Dave's post about predicting the records for our division this upcoming season allowed for a lot of debate in regard to who has improved their team this offseason, who has declined, who will surprise the league, who will disappoint, etc. One of the themes for the Falcons in that post, and really throughout this offseason, is that we are improving in our coordinators, and that will be enough to get us over the hump. I decided to take a closer look at the changes in coordinators from this past offseason and see what sort of effect these changes had on the teams. Follow me after the jump for some numbers and analysis.

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Greetings ladies and gents. The season with such high expectations has come to an end. While it looked in preseason that this team had all the pieces for success, the stubbornness of an offensive coordinator, an offensive line with a lot of holes, and a defense that was not quite good enough to carry the team resulted in a first round knockout. Thus, we begin the long and disappointing discussion of the offseason. Interestingly enough, we got off to a huge start with both coordinators moving on to other teams. Glad to see them get other opportunities and I wish them the best. Their time in Atlanta was certainly coming to an end, so for both to gain comparable or better jobs is a great result for them. In my opinion, this means the Falcons now have three major decisions to make in the offseason: coordinators, free agents, and the draft. The coordinator decisions have been a hot topic around here for the past week or so, so I will avoid that topic in this post. Instead, I will focus more on our free agents (who I think should come back, who I think should be let go) and the draft (which is one of my favorite discussion topics). Without further adieu, let's begin.

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Greetings fellow Falcoholics. I come to you this week with good and bad news. The bad news, as most of you are aware, is that the Falcons lost this past weekend to the Texans, who were led by their third string, rookie quarterback. This result makes it incredibly unlikely that the Falcons will be able to win the division, claim a top four seed, and host a playoff game. Instead, any trip to the playoffs would result in the Falcons having to play outside of our beloved dome. If the playoffs started today, the Falcons would barely creep into the playoffs as the #6 seed. The opponent? Why, the Saints, of course. So, what is the good news? Every single playoff contender lost this past weekend. The Giants, Cowboys, Lions, Bears and Falcons all lost. This gives us the following standings for the playoffs:

As you can see, the Packers are very likely to end up with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. San Francisco, who was originally thought to be a shoe-in for the other bye, now has great competition from the Saints. The Giants and Cowboys are still fighting for their division, and only one of them will make the playoffs. Why do I say that? Follow me after the jump and catch the remaining schedules and their schedule strengths.

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Well gents (and hopefully a few ladies out there), we are another week down and just that much closer to the postseason. I hope everyone enjoyed the holidays, feasted on some great food, watched some great football (the MNF game notwithstanding), and began to crave playoff football. Here I am again with your weekly update on the NFC contenders and their remaining schedules. We can finally close the book on the "Dream Team" who felt defeat at the hands of Tom Brady and Wes Welker, and with seven losses, no longer represent a threat to make the postseason. The Tampa Bay Bucs and their clutch QB Josh Freeman choked in the fourth quarter and watched their playoff chances ride off into the night. The Saints beat up on the Giants on MNF and made the Giants upcoming game against the Packers a must-win IMO (yikes). The Falcons future looks bright with TJ Yates now leading the Houston Texans in our marque game next week. The Bears will also be led by an unknown against the injury-riddled Kansas City Chiefs. Who has the most favorable remaining schedule? Who has the most difficult road the rest of the way? Join me after the jump to find out.

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I made a post a couple of weeks ago in regard to the contenders in the NFC and their remaining schedules. In that post, I also posted my predictions for each week to try and incite a bit more discussion. Last week, Turner_The_Burner posted a similar thread regarding the updated contenders remaining schedules. Well, I figured that while the Falcons are fighting for the playoffs, this would be a good weekly post to keep everyone updated. I made a quick Excel sheet to keep up with the remaining schedules and determine who has the most difficult path remaining, the home and away schedules, etc. After the jump, I have the attached the remaining schedules, followed by a compilation of data from the schedules, and then some commentary. (Note, I assume KC loses to NE tomorrow night, but if that does not hold true, I will update the post)

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Someone in the comments in Dave’s game recap mentioned they would like to see a post regarding the playoff contenders and their remaining schedules to get an idea of what each team is looking at for the rest of the season. I present to you the NFC playoff contenders and their remaining schedules. Please note, I input my personal predictions in this post to make it a bit more debatable.

***Update: Has been updated with the results of Monday Night Football***

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There are always two sides to every story. When the story first broke out about Chris Owens' ex girlfriend's apartment being ransacked, a lot of people almost assumed that Owens was already guilty. You can read some of those responses here and here. Well, D. Orlando Ledbetter came out with a column Friday afternoon. I just saw it and thought I would bring it to your attention. You can find that story here. There are some interesting points made in the story. Apparently Owens broke up with her because he didn't want to be in a relationship. She contacted him on the phone after she had a restraining order put on him. She even harassed a friend of Owens, to the point the police had to get involved. Now, I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet. Owens was one of the few people to have access to the apartment (we believe). But there is certainly the possibility that this is a smear campaign brought on by the ex girlfriend. Why call TMZ when the police are the only ones necessary to assist in a home burglary? Discuss below and let me know if Chris Owens' side of the story perhaps changed your opinion a bit.

