SBNation.com User Blog: spudsfan

Rutgers mentioned in NCAA Bracket projections

spudsfan — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 17:07:15 -0000

In SB Nation's NCAA Bracket projections, posted this morning, Rutgers doesn't make the field yet, but is at least on the bubble, listed under "Next Four Out". On Blogging The Bracket's S-Curve, RU is listed at #74, the highest Big East team that isn't actually in the field.

It's worth noting that on his rankings from 2 days ago, he had Notre Dame in that spot, so obviously last night's win was significant. And ESPN's rankings, which were published on Monday, also had Notre Dame in the "Next Four Out", so that might be different now as well.

NCAA Bracket 2012 is here.

For what it's worth, how RU can still win the Big East

spudsfan — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 14:57:57 -0000

I'm not saying that I think this is especially likely to happen. But I figured people might want to know. The nickel version is this: To have a chance at winning the Big East, Rutgers would first need to beat Cincinnati and UConn. They would also need at least one more loss by Cincinnati, Louisville and West Virginia. Or to put it another way, by Louisville and whoever wins the Cincy-WVa game. That doesn't guarantee anything, but it's the first step.

Here's the more detailed explanation. First of all, while there are scenarios where there's a giant tie at 4-3 (including the fun 7-way tie, with USF at 0-7), that's way too complicated to deal with at this point. I'm only dealing with 5-2 ties.

Second, while there are 6 teams with 2 or fewer Big East losses right now, UConn is automatically out because a 5-2 Rutgers means that they have another loss. Similarly, there can't be a tie with both West Virginia and Pitt, because they still have to play each other.

Third, obviously, Rutgers needs Cincinnati to lose to someone besides Rutgers, and Louisville to lose a game, to get to 2 conference losses.

So, if Rutgers gets to 5-2, here are:

A) Ties they would win: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh

B) Ties they would lose: Louisville, West Virginia, Louisville/West Virginia (Louisville would have beaten both), Cincinnati/West Virginia (WVa would have beaten both), Cincinnati/Louisville/West Virginia (Louisville & West Virginia are 2-1 among the tied teams). They lose any tie that involves West Virginia.

C) Ties that come down to BCS standings: Louisville/Pittsburgh, Louisville/Cincinnati, Louisville/Pittsburgh/Cincinnati (Rutgers and Cincinnati are 2-1 among the tied teams, so it comes to BCS standings between those 2.)

If it comes to the BCS standings, Rutgers would be 9-3 or 8-4, Cincinnati would be 9-3, Louisville and Pitt would be 7-5.

Bowl Bubble Update - Nov. 27th

spudsfan — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 08:14:06 -0000

So, now we're at the actual bubble bursting phase of the season. At this point, there are 69 bowl-eligible teams, with 68 bowl spots out there. At the moment, I'd put Louisiana-Lafayette on the outside, but their bubble hasn't burst yet. The key factor is going to be how many teams from the non-AQ conferences wind up at 7-5 or better, and keep 6-6 teams with nowhere to go (cough, Notre Dame, cough) at home.

The BCS situation, as we all know, seems to come down to the Oklahoma State-Oklahoma game this week. If the Cowboys win, they're going to the Fiesta Bowl, and if not, Boise will get the last BCS at-large spot after they win out.

WAC: (3 slots)

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech.

Analysis: If the Broncos don't get into a BCS game, there really isn't a good alternative out there this season. The best option would probably be Navy in the Texas Bowl. (See the Big 12 for more on that.) But whichever WAC team doesn't get a conference slot will have at least 7 wins and should find an open game available.

ACC: (9 slots)

In: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, North Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest

Bubble: Duke: Had hope for awhile last week. They're favored against Wake Forest, but on the other hand, it IS Duke.

Analysis: Only real scenario I see for their getting a BCS at-large is Clemson pulling an upset in the ACC championship, and Georgia Tech being attractive to someone. Barring that, they won't fill their slot in the GMAC Bowl, and the Eaglebank slot depends on Duke.

Big East: (6 slots)

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, Rutgers, USF, West Virginia

Out: Louisville, Syracuse

Bubble: Connecticut: They'd have to lose their last 2 not to get in, and with Syracuse this week, I really don't see that. If they wind up at 6-6, though, they may lose out to a 6-6 Notre Dame, although I'm not entirely sure how that works.

