I love this part of the season. No matter how bad the team has been (and boy has it been bad), I can still hope for certain things to break our way and turn our team into a contender. They're pipe dreams for the most part, but I entertain them just the same. I look at our squad now and I'm watching and hoping for the following (in order of some combination of optimism/desire for it to happen):

1. Wall makes the leap and proves himself to be a legit franchise player.

2. Blatche comes to camp in shape and focused and maintains the last two season-end performances for a whole season, giving us our answer at PF and/or making his contract a valuable asset.

3. Singleton shames at least a half-dozen teams by proving himself to be a stellar defender and capable-all around player, even as a rookie. Becomes the obvious solution at SF.

4. Javale settles down and bodies up and becomes our answer at center, disrupting other team's offensive schemes with his defensive play around the rim. He improves his defensive rebounding and develops two deadly post moves which capitalize on his insane length and vertical.

5. Crawford improves tremendously on his rookie campaign with much better shot selection and overall improvement, demonstrating clear all-star potential and giving us the best two guards from the 2010 draft.

6. Nick Young returns and improves on last year by rounding out his game and becoming a noteworthy defender, earning serious all-star consideration.

7. Shelvin Mack steps in from day 1 as our backup PG and proves himself to be a very good NBA player, a hard-nosed defender and shot-maker. He wins at least two games for us with clutch play at the end.

8. Veseley shocks everyone by being a stellar all-around player and winning rookie of the year.

9. Booker develops some range and gets comfortable with the SF position, transforming himself into a very valuable Artest-type player.

10. Lewis reverts to form among an improving group of youngsters and plays a crucial role in pushing us through to the second round of the playoffs.

And I haven't even mentioned Seraphin, Mason, Owens, N'Daiye, Turiaf or potential signings. Obviously all of these things can't happen, but any one of them COULD happen, which is why this is such a fun part of the season for me. By the new year, at least some of these dreams will already have died, but for now, I have hope!

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Because I think it's interesting, I thought it'd be a good idea post the results of the draft pick polls before the Wizards draft position is set.  According to BF, this is the prospect depth chart for the Wizards (democratically chosen):

1. John Wall: 79 of 103 votes; 79% (Next most votes: Turner 22, Cousins 2)

2. Evan Turner: 85 of 100 votes: 85% (Next most votes: Cousins 12, Favors 2) 

3. DeMarcus Cousins: 44 of 87 votes: 51% (Next most votes: Favors 32, Johnson 9)

4. Derrick Favors: 52 of 87 votes: 60% (Next most votes: Johnson 25, Aminu 4)

5. Wesley Johnson: 45 of 83 votes: 54% (Next most votes: Aminu 16, Aldrich 6)

6. Al-Farouq Aminu: 17 of 59 votes: 29% (Next most votes: Aldrich 11, Montiejunas 7)

7. Greg Monroe: 12 of 43 votes: 28% (Next most votes: Aldrich 11, Montiejunas 7)

8. No vote, but Cole Aldrich is nearly tied with Monroe for 7th and got several votes at higher picks, so I'll put him here. 

Clearly our opinions diverge at pick #3. In some bad news for the GM, if the Wizards get a pick below #5, the majority of BF readers (and probably Wizards fans) won't be happy with any pick unless one of the guys we'd pick higher falls.  I actually agree with this order, with the exception of Monroe -- I don't think he's worthy of a top 8 pick, but I've been wrong before.  Picking third would be tough -- Favors didn't stand out at all when I saw him play in college, but scouts love him and Cousins has all those red flags to go with his ridiculous production.  I like Johnson's game, but you have to wonder how much the extra years help him in comparison to everyone else (an advantage that disappears over time). 

On a random side note, I know a lot of you really like Maryland's Vasquez for the Wizard's later picks.  I looked into him a little and discovered that in last year's combine he displayed the worst athleticism I've ever seen from a guard.  Among all players measured, he was the second-slowest (slower than Blair), weakest (he could only bench press 185 lbs once), and had the worst vertical (standing and max). To top it off, despite his height being respectable his wingspan was 2.5" (that's a lot!) shorter than Rodrigue Beaubois' (who's 6'2" in shoes), and his standing reach is 2.5" lower than James Harden's (6'5" in shoes).  He's made the most of his potential in college, but he's going to make 2009/10 Mike Miller look like Michael Jordan when (if) he plays in the NBA.  He might be able to hold his own on offense, but he's going to be a huge liability on defense.  This is not a guy I'm eager to see in a Wizards jersey.

