In SB Nation's NCAA Bracket projections, posted this morning, Rutgers doesn't make the field yet, but is at least on the bubble, listed under "Next Four Out". On Blogging The Bracket's S-Curve, RU is listed at #74, the highest Big East team that isn't actually in the field.

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I'm not saying that I think this is especially likely to happen.  But I figured people might want to know.  The nickel version is this:  To have a chance at winning the Big East, Rutgers would first need to beat Cincinnati and UConn.  They would also need at least one more loss by Cincinnati, Louisville and West Virginia.  Or to put it another way, by Louisville and whoever wins the Cincy-WVa game.  That doesn't guarantee anything, but it's the first step.

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So, now we're at the actual bubble bursting phase of the season.  At this point, there are 69 bowl-eligible teams, with 68 bowl spots out there.  At the moment, I'd put Louisiana-Lafayette on the outside, but their bubble hasn't burst yet.  The key factor is going to be how many teams from the non-AQ conferences wind up at 7-5 or better, and keep 6-6 teams with nowhere to go (cough, Notre Dame, cough) at home.

The BCS situation, as we all know, seems to come down to the Oklahoma State-Oklahoma game this week.  If the Cowboys win, they're going to the Fiesta Bowl, and if not, Boise will get the last BCS at-large spot after they win out.

 

WAC: (3 slots)

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech.

Analysis: If the Broncos don't get into a BCS game, there really isn't a good alternative out there this season.  The best option would probably be Navy in the Texas Bowl.  (See the Big 12 for more on that.)  But whichever WAC team doesn't get a conference slot will have at least 7 wins and should find an open game available. 

 

ACC: (9 slots)

In: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, North Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest

Bubble: Duke: Had hope for awhile last week.  They're favored against Wake Forest, but on the other hand, it IS Duke.

Analysis: Only real scenario I see for their getting a BCS at-large is Clemson pulling an upset in the ACC championship, and Georgia Tech being attractive to someone.  Barring that, they won't fill their slot in the GMAC Bowl, and the Eaglebank slot depends on Duke.

 

Big East: (6 slots)

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, Rutgers, USF, West Virginia

Out: Louisville, Syracuse

Bubble: Connecticut:  They'd have to lose their last 2 not to get in, and with Syracuse this week, I really don't see that.  If they wind up at 6-6, though, they may lose out to a 6-6 Notre Dame, although I'm not entirely sure how that works.

Analysis: There's no way the Cincinatti-Pitt loser is getting an at-large spot even if they're in the top 14.  The Big East should have all of their slots covered, but if a 6-6 UConn or Notre Dame is left out, there may not be a spot out there for them.

 

Big 10: (7 slots)

In: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue

Analysis: Unless there is a weird situation, either Iowa or Penn State should get a BCS at-large berth.  That will leave the Pizza Bowl slot unfilled.

 

Big 12: (8 slots)

In: Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas State

Bubble: Kansas: Between the 5-game losing streak and the Mangino controversy, it's really hard to see them beating Missouri this week.  But, rivalry game, so who knows.

Analysis: An Oklahoma State win gets them an at-large slot.  If Kansas loses, as expected, the Texas Bowl slot will be open.  So if Oklahoma State loses and Kansas wins, there will be an extra team.  The 6-6 teams would be Texas A&M, Kansas and Iowa State - it's generally assumed that Iowa State will be the odd team out.

 

Pac-10: (6 slots)

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Out: Arizona State, Washington, Washington State

Analysis: I don't see a scenario where they get an at-large.  I'm not even sure they'll have a second team in the BCS Top 14.  So they will have an extra team.  UCLA needs to beat USC to get to 7 wins, Arizona has Arizona State and USC left and needs one.  I'd assume UCLA is the most likely to be left out in any case. 

 

SEC: (9 slots)

In: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee

Out: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Analysis: The SEC Championship Game loser will get the Sugar Bowl berth and they will exactly cover their bowl slots.  Nothing interesting here.

 

Independents: (2+ slots)

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army: Have to upset Navy on Dec. 12th to go to the Eaglebank Bowl.  (See C-USA for more on this.)

Analysis: Notre Dame needs to beat Stanford this week to get to 7-5.  If they do that, they'll get one of the Big East slots, possibly even the Gator Bowl over the Cincy-Pitt loser.  If not, they need UConn to lose 1 game, or hope there aren't enough 7-5 teams from the MAC and Sun Belt.

 

Conference USA: (5 slots)

In: East Carolina, Houston, Marshall, Southern Miss, SMU, UCF

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

Bubble:  UAB: They need to upset UCF, and even then would only be at 6-6.

Analysis: If Marshall (at UTEP) and SMU (vs. Tulane) win this week, they'll be 6 teams at 7-5 or better.  The problem this creates is that they'll have to wait until the Army-Navy game to see if their backup spot in the Eaglebank Bowl will be there or not.  I don't know what that means in relation to the bowls with open slots if they get down to 6-6 teams.  Can they take one of them with a 7-5 C-USA team in limbo?  It may be that if UAB pulls the upset, they can leave them hanging, and send the 6th team to an open slot. 

 

MAC: (3 slots)

In: Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami, Western Michigan

Bubble: Kent State/Toledo - They can get eligible, but they'll be 6-6 and there won't be spots for them. Their bubbles are pre-popped.

