SB Nation User Blog: spock

J-Walk still not looking good

spock — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 02:02:16 -0000

J-Walk still not looking good

Meant to post this a week or so ago, so it's a little bit out of date. I haven't seen it anywhere else on MHR, though, so maybe it's still news.

Is Selvin Young a Few Steps From Stardom?

spock — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 02:29:40 -0000

Is Selvin Young a Few Steps From Stardom?

Here's one for you, Zappa. Fantasy leaguer on the lookout for the next great Denver running back.

Foxworth for starter?

spock — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 07:11:58 -0000

I've been a fan of Foxy since he entered the league, and not only because he's a high-character guy. He plays smart, he lays it out on the field, and he rises to the occasion, or so it seems to me. It has also seemed to me that many people have underestimated him, figuring him for trade bait, noting that he's been passed up by Paymah, pretty much consigning him to permanent nicke or dime-back status. Hence my pleasure and excitement at seeing the last section of Mike Klis's article on D-Will:

Foxworth for starter?
And finally in this all-D-Will column, there is his right cornerback position. Dre Bly came in and filled it last year and he's still going to get paid big money this year. But one of the passing-camp observations last week was that Domonique Foxworth, Williams' draft classmate and closest friend among current Broncos, was playing extremely well and is pushing Bly for the starting position.

It's too early to tell how this will turn out, but if he's pushing Bly he's not just playing well for a young player. He's playing well, period. He and Darrent were both precocious, and he played well when Darrent was hurt. I think the fact that he was just a little behind Darrent made people not realize how good he was. If he takes the job away from Bly it can only help us in run support. The reason we've used Foxy at safety, even though it's not his position, is he's a good tackler, and Bly isn't. (That's why he was so unsuited for the cover 2 in Detroit.) I actually thought he would push Bly last year, and was surprised when Paymah seemed to have passed him. Maybe that was a temporary hiccough, and he's now back on track to being as good as we thought he was going to be when he and Darrent showed so much promise that first year. What do y'all think?

Piece on Torain

spock — Tue, 20 May 2008 22:23:18 -0000

Piece on Torain

Another article discussing the Broncos' perennial success in the running game.

Reasons for Optimism

spock — Tue, 20 May 2008 18:47:47 -0000

Reasons for Optimism

Nice article that makes some of the same points that many of us have made here. Note the grossly uninformed arguments by the raiders' fan in the comments section.

Gambler's Take

spock — Sun, 18 May 2008 13:15:35 -0000

Gambler's Take

Here's what one guy thinks of the Broncos draft and their chances for 2008.

Post-Draft Ramblings

spock — Thu, 01 May 2008 03:38:06 -0000

With all the talk about moving up or down in the first round, in retrospect we were in perfect position. We were the team that started the run on OTs, so we got to choose first. I'm not assuming that we got the second best tackle in the draft. Here's what I wrote a few days ago (with some editing):

Clady was flat-out who we wanted and the best choice for us. I’ve got three browsers open in adjacent virtual desktops with SN’s analyses of Jake Long, Ryan Clady, and Chris Williams, the order in which most experts ranked them, although SN actually has it Clady, Williams, Long. Even if Long is the best of the three he’s not the best for Denver’s system. His strength is straight-ahead drive blocking, his weakness mobility and pass protection. In run blocking SN grades him at 8.0, Williams at 8.0, Clady at 7.5, but both Williams and Clady are better at the kind of blocking Denver’s system demands. In pass blocking Clady ranks 1st, Williams 2nd, Long 3rd, but their grades are Clady and Williams 8.5, Long 7.0. Since the next person down, Otah, is also 7.0, it suggests that Clady and Williams are head and shoulders above the other OTs in pass blocking. In strength Long grades out at 8.5, ranking 1st, Williams 7.5, ranking 4th, and Clady 7.5, ranking 10th, so Long has a clear edge and Williams and Clady are about even. In mobility Clady is 8.5, ranking 2nd, Williams is 7.5, ranking 3rd, and Long is 6.0, ranking 9th and suggesting how relatively unsuited he is for Denver’s system. I’ved saved initial quickness for last because I think it might be especially significant. Clady is 9.0 and ranks 1st, Williams is 7.5 and 2nd, Long is 7.5 and 7th, suggesting Clady is head and shoulders above all other OTs. For reasons given in my post Information Processing Speed I suspect that this category suggests how well a player will adapt to the next level. Even if Clady was middle of the pack in the other categories this ranking might have tabbed him as a potential mid-round sleeper. But he’s not middle of the pack in the other categories. In my opinion he’s the best tackle in this year’s draft. Period.

