sjkqw
Aug 02, 2009 Jan 13, 2012 2 622
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My top 30 NYY prospects
by sjkqw on Jul 20, 2010 7:28 PM EDT
on Minor League Ball
My Top 30 Yankees Prospect List
Hey everyone, I saw a top 30 Cubs prospects list and a top 30 Red Sox prospect list. I wanted to do something like this for a heavily on the rise Yankees system (they had no where to go but up). When I see two high payroll teams out there, I needed to go ahead and put my high payroll rival out there.
I tried to substitute the level for team city (i.e. A+ for Tampa, AA for Trenton) for those who may not be familiar with the team. Sorry if I left some in there by habit. Enjoy!
1. Jesus Montero, C AAA. Montero is clearly a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. Probably top 5 depending on who you ask. I am going to make my case here why I think he should be #1 or 2. Montero split the 2009 season between A+ and AA about evenly. He only had 167 AA at bats before having a season ending injury. In 2010, he started in AAA. A .267/.341/.437 look awful, but take a look at his splits. (I didn’t include that he is hitting .412 in his last 10 games)
AVG BB SO OBP SLG OPS
April .247 7 13 .313 .384 .696
May .214 11 16 .302 .333 .635
June .283 6 21 .324 .505 .829
July .364 11 7 .482 .568 1.050
2) Austin Romine, C AA. Last year’s FSL POY was off to a really hot start this year, but has had the opposite problem of Montero. .354/.425/.492 April wasn’t going to last the whole season. May was’t bad at .305/.353/.505, in fact you see a damatic power increase with 4 of his 6 homeruns coming in May. June and July were just dreadful. The only positive I can point in either month is that in June he had a high walk rate as you see in .227/.349/.318. Power and average both were down a lot. For a guy who has walked minimally in his career, seeing 33 in 327 PA, is actually a big improvement. Strikeout rate is nearly double the walk rate though so he needs to fix that. Hopefully he can turn around in the last third of the season and return to being a .300/.400/.500 guy or at least close to that. If he focuses on drawing walks, I won’t even care if it is .300/.400/.450, but he needs a quick turnaround. His defense reports are often too positive(like Montero’s are too negative). Yes, his defense is good, but let’s not overstate everything.
3. Slade Heathcott, CF A. Some people have been impressed at others have been disappointed. I don’t see how you could be impressed with him, but I am not down on last year’s first round pick. Slade has the speed, but isn’t quite able to run the bases perfectly just yet (8 of 12 SB, 1 3B, 1 ITP-HR). Plate Discipline isn’t ready yet either with his 36 Ks and 14 BBs in 133 at bats. Just 7 XBHs shows a major lack of power. Slade has a lot to work on, but he has a long time to still perfect it just having two months under his belt in low A.
4. Manny Banuelos, LHP A+. Due to an emergency appendectomy, he has just 4 non-Rehab starts on the year, and he is getting progressively further into games. 23 strikeouts in just 18.1 IP is fabulous. His only two problems are that he has 5 walks, and groundouts are only slightly higher than flyouts. I am sure some more seasoning will help him out. This is all too small a smaple size to say anything for sure, but he has looked mightily magnificent. His stuff isn’t the greatest, but his command will surely help him get by. Banuelos could easily become number 3 soon especially if Heathcott doesn’t display much progress.
5. Andrew Brackman, RHP AA. What non-Yankee fan predicted this jump before the year? In his last start with Trenton, he touched 97 twice and 99 once while sitting at 94-96 comfortably. He is averaging just under 1 K/IP. He has not allowed many flyballs at all (especially in A+). The only problem with him is that his walk rate more than doubled in Trenton (it had been 9 BB in 60 IP for Tampa). I beg you not to look at ERA when judging him because most of the runs are as a result of him staying in the game too long. Seeing Brackman’s SSS splits, if he keeps pitching at home, there is not reason we shouldn’t see him move up further.
6. David Phelps, RHP AAA. Phelps has shocked fans for the second season in a row, putting up numbers that the organization must be pleasantly surprised by. Phelps may not be a big name for some prospect people, but in just three seasons (including his short league season) he has already reached AAA. In 2009, Phelps dominated the Sally league where he was among the league leaders in wins. Strikeouts numbers didn’t really stand out though. He made 7 starts at the end of the year for the A+ league. Somehow, he beat out Hector Noesi for a spot in the Opening Day AA rotation. He didn’t disappoint as he pitched better than ever. 84 Ks, 23 BBs in 88 IP. AAA was even better though despite just 3 starts. He has 19 Ks and ZERO walks in 17.2 IP while posting a 2.78 GO/AO. He has certainly been more hittable as his BAA is nearly 100 points higher in AAA, but he has been undoubtedly impressive. Phelps uses a deep repertoire, which is necessary due to a 92-95 fastball. Experts see him as a reliever, but I think he has what it takes to start.