MWalex and I were having a spirited discussion, and I thought I would bring it to everyone's attention and allow you to weigh in on your opinions. The basic concept is Abe's role in the defense, assuming we bring in a defender in free agency. There are several components to the argument so I will try and state each of our current arguments.

I argue that we need to bring in a guy who can be the #1 guy as a three down defensive end. This is one of my complaints about Ray Edwards as I'm not sure he can be the #1 guy on a line, considering the talent around him and his current production. I think Abe is definitely on the downside of his career and the best way to utilize him would be in obvious passing situations, as well as other situations at the discretion of the coaches. Abe would not see the field on third and short. I think by using him sparingly, we would allow him to be fresh throughout the season and utilize his ability to the fullest. I think if we use him too much, he will burnout and be unproductive in the most important part of the season, the playoffs. That is one of the reasons why I think it is key that we bring in a guy who can be the unquestionable dominant force that the opposing quarterback will fear. Every time the quarterback drops back, he should be thinking about our DE coming from his blindside. When Abe and our top DE are both on the field, I hope the quarterback is constantly thinking about the quickest way to get the ball out of his hands. I believe this will allow us to put our best options on the field at all times and in the situations where they will be the most productive.

As has happened many times before, mwalex disagrees with me. I will do my best to state his argument as unbiased as possible. I'm sure he will hop in the comments section and elaborate more on his thoughts, so consider this more of the general guidelines. He believes that whoever we bring in should play alongside Abe at all times, and push Biermann to the bench. He would consider Abe the clear #1 guy and the FA the clear #2. He argues that if you don't play both at the same time, you are not getting the true value out of them and it won't be worth it. Note the following quote: 

If a FA DE is brought in it will be to sit Bierman. Why would you sit your best rushing DE? If you’r going to do that then forget signing a big name DE. The objective is to have them boht rushing the QB at the same time. Also, with this being Abe’s last contract year you can bet ATL will get everything out of him they can.

As you can see, he believes that with this being a contract year for Abe, we use him at every possible opportunity. There is no doubt he has great talent. How can we keep talent like that on the bench?

There you have our two arguments. Basically, I think whoever we bring in as a free agent DE needs to be able to assume the #1 role. Abe is getting older and the best way to utilize his abilities would be to use him less often than we have in the past. Similar to Turner, we need to limit his snaps to help keep him fresh for the postseason. MWalex argues that to maximize the value, we need to have both players on the field. If we rotate Abe, we are stuck in the same situation we are currently in and nothing will be improved, it will be a waste of money. Now, I ask my fellow Falcoholics to help with our debate. What do you think? Is Abe past his prime and needs to be used in situations with our FA to optimize his production, or do we keep him on the field with the FA as much as possible and get everything out of our money that we can? Vote, comment, and give us your input. Enjoy!

This might be a case of me hoping to see my favorite player in the league play for my favorite team in the league. Here is the setup. Howard wants out of Orlando. Reports say he wants to go to the Lakers. First of all, everyone in the NBA needs to make sure that doesn't happen. There is no way the Lakers should be able to afford the contracts of Kobe, Bynum, Gasol, Howard, and all of the other players on their roster. So, what can the league do to prevent this from happening? Figure out how to get Dwight Howard back home to Atlanta!

First, the money issue. I know Dwight Howard would probably want as much money as possible. He would possibly be willing to sacrifice a little bit of cash to go to the team he wants, but if he can go to a good option AND earn the maximum contract possible, wouldn't that be the best option? Now, obviously the Hawks can't afford two players with max contracts as well as the impending contracts on Jamal Crawford and Kirk Hinrich (after next season). So, what do we do? I say make a sign and trade with Orlando.

Now, obviously no teams wants to make a trade with a division rival, but no teams wants to get left in the cold when their star player wants to leave (just ask anyone in Cleveland). So, what could the deal look like? My thoughts: the Hawks send Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and Jason Collins to Orlando. Orlando gets the starting SG they have been missing since Vince Carter was shipped out and will need as Jason Richardson leaves, they get the athletic freak to pick up some of the electrifying defense (and shot-blocking ability) that will be lost, and they get a big man who apparently is capable of slowing down Dwight Howard a bit. I would also be in favor of throwing in our first round pick the next year (I would give them the next year's as well if it means we get Dwight). In return, the Magic send us Dwight Howard and a contract they don't want (Gilbert's is out of the question. Maybe a J.J. Redick or Hedo Turkoglu if they are unhappy with their performances this year). Turkoglu's contract would be similar to Josh Smith's, making the salaries work out. Basic summary of the deal: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Jason Collins, and two first round picks for Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu. Would they go for it? Eh. Probably not. Maybe Rick Sund could work some magic (no pun intended) and make a deal work. 

