It's fun to give predictions about how good or bad draft picks will be, based on having watched them in college or on game tape, or by what we've heard babbled by Mike Mayock or read on Walter Football. I'll admit I've committed my share of ticking folks off by making comments about the future of players that I don't understand why we picked. It's time to fess up... I have no clue. But neither do you. The brightest and dumbest, and most and least informed among us have something in common... We don't have a crystal ball or flux capacitor to peek into the future to see what these players will become. And while common sense suggests Luke Kuechly is far more likely to be a ProBowler than DJ Campbell, it's totally plausible that Kuechly could be the next Dan Morgan, and Joe Adams the next Steve Smith.

To prove just how clueless we are, check out the comments in this CSR post from this time last year. It's pretty funny. We seemed to be very uncertain about the future of our new 1st overall QB, but seem to think DT had just become a position of strength. I even declared Pilares the "steal of the draft".

However we can gain a slightly more accurate perspective not by just looking at the players themselves, but by examining the historical odds of how Hurney's draft picks have panned out in the past. I'll call this strategy "Draft Freakonomics", based on the popular book by Stephen Dubner, that uses statistics to explain anything and everything.

If you're unfamiliar with Freakonomics, here's a clip by Stephen Dubner on Cam Newton from last year...

What I've attempted to do is to break the Carolina Panthers draft picks under Marty Hurney's watch, into 3 categories... Pro Bowlers, Solid Starters, and Borderline Starters/Backups. The first category is objective, they've either been to the Pro Bowl or not. The other 2 categories are more subjective, but more or less make the same point. Any player who didn't pan out for whatever reason was excluded. I also only used players drafted from 2003 to 2008, because the verdict is still too far out on players like LaFell, Gettis or Sherrod Martin. I then crunched some percentages to try and determine the odds of this year's draft class producing Pro Bowlers, solid starters, decent backups and flat out duds.

So, on to the analysis, after the jump...

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Bear with me for a moment as I promise that this will end on a positive note. As you all know I've been critical of signing Mike Tolbert. And this is for good reason… Carolina already had 2 great running backs. That’s one more than most teams and 2 more than some. We just paid one of those running backs 20 million guaranteed, with the other (potentially better RB) needing a new contract next season. This is too much money being tied up in a position that is becoming a dime a dozen in the NFL. Look at the market, Tolbert and Peyton Hillis both will average only 2.5 million/year, and good backs like Michael Bush and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are still on the market. Even if Stewart walked next year, the market is flooded with good backup RBs that we could pick up for cheap.

And then there’s the argument that Hurney listed him as a FullBack. With Tolbert already on the roster and a slew of good RB’s it makes sense to initially list him as a FB. But is FB even a need? We signed a good FB last year and rarely even used him. Jerome Felton was on the field maybe 1 snap per game, if that? Jonathan Stewart was a lead blocker more than Felton. Chudkzinski is not going to change the 5th best running offense in the league, just because we signed Tolbert. FB is just not a huge part of this offense.

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If you're not familiar with the Freakonomics blog, it is written by Steven D Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, co-authors of the #1 best-seller book, Freakonomics.  These guys have developed a huge following due to their uncanny ability to "Reveal the hidden side of everything".

Here's the article:

Freakonomics: Five Things You Don’t Know About the NFL Labor Standoff

Let's get the first thing out of the way. The NFL IS a monopoly. A few here argued that it wasn't because we have league's like the arena league.  After reading this you'll understand why that is a ridiculous claim.

Secondly, from the article: "If I were a betting man, I’d say it’s likely there’ll be a lockout (Vegas andInTrade think so, too), but with so much money on the table, I’d be surprised if it lasted very long. There are 9 billion reasons to reach an agreement relatively soon. "

I highly recommend reading the entire article for yourself , and even following the blog.  These guys always have great commentary on a number of interesting topics.

Marty Hurney was on the Mac Attack today (2/4/2011) talking about a number of things we've been discussing. Couple points of interest...

He believes we likely have the answer to our QB position in house. He mentioned Claussen mostly, but said that both Claussen and Moore (an UFA) had the tools to be great NFL QBs. And that Claussen was a victim of unfortunate circumstances last year.

He mentioned the possibility of bringing in a vet QB to create competition. But he gave no indication that he was considering drafting a QB.

He still thinks Armanti Edwards will be well worth a 2nd round pick, and has no reservations about trading up for him. He said that Armanti is extremely intelligent, and has become very versatile at all 3 WR positions. Sounds like we'll be seeing more of him next year.

