Ouch. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=3985

Sophomore OF Brian Goodwin has been suspended for the entire spring semester for "violating university policy," and will therefore miss the entire college baseball season.  No idea what he did, but it sounds like his malfeasance wasn't baseball related.  If forced to speculate, I'd say it sounds like serious academic misconduct.  But again, that's pure speculation.

For those who don't follow college baseball, Goodwin had a strong freshman debut at UNC and impressed scouts a whole bunch this past summer in the Cape Cod League.  Along with ASU's Deven Marrero, Stanford's Kenny Diekroger, and St. John's Jeremy Baltz, Goodwin was one of a handful of college bats in the discussion as potential high first-rounders in the 2012 draft. 

This will be a major blow to UNC's chances this year, and a year of missed development time will likely be a pretty big blow to Goodwin's draft status as well.

It was nice while it lasted right?  What am I talking about?  The ability of the New York Yankees to be competitive with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox in what is known as the AL BEast division.  This off-season the Yankees will be saying good-bye to several players that have made them the contenders that they were for the past few seasons.  The likes of Javier Vazquez, Lance Berkman, likely Andy Pettite, and one of A.J. Burnett or Kerry Wood will no longer be in Yankees uniform for the 2011 season.  These will create major holes on the team and it is quite possible that the shoes of the departed may never be filled.  Sorry Yankees fans, the future does not look good.

If you think the Yankees will be active on the free agent market, forget it.  Cliff Lee has already expressed a desire to return to the Rangers, Carl Crawford to the Angels is rumored to be all but a done deal, and the Yankees have to worry about signing two living NYC legends in Jeter and Rivera who are likely too old to warrant the contract extensions they will inevitably ink to help the team avoid a PR nightmare.  Curtis Granderson (due a big raise) is a candidate to be traded, but who will replace his bat at the top and/or bottom of the lineup?  Will the replacement be Derek Jeter?  Who is the real Derek Jeter?  After his horrible 2010 season, it really is difficult to expect a rebound to his 2009 form.  I’m sure the Yankees fans will be hoping and praying though!  Regardless of who bats at the top of the order, the Yankees have a vacant DH and two starting pitching positions to fill.  Jesus Montero is expected to take over one of the spots.  Despite his sub-par 2010 season, I still think he has a bright future.  Will he replace what Lance Berkman and the hodgepodge of regulars who manned DH in ‘10 brought to the lineup?  I don’t think so.  So who takes over the remaining SP spots? 

The Yankees infield will have a new, older look to it.  Alex Rodriguez will be 35.  Derek Jeter will be 37.  Mark Teixiera will be 31.  Jorje Posada will be 39.  Robinson Cano is still in his peak years, but carrying the geriatrics to his left, right, and far right are pretty significant expectations to place on the kid.  Since no amount of money will allow the Yankees to relegate these eight-figure contracts to the bench, I think the infield will be a major question for the Yankees moving forward. 

Bottom line is that the window for the Yankees to be among the heavyweights in the division and contenders for the World Series is officially closed.  It might be a long time before the Yankees even sniff 3rd place again in the AL East with the Blue Jays and Orioles on the rise.  I really do feel bad for the passionate die-hard Yankees fans out there.  I feel like they have been teased the past few seasons with one measley WS title in 10 years of outspending everyone, and now will have to go back to the losing ways of the Mattingly era.  It truly is a sad story.  I guess the light at the end of the tunnel is that the Yankees are only locked into Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixiera’s decline phases for another 7 years and $309 million.   After that, they can think about starting to infuse some young talent back into the system.

<<<I'm sure most people will get it, but this is snark.  Don't take any claims here too seriously.  See this post for a reference point>>>

I figured that I've criticized enough other peoples' lists that I might as well give the community an idea of where I'm coming from when it comes to my favorite team. 

Right off the bat, I'll warn people that there are a few fundamental things with the way I look at prospects that will lead to differences between my list and some others.  First, I ignore the 130 AB/50IP cutoff.  It makes sense for an organization like BA, which needs a uniform (if arbitrary) cutoff, but it has a tendency to just erase a category of players that I still think warrant discussion.  Anyone who is not yet established as a major league regular (with a generally known "true talent" level based on a large body of MLB work) is still a prospect in my eyes.  In this list, this applies to Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, and Adam Moore.

Next, while I think age relative to league is incredibly useful, my way of thinking usually tends to weight it less than other people.  I think ARL is hugely important in weighing the relative merits of good to very good prospects with bona fide major league skills.  For mediocre guys or fringe prospects, I think it tells you very little except that a guy has some time to become a completely different player.  A 19-year-old in full-season ball who has given absolutely no indication that he possesses current or potential major league skills does not get ranked above a 22 or 23-year-old who has based on a higher theoretical upside.  The most notable omission based on this principal is Gabriel Noriega, who at this point is so fundamentally flawed a hitter that I consider him a virtual non-prospect.  Carlos Triunfel’s ranking is affected by this idea. He makes it based on his plus contact rate, but people will be surprised at how low I put him.  My thoughts on Triunfel are simple: he came into pro ball with one plus skill (his swing/ability to make contact), and three years later he has yet to take a single meaningful step forward.  Denny Almonte isn’t on here either, because while he is kind of young and has some tools, he sucks at baseball. 