Think of the possibilities. Our starting five looks like this: Jeff Teague, Kirk Hinrich, Marvin Williams, Al Horford, Dwight Howard. Ideally, we are able to resign Jamal Crawford to continue to dominate as one of the best sixth men in the league. I prefer him coming off the bench and Teague starting as it would give him some confidence and allow Hinrich to guard the two. We get the best big man in the league to play center and it allows Al Horford to play his natural position, power forward. 

The money situation: Without Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, we will have just under 34 million under contract. Dwight and JJ would have similar contracts, putting us up to about 55 mil. Hedo's contract puts us up to 65 mil. If we are able to resign Jamal, we are up to about 75 mil. Fill up the rest of the roster with UDFA, guys making veteran's minimum, etc, puts us over 80 mil, but not by much. Can management afford this? I say absolutely. We are bringing in a legitimate MVP candidate and he is coming home. We would start selling out games outside of the Lakers and Heat. Attendance as a whole should go up.

So, is this an impossible dream or is there a shimmer of hope? I hope it's the second one.

The guys over at ESPN come out with their weekly power rankings of the different roles in the NFL. So far, the Falcons have been well represented in just about every position, and in my opinion, with a relative accuracy... until now. Today was the coaches power rankings. Here is a link for the page with the explanations. 
http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/27641/power-rankings-top-10-nfl-head-coaches?prosaction=newpost&status=ok

Now, I partially agree with this list to a point. To start this off, my top ten would be as follows:

1. Bill Belichick- The guy wins and he has three Super Bowls to show for it. The Pats are always a feared team and the guy wearing the hoodie contributes to it.

2. Mike Tomlin- Again, Super Bowls tell the story. Pittsburgh is a scary team to play. The Steelers are a tough franchise to please and I would say Tomlin does a great job of it.

3. Sean Payton- He won a Super Bowl recently, the Saints are a good team with an explosive offense. I hate to see one of the best coaches in the league coaching our rivals, but I will give credit when it is due.

4. Mike McCarthy- This is a power rankings, and his team did just win the Super Bowl. He dealt with a lot of injuries, and still made the most of it. I'm not quite ready to put him higher, but with some continued success, he will be there shortly.

5. Mike Smith- Maybe I'm a homer, but I think the work Smith has done in Atlanta is deserving of a top 5 coach at this moment. The biggest knock on him is he hasn't won a playoff game yet. He is also yet to face a team in the playoffs that hasn't made it to the Super Bowl.

6. Andy Reid- The Eagles are always competitive. I would be willing to say they were the most dominant team in the NFC the last decade. The Eagles scare the hell out of me, and Andy Reid has done a solid job of keeping them on top.

7. Tom Coughlin- This was where things started to get difficult. Coughlin won a Super Bowl in one of the greatest upsets in NFL history. The Giants are always competitive and always have Super Bowl aspirations.

8. John Harbough- In the playoffs, the guy wins on the road. His team has yet to really break through though, and I think with that defense aging, their time might be running out. But the fact is, he wins.

9. Rex Ryan- I greatly dislike Rex Ryan. His antics, his personality, ugh. Regardless, he has been to two AFC championships in two years. Maybe it's luck (We know it definitely isn't Mark Sanchez). But he is winning now, and that merits a top ten ranking.

10 Ken Whisenhunt- I put him on here because he took a team that was a heavy underdog to the Super Bowl. He needs to find a quarterback, but I think once he does, he could have Arizona at the top of the West for years to come.

Honorable Mention- Jim Caldwell and Lovie Smith. Both guys have had winning teams the past few years. Lovie lost in the Super Bowl to the Colts, but he hasn't done much recently (I believe there were even reports that his job was at times in jeopardy). Caldwell inherited a goldmine, but he hasn't done a lot with it yet. If he can sustain this team for the rest of Peyton Manning's career, he will earn my respect. As of yet, I have him down here.

There are a few obvious disparities between my list and the list over at ESPN. First, Mike Shanahan received no thought from me. Honestly, he doesn't deserve any. He has done nothing in Washington (potentially even making it worse). Over his career, he is a fantastic coach, but considering his team's haven't had a winning record since 2006, he is not a top ten coach right now. I have Lovie Smith lower than the guys at ESPN, and I have Mike Smith higher. Regardless, let me know what you guys think of their list, my list, and what your rankings would be.

