Scheppers has been less dominant as a starter (11.2 IP, 12 K, 3 BB, 13 H, 1 HR, 7 ER).  Jason Cole mentioned that the right-hander was working on his change-up in his most recent start.

Perez was spectacular in his last start (7 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, 3 H, 0 ER) and has averaged a strikeout per inning while competing as the youngest pitcher in AA.  Keith Law called him the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball for good reason.

Thompson might have the most peculiar line of any pitching prospect in the minor leagues; 69.2 IP, 76 K, 15 BB, and a 1.91 GO/FO ratio are spectacular.  But he's given up 85 hits as batters are hitting .298 against him.  And it's not a fluke as hitters have a greater than 20% line-drive rate against the right-hander.   

According to the Spokane radio announcer, left-hander Miggy de los Santos was throwing 91-94 MPH in his last start.  He goes again tonight.

For those of you who are suffering Schroom withdrawals like me, feel free to use the minor league game/starting pitcher table complete with links to box scores and radio links at BBTIA.

To determine if there are statistically significant performance metrics that distinguish the minor league careers of current Top Of the Rotation Pitchers (TORPs), Middle Of the Rotation Pitchers (MORPs), and Back Of the Rotation Pitchers (BORPs), I assembled the minor league career statistics of 11 TORPs, 12 MORPs, and 11 BORPs. 

A direct comparison between TORPs and MORPs revealed that TORPs pitched significantly fewer minor leaue innings (p = 0.047), were significantly younger when they made their ML debuts (p = 0.007), had significantly lower career minor league ERAs (p = 0.027), and struck out significantly more batters (p = 0.016).  None of these findings were particularly surprising though it was interesting to note that on average, future TORPs had consistent statistical profiles at every minor league level while the minor league careers of future MORPs saw decreasing K/9 values as they progressed through the full season minor leagues.   

The far more interesting part of the study came in the comparison of the average minor league careers of the TORPs and BORPs.  Although I had expected a fairly substantial difference between the minor league statistical profiles of the elite and also-ran starting pitchers used in the study, the two groups of pitchers were largely indistinguishable when comparing minor league innings pitched, age of major league debut, ERA, H/9, BB/9, HR/9, and BAA.  A fairly broad search of other statistics revealed ground-to-fly ball ratio as the one area where TORPs clearly exceeded the performances of the BORPs (p = 0.023) with TORPs having much higher GB/FB ratios.

The study results were used to develop a simple formula that incorporates the career minor league statistics of pitching prospects to predict where they might ultimately slot in a major league rotation.  The scores and projected classifications of several highly regarded pitching prospects are provided below:

Chacin - 100.7 - TORP
Cecil - 97.6 - TORP
Bumgarner - 96.8 - TORP, though poor groundball rate suggests potential BORP
Matusz - 96.3 - TORP
Parker - 96 - TORP
Poreda - 95.5 - MORP
Hanson - 89.8 - BORP - high flyball rate and average control
Niese - 85.7 - MORP
Bowden - 83.8 - MORP
Tillman - 82.2 - BORP - high flyball rate
The scoring system is designed to produce a score of 100 for pitchers with stats that are equivalent to the average of the 11 TORPs that were used to build the classifier. 

If you would like to see a description of the full study, you can click here.  The material was published on a Rangers blog, so you might want to skip the Rangers-centric stuff at the bottom of the article.

NeRa struck out 5 and gave up only two hits in his 3 innings of work.  He ramped his fastball up to 95 MPH according to the radio guy.  Unfortunately, he also walked 4 and gave up 3 runs (2 earned).  I honestly fear for Dirkatron's life if follows up on his promise to attend a NeRa start in Hickory.

Kirkman and Mendoza are off to solid starts for Frisco and OKC, respectively.  Boggs has been on a tear lately

Two of my favorite new Rangers prospects, Braden Tullis and Eddy Escobar are scheduled to go for Spokane and the Arizona League Rangers.  Look for strikeouts and groundballs in those two games.

Use Shroom's calendar for links.

And if you want to see my thoughts following my first look at Lemon, Strop, Kiker, Phillips, Moreland, et al at the Frisco game yesterday, please check here.

Although I usually skip the extended Josey-led discussions that are commonplace at LSB, I did take notice of the 97 comments that resulted from Josey's suggestion on Friday that Little Boy Donuts will not get credit for the Rangers' turnaround.  While reading through that thread, it occurred to me that Josey's interaction with the Rangers' cyber-fans is akin to a crafty left-hander pitching against the Rangers.  Josey's stuff isn't often very good, but he knows how to use it to bait opponents into swinging at pitches that are out of the strike zone.  Against a line-up that is anxious to rack up home-runs, the approach can be surprisingly effective.   

This revelation led me down the path of trying to understand Josey's repertoire.  Like most veterans, Josey has a handful of favorite pitches that he knows how to use to irritate and even infuriate his opponents.  Presented below are five of Josey's favorite pitches. 

The Nolan Ryan - Used approximately 4 times per week, the Nolan Ryan is Josey's fastball that he locates well to spark conversations that are often cordial, though he'll occasionally bust a Nolan Ryan up-and-in to set up another pitch.  The average number of comments that result from a Nolan Ryan reference is 12, though that number would be much lower if not for the many occasions when the Nolan Ryan is used in combination with a "Johnny Donuts/Boy Blunder" (see below).

The Galloway - Though used less frequently than the Nolan Ryan (~1.5 times per week), The Galloway averages the same number of responses (12 responses/mention) primarily because of its often shocking support of LSB's least favorite sports columnist.  The Galloway is a lot like Padilla's lollipop curve - it comes in so slow and easy that hitters line up to take a whack at it.  Unfortunately, the pitch creates a large number of pop-ups and foul balls that yield anger and frustration among the members of the opposing line-up.

The Bill James - The Bill James is Josey's highest velocity pitch, though he rarely throws it for strikes.  Used mostly for show, Josey whips off a Bill James less than once per week with approximately 9 responses per mention.  Beware the Bill James when Josey gets frustrated for he often uses the pitch to plunk an opponent immediately before leaving a game.  A favorite Josey retort as he exits a thread - "On this argument, I feel very comfortable siding with Bill James over you."

The Great Game - Used approximately once per week with ~5 responses per mention, the Great Game is like a knuckleball that flutters on its way to the plate.  Though occasionally a strike, the pitch is often well off the mark and only a problem for the worst hackers in the line-up.

The Johnny Donuts/Boy Blunder - Josey goes to the Donuts/Boy Blunder line approximately twice per week and gets a whopping 21 comments per mention.  The pitch is Josey's version of the split finger which he never throws in the strike zone but none-the-less induces a large number of strikes.  Nearly impossible to lay off, many an LSBer has taken a mighty hack only to find that the pitch has bounced before reaching the catcher. 

The Killer Combo - The Nolan Ryan followed by the Johnny Donuts is almost guaranteed to bring aggravation to those who are compelled to take a swing.  When you see Nolan Ryan in the title, keep a close eye for the Johnny Donuts in the follow-up text.  This combination produced the 97 comment thread mentioned in the introductory paragraph and is typically good for a 30 comment discussion/debate. 

Recommended Strategy When Facing Josey

Be patient and avoid over-swinging, otherwise you might find yourself looking like the Chris Davis of LSB.  Lay off the Galloways, the Johnny Donuts, and the other junk that the crafty lefty likes to throw.  If you can avoid swinging at these pitches, then Josey will be forced to throw the ball over the plate.  And when The Outlaw brings the ball into the strike zone, his fringe-average stuff is as easy to hit as a little leaguer's fastball.

April is probably my favorite part of the baseball season because it is the month when one usually sees the most dramatic improvements in individual players.  The first month of the season is often when you see whether the six months of work that a player put in during the off-season is paying off with improved performance.  But distinguishing real improvements from hot starts can be tricky.

After the first month of the 2008 minor league season, Jose Vallejo had hit 333/379/500/879 in teh Cal League after posting an OPS of 578 in 2006 and 646 in 2007.  One level down, Kennil Gomez had completed an equally impressive first month with a 3.06 FIP, 23 K's, and 2 BB's in 29.2 innings.  Gomez' teammate, Ian Gac, was the most feared hitter in the MWL with a line of 395/485/802/1287.  The highly touted Cristian Santana was also off to a very good start as an 18 yo in his first year of full season ball with a line of 274/349/466/815.  On May 1, 2008, all four players looked to be among the twenty best prospects in the Rangers minor league system.

Vallejo was promoted to AA and finished the 2008 season with a 292/345/415/760 line, cementing a spot among the Rangers' Top20 prospects.  If not for an injury, Gomez might have also received an in-season promotion and ended the year as one of the Ranger's minor league Top20.  Gac was promoted to the Cal League where he was exposed as a non-prospect (257/311/449/760).  Perhaps the most disappointing player in the Rangers' system in 2008, Santana finished as a 232/298/398/696 hitter.

In retrospect, Santana's obscene K-rate (32 strikeouts in 73 April AB's) and unsustainable BABIP (.447) were harbingers of the pain that he and his fans were going to experience.  Gac's April 2008 numbers failed to reveal any areas of weakness, but his previous three seasons in the Rangers system (720 OPS in Clinton in 2005, 599 OPS in Clinton/Bakersfield in 2006, and a demotion to Spokane in 2007) suggested that April 2008 was merely a case of a veteran A-baller taking advantage of a bunch of 1st and 2nd year players.

Given the benefit of experience and the incredible statistical resources provided by Minor League Splits (www.minorleaguesplits.com), below are predictions of which Rangers fringe prospects are making their ways into the Rangers' Top 20 and which ones are simply setting us up for the coming heartbreak.

Breakouts

Manny Pina - Pina finished April 2008 as a 481/518/731/1249 hitter.  Pina benefited from a .537 BABIP that is clearly unsustainable, though the high average appears to be the result of an obscenely high line drive rate (41%) that is more than two-fold higher than the Texas League average.  Interestingly, Pina's line drive rate improved throughout his 2008 season (from 12% in April to 24% in August) which suggests that his ability to recognize and square up pitches is improving and perhaps he can maintain a LD% (and corresponding BABIP) that is above league average.  Pina is also showing annual increases in extra base hits, with 12 in 2007, 21 in 2008, and 35 projected for 2009. Assuming Pina's BABIP drops to ~.325, he is likely to post a hitting line in the neighborhood of 300/350/450/800 as a 21 yr old in AA and add his name to the list of catchers that experts discuss when addressing Texas' catching depth. 

Mitch Moreland - Though slightly less talented than in years past, the Cal League nonetheless features 8-10 legitimate hitting prospects.  Among these prospects, only Buster Posey has better numbers than Moreland's 325/394/578/972.  Like last year when he ranked among the Midwest League leaders in almost every major offensive category, Moreland is walking almost as often as he strikes out and getting extra base hits almost as often as he singles.  When he is promoted to Frisco, expect Moreland's advanced hitting approach to translate well to the Texas League and allow him to experience the same successful transition to AA that Boggs, Duran, Borbon, Vallejo, Pina, Whittleman, and Tracy have enjoyed in recent years.   

Mike Bianucci - Bianucci is to the SAL in 2009 as Gac was to the MWL in 2008.  But unlike the former Lumberkings star, Bianucci's numbers this year (373/435/680/1115) are largely indistinguishable from his numbers last year (316/386/535/921).  Assuming he is promoted to Bakersfield and continues to hit as he has done in the SAL, Bianucci should be the best hitter on the Blaze with a SAL to CAL translated line of 358/419/665/1084.  Those would be outrageous numbers even for a 23 yo in High A. 

Heartbreaks

Richard Bleier - Bleier's 1.14 ERA is second only to Wilfredo Boscan among Hickory's starting pitchers.  In 23.2 IP this year, Bleier has GO/AO that is greater than 2 and a BB/9 that is less than 2.  And then there are the two numbers that reveal Bleier as the heartbreaker that he is: 6.2 and 22.  The former is Bleier's K/9 which is at least 3 less than it should be for a legitimate prospect, especially considering the fact that the second number is Bleier's age, which places him among the elder statesmen of the SAL.  Bleier aspires to be Jared Hyatt, and while the two pitchers are probably a lot of fun to be around, neither is likely to be a guest of honor at a prospect party.

Jake Brigham - In 18 April innings, Brigham has struck out 18, walked 6, and given up 4 earned runs.  Brigham's peripherals thus far in 2009 are in-line with his career numbers (~9 K/9, ~3BB/9, ~1.25 WHIP), thus it seems likely that he can at least maintain his early season success so long as he remains in Hickory.  Because he is 21 years old, Brigham will likely be promoted to Bakersfield as soon as the Rangers are confident that his elbow is sound.  Unfortunately, Blaze pitchers all share a room at the Heartbreak Hotel so you should expect Brigham's early season success on the east coast to be forgotten in a barrage of extra base hits and earned runs on the west coast.  Hopefully by this time next year, Brigham (along with Main, Beavan, Gomez, and Murphy) will be experiencing the same career renaissance that Kasey Kiker is enjoying this year.  

Michael Kirkman - In a rotation featuring four prospects (Michael Main, Blake Beavan, Tim Murphy, and Kennil Gomez), Kirkman is the one Bakersfield starter who has not faltered out of the gate.  After walking nearly a batter per inning in a little less than 60 innings in 2006 and 2007, Kirkman's 21 yo season last year must have been a huge relief for the LHP as he dropped his walk rate to less than 3BB/9 and his WHIP from greater than 2.0 to less than 1.3.  In 24 innings this year, Kirkman has struck out more than a hitter per inning while posting a 2.89 ERA.  Unfortunately, Kirkman's walk-rate appears to be creeping up (>4BB/9) and his .148 BAA with runners in scoring position is more than 100 points lower than his BAA in all other situations.  Although Kirkman's progress the last 1+ seasons is encouraging, his days with a sub-3.00 (or even sub-4.00) ERA are numbered.  By the end of the season, you can expect the Rangers' minor league gurus to be discussing whether Kirkman might have the same type of bullpen success that Zach Phillips is enjoying this year.

Tim Smith - Smith has gotten better as he has advanced - 277/388/373/761 in Spokane/Clinton in 2007, 297/356/448/804 in Clinton in 2008, and 351/422/509/931 in Bakersfield thus far in 2009.  Unfortunately, Smith's AVG and SLG in 2009 have benefited from a 429 BABIP despite a line drive rate that is below 10%.  Unless he is able to increase his homerun rate (<4%) or decrease his strikeout rate (>20%), Smith's Bakersfield stats are likely to slip into the 290/360/440/800 range that is reserved for 23 yo non-prospects in the Cal League.

Looking to get a jump on who the next great Rangers prospect might be?  Checking the myriad minor league reports from Spring Training and the month-to-month statistical progressions of players in 2008 (and 2007 if available) are great ways to identify candidates to be this year's Derek Holland or Jose Vallejo.  But equally telling is what the Rangers' minor league brain-trust thinks about a player.  You can figure out what the team thinks based upon where they assign players at the beginning of the year and how aggressively players are promoted during the year.  Prospects who are assigned or promoted to leagues where they will compete against much older players have an uncanny knack for becoming productive major leaguers.  In fact, I argue that the single most telling statistic in predicting whether a minor league player will progress to the major leagues is Age Relative to League (ARL).

Anecdotal Support for the Value of ARL

You can use Baseball Reference to sort minor league players at any given level using any statistical measure that the site maintains.  When you do that, you'll note that the most effective way to identify future major leaguers among the players in A+, AA, or AAA for almost any given year is to sort based upon age.  Sorting A+ players in 2003 using various stats produces the following lists:

Top 5 Starting Pitchers

by Age              by K/BB             by K/9IP             by WHIP             by ERA

G Miller             D Bush             C Hamels           C Young            G Mata

Z Greinke         C Young            S Kazmir            Z Greinke          Z Greinke

E Santana        G Bruso            R Hannaman    G Mata               C Young

S Kazmir           L DiNardo        R Currier             L Dinardo         B Borner

C Hamels         E Ulloa             J Dominguez      N Ungs             M Peterson

Top 5 Position Players

by Age              by OPS               by BB/K               by OBP               by AVG

J Guzman        C Shelton           J Reed                C Shelton           J Weber

A Marte             D Clark               C Kotchman       K Thompson     C Shelton         

D Navarro        J Weber              D Kelly                 J Reed               G Jacobs

S Santos          G Jacobs           H Bledsoe          C Kotchman      C Kotchman

J Loney             D McPherson    K Thompson      T Self                  J Kroeger

ARL becomes ridiculously effective when you use a performance stat or two to rank players who are young for their level in a given year. Take 2002 and 2003 as examples:

In 2002, the eight starting pitchers who logged at least 20 innings in A+, were 20 or less, struck out more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and had an ERA under 4 were Jeremy Bonderman, Travis Blackley, Adam Wainwright, Fernando Cabrera, Dustin Moseley, Rich Harden, Oliver Perez, and Francisco Cruceta.  In 2003, thirteen pitchers exceeded the same thresholds (Greg Miller, Zach Greinke, Ervin Santana, Emiliano Fruto, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Ricky Nolasco, Renyel Pinto, Blake Hawksworth, and Michael Hinckley).  More than 50% of these pitchers have pitched at the major league level and 33% have or appear likely to appear in an all-star game.

And the phenomenon is not restricted to pitchers.  The list of 18-20 yo position players with at least 100 ABs of 800 OPS hitting in A+ in 2002 comprised Jose Lopez, Jose Reyes, James Loney, Grady Sizemore, Dave Krynzel, Will Smith, Corey Hart, and Rocco Baldelli.  The 2003 list was Dioner Navarro, Andy Marte, Franklin Gutierrez, Shin-Soo Choo, Joe Mauer, Justin Huber, Josh Barfield, Josh Kroeger, Jeff Mathis, Jayson Nix, David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion, and Casey Kotchman. More than 75% of these players have accumulated significant playing time at the major league level and more than 33% have or appear destined to appear in an all-star game or two.

Minor League Progression as a Function of ARL

According to Baseball Reference, the average ages for players in 2008 in the leagues where Rangers prospects will be playing this year were:

Arizona Rookie League (ARL) - 20.1

Northwest League (NWL) - 21.2

South Atlantic League (SAL) - 21.7

California League (CAL) - 22.7

Texas League - 24.2

Pacific Coast League (PCL) - 26.9

Using the age cut-offs below allows you to identify the players who are among the youngest 10-15% in each of the indicated leagues.

A  - 19 and under

A+ - 20 and under

AA - 21 and under

AAA - 22 and under

The majority of the players (~65%) for each level are typically found in the following age ranges:

A  - 20-23

A+ - 21-24

AA - 22-26

AAA - 23-29

The remaining minor leaguers exceed the age ranges listed above and comprise the "old for league" group.

Using these cutoffs to classify players for any given league in any given year and then tracking the progress of the players reveals that the development rates for young players are dramatically accelerated relative to players who are age-appropriate or old for their leagues.  As an example, I used the 3 year progress of the 1259 prospects and non-prospects who played in A or A+ in 2002.  By 2004, approximately 30% of the players (209 pitchers and 180 hitters) had advanced at least two levels.  By 2008, 10% of the 1259 players (74 hitters and 52 pitchers) had received more than a token number of innings or at bats at the major league level.  As can be seen in the table below, the statistical profiles for the young players are dramatically different than the older players.

Pitchers

                                       Young for League       Age Appropriate           Old for League

Total Players                             85                                 354                               195

% advancing 1 level/yr           71%                               29%                              23%

# w/50+ ML IP                           34                                 14                                   4

Hitters

                                         Young for League     Age Appropriate        Old for League

Total Players                             84                                 359                               179

% advancing 1 level/yr            60%                              23%                              21%

# w/100+ ML AB's                     36                                 30                                   8

Young for their league players are almost three times as likely as other players to advance by at least one level per year and more than 10 times as likely to get to the major leagues.  Although young for their league players accounted for only 13% of all of the players considered, they produced 56% of the players who are now playing in the majors.  Incredibly, more than 40% of the players who were young for their league in 2002 have reached the majors and received significant playing time. 

Worth noting is that the young-for-their-league players rarely ranked at the top of their respective leagues in major offensive or pitching categories.  However, the young for their league players tended to improve statistically relative to their peers as they advanced through the minor leagues.  Most striking was the observation that the young hitters who advanced at least one level per year had an average OPS improvement of 17 points per league.  That doesn't sound like a lot until you realize that, according to MinorLeagueSplits (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html), an average minor league player who is not improving should experience an approximately 50-60 point drop in OPS for each level that he moves up.  That means that the young prospects are improving their performance by ~70 OPS points per year.  In contrast, age-appropriate and old hitters who advanced at least one level per year between 2002 and 2004 saw an average decrease of 10 OPS points for each level that they advanced which means that they are losing nearly 30 OPS points per year to their younger teammates.  Assuming it takes a player four years to go from low A to the majors, young prospects, on average, see a nearly 300 point improvement in their OPS skills whereas the remaining players who similarly advance the four levels to the majors improve their OPS by less than 200 points.  Worth noting is that these figures don't even account for the overwhelming majority of age appropriate players who stall out before reaching the major leagues 

Why Should You Care?

The Rangers have recently assigned prospects to the various teams that comprise their minor league system.  Those prospects who are young for the league to which they were assigned represent the guys worth monitoring in the coming year. 

Oklahoma

Neftali Feliz (20) and Derek Holland (22) - If they remain healthy, both pitchers will contribute to future Ranger teams.  In the meantime, both pitchers will spend time in the PCL where Feliz will be the youngest starting pitcher and Holland will be among the five youngest. 

Key stat to track - K/BB ratio - The Top10 starting pitchers in 2008 averaged a K/BB ratio of 3.5 as AAA pitchers prior to making their ML debuts.  Holland's K/BB ratio in 2008 was 4.0 so he appears to be poised to hit that threshold in his first go at AAA.  Feliz will likely need to see an improvement in his walk rate from the 3.6 BB/9IP that he posted in 2008 to significantly improve his 2.9 K/BB.