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Yes you read that correctly, Nick Fairley is valued at 25 TDs in 2011.  You are probably thinking "here comes another insane post by SouthTunnel.  That moron doesn't even know that Fairley plays on the side of the ball that prevents points, not scores them".  Well bare with me for a moment and let me break this down and explain...

The simple statistics that I have after the jump, reveal how preventing your opponent from scoring is just as valuable as scoring.  Either way points are on the table.  So the goal of an athletic competition is not to just score as many points as possible, but to score more than your opponent.  When evaluating your team you strive for balance, however you must also figure out which is easier for us to achieve... Scoring more points or preventing them?

As we have discussed ad nauseam on this site, the Carolina Panthers are only a few moves away from being one of the best defenses in the league.  Simply adding a couple subtle pieces would achieve this, IF we also pull the trigger on a monster DT like Nick Fairley.  In addition to his own sacks and tackles, Fairley would slide coverage away from our very promising defensive ends, making their jobs easier.  And this disruption along the line of scrimmage would slow down running backs and fluster quarterbacks, making our secondary and linebacker's jobs much easier.

But enough philosophy, let's look at the actual numbers after the jump...

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This should be fun!

AJ Green: The Perfect Receiver

With so much uncertainty regarding the top QBs in the draft, AJ Green is probably the safest offensive pick. He's also arguably the best talent in the entire draft. The guy will no doubt have ProBowl potential. And a combination of him and Smitty with a more experienced LaFell and Gettis, not to mention a strong group of running backs, would provide a ton of fire power in 2011. Unfortunately though, our QB dilemma would still remain.

Once AJ Green has established himself, I would love to see Smitty become more of a Wes Welker-like slot guy. Green provides the down field threat for him to easily make this transition. Then as Steve ages, he could become our reliable #3 vet, like Ricky Proehl was in 2003. Ideally he'd retire a Panther... The most accomplished Panther thus far.

That is until Green trumps him a few years later ;)

More highlights after the jump!

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The Panthers have stuck to a typical 4-3 defense at a time when many teams are moving to a 3-4 formation. However something that's really stuck out to me this pre-season is the occasional use of a 3-3-5 Nickel formation, especially on 3rd and long.  You can see an example of this in the first play of this video...

http://www.nfl.com/videos/carolina-panthers/09000d5d81a1786e/Panthers-vs-Titans-highlights

I knew the Panthers would drop a Linebacker on obvious pass plays.  But with our young D-line I never thought we'd be able to pull off a 3-3-5, because it requires you to get a pass rush with only 3 players.  Well as you can see from the video we CAN get a pass rush with only 3 guys!  Wow!  More below...

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http://www.nfl.com/videos/carolina-panthers/09000d5d81967e7a/Fantasy-preview-Panthers

They say that Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams are both solid 2nd round picks.  I think DeAngelo could be a bit higher, but he is splitting carries.  Stewart around the 4th round.  Matt Moore is their sleeper... Nice to hear somebody outside Panther-nation that knows the name and has confidence in him.

They also mention our receiver battle, and think LaFell will ultimately edge out Jarrett.  It appears LaFell is drawing fans from every direction.  Edwards even makes mention as a slot receiver... I'm not sure why anyone would touch him in fantasy, but we'll see.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/07/31/panthers.postcard/index.html

A few typos in this one, including stuff like "Beason, who has moved to strongside linebacker".  But over all King was very kind to the Panthers.  He says some very positive things about Brandon LaFell, Matt Moore, Mike Goodson, and even Claussen and Armanti, who I didn't think were having a great camp thus far.

Some interesting points:

He believes this is a team that can definitely score, but questions whether or not we can defend.  I think that echoes many of us here.

He says the coaches love LaFell... Not a good thing for Jarrett.  LaFell knows that #2 spot is up for grabs, and is looking very hungry.

He also mentions that Fox is very likely gone after this season, because Jerry is not willing to pay him the money he'll likely demand.  That sucks.

Charlotte use to be the a Pro-Basketball mecca until George Shinn took the team and split.  Charlotteans use to pack the old Tyvola stadium to watch a team that had no chance of even making the playoffs (early on at least).  Hornets apparel was a hot market in the Gran-ma-ma/Zoe days, even nationally.  As a kid I went to those games with my Father, and like many those our some of my first pro sports memories. However we were all crushed when the team left.  And this is why I believe so many people are having such a hard time supporting the Bobcats.

So for Jordan to SERIOUSLY resurrect Pro-basketball in this town, I propose he do the following:

Trade DJ, Diaw, Dampier and a whatever draft picks necessary for, Chris Paul, Emeka Okafor AND the "Hornets" brand.  I don't know if it's even possible to adda team brand to this sort of thing.  But how would this look to you?

