I was looking over the performance of the Twins various starting pitchers over the last few years, and I think that Blackburn is seriously under-rated by this site. I recognize that the complaints about his contract related to the fact that they didn't NEED to lock him up, but at the end of the day, I think he's been incredibly valuable.

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As the community has grown, the sheer amount of content has become more difficult to navigate. I have a couple of ideas below for improving the site, and I suspect that other people might have better ones.

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I was really surprised at the price the Yankees paid for Andruw Jones. It made me think the Twins should have been bidding. I have some stats, per fangraphs, below.

Jones (RH)

Career lines .256/.338/.488, I focus on .338 OBP, .231 ISO, wOBA of .353

2010 lines .230/.341/.486, focusing on .341 OBP, .255 ISO, wOBA of .364.

Bill James projects 2011 wOBA at .339, which is in line with 2009, higher than '07-'08, and lower than the rest of his career, basically, so a reasonable guess to me.

UZR/150: 2.2 in 2010 was the worst of his career. 18.7 for his career, though you would expect that to be declining quickly. He can play any position in the OF.

Kubel (LH)

Career lines .271/.335/.463, I focus on .335 OBP, .192 ISO, wOBA of .343

2010 lines .249/.323/.427, focusing on .323 OBP, .178 ISO, wOBA of .326.

Bill James projects 2011 wOBA at .364, which seems optimistic to me (though that depends on what % of his PAs come against LHP).

UZR/150: Around -18. Awful!!!!

To me, Jones looks like the preferable hitter. More importantly, he would be a great platoon for Thome/Kubel, and a good bench bat to have. He would also improve our OF defense, and be a backup CF if Span goes down. At $2-3 million, I think it would have been a great deal.

Lastly, if Morneau was injured again, Then Cuddyer goes to 1B, Jones to the OF, and our lineup looks a lot better, in my opinion.

Everyone expects our outfield defense to be pretty horrible. Even though we have a bunch of total homers in this community, we've all come together on this point. So........ I'm going to politely disagree. Ok only a little.

First, I think our defense is going to be bad, as in below average. But, I think our predictions might be a bit too dire. First, as someone pointed out, corner outfield is just low on most priority lists (not negligible, just not a top concern). As Joe Posnanski said "He plays good defense in left field which is a bit like being a punter who who can tackle — handy, but mostly beside the point".

Secondly, I'm going with my guy, and saying that the stats are missing something. I don't use a stopwatch to clock Span, and I don't have the playing/coaching experience to be able to read the quality of his positioning and jumps. But he looks fast (really fast). He hit a triple at yankee stadium a couple of years ago, and the people around me couldn't believe how quickly he got around the bases. I have the same reaction watching him run in the outfield.

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This purpose of this post is to start a more detailed level of discussion about the twins pitching prospects. I think it is timely, since we are currently ranking prospects.

When most people talk prospects, two main things get thrown around, their "ceiling", and their success at various levels (often combined with their age). These are things that we can all find online, but what I have trouble understanding is their "stuff". I can watch young MLB pitchers, and I can determine for myself that they have power, they have a great curveball, how their control is, how many pitches they can throw comfortably, etc. But I can't get that on prospects (at least not without a subscription).

I think a great example is Blackburn. His numbers were fantastic, but without watching him, you couldn't tell what kind of pitcher he was. Was he a guy with #1 pitcher stuff? Was he a guy who was just developmentally ahead of his level (really good breaking balls)? Did he have power? Could he pick pinpoint spots? Was he just fooling AA'ers with a good breaking ball that they didn't know, that MLB'ers would crush? Once you saw him pitch live, you got a better sense. He has an array of fastballs, that sit in the (very) low 90's, but have a lot of movement, and different kinds of movement. He doesn't have pinpoint control (no Maddux), but he does move around the strike zone. His breaking balls aren't great, but it means that his arsenal is large enough that he is hard to read. This told me that his potential was up to a #2 pitcher, he was near a sure thing to hold a spot in MLB rotations long term (i.e. his floor was a #4-#5), and he could probably handle a lot of innings. Where he finished would depend on whether he could mix his pitches well enough to keep hitters adjusting to his movement, or whether they would figure out which pitches to sit on.

Some of the people on this board know a lot more about the prospects than I (and many of the rest of us) do. I'd like people to start throwing out what they know, for everyone to read and discuss. For instance, which pitchers are doing really well at some level because they have a breaking ball that hitters at that level don't know, and which have truly above average, MLB caliber stuff. Ideally I'd like to hear the following, if people know:

(1) Fastball - velocity and movement. Is this a minor league fastball, a major league fastball, or a great fastball?