Frisco

Kasey Kiker (21) and Omar Poveda (21) - Although it seems that they've been around forever, LHP Kiker and RHP Poveda are among the youngest pitchers in the Texas League.  Kiker's year in Bakersfield (4.73 ERA, 8.2 K/9IP, 2.7 BB/9IP, .292 BAA) hurt his prospect status perhaps as much as anyone in the Rangers' system last year (Top 5 prospect before/Top 20 prospect after 2008 season).  Poveda's numbers in Bakersfield (4.47 ERA, 9.7 K/9IP, 4 BB/9IP, .241 BAA) were only slightly better than Kiker's, but he was credited with developing a curveball during the season that nicely complements his low 90's fastball and plus change-up.  Both pitchers received very favorable reviews for their work in Spring Training this year.

Key stat to track - ERA - Though ERA is often ridiculed as an archaic stat (I happen to disagree, but I'll save that for another FanPost), it is important for Poveda and Kiker to show that they have mastered the fine art of run prevention. The difference in average ERA between the Cal League and Texas League is not as big as you would think (4.51 vs 4.36 in 2008), so a sub-4 ERA from either prospect would indicate a significant improvement in performance. 

Marcus Lemon (20) - Lost among the Rangers many prospects, Lemon was among the most productive middle-infielders in the minors until a dismal August turned a great season (315/410/460/870) into a very good one (298/376/437/813).  In fact, among the seven middle infield prospects ranked among BA's Top 100 in 2009, Lemon trailed only Jason Donald (888 OPS as a 23 yo in AA) as a hitter in 2008.  Lemon will apparently remain at SS for his age 20 season in Frisco where he will be among the youngest position players in AA. 

Key stat to track - OPS - The biggest jump in the minors (A+ to AA) has been handled with style by many of the recent Rangers hitting prospects (Borbon, Vallejo, Boggs, Davis, Ramirez, and Duran to name a few).  Given his mature approach at the plate and his developing gap power, expect Lemon to come through with a 750-800 OPS in 2009 and make it increasingly difficult to ignore him as a legitimate prospect.

Manny Pina (21) - Defensively gifted catcher showed improvement with the bat in 2008, (267/317/360/677), but opposing pitchers no doubt continue to view his spot in the line-up as a reprieve. 

Key stat to track - OBP - An IsoP of less than 100 suggests that Pina is unlikely to develop power.  Because he is a good contact hitter, it seems possible that Pina could take more pitches without significantly increasing his K-rate and decreasing his batting average.  If taking more pitches increased Pina's walk-rate, then a corresponding increase in OBP to something along the lines of .350 could help cement Pina's standing as "the future backup catcher for the Rangers." 

Bakersfield

Blake Beavan (20) and Michael Main (20) - The two RH power pitchers had somewhat disappointing seasons in 2008.  Although his ERA (2.37), walk-rate (1.5 BB/9IP), BAA (.234), and K/BB (3.65) were outstanding for a 19 yo debuting in a full season league, Beavan's K-rate (5.4 K/9IP) didn't come close to what you expect from a top pitching prospect.  Main lost time due to a rib injury that limited him to 58.2 IP.  If Beavan and Main can survive the pitcher killer that is Bakersfield and the Cal League, then look for the two pitchers to be viewed as the next saviors for the pitching starved Rangers.

Key stats to track - K-rate (Beavan) and K/BB (Main) - Reports indicate that Beavan needs to improve his slider and change-up.  If successful, Beavan should see an increase in strikeouts.  If he can push his k-rate above the 1K/IP that most prospectors seek, then look for Beavan's name to begin appearing in discussions of top pitching prospects.  Unlike Beavan, Main's stuff has never been questioned.  Better control would allow Main to improve the one statistic that has been borderline thus far in his minor league career (career 3.4 BB/9IP) and force opposing hitters to hit his apparently lethal three pitch repertoire.

Engel Beltre (19) - Assigned to Bakersfield after spending his 18 yo season as the youngest starting position player in the Midwest League, Beltre received rave reviews during Spring Training.  Despite leading the MWL in hits, his 2008 stat-line (283/308/403/711) was interesting only in regard to revealing his weaknesses and showing that he can be a productive player despite them. 

Key stat to track - Walk rate - My favorite comp for Beltre is Ruben Mateo, not so much because I believe it, but because it allows me to understand what people might see when they watch Beltre play.  Mateo put up a 260/309/401/710 line as an 18 yo in A-ball that is reminiscent of Beltre's season in 2008.  Mateo put up a 314/359/509/868 as a 19 yo in High A that launched his life as a prospect.  If Beltre can learn to walk, then perhaps he will explode just like Mateo did in 1997.

Jose Felix (20) - In his US debut last year in the MWL, the RH catcher got off to a hot start at the plate and then settled in for a solid, though unspectacular line of 262/300/305/605.  Felix isn't at the same level as Ramirez, Teagarden, and Saltalamacchia, but he joins Pina, de los Santos, and Telis to provide the Rangers with a second tier of catching prospects that is equal to many team's first tier.

Key stat to track - SLG - In 302 AB's in 2008, Felix had 10 doubles and 1 HR.  Until he shows some ability to hit for power, it is unlikely that he will progress much further in the system.  Fortunately, Felix has gone from an extreme pitcher's league to an extreme hitter's league, so this could be a great opportunity for him to show a bit of pop.

Hickory

Martin Perez (18) - Perez' standing as a prospect derives more from scouting reports and his ability to compete against much older competitors than from the stat line that he posted as the youngest starter in the NWL in 2008 (3.65 ERA, 7.7 K/9IP, 4.1 BB/9IP, .274 BAA).  ST 2009 was filled with stories of Perez' exploits, so expect big things from the diminutive lefty as he pitches as one of the youngest starters in the SAL.

Key stat to track - K/BB ratio - Young pitchers tend to maintain or even improve their K-rates as they advance from one level to the next, so it would not be a surprise if Perez pushed his k-rate into the 9K/9IP range.  Improved control would go a long way toward bringing Perez into the 3 K/BB that you like to see in a starting pitching prospect. 

Wilmer Font (18) - Scouting reports from Spring Training indicate that the big RHP has improved his breaking ball and change-up.  If he can control these along with his mid- to high-90's fastball, then look for Font to post crazy numbers in Hickory and ascend prospect rankings in a way that is reminiscent of Feliz in 2008.   

Key stat to track - IP - Although he remains very young for his league, it is important for Font to begin piling up competitive innings so that he can learn what works and what he needs to improve.  If Font can pitch 60-80 innings in 2009, then he will be set up for ~100 innings in Bakersfield/Frisco as a 20 yo in 2010 and in the picture for big league innings in 2011 or 2012.

Joseph Ortiz (18) - The second youngest member of the Crawdads, the LHP features a 90-92 MPH fastball and a very good slider.  Pitching out of the bullpen for Clinton in 2008, Ortiz posted a 1.97 ERA, 7 K/9IP, 4.5 BB/9IP, and a .204 BAA in 32 innings spanning 23 games.  

Key stat to track - K/9IP - Ortiz was ridiculously young for full season baseball last year.  He is among the youngest players in the SAL again this year.  Repeating the level means that he will need to improve his performance or risk becoming even more lost in the Rangers prospect shuffle.  Moving his k-rate to above 1 hitter per inning would certainly strengthen Ortiz' chances of being in the discussion of intriguing left-handed pitchers in the Rangers' system. 

Wilfredo Boscan (19) - Although a year older than Perez, Boscan's assignment to Hickory will have him competing against players who will on average be 4 years older than him.  Boscan's stats in 2008 were spectacularly balanced (3.12 ERA, 9 K/9IP, 1.3 BB/9IP, 1.5 GO/FO).  Noteworthy among the many stories in Spring Training was that Boscan's fastball was touching 93 MPH.  That is reminiscent of ST reports in 2008 that indicated that Derek Holland had experienced a slight uptick in velocity after posting an impressively balanced stat line in the NWL in 2007.

Key stat to track - BAA - The lone blemish on Boscan's 2008 stat line was BAA (.251).  A BAA of .225 would likely indicate that Boscan's stuff was improving and would go a long way to preparing him for time in Bakersfield.

Carlos Pimental (19) - Another teenager in the Hickory starting rotation, the RHP comes off a successful NWL season (65 IP, 3.31 ERA, 7.4 K/9IP, 4.3 BB/9IP, .204 BAA).  In their discussion of the Top20 NWL prospects after last season, BA mentioned that several scouts were very excited by Pimental's potential.  Improved control and command of his low-90's fastball would go a long way toward cementing Pimental's prospect status.

Key stat to track - K/9IP - Pimental's K-rate in 2008 fell dramatically from the 12.5 K/9IP that he enjoyed in the ARL in 2007.  If Pimental can re-discover his strike-out pitch, then he will get more mentions when prospect gurus run down the list of interesting Rangers prospects.

Clark Murphy (19) - The left-handed 1st baseman hit 358/435/526/962 in 95 Arizona Rookie League at bats after signing last year.  Murphy's k-rate (18%), walk-rate (11%), and XBH rate (11%) were all very impressive for a high school slugger in his first year.  Murphy could prove to be the Crawdads' best hitter in 2009.

Key stat to track - OPS.  It can't be easy to be a 1B in a system where your OPS will likely be compared to what is being posted by Davis, Smoak, and Moreland.  Even worse is being in a league with an average OPS (706) that was almost fifty points lower in 2008 than the leagues where the other prospects are playing (CAL: 752 OPS, TL: 754 OPS).  Although it came in a small sample size, Murphy's impressive first year OPS did happen in a league with an average OPS that was close to that of SAL (721 vs 706).

Leonel de los Santos (19) - The smallish (170 lbs) catcher gets raves for his defense. His work with the bat in the Arizona Rookie League was uninspiring (258/299/358/657), though his contact rate was solid (22 SO in 168 plate appearances).  Santos' profile is reminiscent of Manny Pina.

Key stat to track - OBP.  Strong defensive catchers who can make a contribution on offense are extremely valuable.  Given his relatively small size, it seems unlikely that de los Santos will develop into a power hitter.  An OBP above .350 would go a long way toward making the catcher an asset in the bottom third of a line-up and more than an after-thought when baseball experts talk about the Rangers' depth at catcher.

A Promotion will Make These Players Young for Their League

Matt West (20)

Fabio Castillo (20)

Kennil Gomez (21)

Tommy Hunter (22)

Justin Smoak (22)

Jose Vallejo (22)

John Whittleman (22)

The Rangers window of contention is expected to open in 2010 and should last at least five years assuming there are not widespread problems with player health and/or development.  Curious about what the Rangers’ rosters might look like during that span, I built a spreadsheet using player salaries and service times from http://rangers.scottlucas.com (Thanks, Scott) and player ages from http://minormoosings.blogspot.com (Thanks, Goyogringo). 

The following assumptions were used to project the Rangers’ future rosters:
(1) Pre-arb salaries were estimated to be $500k.
(2) Arbitration year salaries were estimated based on players’ expected ML production (e.g., Davis/Feliz/Holland received $3M, $5M, and $10M; Teagarden/D Murphy/Kiker received $1.5M, $2.5M, and $4M).
(3) Prospects were expected to advance one level per year and make their major league debuts in the year after they first appeared in AAA.
(4) The starting rotation included 8-12 starters for each season to account for attrition.
(5) Hamilton, Wilson, and Francisco were signed to contracts that extended one year beyond their arbitration years.
(6) No player trades or free agent acquisitions were predicted

Shown below are projected rosters for the 2010, 2012, and 2014 seasons.  The ages listed for the players are as of opening day for the indicated year.  The benches in 2010 and 2012 have one extra player since I could not decide whether to use Boggs or Murphy as the 4th outfielder.  The bullpens have eight pitchers instead of seven to provide some sense of who the first call-up might be.

Line-up 2010                           Line-up 2012                              Line-up 2014
Player   Pos   Age   Sal (M)   Player    Pos   Age   Sal (M)    Player   Pos     Age   Sal (M)
Davis  1B/DH   24      $0.5      Davis    1B/DH  26      $3.0       Davis    1B/DH  28    $10
Smoak   1B      22      $0.5      Smoak     1B     24      $0.5       Smoak      1B     26    $7
Kinsler   2B      27      $4.0      Kinsler     2B     29      $7.0       Lemon      2B     25    $1.5
Young    3B      33      $11       Young       3B     35      $12        Duran       3B     29    $2.5
Andrus   SS     21      $0.5      Andrus      SS     23     $2.0        Andrus     SS     25   $7.0
Salt…      C      24      $0.5       Salt…        C      26      $4.0        Tea             C     30   $4.0
Borbon   OF     24      $0.5      Borbon     OF     26      $0.5        Beltre       OF     24   $0.5
Cruz        OF     29      $0.5      Cruz          OF     31      $4.0        Boggs      OF    31    $4.0
Hamilton OF   28      $6.0       Hamilton  OF    30      $9.0        Borbon     OF    28    $4.0 
           
Bench  2010                            Bench  2012                              Bench 2014
Tea          C      26     $0.5        Tea            C       28     $1.5       Pina           C      26     $1.5
Ramirez C/DH 25    $0.5        Ramirez C/DH  27     $0.5       Ramirez C/DH  29     $2.5
Boggs     OF    27     $0.5        Boggs      OF     29     $1.5       Golson     OF     28     $2.0
Murphy    OF    28     $0.5        Murphy     OF     30     $2.5       Vallejo     UIF     27     $2.0
Duran     UIF    25     $0.5        Vallejo     UIF     25    $0.5      
            
Rotation   2010                       Rotation 2012                             Rotation 2014 
Mill/Pad   #1 35/32  $12         Holland    #1      25     $0.5        Feliz         #1      25    $5.0
McCarthy #2    26     $2.5       Feliz          #2       23    $0.5        Holland   #2      27     $5.0
Harrison  #3    24     $0.5       Harrison  #3       26    $1.5        Main         #3      25    $3.0
Holland   #4     23     $0.5       Hurley      #4       26    $1.5        Harrison  #4      28    $4.0
Feldman  #5    27     $1.0       Feldman #5       29    $3.0         Perez       #5      23    $0.5
Feliz          #6    21     $0.5       Main         #6       23    $0.5         Hurley     #6       28   $3.0
Hurley       #7    24     $0.5      Diamond #7       29    $0.5         Beavan    #7      25    $0.5
Diamond #8    27     $0.5       Poveda    #8       24    $0.5         Poveda    #8      26    $1.5
                                                   Beavan    #9       23     $0.5         Boscan   #9      24    $0.5
                                                   Boscan   #10     22    debut        Font       #10      23    $0.5
                                                                                                           Ramirez #11     24    $0.5
                                                                                                           Ross      #12     24    $0.5

Bullpen  2010                         Bullpen 2012                                Bullpen 2014 
Francisco Cl    30   $4.0        Francisco Cl     32     $7.0          Madrigal   Cl      30   $4.0
Wilson      LH   29   $3.0        Hunter      RH    25     $0.5          Diamond  RH    31   $2.5
Eyre           RH  31   $1.0        Kiker         LH    24      $0.5          Hunter      RH    27   $2.5
Hunter      RH   23   $0.5        Madrigal  RH    28     $1.5           Kiker         LH    26   $1.5
Madrigal   RH   26   $0.5        Moscoso RH    28     $0.5          Moscoso   RH   30   $2.5
Moscoso   RH  26   $0.5        Nippert     RH   31     $2.0          Murphy T    LH    26   $1.5
Nippert      RH  29   $0.5        Strop         RP    26    $0.5          Strop           RH   28   $2.5
Rupe         RH  26   $1.5        Wilson      LH    31    $5.0           Young         LH   27   $1.5
            
Other Roster Candidates    Other Roster Candidates         Other Roster Candidates  
Golson     OF   24   $0.5        Moreland  1B    26    $0.5            Moreland   1B   28    $0.5
Arias         UIF  25   $0.5        Pina            C    24     $0.5            Murphy C   1B   24    $0.5
Vallejo      UIF  23   $0.5        Beltre         OF   22   debut           Bannister   RP  30    $1.5
Bannister RP  26   $0.5        Golson       OF   26    $1.5            Garr             RP 30    $1.5
Gabbard  RP   28   $0.5        Arias           UIF  27    $1.5            Jones         RP  27    $1.5
Garr          RP   26  debut       Duran        UIF   27    $1.5            Mendoza    RP  30   $4.0
Jones       RP  23  debut        Lemon      UIF   23    $0.5           Wieland      SP   24   $0.5
Kiker         RP  22   debut       Bannister  RP   28    $0.5    
Mendoza  RP  26   $0.5         Eyre           RP   33    $2.0      
Moscoso  RP  26    $0.5        Gabbard    RP   30    $2.5      
Murphy T  RP  22  debut        Garr            RP   28    $0.5      
Strop         RP  24   $0.5         Jones         RP   25    $0.5      
Young       RP  23  debut        Mendoza    RP   28    $1.5      
Main          SP   21 debut        Rupe          RP    28    $2.0      
Poveda     SP  22  debut        Young        RP    25    $0.5

Avg Age - 25 man roster
2010 – 26
2011 – 26.1
2012 – 27
2013 – 26.8
2014 – 26.8

Total Projected Salary - 25 man roster
2010 – $54 M
2011 - $56.5 M
2012 - $72 M
2013 - $96 M
2014 - $88 M

2010
The addition of Borbon in centerfield and Smoak at 1B yields a line-up that is projected to remain the same until 2013.  Exercising the option of either Millwood or Padilla provides a veteran starter, but the rotation looks to be a weak spot with only eight pitchers projected to be ready for major league duty.  Adding a pitcher like Sheets on a one or two year deal would be for the best and there is room in the budget with a projected total salary of $54M.  The additions of Moscoso and Hunter and the continuing maturation of Madrigal, Rupe, Wilson, and Francisco could make the bullpen a strength.

2011
This looks to be the first of a three-year run where the Rangers could be among teh most talented teams in baseball.  The line-up should be excellent with Hamilton, Davis, Smoak, Cruz, and potentially Ramirez anchoring the 3-7 slots and Kinsler setting the table.  Unless a veteran is added to the rotation, the starters will be very young with McCarthy, Feldman, and Diamond being the elder statesmen at the age of 28.  Holland and Feliz might be ready to lead the starters.  The bullpen should be a strength with Kiker and Strop stepping into prominent roles and Francisco, Wilson, and Madrigal handling the 8th and 9th innings.  McCarthy will be in his final year and potentially available in trade.  An outfielder or two (Boggs, Murphy, Cruz, Golson) and a catcher (with Pina ready to step in as the backup) could be used in a deal to bring in a key player for a playoff run. 

2012
The line-up should be extremely potent with everyone except Young either in or entering their prime.  Main and/or Beavan might be ready to join a rotation that could be anchored by Holland, Feliz, and Harrison.   With Madrigal, Strop, and Kiker ready to handle late-inning duties and Garr, Jones, and Young ready for the major leagues, Wilson and Francisco, who will both be in the final years of their contracts, might be traded to bring in prospects to re-stock the farm.

2013
With Hamilton, Kinsler, Saltalamacchia, Cruz, and Young in the final years of their contracts, this could be the end of an era in Rangers baseball.  Player salaries will approach $100M.  Davis, Smoak, Saltalamacchia, Borbon, Andrus, and Ramirez will all be in their mid- to late-20’s.  If all goes well, Beltre should be ready to impact the major league team.  The rotation should be nearing its apex with Holland, Feliz, Main, Perez, and Harrison in the starting 5 and other talented arms ready to plug in if needed.  Francisco and Wilson will have departed but the bullpen will remain a talented group with Madrigal or Strop likely ready to close.  Hamilton, Cruz, Saltalamacchia, and Kinsler could either anchor another playoff run or be traded in the final years of their contracts to bring in young talent that could extend the Rangers window of playoff contention.

2014
The line-up will change dramatically with Lemon, Duran, Teagarden, and Beltre taking over for Kinsler, Young, Saltalamacchia, and Hamilton.  Player salaries will drop back below $90M providing enough roster flexibility to bring in a big-name free agent or trade acquisition to bolster the line-up if needed.  Pitching should be the team’s strength with Feliz, Holland, Main, Perez, Beavan, Harrison, Hurley, Boscan, Font, and Ramirez all aged 23-28 and Madrigal, Hunter, Kiker, Moscoso, Murphy, Strop, Young, and Diamond forming a talented and experienced bullpen. 

A number of Rangers prospects who are expected to start the season in AA or AAA have a chance to impact the major league club in 2009.  If injuries, ineffectiveness, or trades at the big league level do not force the Rangers to promote a prospect, then adding a minor league player to the big club will likely only happen if the Rangers believe he will improve the performance of the major league team. 

Determining when a prospect is ready for a big league promotion is best accomplished by a combination of scouting and statistics.  Scouts and coaches (or Jason Parks and Zywica) can determine if a player has made adequate progress with his change-up or outfield defense or pitch recognition or whatever was deemed critical for the player’s development.  Statistics indicate whether a player’s skills are being efficiently converted to production.  One tool that is available for fans to track whether a prospect might be ready for the majors is major league equivalents (MLE).

The MLE concept was first described by Bill James in the mid-80’s and posits that there is a strong correlation between major and minor league stats.  During the past 20+ years, James and others have developed algorithms that convert minor league stats to major league stats and vice versa.  MLEs have proven to be almost as predictive of future major league performance as a major league player’s prior year stats.  A variety of web-sites provide custom tools for converting minor league numbers to major league numbers and vice-versa.  If you are interested, Dan Szymborski provides one of the more straightforward descriptions of how to calculate MLEs at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/scholars/czerny/articles/calculatingMLEs.htm. 

Rangers prospects who might emerge as at least major league average players in 2009 are presented below.  Two things worth noting:
(1) There will likely be specific things that each of these players are working on that will keep them from posting optimal minor league numbers (e.g., Feliz will likely limit the use of his fastball in 2009 to develop his off-speed pitches).  This will effectively suppress the prospect’s stats.   
(2) Prospects are often promoted to provide them with major league experience so that they are better prepared to contribute in future years.  If that is the case for the 2009 Rangers, then it is likely that one or more players will be promoted before they can be expected to perform as a league average player (e.g. Elvis Andrus).