Analysis: There's no way the Cincinatti-Pitt loser is getting an at-large spot even if they're in the top 14. The Big East should have all of their slots covered, but if a 6-6 UConn or Notre Dame is left out, there may not be a spot out there for them.

Big 10: (7 slots)

In: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue

Analysis: Unless there is a weird situation, either Iowa or Penn State should get a BCS at-large berth. That will leave the Pizza Bowl slot unfilled.

Big 12: (8 slots)

In: Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas State

Bubble: Kansas: Between the 5-game losing streak and the Mangino controversy, it's really hard to see them beating Missouri this week. But, rivalry game, so who knows.

Analysis: An Oklahoma State win gets them an at-large slot. If Kansas loses, as expected, the Texas Bowl slot will be open. So if Oklahoma State loses and Kansas wins, there will be an extra team. The 6-6 teams would be Texas A&M, Kansas and Iowa State - it's generally assumed that Iowa State will be the odd team out.

Pac-10: (6 slots)

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Out: Arizona State, Washington, Washington State

Analysis: I don't see a scenario where they get an at-large. I'm not even sure they'll have a second team in the BCS Top 14. So they will have an extra team. UCLA needs to beat USC to get to 7 wins, Arizona has Arizona State and USC left and needs one. I'd assume UCLA is the most likely to be left out in any case.

SEC: (9 slots)

In: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee

Out: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Analysis: The SEC Championship Game loser will get the Sugar Bowl berth and they will exactly cover their bowl slots. Nothing interesting here.

Independents: (2+ slots)

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army: Have to upset Navy on Dec. 12th to go to the Eaglebank Bowl. (See C-USA for more on this.)

Analysis: Notre Dame needs to beat Stanford this week to get to 7-5. If they do that, they'll get one of the Big East slots, possibly even the Gator Bowl over the Cincy-Pitt loser. If not, they need UConn to lose 1 game, or hope there aren't enough 7-5 teams from the MAC and Sun Belt.

Conference USA: (5 slots)

In: East Carolina, Houston, Marshall, Southern Miss, SMU, UCF

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

Bubble: UAB: They need to upset UCF, and even then would only be at 6-6.

Analysis: If Marshall (at UTEP) and SMU (vs. Tulane) win this week, they'll be 6 teams at 7-5 or better. The problem this creates is that they'll have to wait until the Army-Navy game to see if their backup spot in the Eaglebank Bowl will be there or not. I don't know what that means in relation to the bowls with open slots if they get down to 6-6 teams. Can they take one of them with a 7-5 C-USA team in limbo? It may be that if UAB pulls the upset, they can leave them hanging, and send the 6th team to an open slot.

MAC: (3 slots)

In: Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami, Western Michigan

Bubble: Kent State/Toledo - They can get eligible, but they'll be 6-6 and there won't be spots for them. Their bubbles are pre-popped.

Analysis: They have 4 teams with 7 wins, and Bowling Green can get there with a win over Toledo. If Duke loses, one of them will go to the Eaglebank. They probably can't take the Pizza or GMAC slots since the other slots are MAC teams. If it gets down to that, I'd expect a swap with another bowl. But they could take possible spots in the Humanitarian, Texas or New Mexico bowls.

Mountain West: (5 slots)

In: BYU, TCU, Utah, Air Force

Out: Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Bubble: Wyoming: All they need to do is beat Colorado State, and they have no excuse for not doing that.

Analysis: TCU will be in a BCS game, so they will have 1 or 2 unfilled slots - the Humanitarian and New Mexico.

Sun Belt: (1 slot)

In: Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, MTSU

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Analysis: Troy's won the conference, and MTSU already has 8 wins. ULM (vs. MTSU) and ULL (vs. Troy) can get to 7 wins this week, in theory.

To summarize, at this point (putting Okla. St. in the BCS), there are 7 open slots (Pizza, GMAC, Eaglebank (2), Texas, Humanitarian and New Mexico), and so far 3 are taken by 7-win teams (one each from the MAC, Sun Belt and WAC). There are 5 6-win teams without spots (2 from the Sun Belt, one each from the MAC, C-USA and Pac-10), but they all have games left to play. We'll see what develops.

And this week's games of import:

Wake Forest at Duke: Lots of people rooting against Duke, but that's nothing new. Wait, in football?

Kansas at Missouri: Well, it's not like Missouri has been that consistent, either.

Syracuse at UConn: Seriously, UConn losing this one would just be cruel.