Analysis: They have 4 teams with 7 wins, and Bowling Green can get there with a win over Toledo.  If Duke loses, one of them will go to the Eaglebank.  They probably can't take the Pizza or GMAC slots since the other slots are MAC teams.  If it gets down to that, I'd expect a swap with another bowl.  But they could take possible spots in the Humanitarian, Texas or New Mexico bowls.

 

Mountain West: (5 slots)

In: BYU, TCU, Utah, Air Force

Out: Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Bubble: Wyoming: All they need to do is beat Colorado State, and they have no excuse for not doing that.

Analysis: TCU will be in a BCS game, so they will have 1 or 2 unfilled slots - the Humanitarian and New Mexico.

 

Sun Belt: (1 slot)

In: Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, MTSU

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Analysis: Troy's won the conference, and MTSU already has 8 wins.  ULM (vs. MTSU) and ULL (vs. Troy) can get to 7 wins this week, in theory.

 

To summarize, at this point (putting Okla. St. in the BCS), there are 7 open slots (Pizza, GMAC, Eaglebank (2), Texas,  Humanitarian and New Mexico), and so far 3 are taken by 7-win teams (one each from the MAC, Sun Belt and WAC).   There are 5 6-win teams without spots (2 from the Sun Belt, one each from the MAC, C-USA and Pac-10), but they all have games left to play.  We'll see what develops.

 

And this week's games of import:

Wake Forest at Duke: Lots of people rooting against Duke, but that's nothing new.  Wait, in football?

Kansas at Missouri: Well, it's not like Missouri has been that consistent, either.

Syracuse at UConn: Seriously, UConn losing this one would just be cruel.

Wyoming at Colorado State: C'mon, New Mexico was 0-10 and they beat Colorado State!  Wyoming has to do it.

UAB at UCF: May not ultimately mean much, but even getting eligible would be big for the Blazers after starting 2-5.

Nevada at Boise State: We all know about this one, right?

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: An Oklahoma State loss means the Texas Bowl isn't open, but also that the WAC doesn't have an extra team, so from a numerical POV it's a wash.  But who cares about that?

Notre Dame at Stanford: This could be a good game, or it could get ugly real fast.

MTSU at Louisiana-Monroe, Troy at Louisiana-Lafayette: If the home teams win, there's a good chance they'll get to go somewhere.

Marshall at UTEP, Tulane at SMU: Can they get to 7 wins, and complicate the hell out of things?

Arizona at Arizona State, UCLA at USC: If the road teams win, they're definitely going somewhere.

 In the interest of getting this done before I leave on vacation, I'll just sum up my opinions on who will get the BCS at-large berths.  Barring weirdness, I expect TCU, Boise State, the Alabama/Florida loser, and either Penn State or Iowa.  Yes, Oklahoma State could, in theory, sneak in there, but they're not generating any buzz or any special ratings.  (Plus they have to beat Oklahoma first.)

WAC: (3 slots)

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech.

 

ACC: (9 slots)

In: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, North Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest

Bubble: Florida State: Just needs to beat Maryland, but it's the ACC, so YNK.

Duke: Not trending in a positive direction, but they still just need one win, and there's no reason they can't beat Wake Forest.

 

Big East: (6 slots)

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, Rutgers, West Virginia

Out: Louisville, Syracuse

Bubble: USF: OK, they only need 1 win and still have Louisville left, but they looked so bad against Rutgers I'm putting them here on general principles.

Connecticut:  The entire league is united in hoping they beat Notre Dame.  That or USF will do it for them, and I expect it to happen.

 

Big 10: (7 slots)

In: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Indiana, Purdue

Bubble: Michigan: Let's just say beating Ohio State would be surprising and leave it at that.

 

Big 12: (8 slots)

In: Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado

Bubble: Kansas State: Beat Nebraska and win the division, lose and don't go to a bowl. 

Kansas: If they lose this week (which they should), it's a 5-game losing streak going into the finale against Missouri.  I haven't seen any reason to think they can turn things around now.

 

Pac-10: (6 slots)

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC

Out: Washington, Washington State

Bubble: UCLA: They should be favored against Arizona State, and the way USC is going, they could win that one too.  A pretty good chance they make it.

Arizona State: Need to beat UCLA and Arizona, and they haven't won in a month.  I'm not crazy about their chances.

 

SEC: (9 slots)

In: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee

Out: Vanderbilt

Bubble:   Mississippi State: They need to beat Arkansas and Ole Miss, which is pretty unlikely, but not imposssible.  11 bowl-eligible teams would be impressive.

 

Independents: (2+ slots)

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army:  They need to win out - North Texas shouldn't be an issue, but they haven't beaten Navy since 2001, and there's no real reason to expect anything different this year.

 

Conference USA: (5 slots)

In: East Carolina, Houston, Southern Miss, SMU, UCF

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane, UTEP

Bubble:  Marshall: I still like their chances with SMU and UTEP left on the schedule.

UAB:  They'll have to upset East Carolina or UCF.  Probably won't happen, but I like their odds better than Tulsa's.

Tulsa: They need to beat Southern Miss this week, and things are a real mess there right now.

 

MAC: (3 slots)

In: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami

Bubble: Bowling Green: Just has to beat a terrible Akron team & has another shot against Toledo anyway.

Western Michigan: Needs to beat Eastern Michigan & Ball State, but they have 1 combined win.

Kent State: Only needs 1 win, but Buffalo is not a pushover, and Temple is pretty unlikely.