Everyone wants to see football in the fall. The players need the salaries, the owners need the revenue, the fans need the entertainment, and many hardworking individuals need the extra income. Football has to happen. I believe it will, but still, this period of limbo absolutely sucks. I started thinking about possible solutions for the labor agreement. Now, I understand I am just a college kid with little understanding of the business side of this multi-billion dollar industry. But I did come up with a couple of ideas and I'm curious to see your thoughts as well. Who knows, maybe during his free time, Arthur Blank reads the Falcoholic for entertainment. Maybe he will get a few ideas from my comments and those by my fellow posters. Regardless, here are my ideas for the future of the NFL.

There are several key issues that are being discussed in the labor deal. They include season length, salaries, revenue sharing, financial information, and rookie salaries. I will try and discuss each of the issues individually and then give my overall opinion.

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The West has been known as the much deeper conference for quite a while, and with good reason. Good teams with winning records were not making the playoffs. In contrast, the bottom seed or two of the East would have records below .500 and still make it into the playoffs, to get slaughtered by the elite of the East. Our very own Hawks taking Boston to seven games is the closest upset I can think of in comparison to the upsets in the West such as Golden State over Dallas or San Antonio, again, over Dallas. Well, I think the times are changing. Think about the power shift that has occurred recently. With the Carmelo and D-Will trades, two elite players have come to the East from the West with little current production given in return. Let's look at the current all-stars and see where the future lies.

East: 

PG: Derrick Rose, Chicago, 22 years old 

Rajon Rondo, Boston, 25 years old 

SG: Dwayne Wade, Miami, 29 years old 

Ray Allen, Boston, 35 years old 

Joe Johnson, Atlanta, 29 years old

SF: Lebron James, Miami, 26 years old 

Paul Pierce, Boston, 33 years old 

PF: Amar'e Stoudemire, New York, 28 years old 

Chris Bosh, Miami, 26 years old 

Kevin Garnett, Boston, 34 years old 

C: Dwight Howard, Orlando, 25 years old 

Al Horford, Atlanta, 24 years old 

West:

PG: Chris Paul, New Orleans, 25 years old

Deron Williams, Utah/New Jersey, 26 years old

Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City, 22 years old

SG: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles (Lakers), 33 years old

Manu Ginobli, San Antonio, 33 years old

SF: Carmelo Anthony, Denver/New York, 26 years old

Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City, 22 years old

PF: Tim Duncan, San Antonio, 34 years old

Blake Griffin, Los Angeles (Clippers), 21 years old

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas, 32 years old

C: Yao Ming, Houston, 30 years old

Pau Gasol, Los Angeles (Lakers), 30 years old

Kevin Love, Minnesota, 22 years old

Obviously, two of the Western All-Stars have now moved to the East. Will any more switch conferences? Who and where? I doubt any more blockbuster trades will occur. No more switching sides until free agency (Yes, Chris Paul, this will be your circus, and your circus alone).

Let's compare ages here. Six of the Western All-Stars are in their thirties. Yao's career is pretty much over, but he will be voted in every year if his name is on the ballot. Duncan is starting to show his age. I don't think Manu has too much left in the tank. Dirk, Kobe, and Pau have a few good years left, but their level of play isn't getting any higher. Compare to the East where no one besides the Boston Three are in their thirties. After those three, Joe Johnson, D-Wade, and Amar'e are the old-timers. Crazy to think about.

Let's look at the future. There are some good, young players in the West that are already showing they can be great. Durant and Griffin are great. Love has a lot of potential, but the lack of play around him could make him one of those guys that puts up great numbers on bad teams. Westbrook has a little bit left to prove in my opinion, but he is playing at a high level pretty early in his career. Guys who might break through include Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Stephon Curry. Most of the others are complete toss-ups at this point. Favors and Cousins could be great, they could be busts. Bledsoe, maybe? Does anyone really see DeJuan Blair as an All-Star? There are some solid players like Lamarcus Aldridge, Monta Ellis, or David West. But I think the East is deeper.

Compare this to the East. Some of the dominant players in the East (Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose) are 26 or under. Horford, Rondo, and Bosh are all 26 or under as well. This doesn't even include some of the next crop of stars such as John Wall or Brandon Jennings. Guys on the cusp include Josh Smith, Andrew Bogut or Danny Granger. The East is stacked. From top to bottom, it now has better players and soon, better teams.

So with the combine fast approaching, mock drafts are becoming quite popular. I am guilty of making quite a few myself. For this discussion, I am going to focus solely on the Falcons and the different possibilities for the upcoming draft. There is at least one important event that can occur that can greatly affect who the Falcons target in the draft, and what order we select them. Here are a few different scenarios that are affected by these changes. Note: I am not taking potential trades into account.