Presented below are the average performances of American League players by position in 2008 according to http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?lg=AL&team=TOT&year=2008.  I used the MLE calculator at http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html to convert the ML average hitting numbers to AA and AAA equivalents.  There is not a good calculator for major league equivalents for minor league pitchers so I reverse-engineered the calculator used by Minor League Splits (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com) to convert the American League average starter and reliever numbers to AA and AAA equivalents.  Minor League Splits was the source of the career statistics that are listed after the name of each Rangers prospect.  Minor League Splits is also the source of the 2008 stats and MLEs that are provided for some of the players listed below. 

The combination of major league averages, MLE’s, and minor league numbers for the various prospects are used to provide some sense of what statistical weaknesses individual players can improve to enhance their chances of becoming league average or better players. 

Starting Pitchers
Major League Average – 1.39 WHIP, 6 K/9IP, 3 BB/9IP, 1 HR/9IP
AAA Equivalent – 1.25 WHIP, 6.7 K/9IP, 2.3 BB/9IP, 0.7 HR/9IP
AA Equivalent – 1.25 WHIP, 7.5 K/9IP, 2.2 BB/9IP, 0.8 HR/9IP

Near-Ready Rangers Prospects
Tommy Hunter – 1.18 WHIP, 5.8 K/9IP, 1.7 BB/9IP, 0.8 HR/9IP (career minor league averages)
Hunter’s first exposure to major league hitters wasn’t pleasant, but his early AAA numbers suggest that he is close to being ready for the majors.   Hunter’s 50+ AAA innings in 2008 translated to an MLE of 1.22 WHIP, 4.2 K/9IP, 1.8 BB/9IP, and 1.5 HR/9IP.  If he can decrease the homeruns and increase his strikeout rate, then Hunter should be ready to provide the Rangers with a league average pitcher. 

Derek Holland – 1.03 WHIP, 9.7 K/9IP, 2.5 BB/9IP, 0.4 HR/9IP
Holland’s minor league numbers indicate that he is on-track to be an above average major league starter.  If Holland can hit his career numbers while pitching in AA or AAA this year, then he would project to post numbers akin to the 2008 version of James Shields (~3.5 ERA, ~1.15 WHIP, ~8 K/9IP, ~3 BB/9IP).

Neftali Feliz – 1.13 WHIP, 11.2 K/9IP, 4 BB/9IP, 0.2 HR/9IP
In 45 AA innings in 2008, Feliz’ MLE consisted of a 3.16 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 9.3 K/9IP, 4.6 BB/9IP, and 0.2 HR/9IP.  Except for the walks, those translated stats suggest that Feliz is ready for a spot in a major league rotation.  If Feliz can add a second plus offering to his repertoire while continuing to dominate AA hitters, then he will be ready for a starting role in the major leagues by 2010 at the latest.

Thomas Diamond – 1.35 WHIP, 9.5 K/9IP, 4.8 BB/9IP, 0.74 HR/9IP
Diamond’s career numbers, which are admittedly buoyed by his first two years in the minors, suggest that he is on-track to carve out a major league career.  The stat to watch in 2009 will be walks – if Diamond can drop his walk-rate to below 3 per 9 innings, then he has a legitimate shot to become at least an average major league pitcher.   


Relief Pitchers
Major League Average – 1.39 WHIP, 7.5 K/9IP, 3.9 BB/9IP, 0.9 HR/9IP
AAA Equivalent – 1.25 WHIP, 8.3 K/9IP, 3 BB/9IP, 0.6 HR/9IP
AA Equivalent – 1.25 WHIP, 9.4 K/9IP, 2.8 BB/9IP, 0.7 HR/9IP

Near-Ready Rangers Prospects
Pedro Strop – 1.23 WHIP, 11.7 K/9IP, 4.1 BB/9IP, 0.8 HR/9IP (career minor league averages)
Strop’s career walk-rate is high but the rest of his career numbers suggest that he can be an average to above average relief pitcher.  If he can remain healthy and drop his walk rate to ~3 per 9 innings, look for Strop to spend time in the Rangers bullpen in 2009.

Guillermo Moscoso – 1.08 WHIP, 9.5 K/9IP, 1.9 BB/9IP, 0.7 HR/9IP
Moscoso’s stats scream above-average starter. His repertoire and age relative to league suggest bullpen.  If Moscoso can remain healthy and post the same stats as a reliever in AA or AAA that he’s accumulated as a starter in the lower minors, then look for him to become an above average major league reliever in 2009 or 2010.
  
Beau Jones – 1.42 WHIP, 8.5 K/9IP, 5.0 BB/9IP, 0.5 HR/9IP
Jones’ career numbers include time as both a starter and reliever.  His 2008 numbers, which came primarily as a reliever, included a lower WHIP (1.30) and slightly lower walk-rate (4.3 BB/9IP).  If he can continue to push those two stat lines down in 2009, then it is likely that Jones will be challenging for a spot in the Rangers’ pen in 2010.

Brennan Garr – 1.36 WHIP, 10.2 K/9IP, 4.8 BB/9IP, 0.4 HR/9IP
Garr’s walk rate is the difference between being a candidate for the major league pen and being an after-thought in AA or AAA.  As with many of the pitchers on this list, Garr needs to improve his control in 2009 without sacrificing strikeouts or homeruns. 

Center Fielders
Major League Average – 269/334/412/746; 27 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 57 BB, 121 K
AAA Equivalent – 323/398/514/912; 39 2B, 7 3B, 21 HR, 77 BB, 112 K
AA Equivalent – 341/421/545/966; 39 2B, 7 3B, 23 HR, 84 BB, 110 K

Near Ready Rangers Prospects
Julio Borbon – 321/363/425/788; 32 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 29 BB, 62 K (2008 minor league averages)
Borbon’s numbers in Frisco (336/380/457/837 in 256 at bats) translate to an MLE of 272/307/352/659.  The MLE batting average would have placed Borbon as above average but the 307 OBP would have been almost 30 points below average in 2008.  If Borbon can improve his walk rate by 3-5% in 2009 while maintaining the high BA, look for him to be patrolling centerfield at RBiA by September.
 
Greg Golson – 265/310/411/721 (career); 286/337/440/777; 27 2B, 6 3B, 19 HR, 51 BB, 192 K (’08 est for 700 PA)
Golson’s 2008 OPS in 420 AA ABs was the highest of his career.  His walk-rate and power numbers don’t jump off the page, but they do suggest that he could be an average major leaguer.  As has been noted by others, Golson’s statistical flaw is his strike-out rate.  Assuming Golson maintains his career .350 BABIP, he could hit .310 and put himself on the prospect map in 2009 by simply reducing his strike-out rate to 20%.

Middle Infielders
Major League Average (SS and 2nd base) – 274/329/393/722; 32 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR,
AAA Equivalent – 325/389/473/862; 42 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 64 BB, 87 K
AA Equivalent – 346/414/503/917; 43 2B, 4 3B, 14 HR, 70 BB, 85 K

Near-Ready Rangers Prospects
Joaquin Arias – 293/319/401/720 (career minor league averages)
    ’08 est for 700 PA – 296/329/421/750; 22 2B, 13 3B, 10 HR, 30 BB, 79 K
Arias is a .290-.300 hitter with a good glove and not much else.  His slugging and OBP will likely keep him from being more than a bottom third starting SS or average utility infielder.  Assuming he begins the year in AAA, a sudden spike in his walk-rate could indicate that Arias is finally ready to become a major league shortstop.

Jose Vallejo – 292/345/425/760; 29 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 41 BB, 91 K (2008 averages)
Vallejo could take another big step up the prospect ladder if he proves that he can play shortstop and he increases his BA to over 310 without sacrificing his walk rate or power.  If successful, the resulting 310/365/450/815 line would look like what you would expect from an average major league shortstop playing in Frisco or Oklahoma.

Catchers
Major League Average – 258/322/393/715; 28 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR
AAA Equivalent – 306/379/484/863; 39 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 67 BB, 108 K
AA Equivalent – 327/403/517/920; 39 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 72 BB, 106 K

Near-Ready Rangers Prospect
Max Ramirez –  317/424/521/945 (career minor league averages)
’08 est for 600 PA – 347/439/628/1067; 38 2B, 4 3B, 38 HR, 84 BB, 138 K
 Ramirez’ MLE in 2008 (269/339/442/781) would have placed him third in hitting among AL catchers with at least 300 ABs.  If he can catch, Ramirez will likely be one of the best hitting catchers in the majors.


Corner Outfielders
Major League Average – 275/344/445/789; 32 2B, 4 3B, 20 HR
AAA Equivalent – 328/409/555/964; 42 2B, 5 3B, 28 HR, 112 K, 83 BB
AA Equivalent – 350/435/594/1029; 43 2B, 6 3B, 30 HR, 110 K, 90 BB

Near-Ready Rangers Prospect
Brandon Boggs – 257/362/463/825 (career minor league averages)
In 68 AAA at bats, Boggs’ 309/368/456/824 batting line was solid though probably not yet major league worthy.  As expected, his time in the major leagues was solid but unspectacular.  If Boggs is relegated to AAA in 2009, look for an improved slugging percentage to precede a mid-season call-up.    

Corner Infielders
Major League Average – 267/341/438/780; 30 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR
AAA Equivalent – 320/409/545/954; 41 2B, 3 3B, 28 HR, 87 BB, 110 K
AA Equivalent – 342/435/585/1020; 42 2B, 3 3B, 30 HR, 94 BB, 108 K

Near-Ready Rangers Prospect
Justin Smoak 
Smoak’s minor league resume is too sparse to predict what he should improve prior to a promotion to the big leagues.  Assuming he begins the year in Frisco, an OPS above 1000 would suggest that his time as a prospect will be short-lived.

Thanks to FanGraphs, I was able to piece together Bill James' projections for the 2009 Rangers.

Line-up                    Avg / OBP / SLG / OPS
Kinsler                      291 / 360 / 482 / 842
Young                       297 / 349 / 427 / 776
Hamilton                  310 / 384 / 556 / 940
Cruz                          278 / 352 / 533 / 885
Davis                        302 / 352 / 599 / 951
Byrd                          283 / 351 / 425 / 776
Blalock                     282 / 346 / 476 / 822
Teagarden              239 / 317 / 455 / 772
Laird                        263 / 318 / 396 / 714
Salta…                    262 / 349 / 424 / 773
Ramirez                  308 / 390 / 548 / 938
Murphy                    277 / 336 / 450 / 786
Duran                      269 / 315 / 433 / 748
Boggs                     253 / 359 / 452 / 811
Arias                       280 / 308 / 390 / 698
Bradley                   287 / 391 / 489 / 879
Check out the projections for Cruz, Davis, and Ramirez.  Wow!  Teagarden OPSing 772 as a rookie would make me very happy.

Rotation               GS / IP / ERA
Millwood               27 / 171 / 4.40
Padilla                  26 / 151 / 4.72
Feldman              25 / 153 / 4.64
McCarthy              23 / 121 / 4.26
Gabbard               26 / 137 / 4.82
Nippert                  12 / 96 /  4.97
Sorry, no projections for Hurley or Harrison
There must be something wrong here.  Surely, James can't believe that the Rangers will have six starters with sub-5.00 ERAs! 

Bullpen         G / IP / ERA
Francisco    57 / 61 / 3.55
Benoit          36 / 37 / 4.13
Wilson         52 / 48 / 4.49
Rupe           48 / 90 / 5.44
Loe              20 / 46 / 5.24
Sorry, no projections for Madrigal.
James doesn’t think much of the Rangers’ bullpen.  Based on his recent comments regarding his priorities for the offseason, I must assume that JD is using the same metrics as Bill James to project the Rangers' relievers in 2009.

If you prefer FanPosts that are short and relatively uncomplicated, I would recommend that you proceed no further with this one.  If you like long posts with data tables and no clear conclusions, then feel free to spend the next ten minutes of your life trying to wade through what follows.

The Rangers had five players on BA’s 2008 list of baseball’s Top 100 prospects and will likely have 6-8 prospects on the 2009 list.  Those who like to dismiss the importance of the minor leagues often use anecdotal evidence to suggest that outstanding prospects often fail to become productive major league players.  To understand if there is truth behind the anecdotes, I evaluated the major league performances of players who were ranked by BA to be among the Top100 prospects in baseball prior to the 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons.  I used ERA+ to evaluate the annual performances of the pitchers and OPS+ to evaluate the annual contributions of the hitters in years in which they accumulated at least 40 IP or 100 ABs at the major league level. 

As will be described below, the data were compiled and evaluated in a variety of ways to estimate the success/failure rates for top prospects, how quickly the prospects begin to perform at above average levels, how prospects at different positions perform, and how rankings correlate with major league performance. 

Two things worth noting before presenting the results are that:

(1) the data for players who were ranked multiple times between 2003 and 2007 were only used once in the analysis.  I used the highest ranking that the player achieved to bin his data.
(2) youthful prospects who are still progressing through the minor leagues and have thus far failed to play in the major leagues were not used in the analysis.

Success/Failure Rate
259 players from the five Top100 lists that were used for this analysis have either failed to progress through the minor leagues or have had at least one major league season with 40 IP or 100 ABs.  30 of the 259 players debuted in 2007 or 2008 and averaged an OPS+/ERA+ of less than 90 in the ML season(s) that they qualified.  Examples from this list of 30 players include Justin Upton, Phil Hughes, Eric Hurley, Homer Bailey, Luke Hochevar, Clay Buchholz, and Jonathan Sanchez.   In my opinion, it is still too early to determine if any or all of these players will become productive major league players, so I eliminated them from the calculations described below. The remaining 229 players were used to estimate the success/failure rates for the prospects ranked in 2003-2007. 

38 of the prospects (17% of the 229 considered) have failed to advance to the major leagues and are either out of baseball or struggling in the minor leagues.  Another 8% of the 229 players have received playing time in at least three major league seasons and have an average ERA+ or OPS+ below 90.  The remaining 75% of the 229 prospects considered have averaged an ERA+/OPS+ of at least 90 in their major league seasons.  133 players (almost 60% of the 229) have averaged an ERA+/OPS+ of more than 100 in the 1-5 major league seasons that they’ve had at least 100 AB’s or 40 IP.  Based on ERA+/OPS+, 3 out of 4 highly ranked prospects graduate to the major leagues as productive players and 3 out of 5 perform at above average levels beginning with their 1st or 2nd year seasons.

                                                                     # of Prospects        % of Total
Failed to advance to ML                                     38                          17
Averaged less than 90 ERA+/OPS+                19                             8
Averaged ERA+/OPS+ of 90-99                        37                          16
Averaged ERA+/OPS+ of 100 or greater      133                         59

The average ERA+/OPS+ for many of the players considered in this analysis were negatively affected by relatively poor debut seasons.  To address whether the highly ranked prospects develop into above average ML performers, I used the ERA+/OPS+ for each player’s best season to evaluate the same 229 players as above.  In this case, 181 of the highly-regarded prospects (79% of the 229 considered) posted at least one season with an ERA+/OPS+ of 100 or greater, revealing that 4 out of 5 highly ranked prospects post above average seasons within their first 1-3 years in the major leagues. 

Splitting the prospects into pitchers and position players reveals that of the 110 pitchers who qualified for this analysis, 82 (75%) have posted at least one season with an ERA+ above 100 and 89 of the 109 position players (82%) have posted an OPS+ above 100.  At least for the seasons considered here, there appears to be a slightly better chance that highly ranked hitters will turn into above average major leaguers than pitchers.

Success/Fail Rates Correlate with Prospect Rank
When the prospects are considered based upon where they were ranked, a very interesting trend is revealed.  As noted in the table below, more than 90% of the pitchers and hitters ranked among the Top25 graduate to the major leagues and post above average numbers.  Approximately 80% of the pitchers and hitters whose ranking topped out in the 26-75 range posted an ERA+ or OPS+ of greater than 100 in at least one of their first three seasons.  The successful graduation rates for pitchers and hitters falls to 69-75% for prospects ranked among the bottom 25. 

Ranking    ERA+ >100 (Total pitchers)    OPS+ >100 (Total hitters) 
Overall                     75% (110)                                  82% (109)               
Top25                      91% (31)                                    94% (40)
26-50                       79% (27)                                    80% (30)
51-75                        82% (27)                                   82% (19)
76-100                      69% (25)                                   75% (20)

The discrepancy in the success rates for the Top25 and Bottom25 prospects appears to be a reflection of the types of players that fall in the two categories.  The Bottom25 in the Top100 lists are heavily populated with very young players in the lower minors while the Top25 mostly comprises players at AA and up.  In fact, many of the players who made up the Top25 in the latter years used for this analysis were among the Bottom25 in the earlier rankings.  Because I only used the highest ranked position for each player, the success rates for the lower ranked brackets were reduced relative to what they would have been had I used the numbers for each player in each of the years that he was ranked.   

Annual Major League Performance
Of the prospects who graduate to the major leaguers, I was curious to know how well they perform in their rookie major league seasons and how much they improve during the course of their first five seasons.  As with the success/fail rates above, I looked at this subject in two ways.  Simply averaging the OPS+/ERA+ for all of the players with qualifying major league team reveals that the ranked prospects as a group start off as slightly above average major leaguers and progress to significantly above average producers by their third seasons (see table below). 

                  Avg ERA+/OPS+ (StDev)                      
   Yr 1               Yr 2            Yr 3            Yr 4              Yr 5
103 (32)      108 (32)    115 (30)     112 (28)      119 (31)

The standard deviations shown in parentheses above are relatively large, revealing that there is a broad range in performance among the players.  In contrast to the success/fail rates described above, the variance in performance cannot be explained by differences between the players ranked among the Top25 and the players ranked farther down on the list.  In fact, there is almost no difference between the major league performances of the players ranked in the Top25, 26-50, 51-75, and 76-100.  Instead, the bulk of the variance is due to differences in OPS+ between players at defensive positions (SS, 2B, C, CF) and players at offensive positions (1B, DH, 3B, COF) as well as differences in the ERA+ of starting pitchers and relief pitchers.  Below is a breakdown of the annual performances of players at the various positions.

                                             Avg ERA+/OPS+                      
Position   Players  Yr 1    Yr 2    Yr 3    Yr 4    Yr 5    3 Yr Avg   5 Yr Avg   ML Avg
1B/DH          16        109     131    126     126      122         122          123          115
2B                10          88       97     105      91       129           96           102           96
3B                17        103     109     108     131     145         107           119         109
C                  14          88       97      102     113     113          96            103           86
CF                15          87       90      104      96       121         94              99            97
COF             33          99      103     112    100      109         105          105          109
SS               11          80        91       88       99        87          86             89             94
LHP             24         103     116     107     91       NA          109            NA       
RHP            70         106      106     112    121     129         108          115
Reliever     16         157      141     172    151       NA        157   
The reliever category was created to account for the late inning relievers whose ridiculous ERA+ numbers skewed the pitcher data.  NA is used where too few players were available to provide an accurate estimate of performance.

The final three columns show the averages for the prospects at each position during their first 3 and 5 seasons along with the major league averages for the players at the corresponding positions during the 2007 season.  For the most part, the prospects play slightly below the league average for their position during their rookie years.  The prospects then out-perform the league average for most positions beginning in their 2nd year seasons and continue to improve thereafter. 

Top Prospects to Star Major Leaguers
Top prospects are often projected to be future major league stars.  To estimate how often this happens within the first five years of a top prospect’s major league career, I used the annual ERA+ and OPS+ for players who accrued major league service and calculated the percentage that posted great #’s (>119), above average #’s (100-119), below average #’s (80-99), and poor #’s (<80).         

ERA+/OPS+     Yr 1      Yr 2      Yr 3      Yr 4       Yr 5
     >119            23%      27%    42%      36%     46%
 100-119          29%      32%    26%      31%     24%
    80-99            28%     26%     18%      25%     19%
      <80              20%     15%     13%       8%      11%

Beginning with their rookie years, the performance levels of highly ranked prospects are close to equally distributed between the four performance classes used.  The performance distribution skews toward above-average levels by the players’ second seasons and is profoundly above average by their third seasons.  Perhaps the most noteworthy number in the table above is the one that shows that 42% of the prospects who are ranked among BA’s Top100 and who manage to get to the major leagues post an ERA+ or OPS+ of 120 or greater in their third seasons.  If you want to know where star major league players come from, look at BA’s lists of the Top100 rated prospects in baseball.    

What does this mean for the Rangers?
Barring trades involving Ranger prospects or young major leaguers, it is possible that a future Rangers team could feature eighteen players who appeared on at least one BA Top100 list (table below).  Using the results presented above, these current and future Rangers could be expected to perform in the major leagues at the levels presented in the right-hand column.  As noted in the “Likelihood” column, there is a very good chance that most of these players will one day become at least solid major league players.

Player            Projections:   Highest BA Rank     Likelihood    ML OPS+/ERA+    
Andrus                                                18                          94%                   89
Smoak                                             Top25                      94%                 123
Davis*                                              Top25                    100%                 123
Beltre                                               Top50                      80%                    99
MaxRam                                          Top50                      80%               103/123
Teagarden                                         77                          82%                  103
Borbon                                            Top100                    75%                    99

Feliz                                                  Top25                      91%                  108
Holland                                            Top25                      91%                  109
Main                                                 Top25                       91%                 108
Perez                                                Top25                      91%                 109
Ramirez                                           Top50                      79%                 108
Font                                                  Top50                      79%                 108
Diamond                                            52                          82%                 157
Hurley                                                 68                          82%                 108
Harrison                                             90                          69%                 109
Beavan                                            Top100                    69%                 108
Boscan                                            Top100                    69%                 108
* Davis’ inclusion is based on his likely ranking had he not been pushed to the major leagues in 2008.
The “Highest BA Rank” is either the highest rank that a prospect has already achieved or my estimates for high highly a player will be ranked during their minor league career.
MaxRam has two numbers in the OPS+ to address whether you think he will hit like a catcher or a 1B/DH.