Toledo: Needs to win out, and beating Bowling Green will be a challenge.

 

Mountain West: (5 slots)

In: BYU, TCU, Utah, Air Force

Out: Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Bubble: Wyoming: All they need to do is beat Colorado State, and they have no excuse for not doing that.

 

Sun Belt: (1 slot)

In: Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, MTSU

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Bubble: Louisiana-Lafayette: Still need one more win, with Louisiana-Monroe and Troy left.  But unless they win both, they won't be going to a game in any case.

 

The first question is how many slotless teams will be 7-5.  I'd expect 3 - Bowling Green from the MAC, and MTSU and Louisiana-Monroe from the Sun Belt

I'd predict 4 or 5 open slots (I really can't make my mind up about Duke.), as follows -

Eaglebank (Army) -C-USA covers (can be a 6-6 team)

GMAC (9th ACC) - Probably Sun Belt

Pizza Bowl (7th Big Ten) - Can't be a MAC team, so good chance of Sun Belt

Humanitarian/New Mexico Bowl (5th MWC) - May be forced to take the extra MAC team

Eaglebank (8th ACC?) - This one would be covered by the MAC if it's open, so then the other bowls could fight over which one can take a 6-6 team from a BCS conference.  (UCLA, Iowa State and UConn would seem to be the leading candidates for such a spot.)

Finally, this week's important games, without commentary (there are no games that are likely to impact the BCS scenarios barring a huge upset)

Arizona State at UCLA

Kansas State at Nebraska

Ohio State at Michigan

Mississippi State at Arkansas

Maryland at Florida State

Tulsa at Southern Mississippi

UAB at East Carolina

Kent State at Temple

Duke at Miami

SMU at Marshall

UConn at Notre Dame

Louisville at USF

Louisiana Monroe at Louisiana Lafayette

Getting this in at about the last minute.  Funny thing is I'll have to have next week's up on Monday, I'm leaving on vacation on Tuesday.  (San Antonio & Austin, hopefully I'll get to the Texas-Kansas game next weekend.  I guess if I'm wearing a Bronco t-shirt I'll have to call it "raw orange".)

And because it's quite late, I don't have any real comments.  We're up to 48 already-eligible teams, with 68 total slots.

WAC: (3 slots)

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech.

(BCS: Boise should win all of their remaining games and end up in the top 8.  At that point, lots of other factors come into play.)

ACC: (9 slots)

In: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, North Carolina State, Virginia

Bubble: North Carolina: I'd put them in, but I expect them to lose their next 2 and then be back on the bubble for the N.C. State game, so what would be the point?  But I'm pretty sure they'll get the win they need.

Duke/Florida State/Wake Forest: Wake needs to beat both of the other 2 teams.  Duke just needs 1 win, but Wake seems much more likely than Georgia Tech or Miami.  Florida State needs to beat Wake (& Maryland), unless they're going to upset Florida.  So one of these teams really should make it, but more than that seems like a stretch.

(BCS: Unlikely, I think.  If Miami wins out, they'll be in the top 14, but they're not as big of a deal as they used to be.  I would be surprised if the Fiesta Bowl picked them over a 12-0 Boise State.) 

 

Big East: (6 slots)

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, Rutgers, USF, West Virginia

Out: Louisville

Bubble: Connecticut:  They may have had another painful loss, but I'm almost more optimistic that they'll get the win over Notre Dame or USF that they need after that effort. 

Syracuse: Still hanging around, they'd need wins against Rutgers at home, and Louisville and UConn on the road.  None of those would be a shock, but all 3 is probably asking too much.

(BCS: No chance.  No one would have any interest in Cincinnati or Pitt as an at-large, and no one else can get into the top 14.)

 

Big 10: (7 slots)

In: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Indiana

Bubble: Michigan State: They need one more win, and beating Purdue is not certain by any means.  But they certainly smacked around a MAC team this week.

Michigan: Ouch.  (Wait, who feels sorry for Michigan?)  They're probably out with Wisconsin and Ohio State left.  Although you never know with rivalry games.

Purdue:  They need to beat Michigan State and Indiana.  I wouldn't say it's likely, but it's not impossible by any means.

(BCS: Not nearly as good as last week.  The loser of the Ohio State-Iowa game will drop out of the top 14.  It's certainly possible that a 2-loss Penn State or Iowa could wind up in the top 14 at the end, but I don't see the bowls beating down their doors.  Iowa is not a high-profile school, and Penn State's best win would be...Minnesota?  Northwestern?  Michigan State?)

 

Big 12: (8 slots)

In: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado

Bubble: Kansas/Missouri/Iowa State/Kansas State:  This giant muddle is pretty similar - they all need 1 more win, and looking at their schedule, they should be able to get it.  But I just feel that somebody is going to gack it up and miss out, I'm just not sure which.  Iowa State would be the smart bet to fail, but I might pick Kansas, who've already lost 3 in a row. 

(BCS: Not without a big upset.  Oklahoma State will be in the top 14 if they win out, but they're probably less attractive than Miami. Only if the bowls are just committed to taking anybody but a second non-AQ team.)

 

Pac-10: (6 slots)

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC

Out: Washington, Washington State

Bubble: UCLA: Hey, they finally got a conference win!    They just need to beat Arizona State (& Wazzu), and they'll have home field and momentum on their side.  That's the way I would bet.

Arizona State: Need to beat UCLA and upset someone, probably Arizona.  The USC game may turn out to have been their best shot.

