SB Nation User Blog: spurdynasty

Smoak Promoted to AAA

spurdynasty — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 13:14:25 -0000

Smoak Promoted to AAA

Going Bill James on Josey’s Great Game

spurdynasty — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 19:24:05 -0000

Although I usually skip the extended Josey-led discussions that are commonplace at LSB, I did take notice of the 97 comments that resulted from Josey's suggestion on Friday that Little Boy Donuts will not get credit for the Rangers' turnaround. While reading through that thread, it occurred to me that Josey's interaction with the Rangers' cyber-fans is akin to a crafty left-hander pitching against the Rangers. Josey's stuff isn't often very good, but he knows how to use it to bait opponents into swinging at pitches that are out of the strike zone. Against a line-up that is anxious to rack up home-runs, the approach can be surprisingly effective.

This revelation led me down the path of trying to understand Josey's repertoire. Like most veterans, Josey has a handful of favorite pitches that he knows how to use to irritate and even infuriate his opponents. Presented below are five of Josey's favorite pitches.

The Nolan Ryan - Used approximately 4 times per week, the Nolan Ryan is Josey's fastball that he locates well to spark conversations that are often cordial, though he'll occasionally bust a Nolan Ryan up-and-in to set up another pitch. The average number of comments that result from a Nolan Ryan reference is 12, though that number would be much lower if not for the many occasions when the Nolan Ryan is used in combination with a "Johnny Donuts/Boy Blunder" (see below).

The Galloway - Though used less frequently than the Nolan Ryan (~1.5 times per week), The Galloway averages the same number of responses (12 responses/mention) primarily because of its often shocking support of LSB's least favorite sports columnist. The Galloway is a lot like Padilla's lollipop curve - it comes in so slow and easy that hitters line up to take a whack at it. Unfortunately, the pitch creates a large number of pop-ups and foul balls that yield anger and frustration among the members of the opposing line-up.

The Bill James - The Bill James is Josey's highest velocity pitch, though he rarely throws it for strikes. Used mostly for show, Josey whips off a Bill James less than once per week with approximately 9 responses per mention. Beware the Bill James when Josey gets frustrated for he often uses the pitch to plunk an opponent immediately before leaving a game. A favorite Josey retort as he exits a thread - "On this argument, I feel very comfortable siding with Bill James over you."

The Great Game - Used approximately once per week with ~5 responses per mention, the Great Game is like a knuckleball that flutters on its way to the plate. Though occasionally a strike, the pitch is often well off the mark and only a problem for the worst hackers in the line-up.

The Johnny Donuts/Boy Blunder - Josey goes to the Donuts/Boy Blunder line approximately twice per week and gets a whopping 21 comments per mention. The pitch is Josey's version of the split finger which he never throws in the strike zone but none-the-less induces a large number of strikes. Nearly impossible to lay off, many an LSBer has taken a mighty hack only to find that the pitch has bounced before reaching the catcher.

The Killer Combo - The Nolan Ryan followed by the Johnny Donuts is almost guaranteed to bring aggravation to those who are compelled to take a swing. When you see Nolan Ryan in the title, keep a close eye for the Johnny Donuts in the follow-up text. This combination produced the 97 comment thread mentioned in the introductory paragraph and is typically good for a 30 comment discussion/debate.

Recommended Strategy When Facing Josey

Be patient and avoid over-swinging, otherwise you might find yourself looking like the Chris Davis of LSB. Lay off the Galloways, the Johnny Donuts, and the other junk that the crafty lefty likes to throw. If you can avoid swinging at these pitches, then Josey will be forced to throw the ball over the plate. And when The Outlaw brings the ball into the strike zone, his fringe-average stuff is as easy to hit as a little leaguer's fastball.

Breakout or Heartbreak?

spurdynasty — Tue, 05 May 2009 04:52:43 -0000

April is probably my favorite part of the baseball season because it is the month when one usually sees the most dramatic improvements in individual players. The first month of the season is often when you see whether the six months of work that a player put in during the off-season is paying off with improved performance. But distinguishing real improvements from hot starts can be tricky.

After the first month of the 2008 minor league season, Jose Vallejo had hit 333/379/500/879 in teh Cal League after posting an OPS of 578 in 2006 and 646 in 2007. One level down, Kennil Gomez had completed an equally impressive first month with a 3.06 FIP, 23 K's, and 2 BB's in 29.2 innings. Gomez' teammate, Ian Gac, was the most feared hitter in the MWL with a line of 395/485/802/1287. The highly touted Cristian Santana was also off to a very good start as an 18 yo in his first year of full season ball with a line of 274/349/466/815. On May 1, 2008, all four players looked to be among the twenty best prospects in the Rangers minor league system.

Vallejo was promoted to AA and finished the 2008 season with a 292/345/415/760 line, cementing a spot among the Rangers' Top20 prospects. If not for an injury, Gomez might have also received an in-season promotion and ended the year as one of the Ranger's minor league Top20. Gac was promoted to the Cal League where he was exposed as a non-prospect (257/311/449/760). Perhaps the most disappointing player in the Rangers' system in 2008, Santana finished as a 232/298/398/696 hitter.

In retrospect, Santana's obscene K-rate (32 strikeouts in 73 April AB's) and unsustainable BABIP (.447) were harbingers of the pain that he and his fans were going to experience. Gac's April 2008 numbers failed to reveal any areas of weakness, but his previous three seasons in the Rangers system (720 OPS in Clinton in 2005, 599 OPS in Clinton/Bakersfield in 2006, and a demotion to Spokane in 2007) suggested that April 2008 was merely a case of a veteran A-baller taking advantage of a bunch of 1st and 2nd year players.

Given the benefit of experience and the incredible statistical resources provided by Minor League Splits (www.minorleaguesplits.com), below are predictions of which Rangers fringe prospects are making their ways into the Rangers' Top 20 and which ones are simply setting us up for the coming heartbreak.

Breakouts

Manny Pina - Pina finished April 2008 as a 481/518/731/1249 hitter. Pina benefited from a .537 BABIP that is clearly unsustainable, though the high average appears to be the result of an obscenely high line drive rate (41%) that is more than two-fold higher than the Texas League average. Interestingly, Pina's line drive rate improved throughout his 2008 season (from 12% in April to 24% in August) which suggests that his ability to recognize and square up pitches is improving and perhaps he can maintain a LD% (and corresponding BABIP) that is above league average. Pina is also showing annual increases in extra base hits, with 12 in 2007, 21 in 2008, and 35 projected for 2009. Assuming Pina's BABIP drops to ~.325, he is likely to post a hitting line in the neighborhood of 300/350/450/800 as a 21 yr old in AA and add his name to the list of catchers that experts discuss when addressing Texas' catching depth.

Mitch Moreland - Though slightly less talented than in years past, the Cal League nonetheless features 8-10 legitimate hitting prospects. Among these prospects, only Buster Posey has better numbers than Moreland's 325/394/578/972. Like last year when he ranked among the Midwest League leaders in almost every major offensive category, Moreland is walking almost as often as he strikes out and getting extra base hits almost as often as he singles. When he is promoted to Frisco, expect Moreland's advanced hitting approach to translate well to the Texas League and allow him to experience the same successful transition to AA that Boggs, Duran, Borbon, Vallejo, Pina, Whittleman, and Tracy have enjoyed in recent years.

Mike Bianucci - Bianucci is to the SAL in 2009 as Gac was to the MWL in 2008. But unlike the former Lumberkings star, Bianucci's numbers this year (373/435/680/1115) are largely indistinguishable from his numbers last year (316/386/535/921). Assuming he is promoted to Bakersfield and continues to hit as he has done in the SAL, Bianucci should be the best hitter on the Blaze with a SAL to CAL translated line of 358/419/665/1084. Those would be outrageous numbers even for a 23 yo in High A.

Heartbreaks

Richard Bleier - Bleier's 1.14 ERA is second only to Wilfredo Boscan among Hickory's starting pitchers. In 23.2 IP this year, Bleier has GO/AO that is greater than 2 and a BB/9 that is less than 2. And then there are the two numbers that reveal Bleier as the heartbreaker that he is: 6.2 and 22. The former is Bleier's K/9 which is at least 3 less than it should be for a legitimate prospect, especially considering the fact that the second number is Bleier's age, which places him among the elder statesmen of the SAL. Bleier aspires to be Jared Hyatt, and while the two pitchers are probably a lot of fun to be around, neither is likely to be a guest of honor at a prospect party.