Wyoming at Colorado State: C'mon, New Mexico was 0-10 and they beat Colorado State! Wyoming has to do it.

UAB at UCF: May not ultimately mean much, but even getting eligible would be big for the Blazers after starting 2-5.

Nevada at Boise State: We all know about this one, right?

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: An Oklahoma State loss means the Texas Bowl isn't open, but also that the WAC doesn't have an extra team, so from a numerical POV it's a wash. But who cares about that?

Notre Dame at Stanford: This could be a good game, or it could get ugly real fast.

MTSU at Louisiana-Monroe, Troy at Louisiana-Lafayette: If the home teams win, there's a good chance they'll get to go somewhere.

Marshall at UTEP, Tulane at SMU: Can they get to 7 wins, and complicate the hell out of things?

Arizona at Arizona State, UCLA at USC: If the road teams win, they're definitely going somewhere.

WAC: (3 slots)

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech.

ACC: (9 slots)

In: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, North Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest

Bubble: Duke: Had hope for awhile last week. They're favored against Wake Forest, but on the other hand, it IS Duke.

Big East: (6 slots)

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, Rutgers, USF, West Virginia

Out: Louisville, Syracuse

Big 10: (7 slots)

In: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue

Analysis: Unless there is a weird situation, either Iowa or Penn State should get a BCS at-large berth. That will leave the Pizza Bowl slot unfilled.

Big 12: (8 slots)

In: Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas State

Bubble: Kansas: Between the 5-game losing streak and the Mangino controversy, it's really hard to see them beating Missouri this week. But, rivalry game, so who knows.

Pac-10: (6 slots)

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Out: Arizona State, Washington, Washington State

SEC: (9 slots)

In: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee

Out: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Analysis: The SEC Championship Game loser will get the Sugar Bowl berth and they will exactly cover their bowl slots. Nothing interesting here.

Independents: (2+ slots)

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army: Have to upset Navy on Dec. 12th to go to the Eaglebank Bowl. (See C-USA for more on this.)

Conference USA: (5 slots)

In: East Carolina, Houston, Marshall, Southern Miss, SMU, UCF

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

Bubble: UAB: They need to upset UCF, and even then would only be at 6-6.

MAC: (3 slots)

In: Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami, Western Michigan

Bubble: Kent State/Toledo - They can get eligible, but they'll be 6-6 and there won't be spots for them. Their bubbles are pre-popped.

Mountain West: (5 slots)

In: BYU, TCU, Utah, Air Force

Out: Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Bubble: Wyoming: All they need to do is beat Colorado State, and they have no excuse for not doing that.

Analysis: TCU will be in a BCS game, so they will have 1 or 2 unfilled slots - the Humanitarian and New Mexico.

Sun Belt: (1 slot)

In: Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, MTSU

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Analysis: Troy's won the conference, and MTSU already has 8 wins. ULM (vs. MTSU) and ULL (vs. Troy) can get to 7 wins this week, in theory.

And this week's games of import:

Wake Forest at Duke: Lots of people rooting against Duke, but that's nothing new. Wait, in football?

Kansas at Missouri: Well, it's not like Missouri has been that consistent, either.

Syracuse at UConn: Seriously, UConn losing this one would just be cruel.

Wyoming at Colorado State: C'mon, New Mexico was 0-10 and they beat Colorado State! Wyoming has to do it.

UAB at UCF: May not ultimately mean much, but even getting eligible would be big for the Blazers after starting 2-5.

Nevada at Boise State: We all know about this one, right?

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: An Oklahoma State loss means the Texas Bowl isn't open, but also that the WAC doesn't have an extra team, so from a numerical POV it's a wash. But who cares about that?

Notre Dame at Stanford: This could be a good game, or it could get ugly real fast.

MTSU at Louisiana-Monroe, Troy at Louisiana-Lafayette: If the home teams win, there's a good chance they'll get to go somewhere.

Marshall at UTEP, Tulane at SMU: Can they get to 7 wins, and complicate the hell out of things?

Arizona at Arizona State, UCLA at USC: If the road teams win, they're definitely going somewhere.

Bowl Bubble Update - Nov. 16

spudsfan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:46:20 -0000

In the interest of getting this done before I leave on vacation, I'll just sum up my opinions on who will get the BCS at-large berths. Barring weirdness, I expect TCU, Boise State, the Alabama/Florida loser, and either Penn State or Iowa. Yes, Oklahoma State could, in theory, sneak in there, but they're not generating any buzz or any special ratings. (Plus they have to beat Oklahoma first.)