(BCS: If Oregon and USC win out, USC would seem like a lock for the Fiesta Bowl.  But I'm not sure that's going to happen, especially for USC.  In that case, everything is up in the air.)

 

SEC: (9 slots)

In: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee

Out: Vanderbilt

Bubble:  Mississippi:  They need to beat Tennessee or win at Mississippi State.  I expect them to do the latter, but it's not a sure thing.

Georgia: They need a win from Auburn, Kentucky or Georgia Tech.  I'd expect them to get it done, but those aren't going to be easy games.

Mississippi State: OK, they're losing to Alabama.  But beating Arkansas and Ole Miss will be enough, and I guess there's a chance it could happen. 

(BCS: Absolutely.)

 

Independents: (2+ slots)

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army:  They need to win out - VMI and North Texas shouldn't be issues, but they haven't beaten Navy since 2001, and there's no real reason to expect anything different this year.

 

Conference USA: (5 slots)

In: Houston, Marshall, UCF

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane, UTEP

Bubble:  East Carolina: Just have to beat UAB or Tulsa. Shouldn't be a problem.

Southern Miss: Only need 1 more win, but there are no easy games left. 

SMU: All they need now is to beat UTEP or Tulane.  That doesn't look too difficult. 

Tulsa: Ouchie.  That's got to hurt. Now they have to see if that will spur them on, or send them spiraling downward.  They'll need to beat East Carolina or Southern Miss to get in. 

UAB: They smacked around FAU, now should beat Memphis, and then they need to upset East Carolina or UCF.  Probably won't happen, but it could.

(BCS: If Houston wins out and TCU and Boise both lose...they'll probably be passed by Utah anyway.)

 

MAC: (3 slots)

In: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami

Bubble: Bowling Green: Just has to beat a terrible Akron team & has another shot against Toledo anyway.

Western Michigan: Needs to beat Eastern Michigan & Ball State, but they have 1 combined win.

Kent State: Only needs 1 win, but Buffalo is not a pushover, and Temple is pretty unlikely.

Toledo: Needs to win out, and beating Bowling Green will be a challenge.

 

Mountain West: (5 slots)

In: BYU, TCU, Utah, Air Force

Out: Colorado State, New Mexico

Bubble: Wyoming: If they don't pull off an upset, they need to win at San Diego St. and Colorado St.  That's doable, but not easy.  Best bet for a fifth team, though.

San Diego State: Still alive despite the hammering by TCU.  I don't expect them to get the 2 wins they need, though.

UNLV: They need to beat Air Force and San Diego State.  I'd be very surprised if they did.

(BCS: If TCU wins out, they are likely to be ahead of Boise State and the presumptive pick.)

 

Sun Belt: (1 slot)

In: Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, MTSU

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Bubble: Louisiana-Lafayette: Beating Arkansas State was good, but they still need to take out one of the top 3 teams.  If they can beat Kansas State, they certainly can do that, we'll see if they do.

 

At this point, I honestly think the most likely case for the at-large BCS bids is the SEC runner-up, USC, TCU and Boise State.  Maybe I'm being naïve, but Boise's profile is high enough, and Penn State so generally uninspiring, that I think Boise would be the choice. 

Working from those assumptions, at the moment I'd predict 4 open bowl slots.  2 of them are the Eaglebank Bowl's slots (8th ACC team and Army), but there are deals with the MAC and Conference USA for backups.

The 9th ACC team goes to the GMAC Bowl (I overlooked that one in last week's post), which has no backup, and is playing a MAC team, so it can't take another one.   So that will almost certainly go to a Sun Belt team.

The other open spot is the last MWC slot, which will probably be the Humanitarian, as that's the only bowl they don't have a tie-in with in the future.  If there are still 7-5 MAC or Sun Belt teams, they will have no options.  Without getting into a lot of detail (for once), I think that's likely to be the case.

 

And now, this week's list of important bubble games, including those with BCS at-large implications:

Florida State at Wake Forest: Elimination game, plain and simple.  (No, Florida State is not beating Florida.)

Michigan State at Purdue: A winner in/loser out game if Spartans win.  It isn't so certain if it goes the other way, but that would be the smart bet.

Wyoming at San Diego State: Elimination game for all real purposes

Michigan at Wisconsin: Michigan needs 1 win, but isn't likely to get it.

Missouri at Kansas State: Somebody will clinch eligibility in this one.

Colorado at Iowa State: Cyclones have a much better chance of getting there win here than vs. Missouri next week

Utah at TCU: Hopefully, it will affect who gets the at-large BCS spots.

Nebraska at Kansas: If the Jayhawks don't get this one, they'll have a 5-game losing streak after Texas next week.

UNLV at Air Force: UNLV has a slim chance, but needs to win out.

Syracuse at Louisville: Loser is eliminated, winner clings to life.

Auburn at Georgia: Georgia needs to find one more win somewhere.

East Carolina at Tulsa: Winner clinches, loser still has a decent shot

Southern Miss at Marshall: See East Carolina at Tulsa

Tennessee at Ole Miss: Winner clinches, loser is probably good anyway.

Stanford at USC: Even USC isn't making a BCS game with 3 losses.  If Stanford can beat Oregon...

UTEP at SMU: Uh-oh, SMU may be playing well enough that UTEP will beat them.  (Trust me, that's how UTEP works.)