Mock Draft A: This assumes the Falcons re-sign Clabo and a guard and let a majority of the older and injury prone players walk

Round 1- Torrey Smith WR Maryland 6-1 205

Round 2- Sam Acho DE Texas 6-2 257

Round 3- Stephen Schilling OG Michigan 6-4 302

Round 4- Derrick Locke RB Kentucky 5-8 186

Round 5- Doug Hogue OLB Syracuse 6-3 235

Round 6- Ryan Jones CB Northwest Missouri State 5-11 197

Round 7a- De-Jon Gomes SS Nebraska 5-11 200

Round 7b- Jerrod Johnson QB Texas A&M 6-5 250

In this scenario, we opt to grab a speedy receiver in the first. We get one of my favorite players in Sam Acho. Schilling is a versatile lineman who provides great depth. Locke could be the weapon we are missing on offense. Hogue provides solid experience and depth at OLB. Jones is a bigger corner who could become a great nickel back in my opinion. Gomes will fight Schillinger for a roster spot and special teams play. Johnson is a guy I really liked at A&M who fell out of favor with the coaching staff. He lost his starting spot, so now he has everything to prove. I say give him a shot

Mock Draft B: Same assumptions as the last draft.

Round 1- Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame 6-6 265

Round 2- Sam Acho DE Texas 6-2 257

Round 3- Mark Herzlich OLB Boston College 6-4 250

Round 4- Derrick Locke RB Kentucky 5-8 186

Round 5- Cecil Shorts III WR Mount Union 6-0 200

Round 6- Willie Smith OT East Carolina 6-5 305

Round 7a- Cortez Allen CB Citadel 6-2 197

Round 7b- Zac Etheridge SS Auburn 6-0 201

In this scenario, we go for Rudolph in the first. I think we go big for TE in the first round, or we put it off until next year. There is a huge gap between Rudolph and the others IMO. You will notice I have Acho and Locke again. What can I say, those are two of my favorite targets for this year. Herzlich is a phenomenal person, a great leader, and I think he will be a special player at the next level. Shorts III comes from a smaller school with a good combination of size and speed. I can think of a few other receivers from small schools who did well in the NFL. Smith is a project who can learn for a few years. Allen is a big corner who, again, could be great in the nickel. Etheridge was good at Auburn and I think he has the drive to become a solid player in the NFL.

Mock Draft C- Again, same assumptions.

Round 1- Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue 6-4 255

Round 2- Jerrel Jernigan WR Troy 5-9 190

Round 3- Jordan Todman RB Connecticut 5-9 195

Round 4- Clint Boling OG Georgia 6-5 310

Round 5- Mario Butler CB Georgia Tech 6-1 183

Round 6- TJ Yates QB North Carolina 6-4 221

Round 7a- Dom DeCicco SS Pittsburgh 6-3 232

Round 7b- Quentin Davie OLB Northwestern 6-4 238

This was definitely to appease the lovers of Ryan Kerrigan. We get a top DE, a deep-threat WR, a scat back, a lot of hometown flavor, and a few guys to provide good depth. I feel like this one might get a lot of love from a lot of the readers, but I hate this draft. Kerrigan eliminates the need for Acho. After addressing the needs of a defensive playmaker, we get playmakers at WR and RB. We get three players with Georgia ties. This is too “feel-good” for most to be conceivably true.

Mock Draft D- This draft assumes we lose Clabo

Round 1- Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin 6-7 315

Round 2- Sam Acho DE Texas 6-2 257

Round 3- Joseph Barksdale OT LSU 6-5 336

Round 4- Derrick Locke RB Kentucky 5-8 186

Round 5- Edmund Gates WR Abilene Christian 6-0 189

Round 6- Eugene Clifford SS Tennessee State 6-1 204

Round 7a- Chris White ILB Mississippi St 6-3 244

Round 7b- Josh Gatlin CB North Dakota State 6-0 195

If we lose Clabo, OT becomes the immediate first need. Carimi steps in and becomes the big mean guy who will be starting at right tackle. Barksdale is also drafted early as he can provide depth at tackle and could be big enough to play guard if needed. Sam Acho falls into our lap again in the second. The same goes for Locke in the fourth round. Gates could be good. Let’s see how he does against the big boys. Clifford is a potential diamond in the rough. White is apparently a Falcons target (according to one of our counterparts to the west) and his stock has dropped recently. He could provide good value this late. Gatlin needs some experience against better competition but he could also be a great find.

So, what say you? Am I obsessed with making sure Sam Acho and Derrick Locke become part of the Falcons? Did each draft address the needs of our team, and if not, who would you rather see selected? Finally, and this is most important, let me know which draft you liked the best. I know we will never come to a consensus (it’s like picking the best type of beer at Taco Mac), but maybe we will witness a few new suggestions or a different opinion as far as players go. Regardless, may the debate begin!

