Lightsaber Metrics

LSM @ twtter

Hey, everybody else has a blog! See? If I can't get people to read it for the content, I will suck them in with Dayton Moore wielding Sith weaponry. So far I have a post on Soria turning into a beast, a little bit about me, and the most proficient strikeout pitchers throwing below 91mph. PS: Will, hope making this post is okay, if not delete it and kick me in the nuts.

If you go into the Royals clubhouse looking for people willing to admit that they're worried about Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, you're going to spend a whole lot more time looking than finding.

Heck, some of the players get downright angry when even confronted with the idea that the one-time ace could be due for a down year.

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Mike Aviles should probably feel angry.

He was the Royals' Player of the Year in 2008, worked hard to come back ahead of schedule after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2009, and was just demoted a week into the 2010 season after getting the sum total of one at-bat. So yes, the Royals would understand if Mike Aviles were angry.

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John Bale will go down as a strange character in Royals history for me. He was seemingly always injured, and when he was playing, he still looked like he was suffering from some crippling Jose Guillen disease. Also, he resembled my middle-aged neighbor who likes to mow his yard shirtless. Which, while very disturbing in its own right, paled (ha ha) in comparison with his basic ineptitude on the mound.

Which is why he is a strange character...

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After Dayton Moore's blockbuster offseason (which I can only assume is nearing completion) - made up of the inspired signings of Brian Anderson, Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, Jason Kendall, and other assorted fringe major league flotsam - I started thinking about Allard Baird.

Allard Baird loved to bring in aging veteran (past their prime) players at seemingly reasonable salaries as well. We saw this in Juan Gonzalez, Benito Santiago, Mark Redman, Scott Elarton, Joe Mays, Odalis Perez, etc. So here enters the question: Will the 2010 Royals perform better than the 2006 Royals (the team fielded in the last full year of Baird's reign)? After the jump, I've attached the top 9 in AB's for the 2006 team to give you an idea of who was hitting the field every day.

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“One of Dusty’s best pitches is his changeup,” Hillman said. “He didn’t use it. He left a fastball out and over the plate.”

- Kansascity.com

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I compiled this by going through gameday manually and looking at each pitch, the automated pitch classification is very poor.

Zack threw:

117 total pitches:

• 11 changeups (9.4%)
• 19 curveballs (16.2%) - at velocities from 68mph to 79mph. The two curveballs he didn't throw in that range: 71, and 72mph.
• 23 sliders (19.7%)
• 64 fastballs (54.7%)

So basically, he was throwing an offspeed pitch very nearly every other pitchc, that was going to be somewhere between 68 and 90 mph.

I just found this fascinating. That is all. I apologize for blatant mistakes in advance, it is almost 3am.

When did Zack Greinke get so awesome? I was thinking about this today. Zack Greinke had a great year last year, but it was nothing close to the way he has started this season. Which left me asking, at what point last year did he start to put it all together? When did the switch get hit? To the numbers....

(WARNING: What you are about to read is derived from extremely small sample sizes: ONE PLUS SEASON! I am not attempting to make conclusions, or predict future performance, but rather lay out the past 1+ year of Zack Greinke's career in an easy to follow manner.)

Okay. Let's start where Greinke restarted, as a starter: 2008. He pitched a couple games in 2007 toward the end of the season, but I'm going to disregard those as he was just getting his feet wet in the rotation again.

If you look at Greinke's 2008 season, from the start to May 28, he posted a 2.88 ERA. However, his peripherals weren't as strong as they could have been:

From April 3, 2008 to May 28, 2008

• 11 GS
• 75 IP
• 2.88 ERA
• 1.2 WHIP
• 71 hits (8.52 H/9)
• 19 BB (2.28 BB/9)
• 53 SO (6.36 K/9. 2.79/1 K/BB)
• 7 HR (.84 HR/9)
• 19% LD
• 1.04 GB

Certainly these are impressive numbers, but towards the middle of the season Greinke hit a bump. This rough stretch started with a four home run shellacking by the Chicago White Sox, and during it Greinke posted the worst 10 start stretch of his career since the season that forced him to take a year away from baseball to regain his sanity. The numbers:

From June 3rd, 2008 to July 23, 2008

• 10 GS
• 58 IP
• 5.59 ERA
• 1.54 WHIP
• 67 H (10.40 H/9)
• 22 BB (3.41 BB/9)
• 61 SO (9.47 K/9, 2.77/1 K/BB)
• 11 HR (1.71 HR/9)
• 19% LD
• 1.20 GB

Whoa. Damn. There are some really ugly numbers in there - outside of the K/9, those are bad. The HR/9 is especially, Jeff-Suppan-starting-every-game-in-Philly bad. Brett-Myers-losing-another-3MPH-of-velocity bad. So the question is, WTF happened? Basically, from my own non expert analysis, Greinke  got unlucky, and when you're putting a lot of guys on base, you can't really afford to get unlucky.

Giving up 11 homers in  58 innings is hard... unless your name is Kyle Farnsworth. Line drive percentage stayed the same, ground balls actually went up slightly (depending on who's GB/FB numbers you use - I used Fangraphs, BR disagrees). But, K's went up -  as did walks, and balls soaring out of the ballpark.

I don't have the pitch F/X data because I'm not smart enough to manipulate it, but I am curious to see if the pitch mix changed here or what. Either way: big time jump in strikeouts, big time jump in walks.Interesting. This is the point in the season where Zack turned into a bonafide power pitcher as a starter. A power pitcher that was putting too many guys on base, and serving up some serious bombs.

Obviously he wasn't going to give up that many HR's for the rest of the season, but more importantly, he had to refine his control. So, Zack did what he does best - bounce back. The rebound started July 28, 2008 and has continued to this day. Suddenly, Zack Greinke started pitching really well. Really, really well. Like, "suddenly I can throw all my pitches for strikes and nobody can hit them" well.

How did he do it? Well... it has been a combination of throwing with the command he showed in his first 11 starts, joined with the strikeout rate of his next 9. Which has given us his last 15:

From July 28 2008 - April 24 2009

• 15 GS
• 98.1 IP
• 1.65 ERA
• 1.06 WHIP
• 83 hits (7.6 H/9)
• 21 walks (1.93 BB/9)
• 105 K (9.64 K/9, 5/1 K/BB)
• 3 HR (.28 HR/9)
• 1.32 GB
• ~23% LD (not exactly sure, don't have time to calculate it exactly - if somebody wants to figure it out for me, that'd be sweet)

*So just for fun, what would those rate stats look like projected over the 34 starts Johan Santana got last year?

• 34 GS
• 222 IP / 187 H
• 238 K / 48 BB

Okay, here we go. Those are some serious numbers. Groundball rate continues to rise (yay!), strikeout rate stays consistent with what he cranked it up to in that poor stretch of games, but check out the walk numbers. Anytime you are posting >9 K/9 and <2 BB/9, you are entering Johan Santana territory. Another thing worth pointing out is that while he has not allowed many hits, it is not an unsustainable number. The very low WHIP is very much the product of a very low walk rate. The one part of this that screams out "LUCKY" is the home runs allowed, which obviously is not going to remain that low. However, even with regression to the mean in the % of flyballs leaving the yard, these are excellent numbers.

Yes, the sample size is small. Yes, we're only 4 games into the season. Still, I think this is a fairly interesting look into the continued evolution of Zack Greinke. If you need a reason to feel happy about the future of the Royals, in the wake of Gordon and Soria being injured, Kyle Davies getting pummeled back to early 2008, Sydney Ponson starting today, Horacio Ramirez and Tony Pena Jr both occupying spots on the 25-man... Just look at those last 98 IP. 

Oh man.

"That's hot." - Paris Hilton

Mike Aviles Feature

Kyle Davies Feature

Jose Guillen Feature

Joakim Soria Feature

Zack Greinke Feature

There are several other smaller articles that are on the site also, with a bit of looking, but these are the major pieces. The Greinke piece in particular is a must read.

