sj10689
Sep 09, 2009 May 29, 2012 132 12552
RIP Gary Edmund Carter (1954 - 2012)
a fan of
New York Mets
RSSUser Blog
Introducing the newest Met: Q-MAN!
Omar Quintanilla is the first Met ever to have a last name that begins with the letter 'Q'.
1 day ago
sj10689
0 comments
2 recs
A WIN METHOD (TM) PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
These guys are playing hardball. Ok, we must all mobilize, everybody... you do realize, this means WAR!
6 days ago
sj10689
11 comments
6 recs
Win Expectancy Calculator
Based on the number of runs scored, I have determined that the formula for win expectancy is the following:
Win expectancy = 1-((1/(RS+4.5))^((RS^1.14)/14.1)) [?]
RS = runs scored
I discovered the coefficients of 1.14 and 14.1 by calculating the cumulative amount of deviation from normal win expectancies (1969-2011), weighted for instances of runs scored, using an extremely vast array of coefficients in MS Excel, effectively using what I like to call a "bowl apparatus". Based on the repetition of the formulas with varying coefficients, 1.14 and 14.1 gave me the lowest cumulative deviation value.
Remarkably, even though this was done using data only from 1969-2011, the correlation is even stronger (using these same coefficients) when data is expanded to 1901-2011, and actually accounted for many of the biggest deviations! This suggests that the formula works just as well, if not better, for games before 1969.
The link above will take you to Baseball-Reference's situation calculator - try this for yourself! The link below has the collected data.
Win Expectancy Calculator
Based on the number of runs scored, I have determined that the formula for win expectancy is the following:
Win expectancy = 1-((1/(RS+4.5))^((RS^1.14)/14.1)) [?]
RS = runs scored
I discovered the coefficients of 1.14 and 14.1 by calculating the cumulative amount of deviation from normal win expectancies (1969-2011), weighted for instances of runs scored, using an extremely vast array of coefficients in MS Excel, effectively using what I like to call a "bowl apparatus". Based on the repetition of the formulas with varying coefficients, 1.14 and 14.1 gave me the lowest cumulative deviation value.
Remarkably, even though this was done using data only from 1969-2011, the correlation is even stronger (using these same coefficients) when data is expanded to 1901-2011, and actually accounted for many of the biggest deviations! This suggests that the formula works just as well, if not better, for games before 1969.
The link above will take you to Baseball-Reference's situation calculator - try this for yourself! The link below has the collected data.
fxcarden's Nightly Rant! - Vol. I, No. 2 (August, 2011)
by sj10689 on May 23, 2012 12:36 PM EDT
on Amazin' Avenue
Vol. I: No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | ??? No. 1
Vol. II: No. 6 | No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | ... | ??? No. 2
fxcarden's Nightly Rant! - Vol. I, No. 2 (August, 2011)
Contents:
15. MIKE PELFERY AND DAVID RIGHT
16. WILL THIS SHIT EVER END
17. RAIN RANT
18. CAN THIS TEAM SCOAR SOME RUNS
18.5. WHAT TEH FUCK
19. WHAT A BUNCH OF SHIT
20. YEAH SURE
21. THIS SEASON CANT END FAST ENOUGH
CT. OK THAT DUZ IT IVE SEEN ENUF WTF FXCARDEN LEAVING IT UP 2 ME TO RANT ABOUT THIS PEACE OF CARP
CTa. NO WORRYS
22. WHAT IS THE WORLD COMING TO
23. METEOR SHOWER
24. BAH - THEY WILL BLOW IT IN THE 9TH
25. OH MY GOD (2)
26. SURE NOW DAVID WRONG HAS A NICE GAME
27. REALLY GUISE THIS IS BULLSHIT
27a. OH YEAH AND I FORGOT ONE THING
28. THE SHITFEST CONTINUES
29. OF ALL THE NIGHTS
30. LET ME GET RIGHT TO IT
31. THIS IS HOW BAD THINGS HAVE GOTTEN
31.5. SANDY OLDERSAN
32. ITS TOO BAD THIS JEROME GUY IS LEAVING US
33. IRENE RANT
34. I CANT BELIEVE I AM MISSING A DOUBLE HEADER
12 comments
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10 recs |
Tweet
fxcarden's Nightly Rant! - Vol. I, No. 1 (July, 2011)
by sj10689 on May 22, 2012 5:00 PM EDT
on Amazin' Avenue
Vol. I: No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | ??? No. 1
Vol. II: No. 6 | No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | ... | ??? No. 2
fxcarden's Nightly Rant! - Vol. I, No. 1 (July, 2011)
Contents:
1. TRAID TEH COAR !!!
1a. let me amend my rant
2. we're fucked.
