SB Nation User Blog: spakajewia

Why we were wrong

spakajewia — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:51:16 -0000

There were a number of prognostications on this site about which at-large teams would be chosen by which BCS bowls and for what reasons. There were extensive different outcomes analyzed, and as far as I can remember, almost none of them included TCU v. Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. And to the extent that we expected a Big11 team to go to the Orange Bowl, we thought PSU rather than Iowa would be the choice. Why were we wrong?

I think we were wrong because for the most part we made two incorrect assumptions: 1) the individual BCS bowl committees don't communicate with each other to make the best matchups; and 2) the number one driver for the BCS is short-term financial gain.

I think its clear now that the bowl games do talk to each other, and they do so because their number one driver is not immediate financial gain but rather the long-term viability and success (and long-term financial gain) of the BCS.

The conventional wisdom is that the Fiesta Bowl "took one for the team" by taking both undefeated mid-majors, despite the fact that it wasn't it their immediate financial interest to do so. Well, kind of.

First of all, the immediate financial interest of the bowl games is only concerned with ticket sales; and its likely that Boise State/TCU will still sell out the Fiesta Bowl, or at least come close enough. TV ad revenue was sold long-ago. If a bad match-up hurts TV ratings, it only impacts ad revenue--and through it the amount of money a network will pay the BCS to air a bowl game--in the future.

But the Fiesta Bowl, the Orange Bowl and the rest of the BCS are also keenly aware of the regular calls for a playoff system and realize that they need to balance their immediate profit motives and interest in high TV ratings with the long-term viability of the BCS system as we know it. If one of the two undefeated mid-major teams were not selected--and if Penn State was selected above an Iowa team that it had lost to in the regular season--there would have been plenty of reason to yell at the BCS again for being only interested in money and for refusing worthy teams of their night in the spotlight.

By picking the teams as they did, they helped guard themselves, as much as possible, from such criticism. They completely avoided the possibility of Iowa fans yelping by chosing the Hawkeyes over us. And they have now set up a situation in which it's likely that Florida beats Cincinatti and so you're left with two undefeated teams: the winner of the MNC, and a mid-major team that doesn't have a particularly compelling claim to the national championship because they played a weak in-conference schedule and only beat another mid-major team in their bowl game.

The BCS: crazy like a fox. Bastards.

Luck be a Lady Lion

spakajewia — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:17:55 -0000

I'm surprised to hear myself saying this, but I like that the big11 powers stopped night games in November. Something seems wholesome and right about playing the rivalry games tomorrow at noon and 3:30. I like night games in September as much as the next guy, but fundamentally, night games are the province of major championship and bowl games and regualr season big east, acc, and wac contests.

In case anyone didn't see the first one of these, I am just picking against the odds in this space. These picks do not represent actual bets that I made or will make. I often will use analysis here to place a wager or two on Saturday, but sometimes I also reverse course (particularly if I pick against PSU here) and end up betting the other way than I chose. And I regularly bet on games that I don't list here. In any event, one last chance to get north of .500 before the big11 season ends.

Ohio State -12 at MICHIGAN;Wikipedia tells me that if Ohio State wins, their players receive a "gold pants charm." Of course they do. T. Cryor is going to go off on scUM. OSU -12

Minnesota +10 at IOWA;Enjoy Floyd of Rosedale, Hawkeye fans; he sounds delicious. Iowa wins, but not by two scores; Goldy +10.

Wisconsin -7 at NORTHWESTERN; apparantly no trophy here...but nevertheless one of the more compelling games. I think its closer than a td. NW +7.

Purdue -3 at INDIANA; Apparently the old oaken bucket is named after a poem, which "exemplifies the feeling the people of Indiana have towards their home state." That makes me want to pick against both teams. Since I can't do that, I'll take the points. Your Daddy +3.

Penn State -3 at MICHIGAN STATE; the defining game of the season of the week for Penn State. I really hope we win, ~~but fear we won't. SPARTY +3.~~ and feel confident we will. If JoePa can still nail an onside kick; our special teams can dramatically improve in a week. Road whites -3.

