detroit ranks last in every single one of those defensive stats (well, 31st in passing TDs allowed, thanks Tennessee).

Quinn is starting his second consecutive game after Derek Anderson was promoted and demoted in the middle of the season. Quinn has yet to put up a passer rating about 75 this year and has one TD to his five interceptions. In Cleveland’s defense, they have little options at the receiver position. This year, they traded away their two best options, Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards. They’re now left with former Lion Mike Furrey and Josh Cribbs. Cribbs is a great playmaker, but he’s much better utilized in special teams and in the running game. More on him later.

I’ll be honest; I have no idea what is going to happen here. The Browns have been sacked 23 times (22nd in the NFL), but they also have one of the best LTs protecting Quinn in Joe Thomas. I have no faith in Detroit’s pass defense, especially considering how many injuries they’re suffering from in the secondary, but Cleveland put up 23 passing yards in a game! They’ve only thrown for 200 passing yards twice this season! Instead of giving one team an advantage, they both get two points taken away. Lions -2, Browns -2. You should both be ashamed of yourselves.

Browns Run Offense (26th) vs. Lions Run Defense (19th)

Opponent	Opponent’s Rushing YPG Allowed	Rushing Yards Allowed vs. Browns*	Opponent’s Avg YPC Allowed	YPC Allowed vs. Browns*
Vikings	94.6	68	4.2	3.8
Broncos	105.6	50	3.8	2.8
Ravens	93.9	62	3.5	3.0
Bengals	83.4	144	3.9	4.6
Bills	173.0	169	5.1	4.2
Steelers	69.3	92	3.4	4.2
Packers	93.1	55	3.5	2.9
Bears	118.4	116	4.2	4.1
Ravens	93.9	85	3.5	3.5

*QB rushes omitted

Though they rank 26th, the Browns run offense may be better than advertised. The Browns have faced five out of the six top run defenses in the league (Baltimore twice). That means out of their nine games, six of them have been against top six run defenses in the league. Jamal Lewis remains a pretty solid back, but he has struggled recently, only gaining 173 yards in his past four games. Again, the stats may be a little misleading, as the Browns have often found themselves behind games early and have had to focus on the passing game to climb back into games (of course, this makes their passing statistics even worse).

Josh Cribbs is also a big factor in Cleveland’s running game. Cribbs is being used in Wildcat formations successfully as he’s clearly the most athletic player on the field for Cleveland. This season, he has accounted for nearly 20% of the Browns’ running game and is averaging 6.6 a carry. This season, the Lions have not faced the Wildcat (have they ever?), so it’ll be interesting to see how they adjust. They may not have to, however, as Cribbs was injured on the last play of the game on Monday night. UPDATE: Cribbs practiced on Thursday, so it’s quite likely that he will play.

The Lions are fairly inconsistent when it comes to stopping the run. Though they rank 19th in yards allowed per game, they’re giving up 4.7 a carry which ranks them 28th. I don’t expect the Browns to run all over Detroit, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lewis break a lot of tackles and bust out a long run or two. Still, I think Detroit has the advantage, especially if Cribbs is out. With Cribbs: Draw; Without Cribbs: Lions +2.

Special Teams

Although Jason Hanson is struggling, I’m not too worried about it. He is not shanking any kicks, so I expect his accuracy to come back to him. Phil Dawson is also reliable. He’s 100% on field goals this year, but has only attempted four.

The advantage here completely relies on Cribbs’ availability. Cribbs burned the Lions in their preseason game this year. He returned the opening kick for a TD (though it was called back) and later returned a punt to the house. Though it was a preseason game, I fully expect that Cribbs has the potential to do the exact same thing. He has returned three kickoffs for more than 40 yards (1 TD) and he has returned a league-high four punts for 20+ yards, one for a TD. Cleveland ranks 1st in punt return average and 8th in kick returns. As always, I have 0 confidence in Detroit’s kick coverage. Detroit’s defensive special teams ranks 31st in kickoff return average and 22nd in punt returns. Given how terrible these teams are, special teams may make the difference. If Cribbs is in, look out. Browns +2. If he’s out, Draw.