3. THIS TEAM SUCKS
4. EXACTLY MY POINT
5. TRAID EVERYBODY
6. FUCKING PELFREY
7. FUCK TEH METS
8. THIS IS RIDICULOUS
9. ENOUGH ALREADY
10. WELL HEAR WE GO AGAIN WITH THE SHIT
11. SERIUSLY FUCK THE METS
12. MY GOD
JR. TRAID EVRYON!E
13. I CANT TAKE THIS ANYMOAR
13.5. Practice rant.....
14. OH MY GOD (1)
13 comments
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15 recs |
Tweet
At 5:30 PM EDT today Starting today at 5:00 PM EDT, witness one of the greatest renderings of visual sound effects ever!
UPDATE 1: My browser has crashed several times in the process from all the rants (FUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!) - as a result, there will instead be 4 or 5 separate installments of fxcarden's Nightly Rants! from 2011, with a similar pattern for the 2012 rants. Take my word for it, when I say that it's for the best. Here's the revised schedule:
Volume 1: 2011
No. 1: Today at 5:00 PM EDT
No. 2: Tomorrow
No. 3: Thursday
No. 4 and No. 5 (?) TBD
UPDATE 2: Vol. I, No. 1 (July, 2011) is now up!
9 days ago
sj10689
3 comments
4 recs
Major League Baseball umpire suspended
It's a start, and it's about time.
Official 2013 MLB All-Star Game announcement
Mayor Bloomberg Makes Announcement w/ MLB Commissioner Bud Selig & NY Mets CEO Fred Wilpon
In light of this, I have decided to launch an All-Star Game logo contest. Click here for details.
Mayor Bloomberg Makes Announcement w/ MLB Commissioner Bud Selig & NY Mets CEO Fred Wilpon
Video contents:
00:00 Intro
00:46 Mayor Bloomberg speaks
• 01:38 Mayor Bloomberg greets Mr. Met, gives high five
• 02:06 Mayor Bloomberg addresses Bud Selig and Joe Torre
03:02 Official announcement begins; Bud Selig speaks
• 03:18 The confirmation
• 04:18 2013 MLB All-Star Game date announced
04:34 Mayor Bloomberg speaks
05:25 Fred Wilpon speaks
06:23 Mayor Bloomberg speaks
• 08:10 Major League economic stats of the All-Star Game
08:50 The Wilpons present a gift; photo-op
09:46 Mayor Bloomberg makes the announcement (en Español)
10:00 Q & A session
• 10:03 Question 1
• 10:50 Question 2
• 11:41 Question 3
• 12:18 Question 4
• 13:11 The question over Fred Wilpon's cane
• 13:18 Question 5
• 13:51 Question 6
• 14:43 Spanish question
• 14:53 Question 7
• 15:28 Question 8
• 16:19 Question 9
18:04 Major League economic stats of the All-Star Game (en Español)
18:35 Conclusion
• 18:59 Fred Wilpon exits
• 19:02 Bud Selig exits
• 19:17 Jeff Wilpon exits
• 19:51 Mr. Met exits
• 20:46 Joe Torre gets a pat on the back, exits
2013 ALL-STAR GAME(TM) LOGO CONTEST
Major League Baseball has formally announced that Citi Field will be the site of the 2013 All-Star Game. (see video) In light of this, I have decided to launch an All-Star Game logo contest. To help get you started, I provided all of you with a sample All-Star Game logo. (click here to embiggen) If you wish to participate, please enter your submission with an image below, in the comments section. The contest ends on May 31st. I will choose a select number of finalists, and the community will vote on which of those logos is the best one.
Can you create a better logo than the sample logo provided? Then, give it a shot. Good luck to all participants!
15 days ago
sj10689
19 comments
3 recs
LET'S GO METS GIF
Click here to embiggen/view.
By the way, I need some help here - is there any way to make this gif go faster? The "Let's" and "Go" sequences are only supposed to be 500 milliseconds each, and "Mets" a full second. Instead, each sequence is at least a full 1000 milliseconds (1 second) longer than it should be.