Jake Brigham - In 18 April innings, Brigham has struck out 18, walked 6, and given up 4 earned runs. Brigham's peripherals thus far in 2009 are in-line with his career numbers (~9 K/9, ~3BB/9, ~1.25 WHIP), thus it seems likely that he can at least maintain his early season success so long as he remains in Hickory. Because he is 21 years old, Brigham will likely be promoted to Bakersfield as soon as the Rangers are confident that his elbow is sound. Unfortunately, Blaze pitchers all share a room at the Heartbreak Hotel so you should expect Brigham's early season success on the east coast to be forgotten in a barrage of extra base hits and earned runs on the west coast. Hopefully by this time next year, Brigham (along with Main, Beavan, Gomez, and Murphy) will be experiencing the same career renaissance that Kasey Kiker is enjoying this year.

Michael Kirkman - In a rotation featuring four prospects (Michael Main, Blake Beavan, Tim Murphy, and Kennil Gomez), Kirkman is the one Bakersfield starter who has not faltered out of the gate. After walking nearly a batter per inning in a little less than 60 innings in 2006 and 2007, Kirkman's 21 yo season last year must have been a huge relief for the LHP as he dropped his walk rate to less than 3BB/9 and his WHIP from greater than 2.0 to less than 1.3. In 24 innings this year, Kirkman has struck out more than a hitter per inning while posting a 2.89 ERA. Unfortunately, Kirkman's walk-rate appears to be creeping up (>4BB/9) and his .148 BAA with runners in scoring position is more than 100 points lower than his BAA in all other situations. Although Kirkman's progress the last 1+ seasons is encouraging, his days with a sub-3.00 (or even sub-4.00) ERA are numbered. By the end of the season, you can expect the Rangers' minor league gurus to be discussing whether Kirkman might have the same type of bullpen success that Zach Phillips is enjoying this year.

Tim Smith - Smith has gotten better as he has advanced - 277/388/373/761 in Spokane/Clinton in 2007, 297/356/448/804 in Clinton in 2008, and 351/422/509/931 in Bakersfield thus far in 2009. Unfortunately, Smith's AVG and SLG in 2009 have benefited from a 429 BABIP despite a line drive rate that is below 10%. Unless he is able to increase his homerun rate (<4%) or decrease his strikeout rate (>20%), Smith's Bakersfield stats are likely to slip into the 290/360/440/800 range that is reserved for 23 yo non-prospects in the Cal League.

Early Season Prospecting

spurdynasty — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 14:13:21 -0000

Looking to get a jump on who the next great Rangers prospect might be? Checking the myriad minor league reports from Spring Training and the month-to-month statistical progressions of players in 2008 (and 2007 if available) are great ways to identify candidates to be this year's Derek Holland or Jose Vallejo. But equally telling is what the Rangers' minor league brain-trust thinks about a player. You can figure out what the team thinks based upon where they assign players at the beginning of the year and how aggressively players are promoted during the year. Prospects who are assigned or promoted to leagues where they will compete against much older players have an uncanny knack for becoming productive major leaguers. In fact, I argue that the single most telling statistic in predicting whether a minor league player will progress to the major leagues is Age Relative to League (ARL).

Anecdotal Support for the Value of ARL

You can use Baseball Reference to sort minor league players at any given level using any statistical measure that the site maintains. When you do that, you'll note that the most effective way to identify future major leaguers among the players in A+, AA, or AAA for almost any given year is to sort based upon age. Sorting A+ players in 2003 using various stats produces the following lists:

Top 5 Starting Pitchers

by Age by K/BB by K/9IP by WHIP by ERA

G Miller D Bush C Hamels C Young G Mata

Z Greinke C Young S Kazmir Z Greinke Z Greinke

E Santana G Bruso R Hannaman G Mata C Young

S Kazmir L DiNardo R Currier L Dinardo B Borner

C Hamels E Ulloa J Dominguez N Ungs M Peterson

Top 5 Position Players

by Age by OPS by BB/K by OBP by AVG

J Guzman C Shelton J Reed C Shelton J Weber

A Marte D Clark C Kotchman K Thompson C Shelton

D Navarro J Weber D Kelly J Reed G Jacobs

S Santos G Jacobs H Bledsoe C Kotchman C Kotchman

J Loney D McPherson K Thompson T Self J Kroeger

ARL becomes ridiculously effective when you use a performance stat or two to rank players who are young for their level in a given year. Take 2002 and 2003 as examples:

In 2002, the eight starting pitchers who logged at least 20 innings in A+, were 20 or less, struck out more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and had an ERA under 4 were Jeremy Bonderman, Travis Blackley, Adam Wainwright, Fernando Cabrera, Dustin Moseley, Rich Harden, Oliver Perez, and Francisco Cruceta. In 2003, thirteen pitchers exceeded the same thresholds (Greg Miller, Zach Greinke, Ervin Santana, Emiliano Fruto, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Ricky Nolasco, Renyel Pinto, Blake Hawksworth, and Michael Hinckley). More than 50% of these pitchers have pitched at the major league level and 33% have or appear likely to appear in an all-star game.

And the phenomenon is not restricted to pitchers. The list of 18-20 yo position players with at least 100 ABs of 800 OPS hitting in A+ in 2002 comprised Jose Lopez, Jose Reyes, James Loney, Grady Sizemore, Dave Krynzel, Will Smith, Corey Hart, and Rocco Baldelli. The 2003 list was Dioner Navarro, Andy Marte, Franklin Gutierrez, Shin-Soo Choo, Joe Mauer, Justin Huber, Josh Barfield, Josh Kroeger, Jeff Mathis, Jayson Nix, David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion, and Casey Kotchman. More than 75% of these players have accumulated significant playing time at the major league level and more than 33% have or appear destined to appear in an all-star game or two.

Minor League Progression as a Function of ARL

According to Baseball Reference, the average ages for players in 2008 in the leagues where Rangers prospects will be playing this year were:

Arizona Rookie League (ARL) - 20.1

Northwest League (NWL) - 21.2

South Atlantic League (SAL) - 21.7

California League (CAL) - 22.7

Texas League - 24.2

Pacific Coast League (PCL) - 26.9

Using the age cut-offs below allows you to identify the players who are among the youngest 10-15% in each of the indicated leagues.

A - 19 and under

A+ - 20 and under

AA - 21 and under

AAA - 22 and under

The majority of the players (~65%) for each level are typically found in the following age ranges:

A - 20-23

A+ - 21-24

AA - 22-26

AAA - 23-29

The remaining minor leaguers exceed the age ranges listed above and comprise the "old for league" group.

Using these cutoffs to classify players for any given league in any given year and then tracking the progress of the players reveals that the development rates for young players are dramatically accelerated relative to players who are age-appropriate or old for their leagues. As an example, I used the 3 year progress of the 1259 prospects and non-prospects who played in A or A+ in 2002. By 2004, approximately 30% of the players (209 pitchers and 180 hitters) had advanced at least two levels. By 2008, 10% of the 1259 players (74 hitters and 52 pitchers) had received more than a token number of innings or at bats at the major league level. As can be seen in the table below, the statistical profiles for the young players are dramatically different than the older players.

Pitchers

Young for League Age Appropriate Old for League

Total Players 85 354 195

% advancing 1 level/yr 71% 29% 23%

# w/50+ ML IP 34 14 4

Hitters

Young for League Age Appropriate Old for League

Total Players 84 359 179

% advancing 1 level/yr 60% 23% 21%

# w/100+ ML AB's 36 30 8

Young for their league players are almost three times as likely as other players to advance by at least one level per year and more than 10 times as likely to get to the major leagues. Although young for their league players accounted for only 13% of all of the players considered, they produced 56% of the players who are now playing in the majors. Incredibly, more than 40% of the players who were young for their league in 2002 have reached the majors and received significant playing time.

Worth noting is that the young-for-their-league players rarely ranked at the top of their respective leagues in major offensive or pitching categories. However, the young for their league players tended to improve statistically relative to their peers as they advanced through the minor leagues. Most striking was the observation that the young hitters who advanced at least one level per year had an average OPS improvement of 17 points per league. That doesn't sound like a lot until you realize that, according to MinorLeagueSplits (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html), an average minor league player who is not improving should experience an approximately 50-60 point drop in OPS for each level that he moves up. That means that the young prospects are improving their performance by ~70 OPS points per year. In contrast, age-appropriate and old hitters who advanced at least one level per year between 2002 and 2004 saw an average decrease of 10 OPS points for each level that they advanced which means that they are losing nearly 30 OPS points per year to their younger teammates. Assuming it takes a player four years to go from low A to the majors, young prospects, on average, see a nearly 300 point improvement in their OPS skills whereas the remaining players who similarly advance the four levels to the majors improve their OPS by less than 200 points. Worth noting is that these figures don't even account for the overwhelming majority of age appropriate players who stall out before reaching the major leagues

Why Should You Care?

The Rangers have recently assigned prospects to the various teams that comprise their minor league system. Those prospects who are young for the league to which they were assigned represent the guys worth monitoring in the coming year.