Okay, I thought it would be fun to give everyone the chance to make the picks -- I'll try to include the reasonable options I think have a chance of being available where the Wizards might pick (which is 1-7), while removing prospects in the order they are projected to go on DraftExpress's mock draft.  You guys make the call!  

Preferably everyone will make their own decisions here...don't go based on mock drafts or popular opinion (or especially my picks), just base your selections on who you think will be best for the Wizards, while considering: 1) What you've seen of the players themselves, 2) Things you've read (Rook's scouting reports have been great, and DraftExpress has my favorite assessments of draft prospects), 3) Anything else you want to consider besides other people's opinions about draft order. 

The polls will keep score, and then we'll see how we did as a group next year.  Sadly, only one question can be posted per FanPost, so I'll have to put 7 of these up.

** With the win tonight, this pick is more relevant.  The good news though is that the Wizards are still more likely to pick 1st than 7th.

Off the Board:  Wall, Turner, Cousins/Favors, Johnson, Aminu.

Okay, I thought it would be fun to give everyone the chance to make the picks -- I'll try to include the reasonable options I think have a chance of being available where the Wizards might pick (which is 1-7), while removing prospects in the order they are projected to go on DraftExpress's mock draft.  You guys make the call!  

Preferably everyone will make their own decisions here...don't go based on mock drafts or popular opinion (or especially my picks), just base your selections on who you think will be best for the Wizards, while considering: 1) What you've seen of the players themselves, 2) Things you've read (Rook's scouting reports have been great, and DraftExpress has my favorite assessments of draft prospects), 3) Anything else you want to consider besides other people's opinions about draft order. 

The polls will keep score, and then we'll see how we did as a group next year.  Sadly, only one question can be posted per FanPost, so I'll have to put 7 of these up.

Okay, I thought it would be fun to give everyone the chance to make the picks -- I'll try to include the reasonable options I think have a chance of being available where the Wizards might pick (which is 1-7), while removing prospects in the order they are projected to go on DraftExpress's mock draft.  You guys make the call!  

Preferably everyone will make their own decisions here...don't go based on mock drafts or popular opinion (or especially my picks), just base your selections on who you think will be best for the Wizards, while considering: 1) What you've seen of the players themselves, 2) Things you've read (Rook's scouting reports have been great, and DraftExpress has my favorite assessments of draft prospects), 3) Anything else you want to consider besides other people's opinions about draft order. 

The polls will keep score, and then we'll see how we did as a group next year.  Sadly, only one question can be posted per FanPost, so I'll have to put 7 of these up.

Okay, I thought it would be fun to give everyone the chance to make the picks -- I'll try to include the reasonable options I think have a chance of being available where the Wizards might pick (which is 1-7), while removing prospects in the order they are projected to go on DraftExpress's mock draft.  You guys make the call!  

Preferably everyone will make their own decisions here...don't go based on mock drafts or popular opinion (or especially my picks), just base your selections on who you think will be best for the Wizards, while considering: 1) What you've seen of the players themselves, 2) Things you've read (Rook's scouting reports have been great, and DraftExpress has my favorite assessments of draft prospects), 3) Anything else you want to consider besides other people's opinions about draft order. 

The polls will keep score, and then we'll see how we did as a group next year.  Sadly, only one question can be posted per FanPost, so I'll have to put 7 of these up.

Okay, I thought it would be fun to give everyone the chance to make the picks -- I'll try to include the reasonable options I think have a chance of being available where the Wizards might pick (which is 1-7), while removing prospects in the order they are projected to go on DraftExpress's mock draft.  You guys make the call!  

Preferably everyone will make their own decisions here...don't go based on mock drafts or popular opinion (or especially my picks), just base your selections on who you think will be best for the Wizards, while considering: 1) What you've seen of the players themselves, 2) Things you've read (Rook's scouting reports have been great, and DraftExpress has my favorite assessments of draft prospects), 3) Anything else you want to consider besides other people's opinions about draft order. 

The polls will keep score, and then we'll see how we did as a group next year.  Sadly, only one question can be posted per FanPost, so I'll have to put 7 of these up.

Okay, I thought it would be fun to give everyone the chance to make the picks -- I'll try to include the reasonable options I think have a chance of being available where the Wizards might pick (which is 1-7), while removing prospects in the order they are projected to go on DraftExpress's mock draft.  You guys make the call!  

Preferably everyone will make their own decisions here...don't go based on mock drafts or popular opinion (or especially my picks), just base your selections on who you think will be best for the Wizards, while considering: 1) What you've seen of the players themselves, 2) Things you've read (Rook's scouting reports have been great, and DraftExpress has my favorite assessments of draft prospects), 3) Anything else you want to consider besides other people's opinions about draft order. 