Louisiana-Lafayette at MTSU: Ragin' Cajuns need a win somewhere.

Here's this week's list of who's in, who's out, and who has some work to do.  Surprisingly, with 5 weeks to go, I can already declare one conference as settled (although not officially).  it's probably not surprising that it's the WAC.  This week, I'm also starting to look at what bowls will have open slots, and how they might fill them.

It does seem like there's more teams moving off of the In/Out lists and to the Bubble than normal, but some of that is going to happen.  There were a couple of teams (Michigan, Tulsa) with really bad losses last week.  I suspect every year there's a couple of teams that just collapse down the stretch.  Just remember, if it's not in bold, it isn't official yet.  Even if you only need to beat San Jose State.

 

WAC: (3 slots)

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech.

(BCS: Boise should win all of their remaining games and end up in the top 8.  At that point, lots of other factors come into play.)

 

ACC: (9 slots)

In: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, North Carolina State, Virginia

Bubble: North Carolina - They need 7 total wins, and Duke and N.C. State would do that.  If they play as well as they're capable of, they'll make it.

Duke - They need 1 win out of 4 games.  Even though there are no easy wins on the schedule, it would seem likely that they can do that.

Florida State - 2 wins needed, which means either at Clemson or at Wake Forest.  (Taking Maryland as a given, which may be a mistake.)  Like Duke, it seems that they could accomplish that. 

Wake Forest - If they'd held on against Miami, I'd like their chances.  But they need 2 out of 3 from at Georgia Tech, Florida State, and at Duke.  I don't know if their offense can keep up with those guys.

(BCS: Unlikely, I think.  Miami could wind up back in the top 14 if they win out, but they would probably be behind USC and the Penn St./Ohio St. winner.  Even if they're not, I'm really not sure that the Fiesta Bowl would take a 10-2 Miami ahead of an unbeaten Boise State.)

 

Big East: (6 slots)

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, Rutgers, USF, West Virginia

Out: Louisville

Bubble: Connecticut:  Another painful loss, and now they're in trouble.  They need 2 out of their last 4, which means one from road games at Cincinnati and Notre Dame, or USF at home.  It's certainly achievable, but it's going to be difficult.

Syracuse: Still hanging around, they'd need wins against Rutgers at home, and Louisville and UConn on the road.  None of those would be a shock, but all 3 is probably asking too much.

(BCS: No chance.  No one would have any interest in Cincinnati or Pitt as an at-large, and no one else can get into the top 14.)

 

Big 10: (7 slots)

In: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Purdue

Bubble: Michigan State: You have a losing record at this point, you get on the bubble.  They only need to beat Western Michigan and Purdue, so I still think they'll get it done.

Michigan: You lose to Illinois, you get on the bubble.  They probably should beat Purdue this week, but if they don't they're in big trouble with Wisconsin and Ohio State left.

Indiana:  Now they need to pull off an upset  - for the whole game.  They may have taken their best shot already.

(BCS: As it stands now, a pretty good chance.  An 11-1 Penn State would be very attractive, and a 10-2 Ohio State might be as well.  Also, if Iowa winds up in the NCG, the Rose Bowl has shown it will take whatever Big 10 team it can get its hands on.  The combination to hope for is for Iowa to beat Ohio State, and Ohio State to beat Penn State, which would probably keep both teams out of the top 14, and not eligible as at-large picks.)

 

Big 12: (8 slots)

In: Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado

Bubble: Iowa State: And there goes the momentum.  They still just need to beat Colorado next week, which I think they will do. 

Kansas State: They need 2 of the last 3, which could happen.  And if it's the right 2, they'd win the division.  But they haven't beaten a good team yet.  (Texas A&M doesn't count that week.)  I don't expect them to get it done.

(BCS: Not unless Texas loses in the Big 12 championship game.  Oklahoma State's the highest ranked team and even if they made it back to the top 14, wouldn't be an attractive pick.)

 

Pac-10: (6 slots)

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, USC

Out: Washington State

Bubble: Stanford: They looked pretty good last game, but still have to beat Cal or Notre Dame.  They do seem to be too good of a team not to get 1 more win this year.

Arizona State: Need to beat UCLA and upset someone, probably Arizona.  Doesn't look great at this moment.

UCLA: Will need to beat both Washington and Arizona State.  That's not impossible, but they're 0-5 in the conference so far. 

Washington: Even with an assumed win over Wazzu, they have Cal and Oregon State at home, and UCLA on the road, needing 2 wins.  They're a good story, but I don't think they're getting to a bowl. 

(BCS: In my opinion, it looks pretty likely.  USC is still USC, and the bowl would probably get more buzz than they would with Boise or TCU.  Of course, based on last week's game, they could easily lose again, which should drop them out of the top 14.)

 

SEC: (9 slots)

In: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee

Out: Vanderbilt

Bubble:  Arkansas: Just has to take care of Troy and Mississippi State.  You'd expect them to, but stranger things have happened. 

Mississippi: Still have Northern Arizona but also need to beat Tennessee or win at Mississippi State.  I expect them to do the latter, but they're clearly not at their best right now.

Georgia: Has a 1-AA left but also needs a win from Auburn, Kentucky or Georgia Tech.  They probably should get 1 win, but there isn't a gimmie in that group.

Mississippi State: OK, they're losing to Alabama.  But beating Arkansas and Ole Miss will be enough, and I guess there's a chance it could happen. 