Oklahoma

Neftali Feliz (20) and Derek Holland (22) - If they remain healthy, both pitchers will contribute to future Ranger teams. In the meantime, both pitchers will spend time in the PCL where Feliz will be the youngest starting pitcher and Holland will be among the five youngest.

Key stat to track - K/BB ratio - The Top10 starting pitchers in 2008 averaged a K/BB ratio of 3.5 as AAA pitchers prior to making their ML debuts. Holland's K/BB ratio in 2008 was 4.0 so he appears to be poised to hit that threshold in his first go at AAA. Feliz will likely need to see an improvement in his walk rate from the 3.6 BB/9IP that he posted in 2008 to significantly improve his 2.9 K/BB.

Frisco

Kasey Kiker (21) and Omar Poveda (21) - Although it seems that they've been around forever, LHP Kiker and RHP Poveda are among the youngest pitchers in the Texas League. Kiker's year in Bakersfield (4.73 ERA, 8.2 K/9IP, 2.7 BB/9IP, .292 BAA) hurt his prospect status perhaps as much as anyone in the Rangers' system last year (Top 5 prospect before/Top 20 prospect after 2008 season). Poveda's numbers in Bakersfield (4.47 ERA, 9.7 K/9IP, 4 BB/9IP, .241 BAA) were only slightly better than Kiker's, but he was credited with developing a curveball during the season that nicely complements his low 90's fastball and plus change-up. Both pitchers received very favorable reviews for their work in Spring Training this year.

Key stat to track - ERA - Though ERA is often ridiculed as an archaic stat (I happen to disagree, but I'll save that for another FanPost), it is important for Poveda and Kiker to show that they have mastered the fine art of run prevention. The difference in average ERA between the Cal League and Texas League is not as big as you would think (4.51 vs 4.36 in 2008), so a sub-4 ERA from either prospect would indicate a significant improvement in performance.

Marcus Lemon (20) - Lost among the Rangers many prospects, Lemon was among the most productive middle-infielders in the minors until a dismal August turned a great season (315/410/460/870) into a very good one (298/376/437/813). In fact, among the seven middle infield prospects ranked among BA's Top 100 in 2009, Lemon trailed only Jason Donald (888 OPS as a 23 yo in AA) as a hitter in 2008. Lemon will apparently remain at SS for his age 20 season in Frisco where he will be among the youngest position players in AA.

Key stat to track - OPS - The biggest jump in the minors (A+ to AA) has been handled with style by many of the recent Rangers hitting prospects (Borbon, Vallejo, Boggs, Davis, Ramirez, and Duran to name a few). Given his mature approach at the plate and his developing gap power, expect Lemon to come through with a 750-800 OPS in 2009 and make it increasingly difficult to ignore him as a legitimate prospect.

Manny Pina (21) - Defensively gifted catcher showed improvement with the bat in 2008, (267/317/360/677), but opposing pitchers no doubt continue to view his spot in the line-up as a reprieve.

Key stat to track - OBP - An IsoP of less than 100 suggests that Pina is unlikely to develop power. Because he is a good contact hitter, it seems possible that Pina could take more pitches without significantly increasing his K-rate and decreasing his batting average. If taking more pitches increased Pina's walk-rate, then a corresponding increase in OBP to something along the lines of .350 could help cement Pina's standing as "the future backup catcher for the Rangers."

Bakersfield

Blake Beavan (20) and Michael Main (20) - The two RH power pitchers had somewhat disappointing seasons in 2008. Although his ERA (2.37), walk-rate (1.5 BB/9IP), BAA (.234), and K/BB (3.65) were outstanding for a 19 yo debuting in a full season league, Beavan's K-rate (5.4 K/9IP) didn't come close to what you expect from a top pitching prospect. Main lost time due to a rib injury that limited him to 58.2 IP. If Beavan and Main can survive the pitcher killer that is Bakersfield and the Cal League, then look for the two pitchers to be viewed as the next saviors for the pitching starved Rangers.

Key stats to track - K-rate (Beavan) and K/BB (Main) - Reports indicate that Beavan needs to improve his slider and change-up. If successful, Beavan should see an increase in strikeouts. If he can push his k-rate above the 1K/IP that most prospectors seek, then look for Beavan's name to begin appearing in discussions of top pitching prospects. Unlike Beavan, Main's stuff has never been questioned. Better control would allow Main to improve the one statistic that has been borderline thus far in his minor league career (career 3.4 BB/9IP) and force opposing hitters to hit his apparently lethal three pitch repertoire.

Engel Beltre (19) - Assigned to Bakersfield after spending his 18 yo season as the youngest starting position player in the Midwest League, Beltre received rave reviews during Spring Training. Despite leading the MWL in hits, his 2008 stat-line (283/308/403/711) was interesting only in regard to revealing his weaknesses and showing that he can be a productive player despite them.

Key stat to track - Walk rate - My favorite comp for Beltre is Ruben Mateo, not so much because I believe it, but because it allows me to understand what people might see when they watch Beltre play. Mateo put up a 260/309/401/710 line as an 18 yo in A-ball that is reminiscent of Beltre's season in 2008. Mateo put up a 314/359/509/868 as a 19 yo in High A that launched his life as a prospect. If Beltre can learn to walk, then perhaps he will explode just like Mateo did in 1997.

Jose Felix (20) - In his US debut last year in the MWL, the RH catcher got off to a hot start at the plate and then settled in for a solid, though unspectacular line of 262/300/305/605. Felix isn't at the same level as Ramirez, Teagarden, and Saltalamacchia, but he joins Pina, de los Santos, and Telis to provide the Rangers with a second tier of catching prospects that is equal to many team's first tier.

Key stat to track - SLG - In 302 AB's in 2008, Felix had 10 doubles and 1 HR. Until he shows some ability to hit for power, it is unlikely that he will progress much further in the system. Fortunately, Felix has gone from an extreme pitcher's league to an extreme hitter's league, so this could be a great opportunity for him to show a bit of pop.

Hickory

Martin Perez (18) - Perez' standing as a prospect derives more from scouting reports and his ability to compete against much older competitors than from the stat line that he posted as the youngest starter in the NWL in 2008 (3.65 ERA, 7.7 K/9IP, 4.1 BB/9IP, .274 BAA). ST 2009 was filled with stories of Perez' exploits, so expect big things from the diminutive lefty as he pitches as one of the youngest starters in the SAL.

Key stat to track - K/BB ratio - Young pitchers tend to maintain or even improve their K-rates as they advance from one level to the next, so it would not be a surprise if Perez pushed his k-rate into the 9K/9IP range. Improved control would go a long way toward bringing Perez into the 3 K/BB that you like to see in a starting pitching prospect.

Wilmer Font (18) - Scouting reports from Spring Training indicate that the big RHP has improved his breaking ball and change-up. If he can control these along with his mid- to high-90's fastball, then look for Font to post crazy numbers in Hickory and ascend prospect rankings in a way that is reminiscent of Feliz in 2008.

Key stat to track - IP - Although he remains very young for his league, it is important for Font to begin piling up competitive innings so that he can learn what works and what he needs to improve. If Font can pitch 60-80 innings in 2009, then he will be set up for ~100 innings in Bakersfield/Frisco as a 20 yo in 2010 and in the picture for big league innings in 2011 or 2012.

Joseph Ortiz (18) - The second youngest member of the Crawdads, the LHP features a 90-92 MPH fastball and a very good slider. Pitching out of the bullpen for Clinton in 2008, Ortiz posted a 1.97 ERA, 7 K/9IP, 4.5 BB/9IP, and a .204 BAA in 32 innings spanning 23 games.

Key stat to track - K/9IP - Ortiz was ridiculously young for full season baseball last year. He is among the youngest players in the SAL again this year. Repeating the level means that he will need to improve his performance or risk becoming even more lost in the Rangers prospect shuffle. Moving his k-rate to above 1 hitter per inning would certainly strengthen Ortiz' chances of being in the discussion of intriguing left-handed pitchers in the Rangers' system.

Wilfredo Boscan (19) - Although a year older than Perez, Boscan's assignment to Hickory will have him competing against players who will on average be 4 years older than him. Boscan's stats in 2008 were spectacularly balanced (3.12 ERA, 9 K/9IP, 1.3 BB/9IP, 1.5 GO/FO). Noteworthy among the many stories in Spring Training was that Boscan's fastball was touching 93 MPH. That is reminiscent of ST reports in 2008 that indicated that Derek Holland had experienced a slight uptick in velocity after posting an impressively balanced stat line in the NWL in 2007.

Key stat to track - BAA - The lone blemish on Boscan's 2008 stat line was BAA (.251). A BAA of .225 would likely indicate that Boscan's stuff was improving and would go a long way to preparing him for time in Bakersfield.