WAC: (3 slots)

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech.

ACC: (9 slots)

In: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, North Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest

Bubble: Florida State: Just needs to beat Maryland, but it's the ACC, so YNK.

Duke: Not trending in a positive direction, but they still just need one win, and there's no reason they can't beat Wake Forest.

Big East: (6 slots)

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, Rutgers, West Virginia

Out: Louisville, Syracuse

Bubble: USF: OK, they only need 1 win and still have Louisville left, but they looked so bad against Rutgers I'm putting them here on general principles.

Connecticut: The entire league is united in hoping they beat Notre Dame. That or USF will do it for them, and I expect it to happen.

Big 10: (7 slots)

In: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Indiana, Purdue

Bubble: Michigan: Let's just say beating Ohio State would be surprising and leave it at that.

Big 12: (8 slots)

In: Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado

Bubble: Kansas State: Beat Nebraska and win the division, lose and don't go to a bowl.

Kansas: If they lose this week (which they should), it's a 5-game losing streak going into the finale against Missouri. I haven't seen any reason to think they can turn things around now.

Pac-10: (6 slots)

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC

Out: Washington, Washington State

Bubble: UCLA: They should be favored against Arizona State, and the way USC is going, they could win that one too. A pretty good chance they make it.

Arizona State: Need to beat UCLA and Arizona, and they haven't won in a month. I'm not crazy about their chances.

SEC: (9 slots)

In: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee

Out: Vanderbilt

Bubble: Mississippi State: They need to beat Arkansas and Ole Miss, which is pretty unlikely, but not imposssible. 11 bowl-eligible teams would be impressive.

Independents: (2+ slots)

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army: They need to win out - North Texas shouldn't be an issue, but they haven't beaten Navy since 2001, and there's no real reason to expect anything different this year.

Conference USA: (5 slots)

In: East Carolina, Houston, Southern Miss, SMU, UCF

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane, UTEP

Bubble: Marshall: I still like their chances with SMU and UTEP left on the schedule.

UAB: They'll have to upset East Carolina or UCF. Probably won't happen, but I like their odds better than Tulsa's.

Tulsa: They need to beat Southern Miss this week, and things are a real mess there right now.

MAC: (3 slots)

In: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami

Bubble: Bowling Green: Just has to beat a terrible Akron team & has another shot against Toledo anyway.

Western Michigan: Needs to beat Eastern Michigan & Ball State, but they have 1 combined win.

Kent State: Only needs 1 win, but Buffalo is not a pushover, and Temple is pretty unlikely.

Toledo: Needs to win out, and beating Bowling Green will be a challenge.

Mountain West: (5 slots)

In: BYU, TCU, Utah, Air Force

Out: Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Bubble: Wyoming: All they need to do is beat Colorado State, and they have no excuse for not doing that.

Sun Belt: (1 slot)

In: Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, MTSU

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Bubble: Louisiana-Lafayette: Still need one more win, with Louisiana-Monroe and Troy left. But unless they win both, they won't be going to a game in any case.

The first question is how many slotless teams will be 7-5. I'd expect 3 - Bowling Green from the MAC, and MTSU and Louisiana-Monroe from the Sun Belt

I'd predict 4 or 5 open slots (I really can't make my mind up about Duke.), as follows -

Eaglebank (Army) -C-USA covers (can be a 6-6 team)

GMAC (9th ACC) - Probably Sun Belt

Pizza Bowl (7th Big Ten) - Can't be a MAC team, so good chance of Sun Belt

Humanitarian/New Mexico Bowl (5th MWC) - May be forced to take the extra MAC team

Eaglebank (8th ACC?) - This one would be covered by the MAC if it's open, so then the other bowls could fight over which one can take a 6-6 team from a BCS conference. (UCLA, Iowa State and UConn would seem to be the leading candidates for such a spot.)

Finally, this week's important games, without commentary (there are no games that are likely to impact the BCS scenarios barring a huge upset)

Arizona State at UCLA

Kansas State at Nebraska

Ohio State at Michigan

Mississippi State at Arkansas

Maryland at Florida State

Tulsa at Southern Mississippi

UAB at East Carolina

Kent State at Temple

Duke at Miami

SMU at Marshall

UConn at Notre Dame

Louisville at USF

Louisiana Monroe at Louisiana Lafayette

WAC: (3 slots)

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech.