(BCS: Absolutely.)

 

Independents: (2+ slots)

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army: North Texas and VMI should be no problem, but they still need one more from Air Force or Navy.  After watching them play Rutgers, I have serious doubts.

(BCS: If Notre Dame wins out, they might be in the top 14.  It's hard to be sure.  If they are, they would almost certainly be an at-large pick.  And will lose badly.)

 

Conference USA: (5 slots)

In: Houston, Marshall, UCF

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane

Bubble:  East Carolina: Just have to beat UAB or Tulsa. Shouldn't be a problem.

Southern Miss: Only need 1 more win, but there are no easy games left.  Not ready to count Tulsa yet.

SMU: All they need now is to beat Rice and Tulane.  That doesn't look too difficult. 

Tulsa: Their season's going south in a hurry, and they'll need to beat at least one good team to get 6 wins.

UTEP: This team just makes no sense at all.  The schedule still isn't too bad, but for them, that probably isn't a good sign.

UAB: Not very likely, but if they beat Florida Atlantic and Memphis, then they just need to upset East Carolina or UCF.  I guess it could happen.

(BCS: If Houston wins out and TCU and Boise both lose...they'll probably be passed by Utah anyway.)

 

MAC: (3 slots)

In: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Miami

Bubble: Kent State, Bowling Green & Western Michigan are all in if they can just beat the 4 really bad teams.  Toledo was, but they managed to lose to Miami, so now they're definitely in danger.  And Buffalo needs to win out, which won't be easy. 

 

Mountain West: (5 slots)

In: BYU, TCU, Utah, Air Force

Out: New Mexico, UNLV

Bubble: Wyoming: If they don't pull off an upset, they need to win at San Diego St. and Colorado St.  That's doable, but not easy.  Best bet for a fifth team, though.

Colorado State: They need to win out at this point, and they're 0-5 in conference.  Not seeing it.

San Diego State: They barely got by winless New Mexico, but it counts.  I don't expect them to get the 2 wins they need, though.

(BCS: If TCU wins out, they are likely to be ahead of Boise State and the presumptive pick.)

 

Sun Belt: (1 slot)

In: Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, MTSU

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Bubble: Louisiana-Lafayette: They lost to both of the Florida teams, which is not good, and they still need 2 wins with only Arkansas State and the top 3 teams left.  But they beat Kansas State.  Go figure.

 

Obviously, this is still subject to change, but at the moment I'd predict 4 open bowl slots.  2 of them are the Eaglebank Bowl's slots (9th ACC team and Army), but there are deals with the MAC and Conference USA for backups.

The other 2 depend on how the BCS slots work out.  I'm guessing there will be 6 eligible Pac-10 teams and 5 from the Mountain West, so if either of those conferences gets a BCS at-large, there will be an open slot.  And if the Pac-10 has an open slot, it would be in the Poinsettia Bowl, where the WAC is the backup - but if Boise is in a BCS game, there will not be a WAC team available.  I'm assuming that the open slot for the MWC would be the Humaritarian, because they're not going to have any future relationship with them. 

As for filling those slots, it's unlikely that there will be any 7-5 teams from BCS conferences available,  and you can't take 6-6 teams ahead of any teams with a winning record, and there will probably be some 7-5 teams from the MAC or the Sun Belt out there.  Idaho vs, Louisiana-Monroe, anybody?

And now, this week's list of important bubble games:

Washington at UCLA: Elimination game.  Loser has no realistic shot.

Purdue at Michigan: Michigan's probably out if they lose this.  And Purdue's better than Illinois.

Colorado State at UNLV: Winner can keep the dreams of Boise and Albuquerque alive.

Duke at North Carolina: Winner's in good shape, loser is middle-of-the-road

Western Michigan at Michigan State: Absolute must-win for the Spartans.

Florida State at Clemson: Seminoles win this, all they have to do is beat Maryland. 

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech: If Wake wins, the good thing for the ACC is that they can qualify without beating both Duke and Florida State.  The bad thing is that Georgia Tech is the only ACC team left that anybody respects.

Wisconsin at Indiana: Can the Hoosiers recover from last week?  They'd better.

Kansas at Kansas St.: Wildcats need wins wherever they can get them.  And if they lose this, it's time to start asking questions about the Jayhawks. 

South Carolina at Arkansas: Win here would virtually clinch qualification for the Razorbacks.

UTEP at Tulane: Slow week in Conference USA, but UTEP can lose to anybody.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas State: Probably the easiest game left for the Ragin' Cajuns.  If they don't win, it's just about over.

Ohio State at Penn State: It's time to start including games that are likely to affect which conferences get the BCS at-large bids, and this game should clarify which Big 10 team is a real candidate.

 

First off, thanks for all the nice comments last week.  I'm glad folks find this useful. 

2 things I forgot to include last week.  First is just a note of how many bowl slots each conference has.  This doesn't count the 4 at-large BCS berths.  It also doesn't include Notre Dame, which usually gets one of the Big East's spots (there's also a chance the Cotton Bowl could take them instead of an SEC team).  Right now, the ACC will definitely have problems filling its slots, but the other BCS conferences look more or less OK.

The second new thing is my analysis about whether each conference can get one of the at-large BCS slots.  There's still a lot that can change about this, but I can give you my best guess right now, which isn't too great for the Broncos.