Well, with my previous post about drafting a TE meeting a lot of resistance from the Falcon faithful, I decided to start looking at some of the defensive ends that will be around when we pick at #27. Some of the names include Adrian Clayborn, Ryan Kerrigan, JJ Watt, Cameron Heyward. Before I give my reasoning for hating all of these guys and why I think it will be a poor decision if we choose them in the first round, I went ahead and compiled the Pro Bowl defensive ends from the past few years. Note, this is not perfect. I got the list of names from a non-sports site, I got the height and weight from Wikipedia, and I simply googled each of their names to get an approximate 40 time. A majority of these guys are 4-3 DE’s (since 4-3 DE’s put up much better numbers that 3-4 DE’s, which greatly helps with Pro Bowl voting), but there are some exceptions. Join me after the list for my analysis.

2011

Justin Tuck NYG 6-5 274 4.62

John Abraham ATL 6-4 266 4.55

Julius Peppers CHI 6-7 283 4.68

Dwight Freeney IND 6-1 268 4.45

Robert Mathis IND 6-2 245 4.56

Jason Babin TEN 6-3 260 4.65

2010

Jared Allen MIN 6-6 270 4.72

Julius Peppers CAR 6-7 283 4.68

Trent Cole PHI 6-3 270 4.80

Mario Williams HOU 6-6 295 4.73

Kyle Vanden Bosch TEN 6-4 278 4.78

Shaun Ellis NYJ 6-5 290 4.85

2009

Robert Mathis IND 6-2 245 4.56

Dwight Freeney IND 6-1 268 4.45

Mario Williams HOU 6-6 295 4.73

Jared Allen MIN 6-6 270 4.72

Justin Tuck NYG 6-5 274

Julius Peppers CAR 6-7 283 4.68

2008

Aaron Kampman GB 6-4 265 4.65

Patrick Kerney SEA 6-5 272 4.72

Trent Cole PHI 6-3 270 4.80

Osi Umenyiora NYG 6-3 261 4.60

Aaron Schobel BUF 6-4 243 4.75

Jared Allen KC 6-6 270 4.72

Jason Taylor MIA 6-6 250 4.7

Kyle Vanden Bosch TEN 6-4 278 4.78

2007

Aaron Kampman GB 6-4 265 4.65

Julius Peppers CAR 6-7 283 4.68

Will Smith NO 6-3 282 ?

Aaron Schobel BUF 6-4 243 4.75

Derrick Burgess OAK 6-2 260 4.92

Jason Taylor MIA 6-6 250 4.70

2006

Dwight Freeney IND 6-1 268 4.45

Derrick Burgess OAK 6-2 260 4.92

Kyle Vanden Bosch TEN 6-4 278 4.78

Julius Peppers CAR 6-7 283 4.68

Michael Strahan NYG 6-5 275 ?

Osi Umenyiora NYG 6-3 261 4.60

Basically, I did this to get an idea of what the optimal physical measurements of a Pro-Bowl defensive end will be. I know this isn’t scientific by any means, but I thought it would be a little fun to do. So, at the end of my work I came up with the following averages for Pro Bowl DE’s since 2006. The optimal DE is about 6 foot 4.29 inches tall, 269.32 pounds, and runs a 4.69 40. Granted, size and speed is not the only determinant of how good a player will be. Technique and experience are also key. However, I can’t really do a comparison of technique of Pro Bowl DE’s vs. the potential draft targets. I then measured this against the guys that are projected to be there around our first pick. Here they are (with numbers according to CBSSports.com)

Adrian Clayborn Cal 6-3 286 4.79

Ryan Kerrigan Purdue 6-4 255 4.82

J.J. Watt Wisconsin 6-6 292 4.87

Cameron Heyward Ohio St 6-5 288 4.92

So in comparison to the optimal DE, these numbers don’t look good. Now, I won’t pretend to know much about these guys so please contribute your own opinions of them in the comments section (please abstain from the simple explanation of XXXX has better stats than YYYY so he must be better. Kellen Moore is not the best QB in the country even though he puts up the best numbers). I have seen a little of Kerrigan, and while his upper body strength is insane, he seems slow and I don’t think he has the speed to be a speed rusher. Watt and Heyward are very similar players in my opinion. They both could rotate between DT and DE (red flags if that is supposed to be the replacement for our speed rusher Abe). Neither one is remotely fast, and while they are great against the run, I think they will both struggle rushing the passer when they are being blocked by guys their own size with better technique.  That is just my opinions though. Personally, I have my eye on Sam Acho, Texas in the early rounds and maybe taking a flyer in the later rounds on a project like Markus White out of FSU. So, there you have my take on why I don’t think we should use our first round pick on a DE. Not because I am opposed to adding help at DE, but because I don’t think those guys will help. So, go ahead, let me know your thoughts. Good, bad, just try not to be too ugly. 