California +7.5 at STANFORD; Who knew that the winner of this one got the "Stanford Axe?" I know that this is a hell of a rivalry and that there's plenty of timbering in northern Cali, but this axe sucks. And so does Cal. Stanford -7.5.

Connecticut +6 at NOTRE DAME; Why in the world are the Irish laying 6 against a solid Connecticut team? The Huskies put another nail in Weis' enormous coffin on senior day. Uconn +6.

Last week: 3-2 in big11; 2-0 in other games; 5-2 overall

Total: 16-19 in big11; 7-5 in other games; 23-24 overall

Luck be a Lady Lion

spakajewia — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:07:18 -0000

As far as I can tell, San Diego State at Minnesota is off the board. Apparently the days when the likes of Joe Gibbs, Marshall Faulk, and Brian Sipe used to don the Aztec uniform have given way to the days of Goldy impersonating Cortes.

Otherwise, there are a couple of sneaky-interesting big11 games this week: a battle for Illiniois between jNW and the Fightin injuns, and Purdue tries to sweep the state of Michigan.

Michigan +9 at Wisconsin You know how people explain where they're from in Michigan by pointing to their hand? I wish Michigan was a hand so it could slap itself. Wiscy -9.

Northwestern +5 at Illinois I'm making like Surfjan Stevens and feeling the Illinoise: Injuns -5.

Michigan State +3 at Purdue So vegas thinks these teams are even? Only one has Kirk Cousins...and this week, I say that's a good thing: Sparty +3.

Indiana +25 at Penn State Some discussion in Nitt Picks yesterday about this as a trap game...well, I'll walk right in. Indiana +25. Bonus: the over/under is 52, which seems as crazy as the line: Under 52.

Iowa +17 at Ohio State Reminiscent of last week's $uckeyes game, only uglier. OSU -17.

Notre Dame +6.5 at Pitt I'm heading back to the burgh homeland this weekend and attending this one tomorrow night. It seemed like a better game before last Saturday. Feels to me like a game Pitt will lose, though I think they're the better team. Maybe they win, but I doubt they cover. Fat Weis +6.5

Florida -17.5 at South Carolina The old ball coach against his alma mater...seems like the only chance for the gators to lose prior to the SEC championship game...here's hoping...Cocks (hehe) +17.5

Last week: 3-3 in the big11; 1-1 in other games: 4-4 overall

Total: 13-17 in the big11; 5-5 in other games; 18-22 overall

Luck be a Lady Lion

spakajewia — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:08:59 -0000

The best choice I made last week was not to boast about the fact that I'd gone 5-1 the previous week...because last week's 1-7 was just embarrassing. In each of the last two weekends, Iowa has covered on the last possible play--last play at MSU and, had Indiana tackled that guy on the final touchdown run, the Hawkeyes just kneel on it to end the game. That game almost killed my will to gamble...almost...

Even without the action, tomorrow is one of the days that make fall Saturdays special...enough entertaining/important games to keep you in the living room for a solid 8-11 hours, with the Nittany Lions playing a prominent role...

Wisconsin -10.5 at Indiana...I like this Hoosiers team, despite the fourth quarter FAIL, and I like the hook. Hoosiers +10.5

Western Michigan+20.5 at Michigan State...one of the lesser directional Michigan's, I believe...but still good enough to keep it tight with Sparty. WMU +20.5

Purdue +6 at Michigan...I can't believe Michigan is favored by almost a touchdown in this game; world's biggest drum +6

Illinois +7 at Minnesota...I can't just keep taking dogs, right? I like that new stadium in the twin cities too much: MINNESOTA -7

Northwestern +15.5 at Iowa...Kafka's back and the Wildcats have success at Kinnick...this game could make Northwestern's season. The craziest thing is I think I'm actually to put actually money against Iowa again...masochism +15.5

Ohio State +5 at Penn State...my "Penn State football" google news alert has been a buzz this week with stories about DC and Heisman contention. This is a defining game for his Penn State career/legacy. I think he plays his best game to date. Penn State has consistently gotten better this year; can't say the same thing about the $uckeyes. Just seems like our game to lose. Good guys -5