Overall

I don’t even know what to say. This game is actually quite enthralling to me. Not because it’s one of the few games left that Detroit has a chance of winning. Not because there’s actual importance to this game, in that the loser has a very good chance at having the #1 draft pick. No, my interest in the game is much more depressing than that. Both these teams are awful right now. There’s a part of me that actually thinks the world might end when the Browns’ pass offense goes against the Lions’ pass defense. But I can’t wait to see what happens. Much like The Beatles’ “A Day In the Life”, most people will turn away from this game on Sunday. But I just have to look. Having read the book?

Anyways, if Cribbs is in, that leaves the Lions with 0 and the Browns with 0. A 0-0 draw. If Cribbs is out, however, the Lions have 2 and the Browns have -2. I think this is going to be a low-scoring game, so a big special teams play from Cribbs could make all the difference. Obviously, this is a must win for Detroit if they ever want to win a football game again. Of course, Cleveland fans are saying the exact same thing. With no confidence at all, I’m picking the Lions to win regardless of Cribbs’ availability. Without Cribbs, 13-7 Lions; With Cribbs 13-10 Lions.

On Paper: Lions vs. Vikings

simscity — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 20:29:22 -0000

For an explanation on my "On Paper" previews, check out my preview for the last time the Vikings faced the Lions.

Lions Pass Offense (21st) vs. Vikings Pass Defense (21st)

Last week I added charts of how other teams have fared against the Lions' upcoming opponent. Because it was met with rave reviews*, I'm going to continue it for the rest of the year.

Opponent	Season Avg Passing Yards	Passing Yards vs. Minnesota	Season QB Rating	QB Rating vs. Minnesota
Browns	121.5	205	42.7	74.1
Lions	189.1	152	55.6	56.5
49ers	184.2	195	75.7	94.6
Packers	255.6	384	103.0	110.6
Rams	171.5	278	69.4	89.6
Ravens	242.1	385	89.9	109.2
Steelers	266.8	175	105.4	87.8
Packers	255.6	287	103.0	108.5

Though the Vikings aren't ranked very high in pass defense, they seem to hold their opponents close to their season averages. The numbers are kind of everywhere, though. From giving up 385 passing yards to the 11th ranked Ravens, to holding the 5th ranked Steelers to only 175 yards. It's hard to predict which defense will show up. But this week features a first in "On Paper". We have a previous matchup to draw conclusions upon. In week two, Minnesota held Detroit to totals very close to their season average. It's now week ten, so the teams are undoubtedly different. Matthew Stafford has more experience under his belt (but whether he's progressed is up for debate) and Jared Allen is hitting his stride.

Let's talk about Allen for a second. When we last left Allen in week two, he had zero sacks and one tackle coming into the Lions game. Against Detroit, he only mustered one sack, but he forced a fumble on it. You can watch it here (please forgive me if you have to sit through one of those horrible Coors Light commercials). Anyways, after the Detroit game, Allen went on a tear. He has 9.5 sacks in the past six games. He leads the league with 10.5 sacks. To be fair, 7.5 of those sacks have come against the Packers. Sacking Aaron Rodgers is kind of like blocking the shot of a five year old in basketball. Sure you send a message, but you're not really proud of it. But Allen's dominance cannot be denied. In the past five seasons Allen has 9.5 more sacks than anyone else in the league (68 total). I'd tally him down for another two this week.

On the Lions side, Stafford is starting to build a rapport with rookie Brandon Pettigrew. Last week, Pettigrew pulled in seven for 70 yards and his first TD of his career. Meanwhile, the Lions got Calvin Johnson back from injury, but not the one they were expecting. Stafford struggled to find Johnson all game, and it appears both may be suffering from their lingering injuries.