Assuming the players reach the minor league ceilings projected above and the minor league players advance through the minors at a rate of 1-2 levels per year, then the 2011 Rangers line-up, rotation, and bullpen could look like:

Lineup                 ML Season      OPS
Kinsler (2B)               6th              125
Young (3B)              11th              100
Hamilton (RF)          5th               130
Smoak    (1B)          2nd               131
Davis (DH)               4th                126
MaxRam (C)            4th                126
Murphy (LF)              5th                100
Borbon (CF)             3rd               104
Andrus (SS)             2nd                 91     

Rotation             ML Season       ERA+
Holland                    3rd                 107
Feliz                         2nd                 106
Main                        2nd                  106
Harrison                 4th                    91
Hurley                     4th                   121
McCarthy                6th                   100

Bullpen              ML Season       ERA+
Francisco(?)          7th                  130
Madrigal                 4th                  120
Wilson                    6th   
Diamond               2nd                 141
Rupe                      4th
Hunter                   3rd
Strop                      3rd
Kiker                      2nd
Feldman                6th
Murphy                  2nd

By 2011, Beltre, Perez, Boscan, Beavan, and others will likely be at AA or AAA and ready to step in if needed.  A great offense coupled with above average pitching almost certainly equals playoff contention.

It started with Sabathia and Sheets. Cain, Greinke, and Nolasco followed.  Most recently, Peavy has been discussed as a possible acquisition target for the Rangers this off-season.  Each of these pitchers is undoubtedly a better bet to pitch well in 2009 than anyone on the Rangers current 40-man roster.  However, each of these pitchers will come with a significant cost.  Signing either of the free agents will require the Rangers to use 20-25% of their annual payroll on a single player.  The four trade targets would likely require the Rangers to give up 3-4 quality prospects or young, inexpensive major league players.  Which begs the question – What is the value of an ace?  Or put another way, does having a legitimate #1 starter affect a team’s chances to contend for a playoff berth?

To address the question of whether an ace increases a team’s chances of reaching the playoffs, I used data from the past five seasons to determine the correlation between teams with aces and teams that made the playoffs.  Identifying the aces was a bit tricky since there’s not a clear definition for an ace.  I wound up selecting two classes of aces – those who have ranked among the top pitchers in their league for several seasons and those who ranked among the league leaders during the season being assessed.  The former group included pitchers like Halladay and Webb while the latter class included pitchers like Matsuzaka and Lincecum who have only recently ascended to acedom.

The Perennial Aces
To identify pitchers who are consistently among the league leaders, I used ERA+ to rank AL and NL starters with at least 100 innings pitched for the 2003-2008 seasons.  20 pitchers finished in their league’s Top 20 in at least three of the six seasons that I evaluated (Halladay, Sabathia, Buehrle, Clemens, Cook, Hamels, Kazmir, Lackey, Lowe, Oswalt, Santana, Schmidt, Sheets, Smoltz, Peavey, Hudson, Carpenter, Mussina, Webb, and Zambrano).  The primary problem with this list is that injuries and occasional bad seasons make these perennial aces less than stellar in some years.  In fact, only Halladay, Santana, Oswalt, Webb, and Zambrano posted an ERA+ greater than 115 in each of the 6 seasons used for this analysis.  To account for this issue, I dropped pitchers from this list for the seasons that they pitched fewer than 100 innings or posted an ERA+ that was league average or worse.

Annual Leaders
The second group of “aces” used for this analysis included the ten starters who pitched at least 100 innings with an ERA+ that was among the top ten for the league in which they pitched.  There were ten different lists of annual leaders (2 for each league for each of the five years used in the study).  The annual league lists included pitchers from the perennial aces list as well as Greinke, Lincecum, Hernandez, Lee, Volquez, Lester, Guthrie, and others.

For each of the two groups of aces, I asked a simple question: What percentage of playoff teams and what percentage of non-playoff teams during the past five years had an ace on their staff.  One would assume that great pitchers or pitchers having great seasons would improve their team’s record and thus improve their team’s chances of making the playoffs.  If true, the net result would be that the percentage of playoff teams with aces would significantly outpace the percentage of non-playoff teams with aces.  Surprisingly, the percentage of playoff teams with at least one ace of either category only slightly outpaced the percentage of non-playoff teams with an ace on-staff for each of the five years used for the study (see below).  The average percentages for the five years for playoff vs non-playoff teams were 53% vs 49% for the teams with perennial aces and 60% vs 47% for the teams with annual leaders. 

                                                                         2004     2005     2006     2007     2008
Playoff teams w/perennial aces             37.5%    75%     37.5%    75%     37.5%
Non-playoff teams w/perennial aces      45%      45%      59%      30%      45%

Playoff teams w/annual leaders              50%     62.5%   50%     62.5%    75%
Non-playoff teams w/annual leaders      45%      50%      50%      45%      45%

These data reveal that having an ace is neither necessary nor sufficient for a team to make the playoffs.  Furthermore, it appears that having an ace on staff does not substantially improve a team’s chances to make the playoffs.  Because I was surprised by this result, I reviewed the records of teams that have the best pitchers in baseball in games started by their aces and compared it to the same teams’ records in games started by everyone else.  As noted in the table below, teams are better when playing behind great pitchers, but the difference is rarely sufficient to change a team's playoff fate.  Presumably, that is why there is only a slight enrichment of aces on teams who make the playoffs.

Team/Pitcher              Record in games w/ace    Record in other games    Overall
BlueJays/Halladay               21-13                                          65-63                     86-76
Angels/Lackey                       15-9                                            85-53                   100-62
Cubs/Zambrano                   20-10                                          77-54                     97-64
Astros/Oswalt                       20-13                                           66-62                     86-75
Mets/Santana                       22-12                                           67-61                     89-73

One compelling argument that has been made in favor of adding an ace is the benefit that a team receives when they make the playoffs.  Teams typically go to 4-man staffs and thus an ace has an opportunity to impact 25% or more of the games in a 5 or 7 game series.  Using the same five pitchers as above, is there data to support this argument?  Though the number of games for each of the pitchers is relatively small, there does not appear to be a particularly strong correlation between regular season dominance and post-season success (see table below).

Pitcher        GS     ERA    Record        Team Record
Halladay       0
Lackey          9      3.39       2-3                   4-5
Zambrano    5      4.34       0-2                   1-4
Oswalt          7      3.66       4-0                   4-3
Santana       5      3.97       1-3                   2-3

Curious about the regular season and playoff impacts of the six pitchers that have been the source of various Rangers fans’ obsessions?  Below are the 2008 regular season and career playoff records of Sabathia, Sheets, Cain, Greinke, Nalasco, and Peavy.

Player      2008 record w/ace    2008 record w/others    Playoff- Starts  ERA  Rec
Sabathia               22-13                                   ??                                         5     7.92   2-3
Sheets                  18-13                                 72-59                                     0
Cain                       14-20                                58-70                                      0
Greinke                 16-16                                59-71                                      0
Nolasco                21-13                                63-64                                      0   
Peavy                    12-15                                 51-84                                      2    12.10   0-2   

What is an ace worth?  An extra 3-5 wins per season for an average to above average team; less for a below average team.  If those 3-5 wins cost you two or three young players with all-star ceilings and/or 20-25% of your payroll, I have a hard time seeing how a smart, medium payroll team can justify the expense.

I just noticed that Jamey has updated his Top 20 list and was disappointed to find that the list wasn't being discussed here.  For those of you who have not seen the latest list, you can find it here:  http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081015&content_id=3621969&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex

Noteworthy changes in the list include Holland at #1, Smoak at #3, and Kiker down to #15.  Teagarden and Hurley have been added back into the mix. 

 Jamey, I apologize if you planned to post a note later or if you preferred that your list not be posted here for a discussion thread.   

During a discussion with oc several days ago about whether it makes sense for the Rangers to trade near-ready prospects for Zach Greinke or Matt Cain, I looked up how a similar trade from last offseason has worked out for the D’backs.  You’ll recall that Arizona traded 6 prospects for Dan Haren and Connor Robertson following the 2007 season.  The D’backs appear to have gotten what they were seeking in the trade as Haren started 33 games and posted a 16-8 record with a 3.33 ERA in 216 IP.  However, Arizona finished the season out of the playoffs with an 82-80 record.  The team’s overall record in the 33 games started by Haren was 19-14 which pushed the team’s record from being slightly below 500 to slightly above.

The most major league-ready player that the A’s received was Dana Eveland, who entered 2008 having pitched in 41 major league games primarily out of the bullpen.  As a full-time starter for the A’s in 2008, Eveland pitched 168 innings in 29 games and produced a 9-9 record with a 4.34 ERA.  The A’s finished the season 75-86, but they were 16-13 in games that Eveland started.  While Haren certainly provided the D’backs with more starts and more innings, it’s not completely clear that he substantially improved the D’backs record in 2008 relative to what Eveland provided to the A’s.  And Eveland was probably no better than the 4th best player that Oakland received in the trade.

So what about the other six players involved in the trade?  At the age of 26, Connor Robertson pitched 7 major league innings in 2008 and appears unlikely to be on the D’backs 40-man roster this winter.  The A’s on the other hand received five players who appear destined to play significant roles on future Oakland teams:
Greg Smith – 24 yo rookie tossed 190 innings in 32 starts for the A’s with a 4.16 ERA.
Carlos Gonzalez – 22 yo CF/RF was apparently excellent with the glove but subpar with the bat (634 OPS) in 85 ML games.  BA ranked Gonzalez among the top 40 prospects in baseball prior to the 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons and he is expected to develop into an above average major league hitter.
Aaron Cunningham – 22 yo rookie posted a 710 OPS in 20 major league games after posting a better than 900 OPS in AA and AAA in 2008.
Brett Anderson/Chris Carter – Neither Carter nor Anderson played in the major leagues in 2008, but both will be ranked among the A’s top prospects going into 2009 and Anderson seems likely to be in the A’s rotation within a year.

The Diamondbacks recently signed Haren to a contract that will keep him with the team through the 2012 season (Arizona also has an option for 2013).  In exchange for a pitcher who will soon be earning $15.5M per year, the D’backs gave up 35 pre-free agency years of what appears to be three starting pitchers, a starting CF, a 4th OF, and a 1B/DH. 

This type of deal has to be unusual, right?  I mean, why would a GM ever trade for a young, proven, top-of-the-rotation starter if he had to give up so much in the deal?  To address the former question, I pulled data for the eight off-season trades since 2004 that have involved exchanging an accomplished, pre-free agent starting pitcher for multiple prospects and/or unproven major leaguers.  To simplify the analysis (and reduce the investment required for you to get through this FanPost), I used win shares to measure the major league production per year for each of the players following the trade.  My thoughts on the trade are provided below the player information.

2008
Erik Bedard (SP) – Win shares: 6

    for

Adam Jones (OF) - Win shares: 9
George Sherrill (RP) - Win shares: 5
Kam Mickolio (RP) – Win shares: 0 in 7.2 ML innings
Chris Tillman (SP) – No ML time; 10.2 K/9IP, 1.33 WHIP, 3.18 ERA in AA
Tony Butler (SP) - No ML time; 20 yo in SAL

Comment: An injury to Bedard combined with solid progress from Jones and 31 saves by Sherrill resulted in more win shares for the Orioles in the first year after the trade.  The gap in the return for the two teams is likely to widen as Jones continues to develop during the 5 years that he is controlled by the Orioles and the most talented player involved in the trade, Chris Tillman, takes his place in the Orioles rotation.

Johan Santana (SP) - Win shares:  21

    for

Carlos Gomez (OF) - Win shares: 13
Philip Humber (SP) - Win shares: 0 in 5 relief appearances
Kevin Mulvey (SP) – No ML time; 7.4 K/9IP, 1.35 WHIP, 3.77 ERA in 27 AAA starts.
Deolis Guerra (SP) – No ML time; Poor 19 yo season after being ranked #35 by BA in February ’08.

Comment: This trade currently favors the team receiving the young veteran pitcher.  Santana produced like an ace in 2008, though the final result was not what the Mets had expected since they failed to qualify for the playoffs.  The Mets signed Santana to a 6 year extension, though they are paying $22.5M per season for the privilege of having him in their rotation.  The Twins have 6 years of a relatively inexpensive centerfielder who produced 13 win shares in his rookie season.  They also have 11+ years of control over two near-ready starting pitchers plus a lottery ticket for a talented 19 yo pitcher. 

2007
Dan Haren (SP) - Win shares: 20
Connor Roberston (RP) - Win shares: 0 in 6 games

   for

Dana Eveland (SP) - Win shares: 9
Greg Smith (SP) - Win shares: 10
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) - Win shares: 6 in 85 games
Aaron Cunningham (OF) - Win shares: 3 in 22 games
Brett Anderson (SP) – No ML time; 11K/9IP, 1.16 WHIP, 2.61 ERA in AA
Chris Carter (1B) – No ML time; 259/361/569/930 with 39 HR in A+

Comment: As noted above, this trade slightly favors the prospects after one year and should get much worse for the D’backs as some of the prospects grow into roles on the next few A’s teams.

2006
Brandon McCarthy (SP) - Win shares: 4, 1
David Paisano (OF) – No ML time; unlikely to see ML time.

   for

John Danks (SP) - Win shares  - 4, 17
Nick Massett (RP) - Win shares  - 0, 4
Jake Rasner (SP) – No ML time; unlikely to see ML time.

Comment: At the time of this trade, McCarthy had 1.5 years of major league experience and was deemed by many to be a breakout candidate as a starting pitcher in 2007.  The prospect in the trade, Danks, has become a stalwart in the ChiSox rotation in just his second season.

Jason Jennings (SP) - Win shares: -1, N/A left as a free agent.
Miguel Asencio (RP) – No ML time; pitched 2008 in Boston’s minor league system.

  for

Willy Taveras (OF) - Win shares: 12, 7
Taylor Buchholz (RP) - Win shares: 5, 9
Jason Hirsh (RP) - Win shares: 4, 0 

Comment: Jennings and Asencio did nothing for the Astros in the one year that they played for the team.  Taveras has settled in as the Rockies starting center fielder and Buchholz is playing a significant role in the Rockies bullpen.

2005
Josh Beckett (SP) - Win shares: 12, 19, 11
Mike Lowell (3B) - Win shares: 18, 24, 13
Guillermo Mota (RP) - Win shares: N/A; traded prior to 2006 season

   for

Hanley Ramirez (SS) - Win shares: 25, 29, 32
Anibal Sanchez (SP) - Win shares: 11, 1, 0
Jesus Delgado (SP) – Win shares: 0 in 2 games in 2008
Harvey Garcia (SP) – Win shares: 0 in limited ML time in 2007

Comment: This trade is difficult to grade since it featured two players (Lowell and Mota) whose salaries far exceeded their 2005 production and whom Florida was simply lookiing to dump.  Taken in its entirety, the trade is essentially a wash at the end of three years (97 win shares for Boston; 98 win shares for Florida). If you eliminate the salary dump portion of the trade, then you wind up with Beckett for Ramirez/Sanchez and a clear win for the prospect side.  In addition, Boston has paid Beckett and Lowell ~$50M in the three years since the trade while the Marlins have paid Ramirez et al less than $5M.

2004
Mark Mulder (SP) - Win shares: 12, 0, -2, 0

   for

Dan Haren (SP) - Win shares: 15, 15, 19, N/A traded to D’backs
Daric Barton (1B) - Win shares  - N/A, N/A, 3, 9
Kiko Calero (RP) - Win shares  -  5, 7, 1, 0 in 5 games before being released

Comment: This trade is a win for Oakland until you account for the fact that Haren begot Eveland/Smith/Anderson/Gomez/Carter/Cunningham whereupon it becomes an extraordinary haul that Beane received in exchange for one pre-free agency year of Mark Mulder.

Tim Hudson (SP) - Win shares: 13, 7, 19, 11

   for

Dan Meyer (SP) - Win shares: N/A, N/A, -1, -1
Juan Cruz (RP) - Win shares:  N/A, N/A, N/A, -1
Charles Thomas (OF) - Win shares: 0

Comment:  The reason that I went back four years and eight trades for this FanPost is because that is the last time that a young starter for prospects trade clearly favored the team receiving the pre-free agency, proven pitcher.  Hudson has been a solid, though oft-injured, member of the Braves starting rotation while Oakland’s key return, Dan Meyer, was injured and is just now receiving an opportunity to pitch in the major leagues. 

Overall comment:  Injuries to the young, proven starters have significantly impacted four of the eight trades presented above which points out the problem with trading multiple players for a single pitcher.  In three of the four trades where the young veteran pitcher has remained reasonably healthy, the prospects have been as productive as the veteran and they’ve done so at a much lower cost to the team.  Given the historical data, does it really make sense for the Rangers to swap Saltalamacchia/Hurley/Andrus for Greinke or Davis/Holland/Harrison for Cain or Kinsler/Feliz/Teagarden for Peavy? 

Special thanks to oc for inspiring the research that led to today’s FanPost.

I think it was the esteemed Mr. Coffin who originally hung the “4H Club” moniker on Hurley, Harrison, Hunter, and Holland. Ed, if you’re out there, I hope you don’t mind me using/stealing the phrase. 

Since 1990, 77 American League pitchers have started at least three games as 22 year-olds in their debut seasons.  Interesting names on that list include Appier, Abbott (Jim), Danks, Lester, Mulder, McDonald, Radke, Carpenter, Buchholtz, Volquez, Santana (Ervin), Carmona, Westbrook, Litsch, Verlander, Escobar, Mussina, Hentgen, Harden, Gordon, and Erickson.  Joining that list in 2008 were three Rangers (Harrison, Hurley, and Hunter).  A fourth is likely to join them as Derek Holland is expected to get his first shot at the major leagues in 2009.

To develop a sense of what we might be able to expect from the Rangers’ 4H club over the next few years, I reviewed the performances of the other American League pitchers who had debuted at the age of 22. 

Year-by-year stats
22 yo season – 77 pitchers averaged 12 games and an ERA+ of 96.4.
23 yo season – 67 pitchers averaged 18 games and an ERA+ of 94.0.
24 yo season – 52 pitchers averaged 20 games and an ERA+ of 96.1.
25 yo season – 40 pitchers averaged 19 games and an ERA+ of 100.8.
26 yo season – 29 pitchers averaged 21 games and an ERA+ of 101.2.

The falling number of pitchers in successive years is a combination of players being transitioned to the bullpen, moving to the National League, and failing to remain in the majors.  In addition, 18 of the players from this dataset have yet to reach their 26th birthdays, meaning that they contributed to the earlier age categories but not the latter.  Overall, 65% of the pitchers that debuted as starters at the age of 22 years old had at least decent major league careers.  As a group, the pitchers started as slightly below average and became average to slightly above average over a three to four year period.  When you begin to look at the individual pitchers within the collective, it becomes apparent that the pitchers can be readily categorized based on their annual performance trajectories.

Classes of Pitchers
The 77 pitchers in this group can be broken into three primary groups based on whether they were above average (ERA+ > 100), slightly below average (ERA+ = 75-100), or significantly below average (ERA+ <75) in their first years.  Each of the three primary categories can then be bisected into pitchers who maintained their first year performance and those whose performance changed as they matured.  Provided below are the numbers of pitchers who fit into these six categories and how the pitchers in each group performed on average during the seasons when they were 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26.

Class I - Started hot and maintained
22 pitchers (29% of the total) had an ERA+ over 100 as rookies and then maintained that level of performance through all or most of their careers.  On average during the first five years of their careers, the pitchers produced an ERA+ of 138 (22 yo), 110 (23yo), 118 (24yo), 130 (25yo), and 127 (26yo).  As a group, the pitchers averaged ~25 starts per year after the ~15 that they started in their debut seasons.  Notable examples from this group include Appier, Erickson, Gordon, Harden, Hentgen, Mussina, McDonald, and Zito.

Class II – Started hot and faded
Only 5 pitchers (6% of the total) started with an ERA+ greater than 100 and then posted an average ERA+ below 100 during the rest of their careers.  Sam Militello, Doug Waechter, Jason Bere, Jimmy Haynes, and Joe Kennedy are the members of this club.
 
Class III – Started below average and climbed
14 pitchers (18% of the total) produced an ERA+ that fell in the range of 75 to 100 in their rookie seasons and then managed to become average to above average starting pitchers within 3 years.  On average during the first five years of their careers, the pitchers posted an ERA+ of 88 (22yo), 116 (23yo), 106 (24yo), 110 (25yo), and 103 (26yo).  Notable members of this group include Ervin Santana, Chris Carpenter, Eric Milton, Brad Radke, Jon Lester, John Danks, and Mark Mulder.

Class IV – Started below average and failed to stick as starters
14 pitchers (~18% of the total) produced an ERA+ that fell in the range of 75 to 100 and failed to remain starters after various numbers of auditions. Eight of the pitchers have become relievers and the other six are either in the minor leagues or out of professional baseball. Members of this group include current and past Rangers Kam Loe, Jason Standridge, John Wasdin, and Matt Perisho.

Class V – Started bad and became good
Only 5 pitchers (6% of the total) comprise this class (Verlander, Volquez, Guardado, LaTroy Hawkins, and JP Howell).  Each of these pitchers has experienced success in the major leagues after having rookie campaigns that ended with an ERA+ below 75.  Two pitchers who debuted this year (Tommy Hunter and Gio Gonzalez) have a chance to join them.

Class VI – Started bad and never recovered
11 pitchers (14%) started with an ERA+ below 75 and simply failed to remain in the big leagues beyond a few years. 

You’ll note that the list above captures only 71 of the 77 pitchers who began their American League careers as 22 yo starters.  The other 6, including three Rangers, have just completed their first or second season and have yet to reveal their class affiliation.  More than half of the pitchers (38 out of 71) in this analysis have proven to be average to significantly above average major league starters.  Approximately ten others have become successful relievers.  Worth noting is that slightly more than half of the average to above average starting pitchers from this group were productive as soon as they were called up while the others required as much as three seasons to hit their strides. 