A related point on guys who are age-appropriate and at a relatively high level but are fundamentally flawed players: I write these kinds of players off pretty quickly.  Carlos Peguero and Mike Carp, while performing ok at Double-A and Triple-A, respectively, at decently young ages, don't make the cut.  Both players are 100% bat (well, Peguero’s got an arm, but that’s just about the least valuable tool and does little to make up for his shortcomings), and the bats just aren’t good enough.  Greg Halman also ranks much lower than I suspect the major outlets will put him.  He's here based on age, level, toolsiness, and the fact that he adds some value defensively, but the odds are against him turning into an even marginally useful major leaguer.

Finally, I'm assuming James Paxton will sign before the start of the 2011 season.  I don’t think he wants to sit out yet another year, return to the draft with less leverage, and keep risking injury in indy-ball when he can get some guaranteed money for his talent and start working towards the majors instead.

So yeah, I expect a great deal of disagreement, which is fine.  Hopefully people at least realize that this comes from some careful contemplation and a pretty extensive understanding of these guys' tools and skills, and the differences in opinion come from the fact that I weight things differently, and not because I don't understand, for instance, that Gabriel Noriega is young and scouts have called him "toolsy" or that Mauricio Robles has some velocity and had a high strikeout rate this year.

1. Dustin Ackley, 2B
2. Justin Smoak, 1B
3. Michael Pineda, RHP
4. Nick Franklin, SS
5. Michael Saunders, LF
6. James Paxton, LHP - There is a HUUUUUUGE drop-off in organizational talent after Saunders.  I consider 6-10 relatively interchangeable, but Paxton is the one I think offers the best combination of upside and polish.
7. Nate Tenbrink, 3B/OF - This one is probably a shocker, but Tenbrink’s 2010 was a fantastic, completely under-the-radar season.  Scouts are beginning to notice him, and he has worked hard to fix some of his bad habits in the field and at the plate.  I expect him to play his way onto peoples’ radars in the AFL.
8. Kyle Seager, IF – totally underrated.  Will never hit for plus power, and may never make it to average power, but he’ll hit, and he’ll field.  His road #s were just as good as his home #s this year, so I don’t think he’s a HD mirage.
9. Adam Moore, C – still has a chance to provide league average offense at C for several years.
10. Johermyn Chavez, OF – like him, don’t love him.  He’s better than Wladimir Balentien was at the same age, but he’s got a lot of work left to do. 
11. James Jones, OF - Made huge strides at the plate and in the field in the second half.  Great first full season from a raw guy who was considered a better prospect as a pitcher until last year.  His swing will never look pretty, which will turn scouts off. 
12. Dan Cortes, RP - This will be controversial.  Particularly in light of who’s ranked next.  But, Cortes has been dynamite in relief this year, flashing a fastball that touches 98-99mph.  His secondary stuff has played up in the pen as well.  I don’t usually rank relievers high, but Cortes is pretty much major league ready, and he profiles as a high leverage guy.
13. Alex Liddi, 3B - More controversy, as I expect most lists will have him anywhere from 4-7 spots higher (well, possibly even higher than that, but other lists won’t include Smoak/Saunders/Moore).  I have been watching him since before he made his AZL debut.  Several years later, in my opinion, every one of his skills and corresponding tools is just a little too weak to profile him as a major league regular.  He strikes out a little too much, walks a little too infrequently, doesn’t quite show enough power to make up for the approach problems, and while not a butcher at 3B, his range, footwork, and arm are all comfortably below average.  Remember when Michael Saunders used to perplex people with his freakishly average tools and skills across the board?  Well, if Saunders was all 50s, Liddi’s all 40s to me.  He’s young enough and solid enough to make a big leap still, which is why he still ranks pretty high, but I wouldn’t trade him straight-up for anyone I’ve ranked above him.
14. Ji-Man Choi, C(?) - I was tempted to rank him above Liddi, but I think that’d be going a bit too far.  A hot start next year and I may change my mind.  Very intriguing talent with surprising polish and a bit more upside than I think people give him credit for.
15.  Taijuan Walker, RHP - Love the arm and athleticism.  Best pure arm of any Mariners pitcher not named Pineda. 
16. Marcus Littlewood, SS – I think he’ll surprise some people next year.  Not like  Nick Franklin-level surprise, but I think scouts tend to underrate Littlewood for the same reason as they missed on Franklin: both showed great in-game power in HS but very little raw power.  I don’t think Littlewood will hit 20+ HRs in the MWL next year, but I suspect his adjustment to pro ball may open some eyes.
17. Mauricio Robles, LHP – Many may want Robles ranked higher, but he just screams reliever to me, and until I see him throw in relief I can’t be sure he’ll be a particularly dominant one.  Like the velocity, hate the poor command, and not a fan of the secondary offerings.  He doesn't hold his velocity late into games well, and he's also a very inefficient pitcher.  He only went 7 innings three times all year, and only pitched into the seventh twice more.
    
18. Jordan Shipers, LHP – caught some positive scouting reports out of the California collegiate league.  Spotty control of average MLB stuff with a little room for more.  He’s interesting, but doesn’t project as a world-beater.
19. Greg Halman, CF -  discussed at length above.  Not a fan, but can’t leave him off entirely.
20. Guillermo Pimentel, OF – I never really know how to rank players like Pimentel.  Most players with his profile never so much as long a single quality year in full-season ball, and he doesn't add much value with his glove.  This is where he ends up.  Like the power he shows in BP, like that he gets good marks for his makeup, but way to early to tell if he can actually play baseball or not.
21. Rich Poythress, 1B -  I want to rank him lower, but I think he has a chance to be an almost average 1B.  Not my kind of prospect at all, but I’m trying to be fair, and he’s got some skills that could play at the next level.  Next year will tell us a lot. At this point, though, I see him as a lumbering slugger who doesn't walk enough who has yet to convince scouts his power is usable at higher levels.  The fact that he had trouble turning on even decent fastballs in High-A is a huge red flag.
    