ACC: (9 slots)

In: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, North Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest

Bubble: Florida State: Just needs to beat Maryland, but it's the ACC, so YNK.

Duke: Not trending in a positive direction, but they still just need one win, and there's no reason they can't beat Wake Forest.

Big East: (6 slots)

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, Rutgers, West Virginia

Out: Louisville, Syracuse

Bubble: USF: OK, they only need 1 win and still have Louisville left, but they looked so bad against Rutgers I'm putting them here on general principles.

Connecticut: The entire league is united in hoping they beat Notre Dame. That or USF will do it for them, and I expect it to happen.

Big 10: (7 slots)

In: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Indiana, Purdue

Bubble: Michigan: Let's just say beating Ohio State would be surprising and leave it at that.

Big 12: (8 slots)

In: Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado

Bubble: Kansas State: Beat Nebraska and win the division, lose and don't go to a bowl.

Kansas: If they lose this week (which they should), it's a 5-game losing streak going into the finale against Missouri. I haven't seen any reason to think they can turn things around now.

Pac-10: (6 slots)

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC

Out: Washington, Washington State

Bubble: UCLA: They should be favored against Arizona State, and the way USC is going, they could win that one too. A pretty good chance they make it.

Arizona State: Need to beat UCLA and Arizona, and they haven't won in a month. I'm not crazy about their chances.

SEC: (9 slots)

In: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee

Out: Vanderbilt

Bubble: Mississippi State: They need to beat Arkansas and Ole Miss, which is pretty unlikely, but not imposssible. 11 bowl-eligible teams would be impressive.

Independents: (2+ slots)

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army: They need to win out - North Texas shouldn't be an issue, but they haven't beaten Navy since 2001, and there's no real reason to expect anything different this year.

Conference USA: (5 slots)

In: East Carolina, Houston, Southern Miss, SMU, UCF

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane, UTEP

Bubble: Marshall: I still like their chances with SMU and UTEP left on the schedule.

UAB: They'll have to upset East Carolina or UCF. Probably won't happen, but I like their odds better than Tulsa's.

Tulsa: They need to beat Southern Miss this week, and things are a real mess there right now.

MAC: (3 slots)

In: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami

Bubble: Bowling Green: Just has to beat a terrible Akron team & has another shot against Toledo anyway.

Western Michigan: Needs to beat Eastern Michigan & Ball State, but they have 1 combined win.

Kent State: Only needs 1 win, but Buffalo is not a pushover, and Temple is pretty unlikely.

Toledo: Needs to win out, and beating Bowling Green will be a challenge.

Mountain West: (5 slots)

In: BYU, TCU, Utah, Air Force

Out: Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Bubble: Wyoming: All they need to do is beat Colorado State, and they have no excuse for not doing that.

Sun Belt: (1 slot)

In: Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, MTSU

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Bubble: Louisiana-Lafayette: Still need one more win, with Louisiana-Monroe and Troy left. But unless they win both, they won't be going to a game in any case.

The first question is how many slotless teams will be 7-5. I'd expect 3 - Bowling Green from the MAC, and MTSU and Louisiana-Monroe from the Sun Belt

I'd predict 4 or 5 open slots (I really can't make my mind up about Duke.), as follows -

Eaglebank (Army) -C-USA covers (can be a 6-6 team)

GMAC (9th ACC) - Probably Sun Belt

Pizza Bowl (7th Big Ten) - Can't be a MAC team, so good chance of Sun Belt

Humanitarian/New Mexico Bowl (5th MWC) - May be forced to take the extra MAC team

Finally, this week's important games, without commentary (there are no games that are likely to impact the BCS scenarios barring a huge upset)

Arizona State at UCLA

Kansas State at Nebraska

Ohio State at Michigan

Mississippi State at Arkansas

Maryland at Florida State

Tulsa at Southern Mississippi

UAB at East Carolina

Kent State at Temple

Duke at Miami

SMU at Marshall

UConn at Notre Dame

Louisville at USF

Louisiana Monroe at Louisiana Lafayette

Bowl Bubble Update - Early Nov. 14

spudsfan — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 08:18:49 -0000

Getting this in at about the last minute. Funny thing is I'll have to have next week's up on Monday, I'm leaving on vacation on Tuesday. (San Antonio & Austin, hopefully I'll get to the Texas-Kansas game next weekend. I guess if I'm wearing a Bronco t-shirt I'll have to call it "raw orange".)