So where will the four Rangers that are currently or soon to be members of the 22yo club likely fit in the classification system above?  Only time will tell, but I’ll speculate below.

Hurley
In 5 starts spanning 24.2 innings, Hurley posted an ERA+ of 80.  Of course, prior to his final start when he gave up 6 ER in 2 innings, Hurley’s ERA+ was north of 100.  Depending on whether you believe that an uninjured Hurley would have finished the season with an ERA+ greater than 100 or between 75 and 100, the historical data would suggest that he would have an 80% or 50% chance of becoming an average to above average major league starter. 

Harrison
Harrison had 14 starts spanning 77.2 innings and posted an ERA+ of 79. He fits comfortably into the group of pitchers who comprise Class III and Class IV.  As such, it would seem that his odds of becoming an average to above average starter in the American League is about 50:50 with a better than 75% chance of at least sticking in the bullpen.

Hunter
In three starts, Hunter pitched 11 innings and was blitzed (ERA+ = 27).  Most pitchers with that type of introduction to the big leagues fail to stick as starters.  As noted above, the two exceptions are exceptional (Verlander and Volquez).  Like Hunter, Verlander and Volquez started only three games as rookies.  Hopefully, that’s an omen.  In regard to Hunter, it is clear that he was rushed to the major leagues due to injuries to the major league staff.  Furthermore, the number of innings that he pitched is far too small to provide reliable numbers. 

Holland
The best pitchers in this cohort started well and simply kept it up.  Appier, Gordon, Harden, Hentgen, Litsch, Lester, Mussina, McDonald, and Zito all had ERAs of 3.5-4.5 in their first seasons and by and large, maintained or improved their numbers as they went.  If Holland is the stud pitcher that he appears to be, then history would suggest that he will be a very productive pitcher beginning with his rookie season.

Bonus Coverage
Brandon McCarthy debuted for the White Sox in 2005 as a 22 yo starting pitcher.  He started 10 games and posted an ERA+ of 111.  Only Harden, Ben McDonald, Zito, Appier, Mussina, Erickson, Jason Bere, Escobar, and Litsch have started at least ten games at the age of 22 and posted a higher ERA+.  Since his rookie season, McCarthy has posted ERA+ of 101, 93, and 106.  Based on his peer group, McCarthy should be putting up numbers consistent with a top-of-the-rotation starter. 

When asked about the top minor league systems in baseball, Jim Callis said,

...the Rangers and Athletics have put together the game's two deepest farm systems.

I'd rank Texas ahead of Oakland because I like their depth and their balance of hitters and pitchers a little more. The Rangers have done an impressive job on all fronts recently, picking up talent via trades (Andrus might be the best shortstop prospect in the minors, while Feliz might have the best pure fastball), the draft (getting Smoak and Ross with the 11th and 57th overall picks this year was a huge coup) and the international market (Perez drew some Johan Santana comps in the short-season Northwest League this summer).

Callis’ assertion is borne out by BA’s published Top 20 lists for the rookie, A, and AA leagues:
(1) The Rangers are tied for 1st with 14 prospects among the various league Top20s.
(2) The Rangers are 1st with 11 prospects among the various league Top10s.   
(3) The Rangers are 1st with 5 prospects among the various league Top5s.In

                             Top20                  Top10                Top5
Avg/team           7.67                     3.97                    2.15

Top 3 teams     Rangers (14)    Rangers (11)    Rangers (5)
                            A's (14)               Giants (8)          Marlins (4)
                            Braves (14)        A's (7)                A's (4)

And if you are curious how the Rangers stack up against the other teams in the AL West:
Team             Top20     Top10     Top5
 A's                  14            7              4
 Angels           8              1              1
 Mariners        12           5              3
 Rangers        14           11            5

For the calculations above, I used a player’s higher ranking and only counted him once if he was present on more than one Top20 list.

Rangers Ranked Among BA's League Top20s
Rank   Player                    League
2          Chris Davis           TEX
2          Martin Perez          NWL
2          Neftali Feliz           MWL
4          Neil Ramirez         NWL
5          Elvis Andrus          TEX
6          Engel Beltre           MWL
6         Wilfredo Boscan    NWL
8         Julio Borbon           TEX
8         Tim Murphy             NWL
9         Derek Holland        MWL
9         Max Ramirez           TEX
11       Joe Wieland           AZL
11       Julio Borbon           CAL
16       Matt West                NWL
18       Clark Murphy          AZL

Predicting the Rangers contribution to BA’s 2009 Top100 List
Although fall and winter league performances will likely impact BA’s 2009 prospect list, the published Top20’s suggest that the Rangers in 2009 will likely have more than the 5 representatives that they had on BA's 2008 Top100 list.  By my count, 36 players from BA’s 2008 list have graduated to the majors and another 15 have performed too poorly to be considered among the Top100 prospects for 2009. That leaves more than half of the Top100 list available for new prospects.  How many Rangers are likely to make the list, you ask?  Well, please allow me to speculate.

Rangers Top100 Incumbents (2008 Rank)
Andrus (#19) – 520 Abs, 295 AVG, 350 OBP, 367 SLG, 717 OPS, 54 St/16CS
Andrus’ strong second half (313/364/400/764) ensures that he will remain high on BA’s prospect list.

Davis (#65) – AA/AAA – 323 ABs, 333 AVG, 386 OBP, 643 SLG, 1029 OPS, 23 HR
                        ML – 312 ABs, 288 AVG, 334 OBP, 555 SLG, 884 OPS, 17 HR
Had he not graduated, Davis would have likely been ranked among BA’s Top20 and rated as one of the best power hitters in the minor leagues. 

Hurley (#77) – AA/AAA – 74.2 IP, 4.83 ERA, 8.2K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.47 WHIP
                         ML – 24.2 IP, 5.47 ERA, 4.0K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.42 WHIP
Disappointing numbers in AAA combined with an injury-shortened run in the majors will likely drop Hurley from the BA Top100 for the first time since 2006.

Teagarden (#80) – AAA – 225 ABs, 225 AVG, 332 OBP, 396 SLG, 728 OPS
                                 ML – 52 ABs, 319 AVG, 396 OBP, 809 SLG, 1205 OPS
A disappointing batting average in AAA has been somewhat mitigated by an outstanding major league debut.  Teagarden’s reputation as one of the better catching prospects in baseball might be enough to get him on the 2009 list. 

Feliz (#93) – A/AA – 127.1 IP, 2.69 ERA, 10.8K/9IP, 3.6BB/9IP, 1.10 WHIP
BA’s somewhat surprising selection of Feliz for their 2008 list was rewarded with a breakout year in 2008.  Feliz should experience one of the bigger jumps among the 2008 incumbents.

Guaranteed New Rangers
Holland – A/A+/AA – 150 IP, 2.35 ERA, 9.3 K/9IP, 2.4 BB/9IP, 1.01 WHIP
Although Holland was only rated #9 among the MWL’s top prospects, he is now included in many lists of the Top 10 minor league pitching prospects after proving himself in A+ and AA. 

MaxRam – AA/AAA – 327 ABs, 347 AVG, 439 OBP, 628 SLG, 1067 OPS
                       ML – 51 ABs, 222 AVG, 352 OBP, 378 SLG, 730 OPS
Ramirez was a fixture on BA’s weekly prospect lists during the first half of the season.  Although injuries and a ML promotion limited his ABs in the second half of the season, Ramirez should be recognized as one of the best hitting catchers in the minor leagues.

Smoak – A – 61 AB’s, 304 AVG, 355 OBP, 518 SLG, 873 OPS
From a Jim Callis Chat – “One scout who got a glimpse of Smoak when he joined Clinton at the end of the season told me he thought Smoak was the best prospect in the league. I probably would have ranked him No. 2.” 
Moustakas was ranked #1 in the MWL, Feliz #2, and Jarrod Parker #3. It sounds to me as if Callis has Smoak among his top 20 minor league prospects.

Potential New Rangers
Beltre – A – 581 ABs, 283 AVG, 308 OBP, 403 SLG, 711 OPS 31 St/11CS
BA’s Top100 prospect list for 2008 included eight players whom BA ranked among the Top20 in the Midwest League following the 2007 season.  Assuming they take a similar number of players this year, then it is likely that Beltre will make the final cut since he ranked #6 in the MWL this year.

Borbon – A+/AA – 575 ABs, 321 AVG, 362 OBP, 425 SLG, 787 OPS, 53 St/16 CS
Based on his 337/380/459/838 romp at Frisco, Borbon was ranked #8 on BA’s Texas League Top20 which was one slot ahead of Max Ramirez.  BA included 12 Texas Leaguers among their 2008 Top100 prospects, so don’t be surprised to see Borbon get the nod for 2009.

Perez – Short season A – 61.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 7.7K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.52 WHIP
The only NWL player to make BA’s 2008 list was Neftali Feliz.  Perez finished second to Josh Vitters on BA’s Top20 for the NWL this year and Vitters is a lock for the 2009 Top100 list.  In a chat session, Nathan Rode indicated that a BA staff discussion comparing the prospect status of Perez and Feliz ended in a stalemate.  Look for BA to include Perez among the latter few picks in anticipation of a breakout next year.

Main – Rk/A – 58.2 IP, 2.76, 10K/9IP, 2.8BB/9IP, 1.11 WHIP
Injuries limited Main’s innings and the probability that BA will add him to their list of the Top100 prospects in baseball.  In my opinion, odds are 2:1 against Main being included on the 2009 list.


Final Prediction – 8 Rangers
Feliz (Top25)
Smoak (Top25)
Holland (Top50)
Andrus (Top50)
MaxRam (Top75)
Beltre (Top100)
Borbon (Top100)
Perez (Top100)

PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) was developed by Nate Silver as a way to predict the future performance of a given player.  In a nutshell, the method begins by identifying players with similar age-specific stats to the player in question and then projecting future performance for the player based upon the historical numbers posted by the similar players.  Although the method ignores things like fastball velocity, bat speed, height, weight, clubhouse presence, clutchness, and birthplace, it has proven to be relatively accurate in projecting the 1-3 year performances of individual players.  I am among those who look forward to the end of each season so that I can see the updated PECOTAs (and other lists of player comps) for the Rangers. 

In case you haven’t noticed, I lean toward the obsessive side when it comes to tracking the stats of minor league ballplayers.  I admit to being more concerned with whether a run will be considered earned due to the effect that it will have on a prospect’s ERA than I am with the effect that the run will have on the outcome of a game.  Clearly, this is not healthy.  In an attempt to turn my obsession into something reasonably productive, I have developed a bit of a parlor game that involves looking up the career stats of pitchers who would look great in Rangers blue (or red) and then identifying the Rangers prospect whose early stats are most similar.  My method has the same predicted accuracy as putting your finger in the air to forecast next week’s weather, but hopefully you’ll enjoy donning my rose-colored glasses and checking out my dream rotation for the 2011 Rangers.

#1 Neftali Feliz (Comps – Sabathia and Billingsley)
                      Age   Level         IP      ERA     K/9IP    BB/9IP    WHIP
Feliz               18       Rk          29      4.03     13.0        4.3         1.17
                       19        A-           42      2.54     11.7        5.2         1.30
                       20      A/AA       127     2.72     10.8        3.6         1.10

Sabathia      18       Rk          18      4.50     17.5        4.0         1.56
                       19     A-/A/A+     36      3.35      9.8         4.3         1.23
                       20     A+/AA      146     3.56      9.6         4.5         1.33

Billingsley     18       Rk          54      2.83     10.3        2.5         1.19
                        19       A+          92      2.35     10.9        4.8         1.27
                        20       AA         146     3.51     10.0        3.1         1.14
Strike-out pitchers with low BAA and average to slightly below average walk rates who advance quickly through the minor leagues.  They are typically projected as top-of-the-rotation starters or closers depending on their secondary pitches.  Feliz’ ERA has been slightly better than the other two pitchers due to a much lower HR rate. 

#2 Derek Holland (Comps – Lester and Peavy)
                      Age     Level      IP        ERA     K/9IP     BB/9IP     WHIP
Holland          20         A-       67        3.22     11.2         2.8          1.16
                        21    A/A+/AA 150       2.35       9.3         2.4          1.01

Lester            20          A+      90        4.28       9.7         3.7          1.32    
                        21         AA     148        2.61      9.9         3.5           1.15

Peavy            19           A      133        2.90     11.0        3.6          1.20  
                       20       A+/AA   133        3.00     12.7        3.0          1.06
Pitchers who are good to excellent in every pitcher-specific statistical category.  Both Lester and Peavy started their minor league careers earlier than Holland: Lester pitched Rookie League as a 19 yo and Peavy pitched Rookie League as an 18 yo.  As noted above, Holland caught both pitchers quickly.
 
#3 – Tommy Hunter (Comp – Lackey)
                       Age      Level     IP         ERA    K/9IP     BB/9IP    WHIP
Hunter            20          A-       17         2.55      6.6          0.5         0.91
                        21      A+/AAA 163        3.40      5.5          1.7         1.25

Lackey          20           A-       81         4.98      8.5          5.5         1.61
                        21     A/A+/AA  188       3.25      6.5          2.8         1.25
                        22      AA/AAA  185       4.55      6.6          2.2         1.18
With underwhelming K-rates, outstanding control, and surprisingly good WHIPs and ERAs, Lackey and Hunter experienced meteoric rises through the minors.  In my opinion, Hunter’s recent adoption of the 2-seamer is a great move since he has the control and curve-ball needed to become an outstanding sinker ball pitcher.

#4 – Kasey Kiker (Comp – Danks)
                      Age      Level      IP         ERA     K/9IP    BB/9IP      WHIP
Kiker             18          A-        53         4.39       8.8         6.2           1.59
                       19           A         96         2.90     10.5         3.8          1.30
                       20          A+      121         4.73      8.2          2.7          1.44

Danks           18        Rk/A-     25          4.70     12.1        3.9          1.10
                       19         A/A+     114        3.60       9.9         3.3          1.35
                       20       A+/AA     156        4.40       8.0         2.8          1.24 
Good K-rates along with walk-rates that started out as sub-par and then moved into plus territory as their control became a strength.  Both pitchers were among the youngest players in their leagues at each stop and neither pitcher produced the dominant stats that their scouting reports suggested they should.  Predictably, both pitchers looked like world-beaters in the Midwest League and then suffered in the Cal League.  Hopefully, someone in the Rangers organization can teach Kiker to throw a cutter.
 
#5 – Eric Hurley (Comp – Haren)
                      Age      Level       IP         ERA     K/9IP     BB/9IP     WHIP
Hurley           19          A         155        3.77       8.8          3.4         1.25
                       20       A+/AA     137        3.40       8.9          2.8         1.12
                       21      AA/AAA    161        4.02       7.5          3.0         1.19
                       22         AAA        74         5.30       8.7          3.5         1.54

Haren            20           A-         52         3.10       9.6           1.4         1.05
                       21          A/A+     193        2.75       8.0           1.5         1.09
                       22       AA/AAA   100         2.80      7.5            1.3         0.98
Good K-rates and WHIPs.  With the exception of Hurley in 2008, both pitchers enjoyed low BAA.  Both pitchers are flyball prone and give up more homeruns than you would like (0.89 for Haren; 1.16 for Hurley).  Haren has better control, Hurley has a slightly higher K-rate.  Both pitchers made their major league debuts at the age of 22; Haren started 14 games with an ERA of 5.08 while Hurley started 5 and produced an ERA of 5.47.  Note – Hurley’s Rookie League stats as an 18 yo are not shown. 

#6 – Matt Harrison (Comp – Halladay)
                        Age     Level       IP          ERA     K/9IP      BB/9IP     WHIP
Harrison         18         A-          66          4.09      6.7           2.1          1.26
                         19         A          167         3.23      6.4           1.6          1.08
                         20      A+/AA     158         3.40      6.4           1.8          1.22
                         21        AA         116        3.39       6.0           2.6          1.30
                         22     AA/AAA      84        3.43       5.9           3.0           1.40

Halladay         18         Rk          50        3.40       8.6           2.9           1.01
                         19         A+         164       2.73       6.0           2.5           1.24
                         20     AA/AAA     163       4.70       5.1           3.5           1.47
                         21        AAA        116       3.79       5.5           4.1           1.38
Both guys are “pitchers.”  They don’t miss many bats but they keep the other team from scoring by minimizing walks and inducing double plays.  Halladay took a few years to realize his potential at the major league level.  Hopefully, Harrison will follow suit.   

#7 – Omar Poveda (Comp – Kazmir)
                         Age      Level      IP         ERA     K/9IP       BB/9IP       WHIP
Poveda             18          A        149        4.82       8.0            2.2            1.36
                           19        A/A+    153        3.10       8.9            2.5            1.10
                           20          A+       90        4.47        9.6            4.0            1.35

Kazmir              18          A-        18         0.50        17             3.5            0.67
                           19        A/A+    109        2.80      11.9            3.6           1.15
                           20       A+/AA    76         2.80        9.5            3.6           1.25
Both pitchers were pushed and were able to strike out a lot of hitters and maintain low WHIPs despite facing much older competition.  Kazmir’s ERA was superior at each stop but the peripherals were very similar.  Note – Poveda’s Rookie League numbers as a 17 yo are not included.

As a reminder, the goal for this exercise was to identify pitchers under the age of 28 with at least three years of club control whom the Rangers could potentially obtain in trades this off-season without having to give up a key major leaguer or one of their top prospects. 

Good Stuff/Poor Performance (Examples –Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez, Edwin Jackson)
Young pitchers invariably struggle when they are promoted to the major leagues.  The most talented and well developed pitchers usually produce league average or better results within a season or two.  Some pitchers take longer.  Identifying those pitchers that will eventually figure it out while their value is low due to poor performance can produce significant returns for the team that is able to trade for them.  To identify candidates for this category, I reviewed BA’s Top100 prospects from the past 7 seasons and selected those pitchers who appeared on at least two prospect lists.  My reasoning was that being recognized at least twice as a Top100 prospect suggests that the pitcher has stuff that is generally acknowledged as above average.  The pitchers selected by this method were a “who’s who” of the top pitchers in MLB (Beckett, Peavy, Sabathia, Kazmir, Danks, Cain, Greinke, King Felix, McGowan, Zambrano, Sheets).  However, there are a number of pitchers who have thus far failed to distinguish themselves as good major league starters.

Franklin Morales (Rockies) – 22 yo LHP – Morales has three potentially plus pitches (mid-90s fastball, curve, and change-up) that he struggles to control.  He was ranked by BA as the #30 (2007) and #13 (2008) prospect in baseball the past two years.  After a strong finish in the major leagues last year (3.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in a handful of starts), Morales has struggled mightily this year in the majors (6.39 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) and AAA (110 IP, 83K, 82BB, 1.51 WHIP).  It seems unlikely that the Rockies would seek a trade for a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation stuff, but perhaps a package of prospects offered at the right time would find a receptive audience if the Rockies are concerned that Morales will never be able to adequately control his stuff.
Majors – 64 IP, 4.59 ERA, 35K, 31BB, 1.44 WHIP
Minors – 538 IP, 4.38 ERA, 9.1K/9IP, 5.3BB/9IP, 1.51 WHIP

Merkin Valdez (Giants) – 26 yo RHP – An electric fastball (mind-90’s w/movement) coupled with a change-up and slider led BA to rank him #40 (2004) and #58 (2005).  Unlike others in this category, Valdez has performed well when he’s been on the mound.  His problem is that he’s struggled with injuries the past few years.  Valdez is out of options and has missed most of 2008 due to an elbow injury, making his standing on the pitching-rich Giants roster tenuous.
Majors – 17.2 IP, 18H, 10BB, 15K, 8ER
Minors -  397 IP, 3.36 ERA, 9K/9IP, 3.6BB/9IP, 1.26 WHIP

Homer Bailey (Reds) – 22 yo RHP – With a plus fastball and a plus curve, Bailey has appeared four times on BA’s Top100 (#48 in 2005, #38 in 2006, #5 in 2007, and #9 in 2008).  Two failed attempts to stick in the ML rotation appear to have affected his minor league performance in 2008 (4.77 ERA in AAA).  With a rotation anchored by Harang, Volquez, Cueto, and Arroyo, it is not clear that Bailey has a place in the Reds’ future.  The team is likely to struggle getting their roster down to 40 players this fall given that they currently have 46 listed on the major league team.  A well-timed phone call by the Rangers to the Reds might produce a young fire-baller that has apparently reminded some of a young Nolan Ryan.
Majors – 81.2 IP, 4.59 ERA, 46K, 45BB, 1.80 WHIP
Minors – 441 IP, 3.79 ERA, 9.3K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.32 WHIP

Yusmiero Petit (D’backs) – 23 yo RHP has been ranked by BA as the #46 (2005) and #69 (2006) prospect in baseball.  Petit apparently has excellent command of a 87-91 MPH sinker, slurve, and change-up. Traded twice in the past three years, Petit has thrown 138 innings in parts of three major league seasons and produced a 5.33 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, ~7K/9IP, and <3BB/9IP.  Although his ERA+ has improved in each of his three seasons (45 to 103 to 111), he has worked primarily as a long man/spot starter in the major leagues which is a far cry from the mid-rotation horse that he was originally projected to become.  In 2008, Petit has pitched 55 innings in 17 games, starting 8, striking out 41, walking 13, and posting a 4.04 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.  Petit’s 2008 numbers are beginning to approach those that he accumulated primarily as a starter in 596 minor league innings (3.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.8K/9IP, 2.1BB/9IP).  Young and improving, Petit appears to be on the verge of moving into a major league rotation where he could prove valuable to a team that will control him for 4 years.