The polls will keep score, and then we'll see how we did as a group next year.  Sadly, only one question can be posted per FanPost, so I'll have to put 7 of these up.

Okay, I thought it would be fun to give everyone the chance to make the picks -- I'll try to include the reasonable options I think have a chance of being available where the Wizards might pick (which is 1-7), while removing prospects in the order they are projected to go on DraftExpress's mock draft.  You guys make the call!  

Preferably everyone will make their own decisions here...don't go based on mock drafts or popular opinion (or especially my picks), just base your selections on who you think will be best for the Wizards, while considering: 1) What you've seen of the players themselves, 2) Things you've read (Rook's scouting reports have been great, and DraftExpress has my favorite assessments of draft prospects), 3) Anything else you want to consider besides other people's opinions about draft order. 

The polls will keep score, and then we'll see how we did as a group next year.  Sadly, only one question can be posted per FanPost, so I'll have to put 7 of these up.

Continue reading this post »

We've all been thinking and talking about this, so I thought I'd take the time to lay it all out.  Looking at the contract situation, there are five guys the team is definitely getting back (Arenas, Young, Thorton, Blatche, McGee). That's it.  Then there's Quinton Ross, who has a player option which he'd be foolish not to take. That means the Wizards have the following roster spots committed, by position:

PG: Arenas

SG: Young, Ross

SG: Thorton

PF: Blatche

C: McGee

At a minimum, the Wizards need to have 13 players on the roster. There are several guys that the Wizards have the option of keeping/adding next year.  Those are:

• Randy Foye, Josh Howard, Vladimir Veremeenko, Emir Preldzic. 

Then there are the unrestricted free agents that the Wizards have on the roster, and could potentially sign next year:

• Mike Miller, Fab Oberto, Earl Boykins, James Singleton, Mike Harris, Shaun Livingston.

In addition, the Wizards have three draft picks in the 2010 NBA Draft. (Something like 8th, 30th, and 38th).

Putting this all together, the Wizards have to consider the following options next year to fill 7 to 9 open roster slots, not counting signing other teams' free agents:

PG: Foye ($4.8M), Livingston, Boykins

SG: Howard ($11.8M), Miller

SF: Harris, Preldzic

PF: Singleton

C: Oberto, Veremeenko

TBD: 3 draft picks

First, let me state what I hope is obvious.  Howard will not be worth $11.8M next year, recovering from a career threatening injury.  Taking that option would only make sense if you hoped to use it in a trade (I don't see how that helps when we're under the cap, but maybe I'm missing something). Also, resigning Oberto on this team doesn't make any sense.  He contributes nothing, and is declining.  I'm betting that Miller won't be interested in returning to the Wizards.  In addition, Veremeenko and Preldzic are unlikely to be playing in NBA games next year.  Finally, even though I could see the Wizards doing it, I'd argue that re-signing Boykins would be idiocy.  That leaves Singleton, who I think the Wizards should re-sign, Foye, whom the team should make a qualifying offer to, and two complete unknowns in Livingston and Harris.  Now I have this:

PG: Arenas, Foye, Livingston (?)

SG: Young, Ross

SF: Thorton, Harris (?)

PF: Blatche, Singleton

C: McGee

TBD: 3 draft picks (~$4M)

It would take approximately $40M to pay these players, with 13 roster slots filled, and two potentially available to use on smart free agent signings.  I'd really want to trade Arenas, but for now I don't know how that's going to happen, so to keep the conversation manageable I'm assuming that's not happening before next season begins.  The glaring needs for the draft and free agency are for a starting SG, and a starting or backup C.  Upgrades are needed at every position but PF, and even there we could use more depth.  What can be accomplished with the remainder of this season is figuring out whether Livingston and Harris are worth signing next year.

So the question I'm left with is how do we use those picks, and who might we sign in free agency?  For the sake of argument, I'm assuming Harris and Livingston are worth keeping on the roster at the league minimum, and will each be useful as third-stringers. 

• Draft:  With the lottery pick, Cole Aldrich could be the center the team needs, or Al-Farouq Aminu could solve the SF/PF depth issues. James Anderson looks like the best SG prospect that will be available.  Then the team should use the later picks on a big banger and a guard.
• Free Agency:  Look for bargains on younger guys that fill needs.  Maybe a guy like Craig Smith if front-court depth is still needed.  Maybe nab Anthony Morrow from the Warriors if he can be had relatively cheap (the Wizards definitely needs a shooter).
  