22. Carlos Triunfel, SS/3B/2B –discussed above.  Still young.  Still makes contact.  Can’t really say anything else good about him.
23. George Mieses, RHP – not yet missing enough bats for my taste, but being able to locate mid-90s gas at the age of 19 puts him on my radar.  All of the pitches he throws are heavy, and I expect him to improve his GB tendencies as he becomes more polished and repeats his delivery better.  Major sleeper candidate.
24. Stephen Pryor, RP – potential lockdown reliever who should move quickly.
25. Blake Beavan, RHP – I’m not a fan personally, but enough people I respect are.  Decently advanced, solidly polished, firmly below-average stuff.  Gets very high marks for makeup apparently, so that’s something.  He’s a very, very low upside guy, and I take issue with the assumption that he "WILL" have a major league career.  He’s a righty with marginal stuff.  How many of these guys do we see top out at AAA every single year?  I think there’s a very good chance he won’t be able to stick in the bigs, and the number of people who talk about him as some kind of lock perplexes me.
26. Ramon Morla, 3B – showed huge power and some defensive abilities in the Appy league this year.  Has big K problems, but gets universal praise for excellent makeup.  Called a potential 5-tooler by Connor Glassey. 
27. Maickel Cleto, RHP – still throws gas, still has yet to stay healthy enough to show us what he’s capable of.  Not a huge fan, and I think his most likely future is in the bullpen. 
28. Dennis  Raben, 1B/"OF" – will probably rank higher elsewhere, but he’s injury prone and his pitch recognition was absolutely awful this year.  One year away from joining Peguero and Carp off the list.
29. Erasmo Ramirez, RP – Doug Fister upside isn’t worth much until it’s actually on display in the majors.  Most of these type of players don’t make it.
30. Anthony Vasquez, LHP – a lefty with fringe stuff who made it work across three levels this year.  He doesn’t have huge upside, but he’s gotten my attention.  A little bit.

Sleeper: Matt Cerione.  Couldn’t rank him above Vasquez, but he could make me look foolish next year.  Toolsy OF who’s always underachieved ever since his college days came on huge in August.

Final cuts (no particular order): Cerione, Mario Martinez (still gets some love from scouts, still yet to perform after three professional seasons, still doesn’t seem to have the strength necessary to develop adequate power.  Wouldn’t be overly surprised to see him play his way back on my radar next year), Richard Vargas (one of the best live arms in the system), and Josh Leuke (whose presence on my favorite team absolutely disgusts me, but whose talent out of the ‘pen is undeniable – extra points off for the fact that the Mariners almost certainly won’t give him a shot and will have an extremely hard time trading him after the PR nightmare of the last 6 weeks or so.  Context matters).

So it's just about time to renew my Baseball America subscription, and I thought I would seek out the community's opinion on whether or not I should just re-up with the online version or subscribe to the print magazine.  I've been a paying subscriber for the online version for several years now and I have never, ever felt like I don't get my money's worth.  My question for those of you who subscribe to the hard copy of the magazine is whether or not the print version includes additional content.  Is there any reason to subscribe other than preferring the pleasure of reading a magazine to reading online?  Is it worth $30 extra for the year?

Sorry for the personal inquiry, but there are enough people who subscribe to BA here in some form or other that I doubt I'm the only one curious on the relative merits of different subscription plans.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1564411-p2.html

The part of this article that interests me:

Rumors suggest the Royals are seeking to swing a deal with the Dodgers to acquire catcher A.J. Ellis for second baseman Alberto Callaspo. If true, financial benefits would be down the road. Callaspo should reach arbitration eligibility after next season, but Ellis not until after 2011 at the earliest.

If those talks stall, the Royals seem determined to unload Callaspo in hopes of selling high after a season in which he batted .300 with a .356 on-base percentage, 11 homers and 73 RBIs.

Well, you can't say Dayton Moore doesn't evolve.  He's gone from his "look at the wrong things and buy high" strategy to a modified version of "sell high" that has led him to the conclusion that after batting .300 in his age-26 season and failing to qualify for super-2 status Alberto Callaspo has to go.  Wow.  Callaspo is coming off a 2.8 WAR season where he maintained his excellent contact rate (8.9K%) and nearly tripled his career .ISO.  Yes, he's not great on defense and a lot of his value lies in his batting average, but with his ability to make contact there's good reason to believe he isn't due for major regression, and his .315 BABIP this year doesn't exactly scream fluke.  The return Moore appears to be looking at?  A 28 year old slap-hitting catcher who failed to hit a single home run in the Albuquerqe band box.

Callaspo failed to qualify as a super-2, so he's near league minimum for another year.  He's bad at 2B, but he's not a total butcher and he's shown some ability to play 3B in the past.  He's also under club control for his age 27-30 seasons, and he's coming off a .352 wOBA this year.  He's a switch-hitter whose value shouldn't be undermined too much by the Safeco effect, and as a guy with a good bat who doesn't steal bases or put up gaudy HR totals, he's likely to get undervalued a bit in arbitration, keeping his price tag low through his prime.  In short, I'm a fan.

This looks like a great opportunity to add a couple wins to the 2010 roster for virtually no cost.  If the rumors are true and AJ Ellis is the kind of return that Moore's looking for, I have to believe the Mariners are capable of stepping in and offering more.  We already know Moore overvalues scrappy Mariner castoffs.

Thoughts?