2010/2011 Charlotte Hornets starting lineup

HC: Larry Brown (hall of fame)

PG: Chris Paul (all-star)

SG: Stephen Jackson (all-star potential)

SF: Gerald Wallace (all-star)

PF: Tyrus Thomas

C: Emeka Okafor

Pro Football Talk makes it blatantly obvious why attempting to draft a WR even in the 1st round is very risky.

The logic applies to all positions.  Why take a chance on a rookie who might never become anything other than a guy who once was a great college football player?  If the goal is to use the draft pick to get a good player, it makes more sense to use the draft pick on a player that we already know will be good.

The argument gets stronger for teams picking lower in a given round.  If Colts president Bill Polian thinks his offensive line needs an upgrade, he should present an offer sheet to Chargers left tackle Marcus McNeill.  Polian would get a quality linemen in exchange for the 31st and 93rd picks in the annual NFL crapshoot.

Since we have no 1st round pick, we'd either have to use future picks or trade a player where we have an abundance of talent.  Of course the Panther's don't seem to be showing any interest in competing for the top free agents.  And with the few unrestricted free agents available, a trade is looking more like our only option for acquiring proven talent.

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Steve Smith called in WFNZ on the Frank and Buck show to explain his comments regarding his wildly exaggerated comments to Jake on the sideline during the Philly debacle.  For those of you who missed it, Smith said to Jake "I never really liked you as a quarterback. But as a person, that's who I love. I love you as a person".  Panther fans chalked it up as a mere joke, trying to lighten the mood.  However many in the media ripped Steve for kicking his QB when he was already down.

When Steve explained his remarks I thought he would say it was simply a joke.  However his explanation shows that it wasn't just a joke, and actually had far deeper meaning than I ever imagined.

You can listen to the audio of Smith's interview at:
http://www.wfnz.com/The-Frank-and-Buck-Show/3797096

And here is an article from FanHouse.com regarding his explanation:
http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2009/09/19/carolinas-steve-smith-explains-his-jake-delhomme-pep-talk/

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Coaches Martz, Mora and Mooch discuss QB Jake Delhomme's 4 INT game against the Eagles...

http://www.nfl.com/videos/carolina-panthers/09000d5d812a01a4/Trouble-with-Delhomme

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Folks it looks like the Dan Morgan curse has reared it's ugly head again in 2009.  But first for those of you who are unfamiliar with the curse, here is a brief description and history...

By definition "The Dan Morgan Curse" is defined as: an appeal to some supernatural power to inflict injury upon a Carolina Panther team, player or position.  The curse is appropriately named after Dan Morgan the most injury ridden Panther player in recent history.  Morgan was selected in the 1st round of the 2001 draft, 11th overall.  The Panthers had big hopes for this 2004 Pro-Bowl linebacker.  However due to continuous injuries and concussions he never played more than 13 games in a season, and averaged only 8 games per year.

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Here's a cool article by the Wall Street Journal on how long it takes athletes to make $100,000.

According to the latest figures from the U.S. Census Bureau, it takes an average U.S. citizen a shade under four years to earn $100,000. Alex Rodriguez does it in six pitches.

Click here to read the article

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In Rich Eisen's own words, "Mike Mayock can evaluate NFL players like nobodies business".  So when asked who his best fantasy sleeper is, Mayock picked our very own Mike Goodson.  He claims Goodson is "a dominiative pocket rocket" and "a good football player who was a great steal".  You can hear his evaluation in the video below.  However you have to first sit through Rich's infatuation with his proclaimed "Touchdown Machine" aka DeAngelo Williams...

Check the video here

Also interesting he hints at Jonathan Stewart's injury claiming Goodson might get more touches than you think at running back.  More and more reports are getting me worried about Stewart, and increasing my admiration of DeAngelo's durability.  If JStew is out for any extended period this year then Goodson just might be a life saver... Let's just hope those strip drills in camp are working.

Primetime with the Packman on WFNZ was at practice today and interviewed a ton of players.  They have some of them on their website...

http://www.wfnz.com/Primetime-with-Packman/136218

More Player interviews on the Mac Attack...

http://www.wfnz.com/pages/139668.php

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This is inspired by a similar post on canalstreetchronicles.com (actually they seemed unbiased enough that I took most of their stuff and tweaked it).  Going through each position, here is a potential all star team from NFC South players.  And forgive me for some of the non-Panther nods... Gotta keep it real.

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