Carlos Pimental (19) - Another teenager in the Hickory starting rotation, the RHP comes off a successful NWL season (65 IP, 3.31 ERA, 7.4 K/9IP, 4.3 BB/9IP, .204 BAA). In their discussion of the Top20 NWL prospects after last season, BA mentioned that several scouts were very excited by Pimental's potential. Improved control and command of his low-90's fastball would go a long way toward cementing Pimental's prospect status.

Key stat to track - K/9IP - Pimental's K-rate in 2008 fell dramatically from the 12.5 K/9IP that he enjoyed in the ARL in 2007. If Pimental can re-discover his strike-out pitch, then he will get more mentions when prospect gurus run down the list of interesting Rangers prospects.

Clark Murphy (19) - The left-handed 1st baseman hit 358/435/526/962 in 95 Arizona Rookie League at bats after signing last year. Murphy's k-rate (18%), walk-rate (11%), and XBH rate (11%) were all very impressive for a high school slugger in his first year. Murphy could prove to be the Crawdads' best hitter in 2009.

Key stat to track - OPS. It can't be easy to be a 1B in a system where your OPS will likely be compared to what is being posted by Davis, Smoak, and Moreland. Even worse is being in a league with an average OPS (706) that was almost fifty points lower in 2008 than the leagues where the other prospects are playing (CAL: 752 OPS, TL: 754 OPS). Although it came in a small sample size, Murphy's impressive first year OPS did happen in a league with an average OPS that was close to that of SAL (721 vs 706).

Leonel de los Santos (19) - The smallish (170 lbs) catcher gets raves for his defense. His work with the bat in the Arizona Rookie League was uninspiring (258/299/358/657), though his contact rate was solid (22 SO in 168 plate appearances). Santos' profile is reminiscent of Manny Pina.

Key stat to track - OBP. Strong defensive catchers who can make a contribution on offense are extremely valuable. Given his relatively small size, it seems unlikely that de los Santos will develop into a power hitter. An OBP above .350 would go a long way toward making the catcher an asset in the bottom third of a line-up and more than an after-thought when baseball experts talk about the Rangers' depth at catcher.

A Promotion will Make These Players Young for Their League

Matt West (20)

Fabio Castillo (20)

Kennil Gomez (21)

Tommy Hunter (22)

Justin Smoak (22)

Jose Vallejo (22)

John Whittleman (22)

Ranger Roster Crystal-Ballin'

spurdynasty — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 14:00:47 -0000

The Rangers window of contention is expected to open in 2010 and should last at least five years assuming there are not widespread problems with player health and/or development. Curious about what the Rangers’ rosters might look like during that span, I built a spreadsheet using player salaries and service times from http://rangers.scottlucas.com (Thanks, Scott) and player ages from http://minormoosings.blogspot.com (Thanks, Goyogringo).

The following assumptions were used to project the Rangers’ future rosters:
(1) Pre-arb salaries were estimated to be $500k.
(2) Arbitration year salaries were estimated based on players’ expected ML production (e.g., Davis/Feliz/Holland received $3M, $5M, and $10M; Teagarden/D Murphy/Kiker received $1.5M, $2.5M, and $4M).
(3) Prospects were expected to advance one level per year and make their major league debuts in the year after they first appeared in AAA.
(4) The starting rotation included 8-12 starters for each season to account for attrition.
(5) Hamilton, Wilson, and Francisco were signed to contracts that extended one year beyond their arbitration years.
(6) No player trades or free agent acquisitions were predicted

Shown below are projected rosters for the 2010, 2012, and 2014 seasons. The ages listed for the players are as of opening day for the indicated year. The benches in 2010 and 2012 have one extra player since I could not decide whether to use Boggs or Murphy as the 4th outfielder. The bullpens have eight pitchers instead of seven to provide some sense of who the first call-up might be.

Line-up 2010                           Line-up 2012                              Line-up 2014
Player   Pos   Age   Sal (M)   Player    Pos   Age   Sal (M)    Player   Pos     Age   Sal (M)
Davis  1B/DH   24      $0.5      Davis    1B/DH 26      $3.0       Davis    1B/DH 28    $10
Smoak   1B      22      $0.5      Smoak     1B     24      $0.5       Smoak     1B     26    $7
Kinsler   2B      27      $4.0      Kinsler     2B     29      $7.0       Lemon     2B     25    $1.5
Young    3B      33      $11       Young       3B     35      $12        Duran       3B     29    $2.5
Andrus   SS     21      $0.5      Andrus      SS     23     $2.0        Andrus     SS     25   $7.0
Salt…      C      24      $0.5       Salt…        C      26      $4.0        Tea           C     30   $4.0
Borbon   OF     24      $0.5      Borbon     OF     26      $0.5        Beltre       OF     24   $0.5
Cruz        OF     29      $0.5      Cruz          OF     31      $4.0        Boggs      OF    31    $4.0
Hamilton OF   28      $6.0       Hamilton OF    30      $9.0       Borbon     OF    28 $4.0

Bench  2010                            Bench  2012                              Bench 2014
Tea          C      26     $0.5        Tea            C       28     $1.5       Pina          C      26     $1.5
Ramirez C/DH 25    $0.5        Ramirez C/DH 27     $0.5       Ramirez C/DH 29     $2.5
Boggs     OF    27     $0.5        Boggs      OF     29     $1.5       Golson     OF     28    $2.0
Murphy    OF    28     $0.5        Murphy     OF     30     $2.5       Vallejo     UIF     27   $2.0
Duran     UIF    25     $0.5        Vallejo     UIF     25    $0.5

Rotation   2010                       Rotation 2012                             Rotation 2014
Mill/Pad   #1 35/32 $12         Holland    #1      25     $0.5        Feliz         #1      25   $5.0
McCarthy #2    26     $2.5       Feliz          #2       23    $0.5        Holland #2      27     $5.0
Harrison #3    24    $0.5      Harrison #3       26    $1.5        Main        #3      25    $3.0
Holland   #4     23     $0.5       Hurley      #4       26    $1.5        Harrison #4      28    $4.0
Feldman #5    27     $1.0       Feldman #5       29    $3.0         Perez       #5      23    $0.5
Feliz         #6    21     $0.5       Main         #6       23    $0.5         Hurley     #6       28   $3.0
Hurley       #7    24   $0.5      Diamond #7       29    $0.5         Beavan    #7      25   $0.5
Diamond #8    27    $0.5       Poveda    #8       24    $0.5         Poveda    #8      26   $1.5
                                                   Beavan    #9       23     $0.5         Boscan   #9      24   $0.5
                                                   Boscan   #10     22    debut        Font       #10    23    $0.5
                                                                                                           Ramirez #11    24    $0.5
                                                                                                           Ross      #12    24    $0.5

Bullpen  2010                         Bullpen 2012                                Bullpen 2014
Francisco Cl    30   $4.0        Francisco Cl     32     $7.0          Madrigal   Cl      30   $4.0
Wilson      LH   29   $3.0        Hunter      RH    25     $0.5          Diamond RH    31   $2.5
Eyre           RH 31   $1.0        Kiker         LH    24      $0.5          Hunter      RH    27   $2.5
Hunter      RH   23   $0.5        Madrigal RH    28     $1.5           Kiker         LH    26   $1.5
Madrigal   RH   26   $0.5        Moscoso RH    28     $0.5          Moscoso   RH   30   $2.5
Moscoso   RH 26   $0.5        Nippert     RH   31     $2.0          Murphy T    LH    26   $1.5
Nippert      RH 29   $0.5        Strop         RP    26    $0.5          Strop           RH   28   $2.5
Rupe         RH 26   $1.5        Wilson      LH    31    $5.0           Young         LH   27   $1.5

Other Roster Candidates    Other Roster Candidates         Other Roster Candidates
Golson     OF   24   $0.5        Moreland 1B    26    $0.5            Moreland   1B   28    $0.5
Arias         UIF 25   $0.5        Pina            C    24     $0.5            Murphy C   1B   24    $0.5
Vallejo      UIF 23   $0.5        Beltre         OF   22   debut           Bannister   RP 30    $1.5
Bannister RP  26   $0.5        Golson       OF   26    $1.5            Garr             RP 30    $1.5
Gabbard RP   28   $0.5        Arias           UIF 27    $1.5            Jones         RP 27    $1.5
Garr          RP   26 debut       Duran        UIF   27    $1.5            Mendoza    RP 30   $4.0
Jones       RP 23 debut        Lemon      UIF   23    $0.5           Wieland     SP   24   $0.5
Kiker         RP 22   debut       Bannister RP   28    $0.5
Mendoza RP 26   $0.5         Eyre           RP   33    $2.0
Moscoso RP 26    $0.5        Gabbard    RP   30    $2.5
Murphy T RP 22 debut        Garr            RP   28    $0.5
Strop         RP 24   $0.5         Jones        RP   25    $0.5
Young       RP 23 debut        Mendoza    RP   28    $1.5
Main          SP   21 debut        Rupe          RP    28    $2.0
Poveda     SP 22 debut        Young       RP    25    $0.5

Avg Age - 25 man roster
2010 – 26
2011 – 26.1
2012 – 27
2013 – 26.8
2014 – 26.8

Total Projected Salary - 25 man roster
2010 – $54 M
2011 - $56.5 M
2012 - $72 M
2013 - $96 M
2014 - $88 M

2010
The addition of Borbon in centerfield and Smoak at 1B yields a line-up that is projected to remain the same until 2013. Exercising the option of either Millwood or Padilla provides a veteran starter, but the rotation looks to be a weak spot with only eight pitchers projected to be ready for major league duty. Adding a pitcher like Sheets on a one or two year deal would be for the best and there is room in the budget with a projected total salary of $54M. The additions of Moscoso and Hunter and the continuing maturation of Madrigal, Rupe, Wilson, and Francisco could make the bullpen a strength.