In BA's Atlanta chat, Bill Ballew made what I felt was a bit of an outlandish claim, that this year's undisputed top position player prospect, Jason Heyward, was "the best all-around player" he had seen in more than 25 years of covering the minors.  I had a clear idea of who I thought the two best prospects in history were, and decided to go into the archive to round out the field and compare.

Note: This is based on prospect rankings at a particular point in time.  this means a couple of things: first, a player can be ranked more than once if his performance in more than one season in the minors justifies a historically high ranking.  Second, this will include players who didn't necessarily go onto have hall of fame careers.  This is based on what we knew about these players at the time they were ranked, and looking at busts as well as successes gives an interesting perspective and shows that even historically great prospects aren't necessarily sure things.

So, here are my top-10 hitting prospects since BA began publishing its top-100 lists online in 1990. Feel free to chime in with your own.

10. John Olerud, 1990

With no minor league track record to go on, BA played it safe and ranked Olerud #3 in 1990.  On talent alone, he was the clear #1.  Olerud was drafted in the 3rd round by the Blue Jays and signed for $575,000, nearly twice what the #1 overall pick signed for. No player in the modern era has come out of college as polished as John Olerud: he was a brilliant defensive first baseman with one of the prettiest swings scouts had ever seen, and rather than mess around with the minor leagues, the Blue Jays plugged him right into the lineup the next year, where he put up a 117OPS+ without ever experiencing a single minor league plate appearance.

9. Cliff Floyd, 1994

His career was de-railed by injuries, but Floyd was a mega-prospect.  Floyd was always a great athlete, but for some reason, he started his minor league career at 1B.  Moved to the OF in 1994, Floyd's bat took off.  He hit .329/.412/.600, smacking 26 home runs and stealing 31 bases as a 20-year-old in Double-A.  Other batters like Alex Gordon and Jay Bruce have had similarly impressive seasons at comparable levels, but Floyd's season stands out for its combination of monster stats, young age, and no real flaws.  He ran well, he played good outfield defense, he drew a lot of walks, and didn't strike out.  It took Floyd a few years to figure things out, and injuries robbed him of the kind of career his 1993 minor league season suggested he was capable of, but Floyd had a fantastic (if injury-shortened) peak from 1999-2003 where he hit .300/.383/.540, good for a 139OPS+ during that time.

8. Joe Mauer, 2005

Mauer was an enigma to me at the time.  BA had never ranked a guy #1 who had displayed as little power as Mauer had shown in his minor league career.  Apparently scouts know what they're talking about sometimes.  2005 was the second straight year Mauer ranked #1 on the BA list, and he would have been disqualified from consideration if not for an injury that kept him on the major league sidelines all of 2005.  Mauer was a pure tools guy from a prospect standpoint, but I'm choosing his 2005 ranking, because it came on the heels of Mauer finally showing the power scouts unanimously promised was coming.  In his injury-shortened MLB debut, Mauer hit .308 with a .162 ISO, with 15 of his 33 hits going for extra bases.

7. Ben Grieve, 1998

Our first bust on the list.  Ben Grieve serves as a reminder of why we should always take the stats of guys with old player skills with a massive lump of salt.  We can say we've evolved, but let's be honest: if someone equalled the numbers Grieve put up in his 1997 season today, the prospecting community would be drooling all over him.  This was as close to a perfect minor league season as it gets.  In his year-21 season, Grieve hit .350/.461/.640 with 31 home runs, playing the majority of the season in the pitcher-friendly Southern League.  He had a few ok seasons, but the lesson from Grieve's 1997 is clear: when people preach caution on guys like Lars Anderson and Eric Hosmer, pay attention.

6. J.D. Drew, 1999

Drew and agent Scott Boras cultivated an air of mystery around the player who waited 2 years after his first first-round selection to play a single game in the minors.  Drew, as most of you remember, went #2 overall in 1997, but held out and signed the next year as the 5th overall pick.  Drew's small-sample-size minor league debut showed that Boras isn't necessarily full of it all of the time, as he jumped straight into Double-A and showed that Boras's claims about him being major league ready really weren't far off base.  Drew cruised through Double-A and Triple-A, proving one of the hardest outs in recent memory, posting a .328/.444/.627 line in limited action in AA before hitting .316.471/.519 in his brief stint in AAA.  These numbers alone wouldn't justify ranking anyone this high due to small sample sizes, but the combination of Drew's storied prospect history, his excellent tools, and the fact that no college player in recent memory has jumped straight into Double-A and excelled this quickly put Drew way up there for me.  Drew has gone on to have an excellent career when not injured, and is one of the more underrated players in the game today despite playing for the uber high-profile Red Sox.  How many players could ever run a career .896 OPS over more than 5000 plate appearances and only have one all-star appearance to show for it?

5. Jason Heyward, 2010

This is as high as I can see myself ranking Heyward, not through any fault of his own, but because of the absolutely incredible performances that rank ahead of him.  Everyone knows what Heyward's done.  I was preaching a conservative ranking on the kid after 2009.  After all, I reasoned, he was a corner outfielder who had very good but not gaudy stats.  In 2009, Heyward shut me up in a big way.  It's not the raw stat line that impresses me most about Heyward.  Several other players have put up comparable batting lines in the last few years.  The three things that put Heyward in the company of the giants on this list for me are A) his age relative to league (least important), B) the fact that he improved upon his promotion to Double-A from great to really great, and C) (most important), the fact that he was able to maintain a .259 ISO in Double-A while striking out in fewer than 10% of his plate appearances.  That combination of power and contact is unbelievably rare, evoking a player who ranks just a couple spots above Heyward on this list. 

