SB Nation User Blog: stickman179

The 2010 Draft: How Many Picks can the Cards Have?

stickman179 — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 00:20:36 -0000

After reading Fourstick's excellent fanpost on the Cards future payroll obligations and the subsequent discussion, I found myself wondering about what kind of compensation could be heading the Cardinals way in the 2010 Draft. I'm not very familiar with the whole process, but I think I have a good grasp on it after doing some research. If I happen to miss something or make a mistake somewhere I'd appreciate the feedback. Here are the links to the sites I will be referencing in the post:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/free-agent-comp.html - This is an old post but it does a nice job of stating the rules for the draft compensation of free agents.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/elias-rankings.html - This post is a projection of Elias player rankings up to July 12th. Obviously these rankings can change and are just a projection, but it is a nice starting point for looking at the 2010 compensation possibilities.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/stats-used-for.html - This post gives a rundown of the stats used to compile the rankings.

Any salary information is taken from Cot's baseball contracts.

Matt Holliday - The controversial acquisition and free agent to potentially be. Assuming Holliday isn't extended before reaching free agency, which I think is a safe assumption, he will be a Type A free agent. His current projected score is 89.59 which would give him the highest score of any free agent. This means that even if he is signed by a team that signs another Type A free agent, the Cardinals would still receive the highest pick possible from that team. You may remember this past off season the Brewers were screwed out of the Yankees first round pick because Teixeira had a higher score than Sabathia. That can't happen to the Cards as long as Holliday's score remains at it's projected level.

Needless to say the Cardinals will offer Holliday arbitration. I'm not going to discuss the finances of him accepting, Fourstick has done a nice job with the money aspect already, I just want to look at the draft picks. After Holliday rejects arbitration and signs with another team the Cardinals will receive 2 draft picks as compensation. A first round pick (as long as Holliday signs with a team picking 16-30 overall, otherwise it becomes a 2nd round pick) and a supplemental round pick. Of the teams that are currently in the bottom 15 and therefore picking between 1-15 there are only a few that may make a run at Holliday. The Mets being the strongest possibility. I would think though, that outside of the Mets, the real contenders for Holliday would be picking in that 16-30 portion of the draft.

So the draft pick haul; a late first rounder and a supplemental pick.

Mark DeRosa - DeRosa's situation isn't quite as clear cut. According to the projections DeRosa is on the brink of being a Type A free agent, however he falls just short with a 69.39 score. Should he remain as a Type B free agent the Cardinals would receive a supplemental pick as compensation.

I think that it is possible that he could play himself into a type A free agent. Since his outfield reps will be limited with the Cards, his reps at position will go up and that along with his production should push him into the type A class. If DeRosa does reach type A status it could be an interesting off season. I think it would be easier for the Cards to re-sign him if he were to become a type A as the team signing him would have to consider the cost of losing the draft pick. This past off season non elite players saw their value on the free agent market reduced by being type A free agents. Perhaps this could allow the Cards to re-sign him for less than if he were a type B free agent.

For potential draft impact lets assume he plays his way into Type A and he walks. Due to DeRosa's versatility and age he will be one of the most sought after commodities on the market. This will also be because of his cost. He could be an impact signing that won't break the bank. This allows for many more teams to be potential suitors making it difficult to project where he may end up. Combine that with the fact that if he does become a type A free agent, he will be one of the lowest ranked type A players. This is impactful because any team that signs him and another Type A free agent, DeRosa would have the lower score and therefore the Cards would get a lower round pick as compensation. Due to all these factors, I would not count on receiving a first round pick for DeRosa should he walk in the off-season.

What I consider to be the most likely pick compensation would be a 2nd round pick (possibly a 3rd) and a supplemental pick.

Troy Glaus - This is a strange case. Because the rankings are based on the previous 2 years stats, Glaus is still a type A free agent in the projection with a 82.97 score. As time passes without him being on the field his score will shrink. It is possible that he could remain a Type A free agent.