In the past five games, Minnesota's opponents have had a QB rating of at least 87 each week. It'll be hard for the Lions to reach that total, as Stafford has only reached that benchmark twice in his short career. Though they only managed 152 yards in their last matchup, I expect the Lions offense to show a little more confidence in their passing game and put up somewhere around 220 yards through the air. But pressure from the impressive Minnesota defensive line is likely to produce around 2-3 turnovers (they forced 3 last time they met). Because of Stafford's inconsistencies and Jared Allen, Minnesota gets the slight advantage, Vikes +1.

* "rave reviews" is blogger code for "no one noticed"

Lions Run Offense (20th) vs. Vikings Run Defense (6th)

Opponent	Season Avg Rusing Yards	Rushing Yards vs. Minnesota
Browns	99.6	89
Lions	104.4	129
49ers	101.4	58
Packers	121.0	82
Rams	116.1	122
Ravens	116.1	81
Steelers	115.2	106
Packers	121.0	90

Perhaps the heart of this team, Minnesota loves to boast the success of their run defense. Indeed, the Kevin and Pat Williams duo is unmatched by anyone in the NFL. But this unit may not be as good as they look. A lot of writers like to flash the stat that the Vikings haven't given up a 100-yard rusher in 31 consecutive games. But as you can see from the chart above, many teams collectively have surpassed the century mark this season.

Looking at the chart, you see that the Lions are actually the team who had the most success against this Minnesota front four. Looking at the rest of the numbers, Minnesota has actually held their opponents below their season averages six out of eight weeks. So they do deserve a lot of credit. However, their overall numbers are slightly inflated because the best rushing offense they've faced is the Packers, who are only ranked 10th.

Detroit, however, is not seeing the success they had in the Minnesota game. Kevin Smith is continuing to struggle against weak competition. Though not all the blame can be put on Smith, his production is well below expectations. Even his 83 yard performance against the Vikings was a little worse than advertised. In that game he only managed 3.46 a carry. However, Smith has been supported by a nice cast of Maurice Morris and Aaron Brown, who both have looked impressive when relieving Smith (4.2 and 4.4 a carry, respectively).

In the end, it's hard to deny Minnesota's superiority. But because of the past matchup, I'm holding out some hope of success. Vikes +1.

Vikings Pass Offense (14th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (31st)

Opponent	Opponent's Season Avg. Passing Yards Allowed	Passing Yards Allowed vs. Minnesota	Opponent's Season QB Rating Against	QB Rating Allowed vs. Minnesota
Browns	238.6	110	91.9	95.3
Lions	263.1	155	107.3	115.3
49ers	241.0	301	84.5	78.3
Packers	185.8	271	75.9	135.3
Rams	238.6	288	91.9	108.0
Ravens	225.8	278	86.7	136.9
Steelers	214.5	334	77.2	76.8
Packers	185.8	244	75.9	128.6

Again, we see signs of a completely erratic team. On some days, Minnesota's Quarterback (who will be referred to as MQ from now on) will goes nutso for 334 yards against the Steelers, another day he'll puts a meager 110 against the Browns. What has stayed consistent, however, is MQ's QB rating. MQ is 2nd in the league, with a rating of 106.0. What's even more impressive is that MQ leads the league in camera time by over 200 billion minutes. The reason for the inconsistencies in MQ's passing yards is that Minnesota can decide whether they want to beat you through the air or the ground. Earlier in the season, they chose ground. In the middle of the season, they chose air. Nowadays, they're a very balanced offense, so you don't know what to expect.

What is different from their week two game is that MQ has built a rapport with his two young receivers, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin. Detroit, on the other hand, has yet to find their starting defensive backs. A combination of injuries and suckiness has decimated this unit into a garbled mess of blown coverages and broken tackles.

Again, the Lions gameplan will be to force MQ into mistakes by putting the blitz on. Last time they brought down MQ three times, but it wasn't enough to force any MQ turnovers (AP did fumble, however). It won't be enough this week either. Vikes +3.