7. Graham Stoneburner, RHP A+ . After blowing away Class A competition, Stoneburner was promoted to the FSL after just 7 starts. The components are slightly better at the higher level so I’ll just be talking about his combined stats in 18 starts. He has pitched 99.1 innings where he has 102 strikeouts and 24 walks (which is higher than it should be. He had two awful games early in A+ with 5 and 3 walks). Stoneburner doesn’t give up homeruns as he displays with a pretty groundball rate. I used to project him as a closer, but I could now see him starting with three very good pitches.
8. Jose A. Ramirez, A RHP. Ramirez caught my eye a few times last season, but I ignored my own senses until I saw him on John’s top 20 list. With 75 Ks and 26 BBs in 85 IP and a low groundout rate, I think the comparisons the Arodys Vizcaino fall quite short. One positive thing I have to say though is that he hasn’t allowed a homerun all season.
9. David Adams, 2B AA. Adams opened a lot of eyes early and often this season. Through the first two months, he hit .309/.393/.507 before going down with his ankle injury, which made him even more well known. He almost solely blocked a trade that would have sent Cliff Lee to the Yankees. Adams provides unthinkable power for a 2B. If he sticks with the Yankees, I could certainly see him as the top #8/9 hitter in the league (and he is only batting that low because the rest of the lineup is so good or being paid too much way past their glory days). Cano is blocking him, but Adams is a great prospect and a personal favorite. If he isn’t with this organization as an MLer, then he could be a solid middle of the order bat. Outside of his power and average, he provides good speed on bases, above average plate discipline, and average defense.
10. Corban Joseph, 2B A+. Joseph is another excellent 2B in the system who differs a lot from Adams. He provides a much stronger arm which helps his defense out a lot to the point that he may be able to play 3B (not from an offensive standpoint). He is just 4 of 11 on SB attempts, but his average speed will help him, when he learns stealing won’t be part of his game. His power is a tick down from Adams, but it certainly wouldn’t qualify as bad. His plate discipline may also be a tick worse while his batting contact may be considered a tick higher. .313/.386/.457 is a pretty good line for this possible top 10 2B in the minors.
11. Dellin Betances, RHP A+. Control and injuries turn a lot of people off with him including me. Before his last two poor starts, he had just 2 ER in 34 IP with 6 BB. Now his 47 Ks in 40 IP are putting him back on a lot of people’s radar. Larger sample size is going to be necessary, but he is another injury follow.
12. Ivan Nova, RHP AAA. It took Nova awhile to get started, but once he was returned from the Padres (Rule 5 pick), he rolled over the competition. Nova is known as a groundball pitcher. Control has really been a problem with his 40 BBs in 103 IP. He also has just 78 Ks. Despite a 6.20 ERA in May, he has pitched so well outside of this month that his overall ERA is 3.21 (FIP:3.85) He has 3 scoreless ML innings this year, and I have no doubt he could be a #5 starter for a contender with an outside shot at #4.
13. Gary Sanchez, C R. I hate to rank guys that are this far away, but Sanchez is something special. His .378/.455/.622 line in one of the top pitcher’s leagues in all of the minors is unbelievable. I am not going to say anything about his defense until I see it, but reports sound good. I think he is a Romine/Montero combination.
14. Hector Noesi, RHP AA. Between Tampa and Trenton, Noesi had 108 Ks in 105 IP with just 17 BBs. I think most of this is pitching over his head, but he still should be a solid reliever or back end starter. Noesi has too many flyballs, (which is why he is behind Nova. I think I would be getting that question if I didn’t say that). He had given up 8 homeruns on the year with a .79 GO/AO that is actually .64 at the higher level. Strikeouts are down, walks and homeruns are up at the higher level so don’t let the numbers fool you too much yet.
15. Adam Warren, RHP AA. Warren is in just his 1st full professional season, and he pitched in AA for the first time over the weekend. I will focus on just his A+ stats since it is difficult to get anything from one start. If Nova gets the reputation for a groundball pitcher, then Warren is the one who is an actual groundball pitcher. His 2.18 GO/AO along with just 2 HRs in 81 IP this season really explain a lot. 17 BBs gives him less than 2 per inning. He also has just 67 strikeouts, which is a big reason why his ceiling is a #3, but I project him to be an average #4 starter. I really thought I liked this guy, but I have seen others rank him higher than me. I couldn’t possibly put him higher than #11, but if he pitches well in Trenton the rest of the season, he could see that spot on my list. He has touched 96, but I think he really is a low 90s guy.
16. Brandon Laird, 3B AA. Laird had a really hot May that put him on maps, but this really cold July has quieted some of that. Laird has below average speed and awful plate discipline. His 29 walks don’t do his 21% strikeout rate any justice. Laird is strictly a power guy, and I think you will see his batting average take a huge dip as he tries to get XBH. 40% of his hits are XBH. As far as defense, I think we will see a move to 1B, but he has been trying out OF to see if he can cut it as a UTL.
17. Zach McAllister, RHP AAA. I don’t know why anyone was ever so excited about him. He was bound to run into a wall with a ceiling as low as his. His BAA is .298, 2.1 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, .76 GO/AO. I don’t like the way this is going to end. Maybe he will cut it in the pen, but I don’t think so.