(2) Assortment of pitches - how many pitches can they throw with confidence. How many to they plan to be able to throw by the time they make the MLB?

(3) Which breaking pitches are average, +, and ++?

(4) Control, and ability to move around the zone (note that these are different. Maddux had both. Mariano Rivera has control, but doesn't use the whole plate. Blackburn uses the whole plate, but doesn't have that great touch to hit his exact spot).

(5) Flyball or ground-ball pitcher?

Hopefully this will add a little imagery to everyone's understanding of our pitching talent. I think that two often, we get caught up in player's ages and minor league numbers, and forget that the things you have to do to beat a A or AA hitter are not the same as the majors. For instance, based on numbers, I think Delaney would appear to be every bit the prospect that Slama is, if not stronger. However, from what I hear, Slama's stuff is rated much better.

That said, I have nothing to add, since I've never seen any of these guys play, and don't have any of the subscriptions - so please, to those in the know (Roger, Steve, Seth, CMath, and so many more), help us out.

I know that our focus is back to the Twins making the playoffs, which is exciting and all, but I'm still ready to plan ahead. I just think the Front Office should wait to do it until the offseason.

The following is my discussion of the Twins should improve themselves going forward, and it includes considering a pretty significant restructuring of the squat (i.e. the team should explore trading some top players)

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Bench Joe Mauer. That's right, I said it. The guy is hitting .260/.315/.420 since the all-star break. Sure, "small sample size" some people might say (especially me). Or, "no worries, he was bound to regress toward the mean, after mainting an OBP near .550 for so long", and "OPS of .735 is still fine for a catcher".

Hogwash! His legs are hurting. Evidence here:

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Excluding a couple of bad early starts on the road, Blackburn has looked really good this year. The question is, how valuable is this guy really going to be?

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Lets say you are in lower manhattan, NYC, and you need to get to LaGuardia for a flight in 30 minutes. On average, cab drivers in NY make it to LaGuardia in less than 30 minutes 27.5% of the time. Drivers percentages vary from 22.5% to 32.5%.

You have two cab drivers in front of you. Driver (A) has been driving for 10 years (5000 trips), and makes the trip in 30 minutes 30% of the time. Driver (B) just started driving, has done the trip 5 times, and made it in time twice. Which cab should you take?

The answer, plus a basic lesson in statistics, after the break.

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The Twins bought out Baker's next four years for $15.25 million, plus $9.25 m option for 2013. buys out 3 arbitration years, plus 1 of FA plus option.

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090307&content_id=3936016&vkey=news_min&fext=.jsp&c_id=min

Good way to spend money. Will they look to lock anyone else up? Mauer, Liriano, Young? The problem is that many of their players have time left before arbitration, so their isn't much need. Mauer and Liriano are the obvious choices, but also the expensive ones. That should be about 75 words.

I wonder if the Twins are still looking for infielders. There are a couple names still unsigned, which makes me think that their price tags have to be dropping. Even if they weren't worth it a couple of months ago, they may be worth a look as we get close to spring training. To me, the following stand out as worth a discussion:

Nomar Garciaparra - Could play some third, some first. Would push Brendan Harris into the utility/pinch hitter spot. Still, if he can play 75-100 games at 1B and 3B, provide lineup protection when he is in, and some pop off the bench when he sits, he would add some serious value to our offense. His defense isn't bad either. I would think he would probably play for a couple million, and only require a 1 year contract.

Shea Hillenbrand - It sounds like people don't like him, and he certainly had a terrible 2007, but at one time he could hit, and from the right side of the plate. He may be worthy of an invite to spring training, and let the coaches decide if he still has anything left.

Ty Wiggington - We've discussed him before, and he seemed a bit expensive based on his road splits. Still, if his price is falling, a two year deal wouldn't be the worst thing. Again, Harris probably gets pushed down a notch, and tolbert/macri lose their shot at the big league roster.

Ray Durham - I can't really see this happening, because it would demote Punto, but I'd be interested if he was available cheap. Based on his age, it pretty much comes down to whether he's willing to take a 1 year contract.

So - who wants to take a chance on one of these guys if the price is right? If so, please describe the right price.

After last winter's Santana trade talk, I am realizing that my baseball withdrawal will be more severe this winter than usual. So, in order to get some hot stove chatter going, I thought I'd bring up potential 3B players for next year. I know that we've talked about this before, but it is a conversation that will continue to dominate any Twins talk this winter, and I think I can add a couple of names to the discussion.

First, there are the players that we are all hearing about available for trade:

Beltre: Good defender, great power, not the greatest OBP, expensive, only a only a one year deal.