Vikings Run Offense (12th) vs. Lions Run Defense (17th)

Opponent	Season Avg Rusing Yards	Rushing Yards vs. Minnesota
Browns	170.5	225
Lions	109.9	112
49ers	93.2	94
Packers	97.1	63
Rams	134.8	89
Ravens	94.9	167
Steelers	70.4	89
Packers	97.1	111

Adrian Peterson has to be having one of the most underappreciated years in the history of the NFL. With MQ hogging the spotlight, AP has been averaging 98 yards a game and is third in the league with nine rushing TDs. His explosiveness isn't gones as he's ranked second in runs of over 20 yards (8). Though he's been slightly inconsistent from week to week, he's still a major threat. As mentioned before, Minnesota's offensive gameplan changes week to week, so they don't always have to rely on AP.

But for some reason, Detroit always seems to be AP's kryptonite. In his five games against Detroit, he is averaging 4 less yards per game (98.0) than his career average (102) and has had five fumbles (and only 3 TDs). Though that may seem insignificant, given how terrible Detroit has been since AP has been in the league, you would expect huge numbers from him.

The Lions' defensive line is looking healthy again, but one key injury may doom the Lions. Larry Foote sat out of Wednesday and Thursday's practice. Foote has been Detroit's most consistent player on defense, easily leading the team in tackles. Without him in the middle, the Lions may be forced to move rookie DeAndre Levy to the MLB position, and play youngster Jordon Dizon in Levy's place (assuming that Ernie Sims is also sidelined with his injury). Without Foote, the Lions are going to suffer. With him, they have a chance. Vikes +3 or +1.

Special Teams

Detroit's kick coverage has gone from, "oh god" to "can't wait to see Follett out there" back to "oh god". Now that Harvin has exploded onto the special teams scene, I fear the worst. Harvin is ranked second among returners with at least 10 returns (30.7 avg) and has returned two to the promised land (tied for first).

Again, the kickers are a push, even though Jason Hanson booted one off the upright from 34 yards last week.

As a Lions fan, I'm in favor of the squib kick 100% of the time against Minnesota. If they start with the ball before their own 40, I consider it a win. I expect the Lions to lose at least once. Vikes +1.

Overall

Hmph. Well, the Vikings have the advantage in every matchup, totaling for a +7 or +9 advantage, depending on Foote's availability. Not all that surprising in a 7-1 vs. 1-7 matchup. However, not is all lost. Most of the advantages in the matchups are small. The Lions played the Vikings tough last time, regardless of the "On Paper" deficit. They could certainly do so again this week. However, it seems to me like Minnesota is a much better team than they faced in week two. I'm not so sure about the Lions improving since then. In the end, I can't bring myself to pick Minnesota -17, but I'm guessing it'll be awfully close. 33-17 Vikings

On Paper: Lions vs. Seahawks

simscity — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 07:27:20 -0000

For an explanation on my “On Paper” previews, check out my first preview of the year. And please read my stuff at my website, too. I love you guys.

Lions Pass Offense (21st) vs. Seahawks Pass Defense (18th)

This week, I'm going to try something a little different in order to put some statistics in context. Previously, I listed how other teams have fared against the Lions' upcoming opponent. This week, I added how these other teams performed in comparison to their season averages. The purpose of this is to understand the statistics a little better. Letting Shaun Hill burn you for a quarterback rating of 86.1 may seem bad, but when you see that the 49ers are actually averaging an 83.2 ranking for the season, it's not as bad as it seems. Anyways, lets start the show.