There is a lot of debate about the Falcon’s prospects for a first round pick. Because of my decision to completely avoid thinking about the potential of a lockout, I decided to involve myself in draft preparation. I wrote a piece earlier about potential RBs we could pick up in the mid rounds of the draft. This one will be dedicated to my belief that we should use our first round pick on a TE. Obviously, I don’t need to give you a list of candidates who qualify for the pick because there is only one candidate, Kyle Rudolph out of Notre Dame. Look up his film and numbers if you would like. Experts believe he is the clear #1TE and I agree with them. So instead of listing out all of that information, I will center my argument on other TEs in the NFL and show that while there is potential to pick up a solid TE in the mid rounds, there seems to be a lot of success when drafting TEs early.

I have listed all of the teams in the NFL and their highest rated TE on the depth chart. For arguments sake, I even included some of the backup TEs who played a key role on their team this year. Take a quick glance at the list and I will continue my argument afterward.

Baltimore Ravens- Todd Heap- 2001 1st Round (31st overall)

Cincinnati Bengals- Jermaine Gresham- 2010 1st round (21st overall)

Cleveland Browns- Ben Watson- 2004 1st round (32nd overall)

Pittsburgh Steelers- Heath Miller- 2005 1st round (30th overall)

Houston Texans- Owen Daniels- 2006 4th round

Indianapolis Colts- Dallas Clark- 2003 1st Round (24th overall)

Jacksonville Jaguars- Marcedes Lewis- 2006 1st Round (28th Overall)

Tennessee Titans- Bo Scaife- 2005 6th round

Buffalo Bills- David Martin- 2001 6th round

Miami Dolphins- Anthony Fasano- 2006 2nd round (53rd overall)

New England Patriots- Alge Crumpler 2001 2nd round (36th overall) (note- Gronkowski 2010 2nd round, 42nd overall; Aaron Hernandez 2010 4th round)

New York Jets- Dustin Keller- 2008 1st round (30th overall)

Denver Broncos- Daniel Graham- 2002 1st round (21st overall)

Kansas City Chiefs- Leonard Pope- 2006 3rd round (note-T. Moeaki 2010, 3rd round)

Oakland Raiders- Zach Miller- 2007 2nd round (38th overall)

San Diego Chargers- Antonio Gates- undrafted

Chicago Bears- Greg Olsen- 2007 1st round (31st pick)

Detroit Lions- Brandon Pettigrew- 2009 1st round (20th overall)

Green Bay Packers- Jermichael Finley- 2008 3rd round

Minnesota Vikings- Visanthe Shiancoe- 2003 3rd round

Atlanta Falcons- Tony Gonzalez- 1997 1st round (13th overall)

Carolina Panthers- Jeff King- 2006 5th round

New Orleans Saints- Jeremy Shockey- 2002 1st round (14th overall) (note- Jimmy Graham 2010 3rd round)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Kellen Winslow- 2004 1st round (6th overall)

Dallas Cowboys- Jason Witten- 2003 3rd round

New York Giants- Kevin Boss- 2007 5th round

Philadelphia Eagles- Brent Celek- 2007 5th round

Washington Redskins- Chris Cooley- 2004 3rd round

Arizona Cardinals- Ben Patrick- 7th rounder

San Francisco 49ers- Vernon Davis- 2006 1st round (6th overall)

Seattle Seahawks- John Carlson- 2008 2nd round (39th overall)

St. Louis Rams- Billy Bajema- 2005 7th round

Of the top TEs in the NFL, 14 of them were drafted in the first round, five in the second round, seven were taken in the third round, two in the fourth round, three in the fifth round, two in the sixth round, two in the seventh round, and one went undrafted. Some of those lower drafted guys (Ben Patrick, Billy Bajema, David Martin) are not top TEs. They were on this list because they were the default best TE on their team. It makes me feel that the trend with TEs is that most good TEs are drafted in the early stages stages (first round or two) of the draft. Now, before you start yelling and screaming about the rookies from this year, take a step back at first and realize that the argument is based on one year of production. I am not denying that these guys have potential to be good players. As you can see, some later picks ended up becoming productive, starting TEs. However, when you consider that of the 32 teams in the NFL, over 40% of them have a first round TE starting, it makes it a convincing argument. Also, some of the least successful teams do not have a quality TE (STL, ARI, CAR, BUF).  I concede that some higher drafted TEs never lived up to their first round draft status (D. Graham being the prime example). But they are still starting for their teams. A lot of other first rounders at other positions who didn’t live up to expectations can’t say the same thing. Basically, to sum up this whole paragraph, I can find three main trends.

Tight ends taken in the first round tend to be safe picks.

While there are some success stories, tight ends drafted later in the draft tend to not be successful in the NFL.

Having a solid tight end seems to correlate with being a successful team (note that I am not saying having a solid tight end causes a team to be good, but rather good teams tend to have solid TEs)

When I look at the Falcons and our TE situation, I am thrilled to know the greatest tight end in NFL history is lining up for us. I am also knowledgeable of the fact that Tony G. will not be around forever. I do not believe Justin Peele or Michael Palmer will live up to the billing of being successful tight ends in the NFL.