Louisiana State +7.5 at Alabama...I think we finally see some of these top teams start to hit the dust tomorrow...even if the Tigers doesn't win outright, though, I think they cover: LSU +7.5

Connecticut +17 at Cincinnati...Wouldn't surprise me at all for Connecticut to win this game; all four of their loses have been by four points or less...this one will be close: Huskies +17

Last week: 1-5 in the big11; 0-2 in other games; 1-7 overall

Total: 10-14 in the big11; 4-4 in other games; 14-18 overall

Luck be a Lady Lion

spakajewia — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:57:45 -0000

New Mexico State +44 at Ohio State

Apparently the Aggies are awful. I don't care; the %uckeyes aren't good enough to lay 44 points against anyone. nmsu +44

Purdue +7 at Wisconsin

One of the more intriguing big11 matchups of the week. I like the Badgers to cover at Camp Randall; just feels like they'll show up for this one. WISCY -7

Indiana +17.5 at Iowa

I remember the last time Iowa was favored by 17 and a half at home: when the Red Wolves of Arkansas State made things interesting in the fourth quarter. Same thing happens tomorrow. Hoosiers +17.5

Penn State -15 at Northwestern

Second straight game wearing the whites, not to mention playing in Evanston where we always have trouble. This game might not be close, but I still don't think we cover. NW +15

Michigan -7 at Illinois

The wolverines get to lick their wounds against the big11's whipping boy; I like the Harvard of Ypsilanti big: scUM -7

Michigan State -3.5 at Minnesota

Normally, aftter a game like last weekend's, Sparty folds. Same thing might happen here, if only Goldy didn't suck. MSU -3.5

Texas -8.5 at Okalahoma State

I don't know the big 12 that well, but I know that Texas ain't all that. They probably win, but not by more than a touchdown. OSU +8.5

Southern Cal -3 at Oregon

Pete Carrol loses road PAC 10 games to major underdogs. The Trojans get up for big games. They roll tomorrow: USC -3.

Last week: 4-1 in the big ten; 1-0 in other games; 5-1 overall

Total: 9-9 in the big ten; 4-2 in other games; 13-11 overall

Luck stopping messing with my picks

spakajewia — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:09:00 -0000

Rough one last week in this fanpost, which it's fair to say I'm not qualified to write--or at least no one should be listening to it. But I'm poised to break out this week...I think. In a kind-of meh weekend for college football--TCU at BYU is the only matchup with two ranked opponents--we get one of the best weekends of football in the big11. That's the beauty of Northwestern and Indiana playing each other--they don't play anyone else.

PURDUE -10.5 vs. Illinois

A smarter guy would stop picking Illinois to cover until they actually, you know, cover one line this year. I'm more persistent than smart: Injuns +10.5

NORTHWESTERN -5 vs. Indiana

Can I just bet on whether or not this matchup will be on the BTN each of the next five seasons? Daddy +5

OHIO STATE -16 vs. Minnesota

My first instinct was too take the gophers, but then I remembered that this is their second straight road game and Goldy's a pagan. The $uckeyes figure a way to score at least 20, which should be more than enough to cover. OSU -16

Penn State -4.5 at WHORE

The powers that be quoted 4.5, though Danny Sheridan has it at 4. It don't matter anyway; the real Darryl Clark stands up in the second half. The road whites -4.5

MICHIGAN STATE -1.5 vs. Iowa

Adios to Iowa's best start since 1985. Vegas knows what's up: SPARTY -1.5

NOTRE DAME -7.5 vs. Boston College

BC's won this game each of the last six years (I think) and ND got a backdoor cover last week. I don't know who's going to win, but it'll be by a touchdown or less. bc +7.5