Opponent	Season Avg Passing Yards	Passing Yards vs. Seattle	Season QB Rating	QB Rating vs. Seattle
Rams	171.5	191	69.4	63.5
49ers	174.9	144	83.2	86.1
Bears	226.9	247	80.6	126.4
Colts	316.3	353	110.8	107.1
Jaguars	216.1	190	77.9	75.7
Cardinals	263.3	276	81.4	100.8
Cowboys	263.6	256	96.8	108.1

Concluding from these stats, the Lions can expect a very average game, as Seattle seems to hold teams eerily close to their season averages. Looking at the QB rating, however, Seattle has allowed four quarterbacks to reach the century mark. Not surprisingly, the Seahawks rank 28th in opponents' QB rating.

Last week, the Lions pass offense took a big hit. Matthew Stafford completed a season-low 42% of his passes, while amassing just 168 yards through the air. That's all fine, he's a rookie; we knew he'd struggle. What's not okay is that the Lions played the Rams last week, who had the 25th ranked pass defense at the time.

The Lions look to rebound this week, and may have their number one threat back. Calvin Johnson has already practiced twice this week and seems quite likely to return to the field this week. His return will be welcomed after the other receivers seemed to have suffered a bad case of swine flu last week. Did I say swine flu? I meant "Holy Crap, you're actually getting paid seven figures to catch passes for a living?" disease.

In terms of protection, Seattle poses a pretty big threat. They rank 7th in the league in sacks (18), and have veteran Patrick Kerney playing like a stud again. Kerney currently has four sacks and is on pace for 12 for the season. Surprisingly, this pressure has not amounted to a high number of interceptions, as the Seahawks have a league-worst three picks on the season.

Jeff Backus and company will have to rebound if they want to keep Stafford clean on Sunday. Backus may have another new partner to his right, as the left guard position is once again unsettled. Many, myself included, were convinced the spot had been locked up by newcomer Daniel Loper, but last week Loper lost his job to Jon Jansen, whose performance did not seem much better. Loper is now a backup right tackle, and Jansen is now battling with Manny Ramirez for the starting job. At this point, any change will likely be an improvement as the Lions have given up 24 sacks in 7 games (29th).

Like I stated before, I expect a pretty average day from Stafford and the Lions pass offense. This will probably amount to around 200 yards, a touchdown and probably at least one turnover. Because Calvin in back, the Lions get the slight advantage, Lions +1.

Lions Run Offense (20th) vs. Seahawks Run Defense (10th)

Opponent	Season Avg Rusing Yards	Rushing Yards vs. Seattle
Rams	116.1	77
49ers	100.4	256
Bears	93.4	85
Colts	87.3	78
Jaguars	135.6	38
Cardinals	64.9	62
Cowboys	147.6	113

Wowsa. Despite being only ranked 10th overall, the Seattle defense has held six of their seven opponents under their season averages. Especially impressive is their performance against the Jaguars, in which they held Maurice Jones-Drew to 34 yards on 12 carries.

Obviously, the 49ers game sticks out as an outlier, with Seattle giving up 256 yards. In this game, Frank Gore had two rushes for 79 and 80 yards. Take away those two runs and San Francisco is, too, below their season average.

Despite these impressive stats, Seattle is still giving up a very average 4.2 yards per carry (T-16th). They certainly aren't unbeatable.

Detroit had a bit of resurgence in the run game last week against the Rams, totaling 128 yards on 33 carries. Detroit may be without Kevin Smith, who hurt his shoulder last week. However, this is unlikely to change the matchup much, as Maurice Morris stepped in his place last week and picked up an impressive 4.5 yards per carry (though Smith may be missed in the passing game). He’ll have some extra motivation this week going against his former team.

Though Detroit is unlikely to have a breakout game on the ground, there's no reason to bury them. Perhaps the biggest defensive threat to this lineup is rookie Aaron Curry, who ranks second in the team in tackles. Every tackle he makes against the Lions will sting just a little more (as most fans wanted the Lions to draft him), but I still think the Lions to pick up a fair amount of yards. Overall, I expect the Lions to get around 80 yards total on the ground, which won't be enough to give the offense the advantage. Seahawks +1.

