SB Nation User Blog: slamcactus

Premature Rankings Talk: Carlos Santana is a top ____ Prospect.

slamcactus — Sun, 24 May 2009 23:56:52 -0000

Since the last thread generated nearly 200 votes and some solid conversation and because I'll do pretty much anything to divert my attention from this case note I have to finish by Monday, I thought I'd gauge the community's feelings about the other prospect who intrigues me as much as or more than anyone else in the minors: Carlos Santana.

Currently batting .303/.427/.529 with a 27/22 BB/K ratio in 119 at-bats. 15 of his 36 hits have gone for extra bases. On top of it all, Santana has gotten a tiny bit unlucky - his BABIP sits at .293 despite a 21.7% line drive rate (standard caveat about trusting "line drive rate" as determined by minor league baseball scorers across the nation applies). Assuming his ball-in-play numbers approximate what minorleaguesplits says they are, you'd expect a BABIP more in the .320-.325 range.

Defensively, BA wrote early in the season about improving footwork, and I don't know how he's been at catching baserunners (a knock against him last season), but I've yet to hear any real talk that he can't handle the position.

Offensively, he seems to have absolutely everything. He hits for average, he hits for power, he walks far more than he strikes out, and strikes out in fewer than 20% of his at-bats. Santana's got power, patience, and contact at THE premium position of all premium positions.

He only has one knock against him: at 23 in double-A, he's not the typical age for the truly elite prospects. I did some quick looking, and couldn't find a 23-year-old hitter who cracked BA's top 10 in the past 10 years. The last 23-year-old position player who cracked the top-15 was Dallas McPherson after his 2004 season where he hit 40 home runs between AA and AAA.

Part of this is self-selection: when deserving 23-year-olds start hitting the crap out of the ball in Double-A or higher they tend to get promoted to the majors and eclipse the 130 AB mark. Another part of it is that 20-year-olds are much more likely to put up the counting stats necessary for hall-of-fame careers, and prospect lists all about upside tend to rank those higher.

So, where do y'all think Santana fits in? Again, I don't necessarily want to talk about Santana in direct comparison to other elite prospects, although he probably inevitably invites a comparison to the other elite catching prospect not named Matt Wieters. Instead, think about the general range, and where a talent like Santana's would fit in a top 100 list during a typical year (whatever that is).

Poll

Carlos Santana belongs in which of the following ranges as a prospect?

Top 5

10 votes

6-15

73 votes

16-30

62 votes

31-50

24 votes

51-75

7 votes

76-100

3 votes

Outside the top 100

5 votes

184 votes | Poll has closed

Premature Rankings Talk: Josh Vitters is a top ______ prospect.

slamcactus — Sat, 23 May 2009 21:37:02 -0000

Josh Vitters is the most fascinating story in the minors for me this year. In a normal year, a teenager showing any kind of pop in the Midwest League is enough to put him on the radar and peg him for a huge breakout the following year. Recently, we've seen guys like Carlos Santana, Brandon Wood and Adam Jones enjoy huge seasons following very modest returns in the MWL. We've also seen good but not great power numbers put a good deal of prospects on the top-100 radar for projectability alone.

A lot of top-25 talents have come through the MWL in the past few years, including Moustakas, Travis Snider, Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton, and Colby Rasmus, all of whom were teenagers when they were in the league. Vitters' current .ISO of .250 is better than every single player just named.

Obviously, there's a very good chance Vitters doesn't end the season with a .250 ISO. Also obviously, Vitters never, ever takes a walk, which is a problem none of the above-mentioned players had in their tour of the league. He also has a contact rate far superior to what most of the players in the above group did when they were in the MWL. Given his results, he hasn't needed to work on patience, and his coaches have said they don't want to stress the importance of taking walks for a guy who can maintain light-tower power while still making plus contact.

Given all of that, where do you guys think he ranks? I'm asking about a general impression of the tier he's in rather than a specific comparison between Vitters and other prospects.

Discuss.

Poll

Josh Vitters belongs in which of the following ranges as a prospect?

Top 5

41 votes

6-15

49 votes

16-30

96 votes

31-50

60 votes

51-75

12 votes

76-100

5 votes

Outside of the top 100

3 votes

266 votes | Poll has closed

Weekend College Baseball Thread

slamcactus — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 19:37:05 -0000

I want to kick off a space for people on this website to discuss the performance of draft prospects from the college ranks.

