SB Nation User Blog: slayor

Trey Hillman Carelessly Flings Another Rookie Under the Proverbial Bus

slayor — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 04:44:02 -0000

“One of Dusty’s best pitches is his changeup,” Hillman said. “He didn’t use it. He left a fastball out and over the plate.”

- Kansascity.com

Yes, ladies and gentlemen. You have read that quote correctly. But wait a minute, let's go back. Dusty Hughes, a rookie junk balling LHP, was brought into the game to face Joe Mauer the preceding inning. He retired the soon to be MVP on a 65mph sidearm curveball. He then retired the lead-off hitter (another LHB) to start off the next inning. He started this AB off by falling behind 3-0 throwing offspeed pitches in the dirt. Pitching coach Bob McClure had to intervene to make a come back to 3-2 in the count possible - an intervention that should-be Hall of Fame pitcher Bert Blyleven speculated on the Fox telecast most likely had to do with imploring Dusty to use his fastball. Sure enough, he came back with two fastballs to fill the count out at 3-2 before throwing a slider for the out.

For reasons unbeknownst to the baseball world in general, Royals manager / strategist / luminary Trey Hillman determined it would now be a good idea to leave Dusty in to face the right handed hitting, home run machine that has been Michael Cuddyer. With the game on the line. With the multi-year multi-million dollar right-handed relief pitcher Juan Cruz standing in the bullpen ready to go.

Obviously, this did not go well. Dusty fell behind in the count 2-0, throwing two pitches that appeared to be offspeed well out of the zone. He then served up a 'get me over' fastball to get himself back into the count - a fastball which was promptly blasted off into the left field seats with a force so tremendous that before poor Dusty could turn around to look, some obnoxious Twins fan was already cradling the ball like it was the first born child of Joe Mauer.

So back to what Trey Hillman saw. He saw Dusty Hughes, a rookie, pitching in the seventh major league game of his career, throw a fastball to try to get back into a count after being admonished by his pitching coach to do just that. Of course, the fastball got crushed - and all Trey could say in the postgame was... You should have thrown a changeup. That stupid Dusty Hughes, he just should have used his changeup - after all, it is one of his better pitches.

Now, why didn't he think of that?

Trey Hillman. Winning his players over. Sticking up for them, telling it how it really is.

Zack Greinke, 1 on 1 With Bob Dutton

slayor — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 05:17:57 -0000

Zack Greinke, 1 on 1 With Bob Dutton

I think the best part of this interview, is when he is asked what's on his Ipod and the first song he lists is Only God Knows by Kid Rock. The lyrics to the first verse:

I've been sittin here
Tryin to find myself
I get behind myself
I need to rewind myself
Lookin for the payback
Listen for the playback
They say that every man bleeds just like me
And I feel like number one
Yet I'm last in line
I watch my youngest son
And it helps to pass the time
I take too many pills it helps to ease the pain
I made a couple of dollar bills, but still I feel the same
Everybody knows my name
They say it way out loud
A lot of folks fuck with me
It's hard to hang out in crowds
I guess that's the price you pay
To be some big shot like I am
Out strecthed hands and one night stands
Still I can't find love

Just....yep, that's Zack Greinke. Great interview.

Just for fun: The pitches Zack used

slayor — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 07:42:48 -0000

I compiled this by going through gameday manually and looking at each pitch, the automated pitch classification is very poor.

Zack threw:

117 total pitches:

11 changeups (9.4%)
19 curveballs (16.2%) - at velocities from 68mph to 79mph. The two curveballs he didn't throw in that range: 71, and 72mph.
23 sliders (19.7%)
64 fastballs (54.7%)

So basically, he was throwing an offspeed pitch very nearly every other pitchc, that was going to be somewhere between 68 and 90 mph.

I just found this fascinating. That is all. I apologize for blatant mistakes in advance, it is almost 3am.

Zack Greinke: Fastball Velocity by Start

slayor — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 04:50:49 -0000

Zack Greinke: Fastball Velocity by Start

Rany @ the K - Saturday night meetup

slayor — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 03:58:39 -0000

Rany @ the K - Saturday night meetup

I think I'm going to try to go, depending on how tomorrow goes.

For Trade: Julio Lugo, all expenses paid

slayor — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 03:02:53 -0000

For Trade: Julio Lugo, all expenses paid

Good thing the Royals went ahead and acquired Betancourt - wouldn't want a shortstop that could get on base, for free.

Jose Guillen: One of the best throws ever.

slayor — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 07:22:12 -0000

Jose Guillen: One of the best throws ever.

A little throwback to jogui's days in a pirates uni.

When did Zack Greinke get so awesome?

slayor — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 08:13:44 -0000

When did Zack Greinke get so awesome? I was thinking about this today. Zack Greinke had a great year last year, but it was nothing close to the way he has started this season. Which left me asking, at what point last year did he start to put it all together? When did the switch get hit? To the numbers....