17 days ago
sj10689
4 comments
6 recs
PhiLOLdelphia PhiLOLies epic blunder (2012.05.08)
Note: This video is now public.
21 days ago
sj10689
5 comments
11 recs
PhiLOLdelphia PhiLOLies epic blunder (2012.05.08) (GIF version)
Click here to see the GIF image (To save the image, right click the link, select "Save Link As...", and choose a save location)
21 days ago
sj10689
4 comments
6 recs
Create your own range map!
Ever wanted to create your own range map, but wanted to use a map drawn to scale and easy to modify? Well, now you can do all that! This template map is in 16-color format (though any range of colors can be applied to it), and it is amazingly accurate, drawn to a scale of about 2.55 pixels per foot. (Or a 1:338.4 scale, using the 72 ppi standard)
You can give it a try - click here to load the template image
Click here to see the previous range maps
An MLB First, after 200,439 games (with documented evidence)
Today's Cubs-Reds game is 1st in @MLB history in which opposing starters - Dempster (35) and Bailey (26) - are celebrating birthdays - Elias— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) May 3, 2012
Odds: 1 in 133,402
28 days ago
sj10689
10 comments
1 recs
Jered Weaver tosses a no-hitter vs. Minnesota Twins
The second no-hitter of the 2012 season; the first, of course, being Philip Humber's perfect game.
Stat line: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K, 121 pitches (77 strikes), 5 GO, 14 FO, 0.161 WPA, 0.25 aLI
Game Score: 95
29 days ago
sj10689
14 comments
9 recs
Gamethread Experience Poll*
by sj10689 on May 1, 2012 2:15 AM EDT
on Amazin' Avenue
* This should be a FanShot**
** But FanShots don't have polls!!!
For some of us, the semi-daily gamethread is a ritual; a ritual that's just as much a part of nature as watching the Mets games themselves. Others may just watch the games and visit them casually. And for the unfortunate few, the gamethread is a lifeline to what's going on, beyond the mere movements of simulated players and animations on MLB.com Gameday. (And for some of you, a reprieve/retreat from the other 28 broadcast teams.) For every user, the gamethread experience is undoubtedly different and unique; but one thing that's not unique is the enjoyment of the various rants, (obscure) movie references, Dickeyisms, BABIP fairy fantasies (you know you can't hide them from yourselves!), LGM!, and the occasional troll (to make things interesting).
With that said, I ask you this:
Brooklyn Nets brand animated GIF
Click on the links below to see both versions (links open in a new window):
Brooklyn Nets brand animated GIF
Animated GIF with "Hello Brooklyn" intro (lower quality)
This my first ever post here, BTW
about 1 month ago
sj10689
5 comments
6 recs
Harper to debut for Nats on Saturday in LA
How convenient... just within earshot of Hollywood. Something tells me that he won't be able to avoid the spotlight.
The Great Northwest Perfect Game Conspiracy?
Over at Lookout Landing (the Mariners blog), there has been some suspicion that the umpire may have called that last pitch a strike when, in fact, it may have been a ball, on the basis of the fact that the batter may have merely check swung at the ball and held back just in time. There is an understandable fear of repeating history in taking away the perfect game, a la Jim Joyce (in the Armando Galarraga controversy), and I'm pretty sure Brian Runge (the Home Plate umpire) understood that. Here's an excerpt from Jeff Sullivan, writing over at the Mariners blog:
"So I'm a little disappointed with Ryan. And I wish he wouldn't have even tried to check his swing at the pitch in the first place. Runge wasn't going to ring him up on an outside slider near the dirt. But I get why Ryan did what he did. When you play you're in the moment, and Ryan didn't think he went around. I didn't think he went around. In live action, it sure as hell looked like Ryan held up. Removed completely from context, that would look like a checked swing. I promise I'm not biased. I mean, I'm not free of bias, but if Ryan did swing, I wouldn't be afraid to admit it. Again, I don't mind that the Mariners got perfect game'd...
Philip Humber's perfect game - one of very few perfect games that's ever been thrown - ended with a controversial swinging strikeout. If you paid attention to the TV, you wouldn't know it was controversial in the least, because nobody so much as acknowledged the possibility that Ryan might not have gone around. Nobody wanted to talk about that. They only wanted to talk about the perfect game. FOX never aired a side-view replay of Ryan's swing, and you know they have the technology to air side-view replays. You see side-view replays all the time. Usually on close check-swings."