To me, that puts the team in great position moving forward, with good pieces to make a move to build a long-term contender after the new CBA.  Here's my (enormously speculative) proposed roster:

PG: Arenas, Foye, Livingston

SG: Morrow, Darington Hobson, Ross

SF: Thorton, Harris, Young

PF: Blatche, Singleton, Smith

C: McGee, Aldrich, Aaric Murray

For something like $48M, leaving some cap space to facilitate in-season trades.  That looks like a very interesting 35-win team that would get significantly better even without the additional draft picks and free agent(s) that would be added the next year.  The elephant in the room is Arenas and his contract, but that's a conversation for another day.

I know everyone is aware that the near future is bleak for the Wizards, and that deals need to be made.  The debate isn't over whether the Wizards should try to make changes, it's over what the Wizards should be willing to accept to make those changes.  Those differences come from varied opinions of what our players are worth, and what the consequences of of not making deals are.  I'd like to lay out the consequences of making no deal, and give my opinion of what we should expect to get for our "assets". 

First, consider this, the status quo for the next two years:

2010/2011
Arenas
Young/Stevenson
Butler
Jamison/Blatche
McGee

This lineup alone puts the Wizards over the projected salary cap of $52M.  Add one first round pick, a second round pick, and a few minimum contracts and the Wizards are close to the luxury tax for a team that might win 30 games.  The Wizards won't be able to sign any of their own worthwhile free agents, let along other teams'.

2011/2012
Arenas
--na--
Jamison
Blatche
McGee

These four players (basically Arenas and Jamison) put the Wizards at $40.3M, with a projected cap somewhere below the $52M I'm estimating from the previous year.  Now we add two first round picks, maybe one MLE and more minimum free agents and we're once again over the cap. This team probably wins 25 games (unless we get lucky with one or both draft picks).

So then Jamison retires or leaves, and we have three 7th-12thish first round draft picks and a bunch of crap to finally START building around, with a very talented but no-defense, terrible-attitude point guard still on the books for insane money for two more years.  This is the future we should all want to avoid in the worst way.   But what should we expect to get for our current players?

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I believe we saw the Wizards progress beyond the point of no return in bizarre fashion tonight.  For a roster of players who lost 60+ games last year to start 7-14 is already back-breaking, but to get there by giving away a game that seemed to be in the win column in dramatic choking fashion at home to a bad team without it's best player playing the second night of a back-to-back despite a triple-double from your star and 30 points from your PF because your best player can't hit free throws?   Woo boy, that's amazingly bad.   That's hokey movie-script bad (complete with the stars of the other team being goofy-looking white guys). 

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This isn't necessarily specific to the Wizards, but it's important for this team considering their current roster as the team contemplates how long they should give their current roster to "win-now".  My past experience following players has told me that players decline faster than conventional wisdom seems to indicate. I think John Hollinger may have actually sorted this out already, but I can't find his age trajectory published free anywhere so I don't know for sure. So, I tried compiling some data to figure this out on my own.  I figured out that this is a bit more complicated than I originally thought.  However, in the end the data clearly indicated that players peak at ages 25-27, and decline significantly after age 30.  I'll explain why below the jump.

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Okay, this may not make me the most popular guy on this site, but I have to get something out of my system, and it's going to require more writing than can be contained in a reasonable-length comment.  Let me say up front that I like Haywood for this team (after years of wishing we had someone better, he finally won me over in 2007/8). However, I think the pro-Haywood faction on this site has gotten carried away.  Here I'll try to bring perceptions a bit closer to reality (i.e. my perceptions) by addressing a few of the arguments I've been reading on the site about Haywood's supremacy, and offer what I think is a good plan for dealing with Haywood's pending free agency.

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I put some of this on a comment yesterday, but it was on a post that fell off the front page an hour later, so I doubt many people saw it.  Because I put some effort into putting the numbers together, I figured I'd go ahead and try posting this separately. Forgive me if you've seen this already.

I've heard (or rather, read) that a lot of fans are giving up on Blatche. I think that’s premature. Blatche has improved every year. That includes last year in my opinion -- I think some of his stats took a hit because he was playing more against starters, but his passing and ball handling SKILL seemed improved (I'm not talking about decision-making -- that's what I hope he improves next -- I just mean skill) .  That's just my opinion based on watching him play, but his assist and turnover numbers back me up.  Below the jump I provide statistical averages for high school-to-NBA players.  These numbers suggest that we should expect to see continued improvement from Andray.

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