Kouzmanoff: Out machine, good power, decent defense, under team control for a couple more years (3 I think, maybe four). Good splits away from S.D.

Atkins: Being supplanted by a prospect. Good hitter all around, average defense, in arbitration, scary splits away from Denver.

We have talked about those guys a good amount. The question really seems to come down to how much Beltre would cost in trade, whether Atkins is a product of lower atmospheric pressure, and whether Kouzmanoff is a product of a gigantic S.D. park. Since I don't know the answers to any of these, I'm not going to add anything else.

Then there are some free agent options:

Crede: Decent bat, back injury issues, good defense. Should be cheap and available for a short contract.

Blake: Good power, makes a lot of outs. Will want 3 years, and a respectable salary, 35 yrs old, Type B FA. I'm actually unsure about his defense (I really have no idea). I've seen some good plays, but that doesn't mean much, and defense definitely declines with age.

We've also discussed these in the past, and it comes down to how much to spend, and how much to expect based on age/injury. I'm not fond of either of these guys, but if you disagree, then convince me. I'm all ears.

There are some internal options:

Harris: Average bat, some (minimal) power. Nothing special on defense, but doesn't seem as much of a liability at 3B as at 2B.

Buscher: Solid bat, some power, not much defense, lefthanded.

Tolbert: Good defense, no power. Maybe some on-base skills, definitely fast.

Hughes/Valencia: Young, questionable defense.

Cuddyer: Didn't like 3B a couple of years ago.

Basically, these are the develop from within options. I see a Harris/Buscher/Tolbert platoon as likely, and hard to object to, if other options are too expensive. These are guys that you want on your roster. If they are there, Tolbert gives you a good glove option at many positions, Harris and Buscher give you flexibility off the bench around the infield while having decent bats. The question is whether you can get enough offense out of this group for 600 plate appearances at 3B. Cuddyer is a great option, unless his hitting is likely to suffer from the difficulties in adjusting to 3B. This was the argument for his breakout in 2006.

There are a couple of people that we haven't really discussed much that I think are worth a look:

Shea Hillenbrand: Good power, some clubhouse problems. Should be very cheap. Free agent.

Aubrey Huff: 32 yrs old, lots of power. At 1B now, but used to play 3B. I don't know anything about his defense. He is under contract for $8m (Orioles) in 2009, then is a FA. Lefthanded.

Brandon Wood: Top angels prospect. Big Bat (minor league ISO of .255), plays 3B and SS, played poorly in first taste of majors.

Andy LaRoche: Pittsburgh Pirates prospect, acquired in Manny 3-way trade this fall. ML service = .56. Some power, good OBP in minors.

I think that Hillenbrand is a really good FA option. He gets a contract, he comes in to play every day, and if it doesn't work out, he gets cut and we fall back on internal options. The team may be afraid to try another in the vein of Bautista/Lamb, but if they go the cheap FA route, Hillenbrand is the best bet, I think. Good bat, from 2002 until a mid year 2006 trade. He was basicall a .300/.340/.450 hitter, from the right side of the plate. Huff I suggest because he is such a big bat, and you have to assume that the Orioles would be open to trading anyone for prospects. The fact that he is left-handed, and has stark RHP/LHP splits means that he probably isn't a good candiate. I present Brandon Wood and Andy LaRoche as the path that I would really like the Twins to take. While Delmon Young hasn't yet been the player we hoped for, I really liked the idea of that trade. What the Twins need is a young, cheapgood bat at 3B. We are hoping that one of our prospects will be ready in another year or two, but why not just trade for exactly that? Go around the league, and ask teams what it would take to swap top prospects. This all comes down to costs, but I imagine Brandon Wood being available for something like Slowey and Hughes, or Blackburn and Revere. Maybe that is too much to pay, and maybe I'm mis-judging the cost, but that's the question.

Ignoring cost ($ and players), my wish list is as follows: Wood, LaRoche, Beltre, Hillenbrand, Kouzmanoff, internal options. What do other people think? I know that you can't ignore cost, so I'm also curious what people think might be feasible.

For instance, would you trade Slowey straight up for Wood? Would you trade Someone like Hicks, Angel Morales, Valencia, etc with a good pitching prospect for any 3B prospects (Wood, LaRoche, Ian Stewart etc.).

What other players should be added to this list? What players' characterizations do you disagree with (especially defense)?

Interesting reference in Kelly Theisers article on the draft.