2011
This looks to be the first of a three-year run where the Rangers could be among teh most talented teams in baseball. The line-up should be excellent with Hamilton, Davis, Smoak, Cruz, and potentially Ramirez anchoring the 3-7 slots and Kinsler setting the table. Unless a veteran is added to the rotation, the starters will be very young with McCarthy, Feldman, and Diamond being the elder statesmen at the age of 28. Holland and Feliz might be ready to lead the starters. The bullpen should be a strength with Kiker and Strop stepping into prominent roles and Francisco, Wilson, and Madrigal handling the 8th and 9th innings. McCarthy will be in his final year and potentially available in trade. An outfielder or two (Boggs, Murphy, Cruz, Golson) and a catcher (with Pina ready to step in as the backup) could be used in a deal to bring in a key player for a playoff run.

2012
The line-up should be extremely potent with everyone except Young either in or entering their prime. Main and/or Beavan might be ready to join a rotation that could be anchored by Holland, Feliz, and Harrison. With Madrigal, Strop, and Kiker ready to handle late-inning duties and Garr, Jones, and Young ready for the major leagues, Wilson and Francisco, who will both be in the final years of their contracts, might be traded to bring in prospects to re-stock the farm.

2013
With Hamilton, Kinsler, Saltalamacchia, Cruz, and Young in the final years of their contracts, this could be the end of an era in Rangers baseball. Player salaries will approach $100M. Davis, Smoak, Saltalamacchia, Borbon, Andrus, and Ramirez will all be in their mid- to late-20’s. If all goes well, Beltre should be ready to impact the major league team. The rotation should be nearing its apex with Holland, Feliz, Main, Perez, and Harrison in the starting 5 and other talented arms ready to plug in if needed. Francisco and Wilson will have departed but the bullpen will remain a talented group with Madrigal or Strop likely ready to close. Hamilton, Cruz, Saltalamacchia, and Kinsler could either anchor another playoff run or be traded in the final years of their contracts to bring in young talent that could extend the Rangers window of playoff contention.

2014
The line-up will change dramatically with Lemon, Duran, Teagarden, and Beltre taking over for Kinsler, Young, Saltalamacchia, and Hamilton. Player salaries will drop back below $90M providing enough roster flexibility to bring in a big-name free agent or trade acquisition to bolster the line-up if needed. Pitching should be the team’s strength with Feliz, Holland, Main, Perez, Beavan, Harrison, Hurley, Boscan, Font, and Ramirez all aged 23-28 and Madrigal, Hunter, Kiker, Moscoso, Murphy, Strop, Young, and Diamond forming a talented and experienced bullpen.

2009 Minor League Stats Worth Tracking

spurdynasty — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 13:32:03 -0000

A number of Rangers prospects who are expected to start the season in AA or AAA have a chance to impact the major league club in 2009. If injuries, ineffectiveness, or trades at the big league level do not force the Rangers to promote a prospect, then adding a minor league player to the big club will likely only happen if the Rangers believe he will improve the performance of the major league team.

Determining when a prospect is ready for a big league promotion is best accomplished by a combination of scouting and statistics. Scouts and coaches (or Jason Parks and Zywica) can determine if a player has made adequate progress with his change-up or outfield defense or pitch recognition or whatever was deemed critical for the player’s development. Statistics indicate whether a player’s skills are being efficiently converted to production. One tool that is available for fans to track whether a prospect might be ready for the majors is major league equivalents (MLE).

The MLE concept was first described by Bill James in the mid-80’s and posits that there is a strong correlation between major and minor league stats. During the past 20+ years, James and others have developed algorithms that convert minor league stats to major league stats and vice versa. MLEs have proven to be almost as predictive of future major league performance as a major league player’s prior year stats. A variety of web-sites provide custom tools for converting minor league numbers to major league numbers and vice-versa. If you are interested, Dan Szymborski provides one of the more straightforward descriptions of how to calculate MLEs at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/scholars/czerny/articles/calculatingMLEs.htm.

Rangers prospects who might emerge as at least major league average players in 2009 are presented below. Two things worth noting:
(1) There will likely be specific things that each of these players are working on that will keep them from posting optimal minor league numbers (e.g., Feliz will likely limit the use of his fastball in 2009 to develop his off-speed pitches). This will effectively suppress the prospect’s stats.
(2) Prospects are often promoted to provide them with major league experience so that they are better prepared to contribute in future years. If that is the case for the 2009 Rangers, then it is likely that one or more players will be promoted before they can be expected to perform as a league average player (e.g. Elvis Andrus).

Presented below are the average performances of American League players by position in 2008 according to http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?lg=AL&team=TOT&year=2008. I used the MLE calculator at http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html to convert the ML average hitting numbers to AA and AAA equivalents. There is not a good calculator for major league equivalents for minor league pitchers so I reverse-engineered the calculator used by Minor League Splits (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com) to convert the American League average starter and reliever numbers to AA and AAA equivalents. Minor League Splits was the source of the career statistics that are listed after the name of each Rangers prospect. Minor League Splits is also the source of the 2008 stats and MLEs that are provided for some of the players listed below.

The combination of major league averages, MLE’s, and minor league numbers for the various prospects are used to provide some sense of what statistical weaknesses individual players can improve to enhance their chances of becoming league average or better players.

Starting Pitchers
Major League Average – 1.39 WHIP, 6 K/9IP, 3 BB/9IP, 1 HR/9IP
AAA Equivalent – 1.25 WHIP, 6.7 K/9IP, 2.3 BB/9IP, 0.7 HR/9IP
AA Equivalent – 1.25 WHIP, 7.5 K/9IP, 2.2 BB/9IP, 0.8 HR/9IP

Near-Ready Rangers Prospects
Tommy Hunter – 1.18 WHIP, 5.8 K/9IP, 1.7 BB/9IP, 0.8 HR/9IP (career minor league averages)
Hunter’s first exposure to major league hitters wasn’t pleasant, but his early AAA numbers suggest that he is close to being ready for the majors.   Hunter’s 50+ AAA innings in 2008 translated to an MLE of 1.22 WHIP, 4.2 K/9IP, 1.8 BB/9IP, and 1.5 HR/9IP. If he can decrease the homeruns and increase his strikeout rate, then Hunter should be ready to provide the Rangers with a league average pitcher.

Derek Holland – 1.03 WHIP, 9.7 K/9IP, 2.5 BB/9IP, 0.4 HR/9IP
Holland’s minor league numbers indicate that he is on-track to be an above average major league starter. If Holland can hit his career numbers while pitching in AA or AAA this year, then he would project to post numbers akin to the 2008 version of James Shields (~3.5 ERA, ~1.15 WHIP, ~8 K/9IP, ~3 BB/9IP).

Neftali Feliz – 1.13 WHIP, 11.2 K/9IP, 4 BB/9IP, 0.2 HR/9IP
In 45 AA innings in 2008, Feliz’ MLE consisted of a 3.16 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 9.3 K/9IP, 4.6 BB/9IP, and 0.2 HR/9IP. Except for the walks, those translated stats suggest that Feliz is ready for a spot in a major league rotation. If Feliz can add a second plus offering to his repertoire while continuing to dominate AA hitters, then he will be ready for a starting role in the major leagues by 2010 at the latest.

Thomas Diamond – 1.35 WHIP, 9.5 K/9IP, 4.8 BB/9IP, 0.74 HR/9IP
Diamond’s career numbers, which are admittedly buoyed by his first two years in the minors, suggest that he is on-track to carve out a major league career. The stat to watch in 2009 will be walks – if Diamond can drop his walk-rate to below 3 per 9 innings, then he has a legitimate shot to become at least an average major league pitcher.