There are lots of options for the front office here. The most important decision will be whether or not to offer him arbitration. I believe this decision will depend heavily on what happens with Holliday and DeRosa. lboros and fourstick had an excellent discussion in the comments of fourstick's fanpost. I don't want to rehash. Basically though, I can't imagine any situation where the Cards offer Glaus arbitration and he doesn't accept it. I can't imagine he would test the market after losing a year to injury at his age and expect to receive more than the 80% of his current contract that would be the minimum from accepting arbitration.

Final conclusion, no matter what free agent type Glaus is, the Cards will not be in a position to receive draft compensation.

Rick Ankiel - Ankiel has a score of 59.32 and is clinging to type B free agent life. Depending on if his current hot streak is a sign of things to come and the playing time situation in a crowded outfield, I'm not sure he holds onto this ranking. If he were to stay as a type B it would be an interesting decision on whether or not to offer arbitration. Again, this I think will depend on what happens with Holliday, but considering he isn't breaking the bank now, and I can't foresee a significant raise, the Cards could offer him arbitration. Due to Boras being his agent there is at least a decent chance that he would reject the offer. That could potentially net the Cards another supplemental round pick.

Compensation or no? I think this one is 50/50 on him keeping the ranking and declining arbitration. Can we get half a draft pick?

Joel Pineiro - According to the current projection Joel is not a type A or B free agent. However, if he continues to pitch well he should easily pitch himself into the type B range. His current score sits at 56.944 with the lowest B rated player being Brett Myers 58.088. He should be able to break through that threshold.

I think if he does become a type B free agent the Cards would almost have to offer him arbitration. If I am Joel Pineiro don't accept an arbitration offer. I think he is making himself a lot of money with the way he is pitching this year and this is his chance to cash in.

Compensation: A supplemental round pick.

Todd Wellemeyer - Welle comes in at 68.954 score and ranked as a type B free agent. Even with how bad he has been pitching, it should be pretty easy for him to hold onto his ranking. It seems like Tony will keep throwing him out there, so he will continue to pile up GS, INN and K, which will allow him to remain a type B free agent despite being pretty terrible this year.

How he finishes out the year will dictate what the Cardinals do with Welle. If he doesn't turn it around enough to appear to have value, I don't see anyway the Cards offer him arbitration. If he does turn it around, the Cards could offer him arbitration and run the risk of him accepting. I really can't imagine Welle not accepting arbitration if it's offered. Would he be able to get a 4 mil/yr contract on the open market? I don't see it happening, but stranger things have happened.

Draft compensation: I'd say a 5% chance of getting a supplemental pick out of it, but most likely nothing.

Trever Miller - Miller carries a score of 61.745 and a type B ranking. He is pretty firmly entrenched in the type B range and was a type B free agent last year (although he wasn't offered arbitration and his option was declined). From the Cardinals point of view this one should be pretty easy. Offer him arbitration and if he accepts great, he's still a relatively cheap and excellent LOOGY. If he rejects, well that's fine too as he would bring back a supplemental round pick.

Draft compensation: I think he'll probably be a Cardinal again next season, but if not a supplemental round pick is nice compensation for a low cost LOOGY.

Ryan Franklin - There is no way the Cardinals don't pick up his option, but on the chance that some paper work gets messed up or something, I'll take a look at it. Franklin has a score of 67.603 and would be a type A free agent. He is very close to the Type A/B cutoff. His ranking will only continue to climb though as he continues to rack up saves. There is very little chance he would fall to a type B.

None of this matters though, as the only way he would become a free agent would be for the Cards to decline his option. They would not decline the option and then offer arbitration. It would be foolish, because if Franklin accepted, he would be awarded more money than his option is worth. The only way they could possibly offer him arbitration would be if they pissed him off so much that he never wanted to pitch for the Cards again, and they knew that. If that's the case, then they would receive a supplemental pick and either a late first round or early second round pick. I would tend to think that it would end up being a second round pick because Franklin would be the kind of guy a bad team would sign. None of that matters though because the Cards are picking up his option.