While the fear of repeating history on the part of the umpire provides a rational basis for inquiry with respect to possible ulterior motives on a seemingly questionable call, let's study the evidence:
Animated gif, showing the sequence (from above)
Evidence | Evidence, with proof
***
The evidence has spoken; the umpire got it right. The perfect game was not just a mere handout, after all. Humber deserved it. (Look closely at the shadow created by the bat, and see its position over the plate as the ball passes)
P.S. I’m aware that the argument about the azimuth (angle of sun casting shadow, based on time of day) might cast a smidgeon of doubt, but still, the evidence shows the bat was clearly over and beyond the plate as the ball passed.
So there you have it. The perfect game... was legit.
VERDICT: Not Guilty
about 1 month ago
sj10689
14 comments
1 recs
Career BABIP Distribution (1969 - present) (as of 4/17/2012)*
* Minimum 1500 PA
Data source: FanGraphs.com
Career BABIP Distribution (1969 - present) (as of 4/17/2012)*
* Minimum 1500 PA
Data source: FanGraphs.com
(Click here to embiggen all that data)
In addition, I have also posted this FanShot at Beyond The Box Score
about 1 month ago
sj10689
21 comments
3 recs
You can't fix "Stupid"
An opening day game at 7:10 PM right before another game (as part of a 3-game series) 955 miles away at 4:10 PM the very next day makes a whole lot of sense.
On MLB Network's sabermetric-themed show Clubhouse Confidential (@CHConfidential), host Paul Severino talks about the changes to Citi Field's dimensions and the potential impact these changes could have on the New York Mets, citing recent historical examples from similar changes to other ballparks, and the impact of those changes on the respective teams that play there. Guest Bill Petti (our very own Bill Petti) discusses the potential impact of the changes to Citi Field's dimensions in-depth, and gives insightful analysis on how these changes could benefit the oft-maligned New York Mets, whose bad luck is often attributed to the unforgiving intricacies of the outfield at Citi Field.
Stats-Results Correlation Primer
Stats-Results Correlation Primer: A venture into the theoretical physics of baseball
There have been many times, when people (like us) have wondered at some point about the bearing and the weight of stats on the end result of a team's success, be it attributed to wins or to winning champ(t)ionships. Well now, I have decided to take on an enormous undertaking, which could take weeks to complete - a Stats-Results Correlation Primer.
Basically what this is, is a project that will measure, on a scale of -1.00 to +1.00, the (theoretical) effect that a stat has on the results of a team, through every season. (-1.00 signifies absolute inverse effect, +1.00 signifies absolute positive effect, and 0.00 signifies virtually no effect whatsoever.) To filter out statistical bias, I will separate the data on a year-to-year basis, and compile them into stats reflecting time periods based on several factors, such as the number of teams or the playoff configuration. Taking into account that correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, it's (virtually) impossible for a -1.00 or +1.00 result to occur.
For example, we know pretty much (by reasonable assumption) that teams that hit more HRs or have a lower overall ERA* tend to be more likely to win their respective divisions or win the World Series. But how much bearing does each stat have on a team's chances of achieving that? That's what this project is all about. But to be sure to account for yearly trends, this will be done on a year-to-year basis, to enclose data and prevent the occurrence of failing to take account of certain anomalies respective of their seasons. (In other words, statistical relativity.) For instance: a team as a whole could hit 65 HRs in 1915, which would label them as a "power-hitting team". (The highest team total that year for HRs was 58.) Nowadays, that would be considered horribly pathetic. (You would need 200+ HRs to achieve that same recognition today). It's all about relativity, when filtering out statistical bias on a year-to-year and era-to-era basis.
* I will use ERA more predominantly than sabermetric stats, since ERA is strictly results-based, which is what ultimately factors in to the final results. Baseball is largely about luck, and this project will reflect that too. Good process does not necessarily guarantee good results.
With that said, let me know what your take on this is. I believe that this could have significant ramifications going forward.
LOSERS CLASSIC FALL 2011 (TM)
Because, in the consolation round, there will be much consoling to be done, indeed!
Better luck next year, douchebags!
8 months ago
sj10689
9 comments
19 recs
8 months ago
sj10689
14 comments
3 recs
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