Therefore, I propose to you, my fellow Falcoholics, that with our first round pick in the 2011 NFL draft, we should select Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame. Feel free to comment, argue, or maybe even praise below. 

I feel like someone might have been starting a series of posts where they analyze the different players available when we pick and if we might have an interest in them. I decided to jump the gun a bit and give an analysis on some lower-rated running backs and see if we might have an interest in them.

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This weekend is wildcard weekend. We start off tomorrow with two games followed by two more on Sunday. The first game puts our nemesis, the defending Super Bowl Champs New Orleans Saints at the NFC West Champions, the Seattle Seahawks. That game will be followed by the media-savvy New York Jets against Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. Sunday, we kick off at one with the road warriors, Baltimore Ravens, facing the surprising division champion, Kansas City Chiefs. The final game of the weekend will feature Aaron Rodgers and the Packers headed east to face the always dangerous Philadelphia Eagles. Intrigued yet? Predictions below.

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Dear brotherbrown,

I was wrong. I believed that the Bears had a chance to defeat the Patriots. I underestimated Brady and his ability to lead the team in the snow. I overestimated Cutler's ability to lead his team in a big-time game. After the throttling the Patriots gave to the Cardinals a few years ago in the snow, I should have recognized that the fates were not lining up in favor of the Bears. I have learned my lesson. Never bet against a Patriots team in the snow when Brady is their quarterback and Bill Belichick is their coach. You were correct in your beliefs and I admit that I was not. I still think if the game was played in decent weather, it wouldn't have been this bad of a beating as the snow really neutralized the Bear's team speed. But that is football. You play in the weather you are dealt and the Patriots made the most of it. Congratulations on your correct pick.

                                                                                                                  Sincerely,

                                                                                                                        sportsfan4life2012

Well, before I copied all of this over to the window, I had it all looking nice and pretty. So for that I apologize for the messiness. However, without further ado, I present to you my hopes for a Friendly Falcoholic Future. This is a combination of my predictions for the rest of the season and the postseason as well as my thoughts about our needs that need to be addressed in the offseason through free agency and the draft.

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The Falcons were a topic on First and 10 this morning. I am a huge fan of the segment on First Take and I do commend Skip Bayless for sticking to his feelings, even when they are sometimes way off. The topic was which has had a more successful turnaround, Vick or the Falcons? I am going to try and give a nonbiased summary of each and I am curious to hear your thoughts on the topic.

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Only downside? They play the #1 team this week, the Ravens. This could be a good test for the Falcons. It gives them a chance to show they belong in the conversation for best team in the NFL. Or it could show they can't be considered an elite team yet. We will be in the national spotlight this week, even though it is the NFL network (who actually has that channel?) Thoughts? Go Falcons!

http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings/_/year/2010/week/10

And God I wish I hadn't seen him. He was dreadful in his season debut for the Hawks. 5 minutes, 2 rebounds, 2 points, 2 fouls, 1 turnover, 2 missed layups. I never thought I would see the day when I was disappointed that Jason Collins was taken out of the game. However, after seeing Etan Thomas on the court, watching the Magic bigs take advantage of him, and wailing in misery for five whole minutes, I have come to the conclusion that Etan Thomas is far worse than Jason Collins.

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The Falcons look solid heading into their bye week. ESPN has the Falcons as the top team in their Power Rankings. They are also considered the top team in the NFC. My question is, do the Falcons deserve all of this praise? Your thoughts are most appreciated.

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Well, I really enjoyed the topic earlier about WR statistics. Personally, I struggled with some of the stats that were used, so I computed some of my own to see what I would find out. I computed two statistics. The first was the percentage of total yards. I took the receiver's average yards per game and divided by the team's average yards per game. I used average yards per game to adjust for players who might have missed a game or two, and their numbers would be lower than their counterparts who played all 16 games. I also computed the percentage of passing yards. I took the receiver's average yards per game and divided by the team's average passing yards per game. The results I found were surprising.

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Well, the season has started off on a bittersweet note. Against a very formidable defense, the Falcons offense laid an egg. 0 touchdowns the entire game. There are a lot of complaints that an offense with players like Ryan, Turner, White, and Gonzalez shouldn't be kept out of the endzone. And I agree, however, if there was anything I think can improve quickly, it would be the offense. Personally, I was impressed with the defense. Barring an obvious lack of concentration at the end of the game, the defense kept the Steelers offense in check. And to think, next week we have our (deserving of a Pro Bowl) DT Babineaux back. There is usually a decent improvement between games one and two, and I am already excited about what I saw from the team this past weekend. Follow me after the jump and we can discuss guys whose names have been added to the hot list of guys who could be replaced either this season or in the draft.

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