WAC (3 slots):

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State

Bubble:  Louisiana Tech - I almost put them out, but it’d be dull to have no bubble teams in the WAC.  But they need to win at Idaho & Fresno, and they just lost at Utah frickin’ State.  They’re staying home.

(BCS: Boise should win all of their remaining games and end up in the top 8.  At that point, lots of other factors come into play.)

ACC (9 slots) :

In: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland

Bubble: Wake Forest – They need 2 wins, and they probably should beat Florida State and Duke.  (And it’s the ACC, they could always pull an upset.)  The best chance of these, but it’s still not wonderful odds.

Florida State – 3 wins needed.  At this point, I have no idea if they’re any good or not.  The Wake Forest game could wind up as a win-and-you’re-in matchup.

Duke – They need 2 wins, and they’re hot at the moment.  There are 3 winnable games on the schedule (at Virginia, at North Carolina, and Wake Forest), but on the other hand, this is Duke.

North Carolina – Since they beat 2 1-AA teams, they need 7 total wins, which means at least one upset.  It wouldn’t shock me, but neither would losing to Duke.

Virginia – First place in the division didn’t last long.  They need 3 wins, and 4 of their 5 games are against teams on the "In" list. Since it’s the ACC, that might be a good sign.

North Carolina State – Another team that needs 7 wins, and outside of beating Pittsburgh, they haven’t shown that they’re capable of that.

(BCS: Hard to say.  If everything goes as it should (in the ACC? Hah!), then there would be 2 ACC teams in the top 14, and they could get an at-large.  What works against them is the pick order, which goes Orange, Fiesta, Sugar.  The Orange will already have an ACC team.  The Fiesta could, but may not want a 10-2 Virginia Tech team that has to travel across the country.  Miami may have a better chance, but they’re not currently in the top 14.  And the Sugar will be stuck with taking Cincinnati, who nobody really wants.  If they can cut a deal to get the Fiesta to take the Big East champ, then I think there’s a much better chance the Sugar takes an ACC team.)

Big East (6 slots):

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, West Virginia

Out: Louisville

Bubble: USF:  Has the collapse begun?  They still just need to beat Louisville and one other team.

Connecticut:  Tough loss to West Virginia.  They should be OK, though, needing 2 wins with home games against Rutgers, Syracuse and USF left. 

Rutgers: Beating Army didn’t prove much.  They need 2 wins, but have Syracuse & Louisville left (though all on the road).  They really should make it.

Syracuse: Still hanging around, they'd need wins against Rutgers at home, and Louisville and UConn on the road.  None of those would be a shock, but all 3 is probably asking too much.

(BCS: No chance.  If they get 2 teams in the top 14, that will mean somebody beat Cincinnati, so Pitt or West Virginia would get the automatic berth, and nobody wants an 11-1 Cincinnati.)

Big 10 (7 slots):

In: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Purdue

Bubble: Indiana:  Now they need to pull off an upset.  Wisconsin is probably their best chance, but beating Iowa this week would make a lot of other people happy.

(BCS: As it stands now, a pretty good chance.  An 11-1 Penn State would be very attractive.  Also, if Iowa winds up in the NCG, the Rose Bowl has shown it will take whatever Big 10 team it can get its hands on to replace them.  The combination to hope for is for Iowa to beat Ohio State, and Ohio State to beat Penn State, which would probably keep both teams out of the top 14, and not eligible as at-large picks.)

Big 12 (8 slots):

In: Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado

Bubble: Iowa State: Huge win this week, but they’re not getting 8 turnovers again.  Texas A&M might not be as easy as I thought, although they still play Colorado too.  I think they’re almost certainly in, but better safe than sorry

Texas A&M: I guess they haven’t given up.  All they need to do is beat Baylor and Colorado, and apparently they can do that if they’re trying.

Kansas State: I goofed last week and forgot they need to get to 7 wins.  Nobody in the division is a world-beater, so it could happen, but I think it’s a long shot.

(BCS: Not without a big upset.  Oklahoma State is the only team close to the top 14, and they still have to play Texas and Oklahoma.  In all likelihood, the Big 12 will not have a second team available to be picked.)

Pac-10 (6 slots):

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, USC

Out: Washington State

Bubble: Stanford: They looked pretty good last week, but still have to beat Cal or Notre Dame.  They do seem to be too good of a team not to get 1 more win this year.

Arizona State: 2 wins needed, 3 non-USC/Oregon games, but they didn’t impress last week and needed a break to win the week before.  I think one of Arizona St/UCLA will make it, and would lean towards the Sun Devils right now.

UCLA: Will need to win 2 out of 3 from Oregon State, Washington and Arizona State.  They could succeed, but that’s not what I would expect.

Washington: Even with an assumed win over Wazzu, they have Cal and Oregon at home, and UCLA on the road, needing 2 wins.  They're a good story, but I don't think they're getting to a bowl. 

(BCS: Depends on the USC-Oregon game.  If Oregon wins, USC will still be in the top 14, and would be a very attractive at-large pick.  If USC wins, Oregon would probably drop out, although they might move back in later in the season.  But a 10-2 Oregon won’t be that attractive, and they’ve been passed over by the BCS bowls before.)

SEC (9 slots):

In: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina

Out: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Bubble: Georgia: Has a 1-AA left but also needs a win from Florida, Auburn, Kentucky or Georgia Tech.  They certainly should get 1 win, but there isn't a gimmie in that group.

Tennessee: Needs 3 wins, but has Memphis, Vandy and Kentucky left. If they can get over the Alabama loss, they should be able to get it done.