18. JR Murphy, C A. Even for a 19 year old in the SAL, he really hasn’t performed too well. His triple slash line is .249/.288/.340 so he definitely needs to work on a lot. His home road splits are pretty noticable. .290/.328/.402 at home makes it look a lot better for a 19 year old, but he still needs to work on it.. On the road, it is .206/.245/.275. Funny thing is this team doesn’t have any offensive standouts this year so the home ballpark can’t help THAT much. I’m banking on some improvement before next year. 3:1 K:BB needs to be improved too. I would have preferred to see him in A-.
19. Mark Melancon, RP (RH) AAA. He’s going through quite the struggle in AAA right now after being sent down AGAIN. Despite being bad recently, he still has more than 1K/IP and a 2.54 GO/AO. I just don’t know how long it will take before he is ready for the majors.
20. DJ Mitchell, RHP AA. I read something that called him marginal. I am not much of a fan of him, but he does have a nice sinker. He is also new to pitching which explains why this year is down. Last year he was just performing over his head (at levels he could easily dominate). 4.5 BB/9 and about 6 K/9 do not match up well. The sinker really does indue the groundballs as displayed by his 1.96 GO/AO.
21. Bryan Mitchell, RHP R. 19 IP, 15 K, 13 BB, 14 ER, 1.35 GO/AO. Those are the numbers tell me what you think. It’s pretty awful, but he awfully raw.The strikeouts are still impressing me even though it isn’t quite as high as it should be. Mitchell is a project ---an $800,000 project that will take a lot of time. I am a little surprised with the control issues though. He’s been getting better, and his relief appearance was pretty awesome.
22. Brad Suttle, 3B A+. Suttle has what it takes to be a masher, but his shoulder injury has completely thrown him off. His .255/.316/.361 looks pretty bad, but it finally looks like he is recovering. He is .282/.346/.465 in July, easily his best month of the season. He has 3 of his 4 HRs in July. He is not known for his speed, but he is 7 for 7 on SB this season. Defense looks pretty good to me.
23. Eduardo Nunez, SS AAA. Nunez has quitely hit .305/.360/.409 this season. The way he has solidly played may force me wot switch him with Brandon Laird. I really expect Nunez to be a UTL player with growing versatility. The Yankees expect a lot more, but they are horribly mistaken. 18 for 21 on SBs show his ability to pinch run as well. Plate discipline and power really hurt him.
24. George Kontos, RHP AA (AAA). This is probably a very unpopular pick for others, but Kontos is a really good pitcher. He put up great numbers before tearing a ligament and needing surgery last year. He began rehabbing recently in A+, but he is now in AA. He is not really a strikeout pitcher (13 in 20 IP) and I am impressed with his control (just 5 BBs so far) coming back from injury. AA will take a little while to get used to after he breezed by A+. AAA won’t be too far away. I see Kontos as a number 4 starter on a semi-competitive team. Many see him as a reliever, but I am not ready to give up just yet. The Yankees just overworked him his rookie season and now he is back and better than ever.
25. Abe Almonte, CF A+. He appeared like he might break the bad luck this season when he got off to an early start, but he may have broken something else with an undisclosed injury at the end of April. Almonte provides good speed and defense while producing a solid average with average power. Plate discipline is killing him like it is eating so many other Yankees. He is going to start falling if I don’t see him back on the field soon.
26. Tyler Austin C/RF R. Austin’s ceiling is too high to ignore. The 13th round pick in 2010 is currently 0-2 in the GCL with a .500 OBP. It is a little early to call him a bust, but I am hoping he picks up his first career hit soon. The Yankees are transitioning him to RF due to the catching surplus.
27. Kelvin de Leon, RF, SS-A. De Leon fell a long way. I don’t think his contact skills are going to be good enough for him to keep up. I haven’t gotten a good read on his defense yet. His plate discipline is horrible (29.4% K rate). It is seriously either a XBH or K with him. It drives me crazy.
28. Jairo Heredia, RHP A. The once prominent pitcher is struggling to come back from a year long injury. He was demoted from A+ to A after performing so badly. He is doing significantly better in A ball, but not quite good enough. 13 BBs and 41 Ks in 47 IP. His FIP is extremely low in comparison to his ERA (3.19 vs. 4.40). His ERA in Tampa was close to 7, but he was getting a lot groundballs with ugly components. The components are not that bad in Class A, but he is very hittable. He is going to have to move up to A+ at some point next year even if it is not at the start of the year. Once considered very young and successful, he is now nearly 21 and somewhat unsuccessful.
29. Gavin Brooks, LHP A-. A Short Season A relief pitching standout last year was transitioned to the starting rotation. In the last week of EST, he sustained an injury that put him out for the year. Brooks is considered a tremendous talent, but I see his future is likely in the pen even as a LOOGY if he doesn’t fare well against righties in the upper levels.
30. Caleb Cotham, RHP A, A Poor man’s Joba at one point (though that won’t get you far seeing how Joba is doing today), I have heard his fastball is extremely good, but I don’t see a lot else to praise. He has been injured since being signed so he hasn’t pitched this year. He has been anticipating joining Class A’s rotation for some time, but he is still on the DL.
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