Draft compensation: None in 2010, but it could be real interesting what happens for 2011.

That takes care of all the potential free agents that have the possibility of becoming Type A or B free agents. Worst case scenario, all these guys leave in a realistic fashion and this is what the cards end up with:

2 First round picks (their own, Holliday)

4 Supplemental Picks (Holliday, DeRosa, Pineiro, Miller) +the possibilty of a 5th from Ankiel.

2 Second round picks (their own, DeRosa)

That's 8 picks in approximately the first 80 picks (assuming the number of supplemental picks is about the same as in 09). That's a nice way to restock the system. Also, if the unthinkable happens and the Cards don't sign Shelby Miller, there would be another first round pick for compensation there. I don't want to talk about that though.

I have no idea what next years draft talent looks like. I'll leave it up to the future redbirds people to talk about that stuff.

Defense!!

stickman179 — Sat, 16 May 2009 14:04:36 -0000

There has been a lot of gnashing of teeth over the Cards defense so far this season, and I wanted to take a look at just how bad, or not bad it's been. I consider defense to be about run prevention, so I'm not going to look too much at individuals but the team as a whole. Lets see how good we are at preventing runs and how we compare to the rest of the league in various catergories.

These stats are as of May 15th and were taken from or created from information on fangraphs.

The first part of run prevention is pitching. You can't judge the defense on run prevention without first knowing the pitching base line of the equation. FIP is the perfect place to start. So how are the Cardinals pitchers doing from a fielding independent stand point?

They have a 4.28 FIP which is good for 7th in the major leagues. By using this stat as a baseline and comparing it to a few other stats we will be able to determine where the cards defense stacks up against the rest of the league.

How does FIP compare to Runs/Game (R/G). Well, the Cardinals are giving up 4.51 R/G for a difference of .23 R. So we are giving up mpre runs than what FIP would indicate. How does that stack up with the rest of the league? The difference between FIP and R/G (R-F) is the 13th best in baseball. So middle of the pack. Only 8 teams have a R-F that is below 0. Or where the R/G is lower than FIP.

Now, it seems that we are in the middle of the pack as far as defensive run prevention goes, but lets take a deeper look into a couple of catergories that help determine run prevention and see if we are getting lucky or unlucky.

Range and Errors are the 2 main contributing factors to defense effectiveness. First lets take a look at Errors (E). Now we all know the cards have made a bunch of these. 26 to be exact, and that number ranks them 26th in the league. But have those errors hurt the team by leading to runs scored and if so, how does that unearned run rate compare to the rest of the league.

The cards have committed 26 errors which have lead to 16 unearned runs. That total unearned run number also ranks 26th in the league. If you turn that number into a percentage, or the probability that an error will lead to a run, then for the cards it means 62% of the time an error will lead to a run. (Now, I realize that it isn't a true one to one ratio, and that one error can lead to multiple runs, but for simplicity and not having to go back through game data to see how many errors led to runs, this will have to do.) How does that percentage rank against the rest of the league? The Cards come in at 16th. Middle of the pack. The league average is 57% however the range is quite large. The Phillies lead the league at only 20% of their errors hurting them, and the Orioles have been hurt the most by errors with 87% of them leading to runs.

Next lets take a look at range. For this I'm going to use UZR/150. I know this isn't just a range stat, that is takes into consideration other factors, but it's the easiest to use to measure overall performance. The Cards come in at a -3.9 UZR/150 which is good for 23rd in the league. Not so good.

The contributing factors to the defense, errors and range don't look to good right now as the cards are in the bottom third of both. However, as that translates to run prevention we are doing ok being basically middle of the pack in that regard. However, when comparing that to the top third pitching numbers and it becomes clear that the defense is hurting the team.