4. Matt Wieters, 2009

In recent catching prospect history, only Mike Piazza has ever put up a minor league season remotely similar to what Matt Wieters did in 2008.  The two main differences between Piazza in 1992 and Weiters 16 years later are that Wieters was a year younger and flashed an above average glove, while Piazza was always a defensive liability at the position.  Wieters combined the glove of Mauer with the offensive performance of Piazza.  We don't know yet whether Wieters' major league career will live up to his historic 2008 season, but I can't wait to find out.

3. Vladimir Guerrero, 1997

Guerrero fell just short of BA's #1 prospect ranking this year, and his 1996 season combined with that of the #1 prospect that year (yet to come) show why that was the most exciting minor league season in recent memory.  Guerrero, like Heyward, combined ridiculous power with the ability to make contact at a level that would make Ichiro jealous.  I grappled with the order of Guerrero/Wieters/Heyward, and on Guerrero v. Heyward specifically, I gave the edge to Vlad because A) he ran his > .600 SLG the entire season, while Heyward's came during a mid-season breakout, and B) Guerrero ran his contact rate over the entire season, while again, Heyward's amazing combination of plus-plus power and plus-plus contact emerged at Double-A (Heyward's contact and stats at Myrtle Beach were merely great, not quite ridiculously historically great.  Vlad played at that level all season).  Heyward was 2 years younger than Vlad, but the fact that he didn't put up the numbers over a full season still justifies ranking him below for me.  If Heyward spends another full season in the minors (which I doubt), I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn in a performance that would cause me to rank him above Vlad, but I can't do it yet.

2. Andruw Jones, 1997

One of the most absurdly ridiculous performances from a 19-year-old ever. Andruw Jones was probably too good for the minor leagues when the season began, but the Braves understandably refrained from skipping him from the SALLY league straight to the majors.  On the way, Jones hit .339/.421/.652 over 3 levels of the minors, smacking 34 home runs and swiping 30 bases while exciting scouts as a potential gold glove center fielder.

1. Alex Rodriguez, 1996

A-rod's 1995, like Jones' 1996, saw him play at a level unheard of for a 19-year-old, either before or since.  Drafted as a toolsy shortstop with questions about his bat, A-rod advanced quicker than anyone could have possibly predicted.  In 1995, A-Rod hit .360/.411/.654 in the first half of the season, and then was called up to serve as a bench player during the Mariners' 1995 playoff run.  2 things about A-rod's '95 cause me to rank him about Jones' '96 season: first, he logged substantial time in Triple-A while Jones' performance came at A+/AA with only a 12 game cup of coffee in AAA, and second, A-rod was an excellent defensive shortstop. Andruw Jones was clearly the best center field prospect the game had seen since Ken Griffey, Jr, but other players have shown similar (though ultimately inferior) abilities.  Scouts could look at young CFs and say "that kid's an Andruw Jones-type of player" and not get laughed out of the room.  Alex Rodriguez, on the other hand, was a class all by himself.  There have been other great shortstop performances in the minor leagues, but 15 years later nobody has ever looked at a prospect and drawn a comp to Alex Rodriguez with a straight face.  Shortstops with A-rod's glove get ranked in the top-30 if they merely project to hold their own on offense (see: Andrus, Elvis).  Shortstops with great bats come along, but very rarely are any good at the position (see Wood, Brandon).  In 1995, A-Rod was the best defensive shortstop in the minors and the best offensive prospect alive.  The rest, as they say, is history.

Honorable Mention: Justin Upton, 2007 - missed prospect eligibility by 10 at-bats, but would have been the clear #1 that year, and would have made my top-10 right ahead of Joe Mauer had he met BA's definition of "prospect."

Also Received Consideration: Chipper Jones, 1994, Jay Bruce, 2008, Josh Hamilton, 2001, and Mark Teixiera, 2003, Alex Rodriguez, 1995, Andruw Jones, 1996.

Pitchers will come in a few days.

Now that the regular season's over, let's spark some discussion.
Weigh in with your votes on the following:

Best overall system

Worst overall system

Most improved system (from a year ago - include both breakouts and teams you think drafted well)

Most depleted system - which team took the biggest hit?

Best overall system including major leaguers 25 and under

Worst overall system including major leaguers 25 and under

I need to think a LOT before I can weigh in, but I thought it would be cool to get the community's input.

Luis Valbuena never got any love from prospect analysts.  There were a lot of seasons of middling productions followed by "breakout seasons" that were never quite flashy enough to gain the eye of the prospecting community.  This year, Valbuena received a promotion to the majors to become the Indians' (virtually) everyday 2B at the age of 23.  On the game's biggest stage, he scuffled, performing at a level right around replacement level over slightly more than half a season. 

Right on target.

Looking at his track record, Valbuena's minor league pattern, 2009 fits in perfectly with his development.  Let's take a look.

In 2006, Valbuena began the year at low-A Wisconsin in the Midwest league.  True to form, his numbers were solid but in no way flashy.  Valbuena hit.286/.371/.400, walking exactly as many times as he struck out (44 BB, 44K in 325 ABs, excellent component stats).  Those numbers don't look great, but consider that the average OPS of the Midwest Leavue that year was .690 (and the average .ISO was .112), and Valbuena's .771 number with great patience and slightly above average pop looks pretty good.  Promoted to the California League towards the end of the season, Valbuena's production tailed off, and he hit just .252/.315/.362. 