And because it's quite late, I don't have any real comments. We're up to 48 already-eligible teams, with 68 total slots.

WAC: (3 slots)

In: Boise State, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada

Out: Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech.

(BCS: Boise should win all of their remaining games and end up in the top 8. At that point, lots of other factors come into play.)

ACC: (9 slots)

In: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, North Carolina State, Virginia

Bubble: North Carolina: I'd put them in, but I expect them to lose their next 2 and then be back on the bubble for the N.C. State game, so what would be the point? But I'm pretty sure they'll get the win they need.

Duke/Florida State/Wake Forest: Wake needs to beat both of the other 2 teams. Duke just needs 1 win, but Wake seems much more likely than Georgia Tech or Miami. Florida State needs to beat Wake (& Maryland), unless they're going to upset Florida. So one of these teams really should make it, but more than that seems like a stretch.

(BCS: Unlikely, I think. If Miami wins out, they'll be in the top 14, but they're not as big of a deal as they used to be. I would be surprised if the Fiesta Bowl picked them over a 12-0 Boise State.)

Big East: (6 slots)

In: Cincinnati, Pitt, Rutgers, USF, West Virginia

Out: Louisville

Bubble: Connecticut: They may have had another painful loss, but I'm almost more optimistic that they'll get the win over Notre Dame or USF that they need after that effort.

Syracuse: Still hanging around, they'd need wins against Rutgers at home, and Louisville and UConn on the road. None of those would be a shock, but all 3 is probably asking too much.

(BCS: No chance. No one would have any interest in Cincinnati or Pitt as an at-large, and no one else can get into the top 14.)

Big 10: (7 slots)

In: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Indiana

Bubble: Michigan State: They need one more win, and beating Purdue is not certain by any means. But they certainly smacked around a MAC team this week.

Michigan: Ouch. (Wait, who feels sorry for Michigan?) They're probably out with Wisconsin and Ohio State left. Although you never know with rivalry games.

Purdue: They need to beat Michigan State and Indiana. I wouldn't say it's likely, but it's not impossible by any means.

(BCS: Not nearly as good as last week. The loser of the Ohio State-Iowa game will drop out of the top 14. It's certainly possible that a 2-loss Penn State or Iowa could wind up in the top 14 at the end, but I don't see the bowls beating down their doors. Iowa is not a high-profile school, and Penn State's best win would be...Minnesota? Northwestern? Michigan State?)

Big 12: (8 slots)

In: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Out: Baylor, Colorado

Bubble: Kansas/Missouri/Iowa State/Kansas State: This giant muddle is pretty similar - they all need 1 more win, and looking at their schedule, they should be able to get it. But I just feel that somebody is going to gack it up and miss out, I'm just not sure which. Iowa State would be the smart bet to fail, but I might pick Kansas, who've already lost 3 in a row.

(BCS: Not without a big upset. Oklahoma State will be in the top 14 if they win out, but they're probably less attractive than Miami. Only if the bowls are just committed to taking anybody but a second non-AQ team.)

Pac-10: (6 slots)

In: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC

Out: Washington, Washington State

Bubble: UCLA: Hey, they finally got a conference win! They just need to beat Arizona State (& Wazzu), and they'll have home field and momentum on their side. That's the way I would bet.

Arizona State: Need to beat UCLA and upset someone, probably Arizona. The USC game may turn out to have been their best shot.

(BCS: If Oregon and USC win out, USC would seem like a lock for the Fiesta Bowl. But I'm not sure that's going to happen, especially for USC. In that case, everything is up in the air.)

SEC: (9 slots)

In: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee

Out: Vanderbilt

Bubble: Mississippi: They need to beat Tennessee or win at Mississippi State. I expect them to do the latter, but it's not a sure thing.

Georgia: They need a win from Auburn, Kentucky or Georgia Tech. I'd expect them to get it done, but those aren't going to be easy games.

Mississippi State: OK, they're losing to Alabama. But beating Arkansas and Ole Miss will be enough, and I guess there's a chance it could happen.

(BCS: Absolutely.)

Independents: (2+ slots)

In: Navy, Notre Dame

Bubble: Army: They need to win out - VMI and North Texas shouldn't be issues, but they haven't beaten Navy since 2001, and there's no real reason to expect anything different this year.