(WARNING: What you are about to read is derived from extremely small sample sizes: ONE PLUS SEASON! I am not attempting to make conclusions, or predict future performance, but rather lay out the past 1+ year of Zack Greinke's career in an easy to follow manner.)

Okay. Let's start where Greinke restarted, as a starter: 2008. He pitched a couple games in 2007 toward the end of the season, but I'm going to disregard those as he was just getting his feet wet in the rotation again.

If you look at Greinke's 2008 season, from the start to May 28, he posted a 2.88 ERA. However, his peripherals weren't as strong as they could have been:

From April 3, 2008 to May 28, 2008

11 GS
75 IP
2.88 ERA
1.2 WHIP
71 hits (8.52 H/9)
19 BB (2.28 BB/9)
53 SO (6.36 K/9. 2.79/1 K/BB)
7 HR (.84 HR/9)
19% LD
1.04 GB

Certainly these are impressive numbers, but towards the middle of the season Greinke hit a bump. This rough stretch started with a four home run shellacking by the Chicago White Sox, and during it Greinke posted the worst 10 start stretch of his career since the season that forced him to take a year away from baseball to regain his sanity. The numbers:

From June 3rd, 2008 to July 23, 2008

10 GS
58 IP
5.59 ERA
1.54 WHIP
67 H (10.40 H/9)
22 BB (3.41 BB/9)
61 SO (9.47 K/9, 2.77/1 K/BB)
11 HR (1.71 HR/9)
19% LD
1.20 GB

Whoa. Damn. There are some really ugly numbers in there - outside of the K/9, those are bad. The HR/9 is especially, Jeff-Suppan-starting-every-game-in-Philly bad. Brett-Myers-losing-another-3MPH-of-velocity bad. So the question is, WTF happened? Basically, from my own non expert analysis, Greinke got unlucky, and when you're putting a lot of guys on base, you can't really afford to get unlucky.

Giving up 11 homers in 58 innings is hard... unless your name is Kyle Farnsworth. Line drive percentage stayed the same, ground balls actually went up slightly (depending on who's GB/FB numbers you use - I used Fangraphs, BR disagrees). But, K's went up - as did walks, and balls soaring out of the ballpark.

I don't have the pitch F/X data because I'm not smart enough to manipulate it, but I am curious to see if the pitch mix changed here or what. Either way: big time jump in strikeouts, big time jump in walks.Interesting. This is the point in the season where Zack turned into a bonafide power pitcher as a starter. A power pitcher that was putting too many guys on base, and serving up some serious bombs.

Obviously he wasn't going to give up that many HR's for the rest of the season, but more importantly, he had to refine his control. So, Zack did what he does best - bounce back. The rebound started July 28, 2008 and has continued to this day. Suddenly, Zack Greinke started pitching really well. Really, really well. Like, "suddenly I can throw all my pitches for strikes and nobody can hit them" well.

How did he do it? Well... it has been a combination of throwing with the command he showed in his first 11 starts, joined with the strikeout rate of his next 9. Which has given us his last 15:

From July 28 2008 - April 24 2009

15 GS
98.1 IP
1.65 ERA
1.06 WHIP
83 hits (7.6 H/9)
21 walks (1.93 BB/9)
105 K (9.64 K/9, 5/1 K/BB)
3 HR (.28 HR/9)
1.32 GB
~23% LD (not exactly sure, don't have time to calculate it exactly - if somebody wants to figure it out for me, that'd be sweet)

*So just for fun, what would those rate stats look like projected over the 34 starts Johan Santana got last year?

34 GS
222 IP / 187 H
238 K / 48 BB

Okay, here we go. Those are some serious numbers. Groundball rate continues to rise (yay!), strikeout rate stays consistent with what he cranked it up to in that poor stretch of games, but check out the walk numbers. Anytime you are posting >9 K/9 and <2 BB/9, you are entering Johan Santana territory. Another thing worth pointing out is that while he has not allowed many hits, it is not an unsustainable number. The very low WHIP is very much the product of a very low walk rate. The one part of this that screams out "LUCKY" is the home runs allowed, which obviously is not going to remain that low. However, even with regression to the mean in the % of flyballs leaving the yard, these are excellent numbers.

Yes, the sample size is small. Yes, we're only 4 games into the season. Still, I think this is a fairly interesting look into the continued evolution of Zack Greinke. If you need a reason to feel happy about the future of the Royals, in the wake of Gordon and Soria being injured, Kyle Davies getting pummeled back to early 2008, Sydney Ponson starting today, Horacio Ramirez and Tony Pena Jr both occupying spots on the 25-man... Just look at those last 98 IP.

Oh man.

"That's hot." - Paris Hilton

The Royals are just 6-3 when leading after seven innings.

slayor — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 22:38:04 -0000

The Royals are just 6-3 when leading after seven innings.

kansascity.com

Ross Gload Bats Cleanup For Marlins

slayor — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 23:11:16 -0000

Ross Gload Bats Cleanup For Marlins

Bonifacio, 3B
Baker, C
Ramirez, SS
Gload, 1B
Uggla, 2B...