"Former scouting director Mike Radcliff, who is currently the vice president of player personnel, has indicated that the Twins feel there will be a shift in the game in coming years, focusing more on athletic, speedy players rather than the bulked-up power hitters seen during the "boom or bust" days of the past 10-15 years. The Twins have tried to adjust their thinking to that when obtaining players, and perhaps center fielder Carlos Gomez is one of the best examples of that trend."

I find this to be a very interesting perspective. The Twins seem to have made their own "moneyball" assessment that power hitters are overvalued in the post-steroid era. They certainly have loaded their minor league system with singles and doubles hitters who can run.

While I'm dissappointed they haven't picked up more big bats in the infield or at the corner outfield positions, I do tend to like their logic. These players are cheaper, and don't have the same risk associated power hitters who can't get the ball to the seats.

I'm just worried that the Twins are overloaded on talent in CF. While I understand the "take the best player" approach, it is extemely difficult to trade good prospects for other good prospects. If Gomez sticks in CF for a couple of years, and they don't get rid of Span, there is a real jam in giving other CF opportunities to improve at higher levels. The Twins need to seriously start looking at prospect only trades. How do they swap a Span/Revere/Martin for a 3B/SS with similar potential. The same is true for pitchers. While most of us respect the Twins patient approach with pitching, at some point they need to move these guys up. That means trading away from their strength.

I assume the problem is that if you call up a team and say "we want to trade you one of our better prospects for one of your's" the other team is going to get nervous that they're being sold a lemon.

I wish Slowey had gotten the shutout, so this post wouldn't sound affected by the run he gave up.

Gardenhire shouldn't have left Slowey in the game for the 9th, and possibly even the 8th. In light of the low pitch count, and especially the heavy innings the bullpen got in this series, I understand the 8th inning, but the 9th was a mistake. This is a pitcher that has been injured, and isn't as "stretched out" as other major leaguers. He was clearly already getting tired, as his fastball was registering 89-90 in the 8th and 9th. While he still pitched fine tonight, this will catch up to him in the next start. While he only threw 101 pitches, remember that he threw an extra 8 warm-up pitches for each extra inning. Say thats an extra 15-25 pitches, and that is a lot.

I think they should have put Rincon in. He isn't real dependable right now, so this was the perfect outing.

Different issue: Does anyone who understands good baseball technique have any insight on Kubel's swing. It looks to me like he is opening up his front hip really early, especially against left-handers. Presumably, this is because he is trying to pull the ball. He should be staying back, and pulling the ball by getting the bat-head out in front, and hitting it the other way on the pitches he is late to. Opening up, as I understand it, means that any opposite field hits will have no power, and a lot of the powerful hits will be foul. I'm no expert though, and I'd love to hear someone else's analysis.

I didn't watch the game tonight, so I don't know how the at-bats looked, but I did see the box score. Combined 1 for 8 with 4 strikeouts. I have high hopes for both players (less so for Casilla), but I think they should be forced to watch each other's at-bats closely, and go through tape together. I'm real worried that our future 1-2 are a pair of strikeouts in a row every other time.

What do we think of Casilla? I think a lot of people were pretty high on him a year ago, but I'm somewhat concerned now. He hasn't shown much ability to hit MLB or AAA pitching, and he is still erratic in the field. Obviously we all want to have a high level, high ceiling middle infield prospect, but I'm just not sure he's it. I think he's just the best we've got.

Thoughts?

"The first month, I struck out 24 times; I can get that to 10 [per month]," he said. "That's what I want to do. When I get on base, I change the game."

Said Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra: "That's good he's talking about it. That shows me he's getting it. ... We've been on him about cutting down his swing and trying to keep his feet underneath him."

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/18551434.html

I've been complaining for a while that Gomez looks terrible in the batter's box, and that it was ludicrous of the team to be supporting this aggressive approach (wild swings, terrible balance, nearly jumping mid-swing). It is now my responsibility to own up to the fact that I wasn't giving management enough credit. Clearly they have been working on strikeouts and mechanics (keeping his feet underneath him). I guess this serves as a good reminder that just because someone said it for an interview, it doesn't mean that's their true opinion. Gardy was obviously just trying to show support for Gomez publicly, while working quietly behind the scenes on the areas of improvement.

Maybe this means that he doesn't really like getting Punto in their whenever he can.

If we trade Santana for Melky, Ellsbury or Crisp, its pretty clear that to me that they will start in CF. It is less clear what happens if we trade for Gomez or, in some crazy change, don't trade Santana.

The Twins are much more cautious with their prospects than the Mets, and it seems to work. Gardenhire has also proven to be uncomfortable with very young players. Will/should the Twins start Gomez in AAA if he doesn't have a great spring? He has not yet shown that he can hit in the show or even dominate in the Minors.