Last week: 2-3 in the big ten; 0-1 in other games; 2-4 overall

Overall: 5-8 in the big ten; 3-2 in other games; 8-10 overall

Luck by a Lady Lion

spakajewia — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:00:34 -0000

All the Big 11 teams play each other this weekend, except Michigan who plays host to the 1-AA Hornets of Delaware State. Like last week's PSU game, that game is off the board. You know, I'm getting really tired of all of these 1-AA games; a school like Michigan, with all that football tradition and money, could never lose to a 1-AA team. Oh, wait...oh, what's that...oh, right, this:

Appalachian State Shocks The World

Ohio State -13.5 at PURDUE

The !uckeyes have covered healthy lines all year, and I don't see the world's biggest drum stopping them. OSU -13.5

Northwestern +14 at MICHIGAN STATE

I keep expecting Sparty to lose a game they should win, but (with the exception of ND) they haven't imploded yet. I think the Wildcats give 'em a scare: Northwestern +14

Iowa +2.5 at WISCONSIN

Vegas with a little disrespect for the Hawkeyes. Iowa wins this game because Ferentz is a better coach in every single way than Bielema. Iowa +2.5

Illinois -3.5 at Indiana

Illinois is winless against the spread this year. That can't keep happening, right? Illini -3.5

Minnesota +17.5 at Penn State

~~I think this weekend tells us a lot about how good this team is...we're pretty good: Penn State -17.5~~ On second thought, the snow keeps it close: Minnesota +17.5

University of Southern California -10 at NOTRE DAME

Close early but USC pulls away in the fourth quarter. I think the real play is the over (50), but I'll take USC -10.

Last week: 2-2 in the big ten; 1-1 in other games; 3-3 overall

Total: 3-5 in the big ten; 3-1 in other games; 6-6 overall

Luck be a Lady Lion

spakajewia — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 15:56:54 -0000

The Nittany Lions are off the board this week, but I'm gonna go ahead and say we win by 41, but feel deflated by watching Kevin Newsome struggle through the last quarter and a half.

I really like Michigan +8 and LSU +7.5. Everything else: meh.

Michigan State -4 at ILLINOIS

Sparty's got the big11 right where they want them. Not quite; Zook's coaching for his life. ILL +4

Miami +19 at NORTHWESTERN

Northwestern's not good enough to be a 19 point favorite, even if Wilbon's wearing a purple pocket square. Miami +19

Purdue +3.5 at MINNESOTA

I'm baffled, so I'll take the points. Purdue +3.5

Indiana +6.5 at VIRGINIA

I'm taking the Hoosiers again, mostly because I hate UVA (and their win last week says more about UNC than it does bout them). Indiana +6.5

Wisconsin +16 at OSU

These teams aren't 16 points apart on paper. But Tressel + the horseshoe will put it away early. OSU -16.

Michigan +8 at IOWA

Forcier's not as good as I think; Stanzi's not as good as you think. Ferentz plays to win by 3, not by 8. Michigan +8

Florida -7.5 at LSU

I can get LSU in the bayou, a touchdown and a hook? Yes, please. LSU +7.5

Georgia Tech +3 at FSU

Bet on death; bet against distraction. Tech +3.

Last week: 2-4 in the Big Ten; 2-0 in other games; 4-4 overall

Total: 2-4 in the Big Ten; 2-0 in other games; 4-4 overall

Luck be a Lady Lion

spakajewia — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:36:58 -0000

I've had this idea for a while now, and I'm finally going to do it. Each week (assuming anyone cares) I'll post the lines for every game involving a Big Ten team and pick a winner against the spread. At my discretion, I also may throw a couple of other games into the mix that I think are intriguing.

I've always been much better at gambling on the NFL than on college, mostly because the college games are so diverse. I always tell myself that if I just focus on the Big Ten, I should be ahead of the curve, but it still hasn't happened. Maybe this year.

I'm using Danny Sheridan's line from the Friday USA Today; if for whatever reason the paper doesn't have the line for a big ten game, I'll grab it from sundaystrategy.com (because I don't want to check my online gambling account at work.)