Not too many absolute marquee matchups this weekend, but Andy Oliver will get his first real test of the season today, going up against a potent Eastern Carolina lineup (ranked 23rd in the nation).

While technically the Friday starter, Stephen Strasburg went yesterday and well...he's pretty good.

His season line so far: 12.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 3BB, 27 Ks.

He hasn't gone up against any great squads yet, but my god. 27 K's in 12.1 innings.

Other marquee matchups today include Rice v. UCLA, Texas A&M v. UC Irvine, and Florida v. Miami.

Discuss.

Michael Wilson --> Scrap Heap

slamcactus — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 04:07:14 -0000

Rotoworld's saying Michael Wilson's been released.

Man, he had a wild ride through the minors. It took him three years to reach a full season league, then he had a total stall-out in Double-A after finally showing promise in 2006, followed by a bit of a bounceback, and now he's been cut.

I expect him to resurface for another team and spend the next few years punishing mistakes in the PCL, striking out all the time and playing awful defense.

So long, Mike. You were almost interesting to follow, and we wish you the best, but may no Mariners scouting department ever again reprise the "spend high draft picks on great athletes whether or not they can play baseball and hope for the best" strategy that brought you into the organization.

Take 5 seconds to vote for one of our own!

slamcactus — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 17:43:53 -0000

Many of the people on this site are familiar with David Cameron, one of the guys behind the USSMariner blog. During the 2007 season, dave wrote an open letter to then-Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves about Felix Hernandez's ridiculously predictable pitch selection early in games. This led to a concerted effort by Chaves and Hernandez to mix pitches, and both men gave interviews to the local media saying that they realized that if an average fan who writes on the internet can figure out what Felix was about to throw, the hitter probably could, too. It was a pretty damn cool instance of a blogger actually effecting the way baseball was played.

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote.

If the powers that be at LetsGoTribe don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down.

If, however, you feel like supporting a damn good writer and damn good member of the baseblogging community, follow This link and vote for Dave!

*disclaimer: I am not Dave Cameron, just someone who has greatly enjoyed his writing over the years.

Take 5 seconds to vote for one of our own!

slamcactus — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 17:40:19 -0000

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote.

If the powers that be at Royals Review don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down. If, however, you believe we need more level-headed analysts out there to keep the tempers down when the Battle for Grass Creek once again rears its ugly head, head on over and support a damn good baseball blogger in need.

Follow This link and vote for Dave!

*disclaimer: I am not Dave Cameron, just someone who has greatly enjoyed his writing over the years.

Take 5 seconds to help one of our own!

slamcactus — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 21:55:04 -0000

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote.

If the powers that be at LSB don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down, but several SBNation sites have already put up posts mobilizing support for Cameron and I've posted elsewhere to generally positive response.

If the divisional rivalry doesn't cut too deep, head on over and throw your support behind a damn good baseball blogger in need by following This link and voting for Dave!

Vote for one of our own!

slamcactus — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 16:35:00 -0000

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote.

If the powers that be at McCovey Chronicles don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down. A few other SBNation sites have thrown their support behind Dave (and I've posted call to action fanposts elsewhere), and I thought some in the community might want to help out a damn good baseball blogger in need.

So, follow This link and vote for Dave!

*disclaimer: I am not Dave Cameron, just someone who has greatly enjoyed his writing over the years.

Vote for one of our own!

slamcactus — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 07:55:55 -0000

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote.

If the powers that be at gaslamp ball don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down. A few other SBNation sites have thrown their support behind Dave (and I've posted call to action fanposts elsewhere), and even though I know the Ms are the Padres hated rivals and all, I thought some in the community might want to help out a damn good baseball blogger in need.

So, follow This link and vote for Dave!

Re-Post: Vote for one of our own

slamcactus — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 20:46:22 -0000

I posted this a few days back. There are now 5 days left in open voting, and David Mauro's got the weight of Dailykos.com behind him, so I figured the time was ripe for a re-post.

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote.

If John doesn't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down, but several SBNation sites have already put up posts mobilizing support for Cameron, and I wanted minorleagueball to get in on the action.

So, follow This link and vote for Dave!