In 2007, Valbuena was aggressively pushed to a Double-A assignment at the age of 21.  Things didn't go well.  He hit just .239/.311/.378.  He still knew how to take a walk and could punish a bad pitch, but his strikeouts rose a bit and had trouble making hard contact.

2008 was a different story.  Repeating double-A, Valbuena hit .304/.381/.483, and the fact that nobody took note and started talking about him as a quality prospect drove me absolutely crazy.  Regardless, he continued to put up good numbers and fly under the radar due to lack of huge HR power or game-changing speed.  Scouts also rated Valbuena the best defensive 2B in the Southern League.  Promoted to Triple-A, Valbuena's production once again fell.  He wasn't bad, but his power evaporated, and he hit just .302/.383/.373, feeding fears that he didn't have enough power to make it in the majors.  In the offseason, the Cleveland Indians took notice of Valbuena's season and acquired him as part of the 3-way JJ Putz/Franklin Gutierrez trade.

This year, Valbuena absolutely destroyed Triple-A for all of a month before getting the call to the show.  He was one of the International League's best hitters over the season's first 22 games, hitting .321/.436/.538 with 16 walks against only 13 strikeouts in 95 at-bats.  Then, he was called up to the majors, where he's hit .241/.293/.402. 

Anyone else see a pattern here?  Valbuena has scuffled at each new level only to return the next year as one of the circuit's better players.  Not many organizations would have promoted him as quickly as the Mariners did (big surprise), and I think if he had stayed in the low-mid minors longer he would be on a lot more peoples' radar, but I would not be surprised at all if he comes out and puts up a line similar to what Denard Span has done this year, only with a bit more power. UZR hates his defense (which is weird, because he looks very solid from a scouting perspective) so far in his career, which hurts his overall value, but I really, really love this kid's bat and think he's been underrated for years.

Discuss.

I was thinking about the Royals today, as I often do (I'm a Mariners fan, so the Battle for Grass Creek is obviously front and center in my mind as my team officially slips out of contention), and an interesting question occurred to me: who's worse at his job, Yuniesky Betancourt, or the GM who traded for him? 

The facts:

Let's start with Dayton Moore.  His shortcomings are well documented around here, but I'm willing to look past his record in previous years and focus just on 2009.  After all, GMs are people, and they can learn from their mistakes and grow as human beings as well as professionals.  This year, Moore acquired the following players through trade or free agency: Crisp, Farnsworth, Jacobs, Cruz, Betancourt, Bloomquist, Ramirez, Wright, Waechter, and Ponson (let me know if I'm missing anyone - this isn't the team I follow most closely).  The total cost of those players (including a pro-rated deduction for Betancourt for the roughly half-season the Ms picked up his tab) was $21.74 million.  Between the ten of them, they've combined for a whopping 1 win above a replacement-level player. 

To be fair, I'll point out that Coco Crisp accounted for the vast majority of the WAR total, and looked to be a resounding success of a pickup before going down to injury, and there was significant reason to believe that Juan Cruz would be much more valuable than he's been.  However, it's a rare circumstance where there are enough mitigating circumstances to excuse spending over $20 million for a single win above replacement, when the market price for that same value out of a single player has floated between 4-5 million the past few years.  That rate of return on his pickups to supplement the '09 squad is beyond awful.  More alarming has been the kind of player he's gone after.  Farnsworth, Bloomquist, and Jacobs were moves for players who each cost significantly more than the league minimum who had virtually no upside to speak of.

Onto the player Moore acquired that seems to have forever sealed the argument of which team can boast the title of Worst GM in baseball in the post-Bavasi era.  Yuniesky Betancourt may have his talents, but there is ample evidence at this point that baseball isn't one of them.  After a couple of seasons as a productive yet frustrating player, Betancourt discovered the glory of the buffet table, surrendering what little value he once had as a league average defensive shortstop.  As his offensive value withered to nothing, Betancourt went from defensive prodigy to the worst gloveman in the league at the position in short order.  After an awful -12.1 UZR last year, he's set to take his awful defense to new heights this year, already costing his two teams 10.6 runs more than a league average defender at his position.  In past years, his ability to make contact kept his offense at acceptable levels, but this year his .256 wOBA is third-worst among all hitters in the majors who've logged more than an arbitrarily-chosen 250 plate appearances. 

Add it all up, and Betancourt is a full 1.4 wins WORSE than a typical replacement-level player.  In other words, the difference over a full season between Betancourt and a random triple-A shortstop is GREATER than the difference between that random triple-A shortstop and a league average major leaguer.  Replacement level is calculated such that a team full of replacement-level players is supposed to be able to win ~45 games.  A team full of Betancourt-level players and a replacement-level pitching staff would win about 18-20 games.

So, who's worse?  The guy whose offseason moves operate at about 20% of the rate of efficiency as the market at large, or the truly awful player he acquired in his latest debacle?

Personally, I go with Betancourt.  For all of Moore's failures in acquiring any player that costs even a reasonable amount of money, he hasn't been awful at evaluating pitching talent.  Soria was a major win, as was Bannister.  Davies was a good idea, even though he hasn't been as successful as anyone would like.  On the offensive end, Moore seems to be lost, which is really troubling given how precise the metrics are in gauging the value of different offensive skills.  Moore's claim that Betancourt is a good defensive SS is just baffling to anyone who had to watch Yuni play the past 2 years.  In Moore's favor is the fact that he seems to be decent at one thing: evaluating pitching talent.  Valuing it and figuring out how to acquire that talent at a low cost is another question entirely (4.25 million for Kyle Freaking Farnsworth?!?!? When you already had an elite closer on staff?!?!?  I digress).  Betancourt, on the other hand, is good at absolutely nothing.