2006 (age 20): AA 430 AB, .281/.349/.423 41 SB
2007 (21):     AAA 140 AB, .286/.363/.414 17 SB
                     MLB 125 AB, .232/.288/.394 12 SB

So he can clearly burn on the basepaths, and even seems to have a decent ability to draw walks. I realize that he will be another year older, with the experience that comes along, but if he had been in the Twins system the whole time, I would be sure that he would be at AAA until at least the all-star game.

What should the Twins do? I don't know if anyone will agree with me, but I propose the following, at least for discussion purposes. The Twins put Gomez at AAA (unless he has a spectacular spring) and start Pridie in CF. Pridie is not going to be a strength, but solid defense would be enough for me. He and Everett would be our only two weak spots in the lineup, which is an improvement over last year, and we have better pinch hitters. At the all-star break we swap the two. Gomez gets 80 games of practice/instruction, and they are probably less concerned about damaging Pridie by bringing him along too quickly. Any thougths?

Other options:
1.Try to have Monroe or Young play CF for half a year.
2. Sign Lofton or Patterson. I like the idea of Patterson, but I doubt he and the twins could agree on length. We only need him for 1 year.
3. Trade for Crisp - which prospect(s) would get it done?
4. Start Gomez from the beginning. Expectations from fans may demand this anyway, and Gomez might get upset if he gets "demoted".
5. Put Punto or Casilla there. Casilla has the speed to cover some ground, and Gardy loves playinig Punto.
6. Other?

Santana - Heart Attack
Morneau - Concussion
30 year Extension to Metrodome lease, Pawlenty vetoes new stadium plans,
We traded to get Castro back. Kubel's ACLs (both) torn again, Matthew Lecroy our opening day catcher, Bartlett/Gardy fight, Bartlett back to AAA for maturity

or better yet:
Silva - In Starting Rotation

April Fools

This is a topic that has been mentioned, but is rarely discussed in anything more than a reference. I think that we should trade Castillo. I like him a lot as a player, but I don't think he is the right fit for our team. He is another slap hitter (we have like 20). He is relatively expensive ($6M at second base). He also has bad knees, which means he wears out over the course of the season, and probably shouldn't be playing on turf.

I think that trading him, we could put punto at 2nd base (they gave us about the same hitting for the season, Punto was better June on). Then Punto is an ideal player in the twin system. A relatively in expensive, slap hitting, slick fielding middle infielder. We can trade Castillo for a pitcher or a 3rd baseman (or even a good prospect, and use freed money for one of the two).

The big question is who leads off? I suspect that Gardy won't want Bartlett to lead off out of fear for his sense of pressure. So maybe Punto leads off (No one seems to worried about his confidence changing his play). Bartlett could hit two.

Or if Bartlett leads off, and Kubel looks like the player we hope for, maybe its

Bartlett
Kubel
Mauer
Cuddyer/RH 3B
Morneau

Thoughts?

I finally created an account out of outrage at Batista batting 4.

First: I was happy that we signed Batista, a cheap home run hitter. But, he may never, I repeat, absolutely not, bat higher than 6, and probably 7. Logic as follows:

At the top of the order you have people who get on base. So your three and four hitters, should the most chances to hit with runners on base. Their job is to keep the inning alive. They often get rbi's if they do, but that is actually a secondary benefit. Maximizing hitters in an inning maximizes run producing opportunities. If the 3 hitter is OBP and 5 hitter is Power, there is a better chance that they both get to hit in the inning.

Everyone wants a HR when two guys are on base, but with 0 or 1 outs, who cares. A single might score the guy, but it definitely creates an extra chance down the order. The BA w/RISP is a more descriptive stat when you consider that it not only leads to his rbi's, but also to RISP chances for people below him. The 3 hitter may not bring them all home at once, but if they both get a chance to hit, more runs will be scored. With 2-outs, a HR does much more damage, since in baseball, the guy below you will probably end the inning 7 out of 10 times.

Which leads to protection:
Just to be clear, let me draw protection as follows: With a power hitter lurking, a hitter sees better pitches, because no one wants to pitch to a power hitter with runners on. This effect increases as outs increase, as described above.

If the three hitter is OBP and the 5 hitter is poweer

Batista actually does provide protection for the middle of the lineup. So I say, if we don't want white hitting 4 (which i'm actually comfortable with), then put
4 Hunter
5 White
6 Morneau
7 Batista

That way White gets some nice pitches, a chance to correct his swing on some meatballs. They'll pitch nice to him with people on, because they definitely won't want to give Morneau or Batista two-out opportunities.