Relief Pitchers
Major League Average – 1.39 WHIP, 7.5 K/9IP, 3.9 BB/9IP, 0.9 HR/9IP
AAA Equivalent – 1.25 WHIP, 8.3 K/9IP, 3 BB/9IP, 0.6 HR/9IP
AA Equivalent – 1.25 WHIP, 9.4 K/9IP, 2.8 BB/9IP, 0.7 HR/9IP

Near-Ready Rangers Prospects
Pedro Strop – 1.23 WHIP, 11.7 K/9IP, 4.1 BB/9IP, 0.8 HR/9IP (career minor league averages)
Strop’s career walk-rate is high but the rest of his career numbers suggest that he can be an average to above average relief pitcher. If he can remain healthy and drop his walk rate to ~3 per 9 innings, look for Strop to spend time in the Rangers bullpen in 2009.

Guillermo Moscoso – 1.08 WHIP, 9.5 K/9IP, 1.9 BB/9IP, 0.7 HR/9IP
Moscoso’s stats scream above-average starter. His repertoire and age relative to league suggest bullpen. If Moscoso can remain healthy and post the same stats as a reliever in AA or AAA that he’s accumulated as a starter in the lower minors, then look for him to become an above average major league reliever in 2009 or 2010.

Beau Jones – 1.42 WHIP, 8.5 K/9IP, 5.0 BB/9IP, 0.5 HR/9IP
Jones’ career numbers include time as both a starter and reliever. His 2008 numbers, which came primarily as a reliever, included a lower WHIP (1.30) and slightly lower walk-rate (4.3 BB/9IP). If he can continue to push those two stat lines down in 2009, then it is likely that Jones will be challenging for a spot in the Rangers’ pen in 2010.

Brennan Garr – 1.36 WHIP, 10.2 K/9IP, 4.8 BB/9IP, 0.4 HR/9IP
Garr’s walk rate is the difference between being a candidate for the major league pen and being an after-thought in AA or AAA. As with many of the pitchers on this list, Garr needs to improve his control in 2009 without sacrificing strikeouts or homeruns.

Center Fielders
Major League Average – 269/334/412/746; 27 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 57 BB, 121 K
AAA Equivalent – 323/398/514/912; 39 2B, 7 3B, 21 HR, 77 BB, 112 K
AA Equivalent – 341/421/545/966; 39 2B, 7 3B, 23 HR, 84 BB, 110 K

Near Ready Rangers Prospects
Julio Borbon – 321/363/425/788; 32 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 29 BB, 62 K (2008 minor league averages)
Borbon’s numbers in Frisco (336/380/457/837 in 256 at bats) translate to an MLE of 272/307/352/659. The MLE batting average would have placed Borbon as above average but the 307 OBP would have been almost 30 points below average in 2008. If Borbon can improve his walk rate by 3-5% in 2009 while maintaining the high BA, look for him to be patrolling centerfield at RBiA by September.

Greg Golson – 265/310/411/721 (career); 286/337/440/777; 27 2B, 6 3B, 19 HR, 51 BB, 192 K (’08 est for 700 PA)
Golson’s 2008 OPS in 420 AA ABs was the highest of his career. His walk-rate and power numbers don’t jump off the page, but they do suggest that he could be an average major leaguer. As has been noted by others, Golson’s statistical flaw is his strike-out rate. Assuming Golson maintains his career .350 BABIP, he could hit .310 and put himself on the prospect map in 2009 by simply reducing his strike-out rate to 20%.

Middle Infielders
Major League Average (SS and 2nd base) – 274/329/393/722; 32 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR,
AAA Equivalent – 325/389/473/862; 42 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 64 BB, 87 K
AA Equivalent – 346/414/503/917; 43 2B, 4 3B, 14 HR, 70 BB, 85 K

Near-Ready Rangers Prospects
Joaquin Arias – 293/319/401/720 (career minor league averages)
    ’08 est for 700 PA – 296/329/421/750; 22 2B, 13 3B, 10 HR, 30 BB, 79 K
Arias is a .290-.300 hitter with a good glove and not much else. His slugging and OBP will likely keep him from being more than a bottom third starting SS or average utility infielder. Assuming he begins the year in AAA, a sudden spike in his walk-rate could indicate that Arias is finally ready to become a major league shortstop.

Jose Vallejo – 292/345/425/760; 29 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 41 BB, 91 K (2008 averages)
Vallejo could take another big step up the prospect ladder if he proves that he can play shortstop and he increases his BA to over 310 without sacrificing his walk rate or power. If successful, the resulting 310/365/450/815 line would look like what you would expect from an average major league shortstop playing in Frisco or Oklahoma.

Catchers
Major League Average – 258/322/393/715; 28 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR
AAA Equivalent – 306/379/484/863; 39 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 67 BB, 108 K
AA Equivalent – 327/403/517/920; 39 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 72 BB, 106 K

Near-Ready Rangers Prospect
Max Ramirez – 317/424/521/945 (career minor league averages)
’08 est for 600 PA – 347/439/628/1067; 38 2B, 4 3B, 38 HR, 84 BB, 138 K
Ramirez’ MLE in 2008 (269/339/442/781) would have placed him third in hitting among AL catchers with at least 300 ABs. If he can catch, Ramirez will likely be one of the best hitting catchers in the majors.

Corner Outfielders
Major League Average – 275/344/445/789; 32 2B, 4 3B, 20 HR
AAA Equivalent – 328/409/555/964; 42 2B, 5 3B, 28 HR, 112 K, 83 BB
AA Equivalent – 350/435/594/1029; 43 2B, 6 3B, 30 HR, 110 K, 90 BB

Near-Ready Rangers Prospect
Brandon Boggs – 257/362/463/825 (career minor league averages)
In 68 AAA at bats, Boggs’ 309/368/456/824 batting line was solid though probably not yet major league worthy. As expected, his time in the major leagues was solid but unspectacular. If Boggs is relegated to AAA in 2009, look for an improved slugging percentage to precede a mid-season call-up.

Corner Infielders
Major League Average – 267/341/438/780; 30 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR
AAA Equivalent – 320/409/545/954; 41 2B, 3 3B, 28 HR, 87 BB, 110 K
AA Equivalent – 342/435/585/1020; 42 2B, 3 3B, 30 HR, 94 BB, 108 K

Near-Ready Rangers Prospect
Justin Smoak
Smoak’s minor league resume is too sparse to predict what he should improve prior to a promotion to the big leagues. Assuming he begins the year in Frisco, an OPS above 1000 would suggest that his time as a prospect will be short-lived.

Bill James projects the 2009 Rangers

spurdynasty — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 07:00:35 -0000

Thanks to FanGraphs, I was able to piece together Bill James' projections for the 2009 Rangers.

Line-up                    Avg / OBP / SLG / OPS
Kinsler                      291 / 360 / 482 / 842
Young                       297 / 349 / 427 / 776
Hamilton                  310 / 384 / 556 / 940
Cruz                          278 / 352 / 533 / 885
Davis                        302 / 352 / 599 / 951
Byrd                          283 / 351 / 425 / 776
Blalock                     282 / 346 / 476 / 822
Teagarden              239 / 317 / 455 / 772
Laird                        263 / 318 / 396 / 714
Salta…                    262 / 349 / 424 / 773
Ramirez                  308 / 390 / 548 / 938
Murphy                    277 / 336 / 450 / 786
Duran                      269 / 315 / 433 / 748
Boggs                     253 / 359 / 452 / 811
Arias                       280 / 308 / 390 / 698
Bradley                   287 / 391 / 489 / 879
Check out the projections for Cruz, Davis, and Ramirez. Wow! Teagarden OPSing 772 as a rookie would make me very happy.

Rotation               GS / IP / ERA
Millwood               27 / 171 / 4.40
Padilla                  26 / 151 / 4.72
Feldman              25 / 153 / 4.64
McCarthy              23 / 121 / 4.26
Gabbard               26 / 137 / 4.82
Nippert                 12 / 96 / 4.97
Sorry, no projections for Hurley or Harrison
There must be something wrong here. Surely, James can't believe that the Rangers will have six starters with sub-5.00 ERAs!

Bullpen         G / IP / ERA
Francisco    57 / 61 / 3.55
Benoit          36 / 37 / 4.13
Wilson         52 / 48 / 4.49
Rupe           48 / 90 / 5.44
Loe              20 / 46 / 5.24
Sorry, no projections for Madrigal.
James doesn’t think much of the Rangers’ bullpen. Based on his recent comments regarding his priorities for the offseason, I must assume that JD is using the same metrics as Bill James to project the Rangers' relievers in 2009.

Graduation Rates and ML Performances of Top-Ranked Prospects

spurdynasty — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 21:37:56 -0000

If you prefer FanPosts that are short and relatively uncomplicated, I would recommend that you proceed no further with this one. If you like long posts with data tables and no clear conclusions, then feel free to spend the next ten minutes of your life trying to wade through what follows.