It's been noted that we got not only a good returner in Royal but also stocked up on STers. This is encouraging but what is even more encouraging is that our coverage improved fairly dramatically from beginning to end last season, notwithstanding the Chicago debacle. The O'Brien experiment, unlike the Bates experiment, was a success, as noted here. He did this without an upgrade in personnel. If in addition to the upgrade in coaching we get better STers we're going to be uncharacteristically solid. Question: I know it's customary to protect key starters by exempting them from ST duty, but do we protect all of them? Koutouvides was Seattle's best STer.

In grading the draft, however prematurely, it occurs to me a distinction should be made between how well a team drafts and how good a draft that team has. The first indicates how well a team did with the picks they had. A team with few picks or a lot of late-round picks might do a better job and still not have as good a draft as a bad team with lots of early picks (KC) that doesn't obviously screw up. Trades for draft picks also have to be taken into account. Even if one of the extra picks (the ones they already had don't count) the Chiefs got for Jared Allen becomes an all-pro, not a certainty or even a probability, it'll be several years before he plays at that level. The trade hurt them short term, it might or might not help them in the long run. The Broncos appear to have drafted well, given that a lot of our picks were in the later rounds. If enough of those late picks pan out, it might turn out to have been a great draft.

Speaking of great drafts, one or two of them can set a team up for a decade of dominance. (Any draft that lands a Montana or Brady, even if no one else, is also a great one.) Pittsburgh's 1974 draft is the classic example. With four potential all-pros, one of them that all-important franchise QB, 2006 might turn out to have been that kind of draft for the Broncos. If in addition the 2007 and 2008 drafts turn out to have been solid we might be headed for our own period of dominance.

One aspect of a dominant team is character and the ability to play one's best in big games and at key moments, not just with one or two superstars but from top to bottom. That's been the nature of recent New England teams, and Shanahan now seems to be looking for those kinds of players. If 2006 was a turning point in landing us a nucleus of future stars, 2008 was a turning point in the Broncos' philosophy on building a team. Use the draft to find your future elite players, use free agency to shore up your weaknesses, and look for high-character, high-motor, clutch players at all levels of ability. If that's the case, given that the other key ingredient (the one the Chargers have been missing), an elite coach, is already on board, the next decade might be a storied one for this franchise.

Information Processing Speed

spock — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 00:12:30 -0000

One of the most important attributes for a NFL draftee, and one of the most difficult to evaluate, is information processing speed, or IPS. Rookies are regularly shocked at how fast things happen at the pro level. They can't read and react fast enough. Experience slows the game down. It takes about three years for most players to get up to speed. Some players, however, have a lower baseline IPS. However much the game slows down for them, it doesn't slow down as much as it does for their peers. These are your Ryan Leafs and Joey Harringtons. Much has been made of Leaf's character but Harrington has no such issues. The truth is, both were talented enough to be top college players, but they couldn't think and react fast enough at the next level. Their IPS is relatively low. Conversely some players, like Tom Brady and - ahem - Terrell Davis, don't really come into their own until they join the pros. Their IPS is unusually high.