And here are some additional words to meet the post minimum requirements And here are some additional words to meet the post minimum requirements And here are some additional words to meet the post minimum requirements

Just for fun:

Fastball (Pitch F/X determined)

Slider (75mph+)

Curveball (<75mph)

Changeup (Pitch F/X determined)

March 31
K - 83mph, slider (swinging) - 2-2
April 2
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
K- 92mph, fastball (swinging) - 3-2
K- 70mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
April 6
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
K- 90mph, fastball (looking) - 2-2
K- 69mph, curveball (looking) - 0-2
April 15
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
April 16
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) - 2-2
K- 68mph, curveball (looking) - 0-2
April 24
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
April 29
K- 92mph, fastball (swinging) - 3-2
K- 86mph, changeup (swinging) - 3-2
May 3
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
K- 92mph, fastball (swinging) - 0-2
May 11
K- 91mph, fastball (swinging) - 1-2
May 14
K- 83mph, changeup (swinging) - 3-2
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
May 16
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
K- 70mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
May 21
K- 82mph, slider (swinging) - 1-2
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
May 26
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
May 27
K- 78mph, slider (swinging) - 1-2
K- 79mph, slider (looking) - 1-2
May 31
K- 66mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
June 6
K- 91mph, fastball (looking) - 0-2
K- 92mph, fastball (swinging) - 3-2
June 9
K- 92mph, fastball (swinging) - 0-2
June 12
K- 91mph, fastball (swinging) - 3-2
June 17
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
June 19
K- 82mph, slider (swinging) - 1-2
June 21
K- 70mph, curveball (swnging) - 1-2
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 2-2
June 22
K- 93mph, fastball (looking) - 0-2
June 25
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
June 30
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
K- 77mph, slider (swinging) - 1-2
July 3
K- 91mph, fastball (looking) - 1-2
K- 70mph, curveball (swingng) - 0-2
July 7
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
K- 77mph, slider (swinging) - 2-2
K- 67mph, curveball (looking) - 0-2
July 11
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
July 13
K- 90mph, fastball (swnging) - 2-2
July 20
K- 70mph, curveball (swinging) - 1-2
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) - 0-2
July 24
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) - 2-2
July 29
K- 91mph, fastball (looking) - 1-2
K- 79mph, slider (swinging) 1-2
August 2
K- 91mph, fastball (swinging) 2-2
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) 1-2
August 4
K- 90mph, fastball (swinging) 3-2
August 10
K- 68mph, curveball (swinging) 1-2
K- 69mph, curveball (swinging) 1-2
K- 90mph, fastball (looking) 0-2
K- 76mph, slider (looking) 0-2
Sep 2
K- 79mph, slider (swinging) 2-2
Sep 4
K- 81mph, changeup (swinging) 1-2
Sep 6
K- 85mph, changeup (swinging) 1-2
Sep 11
K- 84mph, changeup (swinging) 2-2
Sep 15
K- 85mph, changeup (swinging) 2-2
Sep 16
K- 67mph, curveball (swinging) 1-2
Sep 20
K- 84mph, changeup (swinging) 0-2
K- 70mph, curveball (swinging) 1-2

Strikeouts on changeup: 7

Strikeouts on slider: 10

Strikeouts on fastball: 16

Strikeouts on slow curve: 33

If you've ever attended a baseball game, you're familiar with the crack of a bat. If you've ever seen Barry Bonds blast a long home run, you're familiar with the sound that an especially well-struck ball makes. Kevin Seitzer spent 11 years of his life playing for several major league teams, producing that exact sound for fans in the stands. He made his name spraying balls all over the diamond with his even, steady, professional swing, making friends with a bright smile and easygoing demeanor. I had the chance to catch up with Kevin this past week, get his thoughts on life, the game of baseball, and what he is going to do to help out the young Diamondback hitters.

    "When I was 15," Seitzer told me while walking toward the practice field, "My pops always got on my case. See, when I was a kid I had no patience, I wanted to hack, I wanted to crush every pitch - but one day after practice, he pulled me aside, and he told me, do you know what he told me?" - he was grinning, so I shook my head no.

    "Well, I'll tell ya what, he told me that there is always going to be another pitch. I was 15, and sort of a dumb kid, so at the time that made a lot of sense to me. Always another pitch. Well, until I struck out looking damn near 3 times in the first game of the season the next day!". With this, the man referred to by friends as 'Kev', or 'The Seitz' let out a booming laugh, and I was left wondering what exactly he was talking about.

    If you spend a little bit of time with Kevin Seitzer, you start to realize he doesn't necessarily make sense. Not like a normal person makes sense, at least. Something about him, is different, maybe he is just a touch off, perhaps best described as 2 degrees away from normalcy. Then again, the great ones are never normal, and Kevin Seitzer was certainly a great hitter. According to the kids he works with at his Mac-N-Seitz baseball academy in Kansas City, he's apparently also a great teacher, something the Diamondbacks hope will carry over well to the major league level.