Nick Adenhart (Angels) - 22 yo RHP – Armed with a three-pitch repertoire (excellent curve and change-up plus a low 90’s fastball with good movement) and good-for-his-age stats, Adenhart was ranked #90 in 2006, #34 in 2007, and #27 in 2008 on BA's year-end prospect lists.  Although Adenhart was outstanding in 2006 when he pitched in the Midwest and Cal Leagues (2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8K/9IP, <3BB/9IP), his performance has fallen the last two years (3.65 ERA/1.46 WHIP in 2007 and 5.76 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 2008).  It is unlikely that the Angels would be ready to trade a player who as recently as last year was considered by many to be their top prospect, but it might be worth a phone call. 
Majors – 3 starts, 12 IP, 18H, 13BB, 4K, 12ER
Minors – 506 IP, 3.89 ERA, 7.7K/9IP, 3.7BB/9IP, 1.41 WHIP

Casualties of Congested Rosters (Example – Johan Santana, Armando Galarraga, Dustin Nippert)
Occasionally, poor internal scouting and/or a glut of talent leads a team to lose good pitchers to waivers or the Rule 5 draft.  This proved to be the most difficult category for me to assess given that it is unclear who is likely to be waived to make room for incoming prospects and free agents during the upcoming off-season.  After assessing the 40-man rosters and upper minors for all thirty teams, I selected the three that appear to have more major league-ready pitchers than they have room on their rosters.  For each of the three teams, I selected a couple of pitchers that might be traded in the off-season to make room on their team’s 40- and/or 25-man rosters.

Oakland A’s
The A’s added a lot of prospects to their system via trades this year.  Their 40–man roster currently stands at 43.  With 8 left-handed pitchers on their 40-man, lefties who have failed to distinguish themselves are at-risk of being waived to make room for a new group of A’s prospects (Mazzaro, Guzman, Lansford). 

Dan Meyer (OAK) – 27 yo LHP - Meyer’s fastball sits in the low 90’s and he apparently has one of the better sliders in the A’s system along with a decent change-up.  Prior to being traded to the A’s for Tim Hudson, Meyer was considered Atlanta’s top pitching prospect.  Meyer’s major league numbers have been uninspiring but his minor league numbers have been excellent.  The lefty is out of options and potentially out of chances to stick with the A’s.
Majors – 43 IP, 31K, 23BB, 7.95 ERA, 1.77 WHIP
Minors – 733 IP, 3.60 ERA, 8.5K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.29 WHIP

Dallas Braden (OAK) – 25 yo LHP – Braden is a four pitch lefty (high 80s fastball, slider, change-up, screwball) who has posted a better than 4:1 K:walk rate during his minor league career.  That success has not yet been replicated at the major league level where he has accumulated just under a year of service-time.  With five years of club control and one more option (I think), Braden could be an intriguing off-season trade target.
Majors – 99 IP, 6.09 ERA, 6.8K/9IP, 3.6BB/9IP, 1.59 WHIP
Minors – 346 IP, 3.30 ERA, 10.1K/9IP, 2.4BB/9IP, 1.16 WHIP

Florida Marlins

Florida’s 40-man roster currently stands at 47 players, with very few players eligible for free agency after this season.  In 2008, the Marlins have used 9 starting pitchers who fall in the 21-25 year age range.  Volstad, Nolasco, and Johnson all have ERAs below 3.55 and Olsen sports a 4.31 ERA.  Miller and Tucker are considered to be exceptional prospects, providing the Marlins with an exciting core of 6 young pitchers for their rotation.  One way for the Marlins to clear space on their roster is to swap a pitcher or two for prospects who are not yet Rule 5 eligible.  My favorites among the Marlin’s young starters not listed above are:

Anibal Sanchez (FLA) – 24 yo RHP – Sanchez throws a low-90s fastball, above average change and curve, and an occasional slider.  He was ranked the #40 prospect in baseball by BA in 2006.  Ordinarily, a player of Sanchez’ caliber would seem off-limits but three issues suggest that might not be the case. (1) It appears the Marlins used Sanchez’ final option this year, meaning he will have to pass through waivers prior to being designated to a minor league team if he fails to stick on the Marlins’ active roster.  (2) Sanchez has pitched in only 9 games this year following an injury-shortened 2007, and he has not been particularly good (46 IP, 5.87 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 42K).  (3) The players union filed a grievance against the Marlins based on Sanchez’ contention that his arm injury in 2007 was mis-handled by the team.  If the Marlins decide that their team will be better by subtracting Sanchez, I hope that the Rangers are at the front of the line with trade ideas.
Majors – 144 IP, 3.24 ERA, 5.4K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.37 WHIP
Minors – 326 IP, 2.71 ERA, 10.4K/9IP, 2.9BB/9IP, 1.10 WHIP

Rick Vanden Hurk (FLA) – 23 yo RHP – Vanden Hurk was apparently rushed to the majors in 2007 and was predictably punished by major league hitters as a 21 yo rookie (6.83 ERA).  Vanden Hurk has struggled again this year in limited action in the majors (7.71 ERA).  Because he is down to his last option, he faces an uphill battle cracking the Marlins starting rotation.  The right-hander features a big curveball and low 90’s fastball that he can get up to 96 MPH.  His minor league numbers are outstanding.  Given his age and stuff, it seems likely that Vanden Hurk stands a good chance of breaking out in another year or two, whereupon he could provide a team a very nice 3-4 year return on their investment.
Majors – 95 IP, 6.96 ERA, 9.6K/9IP, 5.5BB/9IP, 1.80 WHIP
Minors – 289 IP, 3.61 ERA, 9.3K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.30 WHIP

Tampa Rays
The Rays have 42 players on their 40-man roster and several prospects who need to be added in the fall or they will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  With David Price apparently ready to join Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Sonnastine or Jackson in the Rays rotation and Davis, McGee, and Hellickson expected to be ready soon, there appears to be little room for a couple of young pitchers with impressive resumes.

JP Howell (Rays) – 25 yo LHP - After struggling as a starter for parts of three years in the majors (ERA above 6.00), the Rays put Howell in the bullpen in 2008 and he has flourished (2.54 ERA).  While his recent success has likely moved him out of the bargain bin, it is possible that the Rays might consider a trade to clear room on their 40- and 25-man rosters for one of their stud pitching prospects or for a veteran who can add experience to their young team.  
Majors – 226 IP, 5.33 ERA, 7.8K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.49 WHIP
Minors – 346 IP, 3.20 ERA, 9.5K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.23 WHIP

James Houser (Rays) – 23 yo LHP – Houser has a low 90s fastball, above average curve, and a developing change-up.  Drafted in the second round in 2003, his career minor league numbers are excellent – 3.66 ERA, 8.1K/9IP, 3.0BB/9IP, 1.21 WHIP.  Houser was added to the Rays’ 40-man roster last year and appears to have one option remaining.  He is a fringe Top10 prospect for the Rays but doesn’t seem to be in their future rotation plans.  Houser received a 50-game suspension last year for PEDs, but his numbers this year have remained strong in AAA (2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).

2008 All-Star Game participants Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton, Joakim Soria, Justin Duchscherer, George Sherrill, Dioner Navarro, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Dempster, and Ryan Ludwick were all acquired via the Rule 5 draft, minor trades, or as minor league free-agents prior to becoming significant contributors to their respective teams.  Acquiring relatively inexpensive talent without giving up bonafide prospects can be the difference between contending and pretending for teams like the Rangers that don’t have the budget to bring in big name free agents on a yearly basis. 

Acquiring talented but unappreciated/under-valued players during the off-season typically requires that a team have three things:
(1) space on their 40-man roster,
(2) adequate talent in their farm system to satisfy the needs of another team, and
(3) a GM who is anxious to improve the talent-level of his 40-man roster. 
In my opinion, the Rangers should satisfy these three criteria in the upcoming months.

Space on the 40-Man Roster
Although the talent level for the Rangers is higher now than at any time since the late 90’s, there is clearly room to improve the back end of the 40 man roster.  As things currently stand, the Rangers will end the 2008 season with 45 players on their 40 man roster.  Wright, Bradley, Jennings, and Vasquez will be free agents at the end of the season and will come off the 40 until they sign a major league contract with the Rangers or agree to salary arbitration.  In my opinion, there are eight players currently on the 40-man roster who are candidates to be cut or designated for assignment.  The players in the order that I think they should be waived are:
(1) Gordon – Last on, first off.  The 30 yo, recently converted pitcher is a good story but not worthy of a spot on the Ranger’s off-season 40 man roster.
(2) Catalanotto – During the last two months, Cat has started fewer than two games per week.  The 2009 Rangers might be slightly better with Cat on their bench, but for the long-term, the Rangers would benefit from giving Cat’s ABs to a younger player.  Ideal case would be a trade to a team willing to take on his salary.
(3) White – A nice AAA season (54 IP, 3.54 ERA, 10.6K/9IP, 1.38 WHIP) has been cancelled out by a miserable run in the Rangers bullpen (5 App, 1.2 IP, 21.60 ERA).
(4) Rheinecker – A LOOGY who just lost a season due to injury.
(5) Metcalf – A good glove/light bat (253/300/370/670) tag works for SS but not 3B.
(6) Littleton – The right-hander did nothing in 2008 (4.01 ERA, 9K/9IP, 1.37 WHIP) to distinguish himself from ~100 other AAA relievers.
(7) Loe – Despite a good run in the major league bullpen (3.14 ERA in 28.2 innings), the right-hander’s mediocre AAA season (5.59 ERA) and lack of prolonged major league success make him expendable.
(8) Murray – An oft-injured pitcher with good, but not great stuff 

Waiving Cat, White, and Gordon (I think) would result in the players becoming free agents.  The other five players would likely pass through waivers unclaimed, allowing the Rangers to designate them for assignment.  Re-signing Milton Bradley and assigning Mayberry, Vallejo, and Poveda to the 40 would bring the Rangers roster to 37.  That leaves space for three new players on the Rangers 40 man roster.  If additional space is needed, then Mathis, Gabbard, and Arias could likely be traded in a deal or two for prospects who are not eligible for thr Rule 5 draft.  There has been much made of potential off-season trades of a catcher and an outfielder, but I think it likely that the return in such a trade would include a major league player, thus there would be not net change in the 40-man roster.

Rangers Trade Candidates
Although the Rule 5 draft and the pool of minor league free agents can be a nice source of “free” minor league talent, acquiring players placed on waivers or players that are specifically targeted by a team typically requires at least a minor trade. The availability and quality of the player that is targeted will naturally dictate if and whom the Rangers would have to trade.  In my opinion, the list of expendable players in the Rangers organization includes:

Marcus Lemon – Compelling SS/2B bat is behind Andrus, Duran, Arias, and Vallejo on the Rangers prospect list.
Kennil Gomez – Great 2008 numbers, but he is not among the Rangers Top10 pitching prospects.
Joaquin Arias – Near-ready prospect is likely no higher than third on the list of SS and utility infielders for the Rangers.
John Mayberry – Power-hitting prospect is likely no higher than fifth on the Rangers COF depth chart behind Hamilton, Byrd, Murphy, Cruz, and Boggs.
Andrew Laughter – Near-ready bullpen arm
Brennan Garr – Near-ready bullpen arm
Evan Reed – Good arm, but well down Rangers prospect list
Renny Osuna – see Lemon
Michael Schlact – Likely no closer than 10th in line for a shot at the Rangers starting rotation.
Ben Harrison – Behind Mayberry and at least 5 others for shot at COF spot.
Ian Gac – Breakout 2008 but no higher than 3 on the Rangers list of 1B prospects
Steve Murphy – Fringe, but near-ready outfielder
Zach Phillips – See Evan Reed

The list is intended to provide a sense of the type of players that the Rangers could use to compensate another team without dipping into what are considered to be the team’s most talented major and minor league players.  Depending on whether a trade happens before or after the Rule 5 draft, Arias, Mayberry, Harrison, and Gac might need to be added to an opposing team’s 40 man roster.  Players that need not be added to the 40 man roster would likely be considered more valuable to another team. 

Players to Target
The pool of players that I used for the selection process was restricted to pitchers whose off-season trade value is likely to be less than a Top20 prospect from the Rangers.  To further reduce the number of candidates, I chose to restrict the analysis to pitchers under the age of 28 whom the Rangers would control for at least 3 years.  In my opinion, the three best places to look for the kind of low-risk, high-reward pitchers that the Rangers should target are: (1) bullpens, (2) prospect scrap heaps, and (3) the waiver wire.  The top candidates selected from the bullpens of other teams are presented below.  A follow-up post will capture pitchers from the latter two categories.

Miscast Relievers (Examples – Jeremy Guthrie, Derek Lowe, Braden Looper, Jonathan Sanchez, Todd Wellemeyer)
To select pitchers in this category, I reviewed the MLB stats of pitchers who averaged more than an inning per appearance in 2008 while pitching primarily out of the bullpen and who were used primarily as starters when they were in the minor leagues.  These criteria were used to identify players who are serving as long relievers/spot starters at the major league level but who were developed as starting pitchers.  The following pitchers were selected based on their minor and major league strikeout and walk rates, WHIPs, and ERAs.

Jared Burton (CIN) – 27 yo RHP – Burton was claimed in the Rule 5 draft prior to the 2007 season.  As shown in his stats, Burton’s transition from the minor to the major leagues has gone smoothly:
Majors - 3.59 ERA, 8.6 K/9IP, 3.39 BB/9IP, 1.27 WHIP
Minors – 2.36 ERA, 8.47 K/9IP, 3.84 BB/9IP, 1.13 WHIP
Armed with a mid-90’s fastball, change-up, and slider, Burton has proven to be an effective middle-reliever for the Reds.  Burton was a starter in college and his first two years in the minors, but has been used primarily as a reliever since 2005.  With fewer than two years of service time and a three-pitch arsenal, it might behoove a team like the Rangers to see if Burton could return to being a starter.

Ramon Ramirez (KC) – 26 yo RHP – Traded twice in the last three years, Ramirez has appeared in 48 games in 2008 posting a 2.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.  In 134 innings spanning three major league seasons, Ramirez has posted a 3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7K/9, and 3.5BB/9.  Ramirez’ ML career has been restricted to the bullpen, but most of his 553 minor league innings came as a starter where he produced peripherals that were consistent with his major league performance (4.25 ERA, 9.1K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.31 WHIP).  Ramirez supposedly has a low 90’s fastball, power curve, and splitter that would likely support a return to a starting role.

Carlos Villanueva (MIL) – 26 yo LHP – Since being promoted to the big league club in 2007, Villanueva has used three average pitches and a deceptive delivery to produce above average numbers as a swing man out of the bullpen.
Majors – 247 IP, 4.14 ERA, 3.09 BB/9IP, 7.23 K/9IP. 1.28 WHIP
Minors – 464 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.43 BB/9IP, 8.92 K/9IP, 1.10 WHIP
Villanueva was a starter in the minor leagues and with only two years of major league service time, it is possible that he could become a relatively long-term solution to a team seeking an effective and relatively inexpensive left-handed starter.

Matt Albers (BAL) – 25 yo RHP – Traded from the Astros to the Orioles prior to the 2008 season, Albers has appeared in 28 games for Baltimore.  In 49 innings, he has produced a 3.49 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and ~5K/9IP that is a step above his career numbers (5.20 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and ~6K/9IP in parts of 3 major league seasons).  Albers’ minor league resume includes 601 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, >9K/9IP, and >2:1 K:BB as a starter.  Albers has an excellent curve that he combines with a low 90’s fastball.

Edwar Ramirez (NYY) – 27 yo RHP – The Yankees reliever has tossed 59.1 IP in his major league career, racking up 75 K’s (11.4/9IP) against 29 BB’s while posting a 4.40 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  His 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 2008 speak to improvements that he made between 2007 and 2008.  Ramirez was a minor league starter until he was hurt and missed most of the 2004 and 2005 seasons.  His minor league career includes 190 IP, ~12K/9IP, <3BB/9IP, 2.83 ERA, and 1.1 WHIP.  As with the players listed above, if Ramirez failed as a starter, then he could return to the bullpen where he has proven to be a productive pitcher.

Anthony Reyes (CLE) – 26 yo RHP – Traded to the Indians at mid-season after disappointing the Cardinals, Reyes has started 6 games, pitched 34.1 innings, and posted a 1.93 ERA, 3.9K/9IP, and 1.25 WHIP.  During parts of 4 major league seasons, Reyes has bounced between the rotation and bullpen, throwing 220.2 innings with a 5.38 ERA, 6.9K/9IP, and 1.35 WHIP.  Pitching mostly in AAA, his minor league numbers have been much more respectable (353.2IP, 3.31 ERA, 8.8K/9IP, 1.11 WHIP). Reyes four pitch repertoire (mid-90s four-seamer, low-90s two-seamer, slider, change-up) appear perfectly suited for a starting role.

Note - Some teams transition pitching prospects into their starting rotations following a 1-2 year apprenticeship in the bullpen.  Prying these young pitchers away from their respective teams can be an extraordinary challenge.  Other pitchers are simply viewed as bullpen arms without any real value as starters.  Unfortunately, I am unable to distinguish the two and thus it is possible that some of the players in the above list might be deemed untouchable by their parent club. 

A second FanPost will follow with descriptions of pitchers in the following two categories:

Big Talent/Poor Results

Casualties of the 40-Man Roster

Nippert, Harrison, Cruz, and Teagarden have become the flavors of the month for the Rangers. In his last two starts, Nippert has pitched 12 innings, struck out 11, walked 4, and given up just 1 run.  In his last 6 starts, Harrison has pitched 39 innings, striking out 27 while compiling an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.23.  In September, Teagarden has a 417 avg with 3 2B and 4 HR in 24 ABs while Cruz has a 324 BA with 3 HR and 2 2B in 37 ABs.

And while I want to believe that the recent performances of these four players are indicative of future greatness, I am haunted by the late season successes and subsequent failures of previous Rangers prospects/reclamation projects in whom I similarly wanted to believe.

In 2006, Robinson Tejeda was called up to the Rangers in mid-August and was allowed to audition for a spot in the 2007 rotation.  Between August 19th and October 1st, Tejeda compiled a 4-2 record in 9 starts.  He pitched 54.1 innings, struck out 25, walked 15, and posted an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of 1.34.  2007 started promisingly enough but control problems led to a demotion from which he never recovered.

On August 26, 2005, Kam Loe started the 1st of an 8-game trial as a member of the Rangers rotation.  Loe pitched 46.2 innings, struck out 17, walked 16, won 4, lost 2, and produced an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.27.  I am convinced that Loe's impressive 2005 finish coupled with Chris Young's relatively unimpressive run during the same period led the Rangers to decide that Loe was a better candidate for the 2006 rotation.  The result?  Young was part of the 2005 San Diego trade that stands as JD's worst move as Rangers' GM. 

Based on a radio interview during spring training this year, I think that JD has learned the folly in evaluating players based on their performances in September.  When asked about David Murphy's likely place on the Rangers 2008 active roster, JD replied that given the line-ups and motivation levels of opponents, he placed significantly less emphasis on the performances of his own players in games played in September and March.   

Like many of you, I want to believe that Nippert's bullpen session two weeks ago has converted him from a fringe long reliever into a key member of future Rangers rotations.  I also want to believe that Harrison will make us fondly recall the days when Kenny Rogers anchored the staff.  And it would be great if both of these guys were throwing baseballs to a GG-caliber catcher whose major league hitting numbers exceeded those that he posted in the minors.  But the more realistic side of me knows that Nippert could easily go the way of Tejeda, Harrison could be a year or two away from being a reliable major league starter, and Teagarden's K-rate could prevent him from being anything more than a good defensive catcher who holds down the #9 spot in the line-up. 

You'll note that Cruz failed to make the previous paragraph.  The reason for that is that I agree with those of you who believe that Cruz is poised for an outstanding 2009 season.  The reasons for my optimism are two-fold:

(1) Cruz's plate discipline has taken an undeniable step forward in 2008 and major league pitchers are now being forced to throw him strikes.  Need proof?  Check out his K/BB numbers in Septembers past and present:

2006 - 18K/5BB in 90 AB;  2007 - 17K/1BB in 55 AB;  2008 - 6K/9BB in 37 AB

(2) Cruz's numbers against teams preparing for the playoffs have been outstanding (375 BA in 7 games vs LAAA and BOS), which suggests that his 2008 finish is not a mirage produced by him facing AAA and AAAA pitchers who are auditioning for spots on their team's 2009 pitching staffs.

Several of you have asked what motivated my recent flurry of FanPosts.  In a moment of self-reflection last weekend, it occurred to me that the education and entertainment that I receive from many of you who post at LSB and other Ranger-related sites far exceeds my own contributions.  In an attempt to rectify the situation, I embarked on a mission to submit seven FanPosts during a seven day period.  I would like to thank those of you who humored my foray into the blogosphere with comments and questions.

Most of the topics I chose to research for the FanPosts were selected to evaluate the strength of the growing consensus that the Rangers young talent-base is among the best in baseball.  My admittedly subjective takeaway is that the Rangers indeed appear to have one of the stronger, if not the strongest minor league system in baseball.  Combine that with the emergence of several young offensive stars on the major league team and I am as optimistic about the Rangers capturing a title as I have been in the 30+ years that I have followed the team. 

The final post was purely self-serving and provided me a platform to express my own ideas about the need for fans and the organization to exercise patience in finishing the build that will hopefully result in a Rangers championship.  As I have stated in several threads, I am of the opinion that trading multiple, high-ceiling prospects for major league players with equivalent or less talent and fewer years of club control is one of the surer ways to reduce the odds of winning a title.  I realize that view is at odds with the views of many of you and I look forward to future discussions on the topic.

Having gone through this exercise, I have a much greater appreciation for the time and effort that goes into producing data-rich and reasonably accurate prose that can be readily digested in the 2-5 minutes that most readers have to spare.  Fitting this research and writing time into a schedule that already features obligations to family, work, and other interests is a challenge.  I have a newfound respect for those who maintain and/or make significant contributions to blogs on a daily basis, often without pay and in the spare time that is available between work, school, parenting, etc.  For that reason, I would like to take this moment to recognize Adam and Zywica , Jamey and Scott, Joey and Jason Parks, Mike, Jason Cole, and Shroom for the sacrifices that they have made and the outstanding work that they have done to support the Rangers internet community.  Each of you deserve the utmost respect and gratitude from those of us who benefit from the web-sites that you have built and the daily writings that you produce to educate, entertain, and induce the hoard to think and discuss our favorite baseball team.  The final word that I would like to submit before signing off as a daily Rangers blogger?  A hearty and heart-felt “Thanks”.