Arkansas: Just has to take care of 2 OOC games and Mississippi State.  It shouldn’t be a problem, although the Troy game could be dicey. 

(BCS: Absolutely.)

Independents (2+ slots):

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army: North Texas and VMI should be no problem, but they still need one more from Air Force or Navy.  After watching them play Rutgers, I have serious doubts.

(BCS: If Notre Dame wins out, they might be in the top 14.  It’s hard to be sure.  If they are, they would almost certainly be an at-large pick.  And will lose badly.)

Conference USA (5 slots):

In: Houston, Marshall

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane, UAB

Bubble:  Tulsa/East Carolina: If they win the games they should win, they’ll be in.  And they could do more than that.

Southern Miss: Only need 1 more win, but there are no easy games left,

UCF: Just need to beat Tulane and UAB, but haven’t beaten anyone good yet.

UTEP: If they can play the weak teams as well as they played Houston and Tulsa, they’ll get the 3 wins they need.

SMU: Not really sure how good they are, and they’ll need to beat Tulsa, Marshall or UTEP to get to 6.  Just don’t know right now.

(BCS: If Houston wins out and TCU and Boise both lose…they’ll probably be passed by Utah anyway.)

MAC (3 slots):

In: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Miami

Bubble: Toledo and Western Michigan just need to beat the 4 terrible teams (combined 2-28) to get in, so they’re probably fine.  Bowling Green and Kent State need 1 more win than that, which is still probably enough to get it done.  Buffalo still has a chance, but needs to get some decent wins.

Mountain West (5 slots):

In: BYU, TCU, Utah

Out: New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Bubble: Air Force: They need 2 out of 3 against Colorado State, Army, and UNLV.  That shouldn't pose a major problem.

Wyoming: If they don't pull off an upset, they need to win at San Diego St. and Colorado St.  That's doable, but not easy.  Best bet for a fifth team, though.

Colorado State: Need 3 wins, including either Air Force or Wyoming.  If they can’t beat San Diego State…

San Diego State: I still don’t think it’s that likely, but there’s at least a possible path to 6 wins now.

(BCS: If TCU wins out, they are likely to be ahead of Boise State and the presumptive non-AQ pick.)

Sun Belt (1 slot):

In: Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Bubble: MTSU: Beating Western Kentucky doesn’t tell you much about a team, but it still counts.  They need 2 wins, and it’s likely they’ll get them.

To summarize the BCS question, right now I’d put the likelihood of getting an at-large bid as follows:

1. SEC

2. Pac-10 (IOW, I really expect Oregon to win)

3. MWC

4. Big 10

5. WAC

6. ACC

7. Big 12

8. Notre Dame

9. Big East

10. Conference USA

And the most important games of this weekend for the bowl bubble:

N.C. State at Florida State, Duke at Virginia: Nobody’s ever really out in the ACC until they get to 7, but the losers of these games will be in big trouble.

SMU at Tulsa: Mustangs need to find an upset somewhere, Tulsa needs to get back on track.

Iowa State at Texas A&M: The winner will either be in or very close, and the loser will still have a good shot.  But these both feel like teams that could go into a tailspin at any moment.

UCLA at Oregon State: Bruins could really use the upset here.

Air Force at Colorado State: Colorado State winning would really muddle up the middle of the MWC.

Rutgers at Connecticut: Winner is in very good shape, but the loser will still have a strong chance.

Louisiana Tech at Idaho: Must-win to for the Bulldogs to have any chance

UAB at UTEP: Upsets are great, can UTEP beat someone they’re supposed to beat?

Marshall at UCF: It’d be nice for UCF to get a quality win.

Western Michigan at Kent State: Kind of doubt either one will actually get to play in a bowl, but winning this would pretty much wrap up eligibility.

Cal at Arizona State: If the Sun Devils drop this, they’re probably looking at a 4-game losing streak, which doesn’t bode well.

Nebraska at Baylor, Missouri at Colorado: I have Missouri and Nebraska in, but they do need to actually win these types of games.

I can't quite explain why, but I spend a lot of time keeping track of bowl eligibility - who's in, who's out, and who really needs to win this week because their next 3 games are brutal.  Especially when it gets down to the end of the season and fans of 6-6 teams are paying close attention to the MAC and Sun Belt results.  And since I can sum it up and post it here, why not take advantage of it?

So I'll go through conference by conference.  The teams listed under "In" or "Out" in bold are officially eligible or non-eligible, the others are just, IMO, virtually certain one way or the other.  And a note, teams that need 7 wins, either because of scheduling 2 I-AA teams or playing 13 games: Rutgers, South Florida, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Mississippi, Kansas State, Hawaii, Boise State, New Mexico State and Navy.  (Duke scheduled 2 1-AA teams but lost to one of them.)

WAC:

In: Boise State, Idaho

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State

Bubble: Fresno State - OK, they're going to get in.  I just couldn't bring myself to list a 3-3 team as "In".

Nevada - They're also a pretty sure yes, but they have looked shaky at times.  Also, 3-3.

Louisiana Tech - This is where the "How good is Idaho, anyway?" question plays a big part.  La. Tech should beat Utah St. and San Jose, and should lose to Boise and LSU.  Then they need to either win at Fresno or at Idaho.  Normally, I'd chalk that up as "no problem", but this year, we're just going to have to wait and see,

 

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