As the preceding suggests, IPS is probably most critical at quarterback. No player has to be aware of more things at the same time, all of it happening at warp speed. It trumps even accuracy and arm strength. If a QB can't read and react fast enough at the next level, tremendous arm strength is about as useful as claws on a snail. Of course, since we generally don't know which college QBs have high IPS, and since a strong-armed, accurate QB is as likely to have it as anyone else, it makes sense to draft based on what we do know and hope for the best. But what if there was a way to know? In the second play in this video Earl Bennett catches a long pass from Cutler down the right sideline. The play-by-play announcer exclaims, "Oh, what a great catch by Bennett!" But then the commentator interjects, "Did you believe what Jay Cutler just did there?! He laid the ball over top! He was under pressure! Look at that pass! You just cannot throw that!" And in the replay closeup you can see Bennett streaking downfield and the high-arcing pass coming down over his shoulder and nestling into his hands. A perfect pass. And then if you back up the video to the start of the play you can see the Sam linebacker shifting slightly to the right just before the ball is snapped, then firing in untouched, in on Cutler in a blink, who in that split second lofts that perfect pass. That's a clue.

Cutler's play the last two seasons makes it pretty likely that he does have that irreplaceable high IPS, in which case we're awfully lucky because arm strength alone and even coolness under pressure couldn't have guaranteed it. It makes it easy to call that one play a clue in retrospect, but what if a draft expert, reviewing the miles of tape on each prospect, were to consciously look for situations, not just for QBs but for all other positions, in which things developed unusually suddenly and unexpectedly? Perhaps draft experts who have a reputation for spotting diamonds in the rough, who see "something" they like, do that unconsciously. No doubt IPS isn't equally critical at every position, but I suspect it's important at all of them. You could easily make a case that it's important for John Lynch. In styg50's masterful four-part series (which can be found here, here, here, and here) he and hoosierteacher return again and again to the same theme, that Lynch's first step is always in the right direction, that he takes the right angles, that he shoots the right gap, that he reacts instantly in the right way at the beginning of the play and that this makes up for his lack of flat-out speed. Are they perhaps describing someone who has a high IPS, and who has therefore consistently achieved more than his physical capabilities suggest? We know that Broncos linemen and running backs, because their blocking assignments and holes aren't so fully scripted and fixed, must read and react on the fly. Surely that's why a lineman in the "Denver system" is rarely able to step right in, but has to wait a few years until the game slows down. Perhaps Shanahan and Turner are so good at finding linemen and backs who are good zone players because, immersed in that system, they've become adept at seeing "something" they like.

This has obvious implications for the draft. Do Williams and Clady, along with their quick feet and athleticism, also have the decision-making quickness that is apparently a prerequisite for Denver o-linemen? Or is this attribute more marked in one or two prospects we're hardly aware of, but who Shanahan has in his sights? Do he and Turner have backs targeted that we're not aware of? Was Doom a lucky guess, or can we hope to do as well on the defensive side of the ball? Does anyone involved with the draft have a good feel for defensive players? The Sporting News ranks players in a number of categories which they combine into an overall ranking. Run/pass recognition strikes me as possibly relevant to IPS. Looking down the list of DTs I see that Nick Hayden of Wisconsin, who's 18th overall, is 3rd in that category. Would that make him a good late-round sleeper pick? I think considerations like this might be more important than most fans realize. What do y'all think?

Jets close to dealing D-Rob to Denver

spock — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 20:03:00 -0000

From scout.com, April 11:

"According to several league sources, the NY Jets are close to acquiring two of the five draft choices the Denver Broncos currently possess between the fourth-and-sixth round in what would breakdown to basically a sign-and-trade deal for former first-round defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson.

"The Broncos will need to sign Robertson to a new deal prior to the draft in order to allow the trade to be completed. The Broncos have picks #108 and #119 in the fourth, as well as #139 and #148 in the fifth and #183 in the sixth round.

"Dealing Robertson would save the Jets about $8 million as he currently is scheduled to count $11 million against the team's cap."

Koutouvides signs

spock — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 17:27:22 -0000

Just read in the Denver Post that the Broncos have signed Seattle backup middle linebacker Niko Koutouvides. I like this move. He's backup to an all-pro and a top special teams player. It's a three-year deal at (I think) 2.5 million a year. This is a more important acquisition that Colbert and should really solidify our linebacking corps.