*

    "Scouts."

     One word, and lengthy eye contact was at first all 'The Seitz' gave me for an answer when I asked him what was preventing most kids in the minors from making it to the big leagues.

    "Let me tell you what, when I was in the minor leagues, I had an A-ball season where I got on base damn near half the time. Now, this was back in the day, this was the 1980's, Madonna was still cool, so was batting average. I hit about .310 that half season, and do you know what a scout told me?"

    Kevin likes to speak like this. In my time with him he spoke mostly in questions, ones that he had the answer to. So I told the Yoda of hitting, that no, no I did not know.

    "The scout, he told me I should walk less. Because, if I walked less, I'd swing at more pitches, and then I would probably hit .350 instead of .310. Soon as I got promoted to AA, I did just that. Hit probably about 30 points better, but my on base percentage stayed the same, I realized this after the season, and I went back to how I did it before, do you know why?"

    Once again, I shook my head no.

    "Because," he said with a huge grin, "When it comes to work, I don't like doing it if I don't have to. Conservation of energy and all that stuff, there is a finite amount in our lil' tiny universe. So if I could get on base the same percentage without swinging the bat and relying on the ball finding a hole, why would I swing the bat?".

    This, this is the genius of Kevin Seitzer.

*

"Hell no! I always hated the inside pitch!", was the emphatic reaction from 'The Seitz', accompanied by a clenched fist pounding the table.

     You see, Kevin Seitzer doesn't like the inside pitch. He never did. Well, at least not to hit. If Kevin Seitzer were a pitcher, he would only throw inside pitches, at least that's what he told me during our lunch together. So, what if the hitters started pulling the inside pitches he would repeatedly throw?

    "I'd throw harder," Kevin told me with a knowing chuckle, "Maybe crank it up to 110, 115. That's miles per hour in case you don't understand how I roll, because there is nothing more painful than breaking a bat. I remember, when I first came up, I would rather get hit by a pitch than break a bat, I'd have rather fallen flat on my butt, or pulled a George (Brett) and sprung some hemorrhoids. Bats weren't cheap, and when you're making the league minimum, you'd definitely rather lean into the pitch and take one for the on base percentage than break your bat. For every bat I broke, that was a nice steak I could be eating, and I love a good steak. Not to mention, then I would have to have a bat funeral, which was always an ordeal-"

    Wait a minute. Bat funeral?

    "Well yeah...." he continued with a sheepish grin, "I always had bat funerals. In Kansas City, me and Bo (Jackson) would bury a hell of a lot of bats. At one point in time my back yard had no grass left in it thanks to all the bats we had buried. For some reason, the bats did not encourage new foilage growth. They sure did help the hits keep coming though."

    Once again, the genius of Kevin Seitzer.

*

    Of course, the anecdotes are nice. They are fun playful reminders that even a professional hitter, and now hitting instructor is a human being. They do not however, explain what Kevin Seitzer is going to do to help the Diamondbacks as a team.

    "Help them as a team?", he retorted while lighting up with excitement, "I am a team player. Kevin Seitzer is a team player. I get the job done, bar none, hands down," he told me, speaking more and more rapidly. "I look at this way, I look at it as the Diamondbacks have hired me to lead their offense to the promised land, and I'm Noah. I'm going to strap on my sandals, and lead them through this desert. We are going to get there, and we are going to win. That's it. That's how I help this team. You know, they say you can lead a horse to water, but can't make him drink, well that's where I come in. I'm going to have the horses drinking, and I'll be damned if they don't like it."

    Small errors in his Biblical reference aside, I had to admire the man's enthusiasm.

    "I look at this job as, I will have it forever," he continued, "this job is eternally mine, as long as I do it well. I'm going to bust my butt to the degree that they will have no choice but to keep me on. We are going to succeed. Give me a number one offense, or give me a cooler full of light beer after the game."

    I also had to admire his flair for the dramatic. Hopefully, 'The Seitz' can bring some excitement, and drama to Chase Field this season - and maybe even  a number one offense.