Michigan +3.5 at MSU

This line seems crazy to me, even though I do think Sparty's going to show up this week and look a hell of a lot more like the team that should have beat ND than the team that lost to Wiscy and directional Michigan. Still, you can't define it, but Tate Forcier has IT. I'll probably not even bother with the points and just take the Whore +145 on the moneyline. But for the purposes of this exercise, give me the Wolverines +3.5.

Arkansas State +21.5 at Iowa.

Iowa's good, but I don't have a clue about Arkansas State. The Hawkeyes host Michigan next week in what's shaping up to be a pretty major game in the early big ten season. They sleepwalk through this one. I'm taking the Red Wolves and the points. Arkansas St. +21.5

Wisconsin +2.5 at Minnesota

My sense of these teams so far is that Wiscy's about as bas as expected and Minnesota's better than expected. The Gophers hand the Badgers their first lost and win by a field goal in that beautiful new stadium. MIN -2.5.

Penn State -7 at Illinois

An interesting game this week. I think we find out a lot more about this team after this weekend. If we put up a strong effort, maybe we've got a top 15 team after all. If we don't, well....well, let's worry about that when we get there. I predicted a push earlier, but I think this is the game where the Nits finally get off the donut in their ATS record and we take down the injuns from Champaign. Penn State -7

Ohio State -17.5 at Indiana

What if we get the Ohio State team that shellacked Illinois last week and the Indiana that was one bad call away from having a legit chance to win in Ann Arbor? Indiana covers. Well, I don't know about the #uckeyes, but I think the Hoosiers are for real, whatever that means for them. It might not be as close as last week against Michigan, but Indiana's going to hold their own in Bloomington. This is the last week you'll be able to get easy odds on the Hoosiers; don't say I didn't warn you. IND +17.5

Northwestern +7.5 at Purdue (from Sunday Strategy)

Purdue's a good football team. They're the classic big ten team that's gonna end up .500 but could have won any game they played. I don't know jack about the Wildcats, but my wife's fascination with Wilbon's sartorial choices makes it easy to bet against them. PURDUE -7.5

Other games of interest

Washington +13 at Notre Dame

Vegas continues to disrespect the Huskies. Charlie Weis loves snatching defeat from the jaws of victory like he loves all you can eat buffets. Even if the Irish dominate this game, Washington will get a late score for the cover. I think I'll end up taking the spakajewia special (parlaying penn state with whatever team's playing against Notre Dame; not always a wise bet, but always great fun). Washington +13

Oklahoma State +7.5 at Miami

The U is for real, even though they looked awful in that first half monsoon last week in Blacksburg. This game features two teams I wish were on Penn State's out of conference schedule. (Seriously, wouldn't college football thank us for signing a four year deal with Miami?) Miami could very well win this one straight up, but I'll take the touchdown and the hook. Miami +7.5

Iowa City's Soft Underbelly

spakajewia — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 02:48:04 -0000

In August, I wrote a post asking for comment about what I should do when in Iowa City visiting my wife's family. The overwhelming reply--wear a penn state shirt--was wrong but on the right track. (The right answer there was to put a DC17 jersey on the statue of some unsuspecting Iowan, but alas, I only realized this once in Iowa City and nowhere near a jersey.)

In any event, I found myself one night in George's Buffet, a solid dive bar right in the heart of Iowa City. There's not really a good State College analogue, but its similar to the rathskellar, though smaller and above ground. Anyway, I stumbled upon a conversation with the owner--who's not named George--and told him I graduated from Penn State, blah, blah, blah.

He goes into his office and pulls out a...

penn state tie signed by JoePa.

Apparently, bartenders at George's used to wear ties--they don't anymore--and the owner, an Iowa City native, would every so often break out the Nittany blue. An Iowa professor who graduated from PSU gave it to him when we joined the big ten.

He bought me a couple of shots and we had a solid 15 minute conversation.

Why am I telling this story? Unclear, but let's give three reasons:

1) If you find yourself thirsty in Iowa City, go to George's;

2) Its good to love your school and your place, but I respect George's owner for being multicultural; and

3) Iowans are soft.

Let's go state; beat Iowa