Seattle Pass Offense (17th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (27th)

Opponent	Season Avg Passing Yards Allowed	Passing Yards Allowed vs. Seattle	Season QB Rating Allowed	QB Rating Allowed vs. Seattle
Rams	238.6	279	91.9	96.9
49ers	252.1	217	84.2	61.0
Bears	199.4	261*	84.0	74.1*
Colts	180.1	257*	68.0	94.4*
Jaguars	242.4	241	100.8	125.1
Cardinals	233.0	114	82.4	32.5
Cowboys	237.1	249	90.4	92.8

*Seneca Wallace starts

Now we come to my least favorite part of every previews: the Lions pass defense. Detroit's ranking is actually a little inflated after facing St. Louis and their horrible pass offense. Despite holding Marc Bulger to a passer rating of 51.6, the Lions are still ranked last in opposing passer rating.

Anyways, looking at their past opponents, Seattle looks pretty inconsistent. Matt Hasselbeck had a great performance against Jacksonville, but followed it up with an awful showing against Arizona. Seattle has a respectable 85.8 team passer rating (Hasselbecks' is 87.0) which puts them right in the middle of the pack at 15th overall.

Seattle's receiving core is more than solid. Not only do they have solid starters in Nate Burleson and T.J. "just copy and paste my last name" Houshmandzadeh, but their backups include rookie Deon Butler and Deion Branch. Detroit counters with Will James and Phillip Buchanon. Yikes.

Seattle has given up 18 sacks (12th most), while Detroit ranks 21st in sacks. The Lions hope to get Jason Hunter back this week, who can provide some depth to a poor defensive line.

It seems that Seattle thrives against poor pass defenses and struggles against good ones. It's pretty clear which category the Lions fall under. No chance the Lions ever get the advantage in this matchup: Seattle +2.

Seattle Run Offense (29th) vs. Detroit Run Defense (21st)

Opponent	Season Avg Rusing Yards Allowed	Rushing Yards Allowed vs. Seattle
Rams	134.8	167
49ers	84.9	66
Bears	110.6	103
Colts	112.0	49
Jaguars	128.3	143
Cardinals	96.4	14
Cowboys	105.0	79

Not surprisingly, the Seahawks only managed to beat the season averages in their two wins against the Rams and the Jaguars. All of their other performances are quite horrible, including a 14-yard day against the Cardinals' 8th ranked run defense. This week, Seattle dropped their dead weight by releasing aging running back Edgerrin James. Julius Jones continues to be mediocre with his 3.9 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, the Lions almost squeaked out an adequate performance against Steven Jackson last week. They did a pretty good job holding him in check until the fourth quarter, where Jackson picked up 80 of his 149 yards on the day. Detroit's ranking is a little deceiving as they are giving up a ridiculous 4.8 yards per carry (30th). However, Seattle doesn't pose a big enough threat to take the advantage in this matchup. Lions +0.5.

Special Teams

I'm not going to waste a lot of e-ink on this. Seattle doesn't pose a big return threat, as they rank in the bottom half of the league in both kick and punt returns. Detroit follows suit. Neither team is particularly good in return defense. Interestingly, Seattle ranks last in opponents punt return average.

Kickers, too, are a push. Olindo Mare, though old, is still solid. He's 10/12 this year to Jason Hanson's 9/10. Hanson's probably the better kicker, but neither kicker is likely to make or break the game.

Because neither team has a threat, no one gets an advantage. Push

Overall

Seattle comes out with a 1.5 advantage; a surprisingly close total for a game in which the Lions are ten point underdogs. Seattle is truly a mysterious team, and maybe that's why such the high total. Their two wins were quite impressive (28-0 and 41-0 blowouts) but the rest of their season has been ugly. I expect Seattle to win, but I don't see the Lions getting shut nor blown out. A lot of fans are pretty down on the Lions after their loss to the Rams, but the matchup this week is actually fairly favorable. 27-20 Seahawks.