Can we expect an improvement or is this going to be a season long problem? Looking at the contributing factors, Errors and Range, I think these numbers will improve as the year continues. Especially in the error department. 11 of the 26 errors have been made by Albert and K. Greene. Both of those guys have reputations as solid defensive players and I don't expect this many errors from them going forward. Especially, if K. Greene is losing playing time to Ryan or T. Greene who both appear to be + defenders. So that is one area for optomism. As far as range goes, well, I think the only candidate for improvement there is Skip at 2nd. He's still learning, and I think we should be encouraged by his progress. Yes his range is awful right now, but he's making the routine play and if he gets to it, he makes the play. As he continues to grow, his range will improve and lets just hope he continues to make all the plays that he gets to.

What do I take from this? I think the cards have played poor defense to this point, but it hasn't cost them quite as much as it could have, and there are reasons to believe that the defense will improve from this point forward. So, perhaps, the team has dodged a lead glove bullet. Hopefully that's the case.

Here is the complete chart that all the info was taken from.

Team	G	R	R/G	ERA		FIP		E-F		R-F		E	UER	error/run ratio	UZR/150
Pirates	34	147	4.32	4.16	4.76		-0.6		-0.44		15		10	67	2.8
Brewers	35	151	4.31	4.11	4.58		-0.46		-0.27		21		9	43	8.1
Phillies	32	173	5.41	5.36	5.67		-0.31		-0.26		10		2	20	5.8
Rangers	34	168	4.94	4.64	5.09		-0.45		-0.15		19		11	58	6.1
Dodgers	36	137	3.81	3.73	3.95		-0.22		-0.14		16		4	25	-7.6
Reds	34	147	4.32	3.95	4.46		-0.51		-0.14		29		12	41	5.3
Athletics	31	136	4.38	3.82	4.46		-0.64		-0.08		21		13	62	1.8
Cubs	34	157	4.61	4.48	4.63		-0.15		-0.02		19		7	37	-3.3
Giants	34	148	4.35	4.21	4.29		-0.08		0.06		15		5	33	4
Rays	36	178	4.94	4.85	4.84		0.01		0.1		22		9	41	14.5
Blue Jays	37	166	4.48	4.1	4.34		-0.23		0.14		18		12	67	2.3
Mets	34	150	4.41	3.95	4.26		-0.31		0.15		24		16	67	-1.6
Cardinals	35	158	4.51	4.1	4.28		-0.18		0.23		26		16	62	-3.9
Mariners	35	165	4.71	4.27	4.35		-0.09		0.36		29		16	55	5.2
Diamondbacks	35	168	4.80	4.6	4.44		0.16		0.36		27		8	30	2.8
Royals	35	147	4.20	3.79	3.81		-0.03		0.39		21		17	81	0.4
Astros	34	173	5.09	4.68	4.66		0.02		0.43		17		11	65	1.3
Tigers	33	161	4.88	4.51	4.42		0.09		0.46		18		15	83	3
Rockies	33	164	4.97	4.72	4.51		0.22		0.46		21		12	57	0.5
Angels	33	162	4.90	4.53	4.42		0.11		0.48		20		14	70	-1.5
Braves	34	150	4.41	4.03	3.87		0.16		0.54		20		14	70	-3.7
White Sox	33	158	4.79	4.66	4.24		0.42		0.55		23		8	35	-8.4
Red Sox	35	179	5.11	4.88	4.55		0.33		0.56		23		9	39	-6.9
Padres	35	183	5.23	5.04	4.63		0.41		0.6		16		12	75	0.2
Twins	35	186	5.31	5.19	4.68		0.51		0.63		13		7	54	2.2
Orioles	35	208	5.94	5.52	5.29		0.24		0.65		23		20	87	-7.5
Marlins	35	172	4.91	4.47	4.24		0.23		0.67		23		16	70	-3.1
Yankees	34	202	5.94	5.53	5.18		0.35		0.76		20		15	75	-5
Indians	36	206	5.72	5.62	4.95		0.67		0.77		19		8	42	-5.7
Nationals	32	202	6.31	5.46	5.13		0.33		1.18		34		26	76	-8.3