In my humble opinion, the notion of “building” a World Series champion in baseball is as mis-guided as the notion of “survival of the fittest” in biology.  In both cases, the final “winners” result more from circumstances that are beyond their control than any capacity that a team or species has developed to compete or survive.  Confused?  Bear with me and I’ll try to make it worth your while.

A key tenet of Darwin’s theory of evolution is the concept of natural selection, which essentially states that those species within a given niche that have better survival skills will ultimately dominate the niche at the expense of those species that are less well-adapted. Described in concert with the tenet of random mutation in his book “The Origin of Species,” Darwin accurately portrayed how the living world on earth came to be.  Groundbreaking though it was, Darwin’s tome introduced the ill-turned phrase “survival of the fittest” in his description of natural selection.  The problem with the phrase is that it suggests that the most superior species within a niche ultimately survive, when in fact that is very often not the case.  As a hypothetical to explain the concept, assume that there is an ant colony in Arlington that recently resulted from three freak mutations that produced ants that combine amazing reproductive rate with the ability to convert sunlight into energy (and thus have very limited needs for nourishment) and to preserve water to the point that they can withstand extensive droughts.  The colony is thriving and preparing to conquer the ant kingdom until a bulldozer in Jerry Jones’ fleet runs through the anthill, killing all that are inside.  The new ant species represented the fittest in its class, but due to poor timing and location failed to survive. In Darwin’s zeal to describe his new theory, he left out perhaps the most important tenet of evolution – that circumstances beyond a species’ control (aka luck) play an enormous role in determining the survivors. 

Every year baseball writers, fans, owners, and GMs make the same mistake as Darwin.  They obsess over the “piece(s)” that their teams need to win a World Series.  Oft-times trades are made or free agents are signed to add the ace, closer, and/or middle-of-the-order bat that a team “needs” to win a world series.  While building the perfect beast, teams often ignore the profound influence of luck that ultimately determine the champion.  How significant is the “luck” component of the championship equation?  I would argue that it is more important than having a dominant pitcher in your rotation or a bopper in the middle of your lineup.  I see that many of you are furrowing your brow, so I offer you the following paragraph.

Each year, thirty major league teams are built and compete over a 162 game schedule.  In my opinion, those 162 games are enough to minimize the influence of hot-streaks and cold ones, minor injuries, coaching gaffes, umpiring mistakes, etc. and reveal which teams have the optimal mix of talent and coaching as well as having been most successful in avoiding catastrophic injuries.  If you agree, then hopefully you will also agree that the team with the best regular season record is probably also the “best” team in the league.  If you are still with me, then you will probably be surprised to note that in the thirteen years since the institution of the wild-card and the expansion of the MLB playoffs, the team with the best regular season record has won the World Series only twice (Yankees in ’98, BoSox in ’07).  That is the same number of times that the team with the 2nd best and 4th best regular season records have won and half as often as champs that failed to rank among the top 5 in regular season wins (see below).  In fact, the rate at which the team with the best regular season record wins the World Series is only slightly higher than what you would expect if all eight teams in the playoffs had an equal chance of winning the title (15.4% vs 12.5%).  The simple explanation for this surprising result is that opponent matchups, hot- and cold-streaks, weather, untimely errors, minor injuries, coaching mistakes, media attention, family issues, and the baseball gods profoundly affect the outcome of a seven game series.  Force a single team to win three such series and the outcome becomes essentially random.  The Grand Unifying Principle of baseball and biology?  Luck profoundly affects the selection of "winners." 

World Series Champ     Regular season record  
1995 – Braves                                   #2
1996 – Yankees                                #3
1997 – Marlins                                   #4
1998 – Yankees                                #1
1999 – Yankees                                #3
2000 – Yankees                                #9
2001 – Diamondbacks                    #6
2002 – Angels                                    #4
2003 – Marlins                                   #7
2004 – Red Sox                                 #3

2005 – White Sox                               #2
2006 – Cardinals                              #13
2007 – Red Sox                                  #1

In the face of a chaotic world where luck disproportionately affects outcome, what is a poor GM to do?  The answer to this is simple.  Stack the deck by maximizing the number of times you make the playoffs.  Worry less about building the perfect team and more about creating a team that will contend for an extended period of time.  Recent history suggests your odds of winning a championship are much greater if you make the playoffs 4 or 5 times with the 4th or 5th best regular season record than if you make the playoffs once or twice with the best record in baseball.

Which brings me to the Rangers.  As has been noted ad nauseum on this blog and elsewhere, the Rangers have done an amazing job recently of acquiring and developing high-ceiling talent.  In my opinion, the organization currently boasts twenty players who will begin 2009 at AA or above who possess the talent to perform at above average to superstar levels in the major leagues (see below).  With only a few exceptions, all of these players are under team control for at least four years with many of them at least six years away from being free agents.  And there is more talent in the pipeline as the Rangers lower level minor league teams are stacked with prospects.  Assuming many of the young Rangers continue their current development paths (and assuming that they are able to resign their pending free agents and trade from their surplus of catchers for an equally talented, near ML-ready player or two), then it is very likely that the major league team will contend for the playoffs during at least a 3-6 year window beginning in 2011.

       Player (pos)          Yrs till FA           Ceiling   
(1)  Hamilton (OF)              4                       10 
(2)  Kinsler (2B)                 4-5                     10 
(3)  Davis (1B)                     6                       10 
(4)  Feliz (SP)                      6+                       9  
(5)  Holland (SP)                6+                       9   
(6)  Andrus (SS)                  6+                      9
(7)  Saltalamacchia (C)      5                        9 
(8)  Ramirez (C)                   6                        9  
(9)  Smoak (1B)                   6+                      9   
(10) McCarthy (SP)              3                        8   
(11) Hurley (SP)                   6                        7+  
(12) Teagarden (C)             6                        8   
(13) Borbon (CF)                 6+                      8
(14) Kiker (SP)                     6+                      8  
(15) Poveda (SP)                 6+                      8   
(16) Madrigal (RP)               6                        8  
(17) Young (SS)                   5                        8 
(18) Wilson (RP)                  3                        8 
(19) Francisco (RP)             2                        8   
(20) Blalock (1B)                  1                        8   
The 10-point scale used to rate talent in the table above uses a score of 7 for players performing on-par with other players in the league at their respesective position.

Perhaps better than any other, the Ranger fan base knows the many ways that a baseball organization can fail.  So how can Tom Hicks et al. short-circuit this pending golden age of Rangers baseball? 
(1) Fire Jon Daniels – Though he has his detractors, I don’t think that anyone can argue that the gains that this organization has made in accumulating and developing talent are a direct result of JD’s vision and execution.  The emphasis on scouting, international signings, and the draft as well as the expanded off-season development programs and team-building exercises all derive from the plan that JD instituted almost three years ago.  Firing JD now would eliminate the organization’s primary visionary and potentially set the team back several years as they try to adapt to a new vision.
(2) Take a short-term view on building the team – There is little doubt that the Rangers could field a very competitive team next year by signing a significant free agent pitcher and trading a number of high-end prospects for established major leaguers.  In my opinion, executing on such a plan would reduce the number of years that the team would be competitive and thus reduce the chances that they would win a title.
 
Be patient, Ranger fans.  Your time is nigh.  Appreciate the building process for the next couple of years and enjoy the fruits that will result beginning in 2011.

Spokane is involved in a back-and-forth affair in Game 2 of their best-of-five series with the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes.  The Volcanoes called up their 23 yo ace-of-the-Rookie League staff to start Game 2 and he got the better of Martin Perez through the first four innings.  Trailing 4-2 in the sixth, the Indians scored four times to take a lead that they lost when the Volcanoes scored 3 in the top of the 7th.  The Indians have scored 3 in the bottom of the 7th to take a 9-7.  Want to listen to the exciting conclusion?  Go to www.spokaneindiansbaseball.com and click the "listen live" button on the left-hand side of the page.  

According to Shroom, we'll be treated to Michael Main pitching Game 2 of the Clinton-Cedar Rapids series.  Clinton faces elimination in the best-of-three series.  I suspect that the Main man will be fired up for this one.

Schlact will get the shell-shocked Missions in Game 3 of the Frisco-San Antonio series.  Don't be surprised to see the Roughriders finish off the sweep tonight.

Gordon is scheduled to face the I-Cubs in Oklahoma City at 7:00.  The PCL best-of-five series is currently tied at 1-1.

Each year, Bill Simmons (ESPN) presents a ranked list of whom he considers to be the Top 40 or so players in the NBA.  His ranking is based on what he believes to be the relative trade-value for each player which takes into account factors like performance, salary, length of contract, and age.  I decided to go through the same exercise with the Rangers Top 57 (don’t ask) players.  As noted in the table below, I used a combination of the player’s major league level performance (“Perf” column using a ratio of predicted 2009 performance/performance ceiling), estimated 2009 salary (“Salary” column), and years under club control (“Years” column) to rank the Rangers.  The final column labeled “40” presents the year that I predict the player will be added to the 40-man roster.  I didn’t use the 40-man roster information for the ranking exercise but used it to make a couple of points in the comments section below. 

Regarding the performance metric (labeled “Perf”), the second value (ceiling) is self-explanatory; the first value (actual) is the performance that I would predict for the player if they played in the major leagues in 2009.  The minor league players on the list have relatively low “actual” performance numbers not because they have not performed well in the minors, but because I would not expect them to perform well in the major leagues right now.  I used the “actual” performance numbers to estimate the probability that a player will reach his ceiling.  For instance, Font received a “ceiling” of 10 but wasn’t ranked among the other 10’s due to his “actual” ranking of 1, which reflects the relatively high probability that he will fail to reach his ceiling.  An explanation of what the various performance numbers correspond to is captured in the key at the bottom of the table. 

One other note, the ranking is highly subjective and intended to stimulate discussion.  Hopefully, you will feel compelled to point out problems with the list and explain the rationale for your disagreement.  An exercise that I found to be useful in producing the ranking was to ask, “Would I trade player X for player Y if I were trying to build a team that will contend for the next 3-5 years?” 

Rank    Player (pos)     Years     Salary    Perf      40
  (1)      Hamilton (OF)      4         $1-6M      9/10    2009
  (2)      Kinsler (2B)        4-5         $3M        9/10    2009
  (3)      Davis (1B)             6         $400K     7/10    2009
  (4)      Feliz (SP)              6+        $400K     6/9      2010
  (5)      Holland (SP)        6+        $400K     6/9      2010
  (6)      Andrus (SS)         6+        $400K      6/9     2010
  (7)      Salt... (C)               5          $450K      7/9     2009
  (8)      Ramirez (C)         6          $400K      6/9     2009
  (9)      Smoak (1B)         6+        $400K      5/9     2010
 (10)     Main (SP)             6+        $400K      4/9     2012
 (11)     McCarthy (SP)      3         $600K      7/8     2009
 (12)     Beavan (SP)        6+        $400K      4/9     2012
 (13)     Bradley (DH)        0          $10M        9/9    2009
 (14)     Feldman (SP)      4          $600K      7/7    2009
 (15)     Hurley (SP)           6          $400K      5/7+  2009
 (16)     Teagarden (C)     6          $400K      5/8    2009
 (17)     Borbon (CF)        6+         $400K      5/8    2009
 (18)     Harrison (SP)      6           $400K      5/7    2009
 (19)     Hunter (SP)          6           $400K     5/7     2009
 (20)     Kiker (SP)            6+         $400K      4/8     2011
 (21)     Poveda (SP)        6+         $400K      4/8     2009
 (22)     Beltre (OF)           6+         $400K      2/9     2012
 (23)     Font (SP)              6+         $400K      1/9    2012
 (24)     Madrigal (RP)      6           $400K      5/8     2009
 (25)     Young (SS)          5           $13M        8/8     2009
 (26)     Padilla (SP)       1-2         $12M        7/8     2009
 (27)     Wilson (RP)        3           $1M           6/8     2009
 (28)     Francisco (RP)   2           $1.25M     6/8     2009
 (29)     Laird (C)              2           $2.5M        7/7     2009
 (30)     Boscan (SP)      6+          $400K       3/8     2012
 (31)     Ramirez (SP)     6+          $400K      3/8      2012
 (32)     Perez (SP)          6+          $400K      2/8      2013
 (33)     Murphy (OF)        5            $400K      6/7      2009
 (34)     Boggs (OF)         6            $400K      5/7      2009
 (35)     Duran (2B)          6            $400K      5/7      2009
 (36)     Blalock (1B)        1            $6.2M      6/8      2009
 (37)     Rupe (RP)           4            $400K     5/7      2009
 (38)     Vallejo (2B)         6+          $400K     4/7      2009
 (39)     Ross (SP)           6+          $400K     1/7+    2013
 (40)     Murphy (SP)        6+          $400K     3/7      2012
 (41)     Benoit (RP)          1           $3.5M      6/7      2009
 (42)     Diamond (SP)    6+          $400K     4/7      2009
 (43)     Arias (SS)            5            $400K     4/7      2009
 (44)     Millwood (SP)    1-2          $11M       7/7      2009
 (45)     Cruz (OF)             5            $400K     6/7      2009
 (46)     Byrd (OF)             1             $2.5M      7/7     2009
 (47)     Mayberry (OF)     6+          $400K     4/7      2009
 (48)     Mendoza (SP)     6            $400K     4/6      2009
 (49)     Nippert (SP)        5            $400K     4/7      2009
 (50)     Gabbard (SP)     4             $500K    4/5      2009
 (51)     Mathis (SP)         6            $400K     3/5      2009
 (52)     Murray (RP)         6           $400K      3/4      2009
 (53)  Rheinecker (RP)  4            $400K      3/4      2009
 (54)     Littleton (RP)      5            $400K      3/4      2009
 (55)     Loe (RP)             4            $400K      3/4      2009
 (56)     Metcalf (3B)        5            $400K      4/6      2009
 (57) Catalanotto (DH) 1-2            $4M        5/5      2009

Key
 5  =  back-up position player, middle reliever
 7  =  avg position player, #3-#5 starter, late inning reliever
 9  =  all-star position player, top-of-the-rotation starter
10 =  superstar

I included Milton Bradley with an estimated salary of $10M on the list even though he will not be on the roster at the conclusion of the season.  I did this to get a sense of where he ranks among the players who are under team control in 2009.  I am in the camp that believes that the Rangers will re-sign him.  If that happens, then 43 of the 57 players on the list will need to be on the 40-man roster this winter.  Though you hate to lose major league talent, there are more than two players at the bottom of the list who could be removed without causing me to lose any sleep.

Do the Rangers have the talent to compete for a championship?
Most perennial championship contenders have 2-4 superstar-level players (10’s on this list), several more all-star caliber players (9’s), and then fill out their rosters with average to above average players (7’s and 8’s).  In my opinion, Hamilton, Kinsler, and Davis will be the superstar-caliber players around which the Rangers can build a contender within the next two years.  There are 16 players in AA or higher with ceilings of 8 or 9, plus Justin Smoak who is expected to develop rapidly.  Assuming the minor league and young major league players with these ceilings continue to progress, it is conceivable that by the end of 2010 the Rangers could have a 25-man roster stocked almost completely with players with above-average talent.  That is not to suggest that the Rangers are likely to be World Championship contenders in 2010, but they could very well have the talent necessary to compete for championships once the major league seasoning process has taken effect.

When can we realistically expect this group of players to contend for a World Series title?
2011.  Andrus, Feliz, Holland, Borbon, and Smoak will likely graduate to the majors in 2010.  Assuming all goes well, all five players could make significant contributions to the 2011 club.  By then, McCarthy, Feldman, Hurley, Harrison, and Hunter will hopefully have established themselves as average to above-average starting pitchers and a combination of Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis, Bradley, Young, and Saltalamacchia, Ramirez, or Teagarden should be major contributors to the most feared line-up in baseball.  Also in 2011, Wilson, Madrigal, and Rupe should be anchoring a bullpen that might also feature Francisco, Diamond, Murray, and whatever pitchers on the roster prove to be effective in short bursts.  2011 could also see an influx of pitching talent with the likely promotions of Kiker and Poveda.

Whom should the Rangers trade and when?
In my opinion, there are only four reasons to seek a trade:
(1) You have so much talent on the 40 man roster that you must trade a few of your less valuable players for one talented major league player or one or more prospects that need not be protected on the 40.  In my opinion, this was why Boston did the Gagne for Murphy/Gabbard/Beltre trade.
(2) You need to provide a spot on the major league team for a more talented young player.  Example – Soriano to the Nationals to make way for Kinsler.
(3) Another team is willing to trade to you one or more players that you value more than the player that you are being asked to give up in trade. Example – Texeira/Mahay to the Braves for Andrus, Feliz, et al.
(4) You are one or two pieces away from becoming one of the best teams in the league.
 If you ask me, only #2 and perhaps #3 could apply to the Rangers this off-season.  For #2, the excess of major league-ready catchers necessitates a move with Laird the most likely to go given that the Rangers only control him for two more years.  As for #3, you can never predict when another team will covet one of your players, though if someone starts asking about Catalanotto, Millwood, Byrd, Murphy, or Benoit, I hope that JD listens.

Should the Rangers trade for pitching?
Only if they receive a pitcher whose predicted performance and years of team control meet or exceed the player that you are trading.  In my opinion, the suggestions that one or more of Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis, or Andrus plus Feliz, Holland, Hurley, or Harrison be traded is insane given how few pitchers are likely to be available that have the requisite performance rating and years of team control needed to meet the young talent that the Rangers would be giving up. 

When will management of the 40-man roster become a problem?
As noted above, at least three players on the list will need to be removed from the 40-man roster this winter.  Assuming the Rangers fail to swap a catcher or another player on the 40-man roster for players who are not yet required to be on the roster, then they risk losing some combination of Catalanatto, Metcalf, Loe, Littleton, Rheinecker, Murray, Cruz, and Arias.  I'm okay with that.  Andrus, Smoak, Feliz, and Holland have a realistic shot at being added to the 40-man roster next year.  With only Blalock (if he's still on the team), Byrd, and Millwood (assuming he doesn't reach 180 IP) scheduled to come off the 40, at least two and perhaps three players among what are currently conidered to be the team's top50 players will need to be dropped.  Adding free agent talent in this environment will make the decisions inceasingly difficult.  Given the alternative, I'll gladly accept rooting for a team whose talent pool is so deep that you have to occasionally give up a guy with major league talent.

Many thanks to tball for the inspiration that led to today's fanpost.  This isn't the complete comparison of the A's and Rangers farm systems that tball suggested to Jamey, but it was a fun dataset to try to get my arms around.

A lot has been made of the recent accumulation and development of pitching prospects by the A's and Rangers.  To get a sense of how the A's and Rangers stockpiles of young pitching prospects compare, I gathered the 2008 stats for the Top20 or so pitchers under the age of 27 for both teams and categorized them as follows:  AAA/ML, A+/AA, A-/A, and Rookie.  Categorizing the pitchers made it easier to rank the pitchers from both teams since it eliminated the "ceiling vs probability of reaching ceiling" issue that makes stack-ranking younger and older prospects together so difficult.  Given that I know more about the Rangers prospects, the analysis was undoubtedly biased in the Rangers favor; for that reason I would highly recommend that you spend a few minutes with the stats below and draw your own conclusions.  The column entitled "Level" provides the level(s) that I used to compile the data that is shown.  "BAA" is Batting Average Against, LD% is the percentage of balls in play that are line drives, and FIP is a stat that combines the rates of home runs, walks, and strikeouts to estimate ERA.  In theory, the stat eliminates the influence of defense though its elimination of balls in play tends to under-estimate the performance of groundball pitchers.  The FIP used for the table below featured a park effect calculation to minimize the potential effect of a home-field advantage or disadvantage though the normalizer does not account for differences between leagues.   

AAA/ML
                   Age/Hand Level  IP    ERA   BAA   WHIP  BB,K,HR/9IP LD%  FIP
Smith           24/LHP    ML   160   4.23   247   1.37     4.2,5.6,1.0
Eveland       24/LHP    ML   139   4.21   260   1.47     4.4,6.1,0.5  
Gallagher   22/RHP    ML     93   5.23   274   1.59     4.7,8.0,1.0
Gonzalez     22/LHP   AAA   126  4.24   237   1.33     4.4,9.1,0.9     16      4.40
Braden        25/LHP   AAA     54   2.36   256   1.15     1.8,9.0,1.3     21      4.20
Meyer          27/RHP   AAA   126  4.48   251    1.33     3.7,7.8,0.8     15      4.28

vs

McCarthy   25/RHP      ML     16    2.25  228   1.13     2.8,5.1,1.1 
Feldman    25/RHP     ML    133   5.05  278   1.44     3.6,4.4,1.3
Harrison     22/LHP    AAA     88   3.43   271   1.33     2.9,5.7,0.6     13      4.13
Hurley         22/RHP    AAA     87   4.83   279   1.40     3.1,7.7,1.8     18      5.42
Hunter        22/RHP  A/AAA  166   3.41   270   1.23    1.8,5.7,1.0      16     4.42
Nippert       27/RHP    AAA     64   3.98   275   1.28     2.3,6.1,1.3      18     4.89

There are no stars among either team's ML-ready pitchers, but there are a lot of solid pitchers who can fill out a rotation and bullpen. Oakland's ML-ready pitchers are almost universally left-handed and league average.  Eveland and Smith have proven to be effective despite relatively high walk rates.  Gallagher is producing about as well as could be expected for a 22 yo pitching his first season in the major leagues.  Gonzalez generates a lot of K's with a plus curveball but his average fastball and change-up have made his transition to the big leagues difficult (7.18 ERA, 1.78 WHIP in 26.1 IP).  McCarthy's injury this year makes it difficult to compare his stats to the other pitchers, but as recently as 1.5 years ago he was considered to have perhaps the highest ceiling of any player on either team's list.  Feldman's age and peripherals peg him as being essentially equivalent to Smith and Eveland.  Harrison and Hurley have both shown that they can pitch at the big league level, though they are currently below average with mid 5 ERAs and ~1.5 WHIPs. During the next few years, it is likely that Hurley, Harrison, Hunter, Gallagher and Gonzalez will be performing at similar levels in the big leagues.  Nippert was thrown in as the sixth Ranger, though Gabbard or Mathis would have fit in just as well.  Given McCarthy's questionable health, the AAA/ML category falls on the A's side of the ledger.   