The Rangers had five players on BA’s 2008 list of baseball’s Top 100 prospects and will likely have 6-8 prospects on the 2009 list. Those who like to dismiss the importance of the minor leagues often use anecdotal evidence to suggest that outstanding prospects often fail to become productive major league players. To understand if there is truth behind the anecdotes, I evaluated the major league performances of players who were ranked by BA to be among the Top100 prospects in baseball prior to the 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons. I used ERA+ to evaluate the annual performances of the pitchers and OPS+ to evaluate the annual contributions of the hitters in years in which they accumulated at least 40 IP or 100 ABs at the major league level.

As will be described below, the data were compiled and evaluated in a variety of ways to estimate the success/failure rates for top prospects, how quickly the prospects begin to perform at above average levels, how prospects at different positions perform, and how rankings correlate with major league performance.

Two things worth noting before presenting the results are that:

(1) the data for players who were ranked multiple times between 2003 and 2007 were only used once in the analysis. I used the highest ranking that the player achieved to bin his data.
(2) youthful prospects who are still progressing through the minor leagues and have thus far failed to play in the major leagues were not used in the analysis.

Success/Failure Rate
259 players from the five Top100 lists that were used for this analysis have either failed to progress through the minor leagues or have had at least one major league season with 40 IP or 100 ABs. 30 of the 259 players debuted in 2007 or 2008 and averaged an OPS+/ERA+ of less than 90 in the ML season(s) that they qualified. Examples from this list of 30 players include Justin Upton, Phil Hughes, Eric Hurley, Homer Bailey, Luke Hochevar, Clay Buchholz, and Jonathan Sanchez.   In my opinion, it is still too early to determine if any or all of these players will become productive major league players, so I eliminated them from the calculations described below. The remaining 229 players were used to estimate the success/failure rates for the prospects ranked in 2003-2007.

38 of the prospects (17% of the 229 considered) have failed to advance to the major leagues and are either out of baseball or struggling in the minor leagues. Another 8% of the 229 players have received playing time in at least three major league seasons and have an average ERA+ or OPS+ below 90. The remaining 75% of the 229 prospects considered have averaged an ERA+/OPS+ of at least 90 in their major league seasons. 133 players (almost 60% of the 229) have averaged an ERA+/OPS+ of more than 100 in the 1-5 major league seasons that they’ve had at least 100 AB’s or 40 IP. Based on ERA+/OPS+, 3 out of 4 highly ranked prospects graduate to the major leagues as productive players and 3 out of 5 perform at above average levels beginning with their 1st or 2nd year seasons.

                       # of Prospects        % of Total
Failed to advance to ML                                     38        17
Averaged less than 90 ERA+/OPS+                19               8
Averaged ERA+/OPS+ of 90-99                        37              16
Averaged ERA+/OPS+ of 100 or greater      133           59

The average ERA+/OPS+ for many of the players considered in this analysis were negatively affected by relatively poor debut seasons. To address whether the highly ranked prospects develop into above average ML performers, I used the ERA+/OPS+ for each player’s best season to evaluate the same 229 players as above. In this case, 181 of the highly-regarded prospects (79% of the 229 considered) posted at least one season with an ERA+/OPS+ of 100 or greater, revealing that 4 out of 5 highly ranked prospects post above average seasons within their first 1-3 years in the major leagues.

Splitting the prospects into pitchers and position players reveals that of the 110 pitchers who qualified for this analysis, 82 (75%) have posted at least one season with an ERA+ above 100 and 89 of the 109 position players (82%) have posted an OPS+ above 100. At least for the seasons considered here, there appears to be a slightly better chance that highly ranked hitters will turn into above average major leaguers than pitchers.

Success/Fail Rates Correlate with Prospect Rank
When the prospects are considered based upon where they were ranked, a very interesting trend is revealed. As noted in the table below, more than 90% of the pitchers and hitters ranked among the Top25 graduate to the major leagues and post above average numbers. Approximately 80% of the pitchers and hitters whose ranking topped out in the 26-75 range posted an ERA+ or OPS+ of greater than 100 in at least one of their first three seasons. The successful graduation rates for pitchers and hitters falls to 69-75% for prospects ranked among the bottom 25.

Ranking    ERA+ >100 (Total pitchers)    OPS+ >100 (Total hitters)
Overall                     75% (110)                                  82% (109)
Top25                      91% (31)                                    94% (40)
26-50                       79% (27)                                    80% (30)
51-75                        82% (27)                                   82% (19)
76-100                      69% (25)                                   75% (20)

The discrepancy in the success rates for the Top25 and Bottom25 prospects appears to be a reflection of the types of players that fall in the two categories. The Bottom25 in the Top100 lists are heavily populated with very young players in the lower minors while the Top25 mostly comprises players at AA and up. In fact, many of the players who made up the Top25 in the latter years used for this analysis were among the Bottom25 in the earlier rankings. Because I only used the highest ranked position for each player, the success rates for the lower ranked brackets were reduced relative to what they would have been had I used the numbers for each player in each of the years that he was ranked.

Annual Major League Performance
Of the prospects who graduate to the major leaguers, I was curious to know how well they perform in their rookie major league seasons and how much they improve during the course of their first five seasons. As with the success/fail rates above, I looked at this subject in two ways. Simply averaging the OPS+/ERA+ for all of the players with qualifying major league team reveals that the ranked prospects as a group start off as slightly above average major leaguers and progress to significantly above average producers by their third seasons (see table below).

                  Avg ERA+/OPS+ (StDev)
   Yr 1           Yr 2            Yr 3      Yr 4          Yr 5
103 (32)     108 (32)    115 (30)     112 (28)      119 (31)

The standard deviations shown in parentheses above are relatively large, revealing that there is a broad range in performance among the players. In contrast to the success/fail rates described above, the variance in performance cannot be explained by differences between the players ranked among the Top25 and the players ranked farther down on the list. In fact, there is almost no difference between the major league performances of the players ranked in the Top25, 26-50, 51-75, and 76-100. Instead, the bulk of the variance is due to differences in OPS+ between players at defensive positions (SS, 2B, C, CF) and players at offensive positions (1B, DH, 3B, COF) as well as differences in the ERA+ of starting pitchers and relief pitchers. Below is a breakdown of the annual performances of players at the various positions.

                                           Avg ERA+/OPS+
Position   Players Yr 1    Yr 2    Yr 3    Yr 4    Yr 5    3 Yr Avg 5 Yr Avg ML Avg
1B/DH          16        109     131    126     126      122         122        123        115
2B                10          88       97     105      91       129   96           102           96
3B                17        103     109     108     131     145         107           119         109
C                  14          88       97      102     113   113          96            103           86
CF                15          87   90      104      96   121         94          99            97
COF             33          99      103     112    100    109       105        105          109
SS               11          80        91   88     99        87          86             89             94
LHP             24   103   116     107     91       NA          109            NA
RHP            70         106      106     112    121     129     108        115
Reliever     16         157      141     172    151       NA        157
The reliever category was created to account for the late inning relievers whose ridiculous ERA+ numbers skewed the pitcher data. NA is used where too few players were available to provide an accurate estimate of performance.

The final three columns show the averages for the prospects at each position during their first 3 and 5 seasons along with the major league averages for the players at the corresponding positions during the 2007 season. For the most part, the prospects play slightly below the league average for their position during their rookie years. The prospects then out-perform the league average for most positions beginning in their 2nd year seasons and continue to improve thereafter.

Top Prospects to Star Major Leaguers
Top prospects are often projected to be future major league stars. To estimate how often this happens within the first five years of a top prospect’s major league career, I used the annual ERA+ and OPS+ for players who accrued major league service and calculated the percentage that posted great #’s (>119), above average #’s (100-119), below average #’s (80-99), and poor #’s (<80).

ERA+/OPS+     Yr 1      Yr 2      Yr 3      Yr 4       Yr 5
     >119            23%      27%    42%      36%     46%
100-119          29%      32%    26%      31%     24%
    80-99          28%     26%     18%      25%     19%
      <80              20%     15%     13%       8%      11%

Beginning with their rookie years, the performance levels of highly ranked prospects are close to equally distributed between the four performance classes used. The performance distribution skews toward above-average levels by the players’ second seasons and is profoundly above average by their third seasons. Perhaps the most noteworthy number in the table above is the one that shows that 42% of the prospects who are ranked among BA’s Top100 and who manage to get to the major leagues post an ERA+ or OPS+ of 120 or greater in their third seasons. If you want to know where star major league players come from, look at BA’s lists of the Top100 rated prospects in baseball.

What does this mean for the Rangers?
Barring trades involving Ranger prospects or young major leaguers, it is possible that a future Rangers team could feature eighteen players who appeared on at least one BA Top100 list (table below). Using the results presented above, these current and future Rangers could be expected to perform in the major leagues at the levels presented in the right-hand column. As noted in the “Likelihood” column, there is a very good chance that most of these players will one day become at least solid major league players.

