According to NYRoyal/Scott McKinney's analysis, Jesus Montero has about a 40% chance to bust (less than 1.5WAR per cost-controlled season) and a 40% chance to be superior (2.5WAR or more per cost controlled season).  Since Soria has averaged about 2 FWAR per season in his 4 seasons with the Royals, that means there is about a 40% chance that Montero will be worth significantly less than Soria for the next 6 years, a 40% chance that he will be worth significantly more, and about a 20% chance that he will be worth the same amount.

Does this change the way you would think about a straight-up Soria for Montero trade?  This is not a question about a log-jam at first or the over-valuing of closers.  It is about value according to FWAR and whether you are willing to trade fairly sure value in Soria for the 40% chance of significantly greater value in Montero and the 60% chance that Montero will equal or exceed Soria's value.

I was looking at Fangraphs front page and noticed that Joakim Soria leads all ML relievers in WPA.  After a little looking, I noticed that he was 5th among all pitchers in WPA.  My question is, what is the value of WPA?  More after the jump.

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I think I remember reading somewhere that, according to WAR, a team with 25 replacement level players would be expected to win 42 games (I can't find the link now, correct me if I am wrong).  That means that a team with 25 average players on it (2 WAR apiece) would be expected to win 92 games.  Is this right?  If so, I think it might change my view of the value of an average player.  More thoughts after the jump.

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