*

"Cheesecake. I would go into that clubhouse, and there would be guys eating cheesecake. I love a good piece of cheesecake, but I never wanted to play on a cheesecake team, you know what I'm saying? There were a couple guys in that clubhouse, not to name any names, that had a cheesecake fetish. Well, I wanted to play on a polish sausage team, because I'm a grinder. I get out there, get dirty, well I did, and that's how I want my guys to play. We need to play the game the right way, and leave the cheesecake with the women and children. They can also have all the light beer. " - Kevin Seitzer on his time spent with the 1997 Cleveland Indians, and the approach he wants to see from his young players

in a row.

The game started well enough.

Greinke was super duper nasty. His line did him no justice, I was in the lower level and he was absolutely filthy. The 3 runs were soft, he deserved such a better fate.

Gathright looked good with the bunts, our singles based offense was clicking on every cylinder.

Then the ninth inning happened. Everybody in the ballpark expected a win. When the inning started, my friend asked me why Gload was in RF instead of Teahen. This disturbed me. Then they pulled Ramirez, who wasn't exactly getting pounded for Peralta.

Then the game was over. I have never attended a more crushing defeat in any sporting event, ever. You could literally feel the air being sucked out of the stadium in the ninth inning, you could hear the profanity in the stands. I left the game with a headache and just have to ask myself:

Has anything really changed?

Per Bob Dutton, @ kcstar.com:
Through the grapevine

The rumor mill is picking up. One has the Royals discussing a deal to send utilityman Esteban German to the Dodgers for right-handed pitchers Jonathan Meloan and Miguel Pinango.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals/story/542492.html

Meloan stats:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/John-Meloan.shtml

Pinango:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Miguel-Pinango.shtml

Meloan looks attractive based on his K-rate alone. I'd be pretty happy if GMDM could pull this trade off, I'm not seeing a negative.

I had a dream last night. Admittedly, I'm not one to dream. While most of the populace is in bed subconsciously thinking of the things that they most desire, I'm usually out like a light. Totally passed out. Incapable of any thought whatsoever, on any level.

Not last night. Last night, I had the best dream of all. It was a baseball dream. I was still living in Kansas City, and it was the beginning of February. Spring training had almost arrived. I turned on my laptop, and surfed over to KCRoyals.com. There was a press conference happening that day, a surprise press conference. The picture of a smiling Allard Baird jumped off the screen at me, and on cue, a queasy feeling in my stomach soon followed.

I turned on the radio. Of course, getting good reception was a problem - dreams are always filled with worthless details like this. Then I heard the unconvincing voice of the Royals puppet-master make his blockbuster announcement. "We've made a signing" he proclaimed, "of somebody with excellent pitch-ability, great stuff, and a professional make up. Your newest 2008 Kansas City Royal...Brett Tomko! (exclamation added.)". In my chair, I sat, and he continued to talk. Speech blurred together. Some jive about veteran presence, a proven arm to start on Opening Day, a dependable veteran dripping with grit at the front of our rotation so the "young talent" would have a professional to learn from. Plus, he said, the terms were reasonable - 2 years, 10 million cash dollars. After all, this team was much improved he went on, especially with the addition of Miguel Olivo batting fourth.

We were going to compete. We have a number one starter, a new catcher that can hit for power.I must of listened to him talk for too long. Jimmy Gobble was moving back to the rotation it was decided, to replace the burnt out and missing in action Zack Greinke. Mike Sweeney was resigned for another year to play first until "Billy Butler proves he can hit minor league pitching". Did I mention that we resigned Jeremy Affeldt to a 3 year, 15 million dollar deal to be our closer? Yes, we were going to win in 2008. How could we not. I must of listened to him talk for too long. In my dream, I was sure of it. All of it.

Then I woke up. Then... I realized it wasn't a dream. It was a nightmare. And only at this point, even after years of disappointment, blown leads, and wasted talent did I have my shocking moment of revelation. At this moment, I realized that the last 6 years of Royals baseball - have been a nightmare.

So apparently it is official, and Jose Guillen is a Royal.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3140604

That is, if this source is correct.

I will be pretty happy if this goes official. Seems to be a pretty fair deal as long as he can hit 20 HR's and knock in 90+ RBI's. Our lineup is so anemic this is a massive upgrade from last season.