Player            Projections:   Highest BA Rank     Likelihood    ML OPS+/ERA+
Andrus                      18                94%               89
Smoak                                             Top25                      94%               123
Davis*                                              Top25                    100%       123
Beltre                                               Top50                      80%          99
MaxRam              Top50                      80%       103/123
Teagarden             77                         82%                  103
Borbon                                            Top100                    75%                    99

Feliz                                                  Top25                91%                  108
Holland                Top25                91%                  109
Main                 Top25               91%       108
Perez                    Top25                  91%                 109
Ramirez             Top50                  79%                 108
Font                                                  Top50                  79%                 108
Diamond                    52                          82%       157
Hurley                     68                  82%       108
Harrison                   90            69%                 109
Beavan                Top100            69%                 108
Boscan                   Top100              69%                 108
* Davis’ inclusion is based on his likely ranking had he not been pushed to the major leagues in 2008.
The “Highest BA Rank” is either the highest rank that a prospect has already achieved or my estimates for high highly a player will be ranked during their minor league career.
MaxRam has two numbers in the OPS+ to address whether you think he will hit like a catcher or a 1B/DH.

Assuming the players reach the minor league ceilings projected above and the minor league players advance through the minors at a rate of 1-2 levels per year, then the 2011 Rangers line-up, rotation, and bullpen could look like:

Lineup                 ML Season      OPS
Kinsler (2B)           6th              125
Young (3B)              11th              100
Hamilton (RF)          5th               130
Smoak    (1B)    2nd               131
Davis (DH)           4th                126
MaxRam (C)    4th                126
Murphy (LF)              5th    100
Borbon (CF)             3rd          104
Andrus (SS)             2nd                 91

Rotation             ML Season   ERA+
Holland                    3rd   107
Feliz                         2nd                 106
Main              2nd      106
Harrison                 4th                    91
Hurley           4th                   121
McCarthy                6th   100

Bullpen      ML Season ERA+
Francisco(?)          7th                  130
Madrigal                 4th                  120
Wilson                    6th
Diamond               2nd                 141
Rupe                      4th
Hunter                   3rd
Strop                      3rd
Kiker                      2nd
Feldman                6th
Murphy                  2nd

By 2011, Beltre, Perez, Boscan, Beavan, and others will likely be at AA or AAA and ready to step in if needed. A great offense coupled with above average pitching almost certainly equals playoff contention.

What is an ace worth?

spurdynasty — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 13:10:57 -0000

It started with Sabathia and Sheets. Cain, Greinke, and Nolasco followed. Most recently, Peavy has been discussed as a possible acquisition target for the Rangers this off-season. Each of these pitchers is undoubtedly a better bet to pitch well in 2009 than anyone on the Rangers current 40-man roster. However, each of these pitchers will come with a significant cost. Signing either of the free agents will require the Rangers to use 20-25% of their annual payroll on a single player. The four trade targets would likely require the Rangers to give up 3-4 quality prospects or young, inexpensive major league players. Which begs the question – What is the value of an ace? Or put another way, does having a legitimate #1 starter affect a team’s chances to contend for a playoff berth?

To address the question of whether an ace increases a team’s chances of reaching the playoffs, I used data from the past five seasons to determine the correlation between teams with aces and teams that made the playoffs. Identifying the aces was a bit tricky since there’s not a clear definition for an ace. I wound up selecting two classes of aces – those who have ranked among the top pitchers in their league for several seasons and those who ranked among the league leaders during the season being assessed. The former group included pitchers like Halladay and Webb while the latter class included pitchers like Matsuzaka and Lincecum who have only recently ascended to acedom.

The Perennial Aces
To identify pitchers who are consistently among the league leaders, I used ERA+ to rank AL and NL starters with at least 100 innings pitched for the 2003-2008 seasons. 20 pitchers finished in their league’s Top 20 in at least three of the six seasons that I evaluated (Halladay, Sabathia, Buehrle, Clemens, Cook, Hamels, Kazmir, Lackey, Lowe, Oswalt, Santana, Schmidt, Sheets, Smoltz, Peavey, Hudson, Carpenter, Mussina, Webb, and Zambrano). The primary problem with this list is that injuries and occasional bad seasons make these perennial aces less than stellar in some years. In fact, only Halladay, Santana, Oswalt, Webb, and Zambrano posted an ERA+ greater than 115 in each of the 6 seasons used for this analysis. To account for this issue, I dropped pitchers from this list for the seasons that they pitched fewer than 100 innings or posted an ERA+ that was league average or worse.

Annual Leaders
The second group of “aces” used for this analysis included the ten starters who pitched at least 100 innings with an ERA+ that was among the top ten for the league in which they pitched. There were ten different lists of annual leaders (2 for each league for each of the five years used in the study). The annual league lists included pitchers from the perennial aces list as well as Greinke, Lincecum, Hernandez, Lee, Volquez, Lester, Guthrie, and others.

For each of the two groups of aces, I asked a simple question: What percentage of playoff teams and what percentage of non-playoff teams during the past five years had an ace on their staff. One would assume that great pitchers or pitchers having great seasons would improve their team’s record and thus improve their team’s chances of making the playoffs. If true, the net result would be that the percentage of playoff teams with aces would significantly outpace the percentage of non-playoff teams with aces. Surprisingly, the percentage of playoff teams with at least one ace of either category only slightly outpaced the percentage of non-playoff teams with an ace on-staff for each of the five years used for the study (see below). The average percentages for the five years for playoff vs non-playoff teams were 53% vs 49% for the teams with perennial aces and 60% vs 47% for the teams with annual leaders.

                                                                         2004    2005    2006    2007    2008
Playoff teams w/perennial aces             37.5%    75%     37.5%    75%     37.5%
Non-playoff teams w/perennial aces    45%      45% 59%      30%      45%

Playoff teams w/annual leaders              50%   62.5%   50%    62.5%    75%
Non-playoff teams w/annual leaders    45%      50%      50%      45%      45%

These data reveal that having an ace is neither necessary nor sufficient for a team to make the playoffs. Furthermore, it appears that having an ace on staff does not substantially improve a team’s chances to make the playoffs. Because I was surprised by this result, I reviewed the records of teams that have the best pitchers in baseball in games started by their aces and compared it to the same teams’ records in games started by everyone else. As noted in the table below, teams are better when playing behind great pitchers, but the difference is rarely sufficient to change a team's playoff fate. Presumably, that is why there is only a slight enrichment of aces on teams who make the playoffs.

Team/Pitcher              Record in games w/ace    Record in other games    Overall
BlueJays/Halladay         21-13                                          65-63           86-76
Angels/Lackey                       15-9            85-53                   100-62
Cubs/Zambrano                   20-10                77-54                     97-64
Astros/Oswalt                       20-13               66-62                     86-75
Mets/Santana                       22-12                   67-61           89-73

One compelling argument that has been made in favor of adding an ace is the benefit that a team receives when they make the playoffs. Teams typically go to 4-man staffs and thus an ace has an opportunity to impact 25% or more of the games in a 5 or 7 game series. Using the same five pitchers as above, is there data to support this argument? Though the number of games for each of the pitchers is relatively small, there does not appear to be a particularly strong correlation between regular season dominance and post-season success (see table below).

Pitcher        GS     ERA    Record        Team Record
Halladay       0
Lackey          9      3.39       2-3                   4-5
Zambrano 5      4.34   0-2                   1-4
Oswalt          7      3.66       4-0                   4-3
Santana   5      3.97       1-3                   2-3

Curious about the regular season and playoff impacts of the six pitchers that have been the source of various Rangers fans’ obsessions? Below are the 2008 regular season and career playoff records of Sabathia, Sheets, Cain, Greinke, Nalasco, and Peavy.

Player      2008 record w/ace    2008 record w/others    Playoff- Starts ERA Rec
Sabathia               22-13                                   ??                                         5   7.92 2-3
Sheets                  18-13                                 72-59                                     0
Cain                       14-20                                58-70                                      0
Greinke                 16-16                                59-71      0
Nolasco                21-13                                63-64      0
Peavy                    12-15                                 51-84                                      2    12.10 0-2

What is an ace worth? An extra 3-5 wins per season for an average to above average team; less for a below average team. If those 3-5 wins cost you two or three young players with all-star ceilings and/or 20-25% of your payroll, I have a hard time seeing how a smart, medium payroll team can justify the expense.

Jamey's Latest Top 20 Rangers Prospects

spurdynasty — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 13:51:29 -0000

I just noticed that Jamey has updated his Top 20 list and was disappointed to find that the list wasn't being discussed here. For those of you who have not seen the latest list, you can find it here: http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081015&content_id=3621969&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex

Noteworthy changes in the list include Holland at #1, Smoak at #3, and Kiker down to #15. Teagarden and Hurley have been added back into the mix.

Jamey, I apologize if you planned to post a note later or if you preferred that your list not be posted here for a discussion thread.