A+/AA
                    Age/Hand   Level      IP    ERA    BAA   WHIP    BB,K,HR/9IP    LD%   FIP
Cahill           20/RHP     A+/AA   128   2.61    185    1.01        3.5,9.5,0.4       10      3.26
Anderson    20/LHP      A+/AA   108   3.69    242    1.15        2.3,9.8,0.7       13      3.51
Simmons    21/RHP        AA      137   3.51    279    1.32        2.1,7.9,0.8       23      3.53
Mazarro        21/RHP   AA/AAA   173   2.74    249    1.15        2.3,6.5,0.3       21      3.30
Rodriguez    21/RHP       AA        43    5.20    298    2.23        9.3,9.1,0.2       21      4.80

vs

Feliz             20/RHP     A/AA     129    2.69     204   1.10        3.6,10.7,0.1    18     2.59
Holland       21/LHP      A/AA    154     2.27     210   0.99        2.4,9.4,0.2      15     2.63
Kiker            20/LHP        A+      124    4.73     292   1.42        2.7,8.0,1.0      12     4.55
Poveda       20/RHP        A+        94    4.47     241   1.31        3.8,9.3,1.0        8      4.58
Hyatt            24/RHP    A+/AA     143   3.58     239   1.23        3.0,7.1,0.8      13     4.18

The Top2 pitching prospects for both systems finished their seasons in AA.  The following question has been asked of national prospect experts, "Would you rather have Cahill and Anderson or Feliz and Holland?"  To date, the answer has been Cahill and Anderson, but Holland's amazing finish might be changing the minds of those who are in the know.  The remaining prospects in the A+/AA category are also very interesting.  Simmons has outstanding control but gives up a few more hits than you would like and doesn't strike out enough players to be considered a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.  Mazzaro pitched great in AA (1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) but has struggled in his first 33.2 innings in AAA (6.15 ERA, 1.72 WHIP).  Henry Rodriguez has an upper-90's fastball that he struggles to control.  He struck out 147 batters in 117 innings, but also issued 84 walks.  His transition from A+ to AA has not been pleasant (3.96 vs 7.46 ERA).  Kiker and Poveda both had good, though somewhat disappointing seasons in the Cal League.  Both pitchers use three pitches to produce almost 1K/IP.  Though Poveda posted a slightly higher walk rate this year than in the past (3.83/9IP), both pitchers are considered to have good control.  With the exception of the ERAs, which are difficult to compare between the Cal and Texas leagues, Kiker's and Poveda's numbers compare favorably to those of Simmons and perhaps slightly above Mazzaro due to Mazzaro's low k-rate. The fifth pitcher on the Rangers list posted outstanding numbers in stops at A+ and AA (and a spot start in AAA), though his age and lack of outstanding stuff leave him with lower upside than Rodriguez and tips the scale for the A+/AA pitchers in Oakland's favor.        

A-/A
                   Age/Hand   Level      IP      ERA    BAA    WHIP    BB,K,HR/9IP    LD%    FIP
Santos         22/RHP    A('07)  122      2.65                0.90          11K/9IP
Hernandez  21/LHP      A-/A      76      2.04    222     1.03        1.7,7.9,0.1      14       2.73
Ross            21/RHP       A         17      4.66    206     1.06        2.7,7.4,0.5      10       3.53
Italiano        22/RHP      A/A+    103     3.81    223     1.40        5.3,9.7,0.7      17       4.36

vs

Main            19/RHP        A          46     2.58    228     1.10        2.7,9.8,0.8       17       3.34
Beavan        19/RHP       A        125     2.37    233     1.01        1.4,5.3,0.9       14       4.19
Boscan        18/RHP      A-         71     3.12     251     1.10        1.4,8.9,0.4       15       3.04
Ramirez       19/RHP     A-          45     2.66    163     1.20         5.8,10.4,0.8     15      4.78
Perez            17/RHP     A-          65     3.65    276     1.47         3.9,7.4,0.3       19      4.06
Gomez         20/RHP      A           90     2.97    235     1.08         2.0,7.0,0.8       16      3.80
Murphy         21/LHP    A-/A         48     2.83                1.00         3.4,9.6,1.0
Pimental     18/RHP      A-          65     3.31                 1.21        4.3,7.4,0.6

The biggest disparity between the A's and Rangers minor league systems occurs at the low A levels.  Fautino de los Santos put up very good numbers in the Appy and SAL leagues last year (2.65 ERA, 10+K/9IP, 0.90 WHIP) but he has missed all but the first month of this season due to an arm injury.  Carlos Hernandez is a 21 yo LHP who posted very nice numbers in 75 innings of work in the NWL and MWL, however he is not included on any list of A's prospects that I've seen.  As a 2nd round pick in the 2008 draft, Tyson Ross has not pitched enough to know how he will transition to professional ball.  22 yo Craig Italiano opened the year with some of the best stats in the minor leagues as he repeated the Midwest League after an uninspiring 2007.  His early season 1.16 ERA, 10+K/9IP, and 1.11 WHIP is now looking like a mirage as he has put up a 9.90 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 30 Cal League innings.  In contrast to the A's, the Rangers low A minor league rotations are absolutely stacked.  No fewer than 5 pitchers are prjected to be mid-rotation or higher starters when they reach the big leagues.  Main, Ramirez, and Perez are all considered to have top-of-the-rotation stuff and posted numbers that support that contention.  Boscan combined high k and groundball rates with a low walk rate to dominate the NWL as an 18 yo.  Beavan and Gomez were among the MWL's most productive pitchers despite rather pedestrian k-rates.  Throw in Tim Murphy and Carlos Pimental and it is hard to imagine this wave of pitchers failing to produce fewer than 3 major league starters.  This category is an absolute slam dunk in favor of the Rangers.

Rookie
Inoa

vs

Font, Weiland, O'Campo, Ross

This is where my lack of knowledge of the A's farm teams and recent signees makes it difficult for me to compare the two systems.  A review of the A's rookie league team failed to reveal even a single pitcher with a compelling stat line.  Micheal Inoa is being touted as the next Felix Hernandez, but beyond that it appears that the A's low minor league cupboard appears to be bare.  In contrast, Weiland and O'Campo were among the AZL league's leading pitchers, Robbie Ross is touted to have three solid pitches, and Font is at least in the same neighborhood as Inoa in terms of potential.  As with the previous category, the collection of Rookie-level pitching talent clearly favors the Rangers.

Overall - Oakland might have a slight advantage at the upper levels, but the depth of high ceiling arms at the lower levels provides Texas with a clear advantage in the AL West Arms Race.

Four Rangers minor league teams are slated to begin playoff series this week.  Don’t be surprised if at least two of them hoist championship trophies at the end of the season.  Below is a brief breakdown of the Rangers playoff teams and their opponents.

Spokane (NWL)
With one game left to play, Spokane's record currently stands at 50 wins against only 25 losses and they have won 6 of their last 10 games.  The Indians rank first in the NWL in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed.  The pitching staff ranks first in the league in ERA, WHIP, and strike-outs while the hitters rank third in avg, OBP, SLG and OPS.  The Indians rotation features four outstanding young pitchers (Boscan, NeRa, Perez, and Pimental) and a solid bullpen (Schelct, Brader, and Young all have sub 3.00 ERAs).  With the exception of Matt West, the lineup is devoid of high draft picks and was hurt by the loss of its best hitter, Mike Bianucci, who broke his hand in the last week of the season.  Fry, Butler, Kaase, Guinn, and Bolden take turns producing the runs that have netted the team a 667 winning percentage.

Spokane will play a best of five series against the two-time defending champion Salem-Keizer Volcanoes with the winner claiming the 2008 NWL Championship.  The Volcanoes clinched the NWL West Division crwon with a victory last night.  The SanFran farm team's record is currently 40-35 with one game left to play.  The Volcanoes rank 5th in the NWL in hitting (708 OPS) and 5th in pitching (4.28 ERA).  Only two of their starters have ERAs below 4.00 and their ace, Mike Loree, will likely be unavailable until game 4 of the championship series as he started and pitched 6 innings in the Volcanoes' division-cliniching game yesterday.

Forecast
On paper, Spokane appears to be the better team in the NWL championship series.  If Boscan, NeRa, Perez, and Pimental pitch to their usual levels, then only a team-wide hitting slump or a few bullpen meltdowns stand between the Indians and a championship.

Clinton (MWL)
Clinton finished the regular season with 78 wins and 59 losses.  The Lumberkings are the best-hitting team in the MWL (1st in avg, SLG, and OPS) and 4th to 6th in most pitching categories, though only Lansing has posted significantly better pitching numbers among the six best staffs in the league.  After winning the 1st half West Division title going away, the team experienced a mid-season swoon brought on by several bullpen meltdowns, sloppy defense, an injury to Kennil Gomez, and the promotions of Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Ian Gac, and Renny Osuna.  During the past 4-6 weeks, the Lumberkings have returned to their winning ways behind a rotation that features Beavan, Main, and Tim Murphy and a line-up that is stacked with Moreland, Beltre, Smoak, Tim Smith, Christian Santana, and others. 

Clinton will begin the playoffs with a best-of-three series against the Cedar Rapids Kernels (72-66).  The Kernels, who won only 5 of the 15 regular season games that they played against the LumberKings, have a below average line-up (687 OPS ranked 10th in the MWL) and average pitching (3.57 ERA ranked 7th in the MWL).  If Clinton defeats Cedar Rapids, then they will begin a best-of-three series against the winner of the Burlington/Kane County series, both of whom outplayed the LumberKings in head-to-head matchups during the season.  If the LumberKings win both best-of-three series, then they will meet one of four possible opponents in the best-of-five Midwest League Championship Series.

Forecast
On the strength of an amazing start and good finish, Clinton finished with the best record in the Midwest League.  With a rotation featuring three pitchers with ERAs below 2.60 (Beavan, Main, and Murphy) and a line-up that includes the league’s best hitter (Moreland) and 3 bonafide prospects (Smoak, Beltre, and Santana), the LumberKings are as talented as any team in the MWL.  Surviving two best-of-three series and a best-of-five final is a longshot for any team which leaves the LumberKings with a much greater chance of losing their final game than hoisting the Midwest League trophy.

Frisco (Texas League)
Frisco finished the regular season with 84 wins against only 56 losses and took both the first and second half South Division titles in the Texas League.  The RoughRiders ranked among the league leaders in every offensive category including first in SLG and OPS.  The team was above average in the TL in most pitching categories including fourth in team ERA.  The RoughRiders rotation improved significantly during the second half of the season with the additions of Feliz, Holland, and Hyatt.  The bullpen features Garr, Laughter, and Beau Jones.  The lineup is stacked with Borbon (380 OBP), Andrus (350 OBP), and Vallejo (341 OBP) at the top and Majewski (852 OPS), Steve Murphy (795 OPS), Tracy (892 OPS), and others at the bottom clamoring to drive them in.

Frisco will open the playoffs with a best of five series against San Antonio.  The Missions finished the regular season with a 75-65 record on the strength of a very good pitching staff (1st in the TL with a 3.58 ERA) and a few very productive hitters (Kyle Blanks, Chad Huffman, and Drew Macias).  If Frisco defeats the Missions, then they will face the winner of the Arkansas/Northwest Arkansas series in a best of five series that will determine the Texas League Champion.

Forecast
Frisco has been the premiere team in the Texas League this year.  They won 21 of 32 games against San Antonio during the regular season and were almost as dominant against the two teams from Arkansas.  If Holland, Feliz, Borbon, Andrus, Vallejo, et al play to their usual standards, then it will require super-human efforts from their opponents or an act of god to deny the RoughRiders their second Texas League Championship.

Oklahoma (PCL)
Oklahoma finished the regular season with 74 wins and 66 losses and won the PCL American South Division by 7.5 games.  The Redhawks ranked 3rd in the PCL in pitching (4.46 ERA) and 8th in hitting (794 OPS).  The Redhawks rotation includes one legitimate prospect (Hunter), a couple of fringe prospects (Mathis and Ballard), and the rotation’s anchor (Elizardo Ramirez).  The line-up has been depleted by call-ups (Cruz, Arias, Duran, Teagarden) and currently stands as MaxRam, Chris Shelton, and the seven dwarfs (note: Mayberry ranks as the minor’s tallest dwarf). 

Oklahoma will open the playoffs with a best of five series against the Iowa Cubs.  The I-Cubs had the best record in the PCL, finishing with an 83-59 record.  The Cubs combine good pitching (4th in the PCL) and good hitting (3rd in the PCL) to good effect. 

Forecast
Unless MaxRam goes on a tear and Mayberry reverts to his early-season self, the Redhawks seem unlikely to score enough runs to adequately support any of the pitchers in the Oklahoma rotation whose names don’t begin with an “H” and end with an “unter.”

With the exception of the Spokane Indians, all of the Rangers minor league affiliates have completed their regular season schedules.  The 2008 season will undoubtedly rank among the Ranger’s most impressive player development years.  Below are a few of the many numbers and accomplishments of the 2008 minor leaguers that will be used to measure future Rangers farm systems.

One league MVP (Cruz in the PCL.  Moreland finished second in the MWL.)

Two players led their respective leagues in OPS (Cruz in the PCL and Moreland in the MWL).  MaxRam would have made it three if he had enough at bats to qualify for the Texas League crown.
Two complete game no-hitters were thrown by Rangers minor leaguers (Harrison and Nippert tossed 7-inning no-no’s)
Two Olympians (Teagarden for the USA; Frostad for Canada)

Three teams finished with the best overall record in their respective leagues (Frisco, Clinton, Spokane) – that’s more than any other organization in baseball
Three managers were named coach of the year (Scott Little for Frisco, Mike Micucci for Clinton, and Tim Hulett for Spokane)

Four prospects could be ranked among BA’s Top50 prospects (Feliz, Andrus, MaxRam, and Holland)

Five teams won divisional championships (Oklahoma, Frisco, Clinton, Spokane, and DSL Rangers) – That was the most of any team with only three other organizations (Angles, Giants, Yankees) had more than two divisional champions to their credit

Six minor league teams finished above 500 (Oklahoma, Frisco, Clinton, Spokane, AZL Rangers, DSL Rangers).  5 of the 6 finished 10 games above 500.

Six players appear to have graduated to the major leagues (Davis, Boggs, Rupe, Madrigal, Harrison, and Hurley)

Seven prospects are likely to be ranked among BA’s Top100 (Feliz, Andrus, MaxRam, Holland and Smoak appear to be locks. At least two of Borbon, Beavan, Main, Hurley, and Beltre are also likely to be among the Top100).

Eight games over 500 was where Oklahoma finished in the PCL.

Nine players finished in the Top3 of at least one statistical category
  Cruz (PCL) – OPS (#1), SLG (#1), RBI (#1), hits (#3), Runs (#3), 2B (#3)
  Moreland (MWL) – OPS (#1), SLG (#1), RBI (#1), hits (#3), runs (#3), 2B (#3)
  Boscan (NWL) – Wins (#1), WHIP (#2), SO (#3)
  Beltre (MWL) – Hits (#1), Runs (#1)
  Greene (MWL) – HR (#2), RBI (#3)
  Murphy (TL) – 3B (#1), 2B (#3)
  Andrus (TL) – Steals (#2)
  Beavan (MWL) – WHIP (#3)
  Bolden (NWL) – Runs (#3)
  Noteworthy – With a few more at bats or innings pitched, MaxRam, Wieland, Main, NeRa, Borbon, and others would have finished among league leaders, as well.

Twelve players are likely to be included in at least one national Top100 prospect list (Feliz, Andrus, MaxRam, Holland, Smoak, Borbon, Beavan, Main, Hurley, Beltre, Boscan, Hunter – note that 7 of these are pitchers)

Twelve games over 500 was how the AZL Rangers finished the season

Nineteen games over 500 was how Clinton finished the season

Twenty-three games over 500 was how the DSL Rangers finished the season
 

Twenty-five games over 500 is how Spokane will finish if they win their final game

Twenty-seven teams had cumulative minor league winning percentages for their top 7 minor league teams that are worse than the 56% posted by the Rangers.  The Giants (57%) and Yankees (58%) finished slightly ahead.

Twenty-eight games over 500 was how Frisco finished the season

49.3 – Average number of steals for Andrus, Borbon, and Vallejo against an average of only 12.7 caught stealing

One hundred thirteen games above 500 is how the Rangers top 6 minor league teams (minus Bakersfield and DSL Rangers #2) finished the 2008 season.  While I agree that the minor leagues are primarily about developing the physical and mental tools of your future major leaguers, I also believe that it is important to develop a winning attitude and camaraderie among teammates.  Creating an organization of winners is perhaps the single greatest accomplishment for the 2008 Rangers.  

Thanks to the magic of the internet and Shroom, who pointed out the link to the telecasts of the weekend series between Spokane and Boise, video is available at http://www2.fiberpipe.net/hawks/2007/default.asp for those interested in seeing Wilfredo Boscan, Martin Perez, and Neil Ramirez.  As a way of spurring discussion of three of the Rangers’ more interesting young pitching prospects, I’ve provided some of my thoughts below.

Relevant Background
Spokane’s opponents, the Boise Hawks, boast the best line-up in the NWL with a combined 287 batting avg, 364 OBP, 424 SLG, and 788 OPS.  Among their hitters are three NWL All-Stars (including highly touted prospect Josh Vitters) and a fourth player who leads the league in SLG. 

Boscan - Among the league leaders in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP, the 18 yo RHP has pitched 69.1 innings for Spokane with a 3.12 ERA, 9K/9IP, 1.5BB/9IP, 1.11 WHIP, and 251 BAA.  If you remove his three relief appearances, Boscan’s ERA, WHIP, and BAA improve to 2.75, 1.0, and 235, respectively.

Perez - As the youngest pitcher in the NWL, the 17 year old LHP has thrown 61.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA, 7.5 K/9IP, 3.9 BB/9IP, 1.52 WHIP, and 274 BAA.

Ramirez - A supplemental 1st round pick in 2007, the 19 yo RHP has pitched 44 innings in his first professional season and posted a 2.66 ERA, 10.3 K/9IP, 5.9 BB/9IP, 1.23 WHIP, and 166 BAA.

8/29/08
Boscan pitched 7 innings and gave up one run on 4 hits, no walks, and 4 strikeouts.  The hits were primarily singles on low-and-away fastballs that left-handers hit to left field.  Boscan mixed a change-up and very good curve with his fastball.  All three pitches have really nice downward movement, which explains his high groundball rate.  On this night, the curveball was his strikeout pitch as he either started it in the strike zone and broke it into the dirt or started it outside the zone and broke it over the plate.  Two very encouraging signs from the young pitcher - he almost never missed the catcher’s glove and he pitched as well with runners on base as he did with the bases clear.

8/30/08
Perez went 6 innings and gave up 1 ER on 6 hits, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts.  The lefthander has a really nice sweeping curve that he can throw at lefthanders and bring across the plate for strikes.  His fastball has good pace, but not much movement.  Perez’ pitching motion is different for his fastball and curve which probably explains the relatively high batting average that he’s given up.  In this game, there were probability ten balls that were hit hard for outs or base hits.  Perez’ control came and went, with several pitches being 2-3 feet from where he intended them to go.   

8/31/08
Ramirez went 4 innings and gave up 1 unearned run, 1 hit, and 1 BB while striking out 5.  If you like pitchers who are dominant and occasionally wild, then Ramirez is the guy for you.  NeRa threw over the head of the first batter he faced before striking him out.  He then hit the 2nd place hitter.  I think that the third batter was relieved when he struck out since he got to go back to the dugout where it was safe.  Ramirez mixed a very hard fastball and a beautiful curve throughout his four innings.  Both pitches produced a lot of swings and misses, though both occasionally eluded the catcher and made it to the backstop.  Ramirez’ 166 BAA in 2008 is real - only one player got good wood on a pitch.

Conclusions
All three teenagers appear to possess fastballs and curves that are average to above average.  Ramirez’ offerings are electric.  If he learns to control them and adds a change-up, he is my pick as the most likely of the three pitchers to dominate at the big league level.  Boscan is by far the most polished of the three pitchers.  The movement on his pitches combined with exceptional control make Boscan the highest ranked of the three pitchers, in my opinion.  Perez appears to be the most athletic of the three pitchers as witnessed by two outstanding defensive plays that he made.  With plenty of time to develop, Perez could emerge as an outstanding lefty in the Rangers rotation.  Until then, it should be fun watching these three guys anchor rotations as they advance through the farm system.

As a point of comparison, below are stats posted by recent Rangers prospects who pitched in Spokane.

Kiker (18yo) – 67 IP, 4.13 ERA, 51K, 35BB, 1.51 WHIP
Feliz (18yo) – 42.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 55K, 24BB, 1.33 WHIP (combines APP and NWL)
Hurley (18yo) – 28 IP, 5.40 ERA, 21K, 8BB, 1.31 WHIP
Main (18yo) - 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 18K, 7BB, 1.37 WHIP
Danks (18yo) – 12.2 IP, 8.53 ERA, 13K, 7BB, 1.50 WHIP
vs
Boscan (18yo) – 69.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 70K, 11BB, 1.11 WHIP
Perez (17 yo) - 61.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 53K, 28BB, 1.52 WHIP
Ramirez (19yo) - 44 IP, 2.66 ERA, 52K, 29BB, 1.23 WHIP