Alright, I'm done analyzing it.  You decide.

Since the last thread generated nearly 200 votes and some solid conversation and because I'll do pretty much anything to divert my attention from this case note I have to finish by Monday, I thought I'd gauge the community's feelings about the other prospect who intrigues me as much as or more than anyone else in the minors: Carlos Santana.

Currently batting .303/.427/.529 with a 27/22 BB/K ratio in 119 at-bats.  15 of his 36 hits have gone for extra bases.  On top of it all, Santana has gotten a tiny bit unlucky - his BABIP sits at .293 despite a 21.7% line drive rate (standard caveat about trusting "line drive rate" as determined by minor league baseball scorers across the nation applies).  Assuming his ball-in-play numbers approximate what minorleaguesplits says they are, you'd expect a BABIP more in the .320-.325 range.

Defensively, BA wrote early in the season about improving footwork, and I don't know how he's been at catching baserunners (a knock against him last season), but I've yet to hear any real talk that he can't handle the position. 

Offensively, he seems to have absolutely everything. He hits for average, he hits for power, he walks far more than he strikes out, and strikes out in fewer than 20% of his at-bats.  Santana's got power, patience, and contact at THE premium position of all premium positions.  

He only has one knock against him: at 23 in double-A, he's not the typical age for the truly elite prospects.  I did some quick looking, and couldn't find a 23-year-old hitter who cracked BA's top 10 in the past 10 years.  The last 23-year-old position player who cracked the top-15 was Dallas McPherson after his 2004 season where he hit 40 home runs between AA and AAA.

Part of this is self-selection: when deserving 23-year-olds start hitting the crap out of the ball in Double-A or higher they tend to get promoted to the majors and eclipse the 130 AB mark.  Another part of it is that 20-year-olds are much more likely to put up the counting stats necessary for hall-of-fame careers, and prospect lists all about upside tend to rank those higher. 

So, where do y'all think Santana fits in?  Again, I don't necessarily want to talk about Santana in direct comparison to other elite prospects, although he probably inevitably invites a comparison to the other elite catching prospect not named Matt Wieters.  Instead, think about the general range, and where a talent like Santana's would fit in a top 100 list during a typical year (whatever that is).

Josh Vitters is the most fascinating story in the minors for me this year.  In a normal year, a teenager showing any kind of pop in the Midwest League is enough to put him on the radar and peg him for a huge breakout the following year.  Recently, we've seen guys like Carlos Santana, Brandon Wood and Adam Jones enjoy huge seasons following very modest returns in the MWL.  We've also seen good but not great power numbers put a good deal of prospects on the top-100 radar for projectability alone.

A lot of top-25 talents have come through the MWL in the past few years, including Moustakas, Travis Snider, Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton, and Colby Rasmus, all of whom were teenagers when they were in the league.  Vitters' current .ISO of .250 is better than every single player just named. 

Obviously, there's a very good chance Vitters doesn't end the season with a .250 ISO.  Also obviously, Vitters never, ever takes a walk, which is a problem none of the above-mentioned players had in their tour of the league.  He also has a contact rate far superior to what most of the players in the above group did when they were in the MWL.  Given his results, he hasn't needed to work on patience, and his coaches have said they don't want to stress the importance of taking walks for a guy who can maintain light-tower power while still making plus contact.

Given all of that, where do you guys think he ranks?  I'm asking about a general impression of the tier he's in rather than a specific comparison between Vitters and other prospects.

Discuss.

I want to kick off a space for people on this website to discuss the performance of draft prospects from the college ranks.

Not too many absolute marquee matchups this weekend, but Andy Oliver will get his first real test of the season today, going up against a potent Eastern Carolina lineup (ranked 23rd in the nation).

While technically the Friday starter, Stephen Strasburg went yesterday and well...he's pretty good. 

His season line so far: 12.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 3BB, 27 Ks.

He hasn't gone up against any great squads yet, but my god.  27 K's in 12.1 innings. 

Other marquee matchups today include Rice v. UCLA, Texas A&M v. UC Irvine, and Florida v. Miami.

Discuss.

Rotoworld's saying Michael Wilson's been released.

Man, he had a wild ride through the minors. It took him three years to reach a full season league, then he had a total stall-out in Double-A after finally showing promise in 2006, followed by a bit of a bounceback, and now he's been cut.

I expect him to resurface for another team and spend the next few years punishing mistakes in the PCL, striking out all the time and playing awful defense.

So long, Mike.  You were almost interesting to follow, and we wish you the best, but may no Mariners scouting department ever again reprise the "spend high draft picks on great athletes whether or not they can play baseball and hope for the best" strategy that brought you into the organization.

Many of the people on this site are familiar with David Cameron, one of the guys behind the USSMariner blog.  During the 2007 season, dave wrote an open letter to then-Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves about Felix Hernandez's ridiculously predictable pitch selection early in games.  This led to a concerted effort by Chaves and Hernandez to mix pitches, and both men gave interviews to the local media saying that they realized that if an average fan who writes on the internet can figure out what Felix was about to throw, the hitter probably could, too.  It was a pretty damn cool instance of a blogger actually effecting the way baseball was played. 

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote. 

If the powers that be at LetsGoTribe don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down.

If, however, you feel like supporting a damn good writer and damn good member of the baseblogging community, follow This link and vote for Dave!

*disclaimer: I am not Dave Cameron, just someone who has greatly enjoyed his writing over the years.

