St_louis_cardinals_ce1141_003263

stevesommer05

  • joined Jul 18, 2009
  • last login Aug 14, 2013
  • posts 37
  • comments 362
User Blog

Some numbered game open thread. Cards and Brewers

533

Hopefully the pitching will be better than last night.

Some Albert Observations

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Some quick observations on Albert Pujols using Pitch F/X data.

K-Mac and His Bullpen Replacements

723

Yet another look at Kyle McClellan's future as a starting pitcher

Cards Starters and Velocity

424

Analyzing the effect of different fastball velocities on the Cardinals starting pitchers

PAH9: Scouts and Stats

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Inspired by a lot of the discussion in TPGs recent posts detailing mechanics and the pushback from some stats guys; I looked at ways that the stat community could better leverage the scouting community.

Quick Aging Study

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I'm a baseball guy trying my hand at a little hockey analysis. This likely falls short of the work that Gabe has already done on aging, but it does have a new wrinkle in that I look at ATOI. It's all done using the delta method with no correction for survivor bias yet.

Colby, Fastballs and Pitch FX

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Colby, Fastballs and Pitch FX

Adam Wainwrights Curve

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I did a guest post at VEB using Pitch FX to break down Waino's curve

Anatomy of a Curveball

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Anatomy of a Curveball - Examining Adam Wainwrights Curve With Pitch FX

Quantifying the Impact of Defensive Uncertainty

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Trying to get my mind wrapped around the recent discussion on the uncertainty of fielding metrics

Bigger version here. The ranges represent the rank order of players by RC (i.e. 1-3 are the top 3...

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Rc_by_range_2

Bigger version here. The ranges represent the rank order of players by RC (i.e. 1-3 are the top 3 players for that team in current RC). I personally thought the Rockies breakdown was interesting. Another, probably more useful, chart would be to rank by preseason projection (instead of current RC) and see how the percents change

ESPN Isider TMI: Pujols' "Struggles"

9

I have an article up on the ESPN.com TMI blog (Insider subscription required) that deals with Pujols not exactly being Pujolsian. Of course I wrote this the morning of the 2 HR game, so he's hit 3 since it's writing.

Full 5 Year Projection Data

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Here's the full 5 year data behind the BtB 50 best series for all of the players that CHONE projected before the season. Would the community be interested in having something like this that is interactive? Have it where you can change the players wOBA and Defense and his 5 year WAR automatically changes?

I realized I didn't properly explain the data I posted yesterday (thanks to a couple of readers). ...

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I realized I didn't properly explain the data I posted yesterday (thanks to a couple of readers). The data is the top ~150 position players and ~100 pitchers. It's not the top 250 players (Have to wait a bit on that as I recreate the data). There are some position players that were better than the top 100 pitchers, but not included in the list. Sorry for the confusion.

BtBs 50 Best of the Next 5 Years: Wrap Up

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Summary stats from the BtB 50 best of the next 5 years, and your chance to impact next year's addition.

BtBs 50 Best of the Next 5 Years - Intro and Methodology

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The methodology behind choosing Beyond the Boxscore's 50 best players of the nest 5 years.

Justin Morneau is sporting a wOBA right around 0.500 and plate discipline may be the driving...

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Morneau

Justin Morneau is sporting a wOBA right around 0.500 and plate discipline may be the driving factor. With that in mind I again steal an idea from Dave Allen. The red squares mean more swings in 2010, blue means less. Bolded numbers on the periphery are the pitch fx location values. The chart is from the catcher's perspective.

My attempt at a poor man's Dave Allen chart. It's 2010 swing percentage - 2009 swing percentage...

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Pujols

My attempt at a poor man's Dave Allen chart. It's 2010 swing percentage - 2009 swing percentage for Albert Pujols. Red means more swings, blue less. Full article here at PAH9.

Mariners at Rays BtB Series Preview

15

A Saber slanted preview of the Mariners - Rays Series

Yanks vs Sox Preview and Discussion Thread - Updated

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Hey folks, right now this is mainly a placeholder for a series preview post that will be finished up after my little one goes to sleep tonight.  I'd like to start a thread like this each week where...

Updating Playoff Probabilities - CHONE

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So the title is a little misleading as I never got around to publishing the preseason CHONE based playoff probabilities.  That being the case you get a two for one on new information today, both...

Tango's Playing Time Survey

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Tango is asking fans to fill out a community playing time projection for their teams. If you want to help out and haven't already, click the link above.

A Couple of Questions for Sig Mejdal

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Sig Mejdal, the lead quantitative analyst for the Cards was kind enough to answer a few questions about his job for me over at PAH9. Thought the readership here would be interested as well.

A Couple of Questions for Sig Mejdal

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Sig Mejdal, the lead quantitative analyst for the Cards was kind enough to answer a few questions about his job for me over at PAH9. Thought the readership here would be interested as well.

Playoff Probabilities Simulation - PECOTA Edition

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With some of the projection systems also coming out with projections of the standings now's probably a good time to attach some playoff probabilities to the projections.  I'll start with PECOTA. My...

BtB Sabermetric Writing Award Results: Best Sabermetric Research or Writing Website

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  One of the beauties of the sabermetric community is the ongoing dialog amongst the vast majority of contributors.  In that context, the community needs forums to have that dialog,...

Experimenting With Clustering - Offense

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  This post originated out of me asking myself, "Self, if you were going to delve into the world of projecting offense, how would you go about it?"  My answer was that I’d take a basic Marcels...

Free Agent $/Win Based on Playoff Probability Added

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  There has been a lot of discussion this off season dealing with spending relative to where a team is on the win curve.  My goal here is simply to do some back of the envelope math to set some...

FanPost
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Sabermetric Primer (an assortment of links)

In a thread yesterday there was a request for a sabermetrics primer, so I thought I'd take the lazy way out and just link some of the extraordinary work people have done in other places.  I'll...

The Braves Off Season - Playoff Probability Edition

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  The Atlanta Braves have had a busy (and sometimes controversial) offseason as they revamped their bullpen, subtracted an arm from their surplus of starters, and picked up a few average-ish bats. ...

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