Conference USA: (5 slots)

In: Houston, Marshall, UCF

Out: Memphis, Rice, Tulane, UTEP

Bubble: East Carolina: Just have to beat UAB or Tulsa. Shouldn't be a problem.

Southern Miss: Only need 1 more win, but there are no easy games left.

SMU: All they need now is to beat UTEP or Tulane. That doesn't look too difficult.

Tulsa: Ouchie. That's got to hurt. Now they have to see if that will spur them on, or send them spiraling downward. They'll need to beat East Carolina or Southern Miss to get in.

UAB: They smacked around FAU, now should beat Memphis, and then they need to upset East Carolina or UCF. Probably won't happen, but it could.

(BCS: If Houston wins out and TCU and Boise both lose...they'll probably be passed by Utah anyway.)

MAC: (3 slots)

In: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Temple

Out: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami

Bubble: Bowling Green: Just has to beat a terrible Akron team & has another shot against Toledo anyway.

Western Michigan: Needs to beat Eastern Michigan & Ball State, but they have 1 combined win.

Kent State: Only needs 1 win, but Buffalo is not a pushover, and Temple is pretty unlikely.

Toledo: Needs to win out, and beating Bowling Green will be a challenge.

Mountain West: (5 slots)

In: BYU, TCU, Utah, Air Force

Out: Colorado State, New Mexico

Bubble: Wyoming: If they don't pull off an upset, they need to win at San Diego St. and Colorado St. That's doable, but not easy. Best bet for a fifth team, though.

San Diego State: Still alive despite the hammering by TCU. I don't expect them to get the 2 wins they need, though.

UNLV: They need to beat Air Force and San Diego State. I'd be very surprised if they did.

(BCS: If TCU wins out, they are likely to be ahead of Boise State and the presumptive pick.)

Sun Belt: (1 slot)

In: Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, MTSU

Out: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

Bubble: Louisiana-Lafayette: Beating Arkansas State was good, but they still need to take out one of the top 3 teams. If they can beat Kansas State, they certainly can do that, we'll see if they do.

At this point, I honestly think the most likely case for the at-large BCS bids is the SEC runner-up, USC, TCU and Boise State. Maybe I'm being naïve, but Boise's profile is high enough, and Penn State so generally uninspiring, that I think Boise would be the choice.

Working from those assumptions, at the moment I'd predict 4 open bowl slots. 2 of them are the Eaglebank Bowl's slots (8th ACC team and Army), but there are deals with the MAC and Conference USA for backups.

The 9th ACC team goes to the GMAC Bowl (I overlooked that one in last week's post), which has no backup, and is playing a MAC team, so it can't take another one. So that will almost certainly go to a Sun Belt team.

The other open spot is the last MWC slot, which will probably be the Humanitarian, as that's the only bowl they don't have a tie-in with in the future. If there are still 7-5 MAC or Sun Belt teams, they will have no options. Without getting into a lot of detail (for once), I think that's likely to be the case.

And now, this week's list of important bubble games, including those with BCS at-large implications:

Florida State at Wake Forest: Elimination game, plain and simple. (No, Florida State is not beating Florida.)

Michigan State at Purdue: A winner in/loser out game if Spartans win. It isn't so certain if it goes the other way, but that would be the smart bet.

Wyoming at San Diego State: Elimination game for all real purposes

Michigan at Wisconsin: Michigan needs 1 win, but isn't likely to get it.

Missouri at Kansas State: Somebody will clinch eligibility in this one.

Colorado at Iowa State: Cyclones have a much better chance of getting there win here than vs. Missouri next week

Utah at TCU: Hopefully, it will affect who gets the at-large BCS spots.

Nebraska at Kansas: If the Jayhawks don't get this one, they'll have a 5-game losing streak after Texas next week.

UNLV at Air Force: UNLV has a slim chance, but needs to win out.

Syracuse at Louisville: Loser is eliminated, winner clings to life.

Auburn at Georgia: Georgia needs to find one more win somewhere.

East Carolina at Tulsa: Winner clinches, loser still has a decent shot

Southern Miss at Marshall: See East Carolina at Tulsa

Tennessee at Ole Miss: Winner clinches, loser is probably good anyway.

Stanford at USC: Even USC isn't making a BCS game with 3 losses. If Stanford can beat Oregon...

UTEP at SMU: Uh-oh, SMU may be playing well enough that UTEP will beat them. (Trust me, that's how UTEP works.)

Louisiana-Lafayette at MTSU: Ragin' Cajuns need a win somewhere.