Many of the people on this site are familiar with David Cameron, one of the guys behind the USSMariner blog.  During the 2007 season, dave wrote an open letter to then-Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves about Felix Hernandez's ridiculously predictable pitch selection early in games.  This led to a concerted effort by Chaves and Hernandez to mix pitches, and both men gave interviews to the local media saying that they realized that if an average fan who writes on the internet can figure out what Felix was about to throw, the hitter probably could, too.  It was a pretty damn cool instance of a blogger actually effecting the way baseball was played. 

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote. 

If the powers that be at Royals Review don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down. If, however, you believe we need more level-headed analysts out there to keep the tempers down when the Battle for Grass Creek once again rears its ugly head, head on over and support a damn good baseball blogger in need.

Follow This link and vote for Dave!

*disclaimer: I am not Dave Cameron, just someone who has greatly enjoyed his writing over the years.

Many of the people on this site are familiar with David Cameron, one of the guys behind the USSMariner blog.  During the 2007 season, dave wrote an open letter to then-Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves about Felix Hernandez's ridiculously predictable pitch selection early in games.  This led to a concerted effort by Chaves and Hernandez to mix pitches, and both men gave interviews to the local media saying that they realized that if an average fan who writes on the internet can figure out what Felix was about to throw, the hitter probably could, too.  It was a pretty damn cool instance of a blogger actually effecting the way baseball was played. 

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote. 

If the powers that be at LSB don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down, but several SBNation sites have already put up posts mobilizing support for Cameron and I've posted elsewhere to generally positive response. 

If the divisional rivalry doesn't cut too deep, head on over and throw your support behind a damn good baseball blogger in need by following This link and voting for Dave!

Many of the people on this site are familiar with David Cameron, one of the guys behind the USSMariner blog.  During the 2007 season, dave wrote an open letter to then-Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves about Felix Hernandez's ridiculously predictable pitch selection early in games.  This led to a concerted effort by Chaves and Hernandez to mix pitches, and both men gave interviews to the local media saying that they realized that if an average fan who writes on the internet can figure out what Felix was about to throw, the hitter probably could, too.  It was a pretty damn cool instance of a blogger actually effecting the way baseball was played. 

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote. 

If the powers that be at McCovey Chronicles don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down. A few other SBNation sites have thrown their support behind Dave (and I've posted call to action fanposts elsewhere), and I thought some in the community might want to help out a damn good baseball blogger in need.

So, follow This link and vote for Dave!

*disclaimer: I am not Dave Cameron, just someone who has greatly enjoyed his writing over the years.

Many of the people on this site are familiar with David Cameron, one of the guys behind the USSMariner blog.  During the 2007 season, dave wrote an open letter to then-Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves about Felix Hernandez's ridiculously predictable pitch selection early in games.  This led to a concerted effort by Chaves and Hernandez to mix pitches, and both men gave interviews to the local media saying that they realized that if an average fan who writes on the internet can figure out what Felix was about to throw, the hitter probably could, too.  It was a pretty damn cool instance of a blogger actually effecting the way baseball was played. 

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote. 

If the powers that be at gaslamp ball don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down. A few other SBNation sites have thrown their support behind Dave (and I've posted call to action fanposts elsewhere), and even though I know the Ms are the Padres hated rivals and all, I thought some in the community might want to help out a damn good baseball blogger in need.

So, follow This link and vote for Dave!

I posted this a few days back.  There are now 5 days left in open voting, and David Mauro's got the weight of Dailykos.com behind him, so I figured the time was ripe for a re-post.

Many of the people on this site are familiar with David Cameron, one of the guys behind the USSMariner blog.  During the 2007 season, dave wrote an open letter to then-Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves about Felix Hernandez's ridiculously predictable pitch selection early in games.  This led to a concerted effort by Chaves and Hernandez to mix pitches, and both men gave interviews to the local media saying that they realized that if an average fan who writes on the internet can figure out what Felix was about to throw, the hitter probably could, too.  It was a pretty damn cool instance of a blogger actually effecting the way baseball was played. 

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote. 

If John doesn't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down, but several SBNation sites have already put up posts mobilizing support for Cameron, and I wanted minorleagueball to get in on the action.

So, follow This link and vote for Dave!

Not sure if this has been posted here yet or not.  If so, my apologies.

Many of the people on this site are familiar with David Cameron, one of the guys behind the USSMariner blog.  During the 2007 season, dave wrote an open letter to then-Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves about Felix Hernandez's ridiculously predictable pitch selection early in games.  This led to a concerted effort by Chaves and Hernandez to mix pitches, and both men gave interviews to the local media saying that they realized that if an average fan who writes on the internet can figure out what Felix was about to throw, the hitter probably could, too.  It was a pretty damn cool instance of a blogger actually effecting the way baseball was played. 

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote. 

If John doesn't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down, but several SBNation sites have already put up posts mobilizing support for Cameron, and I wanted minorleagueball to get in on the action.

So, follow This link and vote for Dave!

Tuiasosopo has fallen off of every radar screen after failing to hit through aggressive promotions in the past few years, but after a terrible first 2 months he's been tearing it up in Triple-A.

Since June, he's hitting .302/.393/.526 - good for a .920 OPS in 264 ABs, including an august where he hit .341/.415/.659 with 7 home runs  This despote playing in the most extreme pitchers' park in the PCL.  He's still only 22, and he can play a legit third base. Mariners prospects tend to be overlooked because to a man they're always playing a level or two above where most teams would slot them, but he's looking like a legitimate prospect to me.